Poll Has AOC Leading Schumer by Nearly 20 Points in 2028 New York Primary
"What AOC is doing is leadership—and people see that," said one observer.
A poll released Friday from the progressive think tank Data for Progress has Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez besting Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, also a Democrat, by 19 points in a hypothetical matchup in the 2028 New York primary for a U.S. Senate seat.
According to the poll, which was was first shared exclusively with Politico, 55% of voters said they would cast a ballot for Ocasio-Cortez or leaned toward supporting her, and 36% said they would support Schumer or leaned toward supporting him, with 9% undecided.
The only subgroup that supported Schumer over Ocasio-Cortez were moderates, who favored Schumer 50%-35%, with 15% undecided. Ocasio-Cortez carried all other subgroups with an outright majority, except for voters over the age of 45, 49% of whom said they would support her or leaned toward supporting her.
The poll—while several years out from the actual race—comes in the wake of Schumer's decision to throw his support behind a Republican-backed spending bill in early March, a move that roiled his own party and prompted calls for him to step aside from his leadership position in the Senate.
The episode also sparked murmurs among some Democrats that Ocasio-Cortez should consider a primary bid against Schumer in 2028.
The poll was conducted March 26-31 and surveyed 767 likely Democratic primary voters in New York state. According to Data for Progress, the polling indicated that the hypothetical matchup between Ocasio-Cortez and Schumer is "relatively static" and does not shift when voters are offered more information about the respective candidates.
Ocasio-Cortez recently declined to speak about a potential run for Senate in 2028, according to Politico.
"Replacing Chuck Schumer with AOC would be an incredible upgrade. I guess we'll have to wait four more years…," wrote Bhaskar Sunkara, president of The Nation.
Zephyr Teachout, a professor at the Fordham University School of Law, shared Politico's reporting on the poll and wrote: "Good morning to leadership and fighting oligarchy!"
"What I mean is that what AOC is doing is leadership—and people see that," added Teachout, who also highlighted that the poll found that an overwhelming majority of respondents, 84%, want their leaders to do more to resist the actions of U.S. President Donald Trump.
Another observer, market researcher Adam Carlson, highlighted that despite Schumer's loss in the hypothetical race, most respondent subgroups still view him favorably, according to the poll. Besides "very liberal" voters and those between ages 18-44, Schumer stands at over 50% "favorable" among all other subgroups surveyed.
"People just want a changing of the guard," said Carlson.
