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Extreme Weather Events Unprecedented, Scientists Say
WASHINGTON — Tornadoes, floods, wildfires, snowmelt, thunderstorms, drought — for Americans, it was a spring to remember.
A tornado makes its way across Baca county, Colorado, in May 2010. (Photograph: Willoughby Owen/Getty Images/Flickr) Government weather researchers said yesterday that, while similar extremes have occurred throughout modern American history, never before have they occurred in a single month, as they did in April.
The last time anything remotely like it happened was the spring of 1927, which also had many tornadoes and flooding, said Harold Brooks of the Storm Prediction Center in Oklahoma.
The tornado outbreak, floods, and drought during April were comparable to extreme events in the past, but never so close together in recorded history, agreed Deke Arndt, chief of the climate monitoring branch at the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.
The preliminary tornado count was 875 for April, and even after duplicates are eliminated the final total for May is expected to approach the single-month record of 542 set in 2003, Tom Karl, director of the climatic data center, said at a briefing.
The tornado death toll for the year is 536 so far, Brooks said, making 2011 the sixth-deadliest year on record. That may still rise, he added, though most annual tornado deaths occur by mid-June.
The researchers explained that April brought an active weather pattern across the 48 contiguous United States, with strong storms moving through the center of the country, tapping into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as they matured across the mid-Mississippi Valley.
Contributing to the thrashing were the La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean, unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, and the increase of moisture in the atmosphere caused by the warming climate.
While Karl cautioned against focusing on any single cause for the unusual events, “clearly these things interconnect,’’ he said.
Nonetheless, April lived up to poet T. S. Eliot’s description as the cruelest month, and March and May contributed to the battering.
The tally included:
■ Heavy snowmelt in the upper Midwest combined with record rains in the Ohio River Valley produced floods along the lower Mississippi River equaling or surpassing the historic floods of 1927 and 1937.
■ Ideal wildfire conditions developed across the southern plains as rainfall encouraged rapid plant growth, followed by drought and hot weather to launch still-burning fires.
33 Comments so far
Show AllWrong again, the climate change during the onset of the so-called "Maunder Minimum" was pretty extreme and scary as well.
So you were there? Please, give us a first hand account.
Google you lazy bum.
That's not an answer. That's a copout. Talk about lazy.
whats the point
None.
the climate change that is happening everywhere today is very scary to think that it is only the beginning.
It's not exactly the beginning - only the /readily observable/ beginning.
A tornado in an old-growth forest is a very different affair from a tornado in Joplin or Tuscaloosa. The forest "knows" how to recover: it hasn't hit the limits to growth.
I hope you aren't thinking of waiting till everything has "hit the limits"? I think we're almost there.
Seems theres a choice to either get scared or get focused.
I feel compelled to introduce another dot to connect in the getting focused realm. HOW we choose to define/describe what is happening contributes or detracts from our capacity to envision, meet and build our future.
In this regard the question of over-population concerns me. It is invariably plopped down without any demographic or causal consideration. The recent history of upswing makes a neat graph, but gives accountability of transnational corporate influence a teflon coating.
What percentage of the dynamic is due to the ongoing usurpation/land grabbing resource grabbing that renders entire populations perceiving their future as futile? Does this contribute to a perception that one might as well create as many hands as possible to try to meet the needs of survival?
Can't have land, that has to be in the hands of development corporations. Can't have water that has to be in the hands of development/management corporations. Can't have seeds, those need to be in the hands of development /GM green revolution corporations. Cant have food that needs to be shaped for import/export for profit. The only thing green about the green revolution has been the almighty dollar - now nearly defuncted - new word, not just past tense, but intentionally so.
Hands and minds, engineering talent, political talent, artistic cultural worker talent and just plain ordinary acts of personal conscience are needed to reverse climate change. Overpopulation plays a role but mostly the problem is greedheads burning more fuel than thousands of ordinary people use. For example, the seriously rich have new all-directions spray showers that use up 28 gallons of hot water per minute. They practically require a sewer grate on the shower floor. I suppose that the warm massage feels great.
If we (and this had better include people with dollar power) were all interested in putting the genie back into the bottle then we would. We have the engineering talent to progressively crush wind/solar prices for practically every big-ticket industrial/transit/heating process, and we will grow algae in sealed bioreactors in the desert, and with the government's encouragement we will sequester lignite mountains of algae cell husks (cellulose) in the desert for an average of 2500 years, about as long as the pyramids have stood. In a sense, King Tut was the world's first carbon sequestration project.
Our environmental problem is mostly political. President Obama is in love with BP and the nuclear industry, and the Republican politicos are lining up like cult members to deny the science behind climate change. It's no better in many other nations. We have an antienvironment-industrial complex that sees gold in pollution. We also have a relatively small wind-solar industry that wants their cut and a few fairly progressive corporations, so industry isn't completely monolithic.
I wrote because you prefer getting focused.
We need specialists to at least plan ahead for a better Congress in 2012 (despite the vast corporate spending that our bought court has legalized). It's not easy to keep up hope for a U.S. spring but that's what some of us should do. We need many forums to get things just right ahead of time, and we need to strictly exclude the oil industry's low-paid boiler-room bloggers who are paid to disrupt.
Excellent Paul,
Just what we need to be doing...
PaulK: we can start working on it now. In this election what questions are we going to make our candidates live up to? Are we going to just take the off-the-cuff (although well rehearsed) platitudes they persist in spewing? No! We are going to have very defined questions to shoot at them. Initial questions can be used as a form of elimination; 1. If they don't "believe" in climate change - OUT; 2. If they voted for the Iraq war - OUT. There are more but you get my drift. Then we ask specific questions of the ones left standing. Questions covering: 1. What is their "business plan" to recover the economy, the time line for reaching it, the benchmarks along the way and 2. Would they sign a contract forfeiting their pension (and whatever else is deemed appropriate) if their plan isn't met before the end of their first term? All must be produced in writing and on a website (make sure you print a copy just in case). If we had questions like these, then you'd see some reigned-in breast thumping! The website: www.October2011.org had 9 demands but they have been removed from the site. Fortunately I printed a copy because they were perfect! This is a neat outfit running the "occupation" of the Washington Mall starting October 6th. We liberals are easy-going but now we've got to be demanding in a way that is appropriate to the conditions (meaning we've got to "step it up")
Here are a few things to keep in mind when thinking about the relationship between global warming and extreme weather events:
Warmer air holds more water than cooler air. For every 18 degrees F of temperature rise the air's capacity to hold water approximately doubles, so 50% relative humidity at 90 degrees F means there's more than twice as much water in the air as 50% humidity at 70 degrees.
Water holds more heat than air does The oceans have absorbed about 8 times as much of the excess heat we've generated as has the atmosphere. And warmer water also evaporates more quickly than cooler water, other things being equal.
So the bottom line is that even small increases in global temperatures mean there's a lot more water in the atmosphere, which means there's a lot more fuel for tornadoes and other extreme forms of weather.
The effects of global warming on overall wind speeds are not easy to predict, and some scientists have hypothesized that more water in the atmosphere will mean reduced wind speeds. But that hypothesis seems to be contradicted by the increase in extreme weather events, and by the fact that researchers have already measured increased wind speeds over the oceans.
"unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico"
the Gulf is one big oil-filled storage heater now.
There is always the fall back position: It's the will of our heavenly father. What a mean ol man he is. I wonder if they use renewables in heaven. Maybe they duct warm air up from that other place.
1. We just had a category 4 (140 mph) hurricane named Adrian off the coast of Mexico last week. Fortunately it didn't come ashore. However, there never has been a recorded hurricane this strong on June 10 or before. The trend is for hurricanes to come earlier and stronger. BTW, there's now a second tropical storm threatening to form in about the same spot.
2. Today, the extent of the Arctic Ocean's ice pack is about 300,000 square kilometers below the record-setting 2007 track. Ice melt tends to build on itself.
Yes PaulK, and the climate and weather in the Arctic is the driving force for climate and weather all arond the globe. Dramatic climate changes in the Arctic means dramatic climate changes everyplace and "recored setting" are the key words.
It is not just this spring, we cannot forget last summer in Russia, Siberia, Pakastan, Australia and other large areas of Earth. What happend last summer can happen again this summer anyplace on the planet. I hate to think of temperatures 30+ degrees above the average normal high temperatures for near 90 straight days. That is what hapened in Russia.
So if any lives where the normal average high summer temps are in the mid 90s, add 30 degrees to it and pray for very low humidity. .
Very scary indeed. You're right about the arctic. And all the big nations are scrambling for control of all that oil that the melting ice has allowed access to. Pathetic.
We are a species that never sees the edge of the cliff until we are already over it, never learns from our mistakes, and has become very, VERY good at brainwashing ourselves into thinking the worst cannot happen to us.
We learn how to exploit every situation for money. You have enough of that and the rest doesn't matter.
Yea, like photos of the Weimar Republic, where people would bring wheelbarrows full of bank notes to the store for a loaf of bread.
Perhaps there's something wrong with our definition of "enough."
Bad weather just means you're not praying enough.
Or it's god's way of punishing the sinful.
Because a few other people get caught up just means their faith is meant to be tested.
I know all this to be true because it probably said so in the bible somewhere.
The USA is blessed by god. It really is. It's the best country in the world!
And anyway, if people get taken by god because they get drowned, swept up by tornado's, die because of lack of water, drought, or hunger, or anything like that then you can be assured they're sitting by gods side up in heaven so there's no need to worry or do anything. God especially likes children to be brought to him this way.
Don't listen to scientists or the other godless athiests who'll try to tempt you with sinful lies of climate change and human responsibility!
God put us here on earth as dominion over all of it and its creatures. It says so in the bible.
God does miracles. If we pray hard enough then he'll answer.
And if you get hurt just make sure you aren't missing any limbs or organs though because he doesn't ever replace those in miracles, not ever. And that's further proof of his existence.
Remember, the banana was fashioned by god to be perfectly shaped to be held in the hand of man.
If your church gets destroyed by weather then its gods way of testing you and your faith!
Eat a banana, enjoy all the weather and exult in gods work. Hallelujah!
lol. good one, but you forgot the /sarcasm tag, someone might take that post seriously.
I cracked up when someone sent me that link from some Religous group that "Proved" Gods existence with a man peeling a banana.
I mean try that trick with a pineapple or a coconut..There was another that someone sent me that proved that "The Sun went around the earth just like it says in the bible".
The substance of the proof was the stars move across the sky and since the earth could not be orbiting all those stars this could only mean the stars were going round and round the earth just like the sun does. They guy even used "time lapsed photography" of "star trails" to make his proof.
At least there's no denying it anymore. Even Newsweek June 6th had a 6-page spread starting: "Are you ready for more? In a world of climate change, freak storms are the new normal." - and ending: "Not to adapt is to consign millions of people to death and disruption".
And that's the responsibly "don't-panic" description...
We "all" know what SHOULD be done, which is to immediately engage in a collective global "war-time" economic campaign cutting any and all CO2 emissions during a sharp change-over to a stable-state, renewable energy reduced-consumption human-scaled economy with local produce for local markets, and all kinds of markets regulated to serve the needs of the people, with military expenditures being the first to go. Let those war-machines rust and gather dust. Start with the physical needs for food, clothes and shelter for everyone, and eliminate artificial needs created to feed unending growth of consumption. - Get in tune with the collective awareness of seven billion people wanting simple happy lives marvelling at the daily miracle of being alive and being able to share the experiences of living in a growing, changing body. Drop all pettiness. Admit that no strife and no ambition beyond being reasonable healthy and creatively active is important enough to detract from a single moment of feeling part of this fantastic planet, for the brief spell we live here.
It will eventually have to happen, that the common needs of the human tribe aligned with the biosphere take priority, as many of our sustaining resources run out. In the mean time, anything that pulls in that direction, however meagre as a measure, is of the good.
We're too deeply in trouble here on this planet to be paranoid about where the little good things come from. Even should the good things arise from bad intentions, let's simply ensure those bad intentions get sidelined and evaporated along the way - while retaining the good results.
Beggars can't be choosers, it's said. And ecologically we're surely beggars these days.
I really do hope it was an excellent bit of sarcasm, but if OldBeforeHisTime was indeed serious I wan't to apologize to everyone else here for him because I'm a Christian pastor/hospital chaplain and I want to solidly endorse what PaulK was saying above. We need to hear more from people like him. We need to call for ethical responsibility and stewardship of the earth's resources here (and they are key themes in the Bible, OldBefore....) NOT pie-in-the sky theological what-me-worry crap.
Another excellent article to read this week by John Vidal entitled "Warning Extreme Weather Ahead" appeared June 13 in the Guardian (very much worth your time to look it up online.) He provides a more global perspective in contrast to this article focusing on the United States. It utilized the term "Global Weirding" which I think is now appropriate to utilize in conversations with anthropomorphic climate change deniers. -Clair in Canberra
I think we also need to read/interpret those instructions being written in the crop fields. These yantras/mandalas probably hold vital information. They probably are being directed to Mother/Empress GAIA and her minions, on what needs to be done to carry out the necessary Earth transformations for the new age-to-come. These crop circles (not the hoaxers' crude copies) are structures for "patterning" and transmitting energy/signals to those entities charged with the maintenance/upkeep of the Earthly "Realms". Just looking at them will suffice to "download" the info subconsciously. The action will follow later. Vast libraries of these Yantras are available on the internet (which is probably WHY it was created for this time we are in).
It is strange that the US persists in spending trillions of dollars for geopolitical wars in Asia while neglecting real threats at home. Next up is a Richter 9 earthquake in California. Over the past 5 or 6 years there have been mega quakes on all sides of the Pacific Plate, except the west coast of North America. A quake is due, and we are totally unprepared. Or rather, we are prepared for war on Iran, for missiles fired from Russia, for naval conflict with China, for drone and commando attacks on Pakistan, but not for what really threatens us. If American loses anymore cities (eg, Detroit, New Orleans), it will be weather or economics or earthquakes. It will not be Russians, Chinese or Muslims that do that.
you are correct all the way serious. that is it in a nutshell. we have corporate dems and repugs pushing more war meanwhile they have their thumbs up their asses when it comes to serious threats at home like economics and weather.
this shit media in 'merka is also part of the problem with its endless covering of bullshit scandals and nonsense. support the green party and start pushing for real change in the US.
matt loughran
harris county green party
You are correct SeriousCitizen.
And there has been a mag 9 quake and a 100 foot high tsunami there in 1700. I do believe we have some nuclear power plants along that coastline.
once again the IPCC is proven to be .... well over conservative:
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,15164746,00.html
Arctic melts faster than IPCC's forecasts
---------------------------------------------------------------
When the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report was published in 2007, there was a lack of data on the Arctic, so the panel left a big source of potential sea-level-rise out of its projections for this century.
It estimated a conservative rise of about 18 to 59 centimeters. Many scientists have suspected that the IPCC's projections underestimate the pace of change and the latest research appears to back them up.
Unprecedented Arctic ice melt
New findings by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), a working group of the Arctic Council, reveal unprecedented rates of change in the Arctic Ocean, the mass of the Greenland ice sheet and the region's ice caps and glaciers over the past ten years.
The research confirms that warming in the Arctic has been occurring at twice the global average warming trend since 1980.
Surface air temperatures in the Arctic since 2005 have been higher than for any five-year period since measurements began around 1880, and summer temperatures in the region have been higher in the past few decades than at any time in the past 2,000 years
Someone mentioned the higher wind speeds nad I have noticed this to be true where I live. Hmmm, gee, suppose we could put up some windmachines to cut the need for nuclear or coal? Or is that too common sensical?