SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FREE NEWSLETTER
Daily news & progressive opinion—funded by the people, not the corporations—delivered straight to your inbox.
5
#000000
#FFFFFF
5
#000000
#FFFFFF
us military
Economist: Don't Listen to Hegseth, Trump's Iran War Will Cost 'Very Possibly Trillions'
"War is hell. And hell comes with a hefty price tag," said University of Michigan professor Justin Wolfers.
May 08, 2026
University of Michigan professor Justin Wolfers on Friday joined a growing number of economists and other critics casting down on what he called "the Pentagon's lowball $25 billion estimate" for the cost of President Donald Trump's illegal war on Iran.
While testifying before Congress last week alongside US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, Pentagon comptroller Jules "Jay" Hurst offered the $25 billion figure. However, experts have responded with raised eyebrows. Stephen Semler, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, estimated that the government spent at least $71.8 billion during the first two months of the war, or around $1.2 billion each day.
Although Trump told Congress last Friday—a key deadline under the War Powers Act—that his assault on Iran had been "terminated," citing the ceasefire deal reached a month ago after his genocidal threat, the administration has maintained its naval blockade and on Thursday bombed what it claimed were "Iranian military facilities responsible for attacking US forces."
The cost isn't just measured in billions of taxpayer dollars spent on a war that doesn't make us safer. It's measured in economic losses such as high prices working families see at the gas pump. The human toll can't be ignored. www.nytimes.com/2026/05/08/o...
[image or embed]
— Randi Weingarten 🖇️📚✊🇺🇸 (@rweingarten.bsky.social) May 8, 2026 at 2:41 PM
As the threat of more US bombings of Iran loomed, Wolfers wrote Friday in a New York Times opinion piece that "the Pentagon's stated number reflects only a narrow accounting of the tab that Operation Epic Fury is running up. It's the price of the more than 2,000 Tomahawk and Patriot missiles already fired, the warplanes already flown and in some cases lost, and the rest of the gear already chewed through. It does not measure the true cost of the war—including the human toll."
"Since the start of the war, oil markets have been disrupted, consumer confidence has cratered, the global economy is groaning, and military budgets are growing," the economist continued. "The toll from this upheaval must be counted in lives disrupted, jobs lost, companies shut down (see: Spirit Airlines), and the income and output sacrificed. The less easily quantified costs—death, disability, and mental health—could become much more dramatic should President Trump send troops into Iran, which still can't be ruled out."
As David Dayen, executive editor of The American Prospect, detailed Friday, the war seemingly hasn't achieved any of Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's shifting objectives:
The US and Israel said they wanted to eradicate Iran's nuclear program and change its regime. The regime is now composed of more hard-liners than before, and Iran's nuclear capability has not budged since last summer. Now the two sides are negotiating the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which was open before the conflict, and the terms of Iran's nuclear program, which they were negotiating before the conflict. Moreover, the compromise being contemplated involves Iran pausing uranium enrichment in exchange for the US lifting sanctions and unfreezing Iranian funds. That sounds suspiciously like the deal President Obama struck in 2015 that Trump ripped up when he took office, complete with the "bags of cash" sent to Iran that Trump flipped out over back then.
All this war has done is killed thousands of people, opened a new front for Israel in Lebanon, damaged most US military sites and most energy production facilities in the region, led to oil spills that are visible from space, created a shipping bottleneck that will take at least a year to fix, raised domestic gas prices to a record for this time of year, cost American consumers $34.3 billion and counting, ended the life of one US airline with more likely to come, and led us down an imminent path to physical shortages of critical commodities like oil, including in the United States.
I have never in my life seen a war that achieved literally none of its objectives while directly causing this many devastating costs, and I lived through Iraq and Afghanistan.
The Washington Post reported Thursday that the Central Intelligence Agency has privately warned the Trump administration that "Iran can survive the US naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing more severe economic hardship," and its "analysis might even be underestimating Iran's economic resilience if Tehran is able to smuggle oil via overland routes."
The reporting heightened concerns about how long the war may drag on. The International Monetary Fund warned last month that a prolonged conflict could cause a global recession.
Already, the war has "pushed the Federal Reserve Bank into a corner," and "Wall Street is worried, despite the market touching new highs," Wolfers wrote Friday. "My estimate—based on the movement of oil prices, along with the S&P 500—is that stocks are about 5% lower than they otherwise would be, suggesting that the war has wiped about $3 trillion off the value of these companies."
The economist also cited recent research showing that elevated "geopolitical risk leads to lower investment and employment."
Shortly after launching the war in February, the White House signaled it would need $200 billion for the operation. However, it is now seeking a $1.5 trillion defense budget for the next fiscal year—which Hegseth tried to frame as a fiscally responsible plan that puts "the American taxpayer first" in a widely ridiculed video this week. Wolfers highlighted that the budget request is "a roughly 40% boost over this year. That's a massive $600 billion increase, or roughly $4,000 per household."
Like Dayen, Wolfers also pointed to the Iraq War, which economists Linda Bilmes and Joseph Stiglitz estimated cost the US around $3 trillion, after factoring in expenses such as "lifetime medical care and disability benefits for veterans, and the higher recruitment and retention costs that follow a bloody war—all compounded by a rising interest bill."
"The best any economist can do right now is get the order of magnitude right, and my math suggests the Iran war will cost hundreds of billions of dollars, and very possibly trillions," Wolfers concluded. "War is hell. And hell comes with a hefty price tag."
Keep ReadingShow Less
Hegseth Brags About Attacks on Iranian Ships in Strait of Hormuz While Claiming Ceasefire Holds
The president and defense secretary "want you to think we haven’t been at war with Iran for over 65 days," said one Democratic congressional candidate.
May 05, 2026
While assuring reporters that the ceasefire agreement reached last month between the Trump administration and Iran is holding, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Tuesday said the American forces are acting "aggressively" in the Strait of Hormuz, where he said US Central Command has "established a powerful red, white, and blue dome" as a "direct gift from the US to the world."
The metaphorical "dome" the US has placed over the key shipping route for oil and other goods has taken the form of what the Trump administration is calling Project Freedom, which launched Monday and involves the US guiding ships out of the strait, according to President Donald Trump. Iran effectively shut the waterway more than two months ago in retaliation for the unprovoked US-Israeli war on the country, and the US Navy has blocked ships from going to or from Iran in response.
Hegseth emphasized Tuesday that Project Freedom is "separate and distinct" from the military assault on Iran that began on February 28 with the stated aim of eliminating the country's missile and nuclear capabilities.
"The ceasefire is not over," said the secretary. "We expected there would be some churn, which happened, and we said we would defend and defend aggressively, and we absolutely have."
He added that the US is "not looking for a fight."
Independent journalist Rachel Blevins responded sardonically: "'We are not looking for a fight'—we just murdered your leader, your schoolchildren, and your civilians, we bombed your infrastructure, and we've been trying to strangle your economy with sanctions for years."
Adm. Brad Cooper, the head of US Central Command, told reporters that US warships shot down Iranian cruise missiles that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had fired at the vessels Navy ships were guiding out of the strait on Monday, and Army helicopter gunships sank six military speedboats from Iran.
As Common Dreams reported Tuesday, an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander told Iran's state-affiliated media that US forces actually attacked "two small boats carrying people on their way from Khasab on the coast of Oman to the coast of Iran on Monday" and killed five civilians, but did not hit any IRGC ships.
At his press conference with Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Hegseth insisted that Iran is the "aggressor" even as he threatened the country with restarting "major combat operations" if Trump deems them "necessary."
Project Freedom, said Hegseth, "is about free flow of commerce, all the things that happened before, and only Iran is contesting, so right now the ceasefire certainly holds, but we're going to be watching very, very closely."
One reporter with the Epoch Times asked whether the president plans to seek congressional approval if he decides it is necessary to restart "major combat operations."
Days before the fighting in the strait, Trump notified Congress last Friday that hostilities with Iran had been terminated. The announcement came on the deadline set by the 1973 War Powers Act, which requires US presidents to end conflicts that have not been authorized by Congress no more than 60 days after notifying lawmakers of the hostilities.
Trump told Congress that the fighting has been effectively terminated since the US and Iran agreed to the ceasefire on April 7, a view that Hegseth pushed on Tuesday in response to the question about congressional authorization.
"Our view is... that ultimately with the ceasefire, the clock stops," said Hegseth. "If it were to restart that would be the president's decision. That option is always there and Iran knows that."
Q: Will this administration be seeking congressional approval for any further military operations if the ceasefire breaks down?
Hegseth: Our view is with the ceasefire, the clock stops. If it were to restart, that would be the president's decision. That option is always there.… pic.twitter.com/cz3bIpLeIC
— Acyn (@Acyn) May 5, 2026
NBC News senior national politics reporter Jonathan Allen responded that he had "never heard" of Hegseth and Trump's reasoning for not planning to seek congressional approval for more combat operations.
"Understand that what he is doing here is desperately trying to avoid the War Powers Act," said Fred Wellman, a Democratic congressional candidate in Missouri. "They made up a new interpretation that says the 60-day clock is 'paused' for a ceasefire. Now they are lying and saying this is an all-new, shiny war and not the same one."
He added, "This clown and [the administration's] Republican congressional doormats want you to think we haven’t been at war with Iran for over 65 days."
Keep ReadingShow Less
Rejecting Trump Admin's Account, Iran Says US Killed Five Civilians in Strait of Hormuz
"Events in Hormuz make clear that there's no military solution to a political crisis," said Iran's top diplomat.
May 05, 2026
Iranian officials on Tuesday rejected the Trump administration's account of events in the Strait of Hormuz over the preceding 24 hours, saying that the US military attacked two cargo boats and killed at least five civilians amid President Donald Trump's ploy to force open the critical waterway.
Iran's state-affiliated media carried comments from an unnamed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander who said that American forces "attacked two small boats carrying people on their way from Khasab on the coast of Oman to the coast of Iran on Monday," killing five people on board, and that no IRGC vessels were hit. US forces, said the commander, "must be held accountable for their crime."
The IRGC commander's version of events was reported hours after the head of the US Central Command told the press that two US-flagged commercial vessels successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz with the help of American forces, which purportedly shot down drones and destroyed six Iranian speedboats that were said to be targeting the ships.
Monday's exchanges came amid Trump's newly announced scheme—titled Project Freedom—to "guide" vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has closed in response to the US-Israeli war and the Trump administration's subsequent blockade of Iran.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a top Iranian negotiator and speaker of the country's parliament, said in a statement posted online early Tuesday that "the new equation of the Strait of Hormuz is in the process of being solidified."
"The security of shipping and energy transit has been jeopardized by the United States and its allies through the violation of the ceasefire and the imposition of a blockade; of course, their evil will diminish," he wrote. "We know full well that the continuation of the status quo is intolerable for America; while we have not even begun yet."
The US military has not yet responded to Iran's statements on developments in the Strait of Hormuz. Pentagon Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Dan Caine are set to hold a press conference on Tuesday morning.
Abbas Araghchi, Iran's foreign minister, said Tuesday that "events in Hormuz make clear that there's no military solution to a political crisis."
"As talks are making progress with Pakistan's gracious effort, the US should be wary of being dragged back into quagmire by ill-wishers," Araghchi added. "So should the UAE. Project Freedom is Project Deadlock."
Keep ReadingShow Less
Most Popular