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With Greece's Final Austerity Deal Reached, the 'Gruesome Bleeding Process' Continues
This morning Greece and its creditors finalized a $170bn bailout package for the country with further austerity measures already bringing calls for strikes.
Greece's bailout package means wage and pension cuts, as well as increased unemployment. (Milos Bicanski/Getty Images) While Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos has said the bailout means a "nightmare scenario" has been averted, for many Greeks the further deep cuts mean the nightmare is unfolding.
The Guardian reports that the bailout package means wage and pension cuts, as well as increased unemployment:
Greeks will have to suffer further wage cuts than the 15% planned for the next three years in order to restore their country's competitiveness, senior EU officials have admitted.
The size of the IMF's contribution to the €130bn bailout – finally agreed on Tuesday after 14 hours of negotiations – has also yet to be decided, while the European commission will only present proposals for "an enhanced and permanent presence" of debt inspectors in Athens later this week.
Repeatedly conceding that their forecasts were subject to high risks, the officials said the Greek economy would contract by 4.5% this year after a fall of 7% last year and would stagnate in 2013 before growth resumed in 2014.
Unemployment, now running at more than 18%, is expected to remain above this level this year and next, be just below 17% in 2014 and remain above 15% in 2015. But wages will have to be depressed even further to reorientate the Greek economy towards exports.
The government of Lucas Papademos, or its elected successor, will also have to find savings equivalent to 5% of GDP by the end of 2014, with officials talking of stepping up the fight against tax evasion.
Greeks have already suffered a 30% cut in wages and can look forward to steep cuts in the minimum wage as well as pensions as the price for securing the latest €130bn bailout which, with €34.4bn rolled over from the original €109bn rescue package, gives €164.4bn available over the next three years.
Economist Mark Weisbrot says that the bailout package will likely make the economic crisis worse:
“The European authorities seem more intent on punishing Greece than helping the economy recover,” said Weisbrot. “For two years now they have been pushing the Greek economy into recession, and there’s still no light at the end of the tunnel.”
A leaked document reported last night by Reuters and the Financial Times contains a “sustainability analysis” prepared for the European Finance Ministers. It portrays a grim scenario with explosive debt and Greece needing “about €245bn in bail-out aid, far more than the €170bn under the ‘baseline’ projections eurozone ministers were using.”
“Given the underestimation of Greek losses so far, and the recessionary impact of budget tightening, mass layoffs, a 20 percent reduction of the minimum wage, and other austerity measures – I think the pessimistic scenario outlined in the leaked document is a very plausible scenario,” said Weisbrot.
“The bottom line is that you can’t shrink your way out of a recession – you have to grow your way out. What they are doing to Greece really makes no economic sense. At this point, it looks like the economy would do better if Greece were to exit from the euro, as opposed to enduring indefinite recession and stagnation, extremely high and persistent unemployment, and increasing poverty. The European authorities are certainly pushing Greece toward the exit and default option.”
Sky News adds:
The deal includes "an enhanced and permanent" surveillance presence in Athens by the so-called Troika to observe implementation of promised reforms.
Dean Baker: "The pain being imposed is not a route to economic health; rather, it is a gruesome bleeding process that will only leave the patient worse off."
Economist Dean Baker writes that the push towards austerity led by the troika -- the IMF, EU and European Central Bank -- will only make the situation worse:
There is no economic reasoning behind the troika’s positions. For practical purposes, Greece and the other debt-burdened countries are dealing with crazy people. The pain being imposed is not a route to economic health; rather, it is a gruesome bleeding process that will only leave the patient worse off. The economic doctors at the troika are clueless when it comes to understanding a modern economy.
Reuters reports that many see further recession on the way, and still the possibility of Greece leaving the euro zone:
Swedish Finance Minister Anders Borg said: "What's been done is a meaningful step forward. Of course, the Greeks remain stuck in their tragedy; this is a new act in a long drama.
"I don't think we should consider that they are cleared of any problems, but I do think we've reduced the Greek problem to just a Greek problem. It is no longer a threat to the recovery in all of Europe, and it is another step forward."
Jennifer McKeown, senior European economist at Capital Economics, said: "The austerity measures it will have to implement and increased monitoring by the troika amidst public outrage will make things harder and drive it deeper into recession. There is a risk of a euro zone exit later this year."
A return to economic growth in Greece could take as much as a decade, a prospect that brought thousands onto the streets of Athens to protest on Sunday. The cuts will deepen a recession already in its fifth year, hurting government revenues.
"We sowed the wind, now we reap the whirlwind," said Vassilis Korkidis, head of the Greek Commerce Confederation. "The new bailout is selling us time and hope at a very high price, while it doggedly continues to impose harsh austerity measures that keep us in a long and deep recession."
The BBC reports that strikes to protest the austerity package have been called:
Trade unions have called for new street protests on Wednesday and the head of the opposition Communist party has vowed to oppose new cuts.
"We insist on daily struggle to thwart the measures and this struggle cannot be a defensive one," said Aleka Papariga.
Comments
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35 Comments so far
Show AllAmazing that someone would say this publicly. Yes, this has turned into Greece's problem. Originally it was the banks' problem, that is what this was all about in the end. The banks' losses have been transferred over to the public and paid for by the people, Greece has been looted, sold off, privatized, and now what was really a problem of a capitalist system in which finance is far too dominant is Greece's problem. When the crisis spreads, and it will, it will become Spain's problem, then Portugal', etc. What was financial capitals problem is now the people's problem, it is now their governments' problem. Welcome to 21st century, financialized capitalism. The economy used to work for the people, it was there to meet people's needs. Now people are there to make the highly concentrated owners of the capitalist system happy and to serve THEIR needs. Replace the system or accept debt peonage for at least a generation. The capitalists in the West haven't created a system to benefit enough people to sustain itself, so now it is about hallowing out democracy and brute force.
Thanks for the memories and for a wrecked planet, corporate capitalism!
Excellent post. Thank you.
Thomas Gilbert-
and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a communist.
Then they came for the trade unionists,
and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a trade unionist.
Then they came for the Jews,
and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a Jew.
Then they came for me
and there was no one left to speak out for me.
Martin Niemöller
Now that they have dragged Greece off to the camps, will someone speak out? Spain maybe?
You got it with that one, old goat!!
I won't suggest what they might want to do with the current ones, but it's incredible that even with the examples of Iceland and Argentina, those pillocks are still choosing to exploit the people to benefit the bankers.
i concur, excellent analysis - especially your last sentence which also applies to america. our democratic system is being eviscerated and our poor are increasingly using jail as a means of subsistence survival. meanwhile the beneficiaries of the system (even on the lowest rung) will close their eyes and abandon their comrades to preserve their own status and lifestyles. obama or santorum or revolution ??? reminds me of a poster i once saw that said -- hope.
...peace...
For myself, I see the governments as colluding with the finance system. I know the Greek government was supposedly sold a bill of goods with regards to loans and investments, but I think that they went along with what they knew was a sketchy roadmap. The people at the top of the government who agreed to these things will not be the ones hurt the most.
He means that only the middle class and poor have to suffer and the ultra rich don't have to worry about a thing. I seem to remember Greece has some pretty rich people like Jackie Kennedy's husband, Ari Onassis. He had a daughter. I doubt they lost a dime.
Greeks do not need to "restore their competitiveness" in a destructive, misdirected and rigged game. The game is perpetual "ekonomic growath" that destabilizes economies, destroys the biosphere, confuses/enslaves the people, and enriches elites. Greeks need to instead take ownership/control over their own production,
Naturally, for global communities to take ownership/control over local production, there will be a lot of redundancy, "reinventing the wheel", rather than allowing the world to benefit from the "most competitive", "superior" producers.
But that's just fine. Germany's competitiveness benefits Germans but Germany produces in excess, feeding wasteful, destructive konsumption of expensive carz, etc, in Merka and elsewhere. Germans need to take longer vacations, and produce fewer carz and other "quality" junk.
And if the Greeks have to work longer hours to produce the same quality as Germans, or as automation, then so be it. We don't need any large volume of production. We need fewer things made, and we need to keep things in service much longer, to reduce the overall consumption of energy/materials.
Lower the volume of production, localizing ownership/control of production, sharing the knowledge of production freely, keeping the products in service much longer, and properly compensating people for their productivity are all components of the people's industrial agenda. We know exactly what we are doing. We know our agenda benefits the people far better. Anyone who wants to debate these ideas know the far left is open for such discussion. Everyone knows, which is why elites ignore us. But the people are seeing the light for themselves, now, and this is why the elites are so frantic, acting like idiots. Crashing into each other.
...peace...
It comes down to "whose ox is being gored." Who will "eat" the losses: the bankers, or the insurers? Neither wanted to, so the next fall-back was the German taxpayer - who were adamant that they were not going to start paying for the inefficient economies of the "outer ring" States.
That leaves only new loans from the EU central bankers, and the price for that is the repayment of those fresh loans before anything else. But the Greeks have no surplus earnings. Result: the life-blood gets sucked out of the Greek economy to pay the EU loans.
Realistically, the solution is for Greece to de-couple from the Euro, go back to the drachma, default, and drastically devalue the drachma. It is a small economy, and the EU can easily take the hit. What really worries the money-men is not Greece (where the bail-out is less that what the US spent to bail out only one firm, AIG) but Italy, where disaster is lurking and if it goes under, it will do serious damage. When Italy de-couples and goes back to the Lira, the defaults will cascade back upon the northern taxpayers - who will freak out. Fireworks are coming.
This has led to the rather hoary commentary: "Banks capitalize the profits and socialize the losses."
To understand how this works, appreciate that Goldman Sachs is a "skim outfit;" their stated function is to "eat off the trail of golden crumbs." So the Greeks get cash in exchange for a Bond at a high interest rate. The Bond is re-sold (packaged or not) to third-party investors, for a lower interest rate, in a pool against which certificates are issued. The difference allows for part of the investors' principal to be skimmed off [in the case of the US mortgage market, this skim could be over 50% of invested capital]. To satisfy the investors that they will be paid, Goldman arranges for a CDS. With a CDS in place, somebody like Moody's can place a "AAA" rating on garbage BBB- stuff.
And this is why "the banks" cannot accept a haircut on principal. If they voluntarily accept a write-down, then there is no "incident of default," hence the CDS does not kick in. If the borrowers default, then the banks and the investors are made whole by the CDS. If the CDS issuer cannot pay, then the losses are "socialized" by a government infusion.
And therein lies the core problem of modern capitalism, Goldman style: they have developed a business model that shovels off the losses onto the "other people," and keep the winnings, no matter what. Now you know why Goldman can pay $44 Billion in bonuses, averaging $1.5 million per employee, when the entire planet is going broke.