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"The vaults are open and the arms trade is thriving before the war and after it," said one Nobel Peace Prize laureate.
As the US voting public continues to express its discontent over the disastrous war of choice against Iran that US President Donald Trump launched just over two months ago, fresh criticism followed after weekend reporting revealed the administration skirted congressional review to approve an $8.6 billion weapons deal with the United Arab Emirates and other allies in the Middle East.
Announced Friday night quietly by the US State Department, as the New York Times reports, the "sales would entail the transfer of rockets to Israel, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates and air-defense equipment to Qatar and Kuwait."
According to the Times:
Under the terms of the deal with Qatar, the Gulf country would pay more than $4 billion for American-made Patriot missile interceptors — global stockpiles of which have dwindled during the war with Iran.
Israel, the Emirates and Qatar would receive an Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System, which fires laser-guided rockets. Kuwait also purchased an advanced aerial defense system for about $2.5 billion.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio expedited the deals under an emergency provision allowing the “immediate sale” of the weapons, the State Department said, bypassing standard congressional review and prompting criticism from Democratic lawmakers. This is the third time the second Trump administration has invoked an emergency authorization during the Iran war to bypass Congress on arms sales.
"No comment," said Mohamed ElBaradei, a Nobel Peace Prize winner and the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), in an eye-rolling response to the news on social media.
After a commenter suggested that "America opened the door to war for [the countries taking part in the sale] so they would open their treasuries and the Israeli-American arms trade would boom after a slump," ElBaradei seemed to agree.
"The vaults are open, and the arms trade is thriving before the war and after it," he said.
Kenneth Roth, former executive director of Human Rights Watch and now a visiting professor at Princeton University, said: "Trump is bypassing Congress to fast-track arms sales to the United Arab Emirates, apparently without receiving any promise that the UAE would stop arming the genocidal Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan."
The RSF has been accused of atrocities in the ongoing Sudanese civil war, and the backing it has received from the US, with the UAE as its closely allied proxy, has been the source of outrage and criticism.
The head of the Committee to Protect Journalists has called Shihab-Eldin's arrest for social media posts about the Iran war part of a trend of “increasing restrictions on freedom of expression” in the Gulf states.
US-Kuwaiti journalist Ahmed Shihab-Eldin is expected to be released after more than seven weeks in jail following his acquittal by a Kuwaiti court on Thursday.
The 41-year-old Shihab-Eldin, an award-winning reporter and documentarian who has worked at HuffPost, The New York Times, and Al Jazeera English, was detained by Kuwaiti authorities on March 2, just days after the US and Israel launched the opening salvos of their aggressive war against Iran, which was met with retaliatory strikes against US military bases across the Persian Gulf, including in Kuwait.
Shihab-Eldin, a US and Kuwaiti citizen who was in Kuwait to visit family, frequently commented on his public Substack account about news related to the war. One of his recent posts included a geolocated video, which was already public, of an American F-15 Strike Eagle jet falling from the sky near a US air base.
CNN later confirmed the video's authenticity, while the US military confirmed it was one of three American planes downed that day in what was described as a "friendly fire incident."
But shortly after posting the video, Shihab-Eldin found himself detained by Kuwaiti authorities on charges of "spreading malicious information online" and "harming national security."
The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) called these "vague and overly broad accusations that are routinely used to silence independent journalists."
Legal counsel hired by Shihab-Eldin's sisters said on Thursday that he had been declared innocent of the charges by a Kuwaiti court and was expected to be released imminently, though some details were still being finalized.
“We are relieved that Ahmed Shihab-Eldin has been found innocent after 52 days in detention,” said Jodie Ginsberg, CEO of the CPJ. “Ahmed’s freedom and safety remain our topmost priority, and we will continue to closely monitor his case.”
Kuwait has come under heavy fire from Iran since the war began. In addition to attacks against American air bases, which have killed at least six US soldiers, Iran has targeted Kuwait's main airport and facilities at the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation.
Shihab-Eldin's arrest came as the Kuwaiti government began an aggressive clampdown on the sharing of video and other information related to Iranian attacks.
On May 2, Kuwait's Ministry of Information warned the public "not to photograph or publish any clips or information related to missiles or relevant locations."
Days later, the ministry announced that it was referring several "media law violators" for prosecution. It said, "Freedom of opinion and expression is guaranteed within the framework of the law and is coupled with professional responsibility, accuracy, credibility, and obtaining information from official sources."
On March 15, Kuwait introduced a censorship law stating that companies and individuals were "obligated to preserve the supreme interests of the military authorities." It imposed prison sentences of up to 10 years for anyone who “disseminates news, publishes statements, or spreads false rumors related to military entities” with the intent to undermine confidence in them.
The verdict in Shihab-Eldin's case was just one of 137 handed down on Thursday by a new court meant to oversee crimes related to national security and terrorism. Those defendants have been accused of “inciting sectarian strife on social media platforms,” according to Drop Site News, which cited Jordan's Al-Rai newspaper.
Shihab-Eldin was just one of nine defendants to be acquitted, though in 109 of the cases, no criminal punishment was handed down. Seventeen defendants received three years in prison, while another 10 received one year.
Ginsberg said Kuwait's repressive clampdown is part of a trend of "increasing restrictions on freedom of expression” that has been observed across the wider Middle East, and particularly the autocratic Gulf states that host American military bases, since the war's outbreak.
The governments of Qatar, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates have each arrested hundreds of people for filming or sharing content relating to Iranian strikes or other information related to the war or protests against the government, according to a report by Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN).
"This wave of repression reflects a deeper trend among Arab regimes: growing public frustration with US policy in the region and their governments' alignment with Washington," said Yara Bataineh, an editorial associate at DAWN's Democracy in Exile. "This crackdown did not begin with the war on Iran. Across several Arab states, authorities had already moved to suppress pro-Palestinian activism during Israel's genocide in Gaza—a pattern that has since intensified."
Israel's genocide in Gaza and expansionist military campaign into Lebanon have also proven historically deadly to journalists—including the Lebanese journalist Amal Khalid, who died under a pile of rubble on Wednesday from an attack by Israeli forces, who also attacked Red Cross workers attempting to rescue her. She is among hundreds of journalists and media workers who have been killed by Israeli attacks since 2023, according to the International Federation of Journalists.
“Almost inevitably, during a war, we see countries try to impose restrictions in the name of national security, and almost always that doesn’t just target genuine national security issues, but ends up covering a broad range of issues that are essential for us to understand what is happening,” Ginsberg told MS NOW. “That’s why we need journalists. We need journalists on the ground who can be our eyes and ears when we can’t get into these places and see for ourselves, so that we can understand what’s happening.”
She added, "It is an incredibly challenging time to be a journalist, and Ahmed’s case is emblematic of that."
"Oil and gas companies may achieve huge windfall profits in a year that previously looked far less lucrative for them, and billions of people could see their energy bills soar," warned one campaigner.
From declaring an energy emergency and ditching global climate initiatives to abducting the Venezuelan leader to seize control of the country's nationalized oil industry, President Donald Trump has taken various actions to serve his fossil fuel donors since returning to power last year. Now, his and Israel's war on Iran could soon lead to US liquefied natural gas giants pocketing tens of billions in windfall profits.
"The Persian Gulf has some of the world's largest oil and gas producers," Oil Change International research co-director Lorne Stockman explained in a Tuesday blog post, "and a large proportion of that production, around 20% of global petroleum, must pass through a relatively narrow corridor controlled by Iran to reach global markets: the Strait of Hormuz," between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
Stockman—whose advocacy group works to expose the costs of fossil fuels and facilitate a just transition to clean energy—noted that "crude oil, refined petroleum products, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) traverse the strait in vast quantities every day. But not since Saturday. With missiles, fighter jets, and drones circling, shipping has ground to a halt, and Iran reportedly threatened to close the strait by force on Monday."
As the conflict in the Persian Gulf continues, fossil fuel companies are preparing for record-breaking profits while billions of people face soaring energy bills and "energy poverty."We’re tired of a world where our energy system fuels war and destroys our climate. oilchange.org/blogs/trumps...
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— 350.org (@350.org) March 4, 2026 at 4:43 AM
Based on ship-tracking data from MarineTraffic, Reuters estimated Wednesday that "at least 200 ships, including oil and liquefied natural gas tankers as well as cargo ships, remained at anchor in open waters off the coast of major Gulf producers including Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar," and "hundreds of other vessels remained outside Hormuz unable to reach ports."
Stockman warned that "depending on how long the violence and its atrocious human toll continues—Trump said it may take weeks until his undefined objectives are achieved—this will have huge implications for energy markets. Oil and gas companies may achieve huge windfall profits in a year that previously looked far less lucrative for them, and billions of people could see their energy bills soar."
Since Trump and Israeli Benjamin Netanyahu launched "Operation Epic Fury" on Saturday, over 1,000 people had been killed as of Wednesday, according to the Iranian government, and oil prices have surged—highlighting how, as Greenpeace International executive director Mads Christensen put it earlier this week, "as long as our world runs on oil and gas, our peace, security and our pockets will always be at the mercy of geopolitics."
Qatar exports about 20% of the global LNG supply, second only to the United States. All of that LNG goes through the Strait of Hormuz. An Iranian drone attack on Monday targeted Qatari LNG facilities, leading state-owned QatarEnergy to declare force majeure on exports. Two unnamed sources told Reuters that QE "will fully shut down gas liquefaction on Wednesday," and "it may take at least a month to return to normal production volumes."
The Qatari shutdown is expected to boost the US LNG industry, which exported about 108 million metric tons last year. Already, shares of the two largest LNG producers in the United States, Cheniere and Venture Global, have surged.
"We've got an acute contraction of global LNG supply," Alex Munton, an expert on natural gas markets at consulting firm Rapidan Energy, told CNBC. "The world is now down 20% from where it was, and that leaves the world short."
As CNBC reported Tuesday:
US producers can't ramp LNG production beyond current levels, Munton said. "They're basically running at capacity," he said.
But since their customer contracts don't have fixed destinations, they can reroute LNG to meet demand, he said. The flexible capacity at US LNG producers like Venture and Cheniere plays a crucial role in moments of crisis, the analyst said. It's a unique feature of the US LNG industry, he added.
"The volumes are able to reroute to where the demand is greatest," Munton said. "We saw this in 2022 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Suddenly, Europe was left short, and it was able to call on US LNG and utilize the inherent flexibility of US LNG.
US LNG cannot replace lost supply from Qatar, but buyers who really need the gas and are willing to pay a high enough price will get it, Munton said.
Seb Kennedy, the energy journalist and market analyst behind the newsletter Energy Flux, estimated Wednesday that "American LNG exports could generate up to $4 billion in windfall profits if the force majeure remains in effect for one month. This figure could rise as high as $20 billion per month if the market is deprived of Qatari supply until the summer."
"Over the first four months, US LNG profits could reach more than $33 billion above the pre-Iran average. Over eight months, that figure rises to $108 billion," he continued. "And if, in an extreme scenario, Qatari LNG is shut-in for a full year, the excess profits raining down on US LNG exports could stack up to almost $170 billion—a figure that would represent one of the most concentrated commodity windfalls of the post-2000 era."
"To put that in context, the 12-month Ukraine war windfall accruing to US LNG exporters, from August 2021 through August 2022, is estimated at $84 billion," Kennedy noted. "Iran could, in certain circumstances, eclipse that total in just over six months."
My latest for Energy Flux:💥 War profits, quantified 💥As Middle East regional war upends global gas markets, US LNG exporters stand to pocket a multi-billion-dollar windfallCheck it out 👉 www.energyflux.news/war-profits...
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— Seb Kennedy (@sebkennedy.bsky.social) March 4, 2026 at 11:58 AM
As the US Senate prepared for a vote on a war powers resolution that is not expected to pass but would swiftly halt Trump's assault on Iran, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Wednesday that the war could last at least eight weeks. He also announced that an American submarine fired a torpedo that sank an Iranian naval ship off the coast of Sri Lanka.
On Tuesday, Trump had responded to Iran's attempt to shut down the Strait of Hormuz with a post on his Truth Social platform: "Effective IMMEDIATELY, I have ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide, at a very reasonable price, political risk insurance and guarantees for the Financial Security of ALL Maritime Trade, especially Energy, traveling through the Gulf. This will be available to all Shipping Lines. If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible. No matter what, the United States will ensure the FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the WORLD. The United States’ ECONOMIC and MILITARY MIGHT is the GREATEST ON EARTH—More actions to come."
However, as the New York Times highlighted Wednesday, "shipping company officials and analysts are skeptical" of Trump's promised fixes, and "some industry executives also worried how quickly these could get up and running."
For example, Helima Croft, the global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, wrote to clients on Tuesday that "we think the insurance proposal is likely in a concepts-of-a-plan stage," and she questioned whether there are enough US naval assets in the region to actually provide escorts.