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The NYT's Myopic Analysis of Trump’s Polling Misses the Story by Centering His Base
Focusing only on GOP voters distorts Trump’s real standing, and his party's chances heading into the midterms.
Oct 02, 2025
The New York Times is an incredibly reliable source for anyone seeking to understand the world we live in. In addition, the Times’ polling partner Sienna College is one of the best and most accurate polling organization. So, I was shocked by the analysis in an article “After Volatile Summer, Trump’s Approval Remains Low but Stable, Poll Finds” by Shane Goldmacher and Ruth Igielnik. In their article, Goldmacher and Igielnik argue that:
President Trump’s efforts to send National Guard troops to big cities, punish media organizations, and pressure universities and private businesses are all unpopular with voters. But the continued torrent of policies and tactics has not further weakened Mr. Trump’s overall standing, according to a new poll from The New York Times and Siena University. Instead, Mr. Trump continues to retain the support of roughly nine out of 10 Republican voters. The net result: an unpopular president with an unchanged approval rating of 43 percent.
Now, in all fairness, the Times’ reporting is technically correct. However, it misses the real point: Independent voters have abandoned US President Donald Trump. Saying that Trump is unpopular, but his approval rating is stable is like saying that a student is getting a C minus grade, but he or she has not fallen to a D plus. Let’s look a little deeper into the Times/Sienna College polling.
As the Times reported, 68% of Republican voters strongly approve of Trump’s job performance. On the other hand, 86% of Democrats and 50% of Independent voters strongly disapprove of Trump’s job performance. Furthermore, just under 1 in 3 of Trump’s base, white non-college voters (31%) strongly disapprove of Trump’s job performance.
Overall, 45% of registered voters say that Trump has made the economy worse while 32% say better and 20% are not sure. A 48% plurality of Independent voters think that Trump has made the economy worse. As other polling has found, Trump’s standing with Hispanic voters continues to drop. The Times/Sienna polling finds that fully 58% of Hispanic voters think Trump has made the economy worse.
Rather than drawing the conclusion that “Trump’s polling is bad, but stable,” the Times could have concluded that: “Fully 43 percent of registered voters strongly disapprove of Trump’s performance on his key signature issue of immigration.” The second paragraph of the Times story could have easily argued that “Just 39 percent of Independents approve of Trump’s job performance on immigration.”
Another key point that the Times missed was that among Independent voters, a 49% plurality say they would vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress, while 39% say the GOP and 12% are undecided. While the 2026 midterms are a long time for now and lots of things cad and will happen, a 10-point advantage for a generic Democrat is a substantial advantage.
Thus, while it may be true that Trump’s poll numbers have stabilized, they have stabilized at a very low level. Voters are critical of Trump’s stewardship of the economy and far from impressed on his key signature issue of immigration. In what may be the most important piece of data from the Times/Sienna polling, looking toward the 2026 midterm election, Independents are giving the Democrats a substantial advantage.
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Progressives Fear Schumer Will 'Cave' Again in Budget Fight
In an interview Sunday, the top Senate Democrat hesitated to commit to voting 'no' on a Republican funding bill, even without any concessions on a policy that would lead to higher healthcare premiums for millions.
Sep 22, 2025
Progressives are beginning to fear Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer may once again "cave" in budget negotiations with Senate Republicans, even as Democrats hold a crucial bargaining chip related to healthcare costs.
Democrats are pushing the GOP to make concessions in order to fund the government, namely by extending a health insurance subsidy that, if allowed to lapse, will result in tens of millions of Americans paying higher premiums at the end of the year.
They are also hoping to use the negotiations to curtail Trump's ability to rescind federal funding appropriated by Congress and restore funds that have been stripped from public broadcasting and foreign aid.
On Friday, after Republicans passed their version of the bill through the House, both the Republican and Democratic versions of the Senate bills were struck down by the other side.
In an interview Sunday with Dana Bash on CNN, Schumer (D-NY) lamented that Republicans were attempting to ram a bill through with "zero input from Democrats," adding that "that’s not how to get things done."
Congressional Democrats have described a refusal to extend the healthcare subsidies as a red line. But Schumer has come across somewhat shakier in his commitment to that fight, saying last week that “We don’t have a red line, but we know we have to help the American people.”
Later in the interview with Bash, Schumer said, "I hope and pray that Trump will sit down with us and negotiate a bipartisan bill. That's how it's always been done in the past. That's how shutdowns have been avoided in the past."
Bash pushed Schumer to clarify his position: "If he doesn't—I'm just confirming here—You will vote 'no,' is that correct?"
Schumer responded: "We are hoping that he will negotiate with us. So far, he hasn't. We've had two bills in the House and Senate and neither of them have passed. Our Democrats are firm. We need to get something done to relieve the distress the American people are in."
Bash again asked for clarity: "That sounded like a 'yes,' but you can confirm that, and we can move on. Is that accurate?"
Once again, he neglected to give a clear answer, instead reiterating that "The bottom line is that we must—we must—get a better bill than what they have, plain and simple."
Schumer's antics during his last budget showdown with Republicans are looming large in the minds of progressives. In March, the Democratic leader faced perhaps the greatest groundswell of outrage in his career when he abandoned promises to hold firm against a Republican-led continuing resolution that funded the government for six months and expanded Trump's power to override Congress's control over spending.
Many Democrats accused him of "caving," with some calling for him to resign from leadership altogether.
Schumer justified the decision at the time by warning that a temporary shutdown would give Trump greater latitude to consolidate his power. Democrats who voted to break the stalemate also reportedly worried about the political ramifications of being blamed for a shutdown, which could disrupt the functioning of many government services and result in more layoffs of federal workers.
Republicans are reportedly betting that Schumer will cave once again. CNN's Manu Raju reported that late last week, House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) told him that "Chuck Schumer is not gonna shut the government down."
His unwillingness to make a firm commitment on Sunday has reignited fears that yet another capitulation may be coming—even as Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and others warn that Republicans' budget proposal would cause healthcare premiums to rise by an average of 75% for millions of Americans who are already struggling with the cost of living.
Sam Seder, host of the progressive talk show The Majority Report, called Schumer's comments "pathetic."
"It’s not an ultimatum if there are no consequences," Seder said. "This is just Schumer begging Senate Republicans for a fig leaf to justify his coming cave and weak leadership."
Mehdi Hasan, founder of the media outlet Zeteo, expressed bewilderment that Schumer had been reduced to "literally hoping and praying" for Republicans to act differently rather than using leverage.
Sixty votes would be needed for a continuing resolution to pass through the Senate, meaning that seven Democrats would need to join all 53 Republicans in order for it to pass. On Friday, just one Democrat, Sen. John Fetterman (Pa.), joined Republicans in voting for their version of the bill while Republican Sens. Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Rand Paul (Ky.) joined Democrats in voting against it.
The progressive activist group Indivisible has urged constituents to call their Democratic senators and pressure them to use their bargaining power and reject any deal that does not include significant GOP concessions.
Your Members of Congress need to hear from you.Urge Senate Democrats to keep holding their ground.If you’re represented by Sen. Fetterman or Rep. Golden (or Rep. Gluesenkamp Perez, who was recorded as not voting), be sure to let them know how you feel about their support for the GOP’s proposals.
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— Indivisible ❌👑 (@indivisible.org) September 20, 2025 at 8:55 AM
"The GOP is threatening to shut the government down at the end of this month unless Dems let them take healthcare away from millions and hand Trump another blank check to continue his power grab," the group said in a call to action on Bluesky. "Democrats need to keep opposing any funding deal that enables GOP healthcare cuts or allows Trump’s chaos and lawlessness to go unchecked. We must make sure Democrats are fighting like hell and Republicans are held accountable."
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Dems Say They'll Stand Firm Against Budget Deal Unless GOP Halts Attack on Healthcare
Health insurance premiums are expected to rise significantly for approximately 22 million Americans after Republicans ended a tax credit for those enrolled in programs under the Affordable Care Act.
Sep 11, 2025
Democratic leaders said Thursday that they plan to hold up negotiations on a potential government shutdown unless Republicans agree to forfeit a policy change that is expected to dramatically raise health insurance premiums for millions of Americans.
Health insurance premiums are expected to rise significantly for approximately 22 million Americans enrolled in Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace plans after Republicans refused to extend enhanced tax credits when passing Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" in July.
In remarks on Capitol Hill Thursday, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said he and Democratic House Leader Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) were in total agreement not to negotiate unless Republicans agree to extend the tax credits.
“On this issue, we’re totally united. The Republicans have to come to meet with us in a true bipartisan negotiation to satisfy the American people’s needs on healthcare, or they won't get our votes, plain and simple,” Schumer warned at a press conference.
"We will not support a partisan spending agreement that continues to rip away healthcare from the American people. Period. Full stop,” Jeffries said.
The enhanced tax credits, which were created in 2021 under the American Rescue Plan Act and later extended through the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, are credited with reducing the insurance premiums of millions of people who purchase health insurance through government exchanges.
The tax credits have reduced insurance premiums by 44% on average—over $700 per enrollee—and have contributed to the number of people purchasing insurance on the exchanges more than doubling to over 24 million in 2025.
According to a report released Wednesday by KFF:
Nine in 10 enrollees (92%) receive some amount of premium tax credit. If these enhanced tax credits expire at the end of 2025, out-of-pocket premiums would rise by over 75% on average for the vast majority of individuals and families buying coverage through the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplaces.
The increases come as insurance companies, citing "slumping share prices," per the Financial Times, are planning the largest hike to premiums in 15 years, including an 18% increase for those buying from ACA exchanges.
These increases will come on top of those already expected as a result of a Trump administration rule passed in June, which increased the maximum percentages of income and raw dollar amounts that insurance plans could charge patients out-of-pocket for care.
According to the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, these changes "will make coverage less affordable for millions of people." The CBPP estimates that "a family of four making $85,000 will have to pay an additional $197 in premiums for coverage in 2026" while a "family of two or more people on the same plan could face an additional $900 in medical bills if a family member is seriously ill or injured in 2026, and an individual enrolled in self-only coverage could face an additional $450 in medical bills."
In all, the Congressional Budget Office estimated in May that as a result of these mounting costs, over 5 million people will no longer be able to afford their health insurance plans.
"The death star of American healthcare, the insurance companies are preparing to blow up the lives of millions of middle-class families," warned journalist David Sirota in a podcast for The Lever.
Republicans in Congress are facing mounting pressure to extend the tax credits and stave off the premium hikes. Last week, 11 Republicans in Congress signed onto a bill that would extend the credits through 2026, allowing them to avoid the issue until after the midterm elections.
A survey conducted in July by two of Trump's most trusted pollsters, Tony Fabrizio and Bob Ward, found that for Republicans in the most competitive districts, "a 3-point deficit becomes a 15-point deficit" against the generic Democrat if they allow the healthcare premium tax credit to expire.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has stayed coy about whether he and the Republican caucus plan to support extending the credits.
"I'm not going to forecast that right now," Johnson told reporters earlier this week, while also saying, "There's a lot of opposition to it as well."
Democrats, meanwhile, have proposed a competing bill to make the subsidies permanent and are hoping to use this month's budget showdown to force Republicans to make concessions on the issue.
As David Dayen wrote Monday for the American Prospect, it sets up a challenging strategic and moral dilemma for Democrats:
On the one hand, Democrats fighting for healthcare benefits speaks to an issue where they have the highest level of support from the public. They would credibly be able to tell voters that they fought for lower costs during an affordability crisis and won, and that more of that will happen if they are given power in the midterms.
On the other hand, Republicans willingly drove the healthcare system toward the point of oblivion, and some may question why Democrats would offer a lifeline to bail them out. In this reading, relieving Republicans of the consequences of their health care plans would be harmful to Democratic midterm chances; Trump would take credit for keeping health care costs low.
What's clear, Dayen said, is that "unless action is taken, it will be an enormous example of Trump's failure to rein in the runaway cost of living."
Lisa Gilbert, co-president of Public Citizen, urged Democrats to stand firm as the fight over a potential government shutdown heats up.
"If Republicans refuse to negotiate and move away from their cost-increasing agenda, then it is Republicans who will be forcing a government-wide shutdown," Gilbert said. "There should be no deal without assurances that the budget will be honored and not impounded, and one that returns care to the American people.”
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