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One thing is for certain: If the Democrats fail to end some of ICE’s most flagrant abuses, it will not be because a lack of political support for their positions.
National polling released by Quinnipiac University on February 4 shows that just over three out of four voters (78%) say that they have seen the shooting of Alex Pretti in Minneapolis by federal immigration agents. Sixty-two percent say that the shooting was not justified, 22% say justified, and 16% are not sure. A 94% majority of Democrats see the Pretti shooting as unjustified as do 2 out of 3 (66%) Independent voters. Republicans offer a more split position (55% justified, 20% not justified, and 25% say they do not know).
Voters also strongly feel (61%) that the Trump administration has not given an honest account of the shooting of Pretti. Just 1 of 4 voters (25%) think that the Trump administration has given an honest account of the Pretti shooting. It is important to note that President Donald Trump does not receiving a ringing endorsement from Republicans (60% honest, 19% not honest, and 21% not sure). Not surprisingly Democrats (93% not honest) see the Trump administration as dishonest as do just under two-thirds (65%) of Independent voters.
The Quinnipiac University research also shows there is widespread discontent with Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Fully 63% disapprove of the way ICE is enforcing immigration laws, while just over 1 in 3 (34%) approve and 4% are not sure. GOP support for ICE is quite strong but not overwhelming (77% approve). Democratic opposition to ICE is close to unanimous (97% disapprove). Independent voters are extremely critical of ICE (28% approve, 68% disapprove).
The Quinnipiac University data shows that Democrats have the political—and moral—high ground to win significant concessions about how ICE operates from Trump and the Republicans.
What must be most concerning for the Trump administration, 60% support the recent protests against ICE. Just under 2 out of 3 Independents (65%) support the anti-ICE protests. Furthermore, 56% believe that the Trump administration has deployed ICE to Minneapolis for political purposes as compared with legitimate law enforcement purposes. Independent voters strongly see Trump’s deployment of ICE to Minneapolis as a political stunt (61% political, 31% law enforcement).
Over the next two weeks, Democrats will have an opportunity to demand concessions from their GOP counterparts and President Trump as they wrangle over future appropriations for the Department of Homeland Security. The Quinnipiac University data shows that Democrats have the political—and moral—high ground to win significant concessions about how ICE operates from Trump and the Republicans. We can only hope that they have the political spine to reign in ICE. One thing is for certain: If the Democrats fail to end some of ICE’s most flagrant abuses, it will not be because a lack of political support for their positions. It will simply be because they lack the will to fight for what they know is right.
Even before the Minneapolis shooting, polls showed public support for dropping Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
In polling conducted on January 8, YouGov showed that American public opinion has turned sharply against Immigration and Customs Enforcement. This polling was conducted on the same day Renee Good was killed during an ICE operation in Minneapolis, so it does not fully incorporate the public outrage generated by this event.
Fully 52% disapprove of how ICE is doing its job (42% strongly disapprove), while 39% approve. Furthermore, 51% say that ICE’s tactics are “too forceful," while just over 1 in 4 (27%) say they are “about right.” A 44% plurality (30% strongly approve) approve of “recent protests against ICE.”
Support for ICE’s work is clustered strongly among Republicans (53% strongly approve, 27% somewhat approve). Democrats give ICE failing grades by an overwhelming margin (72% strongly disapprove, 13% somewhat disapprove). The most significant finding in the YouGov poll is that a 56% majority of Independents (44% strongly, 12% somewhat) disapprove of ICE.
To put this issue in perspective, in February of last year YouGov polling found that ICE had a plus 16-point approval rating.
As more people see video from the Good killing, public opinion will continue to shift.
Axios points out that support for abolishing ICE has dramatically increased.
As more people see video from the Good killing, public opinion will continue to shift. In response to the White House reaction, we may see more Republican support for ICE. An equally likely conclusion is that ICE will hemorrhage support from Independents.
Despite what President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance say, the polling data clearly shows that the majority of Americans are not on the side of ICE, but are with those putting their lives on the line to protest ICE’s aggressive actions.
These numbers are so dramatic that they argue for a reboot of the Trump administration’s economic messaging.
Polling released by the AP/NORC on December 11 shows that the bottom has fallen out for President Donald Trump on his job performance on the economy. Just under a third (31%) approve of Trump’s work on the economy. This is a nine-point drop and is the lowest that the AP/NORC has recorded in either Trump’s first or second terms. Fully 80% of Independent voters give Trump negative scores on his economic stewardship. As you could have guessed, Democrats are nearly unanimous in giving Trump failing grades on the economy (93%). What is quite significant is that 29% of Republicans give Trump failing grades on the economy.
Voters’ perceptions of the economy are also very pessimistic. Overall, 68% say that the economy is in poor shape. Both Democrats (84%) and Independents (80%). Republicans offer a more mixed picture (56% good, 44% poor).
The most significant part of the AP/NORC findings is not Trump’s scores on the economy as they have been poor for some time. What is striking is that on his two signature issues of crime and immigration, Trump fares very poorly. Fully 60% of voters disapprove of Trump’s work on immigration including 70% of Independents. Trump’s grades on immigration are boosted by his GOP support (80% approve, 19% disapprove).
Only in relative terms, does Trump fare better on the issue of crime. Forty-three (43%) approve. Two-thirds (66%) of Independents give Trump failing grades on the economy. As was the case with immigration, Trump’s scores on crime are boosted by his strong support among Republicans (80% approve, 19% disapprove).
If the Trump administration is looking at the data honestly, they must be troubled that Independents and Democratic are on question after questions almost in alignment on their negative assessment of Trump’s job as president.
There is literally no good news for Trump or for that matter the GOP in the AP/NORC polling. These numbers are so dramatic that they argue for a reboot of the Trump administration’s economic messaging. Trump’s ratings on crime and immigration are a real problem, but what really threatens Trump are voters’ perceptions of his economic stewardship. Trump won the presidency in large part because voters thought that he would do a better job on the economy than Vice President Kamala Harris.
Rather than change course on the economy, the Trump administration seems likely to continue to blame the Biden administration for the state of the economy. There is nothing in polling data that would indicate that this will work. Furthermore, Trump’s remarks in Pennsylvania on December 9 also indicate that he is not aware or willing to accept voters’ perceptions of his handling of the economy. This is a clear warning sign of a Democratic landslide in 2026.