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"Systemic change is needed 'from the cradle to the grave' of plastic production, use, and disposal," said the lead author, calling for "ambitious action from governments and industry transparency."
A study published Tuesday in the Lancet Planetary Health highlights how humanity's continued reliance on plastics—which are primarily derived from planet-heating fossil fuels—is expected to harm global health over the next couple of decades.
"Plastics life cycles emit a range of gases and pollutants that contribute to the global burden of disease, including greenhouse gases that drive climate change, air pollutants linked to respiratory illnesses, and hazardous chemicals associated with cancers and other noncommunicable diseases," the study explains.
"These emissions occur across all stages of the plastics value chain: from oil and gas extraction, which provides the feedstocks for more than 90% of global plastics; to polymer production and product manufacturing, global transportation, recycling, and formal or informal waste management and mismanagement; to the gradual degradation of plastics in the environment," the publication continues.
Researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and University of Exeter in the United Kingdom, as well as France's University of Toulouse, modeled various scenarios of plastics production, consumption, and disposal from 2016-40.
"The study is the first of its kind to assess the number of healthy years of life lost ('disability-adjusted life years' or 'DALYS'—a measure of harm) due to greenhouse gases, air pollutants, and toxic chemicals emitted across the life cycle of plastics at a global scale," according to LSHTM.
The team estimated that without any changes in global plastics policies and practices, annual health impacts would soar from 2.1 million DALYs in 2016 to 4.5 million DALYs by 2040—with a total of 83 million healthy years of life lost over the full study period. Under a business-as-usual scenario, 40% of the health harms would be tied to rising temperatures, nearly a third to air pollution, and over a quarter to toxic chemicals.
Because of limited data—particularly on the use stage of plastics and the chemicals they contain—lead author Megan Deeney of LSHTM told Agence France-Presse that "this is undoubtedly a vast underestimate of the total human health impacts."
new paper in @thelancet.com estimating the global health burdens of plasticsI think this is one of the first analyses that quantifies the impacts of plastics across its entire lifecycle (from extraction to waste) and highlights the pretty staggering health effects of our current economic system
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— Rob Ralston (@policyrelevant.bsky.social) January 27, 2026 at 6:54 AM
Still, the researchers were able to offer some insight into the adverse health impacts—thanks to their repurposing of modeling methods typically used to evaluate the environmental footprint of individual products and technologies.
These methods "are an increasingly important tool to tackle sustainability questions at a much larger scale," study co-author and Exeter professor Xiaoyu Yan said in a statement. "Our study shows that this approach can help uncover the massive impacts of plastics on human health throughout the life cycle. We now need urgent action to reduce the impacts of plastics on the environment and ultimately human health."
Deeney stressed that such action can't be restricted to consumers. As she put it, "Our research shows that the adverse health impacts of plastics stretch far beyond the point at which we buy a plastic product or put plastic items in a recycling bin."
In the US alone, government data suggests that just 5% of plastic waste is recycled annually, according to a Greenpeace report published last month. The advocacy group also noted that only a fifth of the 8.8 million tons of the most commonly produced types of plastics are even recyclable.
"Often the blame is put on us as individual consumers of plastics to solve the problem, but while we all have an important role to play in reducing the use of plastics, our analysis shows systemic change is needed 'from the cradle to the grave' of plastic production, use, and disposal," Deeney said Tuesday. "Much more ambitious action from governments and industry transparency is needed to curb this growing global plastics public health crisis."
The lead author said that the most effective measure is slashing the production of "unnecessary" plastic. She also pointed out that lack of data doesn't just impact studies like this one: "Industry nondisclosure and inconsistent reporting of plastics' chemical composition is severely limiting the ability of life cycle assessments (LCAs) to inform effective policy to protect humans, ecosystems, and the environment."
The study comes after the latest round of global plastics treaty negotiations stalled in August—which environmentalists called an "abject failure" that should be blamed on the Trump administration, Saudi Arabia, and other major governments opposed to curbing production.
"The inability to reach an agreement in Geneva must be a wake-up call for the world: Ending plastic pollution means confronting fossil fuel interests head-on," Greenpeace USA's Graham Forbes said at the time. "The vast majority of governments want a strong agreement, yet a handful of bad actors were allowed to use process to drive such ambition into the ground."
"These corporations and their partners continue to sell the public a comforting lie to hide the hard truth: that we simply have to stop producing so much plastic," said one campaigner.
A report published Wednesday by Greenpeace exposes the plastics industry as "merchants of myth" still peddling the false promise of recycling as a solution to the global pollution crisis, even as the vast bulk of commonly produced plastics remain unrecyclable.
"After decades of meager investments accompanied by misleading claims and a very well-funded industry public relations campaign aimed at persuading people that recycling can make plastic use sustainable, plastic recycling remains a failed enterprise that is economically and technically unviable and environmentally unjustifiable," the report begins.
"The latest US government data indicates that just 5% of US plastic waste is recycled annually, down from a high of 9.5% in 2014," the publication continues. "Meanwhile, the amount of single-use plastics produced every year continues to grow, driving the generation of ever greater amounts of plastic waste and pollution."
Among the report's findings:
"Recycling is a toxic lie pushed by the plastics industry that is now being propped up by a pro-plastic narrative emanating from the White House," Greenpeace USA oceans campaign director John Hocevar said in a statement. "These corporations and their partners continue to sell the public a comforting lie to hide the hard truth: that we simply have to stop producing so much plastic."
"Instead of investing in real solutions, they’ve poured billions into public relations campaigns that keep us hooked on single-use plastic while our communities, oceans, and bodies pay the price," he added.
Greenpeace is among the many climate and environmental groups supporting a global plastics treaty, an accord that remains elusive after six rounds of talks due to opposition from the United States, Saudi Arabia, and other nations that produce the petroleum products from which almost all plastics are made.
Honed from decades of funding and promoting dubious research aimed at casting doubts about the climate crisis caused by its products, the petrochemical industry has sent a small army of lobbyists to influence global treaty negotiations.
In addition to environmental and climate harms, plastics—whose chemicals often leach into the food and water people eat and drink—are linked to a wide range of health risks, including infertility, developmental issues, metabolic disorders, and certain cancers.
Plastics also break down into tiny particles found almost everywhere on Earth—including in human bodies—called microplastics, which cause ailments such as inflammation, immune dysfunction, and possibly cardiovascular disease and gut biome imbalance.
A study published earlier this year in the British medical journal The Lancet estimated that plastics are responsible for more than $1.5 trillion in health-related economic losses worldwide annually—impacts that disproportionately affect low-income and at-risk populations.
As Jo Banner, executive director of the Descendants Project—a Louisiana advocacy group dedicated to fighting environmental racism in frontline communities—said in response to the new Greenpeace report, "It’s the same story everywhere: poor, Black, Brown, and Indigenous communities turned into sacrifice zones so oil companies and big brands can keep making money."
"They call it development—but it’s exploitation, plain and simple," Banner added. "There’s nothing acceptable about poisoning our air, water, and food to sell more throwaway plastic. Our communities are not sacrifice zones, and we are not disposable people.”
Writing for Time this week, Judith Enck, a former regional administrator at the US Environmental Protection Agency and current president of the environmental justice group Beyond Plastics, said that "throwing your plastic bottles in the recycling bin may make you feel good about yourself, or ease your guilt about your climate impact. But recycling plastic will not address the plastic pollution crisis—and it is time we stop pretending as such."
"So what can we do?" Enck continued. "First, companies need to stop producing so much plastic and shift to reusable and refillable systems. If reducing packaging or using reusable packaging is not possible, companies should at least shift to paper, cardboard, glass, or metal."
"Companies are not going to do this on their own, which is why policymakers—the officials we elected to protect us—need to require them to do so," she added.
Although lawmakers in the 119th US Congress have introduced a handful of bills aimed at tackling plastic pollution, such proposals are all but sure to fail given Republican control of both the House of Representatives and Senate and the Trump administration's pro-petroleum policies.
The latest round of negations show just how difficult it is to enforce humanitarian and ecological objectives which go against the interests of the oil industry and oil-producing countries.
A legally binding Global Plastics Treaty was first proposed in March 2022 when 175 nations signed a resolution at the United Nations Environment Assembly committing to draft the treaty. Negotiations have, however, been stalled by disagreements for years.
This treaty was seen as our greatest chance to address the plastics crisis on a global scale across its entire lifecycle, from production to disposal. In August 2025, at the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC)-5.2, 184 countries negotiated the details of the agreement in Geneva, resulting in an outcome that many have labelled a failure.
Plastic was once hailed as a great invention, but is now increasingly seen as a considerable risk to human health, the environment, and the economy. In a 2016 report, the World Economic Forum found that, at current rates, it is predicted that without a solution, "Oceans will contain more plastic than fish by 2050."
Plastics production has increased twentyfold since 1964, and now 360 million metric tons of plastic waste is created every single year. Just 9% of this is recycled effectively. One-third will end up in fragile ecosystems such as the world's oceans. Plastic production is set to triple by 2060.
There are about 16,000 different plastic chemicals, the effects of which are still largely unexplored; this includes per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and other forever chemicals. Toxic chemicals now pose one of the greatest threats to humanity, alongside the climate crisis, species extinction, and nuclear weapons.
As with the fossil fuels industry, big tobacco, and the arms trade, profits are privatized, but the burden is carried socially.
There are already five marine regions which are completely contaminated with plastic and can no longer support life. The most infamous is the Great Pacific Garbage Patch in the North Pacific, which is twice the size of Texas.
Plastic is now considered a health risk with an estimated cost of up to $1.5 trillion per year. Plastic is inhaled from the air and consumed in food and drinks. Tiny microplastic particles have been found in human blood, brains, intestines, and placentas, which can cause cancer, heart attacks, and strokes. Once they have entered the environment, microplastics cannot ever be removed.
The vast majority of synthetic plastics are derived from crude oil, natural gas, or coal. The transition away from fossil fuels in the energy sector has led many fossil fuel companies to shift their attention to the plastics industry, building new manufacturing sites and ramping up production. Plastics play a significant role in the climate crisis and are responsible for 5% of global greenhouse gas emissions—twice as much as global air traffic.
Mismanagement of plastic waste results in the vast majority of it being discarded, burned, or relocated to poorer regions of the world, where it is released back into the environment and ultimately finds its way into our oceans.

There have so far been six rounds of talks organized by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), none of which have resulted in a consensus. The previous session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC-5.1) in Busan, South Korea was unable to overcome opposition to an international plastics treaty and adjourned until the next year.
The main points of contention were the inclusion of mandatory caps on plastic production and the use of toxic chemicals in processing.
Oil and gas-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran, Egypt, Kuwait, and the USA have been stalling progress, as they oppose production targets and prefer to focus on waste management. The UNEP conferences have been swarmed by fossil fuel lobbyists who have been very much part of the pressure groups blocking a strong deal.
The INC-5.2 took place in Geneva from 5-15 August 2025. Representatives from 184 countries and numerous national and international nongovernmental organisations (NGOs) took part under the auspices of the United Nations. It was the largest round of international negotiations since the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015 and the UN Biodiversity Summits.

The talks formally closed on August 15 without a deal—a historic opportunity missed. Two days before the decision was made, chairman Luis Vayas Valdivieso presented a proposal that was deemed unsatisfactory by the conference delegates. The draft practically dropped all measures to reduce plastic production and referred mainly to the handling of plastic waste that has already entered the environment.
The conference was extended by one day, which left just hours to find a compromise. A revised draft was submitted by the chair at the last hour. It was also deemed not fit for discussion by high-ambition countries as it omitted the key concepts of reducing plastic production, regulating chemicals of concern, and creating a fund to tackle plastic injustice in the Global South.
Forming a coalition of the willing, which excludes states blocking the deal, will enable countries that want a strong plastics treaty to fulfil their mandate without obstacles and move forward together.
The main obstacle to securing a strong deal was the UN's requirement for consensus in decision-making. For years, delegations have been urging a reform to a democratic voting system, allowing drafts to be approved with a two-thirds majority. Most governments support a strong treaty. The consensus process bows to low-ambition countries, who are backed by powerful corporations intent on blocking real solutions.
Colombia's delegate, Sebastián Rodríguez, blasted the talks, stating that "the negotiations were consistently blocked by a small number of states who simply don't want an agreement." Even French President Emmanuel Macron stepped in to call for a successful conclusion in the interest of future generations.
There is currently no confirmed date or venue for the next round of negotiations.
Co-headed by Norway and Rwanda, a group of like-minded countries have formed The High Ambition Coalition made up of many European countries, including the UK, Germany, and France, many small island nations, Japan, many Latin American countries, and even the UAE.
Their common goal is to end plastic pollution by 2040 and implement a strong plastics treaty which is both legally binding and effectively monitored. In preparation for the INC-5.2, the coalition drafted the Nice Wake-up Call in June 2025.
Their three primary objectives are:
Civil society organizations such as the Scientists' Coalition for an Effective Plastic Treaty, Business Coalition for a Plastics Treaty, Break Free From Plastic, Greenpeace, WWF, IPEN, the Center for International Environmental Law, GAIA, Environmental Justice Foundation, and groups of Indigenous peoples are calling for:
Plastic credits and carbon offset schemes are not a viable solution. They merely enable uninhibited plastic production under the guise of offsetting emissions elsewhere. The incineration of plastic must also be minimized as a method of plastic disposal, as it adds even further carbon to our atmosphere.

Just seven countries are responsible for the production of two-thirds of the four most widely used types of plastic worldwide. China leads by a wide margin, producing as much plastic as the next six largest producers. The USA follows in second place, producing more than the countries in the EU combined. The countries with the highest plastic consumption per capita are the USA, closely followed by South Korea and Australia.
The plastics crisis does not respect geographical boundaries; the whole of humanity must consume and produce less plastic. The technology and materials for replacing plastic with more ecologically compatible materials are already a reality. The plastics industry needs to be refocused and jobs transformed.
As with the fossil fuels industry, big tobacco, and the arms trade, profits are privatized, but the burden is carried socially. This strategy is now an institutionalised playbook. Profits must not take precedence over environmental and health concerns. Lobbyists must be excluded from negotiations.
This conference shows just how difficult it is to enforce humanitarian and ecological objectives which go against the interests of the oil industry and oil-producing countries. The failed deal is a metaphor for global conflicting interests, a lack of ability to compromise, and the shortsighted behavior of profiting states and companies.
An eye-opening meta study from 2024 revealed the following:
We reviewed economic and environmental studies on global plastic pollution and we estimate the global cost of actions toward zero plastic pollution in all countries by 2040 to be US$ 18.3-158.4 trillion (cost of a 47% reduction of plastic production included). If no actions are undertaken, we estimate the cost of damages caused by plastic pollution from 2016 to 2040 to be US$ 13.7–281.8 trillion. These ranges suggest it is possible that the costs of inaction are significantly higher than those of action.
How long does humanity want to go on like this?
The High Ambition Coalition should continue to organize, expand its networking, and initiate the next round of negotiations with a well-prepared draft. Forming a coalition of the willing, which excludes states blocking the deal, will enable countries that want a strong plastics treaty to fulfil their mandate without obstacles and move forward together.
Individually, we can reduce our purchases and consumption of plastic and improve our management of plastic waste. Individuals can seek out alternative products such as those made from natural materials or bioplastics, which are biodegradable.
Environmental education, which informs politicians and citizens about the extent and consequences of plastic waste, is essential. It promotes ecological commitment, civil society engagement, and informed voting behavior.
Environmental protection can be enforced by legal action. The climate ruling by the International Court of Justice on July 23, 2025, initiated by Vanuatu, officially states that the human right to a clean, healthy, and sustainable environment is protected by law. Legal action can and should also be taken to reduce plastic production and pollution.
The online platform Better World Info has extensively researched and documented the Plastics Crisis and the Global Plastics Treaty. It provides additional resources and proposed solutions.