Glacial Acceleration - A Sea of Troubles
It is hard to shock journalists and at the same time leave them in awe of the power of nature. A group returning from a helicopter trip flying over, then landing on, the Greenland ice cap at the time of maximum ice melt last month were shaken. One shrugged and said:”It is too late already.”
What they were all talking about was the moulins, not one moulin but hundreds, possibly thousands. “Moulin” is a word I had only just become familiar with. It is the name for a giant hole in a glacier through which millions of gallons of melt water cascade through to the rock below. The water has the effect of lubricating the glaciers so they move at three times the rate that they did previously.
Some of these moulins in Greenland are so big that they run on the scale of Niagra Falls. The scientists who accompanied these journalists on the trip were almost as alarmed. That is pretty significant because they are world experts on ice and Greenland in particular.
We were visiting Ilulissat, Greenland, once a stronghold of Innuit hunters but now with so little ice that the dog sleds are in danger of falling through even in the depth of winter.
But it is not the lack of sea ice that worries scientists and should be of serious concern to the inhabitants of coastal zones across the world. Cities like New York and states like Florida are in the front line.
Scientists know this already, but just to give you some idea of the problem, the Greenland ice cap is melting at such a fast rate it is triggering earthquakes as pieces of ice several cubic kilometres in size break up.
Scientists say the acceleration of melting and subsequent speeding up of giant glaciers could be catastrophic in terms of sea level rise and make previous predictions published this year by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) far too low. The glacier at Ilulissat, which it is believed spawned the iceberg which sank the Titantic, is now flowing three times faster into the sea than it was 10 years ago.
Robert Correll, chairman of the Artic Climate Impact Assessment, from Washington told me:”We have seen a massive acceleration of the speed with which these glaciers are moving into the sea. The ice is moving at 2 metres an hour on a front five kilometres long and 1,500 metres deep. “That means that this one glacier puts enough fresh water into the sea in one day to provide drinking water for a city the size New York or London for a year.”
Professor Correll, who is also director of the global change programme at the Heinz Centre in Washington said the estimates of sea level rise in the IPCC report in February had been “conservative” and based on data two years old. The range of rise this century had been predicted to be 20 to 60 centimetres, but would be the upper end of this range at a minimum and some now believed it could be two metres. This would have catastrophic effects for European and US coastlines.
He said newly invented ice penetrating radar showed that the melt water was pouring through to the bottom of the glacier creating a melt water lake 500 metres deep causing the glacier “to float on land. “These melt water rivers are lubricating the glacier, like applying oil to a surface and causing it to slide into the sea. It is causing a massive acceleration which could be catastrophic.”
The glacier is now moving at 15 kilometres a year into the sea although in periodic surges it moves even faster. He has seen a surge, which he had measured as moving five kilometres in 90 minutes - an extraordinary event.
If all of Greenland melts, something we were previously assured would take thousands of years, but now could be hundreds, then sea level round the world would rise seven metres. That is without any contribution from the Antarctic, the glaciers of Alaska, the Rockies, the Himalayas, or the ocean water expanding as it warms.
So the talk of sea level rise should not be in centuries, it should be decades or perhaps even single years. For 10,000 years, during all of human civilisation sea level remained stable leading us to believe that coastlines remained roughly in the same place. A century ago the sea began to rise one millimetre a year, 20 years ago it had reached two millimetres and this century it has risen to 3 millimetres. This annual rise may not seem much but add hurricane storm surges and high tides and we are soon saying good bye to a lot of coastal settlements - like the Big Apple.
Switch forward a week from the helicopter ride to George W. Bush’s meeting of 16 of the biggest greenhouse gas emitters in Washington last month and what do we hear. We hear lots of rhetoric about how, along with terrorism, climate change is the biggest threat to the earth - although the catastrophic sea level rise facing our major coastal cities does not rate a mention.
But instead of decisive political action (as with terrorism) we get suggestions from the President of voluntary cuts in emissions, down to the government of each country, and then next summer another conference to discuss where we have got to - which on past form will be nowhere at all. It did not sound like the much needed change of heart from the President, but just another delaying tactic to tide him over until his term of office ends.
Although it may sound like it, the commentators in Europe are not singling out America for criticism, although it has to be said as often as possible that the US is the world’s most profligate nation when it comes to fossil fuel consumption, AND has rejected the only legally binding international agreement that could do something about it. But Europeans are not doing enough either. We need convincing that our own leaders have enough political will to reach the tiny Kyoto targets that are the minimum first step to tackling this problem. The public hears the latest scientists’ warnings that an 80% cut in greenhouse gas emissions is needed if we are to stave off catastrophic climate change, yet wait in vain for the policies needed to achieve them.
In my book, protestors wearing George Bush masks are pictured “fiddling while the earth burns.” Maybe he is just the lead violinist of the orchestra.
Paul Brown was the environment correspondent for The Guardian newspaper for 16 years and has worked in newspaper journalism for more than 40 years. He has written extensively about climate change, population, biodiversity, pollution, energy, desertification, and ocean management. Brown has appeared in and written television documentaries on environmental issues, contributed to books on green politics, and is the author of several books on the environment. He is the author of Global Warning: The Last Chance for Change. See also www.globalwarningbook.com
copyright Paul Brown 2007
Enjoy it while it lasts, the last barrel of oil, the last ice cube cease to exist on the same moment. Here comes the new lifestyle are you ready?
Common Dreamers,
The question, as always: how shall we live? Do we challenge ourselves, now, today, to change, to stop participating in the continued pumping of fossil carbon into the atmosphere? And then begin the long work of naturally remediating the damage we have done?
Or do we keep on driving, and flying, and buying food from the other side of the Earth, and buying literally tons of useless crap, and anesthesizing ourselves with drugs and with “entertainment” in myriad forms?
Do we strip our lives down, and work with the essentials to try to create human communities that can live in harmony with the Earth?
Or do we continue dreaming of techno-industrial “answers” to problems created by our technology and industry?
Either way, we WILL change, drastically, and soon. Will we change consciously, intelligently, because we see the state of the Earth and decide to do the best we can? Or will we change stupidly, as our cities flood and our agriculture collapses and billions die?
Time may already have determined the outcome, but we should make conscious changes now, even if the disruptions already under way will flood our cities and ruin our agriculture.
“As I read the story of what we’ve done and do, my heart breaks for sorrow, my head bows for shame — we have killed all our yesterdays and tomorrows…”
– Crazy Bird
Taking individual climate responsibility makes one feel they are doing something, but is merely a salve on the conscience to stop an itch. The problem has to be solved starting from the mass of people causing change from the top down. Why are humans or industries are doing their best to insure the destruction of the planet? Who stands to gain the most by destroying the livability of Earth for humans? Assuming a majority of humans want to take steps about Rapid Climate Change, what can be done to start with patching the biggest whorles in the levee first? Reduce use of archived energy to 10% of current levels. I think I’ll recommend that one of the subtitles in my report on humans be entitiled “Misunderestimaters”.
(By the way, whorles combines two words, one of which is “holes”.) Fun
The way destructive capitalism has taken over the earth and people following fools like the TWO GEORGE BUSH’S maybe its time for the big meltdown.
I was struck by the statement of one of the journalists that “It’s too late already.” Yes, it probably is. But that’s all the more reason to get busy and figure out how to save what we still can of our beautiful planet.
I posted this info the other day on two of the CD blog threads - no response, but then so many of us seem to prefer complaining about the evil-doers in the world to trying to really find answers so I didn’t expect otherwise. But I’ll post it again -
Last Friday night on NOW Bill Moyers carried a story about grid-free homes in the US. He says there are already 200,000 to 300,000 of them; they use solar, wind, geo-thermal, and whatever else their local environment provides. Grow as much of their own food as they can, drive green cars, ride bikes or walk, etc. And they enjoy it. And they look pretty healthy, too.
This lifestyle is what we must all adopt and ASAP. The key is the word LOCAL. If there does have to be a grid for cities it should be small local cooperatives using green energy, and definitely not a money-making stock-issuing corporation using fossil fuels.
I also know there are numerous small companies installing solar panels on their roofs and suchlike things. And my own state (NY) has several wind power arrays working just fine. So it’s a start.
We are still in deep trouble, but at least we can stop making it worse.
As for Paul Brown’s article, my crystal ball tells me exactly what the Bush administration (and others) will do - they’ll order A Study. Gainful employment for all their friendly “scientists” who persist in telling us that there’s no such thing as global warming.
Thank you, Paul Brown, for telling us the truth.
I think webwalk hit the nail on the head, exactly.
Either we make a concious decision to change, and live with thoughtful consideration of the consequences of our actions, or we will have change forced upon us, and it won’t be pretty.
One useful action for all of us in the U.S.A. is to encourage both our Senators to co-sponsor Senator Ken Salazar’s Harvest Energy Act of 2007, now before the Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee. In essense, it supports the production and application of biochar (agrichar) which is not only a supurb soil conditioner but permanently sequesters some carbon in the soil.
See
http://biopact.com/2007/10/towards-carbon-negative-bioenergy-us.html
for details and a link to the Act.
Thank you.
Some individual actions to take:
1) Buy a washtub, scrub brush, scrubbing board and clothesline and start doing your clothes by hand. Don’t sell your used washer and dryer…destroy it!
2) Toilet paper uses oodles of energy in manufacturing and transporting it to market. Go back to the pre-industrial method of cleaning yourself after deficating. By the way, what was the pre-industrial method?
3) Unplug this darned computer. It is sucking up more energy than your mother’s hair dryer!
Grandma
Clarification of concept “too late”.
The idea here is that it is already too late to do anything to save any part of our beautiful planet.
The idea is that global warming is so advanced that no matter what you do now it would have no effect.
This is a rather extreame position and many people do not agree with it.
I agree that it’s too late; too late to save islands and costal cities. But someone still needs to address the 2000 pound Elephant sitting in the room. He’s not going to understand your little idea of not shatting in your own nest, of not living in WAISTE HIGH NEOCON ELEPHANT SHAT, and one of us is going to have to come up with a plan to gingerly lead him out of the living room.
Got any ideas?
I don’t think peanuts are going to work. This one drinks oil.
People who are seriously concerned about the survival of the planet may want to start now to make changes in their lifestyle–in the interests of their own survival.
If you can’t afford solar panels (I can’t), you may be able to begin growing some of your own food. If you are a city apartment dweller, you may want to make long-range plans to reposition yourself, so that you CAN grow food–and maybe even heat with wood and collect rainwater for household needs.
I’m really afraid that, not to many years hence, people who haven’t taken definite steps along these lines may find themselves hungry and without heating fuel–or even water supplies.
I think it’s really imperative that people begin to think along these lines. Start growing food now, if you can do so. It might be a good idea to start a food-gardening club, to teach and encourage others to grow their own food.
If you can afford it, it might be wise to own an inexpensive country retreat, even if you could put nothing on it but a trailer–or even a camper-trailer. Then plant some fruit trees and make a start at a garden, so that you begin to learn the necessary skills. Other projects will suggest themselves.
I say this because I’m really afraid that it will not be too many years before food and heating fuel become unaffordable. If you can take baby-steps now, it’s better than being blindsided and finding that you have no resources at all.
While it’s not a bad idea to do whatever you can for the environment, I feel we will soon be completely redesigning our lifestles out of necessity.
One interpretation of the phrase “too late” here is the manner in which the term is employed by some of the most eminent authorities, such as James Hansen of NASA GISS. Hansen has been warning lately of an impending “albedo flip”, meaning that the largest so-called “positive feedback” (very negative, however, for our future) - the heat-absorbing dark sea succeeding the reflective white ice - will become irreversibly committed. It turns out that the earth’s physiology is not nearly so stable as everyone assumed even in March of this year (when the ridiculously over-cautious IPPC report was published). At some point feedback-loops such as water-vs-ice albedo will continue to provide their own momentum, no matter what we do. At that point, it’s much “too late” for anyone to predict where this will lead, or to reliably calculate our own chances of survival. All bets are off, the window is closed.
It goes without saying that, should we find ourselves faced with certain catastrophe, there are much better approaches available than to throw up our hands and party to our demise, hastening and worsening the catastrophe with our foolishness, as we currently are.
We are already past the time for just preventative measures (ending all manmade greenhouse gas emissions). We must find and implement measures that will cool the Earth not just keep it from getting warmer. The natural rate at which greenhouse gasses leave the atmosphere is too slow to counterbalance the rate at which greenhouse gasses are emitted by thawing tundra given the Earth’s current temperature, the amount of greenhouse gasses stored in the Earth’s frozen tundra, and the new ratio of open water to frozen water. If we don’t act to actually cool the Earth, Earth will become the real twin of Venus.
I found a new book at our public library, “With Speed and Violence”. It describes two types of climate change. The first is slow. The second is sudden and catastrophic.
The book includes a section on Greenland similar to the one in the article. The Greenland ice sheet is not going to slowly drip itself to death (ala type one climate change). It is going to move suddenly.
I wish I could have solar or geothermal power and vegetable gardens. Some of us are too old and too poor to be able to do this. I recycle, conserve, set the thermostat lower than it used to be, and wait for the end.
as i have shouted before;it is the neo-cons and their agendas that are causing global warming..they want the ice to melt so that they can have a shorter route for shipping cargo..they want to be able to rape the resources,more easily.they have been conducting numerous ’secret’experiments in the arctic and also tests of new weaponry..and the avatar,algore,knows what is really going on.no human has become richer from globalwarming than algore.the neo-cons would have people believe it is the ‘people’causing the meltdowns…but it is radiation and electromagnetic waves and interference,the secret manipulations and agendas that are behind 90% of yet another major catastrophe and tragedy caused by greed….
Green Party. Now more than ever.
whitewatersally
Let’s not fool ourselves. We, especially in the United States, have all been causing global warming simply by living our normal, American lives. And this has been going on for more than a hundred years, long before the “neo-cons” and their agenda took center stage.
Today, each and every human life contributes to the problem, from the soccer-mom in her SUV to the rainforest farmer, trying to scratch out an existence. Global warming is an equal opportunity employer. “the neo-cons would have people believe it is the ‘people’causing the meltdowns…” but whitewatersally knows better and her conscience is clear as the melting ice.
Are we able as a species to accept our environment the way it is and live within its true boundaries?
Personally, this focus on “prevention” is a waste of time.
Lets deal with the reality of climate change.
The glaciers have been melting for thousands of years.
Who ever claimed the rate would always be constant is a fool.
If it was not greenhouse gases, it would have been some other natural phenomena that would have opened our eyes to the FACT that the world we live in is not static.
Geologists need to give up this stupid Principle of Uniformitarianism.
The fact is the world can and does go through catastrophic changes on a global level.
Lets all accept this and learn to live on the earth as it really is.
Or are we just like all the other extinct species who were so perfectly tuned to a particular environment that a slight change wiped them out?
The first thing that has to go is all this fear people have.
I used to believe the Neocon bull about “it’s all part of a natural cycle; don’t worry about it; fill up the SUV tank”
But clearly we’ve already passed all the tipping points. 455 ppm carbon is the 2005 Australian reading. Google Earth reveals millions of blue lakes over Antarctica that have never been seen before. See for yourself. Click here, then click on the Green download button to install.
http://earth.google.com/
This is not a natural cycle. It is a runaway “Three Mile Island” situation and we are figuratively minutes from meltdown. What has brought us to this critical mass threshold, is this detached defeatist attitude that intervention is a waste of time. The crisis is not one-thousand, or even one-hundred years away as we were lead to believe by MSM. It is a few years off.
From my personal research, I think we are spinning out of control from high altitude with all engines out and the G-forces building up exponentially. It is too late to think about saving the airplane at this point; we should have tried recovery efforts a long time ago, but did nothing. Now it’s so close to breakup all we can do is either bail out of this doomed economy or ride it into the dirt. Clearly tech2 is suicidal and wants to go out with a bang. All I’m saying is that I believe it should be put to democratic vote. Decisions this important should not be left to some uneducated “decider.”
Now we can not avoid the meltdown. But soaring temperatures in the 150 degree range (which are unsurvivable) can be combatted by a cold turkey approach of outlawing the internal combustion engine completely (all vehicle, power and burning of anything) coupled with mass mandatory human sterilization.
Nothing else less radical has a realistic chance of success. Heat Sink physics say that the current world temp is a result of emmissions puked out 30-50 years ago. Even the most drastic steps will still see a number of years of increased atmospheric temp. Obviously Neocons are going to prefer world war to reading by candlelight. But their numbers are dwindling, and will continue to dwindle as coastal cities start going underwater.
ezeflyer is right.
Mass defection to Green Party is what’s gotta happen.
pacplyer
pacplyer
“It is too late to think about saving the airplane at this point; we should have tried recovery efforts a long time ago, but did nothing. Now it’s so close to breakup all we can do is either bail out of this doomed economy or ride it into the dirt.”
If you would reread what I actually wrote you would understand that I was saying exactly what you say here.
Only I am adding to that saying - whether the current crisis is man-made or not is immaterial - it would have happened sooner or later with natural causes.
Catastrophic climate change is a fact of life on this earth, preventative measures are a waste of time.
We have to learn to live in a world where the environment can change dramatically and on a global scale.
I find it weakminded of you to think we cannot do it.
tech2,
Maybe I did not understand your position. It appears to be defeatist in that catastrophism is inevitable so why try to regulate the atmosphere? Just ride it out? Is that what you are saying? These are not inevitable geophysical changes of eons we are talking about here, these are decade wide carbon emission excesses in the short term, that, if not addressed, will turn us into Venus within a few generations. That kind of catastrophe is not natural, not inevitable, imho.
tech2 said: “Only I am adding to that saying - whether the current crisis is man-made or not is immaterial - it would have happened sooner or later with natural causes.
Catastrophic climate change is a fact of life on this earth, preventative measures are a waste of time.
We have to learn to live in a world where the environment can change dramatically and on a global scale.
I find it weakminded of you to think we cannot do it.”
pac says: I think we agree that the currently discussed preventative measures are a waste of time. 70million new babies arrive each year cutting down rain forest and lighting up cooking fires. That’s why I propose extreme measures as a last ditch effort to make this planet livable in the 2050 era. But what are you tech2, some kind of Darwinian Survivalist? You sound just like a Wall Street capitalist who isn’t interested in a real solution. Can you be more specific? What exactly is it you propose we should do? Wear space suits and live under the ocean? Or do nothing to curb the population’s emissions? Is that what your saying? Our common ground here is that the band aids being submitted by most will not do the trick. I submit, not that we can’t do it as a species (because natural selection will take care of that!) ; but rather that the globe can’t do it at this standard of living: consumerism, driving cars, making babies next to Brazilian and Indonesian rain forests (the lungs of the carbon cycle) because these activities, if not abandoned all together, at once, will not impede the exponential rise in greenhouse gas buildup that’s quickly making the atmosphere unlivable for mammals.
I think we cannot avoid 150 degree temp readings and ozone depletion this century with unchecked population, that is my “weakminded” position. (Mojave desert already sees annual 120 degree temps)
I wish I was wrong. If you can detail the more preferable path to curbing this runaway, please do it, and provide specific details.
Enoyed the banter,
pac
Specific details PAC!
What is the use of dreaming??
I will give it a try, but first, I think we have a lot more time to set things right, about 100 years or more, (unless Jesus shows up first)
Transportation, Habitat, manufacturing methods, agricultural practices, recreation are the key areas off the top of my head. As an industry professional, I can say with confidence that all alternative energy, and other technical solutions have long since been available.
-burn all building codes and redesign cities and rural communities a la Bucky Fuller non-solar/wind/geothermal Energy consumption for habitat will drop to near zero
-outlaw built-in obsolescence and “Fashion” in all products, including cars, clothes, etc… make equipment that lasts many generations. OR if the design is not perfected - make sure everything is made 100% recycable during the initial successive design models until the product is perfected for final usage.
-through good mechanical /system design, empower the human body/animal power and intelligence to do most jobs efficently and enjoyably with minimal additional energy input (electrical/chemical etc….) The human body,animals and plants are the perfect machines for converting low grade energy to higher forms, we cannot do better. Lets use them in a modern way.
-drop the “pace” of all communities throughout the world to about the current pace of rural India.
-encourage a move to rural communities in developed countries. (cities are still important though)
-for cities revamp transportation, eliminating most cars, and for rural areas have co-op movement of necessary materials. Mass transit for urban to “rural hub” movement, then personal transport for only the last leg (perhaps co-op or pooled, shared access)
-now that there is efficient captial equipment throught society that is freely available to all people, and now that one part-time job per household is all that is available, make sure the economic system allows an entire family to survive comfortably, we can all start to rethink what life is really about.
-break the NY and LA control of mass media and allow people to freely organize and pool their labour resources and ideas al a Jimmy Carter centre.
-outlaw all entertainment that uses massive amounts of energy.
etc.. etc…. Of course this is just off the top of my head, if I thought about it for a few hours I could come up with a better list.
Most importantly love one another, treat one another with respect, act humbly, work hard, and “let’s all just try and get along…”
FIRST PROBLEM: sounds too much like socialism and a threat to private property.