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crude oil
‘Epic Insider Trading’: Nearly $1 Billion in Crude Oil Shorts Taken Just Before Report of US-Iran Peace Deal
"Only a select few in the top tax bracket are benefiting from this, and the majority of you ain’t in it," said former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene.
May 06, 2026
Observers are once again raising concerns about insider trading on Wednesday after a trader took a colossal crude oil short position just over an hour before a US-Iran peace deal was reported to be on the horizon, causing prices to fall.
The Kobeissi Letter, a financial newsletter, reported on X that at 3:40 am on Wednesday, "nearly 10,000 contracts worth of crude oil shorts were taken without any major news."
This was equivalent to $920 million in notional value, which the letter described as "an unusually large trade" so early in the morning. But it would soon pay off.
At 4:50 am, just 70 minutes later, Axios published an exclusive scoop by Middle East reporter Barak Ravid that the White House believed the US and Iran were on the verge of agreeing to a one-page "memorandum of understanding" to end the war, which included more nuclear negotiations, one of the key sticking points for US President Donald Trump.
By 7:00 am, just over two hours after Axios dropped its report, oil prices had fallen by 12%, allowing the savvy investor to make $125 million in a matter of hours, which led to accusations that it was yet another example of "epic insider trading" by those in the know about Trump's plans.
Prices have since rebounded by about 8% after Iran announced the creation of the new "Persian Gulf Strait Authority," to mediate the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz on its terms.
The Trump administration has already been deluged with accusations that its members are using insider information to take advantage of financial markets and prediction market apps.
Last month, an active-duty US special forces soldier was indicted by the Department of Justice after he made about $400,000 betting on Polymarket that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be removed from power, a bet he allegedly placed using classified information about an operation he himself was involved with.
More bettors collected around $1 million in profits from bets on the specific timing of Trump's war with Iran in late February. The Financial Times also reported a surge of more than $580 million in oil futures trading right before Trump announced a pause in strikes on Iran's energy facilities in March.
Of course, Wednesday's bet theoretically could have been made without the aid of insider information.
The new peace framework is the latest in what has seemed to be an endless pattern over the past several weeks in which US officials tell media outlets that a peace agreement is on the horizon, causing oil prices to dip, only for it to collapse later in the week, often with Trump issuing hostile threats or making new demands.
It has become such a familiar story that some have speculated that the announcement of productive ceasefire talks is deliberately choreographed to calm oil markets and bring down prices, which have become a growing problem for Trump among voters.
But as The Economic Times explained, the bet placed Wednesday morning likely "is not a routine hedge" or "a portfolio rebalancing move."
"At that hour, in that size," it said, "a crude oil short of that magnitude is a deliberate, high-conviction directional bet."
Former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), a one-time Trump cheerleader who's become one of his leading critics, suggested Trump's erratic approach to negotiating an end to the war was just a tool used by him and his allies to profit.
"When is everyone going to start realizing that the on-again, off-again war/peace rhetoric is really just insider trading? And sprinkle in some murder," Greene wrote on social media. "Only a select few in the top tax bracket are benefiting from this, and the majority of you ain’t in it."
Democrats in Congress have urged the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to investigate what Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) suggested could be "mind-blowing corruption" by the White House, not only related to Trump's wars, but also to his tariff regime, which has caused similar market chaos that bettors have been able to capitalize on with fortuitously timed wagers.
But critics have described profiting from the machinations of a war that has killed more than 1,700 civilians as particularly grotesque.
"This has to stop," said Fox News commentator Jessica Tarlov. "Lives on the line so they can insider trade!"
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'Catastrophic': Biden Admin Approves Largest Offshore Oil Export Terminal
"Nothing about this project is in alignment with Biden's climate and environmental justice goals," said one campaigner.
Apr 15, 2024
Climate action groups are vehemently rejecting the Biden administration's claim that the approval of a new offshore oil terminal—planned to be the largest in the U.S.—is in the "national interest," after the U.S. Department of Transportation announced the project had met several federal requirements and could begin operations by 2027.
The agency's Maritime Administration said last week that Enterprise Product Partners, a Houston-based pipeline company, had been granted a deepwater port license to build the Sea Port Oil Terminal (SPOT) near Freeport, Texas following a five-year federal review process.
The federal government determined the $1.8 billion terminal project had undergone sufficient environmental impact reviews and would overall benefit the country—even as it was projected by the Sierra Club, which has fought SPOT for several years, to emit greenhouse gases equivalent to those of nearly 90 coal-fired power plants.
"The evidence is clear that SPOT would be catastrophic to the climate, wildlife, and frontline communities of the Gulf," said Devorah Ancel, senior attorney with the Sierra Club. "It threatens the future existence of the endangered Rice's whale with a population of less than fifty, and its ozone pollution would compromise the health of thousands of Gulf residents who have endured decades of fossil fuel industry pollution. Make no mistake, SPOT is not in the national interest."
The project is expected to include two pipelines that would carry crude oil to the deepwater port each day, enabling the export of 2 million barrels of crude oil, loaded onto two supertankers at once, daily.
"Nothing about this project is in alignment with Biden's climate and environmental justice goals," said Kelsey Crane, senior policy advocate at Earthworks. "The communities that will be impacted by SPOT have once again been ignored and will be forced to live with the threat of more oil spills, explosions, and pollution. The best way to protect the public and the climate from the harms of oil is to keep it in the ground."
Allie Rosenbluth, U.S. manager at Oil Change International, noted that the project has been approved despite the International Energy Agency's clear assessment in 2021 that "all new investments in oil and gas projects must stop if the world is going to reach its climate goals," including limiting planetary heating to 1.5°C.
"The Biden administration's decision to approve the Sea Port Oil Terminal is a grave mistake. This approval will only harm local communities and ecosystems, and lead to even more devastating impacts of the climate crisis," said Rosenbluth. "The U.S. is already the largest producer of oil and gas and has the largest expansion plans globally. Instead of continuing this legacy of harm by approving fossil fuel projects, President Biden should be listening to the science and the masses of his constituents calling for an end to fossil fuels."
The direct action group Climate Defiance expressed doubt that the approval of SPOT will help Biden win over any voters as the 2024 election approaches.
Nine in 10 Democratic voters and Democratic-leaning independents told Pew Research Center last year that they believe the U.S. should prioritize developing renewable energy sources—and two-thirds of Republican voters under age 30 agreed.
"This project would be the single-largest oil export terminal in the U.S." said the group. "We are being boiled alive here, literally burned to death by 'moderate' politicians who see fit to torch us in the name of quarterly profits. How can we live like this? How can this go on?"
Last year was the hottest on record, and the first three months of 2024 have each broken records for high global temperatures. Scientists found last year that climate disasters including wildfires in Canada and extreme heat in Europe were made far more likely by fossil-fueled planetary heating.
Local organizers in Texas condemned the Biden administration's decision to ignore campaigners who have warned of the danger SPOT poses to marine habitats as well as people who live in the area where two crude oil pipelines have now been given final approval to run.
"We continue to struggle to see why Biden and [Transportation Secretary Pete] Buttigieg prefer to protect the corporate profits of billion-dollar oil giants like Enbridge and Enterprise over the hardcore objections of the people who would have to live with the consequences of pipelines criss-crossing our beaches," said Trevor Carroll, Brazoria County lead organizer with Texas Campaign for the Environment. "If you care about environmental justice and the climate, you just can't support a monstrosity like SPOT. The local community and the global climate justice movement are continuing to fight... This is not over."
Melanie Oldham, director of Better Brazoria, said SPOT will be "an oil spill waiting to happen that would not only lower property value, but harm our local ecosystems, ecotourism, beaches, recreation, and kill marine life like the endangered Rice's whale and Kemp's Ridley sea turtles."
"Those of us residents, beachgoers, and voters that have for the past four years opposed the SPOT offshore terminal and pipelines are very disappointed with the approval of the project license," said Oldham. "President Biden has again broken promises to protect frontline communities in Surfside and Freeport."
The administration's approval came three months after the White House announced it was delaying consideration of new gas export terminals, and the same day the federal government said fossil fuel companies will have to pay higher royalties in order to drill on federal lands.
But those climate actions paired with the SPOT approval amount only to "flip flopping," said Climate Defiance.
"It is not enough that the administration stopped new gas exports if they are going to back stab us with this death-sentence decision now," said the group. "This is not us being 'ungrateful.' This is the science. The pure, unvarnished, science."
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Global Protests Target Chinese Financing of East African Crude Oil Pipeline
"The controversial EACOP project threatens pristine ecosystems, biodiversity hotspots, water resources, and community lands," said campaigners.
Nov 20, 2023
Campaigners assembled on Monday in four African countries and in Europe, rallying outside the headquarters of several Chinese financial institutions and embassies with one demand of Chinese officials: Withhold financing for the East African Crude Oil Pipeline.
The global campaign #StopEACOP has already helped push banks and insurers in North America, Europe, and Japan to refrain from getting involved in the project, which is being spearheaded by French multinational TotalEnergies and China National Offshore Oil Corporation.
Now, the state-owned China Export & Credit Insurance Corporation (SINOSURE), the Export-Import Bank of China (China Exim), and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) are reportedly considering financially supporting the pipeline, which could lead to 379 million tons of fossil fuel emissions even as climate and energy experts warn there is no place for new gas and oil extraction on a pathway to limiting planetary heating to 1.5°C.
"Today, people stood united across borders to say this dangerous pipeline project must be stopped," said Zaki Mamdoo, #StopEACOP coordinator. "We urge SINOSURE, China Exim Bank, and the ICBC to listen to local communities and respect their rights, aspirations, and agency. By refusing to provide insurance or financing for EACOP, these entities must prove that they are not simply interested in profiting at the expense of Africa's well-being."
Organizers rallied at Chinese embassies in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; Kampala, Uganda; Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC); and Tshwane, South Africa. In London, United Kingdom, climate campaigners held a solidarity action outside the offices of SINOSURE and in Paris, France they rallied at the offices of the China Exim Bank and the ICBC.
The planned pipeline would run from Hoima, Uganda to Tanga, Tanzania, transporting oil from two oil fields and potentially connecting to oil blocks in the DRC.
"The controversial EACOP project threatens pristine ecosystems, biodiversity hotspots, water resources, and community lands," said #StopEACOP, as well as "contradicting global climate goals."
Campaigners had planned to deliver petitions opposing the 896-mile pipeline, as well as documents containing analysis of the socioeconomic and climate impacts of the project. According to #StopEACOP, the pipeline would run through the basin of Lake Victoria, which more than 40 million people depend on for food and water; displace landowners who say they have already faced threats and intimidation; and run through the habitats of endangered animals including lions, giraffes, roan antelopes, and sables.
#StopEACOP reported that officials at the embassies refused to receive the documents.
Organizers also denounced authorities for arresting seven advocates in Kampala.
"Every time activists and communities stand up to peacefully oppose EACOP in Uganda, they are brutalized and arbitrarily arrested," said Brian Atuheire, executive director of the African Initiative on Food Security and Environment (AIFE). "Today, seven young activists have been detained for peacefully protesting outside the Chinese Embassy in Kampala. Despite the repression, we remain resolute and have drawn strength and courage from the incredible show of solidarity from comrades worldwide."
Richard Senkondo, executive director for the Organization for Community Engagement, said any institution supporting EACOP "is perpetrating injustice."
"This pipeline will destroy our land and water—our very way of life," said Senkondo. "It poses a grave threat to the environment and the well-being and rights of our communities."
"We are united with allies around the world in our continued resistance against this harmful project," Senkondo added. "Instead of supporting such projects, we urge these Chinese institutions to be a true ally to the African continent by favoring the development of people-centered renewable energy to power Africa's future."
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