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TechnoratiSYDNEY -- Greenhouse gas emissions are rising faster than worst-case predictions by the United Nations' top climate change body, said a new Australian report issued Thursday.
The report by the independent Climate Institute found emissions were rising faster than forecast by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), with possibly devastating effects.
"Greenhouse emissions are rising faster than the worst-case IPCC scenarios," it said.
The UN body may be "underestimating the risks of adverse impacts due to increased warming during this century," it said, meaning events previously considered relatively unlikely were now more likely.
A recent assessment by the IPCC used material published up to mid-2006, it said, but many important new observations had been published since.
These included the fact that decreases in ice cover in the Arctic Ocean were taking place 30 years earlier than predicted by scientific models, it said, with a new summer minimum for Arctic sea ice set in 2007.
At this rate an ice-free Arctic Ocean could exist earlier than dates previously forecast by the models, which see it as a possibility some time between 2050 and 2100, it said.
It warned that sea level rises could reach up to 1.4 meters by the end of the century, much higher than forecast by the UN.
The ability of the land and oceans to absorb carbon dioxide was declining, and although the UN had anticipated this, the observed changes were faster than predicted, the report said.
"This paper suggests that there exists evidence that the IPCC process may have led to an underestimation of the risk of greater warming and that the impacts of climate change are occurring more rapidly than previously projected," the report added.
The report was prepared by Graeme Pearman, the former head of atmospheric research at Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Research Organization (CSIRO).
Copyright © 2007 Agence France Presse
10 Comments so far
Show AllI know, it's a bitch isn't it.
ACtually there are many other scenarios rather than a meteor crashing into earth that will wipe us out, most of them we don't have a clue about, life is fragile and humans have performed just like every other parasite and consumed it's environment and polluted it's living area. Great, but then we were never much more than animals anyway. The experiment in opposable thumbs is over, it failed, enjoy the new lifestyle coming to a planet near you. Think 2012 and you might get an idea how fast it will go. Seems right on schedule to me.
Perhaps even this new study is too optimistic. The process of global warming is gaining momentum, and the science can't keep up with the steepening trend line.
KEM PATRICK--yes, we're all going to die--you too, I might add. Some of our deaths may be hastened by global warming, especially those of us living in droughty or coastal areas. But I suppose most of us will die of something else, like old age or gunshots. I think life is going to get tougher all over, but it will go on. Only that errant, five-mile-wide meteor crashing into us will surely wipe us out.
There is a site here from the University of Arizona that gives several views of the US and other regions of the world with land lost from sea level rises of 1,2,3,4,5,and 6 meters.
http://www.geo.arizona.edu/dgesl/research/other/climate_change_and_sea_l...
You are all gonna die.
There is no doubt that things are going to get alot worse.
Ultimately the earth will solve the problem, make the necessary corrections, which, unfortunately for humans, means eliminating our species. The hope is that some of us will survive, and, having learned the appropriate lessons, will learn to live sustainably, cooperatively, in the knowledge that we are part of the natural order. The gift of life comes with responsibility.
See. The warming deniers are right! The models are in error. They are predicting LESS CO2 and effects than are actually happening. Therefore the global warming theorists are wrong, and global warming isn't happening! Take that evil Dr. Hansen trying to conquer the world with the evil liberal concept known as scientific method.
Remember the deniers saying that hot year 1998 was caused by the solar cycle, and in 5-6 years when at the minimum again global warming would be a joke? Guess what? We are at the minimum, and we are still setting temp records everywhere. As 2+2 still = 4, add 15 ppm more CO2 between now and the next solar maximum around 2010, and its going to be really effing hot. If that doesn't get our attention as a global civilization, nothing will.
It probably won't change our behavior, and things are going to be really bad.
"At this rate an ice-free Arctic Ocean could exist earlier than dates previously forecast by the models, which see it as a possibility some time between 2050 and 2100, it said."
I suggest you use google earth to take a look at the arctic ocean. Tell me what you see.
As soon as the planet has warmed enough to release the methane stored in Asian and Canadian tundra it will be "all she wrote". If something isn't done NOW it will be way too late, and probably already is. We'll be more worried about breathing a poisoned atmosphere than we will about oceans rising, although atmospheric methane will accelerate warming and increase the rise of the oceans.
Have a nice day, now. And, please do put a couple hundred more miles on your CO2 spewing automobile.
Its all goin to be over sooner than you think.
Scaremongering?
Yes, that's exactly what we are doing; explaining that that humanity may be preparing for it's own annihilation is going to tend to cause people to be "scared".
Next question?