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Why Obama's Iran Policy Will Fail: Stuck in Bush Mode in a Changed World
While the tone of the Obama administration is different from that of its predecessor, and some of its foreign policies diverge from those of George W. Bush, at their core both administrations subscribe to the same doctrine: Whatever the White House perceives as a threat -- whether it be Iran, North Korea, or the proliferation of long-range missiles -- must be viewed as such by Moscow and Beijing.
In addition, by the evidence available, Barack Obama has not drawn the right conclusion from his predecessor's failed Iran policy. A paradigm of sticks-and-carrots simply is not going to work in the case of the Islamic Republic. Here, a lesson is readily available, if only the Obama White House were willing to consider Iran's recent history. It is unrealistic to expect that a regime which fought Saddam Hussein's Iraq (then backed by the United States) to a standstill in a bloody eight-year war in the 1980s, unaided by any foreign power, and has for 30 years withstood the consequences of U.S.-imposed economic sanctions will be alarmed by Washington's fresh threats of "crippling sanctions."
Most important, the Obama administration is ignoring the altered international order that has emerged in the wake of the global financial crisis triggered by Wall Street's excesses. While its stimulus package, funded by taxpayers and foreign borrowing, has arrested the decline in the nation's gross domestic product, Washington has done little to pull the world economy out of the doldrums. That task -- performed by the U.S. in recent recessions -- has fallen willy-nilly to China. History repeatedly shows that such economic clout sooner or later translates into diplomatic power.
Backed by more than $2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, the state-owned Chinese oil corporations have been locking up hydrocarbon resources as far away as Brazil. Not surprisingly, Iran, with the second largest oil as well as gas reserves in the world, looms large in the strategic plans of Beijing. The Chinese want to import Iran's petroleum and natural gas through pipelines across Central Asia, thus circumventing sea routes vulnerable to U.S. naval interdiction. As this is an integral part of China's energy security policy, little wonder that Chinese oil companies have committed an estimated $120 billion dollars -- so far -- to Iran's energy industry.
During a recent meeting with Iran's first vice president, Muhammad Reza Rahimi, in Beijing, Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao stressed the importance of cooperation between the two countries when it comes to hydrocarbons and trade (at $29 billion a year, and rising), as well as "greater coordination in international affairs." Little wonder, then, that China has already moved to neutralize any sanctions that the United States -- backed by Britain, France and Germany -- might impose on Iran without United Nations authorization.
Foremost among these would be a ban on the export of gasoline to Iran, whose oil refining capacity falls significantly short of domestic demand. Chinese oil corporations have already started shipping gasoline to Iran to fill the gap caused by a stoppage of supplies from British and Indian companies anticipating Washington's possible move. Between June and August 2009, China signed $8 billion worth of contracts with Iran to help expand two existing Iranian oil refineries to produce more gasoline domestically and to help develop the gigantic South Pars natural gas field. Iran's national oil corporation has also invited its Chinese counterparts to participate in a $42.8 billion project to construct seven oil refineries and a 1,000 mile trans-Iran pipeline that will facilitate pumping petroleum to China.
Tehran and Moscow
When it comes to Russia, Tehran and Moscow have a long history of close relations, going back to Tsarist times. During that period and the subsequent Soviet era, the two states shared the inland Caspian Sea. Now, as two of the five littoral states of the Caspian, Iran and Russia still share a common fluvial border.
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, relations between the Islamic Republic and Russia warmed. Defying pressures from both the Clinton and Bush administrations, Russia's state-owned nuclear power company continued building a civilian nuclear power plant near the Iranian port city of Bushehr. It is scheduled to begin generating electricity next year.
As for nuclear threats, the Kremlin's perspective varies from Washington's. It is far more concerned with the actual threat posed by some of Pakistan's estimated 75 nuclear weapons falling into militant Islamist hands than with the theoretical one from Tehran. Significantly, it was during his recent trip to Beijing to conclude ambitious hydrocarbon agreements with China that Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said, "If we speak about some kind of sanctions [on Iran] now, before we take concrete steps, we will fail to create favorable conditions for negotiations. That is why we consider such talk premature."
The negotiations that Putin mentioned are now ongoing between Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (the U.S., Britain, China, France, and Russia) as well as Germany. According to Western sources, the agenda of the talks is initially to center on a "freeze for freeze" agreement. Iran would suspend its nuclear enrichment program in exchange for the U.N. Security Council not strengthening its present nominal economic sanctions. If these reports are accurate, then the chances of a major breakthrough may be slim indeed.
At the heart of this issue lies Iran's potential ability to enrich uranium to a level usable as fuel for a nuclear weapon. This, in turn, is linked to the way Iran's leaders view national security. As a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran is, in fact, entitled to enrich uranium. The key point is the degree of enrichment: 5% enriched uranium for use as fuel in an electricity generating plant (called low enriched uranium, LEU); 20% enriched for use as feedstock for producing medical isotopes (categorized as medium enriched uranium, MEU); and 90%-plus for bomb-grade fuel (known as high enriched uranium, HEU).
So far, what Iran has produced at its Natanz nuclear plant is LEU. At the Iran-Six Powers meeting in Geneva on October 1st, Iran agreed in principle to send three-quarters of its present stock of 1,600 kilograms (3,500 pounds) of LEU to Russia to be enriched into MEU and shipped back to its existing Tehran Research Reactor to produce medical isotopes. If this agreement is fleshed out and finalized by all the parties under the aegis of the International Atomic Energy Agency, then the proportion of Iran's LEU with a potential of being turned into HEU would diminish dramatically.
When it comes to the nuclear conundrum, what distinguishes China and Russia from the U.S. is that they have conferred unconditional diplomatic recognition and acceptance on the Islamic Republic of Iran. So their commercial and diplomatic links with Tehran are thriving. Indeed, a sub-structure of pipelines and economic alliances between hydrocarbon-rich Russia, Iran, and energy-hungry China is now being forged. In other words, the foundation is being laid for the emergence of a Russia-Iran-China diplomatic triad in the not-too-distant future, while Washington remains stuck in an old groove of imposing "punishing" sanctions against Tehran for its nuclear program.
Tehran and Washington
There is, of course, a deep and painful legacy of animosity and ill-feeling between the 30-year-old Islamic Republic of Iran and the U.S. Iran was an early victim of Washington's subversive activities when the six-year-old CIA overthrew the democratically elected government of Prime Minister Muhammad Mussadiq in 1953. That scar on Iran's body politic has not healed yet. Half a century later, the Iranians watched the Bush administration invade neighboring Iraq and overthrow its president, Saddam Hussein, on trumped-up charges involving his supposed program to produce weapons of mass destruction.
Iran's leaders know that during his second term in office -- as Seymour Hersh revealed in the New Yorker -- Bush authorized a clandestine CIA program with a budget of $400 million to destabilize the Iranian regime. They are also aware that the CIA has focused on stoking disaffection among Sunni ethnic minorities in Shiite-ruled Iran. These include ethnic Arabs in the oil-rich province of Khuzistan adjoining Iraq, and ethnic Baluchis in Sistan-Baluchistan Province abutting the Pakistani province of Baluchistan.
Little wonder that Tehran pointed an accusing finger at the U.S. for the recent assassination of six commanders of its Revolutionary Guard Corps in Sistan-Baluchistan by two suicide bombers belonging to Jundallah (the Army of Allah), an extremist Sunni organization. As yet, there is no sign, overt or covert, that President Obama has canceled or repudiated his predecessor's program to destabilize the Iranian regime.
Insecure regimes seek security in nuclear arms. History shows that joining the nuclear club has, in fact, proven an effective strategy for survival. Israel and North Korea provide striking examples of this.
Unsure of Western military assistance in a conventional war with Arab nations, and of its ability to maintain its traditional armed superiority over its Arab adversaries, Israel's leaders embarked on a nuclear weapons program in the mid-1950s. They succeeded in their project a decade later. Since then Israel has acquired an arsenal of 80 to 200 nuclear weapons.
In the North Korean case, once the country had tested its first atomic bomb in October 2006, the Bush administration softened its stance towards it. In the bargaining that followed, North Korea got its name removed from the State Department's list of nations that support international terrorism. In the on-again-off-again bilateral negotiations that followed, the Pyongyang regime as an official nuclear state has been seeking a guarantee against attack or subversion by the United States.
Without saying so publicly, Iran's leaders want a similar guarantee from the U.S. Conversely, unless Washington ends its clandestine program to destabilize the Iranian state, and caps it with an offer of diplomatic acceptance and normal relations, there is no prospect of Tehran abandoning its right to enrich uranium. On the other hand, the continuation of a policy of destabilization, coupled with ongoing threats of "crippling" sanctions and military strikes (whether by the Pentagon or Israel), can only drive the Iranians toward a nuclear breakout capability.
During George W. Bush's eight-year presidency, the U.S. position in the world underwent a sea change. From the Clinton administration, Bush had inherited a legacy of 92 months of continuous economic prosperity, a budget in surplus, and the transformation of the U.N. Security Council into a handmaiden of the State Department. What he passed on to Barack Obama was the Great Recession in a world where America's popularity had hit rock bottom and its economic strength was visibly ebbing. All this paved the way for the economic and political rise of China, as well as the strengthening of Russia as an energy giant capable of extending its influence in Europe and challenging American dominance in the Middle East.
In this new environment expecting the leaders of Iran, backed by China and Russia, to do the bidding of Washington means placing a bet on the inconceivable.
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Show All"Backed by more than $2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, the state-owned Chinese oil corporations have been locking up hydrocarbon resources as far away as Brazil. Not surprisingly, Iran, with the second largest oil as well as gas reserves in the world, looms large in the strategic plans of Beijing. The Chinese want to import Iran's petroleum and natural gas through pipelines across Central Asia, thus circumventing sea routes vulnerable to U.S. naval interdiction. As this is an integral part of China's energy security policy, little wonder that Chinese oil companies have committed an estimated $120 billion dollars -- so far -- to Iran's energy industry."
That's the oil China will be using to manufacture "cheap" trash that the China "Free" trade scam pushed for. China wouldn't be going after all that oil if only that "free" trade scam were cancelled which I don't expect Obama to try doing.
I'm guessing that Obama will copy Raygun's idea of covert invasions but this time against Iran rather than Dubya's explicit invasion of Iraq for oil. At this point, the neocons want to hide their failures as best as possible. Obama was their "perfect choice" !
apart from investing its holdings into commodities such as OIL .i am CERTAIN that China's longterm strategy is to CAREFULLY use the OIL for its PRESENT domestic needs - but ONLY to BUY TIME for BUILDING its ENTIRE infrastructure to a supermodern economy of high energy efficiency and low pollution.
you can already see this happening...and MEANWHILE locking up THAT same OIL forwhatever uses it has for the coming 3 decades more.
but MY long opinion has alwasy been that CHINA's "locking up oil" is really to ensure that its TRANSITION to become the world's dominant and pre-eminent and most advanced economy - BASED ON CORRECTING THE ERRORS of the past such as with bad energy and industry structures - is ensured.
already - china's 2 largest economic trade partners ARE japan and South Korea.
South Korea is TODAY the world's NUMBER ONE "large construction" country - with the most advanced , environmentally conscious and energy efficient technologies, sciences and research and development ....
and THAT is a MAJOR trading and cooperation partnerships China has with South Korea.
we are seeing HERE the beginnings of a world order of industrialized or more modernized nations that are CLEARLY PAVING THE WAY for LEAVING the US MODEL of PROFLIGATE and unthinking USE of resources.
it is indeed BETTER that it IS china that is ":locking up oil"
THE USA has been proven to be UNTRUSTWORTHY with it.
in fact - despite China's "locking up of oil" (which in teh future can be used for better uses in technology that are not as polluting as burning them in cars a la Arnold Schwarzenegger's california) - China is actually already mandated to use ONLY energyefficient cars ..japan is already responding to that requirement.
China is ALSO already in FULL SCALE ALL OUT transformation mode of eventually removing its oil burning plants...to turn them into SOLAR and WIND POWER..and ALREADY - just by teh ATTEMPT alone - has become the world's Premiere, producers of SOLAR and WIN technology.
true - china has had LOTS of pollution in trying to "catch up" - but people ought to remember - CHINA is the world's OLDEST continuous civilization. it did NOT survive that way out of IGNORANCE .
Thanks teddy for the details. There's a lot about China I am afraid I know little about.
I have heard about the massive sludge buildup all over rural China enough to put farmers out of business. That country is in dire need of going green more than anything else. I wouldn't be surprised to see that country going green and doing swell while at it.
of coourse china has TONS of problems they need to fix. which country doesn't?
but what china is doing is EONS ahead of the USA : and that is - whatever its problems it is finding ways to fix them , bit by bit, if for NOTHING more than for the knowledge and SENSITIVITY that to earn the respect of the world they HAVE TO.
the CONTRAST with the USA is as wide as the Grand Canyon.
the USA does NOT 'fix' its problems - it WORSENS them based on the idea of "exceptionalism" and MYTHICAL greatness.
as IF its problems where someone ELSE's FAULT, like "china and pollution"
"or if ONLY iran changed regime"
of "if ONLY asians did NOT save so much"
or "if ONLY south america did not go LEFT and instead SWALLOWED our capitalism whole"......
THAT"S the difference.
China and other countries try to dig themselves OUT of a hole.
the USA INSIDE a black hole , SQUIRMS even DEEPER INTO it
thinking there's "light at the end of the tunnel.:"
what an IDIOTIC thing!
South Korea - is slated to begin operations for creating History's largest single project of an ENTIRE city from scratch with a futuristic , highly advanced system of energy-efficiency and environmentally cooperative function..to house at least 80,000 people. for STARTERS - using its already most advanced experience as the world's premiere "large construction builder".
what do people THINK is a part of China's accelerated trade and partnership with South Korea entails?
do ppeople think China - with its BILLIONS of people is going to be SO STUPID as to ALLOW itself to be destroyed from within due to its own pollutions and lagging work and economic conditions -0 which mind you - is a RESULT of the isolation IMPOSED by the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA when
NO ONE in the world DARED to oppose the USA FASCISM?.
as a demonstration of why THAT is so :
South Korea - this december is opening in DUBAI the world's BIGGEST and TALLEST building -- 168 stories high, half a mile up.
with extremely advanced environmentally efficient designs INCLUDING internal "farm" technology , solar power, renewal and recycling technology..etc. etc. etc.
just watch:
by the TIME THE USA wakes up -- it is FAR BEHIND EVEN the chinese living in HAMLETS in far-flung provincial regions!
as of thsi standing IT IS THE USA that has NOTHING to offer the world:
NOT its "constitution" which it doesn't even HONOR
NOT its "respect for laws" which it crushes under its Fascistic Heel
NOT its claims of "justice or fairness and truth"
NOT even its "economic" model which is DISASTROUS!
all it has to offer is THREATS, INTIMIDATION BOMBS and WAR and MAYHEM wherever it pokes its fingers in the world.
it would be better if the USA just left the rest of the world ALONE to do the business of picking up after the MESS created BY THE UNITED STATES.
Excellent, excellent article Mr. Hiro.
Cleary enunciates the whole picture, Iran vis a vis USA.
The Bomber needs to read this article, can someone more adept than I Email this to the White House?
Article is worth more than all the boardrooms full of advisers
Glenn: I could not agree more!
I suspect Obama and his folks know that his Iran policy will fail too. The only question is whether the failure of that policy will result in war. Or, in other words: Is war part of the Iran policy?
Obama, the Pentagon, Congress, US corporations , media are ALL operating on nothing more complicated than PURE PRIDE - MISPLACED PRIDE over a long-gone USA "right of lawful Conquest"...
they can't swallow their pride so they end up flailing away, creating more bombs to try and wage more wars to try to intimdiate countries to behave the way washington and the US chamber of commerce wants them to behave to "return" the world to the days of US Omnipotence
even if THAT was ALWAYS a DELUSION that just needed TIME - TIME: the Lord of Everything - to dash on the shoals of REALITY. \
so Obama and his Pentagon and their Magnificent Army and the corporatiosn behind them and their cheerleaders Congress and US media and the Idiotic majority of the US population
go on and on and on in their willful ignorance, denial and idiocy about the PRIDE of "american greatness".........
even if in the process they are just getting gobsmacked , tripped in their own webs of deceit, and falling face straight down into offal of their own producing...
and stand up PRETENDING they're still the "knight in shining armour" even if they NEVER WERE.
China is working to corner markets of rare earths and other exotic resources, as well.
---
America recently went ape-shit when the man held responsible for blowing up an airliner in 1988 was released from prison.
The other man who blew up an airliner in 1988 was decorated for his service, as were all the members of the USS Vincennes. 250+ Iranian children, women and men died that day, killed by the US Navy and America doesn't care.
Iranians and the rest of the world remember this even if America doesn't.
America's one-eyed vision and fingers-in-the-ears deafness will continue to cause America to stumble and bumble about the world, wreaking havoc, losing friends and gaining new enemies.
just so you know. purely on economics and technology :
CHINA now , presently, has for at least a year mandated that all cars sold in china, domestic or foreign be fitted with Hybrid electric, or fuel-efficient capability. their state sponsors domestic car manufacturers of course, but gives incentives the more they develop electric, or other alternative , fuel efficient cars..and instead SEVERELY TAX imported cars as "luxuries" if they do not provide high efficient fuel use should a domestic buyer insist on getting such foreign cars.
RESULT - even japan with its most advanced car technology is gearing MUCH of its future car marketing to satisfy China's requirements.
ALSO - as of TODAY - ONE out of TEN chinese households - 1 out of 10 - urban and remote rural areas, is already fitted with SOLAR POWER..and china means to be the premiere solar and wind power energy producer.
RESULT at present:
With China suffering from the effects of the recession that was concocted in the USA Wall Street Finance and its own recalcitrant Corporations - because of China's over-dependence on EXPORT - china refocused much of its sovereign credit and wealth and savings to INTERNAL DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENT.
meaning? they found out - they have SUFFICIENT DOMESTIC MARKET to compensate for the loss of "export earnings".
and of course their Intra Regional trade with Southeast Asia has increased...china being now the biggest trade partner of.........japan..and soon south korea..and of course the ASEAN nations...
in other words:
WHO NEEDS THE USA consumer anyway? they can't even pay for the cheap goods properly!
as of TODAY - China's YUAN has entered limited but effective trade exchagne with
Vietnam, Hongkong, Taiwan, Philippines, South Korea (a big chunk of their trade in fact, already) , Laos, Myanmar..India to follow, and others..
NOT YET as a "store of value" but enough to be "transactional"
oh , and there's IRAN of course - where china definitely ISN"T going to toe the USA line of attacking or even destabilizing or even isolating iran. no no no. not when CHINA's ENERGY needs and economic ties have GROWN by LEAPS and BOUNDS to IRAN! and so has Russia's.
THE USA is wanting to "reshape the middle east" in the image of "the west" USA LED?
it is STARING into a face that has THIS visage:
"CHINA.RUSSIA.IRAN and ALL of the rest of ASIA"........
the USA should just learn to accept it NOW, RIGHT NOW.
it's EMPIRE and days of dictating to the world are OVER. KAPUT, FINITO.
NO ONE WANTS TO LISTEN ANYMORE and they AREN"T FRIGHTENED at all OF the USA. ONLY the MESS the USA can still create...but they aren't about to PERMIT THAT without SEVERE consequences to the USA that would spell its ULTIMATE COLLAPSE.
maybe OBAMA , his generals, their pentagon, the Congress, the us Media, the Corporations want to TRY and REALLY FIND OUT?
all they have to do is KEEP DOING what they THINK they can still keep doing and
see where THAT gets them.....
Do you work for the Chinese Ministry of Propaganda?
You didn't provide any links to corroborate what you've said.
"ONE out of TEN chinese households - 1 out of 10 - urban and remote rural areas, is already fitted with SOLAR POWER..and china means to be the premiere solar and wind power energy producer."
Prove it! What does that mean? If I buy a solar cell to charge a LED light does that mean I'm fitted with SOLAR POWER?
I read a lot about massive numbers of new coal fired plants coming on line in China. What about the hundreds if not thousands of coal miners that die every year in China? How do Tibetans feel? Maybe China will come rescue me so I can work for $0.35 /hr! I don't think Southeast Asia is too pleased with Chinese plans to dam or is that damn the Mekong river. That could jeopardize the lives of millions! What percentage of Chinese electricity is generated by alternative energy? The Danes are producing 20% of their's from the wind. Europe and Japan have heavily taxed vehicles with over 2.0L displacements for many many years with no thought about China. What about pollution? What is healthcare like in China? Are they building a vast network of efficient public transportation? Oh yeah China recently bought Hummer! Wooo hooo China!
Here's some pictures of your "beloved" China.
http://www.chinahush.com/2009/10/21/amazing-pictures-pollution-in-china/
First of all, China's population is bigger. Second, the reason coal plants are up is coal is needed to make a lot of those "cheap" products to be ship, courtesy of "free" trade. Despite all that, China is way ahead of the USA in getting alternative energy sources off the ground. Ditto for health care and public transportation. They're not as good as Europe or Japan but they are way ahead of the US as far as I can tell.
no - i don't work for the China Ministry of Propaganda.
DO YOU work for the NSA and CIA CHECKING OUT PEOPLE if they say anything "unamerican?" -- such as stating that HISTORY demonstrates the USA is the BIGGEST longest standing Terrorist State in the Entire History of the Planet?.
as for the info -- - you can find these and MANY MORE - in Asiatimesonline.com
of course you'll have to do the actual READING yourself ...i won't be yours or anyone's librarian...
that information is only ONE of many from DIFFERENT articles on what the chinese are doing with their economy. i've actually posted these here in some threads. do you follow that closely enough, since you think I am "propagandizing" for china.
after all - IRAN foreign policy of the USA - even as far back as TOPPLING the Democratically elected leadership in 1953 - is related to China's relationship with Iran, isn't it?
and THE USA which has NOTHING to OFFER but BOMBING - somehow likes to play that game of meddling in the affairs of other regions.......
can you believe that?
incidentally -- did you KNOW that this present AFGHAN/PAKISTAN war BY the USA
has NOW threatened to SPREAD and escalate INTO central asia, such as Turmenistan and kazakhstan?
yup -- that's THE USA's DOING.
and I will let you FIND where the articles are....
"is related to China's relationship with Iran, isn't it? "
I don't know. I'm more inclined to think that the US backed coup had little to do with the Chinese. Controlling oil reserves and destroying any Iranian ties to the USSR were probably the big motivations behind Mossadeq's (sp?) overthrow.
"NOW threatened to SPREAD and escalate INTO central asia, such as Turmenistan and kazakhstan?"
No, I didn't. That's horrible news. It doesn't surprise me though.
as for pictures of bad things in china....
\why don't YOU produce pictures the PENTAGON IS HIDING
about the hundreds of thousands of DEAD , MAIMED, DESTROYED IRAQis and Afghanis and pakistanis and
goodness knows WHERE ELSE the UNITED STATES has wages it overt and covert wars all over the globe.......
yeah -- why don't YOU PRODUCE THEM ?
and as you are about that business - why NOT produce MORE pictures of the devasted LIVES of AMERICANS IN homeland dear Fatherland USA
homeless, Jobless, slave labored, no health care, bankrupt...and living on the DOLE from FOREIGN creditors?!!
yah -- show US - those very nice pictures the US PENTAGON and Congress and YOUR wonderful "free press" DOESN"T want to see the light the day.............
and it's ALL Stamped - globally -
MADE IN THE USA!
"yeah -- why don't YOU PRODUCE THEM ?"
I don't have any links right now. It's rare that I bookmark the pictures of Iraqis, Afghans, Lebanese, Palestinian, or Pakistani people have been killed by amerikan imperialism. I'll start doing that. I'm interested in links to alternative energy in China. I don't read or hear much about it.
When I posted those pictures from China I was thinking it will be just as easy to find ones from amerika. The indigenous population living near uranium mines would be more grotesque than the pictures from China.
"and as you are about that business - why NOT produce MORE pictures of the devasted LIVES of AMERICANS IN homeland dear Fatherland USA
homeless, Jobless, slave labored, no health care, bankrupt...and living on the DOLE from FOREIGN creditors?!!
yah -- show US - those very nice pictures the US PENTAGON and Congress and YOUR wonderful "free press" DOESN"T want to see the light the day............."
Good one! I guess I deserved that. I know we suck, maybe better than you do. I'd guess there is a larger percentage of americans that are vile than most other nationalities but I could be wrong. And when I said "your 'beloved' China" I was being an asshole. I apologize.
Here's a good example of how lousy the US has been. Chalmers Johnson says that in 1980 if you summed all the DOD budgets between 1945-1980 the total would be more than the value of all the infrastructure in the US in 1980. That's sick. We could have built everything we had twice if not for imperialism. The Chinese only spend 1/6 what the US does on the military. So maybe there only 1/6 as bad as the US. Or how about this? The US spends $2000 per capita for the military whereas the Chinese $50 per capita so maybe China is only 1/40 as bad?
I can only wonder how bad other people might be. I hate to see others do the garbage americans do. We're not a very good example unlike how some of our politicians and population would like to portray us.
well - you can be SURE ASIA is NON too pleased with what the USA ALREADY has DONE TO ASIA for generations:
BOMBING the Indochinese subcontinent for one, ESCALATING war thousands of miles away where it doesn't BELONG...
Using the IMF and World Bank to give "prescriptions" that devastated their economies (and CHINA BY THE WAY survived it INTACT for REFUSING to swallow the Washington POISON)...
propping up dictatorships and militarising the region thinking it "belongs to america".......
yeah right!
CHINA - the asians will take care of THAT themselves!
they don't NEED the USA to meddle in their affairs ! PERIOD!
but then maybe THAT"S why you are so upset?
that the USA is being told, bit by bit , "YOU are NOT wanted here"....or "of you want to be here ... BEHAVE"!
Love your answers, teddy, dude. Having lived and worked in China for almost 2 years I can attest to the amazing changes that country is presently undergoing. In fact I just returned from a trip there (to the city I'm most familar with) and have to say that I was stunned by the changes that had occured within a year eg, a 700 acre lake in the near midst of the city when there was none a year ago. What makes China exciting is that the people and government are aware of their problems and ARE doing something about them (as you've implied).
The trouble with FZ is that s/he's probably never been to China and (yes, yes, I know) s/he will probably never go coz little things like facts might get in the way of his/her prejudices...political and otherwise...
"may you live in interesting times"
being from the Philippines myself - I KNOW about chinese and at least something of the culture. the philippines was once considered AMONG asians "the pearl of the orient" BECAUSE of its central importance as a "free trade" post - mainly dominated BY the "middle kingdom" of china. that is why there are many filipinos of SOME chinese blood and acculturization.
even the TWO women presidents of the Philippines are of partly chinese blood (cojuanco for the late Cory Aquino - and the current one whom I do not like particularly, comes from a province with plenty of chinese culturization, cebu)
so - what I am trying to say is - LONG before the westerners and americand came - full of their own sense of "superior civilization" - china's influence was already THE engine that ran throughout asia , rivalled only by India.
my point also is that - chinese, nor the other asians, just like americans are NOT stupid so as not to be AWARE of problems.
anyone that sees his own backyard being trashed INSTINCTIVELY sees there is a problem.
it is stupid for the chinese - with their 6 thousand year old continuous civilization - which was formed close to its present geographic boundaries, give or take - to not be aware and KNOW that something needs to be done.
it is NO different from their having evolved the well-known "acupuncture" way of medicine...to PREVENT illness by maintaing a good 'balance' of yin and yang in the body.
so - while they have been Ravaged indeed by pollution in their HASTE to catch up with the rest of the world IF THEY ARE EVEN to survive intact as an economy - who would blame THEM if they had to function after "waking up" from nearly 2 centuries of isolation, LARGELY DUE to WESTERN imperialism -
if they end up polluting so much and not getting back on track more equitably in their economic re-awakening -- I emphasize "RE-AWAKENING" ?
but that consequence they CLEARLY are serious to do something about. as PART of their recognition that their ENTIRE future destiny as a RIGHTFUL great nation among nations in the world
DEPENDS on doing things "properly".
as I say:
they did not survive 6 eons as a single country - and did not become the one great country that successfully REPELLED western imperialists - out of Stupidity.
examples:
when they realized that they were encroaching upon the bamboo forests on which teh panda depends entirely - the chinese wholeheartedly embraced the Mandated laws to PRESERVE forests and extended it towards other natural habitats. today - they are among the most involved in preservation of natural habitats, EVEN as they struggle to modernize...that's a national character that is AWARE of the necessity for BALANCE.
when they realized to their horror how an entire region can be devastated by the earthquakes - they put together community action with government action to REBUILD BETTER towns and buildings.
what is the USA doing for KATRINA NEW ORLEANS?
why -- they're UPPING the RENT! and turning it into a "whites only " or "Yuppies only" enclave!
are the chinese all goody,goody? of course NOT.
they have their national interests just like others - but they are WILLING To see the OTHER side's VIEWS and concerns because they are away that they can NOT be "the middle kingdom" UNLESS their neighbors' concerns are taken into serious consideration. ....UNLIKE the USA whose only demonstrated "view" was ITS OWN in relation to the others.
that is why China -despite border disputes with vietnam CAN do business with vietnam and actually TRANSFER satellite technology TO vietnam to allow vietnam to improve ITS telecommunications capabilities . is vietnam a lackey or STUPID to allow itself to be subjugated by China the giant? of course NOT. but that alone tells you that in contrast to what the USA has done - china's influence - culturally and economically has been FAR, FAR more beneficial to its partners than otherwise !
"never been to China and (yes, yes, I know) s/he will probably never go coz little things like facts might get in the way of his/her prejudices...political and otherwise..."
Nope, I'm too poor. I'd like to visit a lot of places. The only prejudice that would prevent me would be that it might not be safe. And a lot of the reason for that thought is because of the possible animosity towards me because I'm from the USA. And I'm sure there are millions if not billions that have legitimate reasons to despise amerikans. I'm one of the lesser of the evils but I guess I'm still evil though.
Alright, I'm back teddy. I agree with your reply except that's not why I'm upset. I don't think the Chinese leadership is that good.
I expected you wouldn't care much for my earlier reply and might misunderstand some of my sentiment. I agree with most of what you say but when I read some of your comments it seems like all you are really saying is "amerika=bad and anybody else=good." That kind of attitude or presentation is one of the horrible things about the US. You're a lot better than that.
What got me disturbed was some of the things in your earlier posts, like this,
"i am CERTAIN that China's longterm strategy is to CAREFULLY use the OIL for its PRESENT domestic needs"
I don't know how you can be certain. They're probably using most of their oil to produce cheap items for export or infrastructure to produce such crap and may try to continue for who knows how long. I'm certainly not certain of my opinion. I'd guess that most of the benefits of China's industrialization go to a small oligarchy instead of the majority of its citizens(or its present domestic needs). I can only wonder how good or bad the Chinese, Russian, or Iranian leadership, aristocracy, or whatever we should call it is. I wouldn't be surprised if most of what they do is for their own self-interests and detrimental to the majority of their populations. I'm suspicious that Amadenijad (sp?), Putin, and Jintoa (sp?) are much better than the scumbags that rule the US and any better than some western European leaders. If I had my pick I probably want Malaysia's president from the late 90s that was smart enough to rebuff the IMF and World Bank's austerity measures. They suffered less from economic problems than the other Asian nations that we along with them.
"ONLY to BUY TIME for BUILDING its ENTIRE infrastructure to a supermodern economy of high energy efficiency and low pollution. "
I'm very skeptical. Is the Chinese oligarchy really much better than any other. They're selling out portions of their population to cater to western oligarchs. There's nothing admirable about that. Could we even post messages to this site if we were average Chinese citizens?
"NO ONE WANTS TO LISTEN ANYMORE and they AREN"T FRIGHTENED at all OF the USA. ONLY the MESS the USA can still create"
Copy that! The world's greatest, most powerful military machine has not yet "pacified" Baghdad and has to pay Afghan warlords to protect US forces at their forward operating bases. And, it only costs us a trillion dollars a year. This I find annoying.
Mr. Hiro: I think you should change your last name to Hero. This is one of the most cogent,sagacious and perspicacious articles I have read in a long time. This article cuts through all the BS and crap we are told by the punic, whores and puerile, pundits in the MSM that have sold out the American people for the filthy lucre of the corporate state. Thanks for your sapience Mr. Hiro. Paul
It's so logical, yet our Israel-loving Congress can't see past their anti-Muslim racist noses. The US Congress is mired in corruption, CIA plots, and stupidity. It's living in the 1950s and has altogether too much hormonal aggression running through its system to ever negotiate peace with any nation. The Congress has to have its wings clipped--that means cutting off its lobby money and making it truly a servant of the people, not a slave to corporate money. What's the going rate for servants these days?
i wuld rephrase the "servant" lingo and call it what it is--corporate whores!
Refreshing.
Long ago, we used to have diversity of opinions expressed in the MSM. Today we're continuously bombarded from all corners with claptrap.
Thanks CD and Dilip.
the USA is "influential" In ONLY ONE PLACE --
INSIDE THE USA...over its doldrumed people...
to the rest of the world - the USA is something to be merely Tolerated like a Crazy Uncle Sam in the attic coz he still has some "unspent" goodies that he Stole long ago..and THEY want it BACK!!!
they just let him have his moments of screaming and wild flailing away - up there in the attic - until he goes to sleep from exhaustion and maybe -- just never wakes up again -0- to BOTHER everyone else like he always has!
all one can say is:
a PARENT right now that has kids in america - wants her kids to have a better "chance" in the global community? for many of US adults it is probably too late ...
but for children -- if they want to be able to "open doors' for thesemlves?
LEARN M A N D A R I N.
even the south americans KNOW that and are doing SO!
what was it that the high officials of brazil said recently?
"WITH CHINA we can SIT DOWN and TALK about things PROPERLY...there is NO ONE In washington that we can do the same things with...since our trades with china began...we have improved...it is UNLIKE the years under the Americans".
While it is good to see a piece that sees the multi-polar and multi-power world order that exists now, what is missing (though it is not the task of Dilip Hiro to explicate this) is an attempt to offer a realistic alternative. A good start would be for the USA to play to its' strengths, primarily which is cultural products like movies and music (they love Snoop Dogg in Iran, for example). In the meantime, a retrenchment that includes real investment in education and infrastructure would be a good starting point. In any respects, what has to go is the Bush error thinking that has the delusion that the USA is far and away the sole superpower on Earth: thanks to the Crawford, Texas village idiot, that fallacy is gone for the immediate future.
Excellent, insightful, and authentic. But the mechanics of politics in US is such that it is easier for Congress to vote for a war with Iran and not peace. As far as resolving conflicts, war is the default position in US congress/senate. Voting against a war is seen as abnormal. Just look at the Iraq II war. Senators like Biden and I believe many other congressmen and women voted in favor of Iraq II war based on domestic politics like electability and not because Iraq was a threat to US (they ought to have known that Iraq was not a threat). As a matter of fact, I recall Biden making a comment to the effect that those who vote against the war will not do well in presidential elections. The present secretary of state, I believe, voted for war on that basis.
When push comes to shove, current Congress would still vote for Iran war with a comfortable majority despite the humongous deficits and debts that have been incurred fighting current wars. It is the easier option.
The opening paragraph about "Tehran and Washington" fails to balance the "deep and painful legacy of animosity and ill-feeling between the 30-year-old Islamic Republic of Iran and the U.S" with a remark about the collective memory of the "Hostage Crisis" in the U.S. That memory should not preclude the necessary acknowledgment of U.S. citizens of their government's egregious imperial inclinations in Iran. But to recognize the reverberating anti-Iran sentiment from 1979, and how it's been amplified by post-9/11 anti-Islamism, is to get a grip of understanding on why it's so easy for the new Executive administration to strong-arm the diplomacy. They have the public behind them! "We the People", the tyrannical majority, still see the East as a threat, Cold War to War on Terror. I challenge the citizens of the U.S.A. to shake their prejudices. Tell Obama that fairness does not equal weakness. I thank Dilip Hiro for the perspective of justice.
"The Simpsons" ain't what it used to be, but give them credit: among the possessions disclosed during a visit to the Simpsons' attic was Homer's "Ayatolla Assahola" T-shirt.
One can only presume that he saved it for a reason.
· Yr Obd't Servant
THE REAL LONGSTANDING AMERICAN policy and national Philosophy behind all the claims of "progress"...whether it's about the genocide against native indians, the Imperial project and its HUMAN FAILURES...or its disastrous Economic Policies is really this:
"NOTHING SUCCEEDS LIKE FAILURE".
it should be inscribed ON the American Flag. and ABOVE the US constitution. and on EVERY medal given to american soldiers, and on every boardroom of the American Corporatocracy.
NOTHING but NOTHING succeeds LIKE FAILURE....
and every american "christian" should start the meals and the day and every church meeeting and service with these intonations. BEFORE "the lord's prayer".
or add :
"Our Father who art in heaven. hallowed be thy name, thy kingdom (USA) come, ...blahblahblah....
FOR nothing Succeeds like Failure, AMEN".
A fact which the Obama administration cannot ignore: the Pentagon brass will continue to oppose any military strike in/against Iran as long as our wars/occupations in Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan continue.
This article better than any CIA document could produce on this subject.
What to do, nothing more than remove the threat posed in the area by US and allies and include with it a hard fight to remove nuclear weapons from human society.
The Challenge for US is to keep its word - no double-talk, no weapon sales, prohibit drug coming into US from the area, Hold up Geneva Convention and Human rights. This list would be much smaller if not for the military industrial complex in the Western Hemisphere. In essence , walking this talk, hell or high water.
toophat for you!
The Obama administration's Iran policy is exactly like their Foreign Policy. They really don't have one.
Let me say again, they confuse Diplomacy with Foreign Policy. The problem is simple as that.
The US under Bush and for many years before was a terrorist country supporting the violent destabilization of other regimes. The proof of same is mentioned in this article. The whole idea of the CIA and its work throughout the world over the last sixty years led to the destabilization of many countries such as Iran in 1953 and the subsequent creation of millions of refugees. To pretend now to be fighting a war against terrorism is blatant hypocrisy on the part of the US. One should definitely not throw stones when living in a glass house.
Within the past couple of weeks there have been (at least) three noteworthy acts of Washingtonian stupity and arrogance toward Iran.
1. The House of Representatives (the more "progressive" of the two bodies in Congress) passed, with a vote of 414 to 6 the "Iran Sanctions Enabling Act of 2009" - HB1327- which, based on the premise that Iran is a nuclear threat and with not one mention of human rights, is to force state and local governments to begin penalizing any business which is working in Iranian oil, natural gas, or nuclear energy development or transport. This bill will probably be used for other purposes in the future - that is, if the U.S. can figure out that the future is not the past.
THREE democrats voted against this stupidity - Kucinich, McDermott, and Hinchey.
2. At about the same time, our brilliant Secretary of State Clinton was in Russia trying to get them to impose sanctions.
You can't make this stuff up! Brilliant!!!
3. Our great oratorialist Obama had to use his public response to his Nobel PEACE prize announcement as a platform to criticize Iran. Sort of like saying -Oh yeah, this is nice, but Iran is pissing me off and after all the wonderful things we've done for them!
At a time when we could be working with all of these nations to create a better world through diplomacy and mutually beneficial economic projects, especially in regard to clean renewable energy (ever wonder if it's sunny in Iran), we, the Unbelievably Stupid and Arrogant (USA) must taunt (But, we do it in such a lovely bi-partisan way!).
But only by making primitive, idiotic, barbaric, ham-fisted, chest-pounding, lizard-brained affirmations that the Amerikan Empire Stands Strong and Hangs Tough can the Amerikan Empire hope to intimidate, dominate, and control the primitive, idiotic, barbaric, ham-fisted, chest-pounding, lizard-brained masses that above all else value Standing Strong and Hanging Tough!
Dontcha SEE?
· Yr Obd't Servant
OH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
So it's like high school?
Pretty much.
· Yr Obd't Servant
I'm a little late to the posting but it is interesting to find out who has sponsored these proposed sanctions against Iran. Senators Lieberman and Kyl along with Congressman Pence and Ackerman created House Resolution 362 and Senate Resolution 580 which would have required a blockade of Iranian ports to keep the Iranians from getting any imports of gasoline. Many members of Congress signed on as co-sponsors until someone reminded them that blockading foreign ports was an act of war under international law. So the same dopes came up with another attempt in the spring of 2009,"Iran Diplomatic Enhancement Act", which had the same language as before. That one also failed, so "Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act" was created in the summer of 2009 and was re-written so we wouldn't wind up in a war with Iran. It was all on behalf of the Israelis! For all the wild speculation and wishful thinking on behalf of the Israelis, the Russians lost approx $12 billion that they had to write off when we attacked Iraq. They and the Chinese are not going to allow the US or the Israelis to attack Iran and they will assist them in many ways. If Obama is smart, he will stop parroting all the AIPAC propaganda about the nukes being built by the Iranians, cancel the secret $400 million Bush plan to destabilize the Iranian government, pull our Special Ops troops out of Iran,very loudly tell Israel to stop saber rattling against Iran, remind Israel that Bush turned down their request for assistance in attacking Iran in the summer of 2008 and we also share that feeling, ask the Iranians to allow the US to open a Interests Section in Tehran, stop most of the ridiculous sanctions against Iran, stop dumping fake currency in Iran. The Iranians would be more willing to talk with us and have a sense of trust. Sad to say, Fat Chance that this administration will do these things!!
This is hilarious. China and Russia are raping Iran for every cent of hard cash they carry. And we the US are driving up their prices. Sure, Iran and China can make any deal they want. Revocable at any time. While hammering Iran for hard cash for the promise of effectual deals. Deals which shall be ineffectual. This is more like tossing a rotten sandwich over an overpass and remarking how many friends we could have won based on all the hobos fighting over it.
Hiro must be living in lala land. None of the US based reputable and highly paid news analysts on TV and print are saying anything remotely resembling what Hiro is trying to say here.
by-and-large, "the economy" is a factor that bears influence only on the little people. here's the tell-all line in this article: "..unless Washington ends its clandestine program to destabilize the Iranian state.." absurdities and abominations aside, the only logic that matters, from the perspective of the rarefied coterie setting our foreign policy, is a good money deal; count on our bosses to eschew with a clear conscience any moral, social and environmental concerns that might imperil their accumulation of wealth, i.e., expect more turmoil, misery and wanton deaths. so "Fail" applies only to the public. the corporate clique will profit, it's just business
"Ever get the feeling you've been cheated?"
Obama shows again that he was full of it and my hope has run dry. The bully pulpit hasn't worked in the past, so why do we keep using the same approach? I read a study recently about rats that were exposed to severe stress and how it causes them to repeat the same behavior, even though it's repeatedly unsuccessful.
Could this be the stressful behavior from an empire in decline?
A decent discussion on the subject:
http://www.mindwafers.com/3/post/2009/10/james-vs-pilf-the-persian-problem.html
The DELUSIONAL American Foreign Policy which wastes more and more money for NOTHING!!!!
The DELUSIONAL NOTION that America can take out every country with military force yet still wants to be respected is PSYCHOTIC!!!!!
That America KEEPS THREATENING Iran which goes against the Nuremberg Laws is also CRIMINAL!!!!!
Obama, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden have threatened Iran over and over again just like Bush and Cheney. This makes all of them guilty of the Nazi Laws from Nuremberg. As such, it makes all of them war criminals as well. One does not have to fire a shot to be a war criminal. Merely threatening and using coercion against other nations are war crimes. American Foreign Policy is steeped into war crime activity....
Learn what Blowback is all about. America supports terrorists and terrorist organizations not only opposed to the present regime in Iran, but who in turn, attack it with force such as killing the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. What goes around comes around, yet, Americans have a reasoning deficit in this regard.
not that 9/11 has not already demonstrated it :
but one of these days - the more american keeps laying its webs of deceit and traps to destabilize regions in order to "reshape" them according to america's dictates -- america will TRIP UP and get trapped in its own traps..
if anything that's what's happening in the middle east, central asia and elsewhere.
some of them more recent - others the result of decades of american deceit and webs of entrapment of regions to make them "subject" to the american games of power and exploitation.
it has laid down SO MANY nets and webs that it is now becoming like a "hunter" that has laid down one too many traps and one day -- STEPS on one he has made himself ...before the wolves he was trying to catch out of his greed for their skin circle him and eat him up alive.
just look at Hillary Clinton...she goes to Pakistan to whip the Pakistanis into "shape" to do america's prefered bidding
and instead gets LITERALLY "encircled" by pakistanis to QUESTION HER - rather than the other way around.
she went there to QUESTION pakistanis about how they are going about the business of being america's "enforcer" in central asia or near asia - and criticise them to whip them into "action" the american way -
and instead she got a MOUTHFUL of questions she couldn't even answer properly ...and ends up GOING HOME - the USA SECRETARY OF STATE - tasked with telling the world how to behave
goes home to pakistani catcalls and basically being told :
"YANKEE GO HOME".
what this was and all other policies and actions and "diplomacies" of the USA in such a region, as an example, is that the USA really has been laying its USUAL webs of entrapment to render other countries, or regions, SUBJECT to its will...whether it is by fomenting wars and insurrections or instabilities to spread to other countries and then ENTRAP other countries that america sees as "rivals" such as Russia or China ...or iran ...
and then try to coerce them to do america's bidding to "arrange" the world according to the american dictates ...at THEIR expense always ...
and yet Clinton and her ilk go to pakistan trying to "check out" how their traps are working and to whip their "allies" into shape --
and instead stepped into their own traps.
Clinton represents the american worldview that rivals such as china or russia or iran or venezuela or brazil, need to be "contained" FROM ever challenging the USA in "reording the world" - much to THEIR detriment in THEIR own regions far away from america -
and thinking it can entrap THEM _ as it did with the Soviet Union in afghanistan decades ago (and now tries with china or russia or iran)
it can continue to get away with staying "safe" from its own webs of deceit and entrapments.
all one can say is -- as clinton went home being practically booted out by the pakistanis - who just happen to have a growing relationship with china and are also USING the USA as a leverage - the same way the USA uses pakistan as leverage...
clinton - and along with her, US foreign policy of "dominance" just ends up tripping on its own net of deceits.
the russians and chinese must really be laughing right now. the USA spends so much money trying to "catch" THEM to "contain" THEM in its webs and nets - with these games of power with smaller "client" states like pakistan - and it just ends up entrapping ITSELF - freeing THEM To go about the business of REORDERING the region -- AWAY from america's precious grand plans.
what a tragic comedy.
dont' they ever LEARN?
US policy in Iran is part of US policy in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Israel-Palestine ---- and on and on.
Sadly, given a few odd assumptions, the policy is more perverse than irrational, and "failure" is likely the sweetest fruit it will provide much of anyone.
-- Central Asia contains most of the world's hydrocarbon resources.
-- As they dwindle, the shortage provides opportunities for monopoly.
One could try to avoid catastrophe by trying to institute an alternative economy and technology. Or one could try to avoid catastrophe by hastening the end, burning hydrocarbons for military advantage, to control the world and position oneself favorably to use whatever resources are left while the world transitions to a different productive base.
US policy is quite consistent with the latter plan.
It may become vital to note that the game plan is something like this. It means that the naivete that makes Americans shocked over and over again when their government murders, kidnaps, or tortures make become an unmaintainable luxury.
The plan consistent with most US actions involves consolidating the elites against populations faced with massive shortages, and recent events like Katrina and the protests in Pittsburgh appear to have functioned as test cases for the kind of population control apt to be involved.