SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FREE NEWSLETTER
Daily news & progressive opinion—funded by the people, not the corporations—delivered straight to your inbox.
5
#000000
#FFFFFF
5
#000000
#FFFFFF
fossil fuels
World Barreling Toward 'Irrecoverable Overshoot of 1.5°C,' Report Warns During COP31
The new Climate Action Tracker (CAT) report, "Without Rapid Action, The World Is Heading to Irrecoverable Overshoot," lays out real-world action based on current policies; pledges and targets from the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) of countries that have signed on to the Paris Agreement; and the "optimistic scenario" based on all announced ambitions.
"Aggregated climate action has now essentially stalled for five consecutive years, with positive and negative actions canceling each other out," says the CAT briefing. "The warming outlook from current policies is leading to 2.7°C in 2100 (slightly up from 2.6°C) as it stood from 2021-2024."
"Our 2030 and 2035 targets scenario that assumes governments meet all their targets remains unchanged at 2.6°C in 2100," the report details. "The round of 2035 NDCs has closed: And it's clear governments have failed to meaningfully improve the outlook for end-of-century warming."
CAT's scenario that includes 2030 and 2035 NDCs as well as long-term targets projects "warming of 2.1°C in 2100, down from 2.2°C last year," the report continues. "Ambitious near- and long-term targets matter, but without credible policies and immediate implementation, they risk becoming empty promises rather than drivers of real-world emission reductions."
"Our optimistic scenario, assuming full implementation of all announced and net-zero targets, remains at 1.9°C in 2100," it stresses. "Even under our most optimistic assessment, if governments were to implement every single national pledge they have made—including the net-zero targets—we will still permanently overshoot the 1.5°C limit and get close to 2°C."
As both greenhouse gas concentrations and the profits of fossil fuel giants have soared while communities around the world face deadly heatwaves, rapidly intensifying hurricanes, rising sea levels, and destructive wildfires—like those that ravaged COP31 host Türkiye in September—scientists have reiterated warnings about the need for sweeping action to cut emissions.
"Continued warming from greenhouse gases emitted from human activities threatens to feed further warming as permafrost, wetlands, and wildfires destabilize and respond by releasing carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide," Ben Poulter, warming-induced emissions program director at Spark Climate Solutions, said in September, when a study he co-authored was published.
"This study provides a critical look at the magnitude of the temperature response," Poulter added, "and a call to action to accelerate the accounting and monitoring of warming-induced emissions to support pathways that phase out fossil emissions to stabilize the planet’s climate."
Bill Hare, CEO of CAT partner organization Climate Analytics, emphasized Thursday that "the stark choice for governments is to either continue to support the fossil fuel industry, which would consign humanity to insurmountable economic damages, rising mortality from heat, and climate-driven diseases and disasters that they are unable to adapt to—or pivot to the solutions which are available and cheaper than ever."
"The imminence of breaching 1.5°C cannot be an excuse to open the door to defeatism—the focus has to be on accelerating action to limit the magnitude and duration of overshoot," he argued. "Every increment of warming above 1.5°C means even more significant consequences across climate, nature and human systems."
The report outlines "five key levers that could cut emissions at the speed and urgency needed to follow a Paris-aligned pathway, limiting the magnitude and duration of overshoot," which are:
- A transition away from fossil fuels;
- Deep methane cuts;
- Rapid renewables-driven economy-wide electrification;
- Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) as a complement to emissions cuts, not a substitute; and
- An end to deforestation.
"Governments collectively are simply not moving fast enough to adopt the policies that would enable us to escape from the emerging overshoot trap," said the lead author of CAT's report, Climate Analytics policy analyst Sarah Heck. "Worse, several are taking their foot off the accelerator and slowing their climate action—or in cases such as the USA, Canada, and New Zealand—rolling it back at a staggering level."
So far this week, Climate Action Network International has given its satirical "Fossil of the Day" award—long used to call out bad actors during climate summits—to New Zealand, for "dismantling its own climate commitments" under Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, as well as "absent leaders of wealthy countries," including Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, and Sweden.
While a key Democratic US senator is attending COP31, President Donald Trump is skipping the summit and has not sent a delegation, even though his country is the world's worst historical climate polluter. UNEP's report from last month highlights the dangers of the pro-fossil fuel agenda that the Republican leader has pursued since returning to power last year, including ditching the Paris Agreement, again.
Trump's ongoing illegal war on Iran has not only led to the deaths of thousands of people but also padded the pockets of those invested in the fossil fuel industry—including himself—while people around the world pay the price at the pump, due to Iran's restrictions on ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
"With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz exposing our vulnerability to geopolitical shocks," said Niklas Höhne of CAT partner organization NewClimate Institute, "the case for renewables and electrification has never been stronger—and it does appear that global emissions could be on the verge of a peak and a much faster decline than we had previously thought."
COP31: Will Countries Finally Deliver on Their Climate Promises?
In the run-up to the event, two major findings have been released:
- Levels of three key greenhouse gases reached record highs in 2025, and
- The richest 0.1% of humanity generates more carbon than almost half the world population combined.
These shocking insights prompted 146 scientists to urge the United Nations to declare climate change an official "global health emergency" and finally force nations to act.
What Are The Objectives Of COP31?
Against the backdrop of increasingly frequent and extreme weather events, water stress, and food insecurity, this COP must prioritize critical mandates on equitable fossil fuel transitions, post-2020 climate finance, and global urban resilience.
This COP must ensure that the newly submitted nationally determined contributions are put into practice while also demanding the urgent submission of outstanding NDCs from parties that delayed their updates.
It will also enact the Climate Implementation Bridge, an initiative to help developing countries translate their high-level NDC commitments into concrete, investable portfolios that can secure international financing.
Murat Kurum has positioned this COP as a vital transition phase in global climate policy. He describes the 1.5°C goal as "a matter of survival. The survival of cultures, history, memories, your homeland, your homes."
The following areas have been flagged as urgent priorities:
- The Clean Energy Transition & Electrification—Transitioning away from fossil fuels, scaling up renewable energy resources, and building resilient energy grids. One target is to raise the share of global energy demand met by electricity from roughly 20-35% by 2035.
- Climate Finance—Kurum has highlighted a massive global adaptation finance gap of $5.6-7.1 trillion. This is the total cumulative cost developing countries need to implement their NDCs by 2030. Nearly four years after the initial agreement of the Loss & Damage Fund at COP17, the fund has failed to materialize for frontline communities.
- Climate-Resilient Cities—Minimizing cities’ exposure to climate risks such as heatwaves through resilient infrastructure, sustainable housing, and low-carbon urban systems. One target is to slash energy intensity in the global building sector by at least 25% by 2035.
- Oceans & Seas—Strengthening marine and coastal resilience. COP31 will work toward an official Antalya Ocean Declaration to advance ocean-based climate solutions, support adaptation for climate-vulnerable coastal and island states, and address how oceans absorb massive amounts of human-generated carbon dioxide and excess heat.
- Food Security—Create dedicated road maps and collaborations linking sustainable agricultural systems, water availability, and rural livelihoods. Provide climate-resilient agricultural practice training to all young farmers globally by 2035.
- Zero Waste and Methane Reduction—Relieving pressure on natural resources, ecosystems, and the climate by cutting waste and reducing dependence on linear production and consumption models. One target is to reduce the increase in waste generation by 50% by 2035.
- Green Industrialization—Boost the use of circular materials in manufacturing and production to at least 15% by 2035.
- Cross-Convention Cooperation—This is the year of the triple COP, which brings together the three UN Rio Conventions for their Conferences of the Parties to tackle the interconnected crises in climate (UNFCCC COP31), biodiversity (CBD COP17), and land (UNCCD COP17). The plan is to integrate circular economies, sustainable agriculture, food security, biodiversity, and green industrial transformations into international policy.
Will a Shared-Presidency Model Help Or Hinder Progress?
Both Türkiye (proposing Antalya) and Australia (proposing Adelaide, in partnership with Pacific Island nations) submitted bids to host COP31 back in 2022. Without consensus on who would host, the process stalled as both nations refused to withdraw their bids.
At COP30, the two countries agreed to split responsibilities and divide leadership. Theoretically, this reduces the risk of negotiation gridlock, brings two very different perspectives into the mix, and allows both sides to hyperfocus on their responsibilities.
It also comes with its fair share of concerns, if the two presidents misalign on major priorities such as the urgency of fossil fuel phaseouts or the mechanisms of debt-free climate finance, it could lead to bureaucratic fragmentation, diluting accountability, and stalling consensus.
The Role Of Türkiye
Murat Kurum, the Turkish minister of environment, urbanization, and climate change and COP31 president-designate, speaks. (Photo by UNclimatechange / Flickr/ CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan sought the COP31 hosting rights to elevate Türkiye's global profile and position the country as a major bridge and mediator between developed and developing nations.
The focus was on making COP31 a "COP of implementation," not on bringing in more pledges.
Türkiye's bid complements its own national initiatives like its 2053 net-zero target, new national climate laws, plans for an emissions trading system, and commitments to increase renewable energy investments.
When Türkiye voluntarily stepped aside in 2021 to let the United Kingdom host COP26 in Glasgow, it felt it had a strong claim and was unwilling to back down.
Türkiye will steer the summit's overall direction and manage event logistics, infrastructure, and the massive green trade fair in Antalya (Growtech), with the Leaders' Summit planned across Antalya and Istanbul.
It is also responsible for the non-negotiated Action Agenda, pushing for strong, measurable implementation and important side deals.
The Role Of Australia
Chris Bowen, the Australian minister for climate change and energy and COP31 president of negotiations, speaks. (Photo by UNclimatechange / Flickr/ CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)
Australia’s bid for COP31 was a chance to reposition itself as a clean energy superpower, build regional goodwill, and counter rising geopolitical competition from China.
It proposed an unprecedented co-hosting arrangement with Pacific Island nations to amplify the voices of the world's most climate-vulnerable communities, acting as a heavyweight champion for its neighbors.
Their priorities are to address the existential concerns of Small Island Developing States (SIDS), including loss-and-damage funding and rapid divestment from fossil fuels.
"It is like taking a glass of water to a burning house if we do not urgently act to address the root cause of the existential threat facing Tuvalu, Fiji, and all Pacific countries: fossil fuel expansion," said Bowen.
Australia is a shining example of the energy transition in action. By the end of 2025, renewable energy has provided well over half of Australia's electricity needs. Today, 1 in 3 Australian homes generate their own power from rooftop solar panels.
As President of Negotiations, Australia will work with countries to build consensus, draft texts, and lead formal policy negotiations. Australia is also working with the past presidencies to deliver on key initiatives like the Belém Mission to 1.5°C and the Global Implementation Accelerator.
Australia's approach will integrate First Nations knowledge and leadership, and it has selected Sally Higgins as the COP31 presidency youth climate champion.
The State Of The Climate Crisis
Nearly 50 parties have still not filed their updated NDCs. Major nations such as India, Argentina, Egypt, Iran, and Vietnam missed the standard deadlines, signalling an alarming lack of political will to pursue ambitious action under the Paris Agreement.
COP29 in Baku was billed as the "Finance COP," yet developed nations fell far short of what was needed to meet mitigation targets. COP30 in Belém finished without securing binding, high-level pathways to funnel capital to the Global South.
The UN framework has repeatedly and frustratingly failed to mandate an outright phaseout of fossil fuels. Recent host nations with strong economic ties to oil and gas have successfully diluted negotiation language.
In light of this, the climate crisis continues to accelerate:
- In 2024, global greenhouse gas emissions reached a record 57.7 gigatons of carbon dioxide, a 2.3% increase from the previous year.
- Global carbon dioxide emissions in 2025 rose by 1.1% compared with 2024, setting a new all-time annual high.
- August 2026 tied as the joint-warmest month globally (matching July 2023), with global surface air temperatures reaching 1.65°C above preindustrial levels.
- The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has confirmed that the world is experiencing a historically powerful El Niño event dubbed a "super" El Niño. Record sea-surface temperatures are triggering widespread severe weather extremes, including severe droughts in parts of Africa and South America, disrupted monsoons in Asia, and intense heatwaves globally.
- The first four months of 2026 witnessed a staggering 150 million hectares burned by wildfires globally, roughly 50% above recent historic averages.
- Under current policies, global warming is projected to reach 2.8°C this century. Even if all national climate pledges were met, this figure is still projected to be 2.3-2.5°C.
Youth At COP31
Young people participate in a school climate strike on May 24, 2019. (Photo by Garry Knight)
Children and young people are disproportionately affected by climate change; therefore, their voices are particularly important at major climate and biodiversity conferences.
Today's decisions have long-term consequences for their health, education, well-being, and future opportunities. Intergenerational justice looks at how present generations affect past and future people.
On July 23, 2025, the International Court of Justice issued the advisory opinion, which was unanimously adopted by all 15 judges: "Nations have a legal duty to combat the planetary crisis."
This COP31 recognizes children and young people as important stakeholders and constituencies. Official mechanisms have been established to support youth participation:
- Presidency Youth Climate Champion (PYCC)—Sally Higgins serves as the COP31 youth champion, amplifying youth voices and ensuring inclusion in climate diplomacy alongside international climate envoys.
- EU Youth Policy Dialogue—Held on October 1, 2026 in Brussels, young representatives discussed intergenerational equity, AI energy demands, nature protection, and climate finance ahead of COP31.
- YOUNGO—The official children and youth constituency of the UNFCCC. It brings together over a million young members worldwide and helps train young advocates to participate in international negotiations, coordinate regional chapters, and ensure youth voices are heard inside the official rooms. They will co-organize the Global Conference of Youth (COY) ahead of COP31 to draft the Global Youth Statement and spearhead the official Youth-Led Climate Forum (YLCF) inside the COP venue.
Major youth organisations and umbrella networks driving the youth climate agenda at COP31 include the European Youth Forum, Generation Climate Europe, Youth Environment Europe (YEE), Regional Conference of Youth (RCOY) Networks, World Food Forum Youth Network, and UNICEF Climate Youth Tracks.
COP31: It’s Now Or Never
People in Edinburgh, Scotland participate in a march coinciding with COP27 on November 12, 2022. (Photo by Friends of the Earth Scotland / CC BY 2.0)
For years, global frustration has grown with these climate conferences; observers, climate scientists, and world leaders point to a persistent pattern of failure in climate finance, the fossil fuel transition, and consensus deadlocks.
COP28 and COP29 saw record-breaking attendance from thousands of fossil fuel lobbyists, diluting the voices of civil society and marginalized youth delegates. It is no wonder they were labelled a farce.
Whether the COP31 unprecedented co-hosting arrangement will help or hinder progress remains to be seen.
Both countries are already drawing criticism for expanding their coal and gas supply chains and omitting any mention of a global fossil fuel phaseout from their official pre-summit communications.
Since 2022, Australia has approved a major Hunter Valley coal mine expansion and 37 new fossil fuel projects.
Türkiye has plans to actively expand its domestic coal and gas capacity by 30% by 2035.
Pacific nations have also expressed their concerns about the joint presidency and the weakening of Australian regional solidarity. They worry the spotlight will shift away from sea-level rise and the vulnerability of small island nations.
On a positive note, the new voluntary "Electrification" pledge, which should help counter the stalemate on phasing out fossil fuels, gives us cause for hope. Another encouraging sign is that record funding for the global energy transition and renewable investment in 2025 reached $2.3 trillion.
It is also hoped that new transparency and funding disclosure rules introduced for delegates will limit the number of fossil fuel lobbyists delaying progress.
Drawing attention to the alarming global rise of militarism, COP31 President-Designate Murat Kurum publicly argued that wealthy countries need to spend much more on climate action than the 5% of GDP NATO members target for defense, warning that climate change is the ultimate security threat.
Without definitive progress at COP31, climate pledges, and indeed the COP conferences themselves, risk collapsing into broken promises and losing public trust. Influential figures such as Greta Thunberg, Chris Packham, Ban Ki-moon, and Mary Robinson have already declared the summits unfit for purpose.
Quite simply, time has run out for more empty words.
Most Popular