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"A roadmap for delivering on 1.5°C without a credible fossil fuel phaseout at its core is hollow," said one campaigner.
Climate justice organizers on Tuesday expressed some cautious optimism that a draft text out of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Belém, Brazil contained "building blocks" of a climate justice package that is needed to draw down planet-heating fossil fuel emissions and help the poorest and least-polluting countries confront the climate emergency—but advocates said that with just three days to go until the summit is over, the document still falls far short of delivering solutions.
The draft text, released by COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago, includes references to a "transition away from fossil fuels," and calls for annual reviews of countries' Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the efforts they pledge to make to reduce their emissions.
But a day after campaigners expressed optimism about 62 countries and country groups endorsing Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's call for a Transition Away From Fossil Fuels (TAFF) Roadmap, 350.org condemned the draft text for mentioning the roadmap only in paragraph 44—and excluding a fossil fuel phaseout from that section of the proposal.
The TAFF Roadmap, according to the draft, would recognize that "finance, capacity-building, and technology transfer are critical enablers of climate action."
The text also calls for "a high-level ministerial roundtable" where countries would discuss national circumstances, pathways to limiting planetary heating to 1.5°C over preindustrial temperatures, and approaches to supporting government in developing just transition roadmaps, "including to progressively overcome their dependency on fossil fuels and towards halting and reversing deforestation."
But 350.org condemned that call as an "exceptionally weak," sole reference to a fossil fuel transition, warning that "a mandated ministerial and a report... offer symbolism, not action."
"For the decision to carry credibility, the presidency must embed a fossil fuel transition roadmap directly into the 1.5°C response, not relegate it to the margins," said the group in its analysis of the document. "The roadmap must be placed in the section addressing the 1.5°C ambition gap, where it is currently absent."
Andreas Sieber, associate director of policy and campaigns for 350.org, said that "the draft text may contain the right ingredients, but it’s been assembled in a way that leaves a bitter aftertaste."
"For the decision to carry credibility, the presidency must embed a fossil fuel transition roadmap directly into the 1.5°C response, not relegate it to the margins. The roadmap must be placed in the section addressing the 1.5°C ambition gap, where it is currently absent."
"A roadmap for delivering on 1.5°C without a credible fossil fuel phaseout at its core is hollow. The COP30 presidency must heed the many parties, including President Lula, calling for a clear transition pathway and put it where it belongs: at the center of the 1.5°C response, balanced with adequate finance," said Sieber. "Without this, the overall effort will fall short.”
The group emphasized that a credible COP30 final text will include "a balanced package that delivers climate finance, strengthened adaptation measures, and a clear road map for phasing out fossil fuels."
"Without all three pillars in place, a durable and effective agreement will not be possible," said 350.org
The text mentions climate finance 26 times, the Guardian reported, and urges wealthy countries to clearly lay out their plans to provide financial assistance to the Global South—at a ministerial roundtable in one option included in the document, or through a "Belém Global De-Risking and Project Preparation and Development Facility," which would "catalyze climate finance and implementation in developing country parties by translating Nationally Determined Contributions and national adaptation plans into project pipelines."
But 350.org noted that pledges made to a global adaptation fund on Monday "once again fell short with only $133 million secured out of the $300 million target."
Fanny Petitbon, France team lead for 350.org, warned that "adaptation has long been forgotten in climate finance," and called on the presidency to ensure it has a central role in the final text.
"Crucially, the call to triple adaptation finance must stay," said Petitbon. "There is no credible ambition without supporting communities already facing the devastating impacts of the climate emergency. The presidency has begun to respond to strong demands for developed countries to pay their climate debt, which is key for rebuilding trust in all negotiating rooms."
"But the text still lacks a plan to fully deliver on the collective climate finance goal agreed upon in Baku [at COP29]—ignoring innovative sources of finance like taxing major polluters and the superrich," Petitibon added, "and fails to guarantee direct access for the most vulnerable, including Indigenous peoples."
At Oil Change International, global policy leader Romain Ioualalen said the options related to fossil fuels presented in the draft were "wildly unacceptable and a blatant dereliction of duty while the world burns."
"We don’t need a COP decision to convene a workshop or ministerial roundtable on fossil fuels. What we need is a clear collective direction of travel on how countries intend to phase out fossil fuels based on equity, and how rich Global North countries will provide finance and support to the countries that need it," said Ioualalen.
"Ministers must fix this mess," he added, "and deliver the progress that we need to make the fair and funded transition away from fossil fuels they promised in Dubai [at COP28] a reality.”
"States have a moral and legal obligation to end these fuel flows immediately," one campaigner said.
A total of 25 countries sent 323 shipments of oil to Israel while it was committing genocide in Gaza, according to a new analysis released by Oil Change International on Thursday.
The report, Behind the Barrel: An Update on the Origins of Israel’s Fuel Supply, was launched at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) in Belém, Brazil. It concluded that the countries sent almost 21.2 million metric tons of both crude and refined oil to Israel between November 1, 2023 and October 1, 2025 while Israel was conducting a campaign of bombing and mass starvation against Gaza that killed over 69,000 people.
"Governments permitted fuel supplies to Israel even after it became clear Israel was committing genocide in Gaza, a finding now backed by a UN commission," Bronwen Tucker of Oil Change International said in a statement. "States have a moral and legal obligation to end these fuel flows immediately. The same fossil fuel system that drives the climate crisis also drives war, occupation, and genocide."
The countries that supplied the most crude oil were Azerbaijan through Turkey and Kazakhstan through Russia, accounting for around 70% of shipments. Russia supplied the most refined oil at nearly 1.5 million metric tons, followed by Greece at over 0.5 million metric tons and the US at over 0.4 million metric tons. However, the US was the only country that supplied Israel with JP-8, a specialized military jet fuel.
"The same system that burns the planet also fuels Israel’s genocidal machine and upholds its colonial regime of illegal occupation and apartheid."
The US "sent nine shipments totaling 360,000 tonnes of JP-8, as well as two shipments of diesel, all from Valero’s Bill Greehey Refinery in Corpus Christi, Texas," the report found.
"A genocide needs media complicity, government complicity, weapons, funding, but it also needs oil to keep operating, and we need to stop that oil from flowing there," said Leandro Lanfredi, Rio de Janeiro director of the National Federation of Oil Workers Brasil, during a press briefing unveiling the report at COP30.
The report argued that the nations who sent oil to Israel acted in violation of their obligations under international law, with some continuing the shipments even after the International Court of Justice (ICJ) said that Israel's actions were illegal in July 2024 and a United Nations commission determined that Israel had committed genocide in Gaza in September 2025.
“The obligation of states to comply with the ICJ interim order flow directly from Article I of the Genocide Convention, which requires states to undertake [actions] ‘to prevent and to punish genocide,'" Irene Pietropaoli, senior fellow in business and human rights at the British Institute of International and Comparative Law, told Oil Change in an email. "The ICJ Order finding ‘a real and imminent risk that irreparable prejudice will be caused to the rights found by the court to be plausible’ means that states are now aware of the risk of genocide being committed in Gaza. States must consider that their military or other assistance to Israel’s military operations in Gaza may put them at a risk of being complicit in genocide under the Genocide Convention.”
Mohammed Usrof, executive director of the Palestinian Institute for Climate Strategy, said: “Behind the Barrel confirms what Palestinians and climate justice movements have long said: Fossil fuel supply chains are weapons of war. Governments and corporations that continue to trade oil, diesel, and jet fuel with Israel—even through intermediaries—are enabling genocide. States must impose a full energy embargo and close the legal loopholes that make complicity profitable."
At the panel announcing the report, speakers called out the hypocrisy of nations who try to present themselves as climate leaders while sending money to Israel and companies like Maersk who attend COPs while facilitating those shipments. For example, Brazil, which is hosting COP30, has not directly shipped oil to Israel since March 2024. However, it does send crude oil to a refinery in Sardinia that then exports to Israel.
"We don't want any single drop of oil to get to Israel."
"Behind every barrel of oil is a trace of blood and behind every shipment is a logistic of genocide, and we need to recognize how it all starts, and we need to recognize the complicity of the companies, the corporations, and the governments that continue acting, especially in spaces such as COP," Usrof said during the briefing.
At the same time, advocates noted that the same fossil fuel companies profit from both climate collapse and genocide.
"The fossil fuel industry lies at the core of today’s global crisis, driving climate collapse, militarization, and genocide. The same system that burns the planet also fuels Israel’s genocidal machine and upholds its colonial regime of illegal occupation and apartheid," said Ana Sánchez, general coordinator for the Global Energy Embargo for Palestine, in a statement.
Sánchez continued: "From oil fields to shipping routes, fossil capitalism turns profit into power over life itself. At COP30, we remind the world that energy justice is inseparable from liberation: ending these fuel flows is not just a moral imperative but a necessary act of decolonization. People everywhere are rising to build a new global order that puts life above the privilege of business as usual.”
In particular, the panelists held up the example of workers in Italy who conducted general strikes in solidarity with Gaza.
Partly inspired by the Italian strikes, Lanfredi said his trade union had recently voted to oppose any oil reaching Israel from Brazil.
"We need a growing workers' movement worldwide... for an energy embargo in support of the Palestinian people. We don't want any single drop of oil to get to Israel," he said.
Usrof encouraged people living in all complicit countries to "realize that they have the power to resist at the docks, at each of the conduits of power, the conduits of oil and gas and energy in general."
Shady Khalil of Oil Change International concluded: "The call is clear: We are calling for countries to act on their legal and moral obligation to stop providing fossil fuel to Israel and stop contributing to this genocide and join their people."
“It’s astonishing that in the two years since countries agreed in Dubai to transition off fossil fuels, the US is leading the abandonment of affordable renewables for deadly oil and gas," said one advocate.
Climate advocates on Monday said a new report from three climate think tanks reveals how "just how reckless" some of the world's biggest polluters are when it comes to oil, gas, and coal extraction—which they are planning to ramp up in the coming years despite pledging to take steps to avoid catastrophic fossil-fueled planetary heating a decade ago.
Ten years after the Paris agreement on keeping global warming well below 2°C and just two years after the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28), where countries agreed for the first time to transition "away from fossil fuels," the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) joined Climate Analytics and the International Institute for Sustainable Development in releasing its latest Production Gap Report—and revealed that powerful governments are in fact moving in the opposite direction.
"Governments plan to produce 120% the volume of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, and 77% more than would be consistent with 2°C," the report found.
In their last analysis in 2023, the groups found a 110% and 69% gap over the 1.5°C and 2°C limits, respectively.
The groups analyzed the 20 largest producers of fossil fuels around the world—including the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, Russia, and Canada—that are responsible for 80% of fossil fuel extraction.
Only three of the countries—Norway, the UK, and Australia—currently have plans to reduce oil and gas production by 2030 compared with 2023 levels. Eleven of them—including the US, Germany, and Saudi Arabia—are planning for higher production of at least one type of fossil fuel.
"Trump is fulfilling his dream of petrostate authoritarianism, backed by oil and gas billionaires. Unless we fight to stop it, the whole world is going to pay the price."
Derik Broekhoff, the lead author of the report and a senior scientist at SEI, said in a statement that "while many countries have committed to a clean energy transition, many others appear to be stuck using a fossil-fuel-dependent playbook, planning even more production than they were two years ago.”
The authors stressed that fossil fuel-producing countries are persisting in oil, gas, and coal extraction even as industries know "fossil fuels are on their last legs."
"Clean energy attracted $2 trillion in investment last year—$800 billion more than fossil fuels, and a 70% increase since the Paris agreement," reads the report. "In 2024, 92% of new global power capacity came from renewables, which undercut fossil fuels on price, efficiency, and emissions—even with subsidies artificially keeping fossil fuel prices down."
Neil Grant, a senior expert at Climate Analytics, noted that less demand for fossil fuels could make them cheaper, which could prolong the transition to renewable energy that the vast majority of the world population supports, according to one poll last year.
"We are in the foothills of an energy transition that is going to reshape fossil fuel demand,” Grant told The Guardian. “But many governments are thinking in terms of a world where the energy transition happens very incrementally. There’s a lot of danger, [including that] the voice of the fossil fuel lobby only gets louder and holds us back from this change to a cleaner, better, greener economy. That would lead to climate chaos or significant negative economic impacts.”
"Governments are blundering backwards towards our fossil past," said Grant in a statement, but "rapid reductions are possible, feasible, and they would make our lives better."
Emily Ghosh, a program director at SEI, warned that to limit planetary heating to 1.5°C, "fossil fuel production should have peaked and started to fall."
"Every year of delay significantly increases the pressure," she told The Guardian, adding that a "course correction" is urgently needed.
Jean Su, director of the Energy Justice program at the Center for Biological Diversity, pointed to US President Donald Trump's climate policy, including his move to end tax credits for solar panels and electric vehicles and to cancel the construction of an offshore wind farm.
"Trump is fulfilling his dream of petrostate authoritarianism, backed by oil and gas billionaires. Unless we fight to stop it, the whole world is going to pay the price," said Su.
“This report shows just how reckless the U.S. and other countries are in doubling down on fossil fuels,” she added. “It’s astonishing that in the two years since countries agreed in Dubai to transition off fossil fuels, the U.S. is leading the abandonment of affordable renewables for deadly oil and gas."
Kelly Trout, research director at Oil Change International, emphasized that "it is not yet too late to act."
"With the US driving the majority of global projected oil and gas expansion over the next decade, governments must resist bowing to the Trump administration’s pro-fossil fuel agenda, and instead seize the chance to rapidly shift course," said Trout. "Countries can still deliver the just energy transition away from fossil fuels they promised us two years ago, with other rich Global North producers taking the lead."
The report was released as Colombia announced at the UN General Assembly its intention to host the First International Conference for the Phaseout of Fossil Fuels, aligning with the International Court of Justice's historic advisory opinion this year recognizing countries' legal obligation to protect the climate.
As advocates called for the Production Gap Report to be "both a warning and a guide," Tzeporah Berman of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative said Colombia had signaled "a bold and necessary step towards climate leadership."
"This conference offers a vital opportunity to translate growing support into concrete action," said Berman, "accelerating our shift towards a more sustainable and just energy future for all."