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Key Oil Figures Were Distorted by US Pressure, Says Whistleblower
Watchdog's estimates of reserves inflated says top official
The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves.
The allegations raise serious questions about the accuracy of the organisation's latest World Energy Outlook on oil demand and supply to be published tomorrow – which is used by the British and many other governments to help guide their wider energy and climate change policies.
In particular they question the prediction in the last World Economic Outlook, believed to be repeated again this year, that oil production can be raised from its current level of 83m barrels a day to 105m barrels. External critics have frequently argued that this cannot be substantiated by firm evidence and say the world has already passed its peak in oil production.
Now the "peak oil" theory is gaining support at the heart of the global energy establishment. "The IEA in 2005 was predicting oil supplies could rise as high as 120m barrels a day by 2030 although it was forced to reduce this gradually to 116m and then 105m last year," said the IEA source, who was unwilling to be identified for fear of reprisals inside the industry. "The 120m figure always was nonsense but even today's number is much higher than can be justified and the IEA knows this.
"Many inside the organisation believe that maintaining oil supplies at even 90m to 95m barrels a day would be impossible but there are fears that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further. And the Americans fear the end of oil supremacy because it would threaten their power over access to oil resources," he added.
A second senior IEA source, who has now left but was also unwilling to give his name, said a key rule at the organisation was that it was "imperative not to anger the Americans" but the fact was that there was not as much oil in the world as had been admitted. "We have [already] entered the 'peak oil' zone. I think that the situation is really bad," he added.
The IEA acknowledges the importance of its own figures, boasting on its website: "The IEA governments and industry from all across the globe have come to rely on the World Energy Outlook to provide a consistent basis on which they can formulate policies and design business plans."
The British government, among others, always uses the IEA statistics rather than any of its own to argue that there is little threat to long-term oil supplies.
The IEA said tonight that peak oil critics had often wrongly questioned the accuracy of its figures. A spokesman said it was unable to comment ahead of the 2009 report being released tomorrow.
John Hemming, the MP who chairs the all-party parliamentary group on peak oil and gas, said the revelations confirmed his suspicions that the IEA underplayed how quickly the world was running out and this had profound implications for British government energy policy.
He said he had also been contacted by some IEA officials unhappy with its lack of independent scepticism over predictions. "Reliance on IEA reports has been used to justify claims that oil and gas supplies will not peak before 2030. It is clear now that this will not be the case and the IEA figures cannot be relied on," said Hemming.
"This all gives an importance to the Copenhagen [climate change] talks and an urgent need for the UK to move faster towards a more sustainable [lower carbon] economy if it is to avoid severe economic dislocation," he added.
The IEA was established in 1974 after the oil crisis in an attempt to try to safeguard energy supplies to the west. The World Energy Outlook is produced annually under the control of the IEA's chief economist, Fatih Birol, who has defended the projections from earlier outside attack. Peak oil critics have often questioned the IEA figures.
But now IEA sources who have contacted the Guardian say that Birol has increasingly been facing questions about the figures inside the organisation.
Matt Simmons, a respected oil industry expert, has long questioned the decline rates and oil statistics provided by Saudi Arabia on its own fields. He has raised questions about whether peak oil is much closer than many have accepted.
A report by the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) last month said worldwide production of conventionally extracted oil could "peak" and go into terminal decline before 2020 – but that the government was not facing up to the risk. Steve Sorrell, chief author of the report, said forecasts suggesting oil production will not peak before 2030 were "at best optimistic and at worst implausible".
But as far back as 2004 there have been people making similar warnings. Colin Campbell, a former executive with Total of France told a conference: "If the real [oil reserve] figures were to come out there would be panic on the stock markets … in the end that would suit no one."
67 Comments so far
Show AllOh my gosh! They have been lying to us. Who'd a thunk it?
Love the last paragraph; obviously the truth would suit no one.
It is always much better to lie.
Kudos to CD for giving this story such prominent treatment. Peak oil should be getting as much attention as climate change, if not more. It will probably affect us sooner than rising temperatures, yet the public discourse on peak oil is still much less than it needs to be.
If the progressive left is to position itself to take the lead on the peak oil issue, we must be prepared to start some difficult conversations with our fellow citizens about resource limits and the imperatives of lowering consumption and humanely reducing population. When the next energy shock hits, it will NOT be helpful for progressives to gripe about corporate price-gouging and other alleged conspiracies. Rather, the need for EVERYONE to take responsibility in creating a new world must be emphasized.
I agree with everything you are saying, but what I am really concerned about is the right wing in this country. If gas gets between $5 and $10/gallon I can easily see Rush, Glen Beck, and Faux News whipping their listeners into a frenzy. The health care town hall meetings will pale in comparison to this issue. Their lower paid listeners will get hit first and hard by high gas prices. Many of their listeners hold low paying jobs and have to travel long distances to work. It will quickly become unaffordable to even drive to these low paying positions.
These folks were told by their leader Darth Cheney that the American way of life is not negotiable. Unfortunately that couldn't be further from the truth, and they are not going to like that. I don't think they really understand the concept that "Reality always bats last".
I suspect it will be very difficult to reason with these folks, because as a group they appear to lack in the area of critical thinking. I fear things are going to get very ugly very quickly once we pass peak.
You're probably right. I was maybe being a little too naively optimistic in thinking that rational discourse will take center stage in the next energy crunch. Your scenario is probably more realistic. Rough times ahead....
Actually most people tend to respond with compassion and integrity in times of great hardship and disaster. We have all been fed a line of crap that we have to fear others when things get really bad...that's called "elite panic" I believe. If we have all been convinced that chaos will result in an economic meltdown, then we all have every reason to buy guns and shoot to kill- however, when one takes a closer look, we find that in such times the most violence and damage is done by a military or other force in a misguided attempt to "keep order".
So, our best course of action may be to connect NOW with our neighbors and our community to prepare, and also make sure our local police force and state militia know we have it under control. If you work with them to do some "Emergency Management Training" (they'll figure its for a terrorist attack or an earthquake!), they are less likely to send armed officers into your area- making you and your neighbors much safer.
How would you suggest we go about "humanely reducing population?"
I believe that's called Birth Control.
This is probably the most pressing, critical issue to us as humans right now, followed by climate change down the road a bit.
Oil is used for almost everything in our daily lives. Most people don't completely understand its importance in everyones very existence. Once we go past peak, and oil becomes more expensive and difficult to get, our lives will change drastically. There are some indications that we may be bumping along the top of the world oil supply curve right now. If this is true things are going to get pretty ugly pretty quickly.
Our very financial system is based on continuous growth which requires an ever increasing use of energy. Once those oil supplies can no longer be increased, the economic growth stops and our economy crashes.
Oh and globalization, you can kiss that goodbye too. It was based on cheap energy. You can't make plastic pumpkins in China and ship them halfway around the world to the US and make a profit, if gas/diesel gets up to $10 a gallon.
If we had started on the issue back in Carters time during the first energy crisis, MAYBE we could have done something to mitigate the issues posed by declining oil supplies. But now it is probably too late to do anything meaningful about it.
So strap yourselves in and get ready for one very rough ride, and oh yea, no more plastic pumpkins for the kiddies either...
It would be very simple to point those folks at the banksters and speculators (euphemistically called investors) who are principly Republicans and let them loose. But gas and diesel would need to approach $5/gal again for that to happen, which it will at some point.
Overlooked/ignored by most media was the Saudi's decision to drop the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) index as reported by the NYMEX in favor of a different grade traded at a different exchange, which means OPEC will follow suit, and most likely the majority of non-OPEC producers. What this means is the price of imported oil will rise at a much faster pace now that it's no longer held down by the dollar price. Then, we will see oil priced to a basket of currencies index as oil producers abandon the dollar for pricing and purchasing. This by itself will raise the cost of oil bought by a very weak dollar; and as the dollar weakens further as it must, oil purchased by dollars will rise in price regardless of the amount of oil being produced for the global market.
Now add to that the fact that the production of crude oil has already peaked, as shown by the dark blue in the above graph; demand from China, India, and other still healthy economies that has more than taken up the demand destroyed in the US and EU economies; and you have the groundwork for the next round of oil price rises on the global market that the USA can no longer control, aside from bombing the oil producing countries. But the rising cost of oil needn't implode the US economy if the proper policy choices are implemented in a solving-the-crisis manner, although I wouldn't hold my breath or count on action of ANY sort until we are well into a much deeper hole than we are already as it's the Banster's and Corporadoes's GREED that will keep the timely implementation of CHANGE from ocurring. This is why I find it totally appropriate for war to be waged against Goldman Sachs and its ilk.
"But the rising cost of oil needn't implode the US economy if the proper policy choices are implemented in a solving-the-crisis manner,"
Even if all the proper choices were made it will still be a terrible slog.
The reason is our unpayable debt ... there will soon be a cascade of default that will render our financial markets bankrupt.
The debt is a big problem, but not insurmountable IF the proper policies are implemented in a solving-the-crisis-now manner. Such policies go 100% counter to the current economic/political paradigm and represent the ONLY lifeboat in the current situation. Many of us already know that, and most of us expect the government and its owners to continue Business As Usual until the next overwhelming crisis finally drowns them. That is what Ruppert is talking about in his film "Collapse." Hell, the dilemma is spelled out very well in the Hirsch Report, and that's four years-old now.
There's a very good discussion about this item at theoildrum.com
One interesting factoid: The US and China combined import 17+ MBOPD while the top 5 exporting countries are projected to have just 17+ MBOPD available net exports by 2017. On the chart, look at the decline rate for crude oil, the dark blue. That's a lot of production decline to make up for. Peak Oil is all about flow rates, not the total amount available.
Well put ...
And most people do not understand that a complex society will have real trouble devolving into a sustainable form ...
The best outcome and the one most believe will happen is a gradual slowing down. This will probably not be the case as systems crucial to the real economy break down due to severe financial breakdowns that inevitably lead to a spiral of collapse.
I HIGHLY recommend all readers learn about the Transition Initiatives movement, and get started in your own communities.
There are ways being worked out to reduce usage on oil on all fronts. The fight is making them mainstream despite opposition from all sides. To some degree, Peak Oil is just a scare tactic. So what if less oil is extracted? If oil consumption can and is cut down, there's no need to extract a lot. If it's bad for Big Oil business, too bad. Go find some green jobs or raise the demand for green job opportunities in your local area. All this Peak Oil number worrying must stop.
You and I agree on most issues but not this one maxpayne.
The whole world has configured itself to energy from oil. The transition will be difficult at best and could be catastrophic as in nuclear war ...
Just look at our elected leaders ... do they give you confidence in the managing of the transition from oil to other sources?
It's not just a matter of green jobs, it's a matter of people being able to eat. Over 20% of the petroleum used in this country goes toward food production. Unless there are major changes made in our food production and distribution, as oil prices go up so will food prices. And a hungry population is a volatile one. No amount of bike riding and green job working will save you from starving neighbors.
Want to protect yourself? Work to develop a healthy, non-industrial, local food economy in your area. As long as people can eat, we'll have a chance at a peaceful transition to a post-oil economy.
Lies, deception, and violence: the usual staples provided by the U.S. government.
As the posts below state, this is a major issue of our time and one that won't be eliminated by the lies propounded by the U.S. government and the corporate elites it serves.
I am glad this article is being featured prominently on the site.
Tax cuts!!! That will solve everything from oil shortages to global warming. If we would paid no taxes, there would be no problems. Police, military members, teachers, and congressmen would all work for free. We'd create neighborhood groups to build schools, bunker busting bombs and military battleships on our weekends off...
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? (Who will guard the guardians, watch the watchers, etc?)
The last paragraph "But as far back as 2004 there have been people making similar warnings. Colin Campbell, a former executive with Total of France told a conference: "If the real [oil reserve] figures were to come out there would be panic on the stock markets … in the end that would suit no one." is just wrong. It would give the world a gigantic incentive to go to a renewable energy economy on a priority basis.
Mr. Campbell, you are being disingeneous sir; like all the corporate, soldiers you are protecting the wealthy, elite, because you state it is for the public good to lie in order to protect panic in the stock market. The wealthier you are the more you have to fear from panic in the stock market. Maybe if the public were told the truth for once, we could finally diminish our dependence on oil and concentrate our time,money and resources on developing green energy alternatives.
I believe Colin was taking out of context on the last quote. He has been sounding the alarm on the issues and impacts of peak oil for several years through authoring books and articles. He also founded the Association for the Study of Peal Oil.
Continuing the research into the government's lack of honesty:
The banks are reporting record profits because the government is letting them claim all of their worthless mortgages as "performing". Think of circus clowns performing. A number of politically powerful banks are shoveling money in the front end and shoveling campaign donations out the back end, but this perpetual bailout is probably going to end in collapse.
Speaking of collapse, the U.S. dollar is up to its ears in mortgages to foreigners. It's the Republicrat way of financing everything with "no new taxes"! The dollar was once worth 1.2 euros. The dollar will buy 2/3 of a euro today. In ten years it will buy maybe a tenth of a euro. Brazil, Argentina, Zimbabwe, the Wiemar Republic, all sorts of genius countries did this with their currency. In 1929 Britain did this with their pound sterling, but we forgot all that.
The price of gasoline may or may not go up in euros. (OK, it will go up in euros too!) But right now it's going up in dollars because the dollar is gradually being dumped. Why "gradually", I'm not quite sure.
Yes. Guess what? Physics does apply to oil!
One clarification about Macalister's opening paragraph in which he states, "The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit."
This is a common mistake made by journalists who are new to the concept of peak oil. The peak is the peak in production levels. Oil will always be available but at higher and higher prices as the energy cost of finding and lifting the oil becomes increasingly expensive. It means that when an economy has collapsed due partially to a spike in oil prices, as is our case, recovery of a growth economy based on oil consumption forces the price up again to the point of re-collapse of the economy. The amount of oil available decreases each day even in an economic collapse, so the the price spike comes more quickly with each rebound of the economy, until the economy falls into a permanent depression.
What does this mean? It means capitalism, socialism, and communism are over. They are based on economic growth. Economic growth is predicated on cheap energy.
This means the end of this insane spurt of so-called progress that humanity has experienced since the industrial revolution. It means a crash in human population because we now use ten calories of fossil fuel for every calorie of food we produce.
It means localism. It means local solutions. It means that indigenous populations had it right all along.
On the upside, it means we may be able to prevent planet earth's imminent destruction.
Unlimited growth is impossible.
Excellent post, Cherenkov!!! Very clear, starting with the corrective concerning what the concept of peak oil is about, and then the economic and political consequences of the gradual depletion of oil wells.
The end of oil is the end of all economic activity that seeks growth, i.e., of growth driven industrialism. The end of industrialism, in turn, will mark the return to localized forms of life and community, namely local food production and whatever small-scale industry remains viable. It is the end of all forms of giganticism: architectural, urban, industrial, military, etc. It will also be the end of the space program and of highly invasive forms of scientific and technological activity.
I too agree with Cherenkov, but more particularly to the notion that ideology has been taking credit for cheap energy (resources, labor, etc) without justification. I don't think return to a more 'tribal' culture is the necessary result. There is always hope for an elevation in esteem for public interest or commonwealth, waning though it may seem. I just don't understand why the results of Versaille hasn't made it clear to everyone that we really want everyone to prosper, not just that some will construct an advantage for themselves at someone else' expense.
The question is:
How will most of this compression of economic activity take place ... ?
An orderly transition, chaos or war?
It sure looks like we are getting ready for war...
Great post- you are absolutely right. I disliked the opening too because anyone with any sense knows we will never run out of oil- as you said, it will just get increasingly expensive and developed countries will start wars in mid-east countries hoping to secure what's left. As it gets harder to extract, we'll resort to trying to suck it out of oil sands and shale. Finally it will take a barrels worth of energy to get a barrel of oil and at that point- who's going to bother.
DISTORTION ?
that's the PERFECT analogy for and description of the USA.
distortion #1 "greatest civilization on earth"
#2 "america was discovered by columbus and europeans"
#3) "shining city on the hill"
#4) "justice, freedom, fairness and the american way"
#5) "democracy"
#6) "competition on a level playing field"
#7) "respect for the law"
#8) "christian"
#9) "most generous nation"
#10) "free market"
#11) "accountable"
#12) "responsible nation"
#13) "truth"
#14) "the russians, are coming, the russians are coming!!!!!"
#15) "and the chinese and the vietnamese..
#16) "...they are threatening US and our way of life!!!!"
$17) "we come in peace and liberation"
you can put the rest -- there are COUNTLESS other distortions
but don't forget
WMD's ...saddam hussein was ABOUT TO rain "mushroom clouds of destruction"....
welcome to the extermination of dinosaurs and humans as
well.we as a species are too stupid to evolve will go
the way of the do do bird. mr campbell thanks for the
heads up. guess this means 10 dollars a gal soon as
the cat is out of the bag. and yet they are still
blocking any real development of other forms of
energy as well as those spineless pieces of pond
scum we continually re elect to washington. and as
rome is burning they run around making new laws' rules
and policy that means nothing. that is the real
definition of insanity. we could have made oyher plans had the truth be known but exxon mobile shell and all the banks
had to get theirs first as if it was going to matter when
the end comes.lee raymond will die with his millions
little georgie bush will die with his swing set and tonka
toys. if your one of the younger people who read this
it might be a real smart plan to think hard about bringing
any kids into this world as there might not be one for them!
the us government- we can count on them. to lie to us
manipulate us hell do anything they please to us but
tell us the truth! excuse me while i go see a man
about a horse.
Well, duh!!!
Why else do you think 9/11 happened as an excuse to occupy and/or control the primary existing and remaining oil reserves ?
Just check out Project for a New American Century!!
The plan has been in plain sight(since 1998) - even the oil predictions and need to downplay shortages until the US controls what is left.
But I could be wrong !
Right on Miggy!
You could be wrong, but then so would I, so you and I and we are all together. We're trying to dig out from under the successful implementation of PNAC, and will be for some time, hopefully.
This is NOT new information.... at least seven years ago, there was an article in either Popular Science or Science mangazine that stated that we may already have reach "peak oil" production, and that the oil companies used a fudge factor known as "undiscovered reserves" to prop up the numbers for investors. I guess the information is just now getting to the 'progressive' media.
"Undiscovered reserves" is indeed a fudge factor - the main one in the above chart. These entirely speculated-on undiscovered reserves just-so-happen to be exactly enough to offset established field declines. That seems incredibly convienient.
Peak oil will be a good thing. Heavy reliance on a car is largely a lifestyle choice. Move to the city where you can use public transportation and, like me, you won't care about the price of gasoline.
Isn't it ironic that talk of peak oil is always followed by peak profits?
hmmmmm..... you MAY be right Cy, but doesn't 'scarcity' mean that one can jack the price up beyond the extra cost of extraction, thus providing MORE profit for the same amount of product? What I suspect is being said in the board room is "What we have here is an opportunity for prifit".... but I could be wrong.... peace
That's why they always trot out the "Peak Oil" stories at least once a year.
It causes a nice bump up in the price of crude which translates into billions of extra dollars in petro-profits.
It also distracts from engaging the profit motive under serious scrutiny. Remember how the last administration declared the shocking, record-breaking profits of oil companies of recent years to be utterly and completely reasonable? Stop. Take a deep, deep breath. "Can't you smell the bananas in the air?"
This is very significant because, practically, given the entrenchment of USans in their petro-opiate addictions, wider popular support for the transition to local-scale, locally-owned renewable energy has been contingent on estimates of remaining fossil reserves. Note that local-scale, locally-owned renewable energy, if encouraged by the US government over the past several years, would have provided the RIGHT kind of economic stimulus at the RIGHT time, and there would have been no "Great Recession". 130 million voters in Nov 2008 ignored the writing on the far left wall, in the "grand old" USan tradition. Regardless of the "realpolitiks" of USans addictions, distractions, and indoctrinations, we NEED information, and we need informed public demands in the market and policy arenas, if we want a functional society. You ready for that yet?
Isn't that the hope behind the Constitutional protections of the press and speech -- that information, the truth, would out? Somehow we need to figure out how to protect the truth instead of facilitating prevarication and declaring it to be truth. Somehow we need to get these protected activities to fulfill their end of the bargain, without institutionalizing the ilk of Rove, et aux, as the very true harbingers of truth. Even disregarding from the flamethrowers arising on AM radio, I don't see the protected icons coming close holding up their end, and we all suffer.
Now that influential sources finally admit that peak production of oil is near or well past us (by the way, is it just me or do more people have the feeling engine exhausts have been getting dirtier over the last couple of years?) the question remains what was the background for the spike in oil prices in the spring of 2008. Was it just controlled speculation to force the bubble economy into recession, or was there real fear behind the scenes?
I have a feeling that Georgie and Dickie know the answer that
Not just 2008, do you remember how to spell ENRON, or California brown out? When was that, 2000?
Talk of peak oil also psychologically softens up Americans for another Middle East war.
They know most Americans don't want to give up their lifestyle which is underpinned by steady access to oil even if it means other people far away will suffer terribly.
You forgot to add, cygnus, that it provides a basis for ascribing (?) a malicious motive to our military presence in the Middle East to those we're being softened to fight another war against. It pulls both ends of the elastic band.
Cygnus, right on/
Attention, attention all first class passengers ---- Lifeboat drill on A deck!
Now the Afpakran oil war will really kick into high gear for all the oil in the Middle East and Central Asia.
Alan MacDonald
Sanford, Maine
If Rod Serling was alive and making Twilight Zone episodes the perfect ending would show the next dominant species extracting the remains of our long-dead carcasses, now fossil-fuel, for the purpose of powering their society in a peaceful, sharing and harmonious culture.
The camera would zoom into the face of the Earth's new rulers and it'd be pea-brained dinosaurs!
...a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming (oil) shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.
No, they just needed to buy some time so that the rich and powerful could complete their fortresses for the coming Dark Age.
The US distort something? NEVER! And for money no less? Double NEVER!
Really, this shouldn't be a surprised to anyone. The US has done the same thing with climate, food, other natural resources, the economy, war, religion...you name it! If there is one thing that the US is truly a genious at that is lying. In fact I can't make up my mind whether they're better at lying or warmongering.
Lying: a War you conduct against others.
War: a Lie you conduct against yourself.