White House Fought NIE Over an Old Charge
WASHINGTON, Dec 10 (IPS) - The reported White House resistance to the National Intelligence Estimate’s conclusion that Iran had abandoned a nuclear weapons programme in 2003 was an effort to save a political tactic the George W. Bush administration had been using since early 2004, despite the absence of an intelligence analysis to support it.
The charge that Iran had a secret weapons programme was originally devised to build international support for sanctions — and even potential use of force — against Iran at a time when Iran was not enriching uranium.
But in 2006, the hawks added the allegation of a secret Iranian uranium enrichment programme paralleling the publicly acknowledged programme to bolster the argument that Iran must not be allowed to have any enrichment, even if carefully limited to far below a weapon-related level and intrusively monitored.
The original Bush administration argument was that Iranian uranium enrichment at Natanz was prima facie evidence of a “nuclear weapons programme”. On Feb. 23, 2003 the State Department charged that Iran had exhibited “an ambitious rush to develop a nuclear fuel cycle, whose true purpose can only be to produce fissile material for its nuclear weapons programme”.
That line took advantage of the widespread impression that the Natanz facility was illegal when it was revealed by the anti-regime National Council of Resistance in mid-2002, even though its construction was in compliance with Iran’s safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
When Iran voluntarily suspended its programme of uranium enrichment as part of its agreement with Britain, France and Germany in October 2003, however, it forced the Bush administration to come up with the idea of a secret Iranian nuclear weapons programme.
It was John Bolton, then undersecretary of state for arms control, who articulated the new charge. He told a press conference on Mar. 3, 2004, “We think the Iranians are still trying to conceal a clandestine weapons programme…”
Bolton repeated the charge before the House International Relations Committee on May 24, 2004, declaring, “The United States strongly believes that Iran has a clandestine programme to produce nuclear weapons.”
After the Iranian enrichment suspension was extended under a new agreement with Britain, France and Germany in November 2004, U.S. Ambassador to the IAEA Gregory Schulte reaffirmed the U.S. charge that Iran had a clandestine nuclear weapons programme.
But the Bush administration’s charge was not backed by any intelligence assessment. That was a major issue at stake when the National Intelligence Council commissioned a new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran in January 2005.
Significantly, while the 2005 Iran NIE was being developed, the public charges of a covert weapons programme stopped, apparently on orders from Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
The new intelligence estimate, produced in May 2005, concluded, “It is the judgment of the intelligence community that, left to its own devices, Iran is determined to build nuclear weapons.” But it remained uncertain about whether the evidence of “clandestine work” by the military amounted to a “nuclear weapons programme”, as reported by Dafna Linzer in the Washington Post Aug. 2, 2005.
Equally important was the NIE’s conclusion that Iran would not have enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon until 2010 to 2015. That timeline, as Linzer reported, reflected “fading suspicions that Iran’s military has been running its own separate and covert enrichment effort”.
Administration hardliners wanted the NIE to support their allegation of a secret enrichment programme to back up their pressure on Britain, France and Germany to reject Iran’s 2005 proposal to the European three for an agreement under which it would limit uranium enrichment to the low levels appropriate to nuclear energy and submit to an inspection regime proposed by the Europeans. A key administration argument against such an agreement was that the experience gained from even a very limited enrichment programme could be diverted into the alleged underground enrichment programme.
The key findings of the NIE were never made public — a decision which set that NIE apart from others covering politically sensitive subjects. Keeping them secret gave greater credibility to allegations of a secret enrichment programme by Israel’s Mossad. Israeli intelligence officials told a number of journalists, including Seymour Hersh of The New Yorker, that there was a second nuclear programme in Iran run secretly by the military and the revolutionary guards that included both enrichment and weaponisation activities. Israel used the parallel enrichment programme charge to support its claim that Iran was much closer to having the capability to make a nuclear weapon than had been suggested by U.S. intelligence.
When work on a new NIE on the Iranian nuclear programme began in the second half of 2006, the alleged covert nuclear weapons programme was again the top issue.
By November 2006, the Central Intelligence Agency had already circulated an assessment within the intelligence community that rejected the covert weapons programme thesis, as Hersh reported in late November. However, Vice President Dick Cheney and his aides were trying to exclude the CIA’s assessment from the NIE, a senior intelligence official told Hersh.
The CIA had found no evidence for such a programme, but Cheney and the White House were insisting, according to Hersh’s story, that the failure to find a secret nuclear weapons programme in Iran was merely evidence of the skill with which the Iranians were hiding it.
Another tactic used by Cheney was to cite a new claim by Israeli intelligence that its spies inside Iran had learned that Iran had developed and tested a trigger device for a nuclear bomb. Conveniently, the alleged tests would not leave any trace of radioactivity, thus explaining why the sophisticated radiation monitoring devices placed in Iran by the United States and Israel had not detected it.
The CIA did not regard the report as reliable, especially in the absence of details that would allow verification. But Cheney asked for the original raw Israeli intelligence report, according to Hersh — the same thing Cheney and top Pentagon officials had done in constructing their case for the invasion of Iraq in 2002.
Cheney’s tactics bottled up the NIE until early 2007. Last spring, however, the intelligence community came up with much more compelling evidence that no secret nuclear weapons programme — including covert enrichment-related activities — had existed after fall 2003.
The White House responded by arguing that the new evidence might be based on an Iranian disinformation campaign, which forced a long process of proving that it was not information deliberately planted by Iran. That held up the acceptance of the NIE for several more months.
Recent briefings by intelligence officials have carefully refrained from naming any particular White House official who pushed the disinformation theory, but it was Cheney who was in charge of managing intelligence issues in order to protect the existing policy line.
Gareth Porter is an historian and national security policy analyst. His latest book, “Perils of Dominance: Imbalance of Power and the Road to War in Vietnam“, was published in June 2005.
© 2007 Inter Press Service
so Cheney Bush and Bolton caught red handed trying to lie and munipulate the USA into another needless war…impeach these lying sacks of shit NOW!! and have them take that enabling WHORE Pelosi with them.
What the FUCK is it going to take to get this stuff on front page in American newspapers?! What is it going to take to awaken the American public to the destruction all around them by this group of criminals? What is it going to take to get these bastards behind bars or, better, executed for treason?!
Friends, it is this simple: Dennis Kucinich MUST GET ELECTED Americans who are asleep MUST be awakened–talk to them! Dollars must be scraped from deep in our pockets no matter how much you can find there and given to Dennis K., Cindy Sheehan, and OTHER Progressive candidates.
We must talk, write, call, and slip out of our comfort zones to make the 2007 primaries a Kucinich victory! I believe that this election is even MORE critical than the “anybody-but-Bush” fiasco with “electable” Kerry bailing without a fight.
I really don’t believe there will be any turning around after this election cycle if the Progressive population doesn’t fight for their voice and their candidate.
Downing street memo showed they lied, their own White House spokesman said they lied.
Just another drop in the big bucket of lies that never goes anywhere.
Move along.
Nothing to see here.
Kudos to all who have contributed. Our country has been eroding for many years. NAFTA, GAAT, THE IRAQ WAR, DEREGULATION OF EVERY POSSIBLE ORGANIZATION, SUV’S, HUMMERS, AND OTHER SMALL TANK-LIKE VEHICLES THAT ARE KILLING THE ENVIRONMENT, All of the above have created situations that are contributing to the erosion process. Countries around the globe have lost respect for our country and yet we are still instilling hatred in our citizens. The current administration has been and will continue to destroy this Earth as we know it unless The American Population takes action. Indictments must be handed down to The Bush Administration, and Nancy Pelosi for witholding information regarding water torture. It’s the only way we can stop destruction in its path. Elect a real president this November, Dennis Kucinich. He is the only candidate who has not been up for sale to anyone. Thanks for reading and Merry Christmas!
If bush and cheney started walking down the street in broad daylight shooting innocent people ‘for fun’ Pelosi still wouldn’t impeach them. There is no crime they could commit where she would. That is what she means by it’s ‘off the table’.
Celebrity said: What the FUCK is it going to take to get this stuff on front page in American newspapers?! What is it going to take to awaken the American public to the destruction all around them by this group of criminals? What is it going to take to get these bastards behind bars or, better, executed for treason?!”
Don’t your folks get it? It’s all about Shucks and Yawn. Nothing to see here folks move along, “go shopping,” etc. What’s whats their face’s latest escapades? What flag drapped coffins? Shop till you droop. Extra o intended.
It isn’t treason if it helps the ultra-rich serve their corporate masters.
Peace Offensive doesn’t equal War.
Ethnic cleansing doesn’t equal murder.
Torture doesn’t equal torture.
Lies equal truth.
“Downing street memo showed they lied, their own White House spokesman said they lied.”
Anyone see that Daily show awhile back about the Attorney firings?
They had Tony Snow on record, on tape… in front of America “They weren’t fired for political reasons.”
Two months later, him saying “I never said they weren’t fired for political reasons.”
And ultimately whats the point when they can just simply claim “I don’t recall, I don’t remember.”
Just like when Rumsfeld was caught “Iraq is an imminent threat to America.” Months later, “We never said Iraq was an imminent threat.”
And both times when you show them the take they say something like “Uhh, well, you really didn’t know what I meant.”
Since waterboarding is the fad nowadays, is supposidly NOT torture, and is appearently a perfectly legal and constitutional practice, maybe a little waterboarding will jar their memories?
We don’t need to stoop to their level and waterboard them. History will take care of them. It is unfortunate that they will never know the ignominy and repugnance that current and future generations hold for them, but that is part of their system - Never venture into unfriendly waters. But, none of their grandchildren will be able to pick up a text without a reading about the cretinous, greedy, dickheads their forebears were. Fortunately, our country has a history of losing its way but finding it again. We will replace these self-serving jackanapes and our country will prosper once more.
Almost ten TRILLION in debt, the mighty greenback is practically worthless, our army, includng our National Guard is a broken sword, our Constitution really is just a G-damn piece of paper, we have lost our freedom of speech and our rights to a fair and speedy trial, torture of prisoners is acceptable, we are on the very edge of being a Police State and the Blackwater police are owned by Halliburton and Kellog.
Our ‘free’ press and the media is owned by the Neo-Cons also. Our Congress has approved all of the above and we are planning to start aother war, for control of oil, and our president talks to Jesus every day and follows his advice. The average American is oblivious of all of it. What in HELL happened? Oh, I think I may have just answered that question.
No press reports? Checkout “Operation Mockingbird”
Fool me once…never get fooled again.
Let’s put on our critical thinking caps so we can articulate a good argument to rebut the administration. Bolton and the rest “strongly believe” Iran has a secret weapons program. Fine, tell me where the machinery for this program is. What kind of machinery. How pure are they enriching uranium. Is it enough to make a bomb. Where did you get the information. Let’s hear from them. And while your at it I’d like to hear from some more credible sources.
After those questions are answered maybe I’ll take them seriously. I write this because a good chunk of the populace don’t know how to think. The only people that will teach them is you and me.
“Keeping them secret gave greater credibility to allegations of a secret enrichment programme by Israel’s Mossad.”
Shades of the WMD charges against Iraq. Make allegations, then withdraw the inspectors so the allegations, unverifiable, can be hyped.
Common Dreams stood up; Bush and Cheney stood down; slam dunk.
Nothing matters, no truth uncovered will make a difference. The Cheney/Bush machine is unfazed by any revelation
What we need to do, is hire some gal to catch Bushes eye and then start giving him BJs. Then she can tell Linda Tripp her crying story, that will get him impeached.
Hey people! How ya doing out there in politics land!
I really get how all of us are so unhappy with our creepy “leaders”, but I have news for you… They are just front men for large business interests. Just like hitler, mussolini, lbj etc. etc. You are all furious at the wrong dudes! why rebel against a bunch of puppets? FOLLOW THE MONEY!!!
And the best part is that the MONEY is hanging out at the pie house in marina del rey, or some uptown bar in manhattan, and the starbucks on marthas vinyard! no secret service, no military escort and their all numb from their meds!
They are posing around in the society pages, them rockerfellers and them mellons and them rothschilds, sure the bushies are in there but they are blow ins from wwII war money.. peasants really.
So stop screaming for the puppet head! go for the HAND, at least take a few fingers. FOLLOW THE MONEY thats their master…. blessings
Quit trying to drag Bu$h the inferior into the reality based universe. In their world they are bigger heroes than Superman.
So what they want a nuclear waepons, we have tons of those. Until we dismantle all our nuclear waepons we can’t imposed on others what we are not respecting…peace!
If this world was without weapons, guns and such, we wouldn’t fight each others. it’s like the stone age. So much for a civilized world.
“The United States strongly believes that Iran has a clandestine programme to produce nuclear weapons.” John Bolton, 5/24/04. “And the fact that there isn’t even a sliver of evidence to support this conclusion, confirms the fact that our suspicions are fully justified.”
Where’s “Curveball” when you need him (again)?
For Mr. Thomas Albright
“Fine, tell me where the machinery for this program is. What kind of machinery. How pure are they enriching uranium. Is it enough to make a bomb. Where did you get the information. Let’s hear from them. And while your at it I’d like to hear from some more credible sources.”
They have enriching machinery at the Natanz site. The process of enriching uranium starts with “yellow cake” - ore that has been chemically purified to include only uranium oxide (U3O8). This is then converted chemically into a gas, uranium hexafluoride (UF6). This gas is spun in a centrifuge to separate the isotope of interest U235 from the rest of the uranium.
Where the Bush Administration argument breaks down - You need hundreds if not thousands of centrifuges to produce siginificant quantities of weapons grade (97% pure U235) uranium. Fuel grade (enriched to approximately 3%)is much easier to achieve.
The amount of enriched uranium produced by the Iranians depends on the level of enrichment they are trying to achieve. The last I heard from the IAEA, they had about 300 centrifuges on line. You could produce gram quantities (per week) of fuel (3%) with that set-up. It would be the next generation’s problem before they ever produced enough to make a bomb (pounds of 97%) with the Natanz establishment.
Occum’s razor stipulates that the simplest answer to a question is often the correct one. The Iranian’s say the facility is for research. The quantities of enriched uranium that can be produced by the facility are only useful for research.
So, obviously, they are building weapons (Bush, quite obviously never studied logic).
Ken
Bombs or not, the US has no moral basis for demanding who can and who cannot possess this technology, nor is it realistic to keep any country perpetually in the pre-nuclear age.
We either lead by example or we lead by tyranny — for a short while at best. Unfortunately, this choice has fallen to the M.I.C., Bilderbergs, or whoever the hell they are, not to the wise.