Republicans did not vote to extend the subsidies in July's One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). And if they are allowed to expire at the end of 2025, KFF estimates that the average recipient's insurance premiums will more than double, from $888 to $1,906 per year, which will result in about 4 million people losing their insurance due to unaffordability, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
This is on top of the roughly 10 million expected to lose insurance coverage due to the GOP's massive cuts to Medicaid and other ACA marketplace spending in the Republican budget law.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) have maintained that they would not negotiate on extending the subsidies unless Democrats vote to reopen the government, thereby sacrificing their main point of leverage.
But while many Republicans have hoped to divert attention from the wildly unpopular subsidy cuts to instead push the false narrative that Democrats are pushing for "free healthcare for illegal aliens," one of the most outspoken members of the MAGA coalition put her own party's leaders on blast Monday for their apparent willingness to let millions face higher healthcare costs.
In a blistering post on X, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) said that while she was "not a fan" of the ACA and blamed it for "skyrocketing premiums," she was "going to go against everyone on this issue because when the tax credits expire this year my own adult children's insurance premiums for 2026 are going to DOUBLE, along with all the wonderful families and hardworking people in my district."
"No, I'm not [toeing] the party line on this, or playing loyalty games," Greene continued. "I'm carving my own lane. And I'm absolutely disgusted that health insurance premiums will DOUBLE if the tax credits expire this year."
Greene lamented that "not a single Republican in leadership talked to us about this or has given us a plan to help Americans deal with their health insurance premiums DOUBLING!!!"
She then turned her attention to the tens of billions of dollars worth of military aid sent to Israel and Ukraine in recent years: "All our country does is fund foreign countries and foreign wars, and never does anything to help the American people!!!"
Johnson brushed off Greene's attack, noting that she "does not serve on the committees of jurisdiction to deal with those specialized issues, and she’s probably not read that in on some of that, because it’s still been sort of in their silos of the people who specialize in those issues."
But Casar described Greene's post as evidence that Republicans were beginning to recognize the hardship their policy may have wrought.
" Mike Johnson hasn't picked a fight with Democrats—he's picked a fight with reality," Casar said. "Here's reality breaking through."
While hardly toning down her conspiracy theorizing or her attacks on immigrants and transgender people, Greene has taken some notable stands against her party, as well as President Donald Trump, on some key issues in recent months. These have included opposing additional weapons aid for Israel's war in Gaza, which she has described as a "genocide," and the full release of the Epstein files, which Trump and other Republicans have seemed intent on burying.
But she may not be the only Republican for whom the reality of the GOP's healthcare cuts is "breaking through." On Monday, Trump told reporters gathered at the Oval Office: "We have a negotiation going on with the Democrats that could lead to good things... And I'm talking about good things with regard to healthcare."
Asked if he'd be willing to extend the expiring subsidies, Trump said: "If we made the right deal, I'd make a deal. Sure," adding that "we're talking to the Democrats."
The top House and Senate Democrats denied talking to Trump, and the president did not specify which party members he's allegedly talking to. But it nevertheless marked a notable shift in tone from the week before, when Trump responded to Democrats' healthcare demands with derisive, artificially generated sombrero memes and top congressional Republicans swore off any negotiations unless Democrats agreed to fund the government first.
Other Republicans have joined calls for the subsidies to be extended, including Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), who told reporters: "You've got to do something to make sure the premiums don't essentially double, which they will in my state for private insurance. I mean, we just can't allow that to happen. That's a lot of Missourians who will not be able to afford healthcare."
Hawley notably raised similar concerns about the OBBBA's cuts to Medicaid earlier this year but ultimately voted for the legislation.
Nevertheless, the rhetorical change from some Republicans may have something to do with public opinion on the tax credits.
A poll released Friday by KFF found that 78% of Americans want Congress to extend the credits, compared to just 22% of Americans who want to let the credits expire. These majorities extend across the political spectrum, including 92% of Democrats, 82% of independents, and even 57% of Republicans who identify themselves as part of Trump's MAGA movement.
The same poll found that if the tax credits are not extended, about 4 in 10 adults would blame Trump, while another 4 in 10 would blame Republicans in Congress. Just 2 in 10 would blame Democrats.
Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) said Tuesday that waiting to extend the subsidies until after the shutdown ends is not an option.
"Mike Johnson wants to kick the can down the road when it comes to addressing skyrocketing premiums—but this is a crisis right now," Jayapal said. "Now is the time to negotiate to lower costs—not after millions have been kicked off their healthcare."
