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inflation
Fewer Jobs, Higher Inflation, and $300 Billion in Lost Output: Analysis Details Woeful Trump Economy
"This economy could be delivering lower inflation, more jobs, and stronger growth, but instead, it’s being dragged in the wrong direction by this president’s policy choices."
Apr 15, 2026
With US consumer sentiment hitting an all-time low, the Center for American Progress on Wednesday released a report pinning the blame for Americans' economic gloom on President Donald Trump.
In total, the CAP analysis projects that by the fourth quarter of 2026, Trump's policies will lower real GDP by 1.3% while adding 1.39% to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation.
The report also estimates that the economy would have created an additional 2 million jobs 2026 were it not for the Trump's tariffs, mass deportations, and war of choice with Iran.
Although the unemployment rate at the moment is low, the report explains, US employers are also hiring far fewer people, as "both labor demand and labor supply have fallen, leaving a job market with fewer opportunities and less resilience against downturns."
Trump's policies have also made borrowing more expensive, and CAP says that interest rates are now 60 basis points higher than they otherwise would have been without the president's policies.
Jared Bernstein, senior fellow at CAP and former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Joe Biden, said the analysis shows "this economy could be delivering lower inflation, more jobs, and stronger growth, but instead, it’s being dragged in the wrong direction by this president’s policy choices."
Bernstein said Trump's tariffs were the primary culprit for higher-than-expected inflation in 2025, while the oil supply shock that came after Trump launched a war with Iran is expected to add even more inflation throughout 2026.
The end result, said Bernstein, is a kind of "stagflation," with low economic growth and higher-than-average inflation. He also warned that "longer-term costs from reduced investment in both people and public goods will also take a toll on future growth."
Job growth in the US has largely stalled ever since Trump announced his "liberation day" tariffs more than a year ago, and a CAP analysis published earlier this month found that the economy has created an average of fewer than 22,000 jobs per month over the last year.
The latest Consumer Price Index report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics found that prices in March rose by 3.3% from the previous year—the highest annual inflation rate since April 2024.
Despite this, Trump has continued to insist that he has created the "greatest" economy in the history of the world.
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‘America’s Not OK’: Surveys Show US Wellbeing in Steep Decline Under Trump
"Americans are drowning under rising costs, flat wages, high unemployment, and historic layoffs—it’s no wonder they’re concerned about how they’re going to make ends meet."
Apr 10, 2026
Two recently released surveys revealed a significant drop in Americans' self-reported wellbeing as the Trump administration launches illegal and deadly military conflicts and plunges the global economy into chaos.
On Friday, the University of Michigan issued its monthly Survey of Consumers, which showed that consumer sentiment in the US hit an all-time low after dropping by 11% since March, amid President Donald Trump's war of choice in Iran.
The drop in consumer sentiment was almost universal, the survey found, as "demographic groups across age, income, and political party all posted setbacks in sentiment, as did every component of the index, reflecting the widespread nature of this month’s fall."
As for the reasons for the decline, the survey found "many consumers blame the Iran conflict for unfavorable changes to the economy," such as a major spike in gas prices, which the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday increased by more than 20% in the month since the war began.
Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, noted that the latest consumer sentiment data showed Americans are even more sour on the economy now than they were in the summer of 2022, when the economy was dealing with the highest inflation it had seen in decades.
Kendall Witmer, rapid response director of the Democratic National Committee, seized on the consumer sentiment report and accused Trump of having "tanked the economy for working families."
"Americans are drowning under rising costs, flat wages, high unemployment, and historic layoffs," Witmer added. "It's no wonder they're concerned about how they’re going to make ends meet and Trump and [Vice President] JD Vance can’t be bothered to make life more affordable for them."
The record low in consumer sentiment comes just weeks after Gallup released its annual World Happiness Report, which showed that the US had fallen out of its rankings of the 20 happiest countries in the world.
The report says the decrease in US happiness largely came from "lower life evaluations among young adults," and points the finger at high social media use as a key factor in making young people miserable.
Specifically, the report finds "there is now overwhelming evidence of severe and widespread direct harms (such as sextortion and cyberbullying), and compelling evidence of troubling indirect harms (such as depression and anxiety)" from social media use, adding that "the harms and risks to individual users are so diverse and vast in scope that they justify the view that social media is causing harm at a population level."
Social media's impact on mental health has come into focus in recent weeks with juries in multiple states finding Big Tech companies liable for creating products that harm children.
In March, a New Mexico jury found social media giant Meta liable for harming children's mental health and safety, ordering the company to pay $375 million. A day later, a Los Angeles jury ordered Meta and Google to each pay $3 million in civil damages to a now-20-year-old woman who alleged harm and suffering caused by their products when she was an adolescent.
Journalist Derek Thompson took stock of the Gallup survey and the University of Michigan survey, as well as last year's General Social Survey that also documented a decline in US happiness, and declared, "America is not OK."
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'Trump Is Deliberately Ruining the Economy': Inflation Soars Thanks to Illegal Iran War
“The toll of Trump’s war in Iran won’t stop at the pump,” warned one expert. “Price hikes on summer vacations, groceries, and electronics are coming."
Apr 10, 2026
New data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that inflation soared in March thanks in large part to increased energy costs stemming from President Donald Trump's illegal war with Iran.
According to the BLS, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) posted a month-over-month gain of 0.9% in March, led by a 10.9% increase in energy prices including a massive 21.2% increase in gasoline.
On a yearly basis, total prices rose by 3.3% from where they were in March 2025—the highest annual inflation rate since April 2024.
University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers commented in a social media post that inflation in March was "up sharply, and there's more to come," while describing the data as "the first numbers showing economic effects of the war in Iran."
New York Times economics reporter Ben Casselman observed that the 3.3% rise in inflation was "the fastest inflation rate of Trump's second term," and that "the jump was driven almost entirely by higher energy prices, the direct result of the war with Iran."
Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, flagged a particularly worrying aspect of the BLS report, which is that "wage growth is almost entirely eaten up by inflation now."
"Wage growth was +3.5% in March for the past 12 months. Inflation was +3.3% in March for the past 12 months," Long explained. "This is the squeeze many households are feeling. Their pay won't be able to keep up with this level of inflation. (And yes it was the same situtation in 2022)."
Elizabeth Pancotti, managing director for policy and advocacy at Groundwork Collaborative, said that the spike in inflation "comes as no shock to anyone who has filled up their gas tank in the past month," and predicted the damage wouldn't be limited to fuel prices.
"The toll of Trump’s war in Iran won’t stop at the pump," Pancotti said. "Price hikes on summer vacations, groceries, and electronics are coming down the pike as his war stokes chaos in supply chains around the world. By pursuing this illegal war, the president has made it clear that he’s putting American families last."
Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) stated that "between the war and tariffs and general incompetence, Trump is deliberately ruining the economy."
The Republican Party tried to put its best spin on the numbers by boasting that core inflation, which excludes the prices of food and energy, did not rise as much as anticipated.
"Core inflation just came in LOWER than expected for the month of March!" the GOP wrote in a social media post. "President Trump continues defying the 'experts' and beating expectations."
However, the GOP's post got several angry replies from followers who argued that core inflation mattered little when energy prices are spiking and gas prices are averaging $4.15 per gallon.
As Vox senior editor Benji Sarlin noted, former President Joe Biden's White House regularly pointed to core inflation numbers while trying to ease voters' anxiety about rising prices, but with little success.
"Congrats to all the Trump White House folks explaining the difference between topline inflation and core inflation during an oil shock today, I’m sure the Biden WH alums will be very sympathetic," Sarlin wrote. "People on social media also love it when you say inflation is actually pretty good if you just exclude gas, try it out."
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