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extreme heat
Study Estimates Fossil Fuel Giants Have Inflicted $28 Trillion in Climate Damage Worldwide
As people around the world cope with the worsening effects of planetary heating, "the veil of plausible deniability doesn't exist anymore scientifically" for fossil fuel giants.
Apr 24, 2025
As planetary heating has fueled increasingly damaging hurricanes, wildfires, and dangerous heatwaves, fossil fuel giants have long been shielded by plausible deniability: Despite scientists' consensus that oil, gas, and coal extraction are polluting the planet and causing global temperatures to rise, they couldn't prove that specific corporations were to blame for worsening climate destruction.
A study published on Wednesday could change that.
Using modeling techniques that have been utilized for more than a decade to explain how climate change is fueling weather disasters, researchers at Dartmouth College estimated that 111 of the world's largest fossil fuel companies have caused $28 trillion in heat-related climate damages so far—slightly less than the value of all goods and services produced in the United States last year.
"The global economy would be $28 trillion richer," reads the study, "were it not for the extreme heat caused by the emissions from the 111 carbon majors considered here."
The study, published in Nature, found that more than half of that amount—which doesn't include damages from hurricanes and other extreme climate events—could be attributed to just 10 oil, coal, and gas companies including Chevron, ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, Russia's state-owned Gazprom, and Saudi Aramco.
"Everybody's asking the same question: What can we actually claim about who has caused this?" Dartmouth climate scientist Justin Mankin, co-author of the study, told Euronews.
The researchers pursued that question as climate advocates pushed policymakers to adopt the "polluters pay principle": the idea that companies that produce pollution should pay for the damages it causes. Earlier this year, a California Democratic lawmaker introduced legislation that would allow homeowners and businesses to recoup losses caused by climate disasters like the wildfires that devastated parts of the Los Angeles area.
"The global economy would be $28 trillion richer were it not for the extreme heat caused by the emissions from the 111 carbon majors considered here."
New York and Vermont have enacted laws that would hold fossil fuel companies accountable for greenhouse gas emissions and require them to pay for climate damages and adaptation, and other states are considering similar proposals—with oil and gas companies fighting back in court.
Mankin told Euronews that Dartmouth's new research shows that "the veil of plausible deniability doesn't exist anymore scientifically."
In the past, he said, carbon emitters could ask, "Who's to say that it's my molecule of CO2 that's contributed to these damages versus any other one?"
"We can actually trace harms back to major emitters," he said.
The research team examined the final emissions of the products produced by the 111 largest fossil fuel giants and used 1,000 distinct computer simulations to determine how those emissions impacted changes in the Earth's global average surface temperature, comparing the results to a simulation in which each company's emissions did not exist.
Epidemiologist Ali Khan said the method represented "great improvements in attribution" as at least 68 lawsuits have been filed globally demanding that polluters pay for damages. About half of those lawsuits have been filed in the United States.
"So far, attorneys and litigants have often named defendants as part of the initial legal process, under the assumption that knowing a defendant's emissions is sufficient to make a claim," reads the study. "Science can help claimants assess potential defendants in a transparent and low-cost way."
The researchers determined that Chevron's oil and gas extraction has raised the Earth's temperature by 0.025°C. The company is to blame for an estimated $1.98 trillion in climate damage, behind only Saudi Aramco, which is liable for an estimated $2.05 trillion, and Gazprom, which is responsible for $2 trillion.
Kevin Reed, a professor at Stony Brook University's School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, toldThe Washington Post that Dartmouth's research into climate damage attribution is "the real deal."
"This is the first time I've seen this done in a really comprehensive way that isn't just for one specific event," Reed said.
The European Green Party cataloged a number of steps that policymakers could take if $28 trillion had been saved by forcing companies to end their climate-wrecking emissions.
Financing 100% renewable energy would cost just $4 trillion, while guaranteeing universal housing and energy efficiency would cost $3 trillion, said the political party.
"Polluters," said the European Greens, "need to start paying for the damage they are causing to our planet."
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Report Details Record-Breaking Health Threats of Climate Crisis, Fossil Fuel Subsidies
"No individual or economy on the planet is immune from the health threats of climate change," said a lead researcher.
Oct 30, 2024
Over $1 trillion spent each year on subsidizing fossil fuel production must be redirected to public health efforts, said the experts behind a new annual report monitoring progress on the climate and global health.
The 2024 Report of the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change, published Tuesday in The Lancet by the Lancet Countdown at Universiy College London (UCL), found that delayed action on the climate emergency is exposing people across the globe to record-breaking threats, with 10 of 15 indicators showing that specific health threats have reached "concerning new levels."
"This year's stocktake of the imminent health threats of climate inaction reveals the most concerning findings yet in our eight years of monitoring," said Marina Romanello, executive director of the Lancet Countdown and a senior research fellow at UCL. "Once again, last year broke climate change records—with extreme heatwaves, deadly weather events, and devastating wildfires affecting people around the world."
With 2023 named the hottest year on record earlier this year by the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service, the researchers behind the new report found that the average person experienced an additional 50 days of dangerously hot weather that would not have happened without fossil fuel extraction heating the planet.
Heat-related deaths among people over age 65 reached the highest level ever recorded, 167% higher than in the 1990s and more than double the 65% increase that was expected if temperatures hadn't changed since then.
An additional 151 million people across 124 countries experienced moderate or severe food insecurity last year, an increase that was associated with extreme drought that affected almost half of global land area.
"We must cure the sickness of climate inaction—by slashing emissions, protecting people from climate extremes, and ending our fossil fuel addiction."
Changing climate conditions across the globe and the flooding that has come with more frequent hurricanes and tropical storms are also fueling a rise in the transmission of infectious diseases like dengue fever, according to the Lancet Countdown, and warmer coastal waters contributed a record-high number of cases of the bacterial infection vibriosis last year.
"The mosquitoes that spread infections like dengue fever epidemics are reaching new countries, and gradually moving north," said Anthony Costello, a professor at UCL Institute for Global Health and co-chair of the countdown.
But despite those indicators and others, said Romanello, "we see financial resources continue to be invested in the very things that undermine our health."
Researchers expressed optimism about rising investments in renewable energy, but warned that new fossil fuel investment accounted for more than a third of new energy spending in 2023, and 84% of world governments continue to subsidize fossil fuel production despite clear warnings from scientists that oil and gas extraction have no place on a pathway to limiting planetary heating to 1.5°C.
Governments are "in effect paying an estimated $1.4 trillion dollars per year to worsen the crisis," reportedThe Hill.
Meanwhile, "only 68% of countries reported high-to-very-high implementation of the legally mandated capacities to manage health emergencies in 2023," according to the Lancet Countdown. Just 35% of countries reported having early warning healthcare systems for heat-related illness.
"No individual or economy on the planet is immune from the health threats of climate change," said Romanello. "The relentless expansion of fossil fuels and record-breaking greenhouse gas emissions compounds these dangerous health impacts and is threatening to reverse the limited progress made so far and put a healthy future further out of reach."
Total carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion reached nearly 40 gigatonnes last year, a 1.1% increase from 2022, contributing to high levels of air pollution as well as changing climate conditions.
"National-level net subsidies exceeded 10% of national health spending in 55% of the countries, and 100% in 27% of them," reads a visual summary of the report. "These funds could be redirected towards supporting the transition to clean energy sources, protect vulnerable populations from soaring climate change risks, and enable a healthy future."
Redirecting fossil fuel subsidies "would provide the opportunity to deliver a fair, equitable transition to clean energy and energy efficiency, and a healthier future, ultimately benefiting the global economy," said Romanello.
Released less than two weeks before world governments are set to convene in Azerbaijan for the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29), where climate finance is expected to be a key issue, the report calls for "new strategies and finance for implementation" in order to protect global public health from climate disasters.
"These must acknowledge climate change's effects on health and related systems, assess risks and vulnerabilities, and incorporate resilience to shocks," reads a joint brief by the Lancet Countdown and Médecins Sans Frontières, also called Doctors Without Borders. "Adequate, predictable, and unified climate finance for adaptation and technical support is urgently needed to enable ministries of health and their implementing partners to adopt forward-thinking strategies, integrate anticipatory actions, and enhance flexibility and agility in their operating models."
U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said the report shows "we must cure the sickness of climate inaction—by slashing emissions, protecting people from climate extremes, and ending our fossil fuel addiction—to create a fairer, safer, and healthier future for all."
To shift resources toward a "zero-emissions future," said Costello, "people's health must be put front and center of climate change policy to ensure the funding mechanisms protect well-being, reduce health inequities and maximize health gains, especially for the countries and communities that need it most."
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After 100 Days of 100°F, Sanders Says 'Climate Emergency Demands a Massive-Scale Mobilization'
"This is a moral imperative," said the senator as historic heat continued in Phoenix, Arizona.
Sep 05, 2024
U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders on Wednesday evening issued yet another call for a major mobilization to take on the fossil fuel-driven climate crisis in response to a new record in Phoenix, Arizona: 100 straight days of the temperature hitting at least 100°F.
"100 straight days of 100-degree heat," Sanders (I-Vt.) said on social media, sharing a report from The Washington Post. "The heatwave has killed at least 150 people this summer in Phoenix alone."
"The climate emergency demands a massive-scale mobilization," stressed the senator, a longtime advocate for a swift, just transition away from oil and gas. "There is no choice. This is a moral imperative."
The death toll comes from the Post, which noted that in 2023, the hottest year on record globally, "heat deaths increased 50% from 2022, reaching a record of 645 people in Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix. This year, 150 heat deaths have been confirmed by the government and an additional 440 deaths are under investigation."
Increasingly deadly extreme heat is a national issue. Research published last month in the peer-reviewed Journal of the American Medical Associationshows that heat-related deaths in the United States rose 117% between 1999 and 2023, with the highest rates recorded in Arizona, California, Nevada, and Texas.
After the 100-day mark on Tuesday, the National Weather Service (NWS) said Wednesday that "with the high temperature exceeding 110°F at Phoenix Sky Harbor this afternoon, the number of days of 110°F+ high temperatures for the year now ties last year's record number of 110°F+ highs at 55 days. Expect a new record to be set tomorrow (forecasted highs of 110-115°F)."
The NWS warned Thursday that "unseasonably hot conditions are expected to persist into next week," projecting temperatures between 108-114°F in the Arizona city through Monday.
As the Arizona Republicreported earlier this week:
Not only was this the hottest summer on record in Phoenix, but in Flagstaff, Winslow, Kingman Douglas, and Tucson too.
"For most of the state, it's looking like the hottest summer on record," said Sean Benedict, the lead meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Phoenix. "There were several locations around Arizona that set the record for the hottest summer."
Climate Centralpointed out Tuesday that the extreme heat in and around Phoenix was "made at least four to five times MORE likely to occur (yes, even in early September) due to human-caused climate change."
As communities around the world have endured intense heat throughout 2024, scientists have warned it could break the 2023 record and become the new hottest year in human history. The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said last month that the most recent July was just barely the second-warmest July globally—ending a streak that lasted from June 2023 to June 2024, during which each month was the hottest on record.
"Globally, July 2024 was almost as warm as July 2023, the hottest month on record," C3S deputy director Samantha Burgess said at the time. "July 2024 saw the two hottest days on record. The overall context hasn't changed, our climate continues to warm. The devastating effects of climate change started well before 2023 and will continue until global greenhouse gas emissions reach net-zero."
Although C3S has not yet released its official findings for last month, Agence France-Pressereported Tuesday that the agency's preliminary data show that "August 2024 should be on a par with last year's record 16.82°C (62.28°F)."
The C3S findings slightly conflict with those of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which found that the latest July "was Earth's warmest July on record, extending the streak of record-high monthly global temperatures to 14 successive months." NOAA also hasn't yet released its data for August.
What climate experts agree on is that much more must be done to address the crisis created by fossil fuels. As World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said in response to this summer's findings: "Climate adaptation alone is not enough. We need to tackle the root cause and get serious about reducing record levels of greenhouse gas emissions."
In addition to transitioning from fossil fuels to green energy, some have called for going after corporate giants that continue to rake in record profits from their planet-wrecking products. In June, Public Citizen unveiled a legal memo detailing how local or state prosecutors could bring criminal charges against Big Oil for deaths from extreme heat—using Arizona as an example.
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