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Gulf Oil Flow was 12 Times More Than Feds' Original Estimate
WASHINGTON - As BP neared a fix that's expected to kill for good the runaway well that's wreaked economic and environmental catastrophe in the Gulf of Mexico, the government Monday said that 10 to 12 times the amount of oil had been flowing from the well than it originally thought.
Oil and gas leaking from the BP's ruptured well is sprayed with toxic dispersant in this image captured from a BP live video in the Gulf of Mexico on July 15, 2010 New estimates released Monday by a government-led team of scientists found that as much as 62,000 barrels of oil were leaking from the well each day at its peak - far beyond the initial estimate of 5,000 barrels a day and more in line with what scientists told McClatchy it was.
The new estimates raise questions about whether the early response ever anticipated the disaster's actual size and scope. The well gushed an estimated 4.9 million barrels for nearly three months before BP put in place a temporary cap 18 days ago.
The government now estimates that 53,000 barrels were leaking each day before BP installed the cap. Only 800,000 barrels - about 16 percent of the total - was captured before flowing into the ocean.
Now, BP is finalizing plans to begin what's called a "static kill," a process that would force down any remaining oil and gas in the well by pumping heavy drilling mud into it.
"We'll just be slowly pumping the mud in initially and it will gradually build up pressure," BP's Kent Wells said Monday during a technical briefing. "We'll be carefully monitoring the pressures and the volumes. The team will be looking and making sure we do everything to get this well killed, if at all possible."
That procedure is expected to begin Tuesday and could stretch into Wednesday. If it works - and the White House said it is "watching cautiously" - BP will move quickly this week to begin cementing the well closed permanently.
The company still must decide how best to cement the well closed: from the top, or through one of the relief wells currently being drilled. There's still some uncertainty about the conditions deep inside the well, and until they pump mud into it, company officials won't know the safest way to proceed, said Thad Allen, the top federal official in charge of the spill response. It would make him most comfortable to close the well in from the bottom using the relief wells they've drilled, Allen said.
"I think everybody would like to have this thing ended as soon possible," Allen said, "but my duty as the National Incident Commander is to give you my best view. It may be a little conservative, but I think we need to understand: We don't know the condition of the well until we start to put mud in it."
Meanwhile, both Allen and the Environmental Protection Agency on Monday defended the safety of chemicals credited with breaking up the oil into tiny droplets and dispersing it into the Gulf. The EPA said Monday those dispersants hastened the decomposition of the oil, a process that may also have kept vast quantities of oil from fouling the shoreline. BP, which used more than 1.84 million gallons of dispersants, stopped applying them shortly after it put the cap in place.
The EPA said Monday its new study found the dispersants used to break up oil in the Gulf are no more toxic when mixed with oil than the oil is on its own.
Dispersants were used as a "last resort and necessary tool, when all other measures were not adequate" against the oil, said Paul Anastas, the EPA's assistant administrator for research and development. Oil, Anastas said, was "enemy No. 1."
So far, the government's monitoring data shows no accumulation of dispersant in marine life that was tested, including on juvenile shrimp and small fish that are found in the Gulf and are commonly used in toxicity testing.
All eight dispersants were found to be less toxic than the dispersant-oil mixture to both species. Oil was more toxic to shrimp than the eight dispersants when tested alone. Oil alone had similar toxicity to shrimp as the dispersant-oil mixtures, with exception of one other dispersant, which was found to be more toxic than oil.
However, Anastas also said there's "ongoing monitoring" by a number of federal agencies, including the Food and Drug Administration, to ensure the food chain is not affected. The EPA hasn't found any dispersant "away from the wellhead," Anastas said, including in sediment or near coastal wetlands.
He called it "interesting to see that the dispersant/oil mixture was about the same toxicity as oil alone. That shows us that the effect of oil plus dispersant seemed to be a wise decision and that oil itself is the hazard we're concerned about."
Often, Allen said, the government was making decisions "without complete information, and sometimes under conditions of uncertainty because we have never used dispersants at this level before."
"That was done, and to the extent there's an issue about it, I'm the National Incident Commander and I'm accountable," he said.
Yet scientists say many questions remain about the use of the chemicals, and congressional investigators still plan a hearing Wednesday to examine why the U.S. Coast Guard allowed BP to continue using dispersants in the face of multiple warnings from the EPA.
"The Coast Guard proceeded to approve use of surface dispersants 74 times over a period of 48 days," said Rep. Ed Markey, D-Mass. "That is not 'rare' by anyone's understanding of the word, and it raises questions regarding whether an excessive amount of surface dispersant may have been used."
Jerald Ault, a professor at the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, said he's worried about the potential cascading effects of the dispersant in marine life and how it could effect physical growth, reproduction and mortality. Some of the effects on the environment may not play out for some time, he said.
"It's good to say it's in the same ballpark as oil, but from where I sit, that's one plus one," he said. "I buy that it's a tradeoff, but the question is: 'What are the consequences of the tradeoff?' I'm not sure we have the ability to determine that at this point."
Other scientists have linked subsea plumes of oil to the well, and fear that the tiny droplets 4,300 feet below the surface of the Gulf will be more readily absorbed and ingested by marine animals.
"These particles of dispersed oil are small enough to be easily absorbed by filter feeding animals such as oysters, and also absorbed into the bodies of crabs and shrimp," said Gina Solomon, a senior scientist with the Natural Resources Defense Council. "Big globs of oil wouldn't get into these creatures as easily. That may mean a higher likelihood of contamination in the food chain, which would be bad news for predators in the ocean and also maybe for humans if seafood becomes more contaminated with oil residues."

18 Comments so far
Show AllAt one point it was reported that BP would be collecting up to 60,000 to 80,000 barrels a day from the blown out well. If they could have collected that much oil in a day once they had arranged the equipment to manage it, that means that much oil had to be escaping daily from the blown out well head. That is 5.4 million to 7.2 million barrels released into the gulf before the well was capped. Six million barrels is 252 million gallons. Our media has been reporting "up to 7 million GALLONS released into the gulf. It is 7 million BARRELS.
UPDATE TO THE MINUTE: 10:07 a.m., 8/2/10: MSNBC states that up to 206 million barrels may have escaped into the gulf. I believe they are still understating the actual amount.
LIES LIES LIES from all quarters.
from BP's own website, posted on 7/12/10: http://www.bp.com/genericarticle.do?categoryId=2012968&contentId=7063618
Plans also are being developed for additional containment capacity and flexibility that will ultimately increase capacity to 60,000-80,000 barrels per day. These projects are currently anticipated to begin operations towards the end of July.
where is the oil now? is anyone dragging lines through the Atlantic seaboard Gulf Stream to look?
Yes they are all lies ! First off on the dispersant ,if this stuff all of a sudden is not so bad, then why is it illigal in every other country on earth...Plus they hired the scientist to do the tests the way they needed them done. I called down to L.S.U. a couple weeks go, and talked to a friend of mine, and they said there was a lot of in house fighting between the scientists, and professors about some of them taking jobs for B.P. and how they had to sign a gag order for 3 yrs. What in the hell would the truth need to be gaged for, and why would our Goverment allow this. Unless our Goverment is involved at a level that would implicate them even more than the fact they had no regulations, but why would they want to cover up someone elses crime.The oil is there by the millions of barrels and it will rear it's ugly head like Putin did to Sarah, it's just a matter of time. I guess for B.P. three years would be nice.
Usually McClatchy can be counted on for reporting that isn't chock full uncontested blatant lies in quotes. But certainly not this article.
Read the Riki Ott's article, about what effect the oil/dispersant mix is having on the people and marine life in the Gulf region.
Of course Erika Bolstad and Lesley Clark would have immediately determined the correct flow rate from the oil gusher. Hail Erika Bolstad and Lesley Clark, the ignored saviors of the Gulf Coast.
Anybody with an HDTV feed and a hand calculator could have figured it out, all the data was there; a 20in pipe flowing full blast at 8 to 10ft per second velocity -10% for gas in the mix, the rest is a simple equation.
Did you publish your estimate on this site within a few days of the disaster?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhbCu8ybVno&feature=player_embedded
They claim all the bad stuff evaporates into the air (volatile).
But what if they sink it?
What if oil and dispersant never make it to the surface.
All the volatile stuff mixes in the ocean, and there is enough of it to overpower any bug that eats it!
The sank it to get rid of evidence, but hiding evidence makes it impossible to clean up.
There were dead zones before the oil spill. I believe now it's going to be one big dead zone.
I believe that this is just a coverup and that the fish and shrimp are contaminated. Now is time to stop all the deep sea oil drilling and to come up with a new clean energy that is friendly to the environment and to our Mother Earth, who has put up with us humans taking from her and not giving back. I mean how long can we humans take from her and not give back. She can only stand so much and we are now seeing how bad it really is now. and we also need to stop onland oil driling as well and come up with, like I said a new energy that is friendly to the environment and the earth.
Brilliant. plan! Whose going to cleanup all the tens-of millions of dead human bodies, that will surely die over the next few months, in a world suddenly deprived of oil as fuel. Then be ready for the next die off int 10mos due to the food shortage due to lack of oil based fertelizers ans bug sprays.
In two years it should total up to about 50 to 200 million dead. surely those left will be able to live awile on the corpses, then a third die off will occur 18 to 20 mos after that of between 100 and 200 million, as this has never happened before my numbers are based on current consumption figures only, and I have no way to be sure.
But do want to volenteer to dig graves or load bodies?
>^^<
corporations lied and the planet died
LIES, lIES, lIES IS RIGHT AND I AGREE WHOLEHEARTEDLY WITH YOU, DKSHAW.
GERRY
Some Critical Questions (seeking answers):
1) what is the chemical nature of the dispersants? chemical class, partical size, intended activity, nature of reactions with oil and tissue of juvenile shrimp and other marine creatures...
2) was the idea to knock apart the large bodies of oil that could flow longer distances, thereby limiting the zone of contamination (and/or public fallout/political damage from seeing large masses of oil visibly flowing over greater distances)?
3) by breaking down oil globules, and sinking them, are they then creating a more intensely contaminated area around the gusher and other areas where the disperant was applied?
4) if the dispersant is a persistent chemical, does it bond or mix with the organic compounds in oil indefinitely, creating a stable molecule, or will the oil degrade, be used up, leaving this dispersant chemical free in the marine ecosystem to interact and potentially pollute the seafloor for many years, decades, or centuries?
5) are EPA scientists able to objectively look at all these factors and do good, probing science plus make relevant conclusions or frame new questions without undue pressure (ideally, none) due to political issues and/or previously made statements? [both of which are essential for good bias-free, higher-level scientific information...] let's hope
Maybe I'm not reading the article well enough, but I can't figure out what these new estimates are based on. Is it new protocols and systems developed by the government since the spill began? Is it a reinterpretation of the figures the government scientists already had on hand? What has changed that we are now told that the spill was more than an order of magnitude greater than the government earlier thought? Where did this new information come from?
Or maybe the right question is, 'new to whom?' New to the government? New to the government scientists? Where has the information been all this time, that they are, at this late date, coming up with an estimate twelve times greater?
Is this information held as proprietary to BP that has just now been pried out of them? Is it propietary BP information that the government had access to but that it did not share with its own scientists? Does Rep. Markey know more than he can tell us?
Not jumping to any conclusions about secrecy and furtiveness and cover-up (you must know that I would never even hint at such a thing) I still think it might be interesting to get a few questions answered...like (one I left out) what could the government have done from day one of the spill to assure that all this information was out there and available to the people who could use it?
What the hell. It's only a major body of water. Why clutter the table with bothersome trivialities like high crimes and misdemeanors?
Ha, my local newspaper stated that 75% of the mess had been cleaned up already due to BP's efforts and "nature doing her part". Preposterous!
The plan is just to bombard the public with as much bullshit as possible to keep anyone from understanding any of it for as long as possible. By then a new problem will have arrived to fixate on and this will be left alone, unfinished, just like all the disasters before it. The question is how long can these disasters be stacked up before the tower collapses?