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World Faces Years of Social Unrest as Economies Falter
The international economy is on the brink of a deep new economic crisis that could cost millions of jobs around the globe and trigger mass social unrest, the world's most powerful nations were warned yesterday.
Cars burn during a demonstration, in dowtown Rome on October 15 during an anti-capitalist protest. The eurozone debt crisis could lead to a decade-long recession and rising social unrest, the International Labour Organisation (ILO) has warned, according to a German media report. (AFP Photo/Mario Laporta) As the leaders of the G20 countries prepare for emergency talks on averting a return to worldwide recession, the United Nations' International Labour Organisation (ILO) issued a grim forecast of the social effects of the continuing economic crisis.
The UN agency warned that it could take until 2016 for global employment to return to the levels of three years ago – and that anger could erupt on the streets of Europe and other continents as a result.
The economic gloom was exacerbated yesterday by Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou's surprise announcement that his country would hold a referendum on the European debt deal that was struck last week. The vote could put the tortuously conceived package in jeopardy.
The Greek Finance Minister, Evangelos Venizelos, said the announcement was prompted by popular discontent at the terms of the deal.
If anger at the austerity forced on the country translates into a No vote, European leaders who spent months haggling over the terms of the deal could be forced back to the drawing board and the terms of the deal renegotiated.
George Osborne, the Chancellor, faces having to revise his predictions about British economic growth. Today he is likely to receive further evidence that Britain's recovery is sluggish, with figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) expected to show that economic growth in the UK remained modest in the third quarter of 2011. The Chancellor's hopes of economic growth close to 2 per cent over the year now look highly unlikely to be fulfilled – and could be barely half that.
Yet David Cameron, who announced a fresh drive to create jobs through major infrastructure projects yesterday, will stress at the G20 gathering in Cannes that countries have to press ahead with deficit reduction plans.
The ILO said the risk of social unrest is rising in 40 per cent of the countries it examined.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development also slashed its growth forecasts for many of the biggest economies and warned the G20 leaders: "Without decisive action the outlook is gloomy." It warned parts of Europe are likely to fall back into recession in 2012 and that if the eurozone sovereign debt crisis takes a turn for the worse, total output in some advanced economies could contract by up to 5 per cent by 2013.
Britain's economic woes are likely to be underlined today when the latest ONS growth figures, covering July to September, are released. Gross domestic product is expected to have edged up by about 0.4 per cent, a slight improvement on the previous quarter's 0.1 per cent.
Economists last month projected 0.9 per cent growth over 2011 and 1.3 per cent over 2012. In March, the Office for Budget Responsibility estimated growth of 1.7 per cent in 2011 and 2.5 per cent in 2012. The growth shortfall is likely to mean that the UK deficit will not be reduced on the timescale set out by the Chancellor in his emergency Budget in June 2010.
Mr Cameron yesterday approved the construction of power plants at Ferrybridge, West Yorkshire, and Thorpe Marsh, South Yorkshire, creating 1,000 construction jobs.
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37 Comments so far
Show AllWhat evidence substantiates the claim that employment levels in 2016 will return to 2008 levels ?
Through serial bailouts and by enabling too-big-to-fail banks and other corporations to grow ever larger, the US Government has restored the economic order that existed from 1776 until 1929 wherein each decade experienced a bubble that crashed (they called them"panics"). Economists and the banksters themselves have noted that the next crash will likely occur in the 2015-2018 timeframe. The only difference between the pre-1929 order and today is that the US Government gives unlimited baoilouts to banks and other corporations that the rest of us pay for.
"The only difference between the pre-1929 order and today is..."
~♦~actually ray, changes to the living planet now occur at such a rapid pace it's hard to know which way to look. money is just a distraction. vital resources are slip-sliding away. like living in the midst of a crash landing~♦~
Today, for the first time in history, there are 7 billion people on Earth.
This scary milestone for the globe -- falling on Halloween, of all days -- means greater threats to the animals, plants and wildlands we're all working hard to save.
Our planet is in the midst of its sixth mass extinction crisis, with plants and animals going extinct at 100 to 1,000 times the normal rate. And this one's being driven by us -- people.-Center for Biological Diversity
It looks like Europe is now entering the wobble zone of the Long Emergency. It took longer than in the United States. China will likely be next, since its economic growth is largely a function of the consumption largesse of Europe and the United States.
The political process in Europe is also beginning to show signs of paralysis (in the U.S., we know that paralysis is the order of the day in the political arena).
To respond to Ray del Camino: there is of course no evidence substantiating the claim that employment levels in 2016 will return to 2008 levels. This is merely wishful thinking or, worse, propaganda to assuage the rising storm of societal unrest.
They have returned to that level in Canada and I think most resource exporting Countries are faring better. The issue with this of course is a Countries "resources" are finite and a country that exports them to be consumed in another place is simply living on borrowed time.
The fact remains they try and preserve a system (Capitalism) that is modeled on growth and consumption which simply can not be sustained. Seizing the resources of another nation by using ones military is not a solution as the Military is prohibitively expensive and those resources too will run out.
Capitalism can not function unless there an inequitable distribution of wealth wherein an Investor Class sits atop a pool of Capital from which they can extract "Profits" and Planet Earth can not sate that thirst for profits even in all of its abundance.
It is a dead end system which is why the Middle Class is now being tossed aside so as to support it.
There will never be a returning to former employment levels or economic prosperity. EVER. The gluttonous capitalistic predatory forces that have been munching on the world for the last decades and escalating their plan to impoverish the 99% through austerity, destroying unions, decimating wages and benefits, and offshoring all decent jobs to 3rd world countries for the cheapest labor possible, is finally seeing the natural end-product of such a short-sighted scheme. None of this can be reversed. We cannot "go back" to the pre-2008 levels of employment and "prosperity" for the 99% - even leaving aside the fact that endless economic growth and ravenous consumerism is not possible. If unemployment does eventually drop to pre-2008 levels, then it will be because the 99% are taking shitty, low-wage jobs that provide no security and no benefits.
We are in a completely new world now, and it is not a good one for the billions that make up the non-Elite. Nor will it ever be. A very nasty, long long road lies ahead of all of us. And yes, that includes you elite Plutocratic shits too: who do you think will wind up being the focus of all that pent-up rage that is building all around the world?
It seems that the Great Vampire Squid has infected the entire world with Disaster Capitalism.
I look at them as cockroaches - and the place(the world) needs a good fogging.
Although as anyone in the big city knows you cannot get ridnof all of them - it's a neverending job- somethng we forgot after WW2.
Then again if FDR had enforced his NO Profiting off the war and had hammered the Butler coup leaders we would have probably been spared the vampire squid Bush Family from entering the upper echelons of US power.
The bush family had been in said echelons for some time, working out who to hit with the fogger.
The answer is easy - crash the zombie banks and then tax or confiscate the personal wealth of the top executives and shareholders of these banks.
They received their high incomes by fraudulently bribing our politicians so any wealth gained from their actions is confiscatable just as houses and cars etc are taken from convicted drug dealers every single day.
Carrying it out is the hard part considering the above named predators control the various governments and militaries.
There's only so much Income and True Wealth - the more these sociopathic CEO's and their controlling powers behind the veil have the less the rest of us 99.9%ers have.
The math is the easy part.
"World Faces Years of Social Unrest as Economies Falter"
Not exactly news, or a journalistic coup. More like an obivious result of poor economic decisions. Amazing that it's used as a grabber
"David Cameron ... will stress at the G20 gathering in Cannes that countries have to press ahead with deficit reduction plans."
Austerity is the program, decided as such more than a year ago at the Toronto G20. The establishment, and all of its political parties, has nothing to offer beyond this. The attempt to blame the crisis on the workers, as seen earlier this year in Wisconsin and other places, has failed or will fail. The establishment has lost the ability to control the narrative. A major part of the planned austerity programs will be massive privatisation of public assets and infrastructure at fire sale prices. Corporate and financial interests are sitting on a huge pool of cash (several trillions) waiting for this.
The rich and the middle class move to the "country" looking for a better life. The inter cities then become slums. Now the process reverses. The new slums will be abandoned McMansions darkened by no power, stripped of plumbing, heat and air conditioning. The poor (unemployed) and homeless will be trucked out to these former luxury sub divisions, and left to their own devices, unable to get back to the city. These enclaves will become hell on earth, preyed upon by the elite, and other criminals. Welcome to the new world of possibilities, as HW Bush called it. Gives a new meaning to the phrase Gated Community.
" confiscate the personal wealth of the top executives and shareholders of these banks"
Then sterilize them, along with all the past and present Presidents who helped the Corporations gain control of the political process.
Special attention for the Bush crime family, sterilize them all.
Then there is obama, who is running all over the country talking about jobs, as he signs 3 new free trade agreements into law that will send more jobs over seas. This fancy talking fool is selling us down the river, just like the bush boys did.
Don't forget Slick Willie Clinton.
And Robert Reich, for whom so many "progressives" have an entirely unfounded fondness.
The crisis is caused by the End of Growth, a topic examined and widely discussed by Post Carbon Institue and blogs like theoildrum.com and theautomaticearth, so it isn't as surprising as this news item's author wants us to believe, nor is there a formula to revive "normalcy." The Greeks are likely to vote as Icelanders did--against the lie-based austerity--and will encourage Spaniards, Portugese, Italians, et al to vote likewise and thus challenge the Bankster Terrorists. The essence of the Crisis is structural and philosophical and will not be solved without wholesale change in both--especially in North America.
Common Dreams enables a true exchange of thought. The posts regarding
Nigel Morris' article are an example. Consider some posts of useful ideas.
* Gloomy prediction of the International Labour Organization -- not until 2016
could employment return to 2008 levels.
* Raydelcamino's idea of a sequence of crashes that may be due to re-express
itself in the 2015-2018 time frame, and of no substantial prospect of sufficient
re-employment of workers by 2016.
* GwNorth's interpretation of our present system (Capitalism) as something
based upon growth and consumption, and of Capitalism as dead end system.
* Finally, mtdon's econometric notion, that there's only a limited amount of
"True Wealth". [I reckon the present amount of True Wealth is not enough to
maintain both Capitalism's "inequitable distribution of wealth", and the general
workforce's necessary income for sustenance.]
Guess what? Something that was already happening pre-2008 came to a
culmination of its happening in 2008. Something was lost in 2008, like the air
going out of a punctured balloon. I think what was lost was not True Wealth,
but "manufactured wealth". We sometimes speak of the "financial industry".
If it is an industry, then what does it make? Well, it makes money -- or, better
said, it manufactures wealth. During the housing bubble the financial industry
had been piling leveraging upon leveraging, all of it erected (ultimately) upon
mortgage-loans granted to human-beings' purchasing homes. [But the homes'
value did not in any way equal the leveraged, "manufactured wealth".] When
the variable repayment rates did, in fact, vary [perhaps they doubled], many of
the homeowners walked away. Then the tower of "manufactured wealth"
collapsed. Perhaps trillions of play money vanished. I wonder, are we seeing
the same happening in Greece? Have the big banks' original loans to Greece
been leveraged, securitized, and resold?
It all seems to me to have been a mad rush by big banks etc. to create money
and then "live large" off the resulting profits ... UNTIL THE CRASH. As one of
the old French King Louies said: "After me the deluge." We've been had.
Like thieves, the upper 1% have lived like kings and have left a big deficit in
[international] accountancy. Presumably, if international commerce is to continue,
some reparations will have to be paid. Who pays? That's a question with big
and perhaps arcane repercussions. Such as: What is the real substance of
money? After all, the Federal Reserve System just "prints" whatever money
is "needed" in the U.S. But, as nearly as I can understand the system, the U.S.
Treasury borrows the Federal Reserves' printed money, and pays (them?)
interest. [Correct me if I'm mistaken here.] Furthermore, the money we pay
in taxes goes toward paying the interest on the federal debt. Doesn't it all
all seem like a carnival "shell" game. Under what "shell" corporation does the
so-called money end up? It's all so complicated (deliberately made so?) that
a normal man can't figure it out. But be sure of one thing: The plan is to make
us, the 99%, pay. WE'RE BEING HAD! GET MAD!
"World Faces Years of Social Unrest as Economies Falter"
Fancy that! - Although it's been obvious to any half-perceptive observer for years, it's now said out loud - even at the G-20 meeting, and reported in the mainstream media.
If only it had said "...as economies and ecology falter", with a connection made between the two human-influenced, overarching living-systems. Economy's a subset of ecology, and that needs full recognition in economy the soonest - and preferably retro-effectively.
With officially over 7 billion people on earth depending on finite resources, quibbling over an outdated economy model based on growth is a madniss of mass-psyhcosis.
The "economy" - as capitalism now is called - can't work well again: it's dependent on eternal growth in a finite world of resources!
What we can do, is shift resources around within the finite limits and see that as "growth"/improvement on various indicators - like "general welfare", peacefulness, health, equality, life-satisfaction, empathy (solidarity/brotherhood), freedom-feeling, and other human- plus harmony of planet-benefitting indices.
What we can NOT do, is "restore" capitalist growth. The air is depleted as storage-place for CO2 - and other pollutants - and earth is depleted as storage-place for humans. Now get used to it. NOW!
Then - after posting - I read through the other posts. - Glad to see we're so agreed on this, folks.
"Another world" is happening. Whether for the better is up to us. We're the ones we're waiting for.
A good idea is to react to all kinds of unfactual nonsense we see and hear every day. - Be a kill-joy in all those "cosy" contexts of humans pretending the future's as bright as in the 1960'ies - or whenever urealistic optimism opposed to known facts reign.
Repy to twototango:
If you really want to consider the injustice, think about the origins and elevation of
corporations in the United States. (I reckon all big banks etc. are corporations.)
Corporations ain't in the constitution, which is supposed to be the final authority
as to what is legal in this country. The founding fathers did not even contemplate
that things like corporations would arise. To them, a man's possessions were his
own, AS A HUMAN BEING. The founders' original intent certainly did not include
any notion of corporations as people, and absolutely did not even admit the
possibility that corporations could possess the rights granted to people in the
Bill of Rights. But [so says the Supreme Court] that's what we have to deal with
today. And we have corporations' running-up huge indebtedness via secretive
and decptive dealing that we human beings will be expected to pay off. The Court
-- over the years -- just "made-up" corporations' powers, and let us become
liable to pay their bills. Look into a little history of the Supreme Court and you'll
see the center of the [governmental] power structure. As to whether there is any possible remediation of our bad situation, I don't know and don't venture to guess.
But I see that any attempted remediation that would leave the presently comprised
Supreme Court unchanged would just be "struck down" as "unconstitutional" as
the justices would see it. And guess what? Short of new constitutional convention
there is no remedy for the power centered in the court.
Time to get out your Keynes textbook from the dusty shelf of history Cameron, or end up with a grim future; possibly even a revolution.
"World Faces Years of Social Unrest as Economies Falter"
Not for the 01%, their wealth is assured and protected. So if you wish a job during this period, be willing to serve and protect the 01%. Don't get too comfortable they can always outsource your job.
So what are we supposed to do? Give up and die? I refuse to believe we're on the edge of doom and gloom. Without hope what else do we have? There has to be a better tomorrow. For too long too many people did not vote or care to be involved This is the result of lack of interest.
Of course people can do all sorts of things just not the way things are structured now. There are plenty of things people can do for themselves, it is just that they haven't done it in a long time. I'm sure some never have. You have to think differently and that is what is happening. There are those that don't want things to change (the 1%) but the other 99% are beginning to see the a new value in a new way. Right now there is an urgency to protect our resources and use them with respect, let them recover, and then go forward cooperatively.
Yes. We all can do the things we need to, but I hear this discussed like it is "OK tomorrow I'll raise food, build shelter, etc.
People need to start now. There is a learning curve. What will grow in YOUR soil. What do you need to know. It is not as simple as plant seed, water and eat well.
It's not called "social unrest" when people quietly starve or do without medical care, when schools become warehouses and opportunities for testing companies, when the elderly are abandoned and infants die of treatable illnesses. But the "unrest" stays locked behind closed doors and the grief and destruction of human life is hidden, is kept private. It is massive unrest within the human body and soul nonetheless.
Thank goodness that what has been happening behind closed doors is now being expressed by people gathering together peacefully in the streets. It is time to take the shame factor out of being poor or unemployed or worried every day about keeping a job and paying for heating, food etc. .
The 99% is moving, and if you want to use scary words like "unrest", be my guest.
Yes, these guys at the UK/Independent are trying real hard to instill fear in their readers. Their own fear is palpable, interesting to see them squirm. They certainly lack any kind of forward vision. They are completely out of touch with the social unrest you describe so well, and live in a bubble. I'm sure Greeks celebrating the PM's decision for a referendum didn't feel "The economic gloom was exacerbated yesterday by Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou's surprise announcement that his country would hold a referendum on the European debt deal that was struck last week. The vote could put the tortuously conceived package in jeopardy." The authors seem close to tears that the Chancellor has to revise the package.
Mad Max movies were documentaries.
Soylent Green too.
ah good............a humourous view of things. i laffed out loud!!!
Mr Cameron yesterday approved the construction of power plants at Ferrybridge, West Yorkshire, and Thorpe Marsh, South Yorkshire, creating 1,000 construction jobs. end quote........
great, 1000 jobs to install more power plants to cause disruption to nature....................
We have the infrastructures for many hundreds of thousands of jobs. They're called schools, hospitals, and fire stations for starters. Many hundreds of thousands of teachers have been canned and not just lately. They have been canning school personnel and chopping hours since the Shrub. Then, in Obama's term, that process was sped up. Before the nineties, people were talking about hiring many thousands of additional teachers as classroom size has been considered to be too big for decades. Figure that one teacher with 30 students can spend 2 minutes on each student per hour. This is not good for the teacher or the students. Students needing extra attention or services insure many students will get zero attention during a class.
Further, we have banks who are running the Welfare and Unemployment programs and outsourcing intake jobs to their phone banks in India. Something is seriously wrong here when we put Americans on Welfare, then outsource even the jobs used to deal with the unemployed, and then tell Welfare recipients they are a drain on society and control them , etc. This is simply sick. It is an egregious slap in the face and the example our own government is setting is complete contempt for its people. Not only are these jobs unavailable for the people here, but the taxpayer is double dipped. Meaning, they pay the welfare for the unemployed and underemployed people and then pay the Indian in India a paycheck. Even "triple dipped" when you consider the Indian pays no taxes to the US on this income. Then we have politicians wanting to cut Welfare because of the cost.
"What used to be *our*" government is being slowly taken over by banks who are now skimming these programs for profit. The OnePercent profit from unemployment in dozens of ways. People have actually written books about it. This, while standing around and calling themselves job makers and demanding tax cuts. The hypocrisy is so contemptible there are no words in the English language to come close to this multilevel hypocrisy.
We need to OWS until we have Perp walks, kill Citizen's United, Stop Lobbying, end these for profit wars and wars for Israel on our dime, and take our government back from the OnePercent.
Lets be clear here.
What is being called for is revolution against capitalism.
The corporations own the government.
Question on the agenda? Who will control the corporations? The 99% (working class) or the 1% (capitalist class)?
These are "the grim social effects" of nothing more than astounding wealth imbalance via state-corporatism, and yet another attempt to conquer the world.
(They were supposed to wait until the world was conquered before taking all the loot...)
"Those who would take over the earth
And shape it to their will
Never, I notice, succeed.
The earth is like a vessel so sacred
That at the mere approach of the profane
It is marred
And when they reach out their fingers it is gone.
For a time in the world some force themselves ahead
And some are left behind,
For a time in the world some make a great noise
And some are held silent,
For a time in the world some are puffed fat
And some are kept hungry,
For a time in the world some push aboard
And some are tipped out:
At no time in the world will a man who is sane
Over-reach himself,
Over-spend himself,
Over-rate himself."
LaoTzu #29 600 BC