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Replacing Summers: Think Policy, Not Politico
Larry Summers is out, and President Barack Obama now faces a critical decision. He can focus on policy, naming a replacement who wants to ease the economic strains on American households, or he can focus on politics, naming a candidate who appeases the corporate executive class and their backers in the Republican Party. The choice should be obvious. On the economy, good policy is also good politics.
The Obama administration has known for a very long time that it needs to do more about the disintegrating U.S. jobs outlook, but has shied away from taking strong action due to political considerations. Voters are worried about the deficit, the administration is taking heat from cry-baby hedge fund managers for being "anti-business" and besides, Republican obstructionism makes it nearly impossible to pass anything. Better to claim credit for the president's modest economic gains than to wage an uphill battle for economic security.
This pattern of political calculation goes all the way back to the negotiations surrounding Obama's economic stimulus package back in February of 2009. Obama adviser Christina Romer suggested that a package of $1.4 trillion would be needed to significantly bring down unemployment, a figure that ultimately proved to be based on overly optimistic assumptions. But fears of a Republican backlash from a dollar figure ultimately watered down the package to $600 billion -- the administration even included standard annual tax-code fixes in the deal to create the illusion of a larger $787 billion plan.
Summers himself was no angel in this process. He was a chief architect of the too-small-stimulus. But since mid-2009, he has been advocating for further action to create jobs, and by all indications, he has been ignored for political reasons. It is a very strange scenario in which one of the economists most (justifiably) vilified by progressives has actually been one of the more progressive economic voices within a Democratic administration.
But what has this political hedgeing won for Obama? A few days of decent headlines in Politico, followed by years of economic misery. That economic misery has taken a greater toll on the president's popularity than any actual policy he has adopted. The fact that unemployment remains near 10 percent after nearly two years generates a lot of resentment. Voters do not want to empower policymakers who tolerate such economic calamities. Ultimately, the Obama administration's focus on short-term political wins has resulted not only in bad policy, but in political ruin.
So in replacing Summers, Obama needs to pick somebody who gets the policy right. Over time, the right policy will result in the right politics -- bringing down the unemployment rate, fostering economic growth and battling Wall Street excess will strengthen the economy, make households happier, and satisfy voters. The right Summers replacement would be an economist who understands the need for further government spending to create jobs, who recognizes that record-low interest rates make the deficit a secondary consideration, and who understands that Wall Street predation is taking a serious toll on household wealth.
Attempting to appease either the corporate executive class or the Republican establishment would be a fool's errand. The economic platform advocated by House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, last month was a recipe for economic ruin on every front, from jobs to the deficit. Summers is probably the most conservative economist you can find in the Democratic Party, and Boehner called for his head anyway.
But trying to appease Wall Street or corporate CEOs is even crazier. As Salon's Andrew Leonard emphasizes, of all the political calculations Obama could make, trying to appease the corporate executive class is probably the worst. The entire anti-business-Obama meme is, at best, a joke. Wall Street doesn't like the fact that Obama has pushed for modest new restraints on its risk-taking, even thought that risk-taking wrecked both Wall Street banks and the broader economy. Billionaire hedge-fund managers don't like the idea that they might lose their tax privileges and be subject to the same rates everybody else pays. Wall Street's political demands are much like its thirst for bonuses: limitless.
Naming a Summers replacement who focuses on cutting corporate taxes and reducing the deficit by slashing jobs funding will be counterproductive on two fronts. First, it will spur economic misery. Second, that economic misery will generate political unrest. Voters will not respond to a president who advances a policy agenda that actively harms them.
So who should Obama name to take Summers' place? Joseph Stiglitz. His intellectual qualifications cannot be impugned -- he is a Nobel Prize-winner whose academic work is revered on both the left and right. But his policy acumen is equally proven -- he has been chief economist for the World Bank, and Chairman of President Bill Clinton's Council of Economic Advisers.
And his policy record during the Clinton years is absolutely superlative. Stiglitz aggressively fought Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin's efforts to deregulate Wall Street -- efforts that paved the way for the Great Financial Crash of 2008. Stiglitz also fought Rubin by pushing for job-creation rather than deficit reduction. Rubin appeared to win that battle for a while, but once it became clear that the job growth that took place under Rubin's deficit attack was purely the result of an unsustainable bubble, Stiglitz emerged as the victor.
So that's Obama's choice. He can try to appease his political adversaries, and end up losing political points come 2012, or he can appoint somebody who gets the policy right, and reap the political benefits of sound policy come re-election time. Stiglitz is the right man for the job.
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9 Comments so far
Show AllTo that vote of confidence for Stiglitz, whom I heartedly approve, let me add the names of Krugman and Galbraith, as well.
In fact, let's encourage Barry to clean house, ridding himself of Geitner and Goolsbee, and finding a spot for all three!
Anyone notice the timing of Elizabeth Warren's token "appointment" or more acurately "dissapointment". She was conveniently relegated to A less significant position while all along our little BOY President knew Summers was leaving...
American's need this woman in A more powerful position to keep the Wallstreet minions in line...
I would be perfectly happy for her to be our next President. I can not even stomach the thought of Sarah Palin or Newt Gingrich in 2012, but you never know what with the Supreme Court and the electronic screw you voting apparatus lurking about...Few things surprise me these days in American politics..
Here's the problem, i think. Appointing someone like Stiglitz, at this point, would, IMO, simply give Obama undeserved cover because he could then go to his "progressive' base, what there is left of it, and say "See, I did a good thing!", at the same time knowing that, with the expected overturn in Congress, nothing that Stiglitz would recommend would have a snowball's chance of going anywhere, and Obama could say, "Gee, that's nice, Joe, but it'll never fly...."
Stiglitz would be tearing what hair he has left out within a month ....
The time for Stiglitz was 1/'09 ....
I thought that was the Warren appoint was the "hey, look progressives" token, although I'm pretty sure all but the rabid O-bots see through it. I'm now wondering how long Warren will last. I think you're right about Stiglitz and how long his tenure would be. Anybody with a progressive bone in their body doesn't last -- or some dope like Beck says something and Obama does his thing. Obama and the right wingnuts deserve each other.
I'm sure Obama knew when he appointed Warren that Summers would be leaving, just as I'm sure he and little Rahm have it all worked out for his successor. I think they just like to watch progressive pundits twist themselves in knots to see if he'll go progressive or not, like the author of this article.
E Warren would be a superb replacement for the execrable Summers. A major meteor strike is considerably more likely than a Stiglitz nomination. Actually, probably true for Warren as well.
Barry had his chance in 09. Instead he dove headfirst, ass up into the foxhole where he has been curled up in a tight ball ever since.
The problem out here among the "real Americans" is that we have complacently accepted an utterly false equivalence between the vast majority of working people and a tiny, fabulously wealthy minority. I.e., we blithely accept the "meme" that Barry most "balance" the interests of a "few fucking bond traders" as Bill Clintion called them and the entire rest of the country. This is patently ridiculous not to mention, totally undemocratic in principle and practice, but it is what passes for conventional wisdom in the MSM and sadly among a lot of others who should know better and demand more.
Instead we content ourselves with pablum, like "well he's better than Bush, McCain, Palin, etc" or "he's just getting started" or "At least he's smarter than Bush". Let's be honest; Bush's obvious stupidity may have worked in our favor. A smarter reactionary autocrat might have done even more damage.
I've stepped away for awhile. When Barry nominates a real Democrat, let alone a real progressive, not some connected political hack like Summers or Geithner, I'll come back to the party. Meanwhile, I'll enjoy looking at the stars while I still can.
Barry and Larry ARE "real Democrat(s)" - that's what the Dems have become. I think the mistake too many Dem supporters make is assuming that the Dems of today are like "the Dems of old". (Of course i know that many here think the Dems were never any good, but i use this as a standard of comparison - they are much worse now than they ever were.)
"Voters are worried about the deficit,..."
Who told you this? And you believe it?
Elizabeth Warren is a very good choice and so is Paul Craig Roberts.
If Elizabeth runs for President even as an Independent, I feel that she will win Scott Brown style.
The working class and the employing class have nothing in common. There can be no peace so long as hunger and want are found among millions of the working people and the few, who make up the employing class, have all of the good things of life.
Above, is the first paragraph of the preamble to the Industrial Workers of the World Constitution.