Latest Jobs Report Counters Trump’s Claim That He’s Ushering in a “Golden Age,” Says Groundwork’s Jacquez

Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the February jobs report, which showed that the U.S. economy added 151,000 new jobs, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% – falling short of market expectations. Groundwork Collaborative Chief of Policy and Advocacy Alex Jacquez reacted with the following statement:

“Just one month on the job, warning signs are flashing across the Trump economy. Inflation is rising, consumer confidence is plummeting, business investment is pulling back, and now, the labor market is stalling. Instead of focusing on tax breaks for billionaires and giant corporations, Trump should find a way to get the economy back on track for working families before it spirals into recession.”

Email press@groundworkcollaborative.org to speak with a Groundwork expert about today’s jobs report and President Trump’s handling of the economy.

BACKGROUND

Overwhelmingly, the most recent data shows weakness in the labor market.

• Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas found that in February, U.S. employers had the highest number of layoffs since July 2020 – up 245% since January.
• Private sector job growth, as measured by payroll firm ADP, came in short of expectations with only 77,000 jobs added.

Sweeping federal layoffs risk further deterioration in the labor market and a broader economic slowdown.

• More than 80% of federal workers live outside Washington, D.C. Firing them could ignite recessions in local and regional economies as these workers and their families pull back on spending and take on debt to make ends meet.

• University of Kansas professor Donna Ginther said, “In addition, there’s a multiplier effect [to federal layoffs]. Whenever somebody loses their jobs, they get unemployment, which only covers a small portion of their total wages, so they stop consuming in the local economy.”

• Investment firm Apollo Global Management estimates that federal layoffs could reach 1 million workers when accounting for federal contractors, pushing up the unemployment rate, and having negative effects across the economy.

Wall Street analysts, economists, and business leaders are raising concerns about Trump’s economy.

• Wall Street analysts at Moody’s, Comerica, FWDBonds, Raymond James, and Bridgewater are raising concerns about Trump’s economy, and business leaders are expressing dissatisfaction.

• Mark Zandi at Moody’s Analytics recently said, “If confidence continues to fall for another three months, and consumers actually pack it in, then game over.”
• EY Chief Economist Gregory Daco said, “Steep tariff increases against US trading partners could create a stagflationary shock—a negative economic hit combined with an inflationary impulse—while also triggering financial market volatility.”
• Matthew C. Klein, a Wall Street analyst and reporter, recently wrote, “initial data suggest that the strong economy inherited by the new administration is being squeezed on both sides in ways that will worsen living standards for consumers and returns for investors.”

A wide range of economic and sentiment data is flashing red.

• On Monday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta projected that GDP would fall 2.8% in the first quarter.

• In January, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell and the Uncertainty Index rose 14 points to 100 – the third-highest recorded reading.

• In February, consumer sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan survey hit its lowest level since November 2023 – nosediving from January. The drop in consumer sentiment was unanimous across groups by age, income, and wealth.
• Consumer confidence data from the Conference Board posted its sharpest drop since August 2021 – 6.7%.
• Consumers’ inflation expectations rose in February, posting one of the five largest increases in the last decade.