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Climate Change Is 'Faster and More Extreme' Than Feared
Climate change is happening much faster than the world's best scientists predicted and will wreak havoc unless action is taken on a global scale, a new report warns.
'Extreme weather events' such as the hot summer of 2003, which caused an extra 35,000 deaths across southern Europe from heat stress and poor air quality, will happen more frequently.
Arctic sea-ice in September 1979 and 2007, showing the biggest reduction since satellite surveillance began. (Photo: Fugro NPA Ltd) Britain and
the North Sea area will be hit more often by violent cyclones and the
predicted rise in sea level will double to more than a metre, putting
vast coastal areas at risk from flooding.
The bleak report from WWF - formerly the World Wildlife Fund - also predicts crops failures and the collapse of eco systems on both land and sea.
And it calls on the EU to set an example to the rest of the world by agreeing a package of challenging targets for cutting greenhouse gas emissions to tackle the consequences of climate change and to keep any increase in global temperatures below 2C.
The agency says that the 2007 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - a study of global warming by 4,000 scientists from more than 150 countries which alerted the world to the possible consequences of global warming - is now out of date.
WWF's report, Climate Change: Faster, stronger, sooner, has updated all the scientific data and concluded that global warming is accelerating far beyond the IPCC's forecasts.
As an example it says the first 'tipping point' may have already been reached in the Arctic, where sea ice is disappearing up to 30 years ahead of IPCC predictions and may be gone completely within five years - something that hasn't occurred for a million years.
It could result in rapid and abrupt climate change rather than the gradual changes forecast by the IPCC.
The findings include:
* Global sea level rise could more than double from the IPCC's estimate of 0.59m by the end of the century.
* Natural carbon sinks, such as forests and oceans, are losing their ability to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere faster than expected.
* Rising temperatures have already led to a major reduction in food crops resulting in losses of 40m tonnes of grain per year.
* Marine ecosystems in the North and Baltic Sea are being exposed to the warmest temperatures measured since records began.
* The number and intensity of extreme cyclones over the UK and North Sea are projected to increase, leading to increased wind speeds and storm-related losses over Western and Central Europe.
The report was issued to coincide with a meeting of EU Environment Ministers today to discuss new laws aimed at tackling climate change. Some countries, including Italy and Poland, have already rejected proposals for higher cuts in emissions claiming they are unaffordable and unrealistic when many countries are facing recession.
The UK is the only country so far to commit to a legally binding 80 per cent cut in emissions by 2050 which the Government claims can be achieved by a switch to renewable energy sources - such as wind and wave - combined with a new generation of nuclear power stations.
In the report WWF urges the EU to commit to a reduction target of at least 30 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020 without relying on offsetting overseas and to provide financial support so developing countries can cut their own emissions and prepare for unavoidable impacts of climate change.
WWF-UK's Head of Climate Change, Dr. Keith Allott, said: "Climate change is a major challenge to the future of mankind and the environment, and this sobering overview highlights just how critical it is that EU environment ministers, who are meeting today to discuss EU legislation to tackle climate change, commit to a strong climate and energy package, in order to ensure a low carbon future.
"If the European Union wants to be seen as leader at UN talks in Copenhagen next year, and to help secure a strong global deal to tackle climate change after 2012, then it must stop shirking its responsibilities and commit to real emissions cuts within Europe."
The report has been endorsed by Professor Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, the newly elected Vice Chair of the IPCC, who said: "It is clear that climate change is already having a greater impact than most scientists had anticipated, so it's vital that international mitigation and adaptation responses become swifter and more ambitious."
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84 Comments so far
Show AllA global New Deal that corrals global capitalism immediately is the only way to slow down this global catastrophe.
I wonder how the could-vote-either-Dem-or-Rep number compares to the voted-for-a-third-party-to-the-left-of-the-Dems number.
I also wonder what would happen if people to the left of the Democrats tried to take over the Republican Party.
Democrats like to emphasize, when speaking to third party voters, that if they push "lefty fringe" ideas, they'll lose election after election.
The case is often made that unless Democrats are able to attract more of the "swing either way" voters in the middle, they'll lose. Accordingly, they call for moderate, incremental changes rather than radical changes.
Democrats always make the case, always, that those on the left are "purists" and that adherence to a set of rigid ideals will result in the greater of two evils getting elected. Associated with this argument is that more Americans, often the weakest and poorest Americans, will suffer.
Each one of these arguments is a political, electoral argument. Viewed in the narrowest terms of winning and losing elections, some of these arguments, maybe even all, contain an element of truth.
Unfortunately, what these themes buy into is that winning and losing elections is an end in itself. The result of this foolishness is that neither of the two major parties is able or willing to exercise real leadership.
Does anyone believe either party is leveling with the American people about the devastation global warming will cause? Do you believe we can "technology" our way out of the crisis with no radical changes to our lifestyles?
Life on the planet hangs in the balance. While Democrats make perfectly good arguments about "helping the middle class", they fail to acknowledge, or perhaps even understand, that hundreds of millions of people might die because of global warming.
We need to throw "everything we have" at global warming. How can anyone justify spending $1.1 trillion a year on the military and, as Mr. Obama proposes, spending only $150 billion OVER TEN YEARS on developing alternative energy sources. That plan might win him an election; it might also cause hundreds of millions of deaths. But, to Democrats, winning is everything. Spelling out the truth to the American people and LEADING the nation in the right direction is somehow LESS IMPORTANT. Winning is an end in itself.
We need to localize agriculture. We cannot allow agribusiness, which uses more energy than autos or home heating, to operate unencumbered by national policy. Agriculture must be localized. Free market capitalism has no mechanism to make the radical changes global warming demands.
We need to radically reduce the number of commuter miles driven. This is not some kind of "fringe" program that lefties like. We have no choice. Again, this needs to be a government mandated program. Employers should be required to find ways to get their employees to work from home. They should be required to setup satellite offices closer to where employees live. Free market capitalism has no effective mechanism to address the problem.
Reread the base article. The devastation global warming will cause cannot be permitted to happen. It is not an "electoral choice." It is not a question of which candidate is a little better on the issue. What's at stake here is life itself.
There's a huge difference between what must be done to win an election and what must be done to take an electoral risk but provide real leadership on global warming. Americans would likely be shocked to hear some of the radical changes we'll need to make. Perhaps they would reject a candidate promoting these ideas; perhaps, on the other hand, they would respect that candidate's integrity.
Either way, what we need to "win" is our very survival; that's way more than just winning an election.
Companies should provide company housing, like they used to. This would save their workers the costs of car payments, insurance, gas and repairs. And it would save the planet.
.Agribusiness, I believe, is second to automobiles in the use of petrochemicals.....
.
We see things, not as they are, but as we are.
Anais Nin
I hope we can hold out until January 20.
What is going to happen on January 20 that will reverse the course of global climate change??
END MOUNTAIN TOP REMOVAL ! http://www.wisecountyissues.com
This article was on HuffPost last night, and the Deniers and conspiracy theorists jumped all over it like flies on dead meat. The ratio might have been 3 or 4 to 1 against GW alarm.
10-12 years ago it was all the rage to be a neocon wannabe. A little Rush or Sean. Recently these folks have been taken down a peg. Now its apparently fashionable to be a GW Denier. All I can say is, No second chances Deniers. You don't know what you are risking.
RaydelCamino: You got it, but its not happening until things get even worse.
all these 2020's, 2050's are a waste of time..............if nothing is done RIGHT now, we won't stand a chance.
James Lovelock was on UK tv the other day saying that the crucial tipping point may already be past. He was talking about the reduced albedo effect of arctic ice loss. No amount of carbon reduction, he says, will stop the oceans absorbing enormous amounts of heat that would normally be reflected. If he's right, we're in deep trouble. The world simply won't be able to produce enough food for all of us. In Europe and the US we won't starve, probably, but millions in Africa and elsewhere will, and we'll all feel the effects. Time to stop pretending we can prevent climate change.
No sense in stressing out about this, it will unfold as it is supposed to. No amount of human effort in the time allotted will deter these changes. Better to get ready to adapt to them rather than trying to counteract them. Besides it seems that we will burn the last drop of oil about the same time that the last ice cube is melted. Pretty significant if you ask me. GW real or imagined. Well denying it will make the reality just that much more painful. Either way we are doomed as a species. And Good riddance to us as well. We are a fluke of the universe and have no right to be here.
How do you adapt to extinction?
eternally...................................................
Agreed, we all need to slow down and reject endless growth. This is done via our choices and how we live.
As far as ego issues - while it may be some ego that makes us reproduce, I would say it's more biological. Every specie on Earth lives to reproduce. The problem is, we don't know when enough is.
.A somewhat false analogy...Most species are ruled by environmental considerations as far as the reproductive urge is concerned. When food is scarce, or winter severe, or summers too dry and hot reproduction is limited. We, on the other hand, are under no such restrictions.
This is why your inference that this is an individual problem is a dangerous and not at all helpful suggestion. The problems of global warming will only be solved by a concerted effort on the part of all humanity, the individual cannot possibly cope with such as this. , excepting, in democratic nations, by the means of voting the correct politicians into office.
.
We see things, not as they are, but as we are.
Anais Nin
"The problems of global warming will only be solved by a concerted effort on the part of all humanity, the individual cannot possibly cope with such as this. , excepting, in democratic nations, by the means of voting the correct politicians into office."
Right and wrong. Maybe you missed Ira's latest, "Lefties for Obama." Chernus posits that the Dems represent "small but meaningful change." If you think that climate change can be reversed with "small" changes than I would say you are not in Kansas anymore, Dorthy.
.I believe that our system of governance lends itself only to small or gradual change. I also believe that the Democratic Party, as currently constituted and directioned, provides no solutions. The world is facing this problem and it will be the world that brings us to a solution. Not any individual nation, no matter how strong or wealthy.
.
We see things, not as they are, but as we are.
Anais Nin
ardee,
I'm not your enemy, so why don't you stop manufacturing me.
I do not think that it is merely an individual problem, but waiting for governments or voting our way out of this is putting the cart before the horse.
Politicians vote for bills based on who supports them, both in terms of money and votes. They bring home the bacon for US, who support them for doing so. No one, neither the politicians, nor the corporate masters, nor we the people, have been willing to put our nation and our world before our personal interests. As long as we feed this loop, the problem will persist. Merely voting someone in who has all the right goals, even if they get elected, is bound to fail unless we have come to grips with our own proclivities. It is not an either/or problem, it is all of the above. What I am suggesting is that we, as individuals, look in the mirror, as your tag line infers. The question is, can we see ourselves as we really are? Do we even want to?
..Goodness, wherever did you get such an idea? I do not perceive you as an enemy at all..Can you not accept a differing opinion without taking offense? Frankly I see much dichotomy in your posts and really am uncertain as to where you land on loyalty and how you view the road to progress. By the by the dichotomies to which I refer is also not an attack....
My post was in response to your inference that a solution will be found through individual effort to not participate in the behaviors which lead to more such global warming. I find no attack therein, even after several readings. Your comment on reproduction needed the clarification I provided to be accurate, I believed. It contained no insult or attack.
Govts do not serve the people, they serve, in point of fact, the very lifestyles which provide the sources of global warming and provide them shelter from the wrath of an increasingly threatened people. Our society is one loud compunction to buy,buy,buy. That is the way of capitalism, make everything a profit center, and at an increasingly large cost. I see no mass awareness of this hypnosis, only isolated and fragmented opposition with no idea how to merge or proceed.
I consider myself a pragmatist of sorts, but a pragmatism that operates within strict limits. That is why I support Nader in fact instead of the status quo. That is why I cannot help but think that unless we join together and create a sea change in our governance we cannot overcome the established order. I see, in fact, the solution coming only from tragedy and necesity, if even then. I believe in technology and its abilities to find solutions to seemingly impossible problems. I see emerging technologies providing great wealth and full employment in fact. Perhaps we will fail, heck the dinosaur had sixty five million years and we have been here about twelve thousand.
I guess this post has run on a bit, sorry, it started out as an assurance that I hold you no ill will, only my own versions of the way I see things. That those differ, at times, from your own is to be expected. That there are differences is not the same thing as hostility or ill will. I have, in the past, been rather sharp with those whose posts I found to be without merit or maturity. I do not believe that yours were ever given such short shrift.
.
We see things, not as they are, but as we are.
Anais Nin
A Nuremberg style proceeding for those who knowingly denied the problem in exchange for pay is entirely appropriate. In fact, I would have them tried first before the oil company executives.
Most humans believe the universe is human-centric and that humans can control everything.
It is only when you realize that there is no difference between billions of little humans clinging to the face of the earth, and billions of maggots clinging to a pile of shit that the myth of human control dissipates. The earth and the universe in which it exists will survive just fine after all of the humans die, and the pile of shit will survive just fine after all of the maggots die.
I agree we need to do everything we can to change our ways. However, we can't convince everyone to do that. That's a simple, undeniable fact. The idiots in the world always far outnumber those of us who are conscientious. So the bottom line is, brace yourself. We are going down, as a species. Many individuals will be lost, many communities, many cultures. Much of the very best part of human civilization will be destroyed, as it is every time a tragedy befalls. The ancients had art, culture, literature, legal systems, social mores--almost all of which were lost through war, natural disasters, or extermination. The planet will go through a death cycle, then another life cycle will begin.
In the end, a remnant of humanity will be saved. There is always a remnant that survives. There doesn't seem to be any way to predict who or what will survive, but that's life.
If you want to see a snapshot of what life will be like when the planet starts to die, try reading Nature's End, by Strieber and Kinetka.
The only way forward is to realise that we are all one with all we co-habit this one planet the Earth we live on.
Unfortunatley the political leaders are under the control of the Ruling Elite who want to control everything and couldn't give a damn about anything but themselves.
This pyramid system of human society has to end and end now and be replaced with an equality system where all is equal and we work together for the benefit of not just humanity but the Earth herself as we are all children of the Earth.
It is time to stop working for the benefit of the Ruling Elite and stop wasting all our time, resources and effort in destructivity of weapons and resource stripping and work for the benefit of all, together as one in creativity to better all of humanity and the Earth.
peace and love
all is illusion...there is no government
Amen!
And with the US, and China, being, by far, the world's biggest users of fossil fuels, (worse with the Bush de-regulation but we never even signed Kyoto), it would probably HELP to convince Poland and Italy, to cut their emmissions if both countries would decide to act in concert. (US and China) Until we agree to do something--we're just blowing smoke out of our ass.
Our consumerism is not on a future collision course with the biosphere, it collided the day consumerism was defined and implemented as the economic standard and unit of measure for success. The theory and practice itself is based off a system that is so obviously unsustainable that a grade school student has enough knowledge to label it foolish and ignorant.
We have collided as a species with our only home and are in the process of following through. Sustainability will become our new measuring tool but only in the sense that it dances in relation to consumption. We need to look at our planet and life a different way. Everything we need to survive and flourish is abundantly available to us as long as we work within the confines of common sense.
Life, by definition, struggles to fill every void of our natural world, there is enough to go around. Irrational consumption, waste, and complete lack of respect for life, or respect of life with conditions, are the demons that form the foundation of our troubled world. We must let go of the assumption that Wal-Mart and Visa are providing us a true glimpse of things to come. They are not.
www.oneplanetonelife.com
SO! Who actually cares? This article desn't have a story about McCain denying he's Bush, or Obama saying we have to resort to "CLEAN" Coal, or Palin telling jokes on Saturday Nite Live.
If there are comments from 30 different bloggers I'll be amazed unless 19 are from GW deniers and if this thread isn't buried in the archives by Wednesday afternoon I'll be even more amazed.
~Kem Patrick~
Hi Kem,
Great to hear from you after so long.
Many do not, will not care, if they are struggling to make ends meet, wondering how they will find the money to buy food and other necessities, while trillions are proffered to those very same corps and individuals who are raping the environment as they line their pockets at everyone else's expense. Many of these issues are interrelated, and we cannot deal with one without dealing with the others. A holistic approach is needed. Mankind is destroying itself in so many ways: socially, economically, and environmentally.
What can people do who are slaving from sunup to sundown in a factory just to make ends meet, while the corporations who employ them care only about profits and enriching investors at the expense of everything and everyone else? All these issues are beginning to come together in ways we can no longer deny--or deny at our peril. This means we cannot save the environment without addressing other related issues as well. The question is: will the majority [of us] realize this in time?
Another tipping point was passed this last summer: Off the Russian Arctic Ocean coast methane bubbled to the surface. The source is the methane clathrates formerly trapped beneath the seabed permafrost. A downward warm current has melted holes in the permafrost. The methane in the area atmosphere is now 100 times higher than the current worldwide atmospheric methane level. The release of methane from methane clathrates into the atmosphere is a positive feedback.
We seem to be creating our own gas chamber.
.Ironically all the calls for more offshore drilling will increase the discharge of such into our athmosphere. This by product of sea bed extraction of oil and gas is many times more dangerous to the warming of our planet than is CO2....
.
We see things, not as they are, but as we are.
Anais Nin
Considering how we're constantly discovering that this is further and faster along than we expected, and that there are more and more elements in play to make matters "even worse than we thought", my guess is that it's already WAY beyond too late to slow it down.
I am a bit surprised that people aren't scared out of their goddamn wits about this, but there is that apathy-acceptance that lets politicians get away with saying "We need a 10% reduction by 2050", or whatever the hell it is. This is political, because you can't rave about global warming and extinction if you want to get elected. Maybe it's unfortunate that we have a "democracy" at this time. If we had some god-king concerned with the longevity of his world empire, I bet we'd have seen incredible action by now. Instead, the market's decided to let its own people drown and starve.
Yes it is a real mystery why Americans are so lethargic in the face of a possible extinction event. Very strange....
snydly
That's why they call them ."extinction events"...
Well, I guess that something has to destroy the ailing, corrupt capitalist system.
I would have hoped it might be human intelligence but not so! A bucket of money is superior to the human brain every time.
Global warming is the planet's response to the decadence and overwhelming greed that humans have engaged in for the last century.
It's payback time, folks. It's coming to a venue near you soon. Better put in a garden, dig a well, keep some hens, quick smart.
www.dangerouscreation.com
No one will do anything. Humans think they are better than nature as has already been stated.
The democrat argument about incremental changes is exactly what enviro groups do. Logic dictates promoting vegetarianism is the way to go now-but they wont do that--too radical--eating hamburger meat that was sprayed with manure or raising cattle that eat the remains of other cattle--that's mainstream thinking apparently.
Common sense is out the window.
Kem Patrick
Hi ~Braithwa~ Yeah, I've gotten a bit discourged, as few seeem to accept this as a serious problem and I know of nothing more serious.
Hi ~Jack~ you are correct about the Arctic's methane, 100% correct. However, do not expect any to survve after the 400 gigatons of Arctic methane is fully released, that will set off global warming like few have ever imagined. When that disaster transpires, the really huge amounts of methane in the world's oceans will release and then the game will be over.
I have posted this link so many times I've lost track, but it is the most important article ever penned by anyone and few have ever paid much attention to it. It fully explains it all. It was first published here at Common Dreams about four years ago and we were warned and does anyone care? ____ Not very many.
http://www.energybulletin.net/3647.html
It can be read and understood in about three minutes and the man knows what he is talking about. One important sentence is: ____( Once the Arctic's methanme begins to relase, there is no turning back, no do-overs. ) ___ Well, it's started and if there is any turning back, we'd bettter try to do t NOW.
Do you ever see maps showing the regression of the icecap in your daily paper or on the evening news, even the 24hr channels w/talking idiot-heads. Nothing must be done that might threaten short-term profits. Economic growth and the stock markets are all that matter. When seaboard cities are flooding CNN will immediately haul out "experts" to discuss how it will affect the stock market.
Now this is the real "Change you can believe in", but it just ain't as sexy as the hero worshiping distractions of humans in denial.
Escaping the consequences that are upon us is not an option. Prepare yourselves now.
Yes prepare yourselves now...
Do you remember when they taught the kids to "duck and cover" in the event of a nuclear attack?
When you see the sea level rising, run for the hills along with the other 6.6 billion humans. It is gonna be really hot and sticky and crowded up there, so please dress appropriately!
It is true that no corporate politician has run on an environmental platform. But Green Party candidate Rich Whitney ran for Illinois Governor on that very platform.
Common Dreamers ignoring Green candidates is like Americans ignoring global warming warnings.
http://www.whitneyforgov.org/joomla/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=7&Itemid=15
The one picture I belive was PhotoShopped? And everything here on Earth is just fine. Why, our reticent news media hasn't said a word of this methane gas.
On a more serious note, the Arctic's methane gas is indeed real. There are those that'll believe we can "drill" our way out of this mess. Not this time. Methane is caustic, especially the amount which could very well be released by Mother Natures Artic. We're messin with the wrong ladie. She won't relent.
"Methane is caustic"
No, methane is not caustic.
From Wikipedia
Combustion
In the combustion of methane, several steps are involved:
Methane is believed to form a formaldehyde (HCHO or H2CO). The formaldehyde gives a formyl radical (HCO), which then forms carbon monoxide (CO). The process is called oxidative pyrolysis:
CH4 + O2 → CO + H2 + H2O
Following oxidative pyrolysis, the H2 oxidizes, forming H2O, replenishing the active species,[clarify] and releasing heat. This occurs very quickly, usually in significantly less than a millisecond.
2H2 + O2 →2H2O
Finally, the CO oxidizes, forming CO2 and releasing more heat. This process is generally slower than the other chemical steps, and typically requires a few to several milliseconds to occur.
2CO + O2 →2CO2
The result of the above is the following total equation:
CH4(g) + 2O2(g) → CO2(g) + 2H2O(l) + 890 kJ/mol
where bracketed "g" stands for gaseous form and bracketed "l" stands for liquid form.
Hi ~RUMILUV~ excellent points, we see almost nothing about this on the news. A few weeks ago CNN had a program, "Planet In Peril". They had a professor from the Univ of Alaska on and she spoke about the thaw of the Arctic's perma-frost. That's all she does, she studies the perma-frost, it's her lifetime work. She used the same words John Atcheson did in his article,__"A ticking Time Bomb" is how she also described the release of the Arctic's methane gas into our atmosphere. "Ticking time bombs" are deadly serious issues.
Time magazine did an article on the subject last month also, but no reaction from our "famous" media. I'd bet that less than 1% of the public is aware of the issue and of course our elected are oblivious of it. Even Al Gore, who has done an admirable job of advertising Global Warming has ignored the methane issue, why is amyone's guess.
Hi ~STILBA~ You sure hit a nail! Why everyone isn't scared shitles is beyond me too. This is no joke and it's not some long haired, bearded nutcase wearing a white sheet belted with a rope screaming, "the end is near."
When the Arctic finishes thawing, the end will be near and as Doctor Benton wrote, ALL LIFE, down to the microbal level will be terminated within hours when the ocean's 'currently safely stored' methane is relesed. It happened before and we humans are insuring it will happen once again. ___ Who cares?
I'll write one more comment here and then shut up.
Think of this imaginary scenerio. ( Scientists discover that a massive asteroid is on a 100% sure-fire collision course with Earth, and it will hit somewhere in the South Atlantic on August 3rd at 2pm, 2011.)
If that story were so, you can bet the farm, your kids piggy bakk and or, your faltering 401-K, that ALL of the world's leaders would get together and have top levle scientists delvelop a plan to alter the flght path of that asteroid.
We have a like situation with the thawing of the Artic, which no one in their right mind can deny is happening and it's not an imaginary issue, it's real.
So why the world's leaders are not ganging up to fight it is beyod me. Why this thread will not be a permanent first thread issue for at least a month is beyond me also. ___ There is nothing on this planet Earth of more importance.
~Kem Patrick~ P/S__ Hi there ~Coco~, how ya doin?
hi kem, been wondering where you got to...............i'm doing fine here in sunny southern europe.
i like your idea about the asteroid..........so it makes me wonder if what someone above said that there is nothing we can do about the g.w./c.c. and that is why the govts. aren't really 'rushing' to do anything constructive. but hey, nothing ventured, nothing gained...........
btw, 'under a green sky' by peter d ward ph d. gives us an idea of what it will be like when the methane comes out..........nasty.
Coco,
What I think is even more relevant to todays scenario using the positions stated in the book "under A Green Sky" by Peter Ward (which looks like you've made your way through) is that there is incontrovertible evidence in the rocks of yesteryear that show exactly how what happened then (the Permian extinction) is happening now. I've always said the real bad stuff is going to happen when the sea bed hydrates (clathrates) begin to melt. Looks like we have defintitely begun.
Too bad it is invisible. People simply cannot wrap their heads around anything that is invisible. I believe we will only "see" once it is too late. We've begun the process of too late already.