When Will The Recovery Begin? Never
The so-called "green shoots" of recovery are turning brown in the scorching summer sun. In fact, the whole debate about when and how a recovery will begin is wrongly framed. On one side are the V-shapers who look back at prior recessions and conclude that the faster an economy drops, the faster it gets back on track. And because this economy fell off a cliff late last fall, they expect it to roar to life early next year. Hence the V shape.
Unfortunately, V-shapers are looking back at the wrong recessions. Focus on those that started with the bursting of a giant speculative bubble and you see slow recoveries. The reason is asset values at bottom are so low that investor confidence returns only gradually.
That's where the more sober U-shapers come in. They predict a more gradual recovery, as investors slowly tiptoe back into the market.
Personally, I don't buy into either camp. In a recession this deep, recovery doesn't depend on investors. It depends on consumers who, after all, are 70 percent of the U.S. economy. And this time consumers got really whacked. Until consumers start spending again, you can forget any recovery, V or U shaped.
Problem is, consumers won't start spending until they have money in their pockets and feel reasonably secure. But they don't have the money, and it's hard to see where it will come from. They can't borrow. Their homes are worth a fraction of what they were before, so say goodbye to home equity loans and refinancings. One out of ten home owners is under water -- owing more on their homes than their homes are worth. Unemployment continues to rise, and number of hours at work continues to drop. Those who can are saving. Those who can't are hunkering down, as they must.
Eventually consumers will replace cars and appliances and other stuff that wears out, but a recovery can't be built on replacements. Don't expect businesses to invest much more without lots of consumers hankering after lots of new stuff. And don't rely on exports. The global economy is contracting.
My prediction, then? Not a V, not a U. But an X. This economy can't get back on track because the track we were on for years -- featuring flat or declining median wages, mounting consumer debt, and widening insecurity, not to mention increasing carbon in the atmosphere -- simply cannot be sustained.
The X marks a brand new track -- a new economy. What will it look like? Nobody knows. All we know is the current economy can't "recover" because it can't go back to where it was before the crash. So instead of asking when the recovery will start, we should be asking when and how the new economy will begin. More on this to come.
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182 Comments so far
Show AllAl that anyone who commented on this article, can do if they please is GOOGLE, YOUTUBE THE EMPIRE "OF THE CITY" PART II....
AND if you watch the 200.minute movie, you will find out where this all started and who controls our FUTURE. EVERYBODY SHOULD KNOW THE TRUTH;
Thank you for the link. This movie is VERY recommendable.
Have you read this:: “Collateral Damage” by E. P Heidner, part I and II.
>>> www.scribd.com/people/documents/2169400-ep-heidner <<<
A different look at the same abomination.
Do you own furniture? If you do, hang on to it as the Chinesse are now taking over the American furniture companies that have been having their furniture made in China. Furniture made in China by Chinese companies will be cheap,(affordable) and will be junk. The furniture industry in America was an admirable manufacturing endeavor that provided thousands of jobs for American men and women providing many areas of related manufacturing, including the textile industry. Mr. Clinton hasn't the slightest notion of the number of people who have been directly or indirectly affected by his glamorous decision to market free trade. He singlehandedly undermined the manufacturing base in this country to the point where there isn't much left to outsource, except maybe for munitions manufacturing. A nation of war mongering manufacturers supplying the world with self destruction. Hellofajob, Bill.
Or maybe it is time to revisit the Code of Hammurabi and the concept of 'Jubilee', as is recited by millions everyday in the Lord's Prayer..."forgive us our debts, as we forgive our debtors"...every 49 years there was a complete forgiveness of debt, occupied lands were given back to the original owners, slaves could bargain for their freedom, etc....it's all in Leviticus , I don't know how it would work, only that it COULD work, IF the profit motives were taken out of our existence for sometime to simplify and heal and we have to go on survival mode, in cooperation, for the sake of the planet and any future for mankind. But maybe we've run our sad and misguided ego driven course, will soon be extinct and earth will heal on it's own.
Very good comments. No one has pointed out that feral Oligarchies of inherited wealth have never, not in 6000 years, ever needed a consumer economy for them to RULE with absolute power. Never. Throughout that same period, a literate majority middle class with leisure time has been the arch enemy of every Ruling Caste that has ever existed: literate people with leisure can become informed (not to say educated), informed people with leisure wish to participate in the decisions affecting their lives and the lives of their children - CANNOT BE ALLOWED...that's the death of Oligarchy...White America decided that one 40+ yrs ago when they voted for a full on return to "Exclusion" as the standard model for American life when 49 states (87% White Majority) overwhelmingly elected RMN 2x...you will notice that American wages began to flat-line or decline back in '73...beginning of the end...and now we're here. Think ramshackle Cuba without National Health Care and millions of illiterate, hungry, white males with guns...boom boom boom...won't that be fun...
There's a corollary to Reich's article: The old approach to stimulating a recovery - go into debt to employ people at anything that will not create consumer products, because that creates demand to permit reinvestment in production at a sufficiently profitable level that the newly-acquired debt can be paid off, will be counterproductive. Why? Because if the problem is not just too little consumer wealth but too much stuff (e.g. too many expensive single-family homes), you end up in the same place as you were before. You can't create a new economy by encouraging investment in the old one - that just produces a new pile of debt to hold you down. The stimulus can be effective only to the extent that it invests in the new economy. Thus, for instance, the only part of the Obama stimulus package that will help is the "green" part. Those parts that stimulate production of what we have too much of aready, will be counteproductive, as for instance, stimulus of the market for new single-family dwellings will be counterproductive. Unfortunatey, the counterproductive parts are the only parts that the "old economy's" businesses can support. Hence the petty-much-inevitable weakness of the Obama recovery package.
Moreover, in the present situation, the new economy is in all probability going to have to be a no-growth economy - payig off debts requires a growth margin that can be used to do so, so going into debt just exacerbates the future problem. In the present situation, going into debt is what got us whre we are, and going into more debt is not going to get us out.
Nick Arguimbau
Actually, I'd prefer a XXX economy
Aw, come on. All we need is a few more of the right events to to create a succession of economic booms:
> A string of celebrity deaths followed by extended commercial memorial services will make the travel, hospitality and entertainment industries go BOOM.
> Obama's election created a big boom in the firearms and ammunition industries. We gotta keep electing dangerous minorities to keep going BOOM.
> Nothing goes boom like war. But Iraq-Nam is turning into into a big letdown & Afghanistan-Nam isn't selling well. How about we liberate Canada and Mexico from the radical Basque-Hindu conspiracy and corner a few more petro resources for Exxon-Mobile. Nothing to it: update the 9-11 script, pick a few big buildings & BOOM!
> Dismal & declining health care accelerates the death rate. Gravesite shortages are creating a black market for new plots. Where's the boom potential? Crematoria! Build them ovens, honey and don't miss the spinoff in urns. BOOM!
See, all we need is less of Robert Reich running around telling the truth and more of the positive, uplifting P. T. Barnum approach. Rush is on board.
Excellent!
Our financial system is cancerous and greed never self-polices. Our politicians are corporate or religious prostitutes. Our citizen's civic IQ is low and further dampened by the escape drugs of pop culture/entertainment and pro-sports. Our governments' revenue-generating mechanisms rob nearly every worker and consumer on nearly every action and ignore something that is co-created by nearly every citizen -- the unimproved value of land.
It looks like most of us reading Reich's post get it. The time isn't right yet, but this kind of awareness probably needs to incubate into local leadership because we are going to need civility, trust and operative bartering systems at the local level. If we can't maintain local law and order through self-reliance and participation....
I believe the solution is as simple as a return to the progressive tax structure and regulation imposed between 1930 and 1980. This is about relearning the lessons of the past, with a renewed desire to not have to repeat it again. But I don't think you will ever successfully legislate away the 'impulse to power'. It's part of the human condition.
There Is No Alternative
"To what?"
"Our rising up en masse."
"And then what sort of world?"
"It'll be up to us."
"Otherwise?"
"Doomsday."
"Based on?"
"Perpetual war + global warming + economic collapse."
An alternative is for us to rise up en masse and demand land, 2-1/2 acres per family, to maintain in perpetuity, and therein create sustainable natural life, ala specific suggestions by Anastasia in the Ringing Cedars series, nine books that make a lot of things clear(er) and provide an answer to our planetary crisis. Reading can be the initiatory process...
Recovery???
"Abandon all hope, ye who enter here".
The U.S. Government has crafted a distortion of reality. They have found a way to cover up 85% of the nation's actual debt!
The Feds essentially keep two sets of books that make up America's debt portfolio. The first set of books is the widely publicized "National Public Debt." The National Public Debt is currently over $11 trillion and is climbing at a rate of almost $4 billion per day. This is the figure that's quoted in the evening news and on the famous U.S. National Debt Clock in Manhattan. In the past century, this debt has skyrocketed nearly 400,000%.
But the National Public Debt doesn't even come close to telling half of the story.
The U.S. Government Is Another $60 Trillion in the Hole!
The U.S. government doesn't classify future financial responsibilities such as social security, government-sponsored health care, and other contractual obligations as "public debt." With this simple act of reclassification the Feds have been able to shield the American public from the truth about the country's actual debt position. Nevertheless, these financial obligations will cost the American taxpayers roughly $60 trillion!
This debt is no secret among Washington insiders, nor is the fact that the government is trying to hide it. In fact, David Walker, the former U.S. Comptroller General and the nation's top accountant between 1998 and 2008 said, "As the federal official who signs the audit report on the government's financial statements, it is apparent that our government's financial condition is far worse than advertised."
Walker has also said, "Current federal financial reporting and budgeting provides policymakers and the public with an incomplete and even misleading picture."
Add it all up, and the United States government is on the line for almost $70 trillion in total financial obligations, including public debt.
This is today’s scenario. Lets look at what’s coming:
The U.S. Government Accountability Office released a new report a few weeks ago called "The Federal Government's Financial Health." In this report, the GAO reported an expected increase in National Public Debt of over 500% within the next several decades! And this is the U.S. government's own estimates!!!
A similar move in the nation's actual debt — that's the National Public Debt plus all other fiscal responsibilities — would result in a total financial obligation of over $550 trillion! That's over $1.8 million that would be owed by every American citizen!
But back to the present: America's current $70 trillion debt works out to about $500,000 per working American or to put it differently, every American child is born into debt owing nearly a quarter million dollars! The interest on that debt alone is going to cost almost twice as much as educating the child!
And here is the most interesting bit: the blame for this swindle cannot be attributed to one party, Democrats or Republicans, but is rooted in the whole system.
Democracy, in it’s current form, is the tyranny of a few cunning circles with controlling and omnipotent lobbies and mass media propaganda, that use the ignorant majority ‘mandate’ of the voting masses for their treacherous agenda. The two-party oligarchy manages the profit and wealth flow for a relatively small elite. Most pivotal parts of this machine are tightly interwoven and are made out of the elite’s cronies and benefactors of this abominable theft and fraud. Their lobby established a two-flavored (Dems and Reps) system that plays ping-pong with citizens’ votes, draining all chance for a desperately needed radical change of ways (And if you deny that a radical change of ways is desperately needed, you are ignorant or part of this morose parasitic machine).
This system has been able to keep the voting masses in a state of acquiescence and convenient ambivalence. Common lifestyle was provided by loan, education is geared around producing useful subjects rather than freethinking individuals, the masses were kept occupied with inane entertainment, silenced by welfare payments and war games, manipulated by corporate controlled mass media, and preoccupied by hope-inducing wishful hogwash that we have a choice under this system.
The system is unsustainable for various reasons and will undergo drastic change. The severity and direction of change depends on the severity of lifestyle destruction, economic depression and public mood.
(second part below due to the 1000 word limit)
This drastic change (change you should believe in) will cause a reaction of governance. This reaction will be martial law and ACTION against civil disobedience. Kiss the constitution good-bye.
Government leaders are either part of the ‘gang’ or are bought or are impotent to initiate change. Protectionism works for the banksters and against the people.
And this is how it will unfold:
The increasing financial and economical world misery will hurtle into hyperinflation. There will be no more ‘cycles’. THIS is it. The world will end in a colossal depression similar to 1921/23 with similar political and social consequences.
We will see national and international revolutions emerging. Revolutions need a certain level of discontent. This level will certainly be reached but the question is, will this level be powerful enough to overcome the considerable protectionism and policing the System has organised itself behind. It will be an all-out battle with political strongmen and national governments emerging, battling maybe for substantial time but likely succumbing to The System, because The System is in control. At the core of this control lies the monetary system built on debt and interest.
Why on earth would anyone want to create a situation like that?
World hyperinflation will not be able to be recovered from by individual states like Germany did in the 1930s. This time the whole world is infected and affected. It will be a construct unleashed which will gather unstoppable dynamic and trajectory. The consequence: a total obliteration of economical, financial, social and political structures where people will (have to) abandon sovereign states in favour of a concerted effort: a One World Governance. It will be governance, NOT government! At that stage democracy will long have been abandoned by martial law.
And who is the ‘gang’ who’s pulling the strings?
A relatively small group is head of this psychopathic endeavor. Psychopathic yes, but abominably clever. Tools were created in astonishing collaboration. And yes, it IS a conspiracy. A network with various hidden lines of command was created, allegiances formed, powers implemented, promotions granted, kinfolk gathered and objectives expanded. This constitutes The System, a system that is “too big to fail”.
How did they do it?
Here at home Democracy was perverted to blatant Lobbyism.
Abroad, the ‘Free’ World promoted democracy as an export product to the ‘oppressed’ world, as a saviour for citizens, as a requirement for ‘freedom’ (to consume). This missionary ideology made sense in light of the seemingly colossal progress of the First World (which in hindsight it was built on a bubble), especially compared to the socialistic or communistic charades of Stalin and Mao. Now (apart from some uncomfortably pesky resistance against the ‘democratic’ opening for globalisation), the world is the gang’s oyster. Consumerism after all is mankind’s demise.
Want to know a bit more about this?
Be warned, it will be a horrifying look behind the curtain:
Read ‘Collateral Damage’ part I and II
>>>www.scribd.com/people/documents/2169400-ep-heidner<<<
Yachtie - nice breakdown of where we are now and where we are heading. I am not entitlement-minded and not 'progressive' (whatever the hell that means anymore) and am a strong proponent of not sugar-coating the reality. I fear we have long since passed the point of no return and the only possible option right now is to hunker down, buckle up in our own respective communities and live sustainably (as in, sustainable in the context of a slowly self-destructing world as we know it. Not that replacing your lightbulbs bullshit or whatever they are promoting nowadays.).
Cheers!
I AGREE PLEASE GOOGLE UTUBE "THE EMPIRE OF THE CITY PART II" AND WATCH THE LONG VERIZON.
Thanks for the suggestion -- I will watch it. Already, I went to the website where the documents, themselves, are available, but I didn't have the time to actually dig into them and take notes. I am an obsessive note-taker.
It seems to me that our congress, House of Representatives and the Senate, as well as Barack Obama, and his administration, are in management mode, rather than taking on the roles of leadership that we so desperately need.
Within the past several months, I have watched several rather chilling documentaries on Google Video, including The Century of Self and The Plan.
Last night, I watched Michael Haneke's 2003 film, The Hour of the Wolf. After an unknown apocolyptic event, the characters set out on journeys of survival. In no way does this film mirror anything Hollywood makes. It is chilling. Mr. Haneke is quite a provocative German/French filmmaker. His 1993 film, 71 Fragments of a Chronology of Chance is, today, eerily relevant.
yachtie,
Excellent rant, although, if you keep posting this kind of hard truth, you will frighten the entitlement-minded Progressives here forcing them to declare you completely insane and begin the name-calling.
Have a GREAT day and keep up the good work!
Thank you.
Well, as you see, there is not much feed-back of the "entitlement-minded Progressives", which is rather an oxymoron. Either one is entitlement-minded and then you cannot possibly be a Progressive (at least with a brain) or you are a Progressive (I dislike those labels) and then one damn well realizes that 'entitlement' is coming to a grinding halt.
If the hard truth is to frightening to acknowledge then reality will be even worse.
And yes, I will keep up the good work. We ain't got a chance but use it.
A new economy demands a new politics, which means dumping representative democracy and going for the real thing, namely, direct or do it ourselves democracy, rendered feasible now by way of the Internet. How are we going to bring it about? We rise up en masse, that's how. Otherwise? Doomsday, based on perpetual war + global warming + economic collapse.
Geeze if we ousource all our jobs, can it be that people will have no money to buy anything? Those on Wall Street are still doing OK--feel better now?
Eisenhour was not permitted to say "The Military Industrial Congressional Complex" He may have been the last patriotic Republican.
Damn right there will never be a recovery, because there is no more cheap oil, the world is grossly overpopulated, democracy (a rather dubious concept) has been replaced by corporate rule. Corruption in the norm in government. The majority of the American people are fat stupid ignorant lazy greedy unreliable and irrational. The country is ruled by and *owned by* sociopaths, where lying cheating stealing and killing (?) are standard business procedures.
And gw bush *was* as close to fascism as we have gotten so far!
"God damn you, god damn you all!" Charleton Heston "Planet of the Apes
G Evans
Obama is pulling off the biggest Ponzi scheme in history. The 300 million rubes are falling for his bull hook line and sinker. We actually think that the Amerikan people are getting what is coming to them. It is really strange that the people will stand for this. Of course by the time they finally figure it out it will be too late.
The empire builders are not only taking over the world by force of arms. They are taking over the USA without a shot being fired. Can't afford health care give me a break.. The amerikans all ways need some one to look down on but soon there will be no one left to look down on and they will have to look up to the rich masters and beg for a little some thing.
Put a smiley face on the flag and call it good.
erclone -- when you said "the empire builders......they are taking over the USA without a shot being fired.."...
it reminded me of that line by "senator" Amedala in the final installment of the 6 STAR WARS movies..Revenge of the Sith..
where the self-proclaimed "Emperor" - senator Palpatine - revealing himself as the Sith Lord - had all the senate applaude his proclamation: "henceforth the republic shall be RE-ORGANIZED into the FIRST GALLLAACCTIIC ...EMPPIIIIIRRREE....for a PRosperous and SEcuuuuuurrrreee......Socieehhtyyy!!!!"
and Amedala watching from the corners quips:
"so -- this how democracy dies....with thunderous applause"...
JUST LIKE THE UNITED STATES "voting" its emperors and their factions representing the USA"s "star wars" versions of such factions...ALL of them applauding the "great united states".....just like the way nazi germany democratically applauded fascism....just like the USA applauding itself for being able to "recover" from yet another crisis of its own making ...always leading ever closer to more and greater misery.
this Empire by "democratic" consensus..both by leadership and people.
and when the "people" REALIZE - bit by bit - what a rotten little project it really has been and continues to be .......
the SITH have already taken over..complete with "storm troopers"....from their own police , to their NSA and CIA and FBI, to their "airport and transportation security"...right down to "subway and bus security" - and soon enough :
"where are you going? youre route is from your house at such and such address to such and such work place address ONLY"...
it will soon enough be FAR , FAR WORSE than ALL the tyrannical "rogue" regimes or "enemy" countries the USA pointed fingers at - if for no better reason than that the USA is FIRST and greatest in having the MEANS and the Cultural acclimatization to practice it with such TOTAL control.
and there will be NO LUKE SKYWALKER or "rebel alliance" to save ameriKKKA from itself..
it will just sink into utter depravity and cruelty.
of this - i am almost convinced is what will happen.
The rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer. If that not recovery I don't know what it is.
Fred54 wrote:
.....Mr. Reich is correct, the economy cannot recover because it is not sustainable as it was.....
Correct.
Fred54 wrote:
.....Military will intervene. The American people will then see what the Patriot Act is really all about.....
Yep.
Reich is dead-on, sad to say.
I am looking forward to his next installment.
Let's demonstrate! Hit the streets! Fight the man! People Power! ...just as soon as we finish here...
Mr. Reich is correct, the economy cannot recover because it is not sustainable as it was. There is a way to repair this mess bloodlessly but the people who actually run the government will not allow it because it impacts them financially. 4 steps; abolish the Fed returning the issuance of credit to the people, end foreign imperial wars and reduce military spending by 70 or 80% , reduce the size of government and pass a constitutional amendment prohibiting government from borrowing. It MUST live within it's means. Finally, replace the income tax with a national VAT or consumption tax. Unfortunately these things won't happen so the following things will. The US dollar is going to be destroyed and along with it pretty much all accumulated wealth denominated in US dollars. We are in the initial deflation period right now but that will become an inflationary spiral within the next few years. As the spiral takes hold there will be a worldwide run on the dollar. In an instant all sorts of products we take for granted will no longer be available. The media will no longer be able to project the illusion that all is well. There will be a spark somewhere in the form of some civil disobedience. The
Military will intervene. The American people will then see what the Patriot act is really all about. They will then realize how badly they have been betrayed by their government. The government will try to distract and confuse and deflect but the cold hard facts of what has been done to Amerika by these criminals will be inescapable. What happens next will be critical. Rebellion will begin. What the military does will determine the next phase. If the military turns it's guns on the people there will be a long and protracted civil war. If the military sides with the people there will be a short revolution. The civil war will probably leave the US broken up into 4 or 5 pieces. The revolution will likely restore the constitutional republic.. Lets hope for the latter.. In the mean time recommend long positions in canned goods, gold and ammunition.
i believe that you are prescient. all the writing is on the wall towards that.
this is like the "DEATH STAR" imploding on itself.
Benjamin Franklin did say :
"Democracy eventually ARRIVES at Tyranny". that is of course what is happening to the USA. by the Fascist Path.
A book called 'The Long Emergency' by James Howard Kunstler described what we are going through and it was written many years ago. It is excellent reading. Basically he says that we will be thrown into recession by rising prices for oil and that the recession would then cause oil prices to drop. Obviously he got that part right. But every time the world starts to climb out of recession the price of oil will rise again throwing us back into another recession. And as oil is more and more depleted the recessions will in fact get worse. He even comes up with the absurd idea that people who are in desperate straights will again resort to piracy on the high seas!
All you people who have been programmed to believe that we must compete in the Global economy have been drinking to much of
George H W Bush Kool-aid..
It was Bill aka Bubba Clinton who gave us Nafta and outsourced
our industrial base to China and other countries. It is Bubba Clinton
who is raking in millions of Dollars from Foreign countries
for his nest in Arkansas...
Until the people wise-up to the Clintons and the Bush family
who are responsible for this Depression that we are in, we
will dig in deeper in the depression..never to return.
We must re-build our industrial base and restore our economy.
The Clintons should be investigated for what they have done
to this country, and the Bush Family sent into exile..
Freddie,
You forgot to mention cowboy Ronnie who started the cascade by deregulating everything in sight and encouraging hostile takeovers. The "President's Plunge Protection Team" was created under his administration as well.
Exiled? NO! Drawn and quartered.
I fear that Mr. Reich is far too optimistic about economic recovery. The US government is approaching $15T in debt, has promised as much as $75T for what is hard to call anything other than "public largesse", added to which is an economy leveraged ten times greater than the national debt. Literally more than $150T in leveraged debt. This is unconscionable, inconceivable and unsustainable.
Traditionally, the Democratic party adjusted problems in this post-WWII easy credit economic experiment with government growth and inflation. The Republican party adjustment was with tax cuts and ever increasing growth in "productivity". But neither of these tools will function any more. The ability to create money with leverage out of thin air cannot continue. Thus, either these nonsensical promises must end, or the money offered for them will be hyperinflated and worthless.
In national terms, this means an end to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, a reduction in the Defense budget of 50% as well as the recall of the majority of foreign deployed military, an equally large reduction in the size of the federal government, and a return to the individual States a balance of power with the federal government. It also means defaulting on the national debt, close to an end of international trade for decades, an involuntary balanced surplus, and the rebuilding of American industry.
And only in the last are the seeds of recovery to be found. Importantly, any and all of the above will not be voluntary, but forced by progressively more vicious economic collapses. The best the federal government can do will be to try and mitigate human suffering. At the end of this mess, credit will again require nearly 100% carefully assessed collateral, at all levels.
Comparisons to the Great Depression are partially flawed in this case, so further study should be made of the Panic of 1837, and the Panic of 1893, both of which have common elements with our current dilemma.
...
duplicate deleted
Great post, but Please John Binte,
Continue, will you?
The 1929 crash was preceded by a fake real estate bubble just like this one. Why are the Rothschild induced panics of 1837 and 1893 more relevant?
Thank you,
TJ
"All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent." - Thomas Jefferson
the funny thing to me :
many years ago , long before the "dot.com" implosion and before i really started to read up on history and economics - i used to argue with friends who are/were in the "economics" business: hotshot management , banking, finance...majors in college - and being a mere layperson - i just opined to them certain things i ONLY felt or suspected were the case, telling them basically:
"that wall street you all so brag about? that's probably not just a den of thieves...it's likely all about PHANTOM VALUE, PHANTOM Economics, make-believe prosperity , and it's all about manipulation to make it appear as if it's what the free-market blesses everyone who is "responsible"....and it will all come crashing down like a pack of cards one day ...there's just something about all this that america brags about as the be-all and end-all of civilization as so UNNATURAL and RIGGED...even if I am the last person to explain it".
of course - not only I - but millions more suspicious of it all - turned out to be right and the "masters of the universe" as well as their accolytes and fellow wanna-bes - are the ones that are WRONG...at BEST - and at WORST - knowingly UNethical and immoral.
of course i couldn't come close to knowing details or the esoteric matters --and they kept laughing at me for being "out of the league"...
i think nowadays - most americans STILL CLING to the idea that "america is SO great and SO resourceful that it will find a way to FIX things" ....
EXCEPT that the elephant in the room is the ONE thing these kinds of "believing" americans or those that are so FAITHFUL in the dogma of the free-market - or capitalism - because they can still somehow CLING to HOPES that the kind of prosperity and "american dream" kind of LIFE they HAVE, their foreparents enjoyed and HOPE their children can enjoy - is still "operative" .........
and that elephant in the room they WON"T admit to :
CAPITALISM IS DYING. and is reaching probably its last stages of SLOW SELF_IMMOLATION -- regardless of the remaining embers of
Corporatist Tyranny and Fascism trying to save themselves at the expense of course of most others ...
but in the end it si ALREADY a FAILURE - whatever the price it will exact from ALL of US being forced to exist WITHIN its confines all these many generations.
it IS ....a......FAILURE -- even more so than communism supposedly was a failure (though that largely was also because communism or socialism were FORCED to operate WITHIN a GLOBAL SYSTEM of capitalism and were always under assault themselves and could , therefore, NEVER function in their proper - more ethical way , imo) ...
who knows what really will replace it - if we even survive this Capitalist rapaciousness ?
but what is clear is - CAPITALISM ITSELF is the "elephant in the room" that most americans still do not wish to confront as the VERY THING that INEVITABLY will have caused all the UNNECESSARY suffering the globe has experienced --
from wars , to famines due to mal-distribution of resources and artificial scarcity (we only have to look at the speculators on oil prices as an example or the Hedge funds destroying entire economies or banking systems..etc)...
this is why - imo, americans can not see that this is DIFFERENT - this is not some "recession out of which american ingenuity in the FREE MARKET and capitalism will rise again".....
and they as well as any in the world AFFECTED by this american model of economics and social order - will be in for a very , very rude awakening......fascism being MERELY one of the effects.
the american system of economics can not be saved. capitalism and its american model is like having a rapist babysit your own child......
or having a fox guard the chickens...
its very nature is actually WEALTH destroying - by destroying people, the environment, futures, countries and economies, hiding its destructiveness behind its overt wealth accumulation into the hands of a few at the expense of the many. ..promoted as "productivity and efficiency"...when in reality -- it is nothing but WASTEFUL glorification of the idea of "wealth" in order to promote a minority of the populations' SELF gratification and sense of "worthy" ABOVE that of others measured by "wealth"
and then FORCING OTHERS - in that system and belief - to exist and function like the serfs that we have been turned to.
capitalism is the modern version of a few people thinking they are the PHAROAHS of the day - asking countless others to build their PYRAMIDS so they can feel like GODS.
Roosevelt went down the wrong path a couple times when he took over during the great depression. Obama should get it eventually. The list in the post by cygnus near the top has a lot of good points.
We need to turn the initiatives of Waxman-Markey into a green economy, freeing us from imported energy and slowing climate change. We need to bring manufacturing industries back to this country, even if the WTO has a beef. Call them tariffs or border adjustments, whatever, we need some protection. If the US goes Green in manufacturing, we shouldn't be purchasing from polluting and high GHG manufacturers (even if American names are on the labels and American stockholders get a return).
We don't have to overdo it. Just balance. An economy that runs enormous deficits with its trading partners and resulting chronic high unemployment amd underemployment can't afford real estate, health care, highways, stocks, insurance and all that pencil pusher stuff.
There are already elements in the stimulus pkg and Waxman that point to the future. The administration needs to close the loop and help bring sustainable manufacturing of textiles, clothes, shoes, electronics... home. If Obama and successors fail, the Repubs will return and finish turning us into a 1950s banana republic.
Ubrew12:::Emphatically seconding what Cee Miracles wrote above, when you and others read Matt Taibbi's "The Great American Bubble Machine" essay, then an understanding is gained that the sharks? vultures? at Goldman Sachs stack and rig the game from start to finish, ensuring that little or no luck is needed. They loot the economic system and thereby us all. As Taibbi points out in his discussion of the burst in commodities speculation last spring/summer. It produced $4 a gallon gas in the US and left 100 million or more poor people worldwide in even greater desperation as basic grain and food prices soared beyond reach. The firm was at the center of the housing bubble NINJA (no income, no job, no assets) mortage and derivatives disaster which has produced a global economic meltdown. And their people have long been placed in key positions of Treasury and other economic policy spots in Dem or Repug administrations. Including now in the big O administration: Geitner, Summers, and many others described in Taibbi's essay.
Here's hoping all CD posters will reference Taibbi's essay to their own personal networks: email, church, work, family, colleagues, etc. Taibbi is the boy clearly pointing out that the emperor (Goldman Sachs) has no clothes.
I read it, and loved it enough to post it to my family and friends. I'm not saying that the 'system' hasn't been horribly gamed. I'm just saying that the system, as promoted, rewards luck as often as it rewards effort, and we should understand that in our progressive taxation. The lack of progressive taxation yields an unbalanced economy in which vast quantities of wealth are available to be gamed by the very forces Taibbi uncovers. The FACT that they did it is inconsequential: asking smart Americans to NOT know where the cheese is piled up in massive, unsustainable quantities is asking too much. We need to attack the very fact that massive quantities of cheese was EVER piled up in the FIRST place! This is something our grandparents understood VERY well, having lived through it. Its beyond amazing that we should have to live through it again.
Project Mayhem anyone? There's never been a better time or reason.
The current economy can't "recover" - that's a "change" I can believe in. Heckuva job, greedsters!
"a recovery can't be built on replacements"
Yes, a recovery CAN be built on replacements. But you must ignore reality and instead listen to the propaganda dispensed by the "former labor secretary". He has your own personal better interests at heart. The Statue of Liberty symbolizes his compassion and caring for all humanity. So please do not challenge what this astute accomplished Citizen Reich has to say.
When we all understand through our direct personal experience in our family life, community life, that an economy can be sustained only on replacing what gets worn out, we must ignore our direct personal experience, and the many observations written/published recently that a replacement economy is good for people/planet, and crucial to save people/planet from imminent destruction.
We MUST drink the koolaid if Citizen Reich is to succeed in his quest to get the casino royale high rollers rolling again on our backs, the backs of all the people/planet.
Actually Bob, we need to somehow get back to an economy based precisely on "replacement". If our economy is based on debt-based consumption of things we do not need, then we're done...
Oh yeah, it is based on that... I guess we are done.
I favor capitalism, with the proper (and properly enforced) regulation to keep the big fish from scr*wing the little fish. What capitalism does is it rewards people for risking their investment, time, or labor. The size of the reward depends on two factors:
1. The quantity and quality of the investment (is a person hard-working, a prudent decisionmaker, etc).
2. Luck
I actually believe that, on average, HALF of the money made off a successful investment is due to luck. Simply put, rich people are lucky. And, in America, so are their kids, and their kids, and (if you're the JP Morgan family) so on ad infinitum. Lets be clear: I don't believe for a second that JP Morgans Great Great Grandkids deserve to be multi-millionaires. But, in an odd way, I join the millions of Americans who celebrate their being so.
The problem with capitalism is that no people, especially the rich, believe they are lucky. All people believe that they are personally or providentially destined to their fates. Indeed, this is as much a problem for the poor as the rich. The poor ACT OUT THEIR POVERTY as if they did it to themselves and, of course, in acting out, DO it to themselves. It seems, we don't REALLY want to be rich OR poor, just IN CONTROL of our fate.
Leave it to the theologians. From the point of view of capitalism, its absurd in the extreme to sequester tons and tons of potential investment capital with people who were, basically, lucky. Tons of investment capital, but NOT tons and tons of it. And that is where progressive taxation comes in. After the horrid experience with 'no-holds-barred' capitalism of the 1920s led to the Great Depression, FDR etal, taxed the HOLY BEJESUS out of the wealthy, and those taxes were kept high for the next 50 years. What a surprise: those 50 years coincided with the very best of American society, a time when we were tops in EVERYTHING and unbeatable. The destruction of that progressive taxation, most notably by Reagan, spelled the DOOM of American-style capitalism. American-style capitalism rewarded risk-takers with profits, but understood that often what distinguished those risk-takers who made money from those who didn't was pure, dumb LUCK.
The Ayn Rand philosophy that luck had nothing to do with it, that it was all individual fortitude and moxie, is hopefully seen today as the cr*p it is. The purpose of progressive taxation is to celebrate the lucky winners in our casino capitalism by MAKING them donate a substantial fraction of their winnings to the rest of us. And the degree to which we've fallen away from that is the degree to which the unlucky have suffered HORRIBLY in this country for the benefit of the lucky.
Its luck folks. Take their damned money and use it to benefit all of us. (OK, not all of it, but an amount that would have made FDR proud). The record of the 'Greatest Generation' of Americans (who were screaming socialists by todays definition) compels us to revisit our tax scales, and get rid of those horribly unfair loopholes.
ubrue: There is an intrinsic evil of capitalism that emanates from publicly traded corporations that are greatly pressured by Wall Street financial speculators and hedge funds to produce ever increasing shareholder value at the cost of ALL other values.
Nah. The instrinsic evil is greed, and getting rid of capitalism will not solve that problem, and it could make it worse (Stalin). I'm just saying, everyone wants to be on the winning football team. They want it so bad they can taste it. But, when the game is over, do they forward the points won to the next game? No, they rebalance the scales to be equal. The next game is played as though the last never happened. We need more rebalancing in our capitalism. It actually INCREASES the competitive drive to do so. Fewer plastic surgeries, gold-plated Hummers, third yachts and presidential candidates who literally can't recall how many homes they own, and more alternative energy, mass transit, public parks and fountains, libraries, and holidays.
This is a new tune for Reich who was touting the big bank bailout just a few months ago. You know, taxpayers buying up sham financial instruments like mortgage derivatives and credit default swaps, just as was Klugman and Stiglitz, all polishing Geitner's shoes and fawning over Goldman Sachs. Then, thinking that 30 years of "trickle-down", tax breaks for the rich and de-regulation, welfare reform and privatization was some kind of aberration on the political landscape- that Democrats represented some "other" point of view, fondly expected the President ( whose hollow proclaimations of "change" led them down the primrose path) and Congress would "chip in" sufficient to get the beleaguered and enslaved American worker back behind his bluff and pretensiously dimensioned shopping card.
Sorry boys, you're nights at Club 21 are over. Off into the sunset for you guys.
author edit.
Ooooh, oooh, how quick can we re-start the "growth" party? We can certainly grow forever! There are plenty of resources for an ever doubling population. You know, it's all just a matter of confidence. There are no limits to the ability of the environment to provide for humans, the chosen ones.
Obama is a FAILURE!
Liberals and Progressives are impotent.
And stop BITCHING IF YOU REMAIN IN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY. ANYONE BITCHING HERE TODAY WHO DOES NOT JOIN THE GREEN PARTY IS JUST YELLING AND COMPLAINING IN VAIN WITH YOUR USUAL FAKE Liberal/Progressive WHINE(ING). STOP IT BECAUSE IT HAS BECOME TIRING LISTENING TO YOU FAKE Liberal/Progressives who actually thought Obama or that the Demnocratic Party---also a party of the military-corporate state was gonna bring any real "change." You so-called Liberals/Progressives have become very pathetic!
The Democratic Party is not an ally of Liberals and Progressives so get into some reality.
Obama is not a Liberal/Progressive but the newest face on the fading of the American Empire.
Obama's healthcare plan can be equated with a euthansia plan and the sooner you knuckleheads face this harsh reality the better off you will be. Get your heads out of your butts! Face facts folks--Obama and Biden are war mongers who back the military-corporatist state and most Democrats in the U.S. House and Senate are conservatives, and not liberals or progressives.
Until the next time, I am sure all of you will keep busy in those Democratic Party delusions and yes the illusion that Obama is such a "great leader."
Obama being an "environmentalist" is like saying the Mafia never killed anyone.
Obama is not trustworthy and you dolts keep thinking he will achieve substantial changes in the failed political system.
Don't you people realize that the America is a FAILED STATE NOW? That any other country would be under the control of the IMF and World Bank right now? Wake Up because America has Failed and you still want those who allowed it to fail to Fix It for Ya! Man, you people are DUMB!
Ah, such a well-reasoned logical post....NOT!
You lost me at about the second sentence of name-calling. If you have a point, you might try developing it in a moderate and reasoned manner
I was referring to ActionJackson62 July 10th, 2009 4:32 pm, mouthpiece
I was referring to ActionJackson62 July 10th, 2009 4:32 pm, mouthpiece
Stop BITCHING IF YOU REMAIN IN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY. ANYONE BITCHING HERE TODAY WHO DOES NOT JOIN THE GREEN PARTY IS JUST YELLING AND COMPLAINING IN VAIN WITH YOUR USUAL FAKE Liberal/Progressive WHINE(ING). STOP IT BECAUSE IT HAS BECOME TIRING LISTENING TO YOU FAKE Liberal/Progressives who actually thought Obama or that the Demnocratic Party---also a party of the military-corporate state was gonna bring any real "change." You so-called Liberals/Progressives have become very pathetic!
Your name calling and insults speaks more to your impotency, then anyone else’s. Try being intellectual sometime
Don't you realize that the America is a FAILED STATE NOW? That any other country would be under the control of the IMF and World Bank right now? Wake Up because America has Failed and you still want those who allowed it to fail to Fix It for Ya! Man, you are DUMB!
ActionJackson62,
People on this thread and others figured out what you are saying a long time ago and are offering other logical solutions. We all know that this corrupt Administration will not solve our problems, and will continue allowing corporations and the wealthy to become even wealthier at taxpayer expense. Essentially, you are preaching to the choir. What we would like to see you do is offer other possible solutions instead of shouting at us about what we already know.
gracchus,
So, you want to control what I say? No, you will not do that....
I will try to be less rowdy-like, though, in my posts, but, at my behest.
Thanks for the feedback....I made my point clear....I usually do not post like this but today I had to do so....sorry if it makes you feel uncomfortable.....
I suggest you read Chris Hedges latest book as well as Democracy, Inc., by Sheldon Wolin....neither one of them thinks the American people are too "smart" either....
ActionJackson62,
I have no intention of regulating what you would like to say. All I am saying is we hear you. And I am familiar with the works you recommend reading. It is true that a veil of ignorance exists among much of the public, but there are many very smart people who post on CD.
I am serious about the bitching though.....
There are alternatives and I am tired of "liberals-progressives" who remain in the Democratic Party or think that these slimy politicians have the citizens in mind any longer!!!
Good points Mr Jackson,
I completely agree with all of your post.
But Americans always vote with their pocketbooks. Saving the environment is far down their lists. This is a petroleum society. The only way to change that is to outlaw the private automobile. And in suburbia, with no viable public transportation, that's not going to fly.
I feel, that the only way into their cold corporate, self-centered hearts is to show them the awful corruption on wall street/government (same thing.) This site and Wikileaks are a good start. If they can focus, through their diabetes faux news stares long enough to get angry, then maybe we have a chance.
Then it's galvanize the tent cities, enlist the police, the military and the church, and march to throw the DC bums out.
Good Luck to all,
TJ
"All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent." - Thomas Jefferson
You made your point. Now realize that there are people who have other points.
I'm just posting to see how far you can move these boxes to the right. I don't think I've ever seen them this far over.
OK a little more...
Well that was fun.
Ha ha! That was awesome!
A bit more...
One more reply...
It's starting to get tight in this little box...
Help me...
Ugh... Claustrophobic... I have to stop...
How did you do that?
Oh!!
We don't make anything any more. Merkins disdain education. Thank "god" for all our arable land. My grandchildren can be peons for the Indians and Chinese, who do make things and value education highly.
Why does economy have to depend on people spending unnecessarily?
Sorry I am not expert in economics or theories on Capitalism.
But isn't it strange that I have to depend upon people spending relentlessly so that I can afford to live decently or I can afford my Kids education or my retirement.
Why can't there be a economical model which is sustainable so that people can live easily and can afford basic needs.
Current crash has taken away jobs and money, healthcare from people. Why because people stopped spending?
As Robert Reich explained, economy won't be recovering just by spending on necessary things. He is implying that we have to spend on unwanted things.
That means key to our happiness is with the fools who want to spend foolishly. Hmm. I am on wrong planet.
"But isn't it strange that I have to depend upon people spending relentlessly so that I can afford to live decently "
Define "decently". What if your concept of living decently is not sustainable? Are you then willing to live less decently?
"Live Decently" =
Where I can afford or have access to or spend on things which are necessary for life. Like water, food, safety, school.
If you stay in balance with demand and supply of everything, I think there is enough for all and that should be sustainable
"Live Decently" =
Where I can afford or have access to or spend on things which are necessary for life. Like water, food, safety, school.
If you stay in balance with demand and supply of everything, I think there is enough for all and that should be sustainable
Reich was saying that spending isn't the way out of this depression...that an entirely new basis of our economy must be found.
Here in Hawai'i, prior to the imposition of the Western, more, more, more capitalism, Hawaiians lived a sustainable, balanced and ample life.
In fact, it is estimated that prior to Western diseases, the islands supported a poplulation not much less than we have now.
It was supported by taking care of the land, living on what was produced locally, not accumulating THINGS.
No cars, no mansions, no air conditioning, etc.
I'm not advocating a complete return to this but maybe we could move in that direction.
I see no problem with getting rid of cars (in most cases) and mansions (in all cases). As for air conditioning, buildings would have to be redesigned to allow for natural passive cooling...like they had been for like, ever.
Passive air-conditioning: traditional homes in the Philippines and Polynesia were built on bamboo stilts 8 ft off the ground, with bamboo slats for a floor. Air circulates under the home and through the slats, offering a cool environment. Meanwhile, copius palm-frond insulation on the roof beats away the summer sun. In places like Hawaii, many people simply lived at an elevation of 500ft or so to supplement this effect.
Modern replacement: seawater air-conditioning. Pump seawater up from the ocean depths (a few hundred feet down), for district air-conditioning. The warmed seawater is returned to the depths. The effect on the ocean? Nil. Consider that you're effectively tapping yourself in to the worlds largest radiator. Dump whatever heat you WANT into the ocean. Unless the cosmic background radiation temperature somehow rises from 2.7 C, nothing will change but your OWN temperature. Check out Makai Ocean Engineering.
"Modern replacement: seawater air-conditioning. Pump seawater up from the ocean depths (a few hundred feet down), for district air-conditioning. The warmed seawater is returned to the depths. The effect on the ocean? Nil. Consider that you're effectively tapping yourself in to the worlds largest radiator. Dump whatever heat you WANT into the ocean."
What if everyone starts doing this? Not just in the US, but all over the world?
I am not convinced that the effect is going to be Nil. Done on a small local scale, sure, the effect is likely very very minute. Done on large global scale?
The earth is in radiative balance with space. The only way to increase earths temperature is to increase spaces temperature (not happening) or disrupt earths ability to radiate to space (CO2). By choosing to burn fossil fuels for air conditioning rather than direct dumping of heat to the oceans, we are raising the temperature of the oceans FAR more than by direct dumping, because we're impeding the oceans ability to radiate to space. I know it sounds strange, but the heat has to end up somewhere. That somewhere is space. Dumping heat into the ocean directly is not much different from dumping it indirectly (the latter just gives you more 'plausible deniability' lol). Whats tragic is when, to cool yourself, you release so much greenhouse gas into the atmosphere that you impede earths ability to radiate to the space environment, and get runaway global warming.
I suppose that works for islands and coastal cities, but what about inland? I know there are systems where you bury pipes and use them to circulate cooler water from underground throughout a building to take excess heat, and back down to cool off again. There are many other systems as well, but I don't know how widely they are used.
People have placed winter snow into a large pit, insulated it, and used it for summer cooling. Entire buildings have been air-conditioned this way.
I think the author is saying that an economy based on ever increasing consumer spending is not sustainable. He simply describes the prevailing view. In the end, he says "The X marks a brand new track -- a new economy. What will it look like? Nobody knows. All we know is the current economy can't "recover" because it can't go back to where it was before the crash. So instead of asking when the recovery will start, we should be asking when and how the new economy will begin. More on this to come."
As to that final question of when and how the new economy will begin, I think it depends on when the global feudal lords, who move jobs at their whim, aided and abetted by a government that will squeeze the cost of big business bailouts from social security, medicare and medicaid, start attacking each other. As power and resources remain concentrated in fewer and fewer hands, I look for those few hands to start reaching for each other's throats. It may get ugly. We have yet to know what it was like during the great depression, when even those who had a little money didn't buy things because there was nothing to buy, when people left their children in tent camps to ride the rails looking for work for a day or two.
To me, an economy is based on making what you make well, and selling or trading it to those who don't do it well, but who make or sell something that you can't make well. Nowadays, more and more of what we use and need is made abroad, so our economy is one sided. If jobs don't return to our country, and government does not respond to the people that elected it, there may be a bitter storm coming. We'll be unemployed beggars in need of food, homes, home repairs, transportation, yet making none of those things ourselves, hoping only that our global feudal lords and our dear leaders will throw us crumbs.
When is Br-a-a-a-ck (excuse me for belching) Obama going to replace Summers, Geithner, et al, with Robert Reich? With Obama's polls sliding because of employment, it's only a matter of time. You can't save the dollar by continuing to pump money into the investment companies, the Chinese and Russians are reaching the breaking point on U.S. Government investments. Indeed, the catalyst for dumping the dollar may well be when the Israelis attack Iran, with Jumpin' Joe Biden in the thick o' things, swingin' away for the repricin' of oil in non-dollars. Go Joe! So, give it up Br-a-a-a-ck (I really can't stomach this), and hurry up and dump the Summers-Geithner gang. You're going to do it anyway--unless you're a complete fool--so just hurry up get it over with.
It would certainly be nice to get rid of the Goldman-Sachs pirates from our government. It is a great disappointment that Obama has allowed these looters to influence him.