EMAIL SIGN UP!
Most Popular This Week
- One American Who Isn't For Sale
- Edward Snowden: Saving Us from the United Stasi of America
- Major Loss to Organic Farmers as Court Rules in Favor of Monsanto
- The Judicial Lynching of Bradley Manning
- Remembering Satyajit Ray’s Hirok Rajar Deshe: On Edward Snowden, Resistance and Inverted Totalitarianism
Popular content
Today's Top News
Two-Degree Temperature Rise Could Flood Wide Areas of Planet, Study Says
A team of geophysicists is warning that the massive polar ice sheets are even more vulnerable to global warming than previously believed, and could trigger a sea level rise of six to nine metres.
This handout photo released by Greenpeace shows the boat Arctic Sunrise reaching 'the ice bridge' in the Robeson channel, near the border between Greenland and Canada on Sept. 14, 2009. Researchers say the last time global temperatures rose a couple of degrees — the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets melted away so extensively that sea level rose between 6.6 and 9.4 metres. (Photograph by: Nick Cobbing, Handout/Greenpeace) The scientists from Princeton and Harvard universities say that just two degrees Celsius of global warming, which is now widely expected to occur in coming decades, could be enough to commit the planet to inundation.
"The time to avoid disastrous outcomes may run out sooner than expected," says Princeton's Michael Oppenheimer.
He is co-author of a ominous new report on what happened the last time global temperatures rose a couple of degrees - the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets melted away so extensively that sea level rose between 6.6 and 9.4 metres.
If emissions of greenhouse gases are not reduced soon, they scientists say the planet could be committed to comparable melting, which might be unstoppable.
They say low-lying regions around the world could be inundated by more than a metre of sea level rise this century, followed by many more metres in coming centuries. Low-lying areas like Bangladesh and Florida would be hard hit, and Canadian communities from Tuktoyaktuk to Vancouver to Charlottetown could all expect to see waters rise. A one-metre rise in sea level would immediately affect 145 million people around the world.
The geophysicists' report in the journal Nature Thursday is a new - and much more "startling," according to a commentary accompanying the report - assessment of what occurred the last time polar temperatures were three to five degrees Celsius warmer than today. The so-called "last interglacial stage" 125,000 years ago is considered an analogue or guide to what might happen if global warming continues on its current path.
The new assessment is based on sea level indicators such as coral and beach records as well as changes to Earth's gravity and surface as massive ice sheets melted away. It concludes that during the last interglacial, global sea level peaked more than 6.6 metres higher than today and may have risen 9.4 metres. That is higher than previous estimates, and indicates much of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets melted away.
The "disconcerting message" is that the planet's response to 1.5-2 degree C of global warming could be an increase in sea level of seven to nine metres, Peter Clark at Oregon State University writes in a commentary.
Given current rates of fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, Princeton co-author Robert Kopp notes that Earth is on track to have "significantly more warming by the end of century than occurred during the last interglacial."
The researchers caution that it is not clear from their study how long temperatures had to stay high to commit the planet to six to nine metres of sea level rise last time around.
Despite the uncertainties, Oppenheimer says the findings should send a "strong message" to the governments negotiating in Copenhagen about the need to reduce emissions.
- Posted in
Comments
Note: Disqus 2012 is best viewed on an up to date browser. Click here for information. Instructions for how to sign up to comment can be viewed here. Our Comment Policy can be viewed here. Please follow the guidelines. Note to Readers: Spam Filter May Capture Legitimate Comments...



47 Comments so far
Show AllIce Does Not Compromise:
Actually, Ice compromises with my Scotch very nicely every evening after work.
Each new report shows greater acceleration than previously expected. Feedback loops on top of feedback loops increase the changing of the climate exponentially. I fear we are past the tipping point.
As the purpose of this world is to prove the harm in it,
the "tipping point" is when things cannot possible get
any worse. For then all things will turn toward the good.
The day all things turn toward the good sounds like a fine day indeed. Let's hope there are some of us left to see that day.
But when all things turn toward the good,
a celebration will there be with everyone in
attendance who ended up being harmless and good.
Another alarming report from cautious and responsible professionals.
Which will be dismissed and scoffed at by thousands of deniers on the basis of some English emails and wishful thinking.
Good luck.
EVA MORALES ---- TODAY
AMY GOODMAN
You spoke yesterday here at the Bella Center and said we cannot end global warming without ending capitalism. What did you mean?
PRESIDENT EVO MORALES
Capitalism is the worst enemy of humanity. Capitalism—and I’m speaking about irrational development—policies of unlimited industrialization are what destroys the environment. And that irrational industrialization is capitalism. So as long as we don’t review or revise those policies, it’s impossible to attend to humanity and life.
AMY GOODMAN
How would you do that? How would you end capitalism?
PRESIDENT EVO MORALES
It’s changing economic policies, ending luxury, consumerism. It’s ending the struggle to—or this searching for living better. Living better is to exploit human beings. It’s plundering natural resources. It’s egoism and individualism.
Therefore, in those promises of capitalism, there is no solidarity or complementarity. There’s no reciprocity. So that’s why we’re trying to think about other ways of living lives and living well, not living better. Not living better. Living better is always at someone else’s expense. Living better is at the expense of destroying the environment.
http://www.democracynow.org/2009/12/17/bolivian_president_evo_morales_on_climate
CORP IS BORG
Stewart Brand proposed an interesting solution: Raise or lower carbon taxes depending on the numerical rate of melting or formation of summer ice at the poles.
Stewart Brand is, or at least was, a very smart man. Stewart is not a climate scientist though, and I think that every climate scientist will tell you that climate change is about momentum and if you wait till such phenomena as melting of ice sheets become entrained, you have just waited too long.
If it meant that the rate of change would be measured yearly I might agree with you. One year behind may be too late.
mujeriego (does that mean 'girl-bat' ? I tip my Laphroaig to you.
It means "womanizer"
Bailing out Dubai World is pointless. It is going under the waves and the Great Shroud of the Sea will roll over it.
But they don't care, for the name of the game in capitalism
is quick return on investments, quick pleasure and dump the
project losses on the next sucker that comes along.
by that time the US tax payers would probably be left holding the paper for it...
[A one-metre rise in sea level would immediately affect 145 million people around the world.]
The thing the article didn't mention about a one metre rise in sea level would be that every port on earth would have to be rebuilt should such a thing happen. For some time, until the ports are rebuilt, there wouldn't be any deliveries of manufactured goods from any country to any other country. Supplies of grain, if it could still be grown, would not be able to be shipped from where it is, to where it's needed. Supplies of oil would not travel from one region to another, and need to be seriously rationed, if available at all.
The only good news about this is that it couldn't possibly flood all the lands of the earth. There's just not enough water on the planet for that to happen. (nor was there ever enough water on the planet for that to happen, but don't tell the fundies that...)
I doubt that the idiots in charge of this planetary asylum are going to do anything to prevent this report from happening. I am very happy that I never had children...
But only if the purpose of this world was to prove the good in it,
should be look with dread on day when nothing remains but the bad.
But if the purpose of this world is to prove the harm in it,
then when things cannot possibly get any worse, then all
things surely turn toward the good. The good purpose
having been accomplished, then all that follows must
also be good.
[But only if the purpose of this world ...]
What on earth makes you think there is any purpose for the world at all? If you quote some metaphysical mumbo-jumbo from the bronze age, I'll just laugh at you again...
I read somewhere a long time ago that if the earth were perfectly spherical, no depressions or hills, this planet would be covered by two and one half miles of water. That is a lot of water, but there will mountains and depressions on the surface of the earth as long as humans are here.
I saw a truck today with a bumper sticker "Global Warming is a Hoax".
I think it takes a leap of faith to believe the earth's rotation causes day and night, that the earth orbits the Sun, that the planet's axis is tilted at an an angle of 23.5 degrees, but I do believe it.
I believe it because it explains so many things so well---things apparently having nothing to do with each other.
If ushered into a room with a comfortable temperature I would be hard pressed to say whether the temperature of the room were 69 or 70 or 71 degrees. So when you talk to me about a CLIMATE change of 2 or 3 degrees (climate being the average annual weather at a given point on the globe) that is pretty much meaningless to me.
It is meaningless UNLESS I consider how much energy it would take to raise the global temperature 2 or 3 degrees.
A calorie is the heat required to raise the temperature of 1 gram of water 1 degree Celsius. There are about 28.6 grams in an ounce, and very roughly 2 degrees F. to 1 degree C.
Should the oceans become 2 degrees C. warmer, we would be talking about a very great quantity of heat indeed.
In the case of climate change, the issue for me is that I believe in the institution of science--I can't out at the world see the change, but I can read the reports from all the others that can.
Well, when we build floating platforms to survive, we'll be collecting rainwater and growing crops under protective auto-sunscreened glass (like those cool glasses people wear that turn into shades when you walk outside!).
What will the planet need to survive? Oh yeah - worms! They poop out the stuff that food needs to grow.
It's the opportunity of a lifetime - check out communitymachine.com to see what I mean.
I don't need to check it out. I happen to know that while steak is only 12% Usable protein, termites are 40% usable protein.
They may not be appetizing, but they are nourishing.
Humans can live on almost anything--or could--before they believed themselves gods. Ever wonder why every single culture studied believed in, worshiped, sacrificed for, and saw always always in his dreams---his God?
He loves to talk about himself, this last man, but I tell you that his favorite neuroses is projection, and so there are gods and Gods and GODS and goDs, all anthromorpohic
The "two degree" number is a long way off.
First and foremost, no country wants to get past discussing the shape of the bargaining table. It's all about getting the other guy to give a little more.
Second, we're looking at a runaway global methane release. The numbers have been nothing if not up. Call it what it is. Please speculate on the high end for once. What can happen if exponential trends continue? "Science" is no excuse for scientific cowardice.
I agree...as if the constant revisions, in and of themselves, aren't evidence enough that the estimates are little more than published hopes, if not outright lies to prevent disruption and panic, or anarchy and rebellion...
all we are doing, in the face of catastrophe, is adding to the problem...who would logically expect the future predictions to do anything other than worsen, and exponentially?
see, they're not going to come out in a week and 'discover' all of our pollution is suddenly eradicating cancer, rather than causing it...just in case you're waiting...
I've alway
If you want to watch your house and town flood out, or if you want to laugh at everyone else because you live in Montana, here's a flooding simulator.
http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showthreaded&Number=847094&site_id=1#import
It certainly sounds real. Teach your children (whatever they aren't getting from school which could be a lot) and prepare for change. Humans are very adaptable and innovative. Politicians are going to run (and talk) in circles whether we're watching them or not. At least part of our attention might well be devoted now to what we can accomplish without them.
Hi dus7....while I agree we are very adaptive and innovative, there are limits--witness our failure to colonize the moon. At the end of the day, we are creatures dependent on nature's goods and services for our survival.
Jon
www.StudentsForTheEarth.org
We left the tipping point behind many years ago when the US MILITARY blew up the atom and hydrogen bombs, nearly 1100 of them , in the atmosphere of this formerly lush planet.
The war and the army has caused this.
Just like they caused the hole blown in the ozone by the hydrogen bomb at bikini atoll, They blamed you and me for that one! We were using too much shave cream w/ cfc propellents!! HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA H AH !!!
But hey don't worry-Be happy!
any one here who remains intellectually honest will get this next sentence!!!
Keep your powder and your garden seeds dry and your boots on!
If we are really lucky perhaps some distant relatives of yours or mine in the future will be neo-primitives living somehow in Antarctica-which may be the only habitabl non-desert left!
Oh goody for capitalism!!!!
Obomba Chump Change we can bolster denial with! Oh goody!!
Two-degrees above what?
Yeesh, they do this all the time. Above what?
2000-09 was the hottest decade on record. So, 2 degrees above that? Or the decade before? Or some average I can't seem to find anywhere - except for the ones I can, all of which are many more than 2 degrees cooler than 2000-09.
Give us a hard number! If we hit 98, do we all explode? Or will we drown first if we hit 84?
Its this kind of vagueness the lunatic deniers attack with full frothing vigor...
NOAA uses 1971-2000 30-year average for the baseline reference, others use 1961-1990.
I believe the 2 degree C target actually refers to a preindustrial baseline--see www.2DegreesC.com
www.StudentsForTheEarth.org
with respect to Brian, I think you are right.
Frank, this f-ing site just ate a 500 word note answering that question.
inshort, get Al's book version of "An Incon Truth" and study the chart.
Get acopy , if u can find it of "The Great Iceage", by Drury, and Chapman, and start connecting the dots.
absolutely maddening!
I've always thought that there was a much more deadly tipping point out there that might be reached, and spark change incredibly fast, on the order of a few years, not a 100.
At the beginning of the current inter-glacial cycle, when the glaciers were retreating north into Canada, the fresh water introduced into the north atlantic caused a reversal of the warming within just a few years period (i think 3 years). it didn't take much to reverse that massive retreat. eventually, an equilibrium was reached.
but who's to say a trigger couldn't cause a massive shift in 5 years. I don't think climatologists know the answer to that question with absolute certainty, indeed i am sure they don't.
I have believed what you are saying for some time---it COULD happen in 3 years or even one instead of twenty.
Well, I think global warming is real. BUT, why in the heck is December so d_ _ n cold here in Northern Virginia. The temperature is way below normal. I have had to feed more hay to my horses than is normal due to early onset of cold weather. It's more like January. Maybe the "weathermiesters" are at it again. Playing their HAARP.
Hi Trisha...Global Warming speaks to the issue of increasing AVERAGE Temperatures of the Earth. Some places are actually experiencing cooling while others, such as the Arctic, are experiencing much more warming than the average. From PewClimate.org: "..While the world as a whole warmed about 1F degree over the entire 20th century, parts of the Arctic have warmed by 4-5 F degrees just since the 1950s. The Arctic continues to warm at a rate about twice as fast as rest of the world..."
The Southern Ocean is an area of the world which is experiencing a cooling trend.
Global Warming only speaks to the trend. Any given year may be either cooler or warmer than the preceding.
I hope this helped.
www.StudentsForTheEarth.org
And here in MT, I feel your shivers as we have had recent temps when -10 was the high for the day....Jon
Hi Jon,
I think you're chatting up either a troll of a conspiracy nut. Probably both. (Google 'HAARP' and you'll see what I mean.) Explanations are a waste of time.
Hansjurg
If the Greenland icecap dumps enough fresh water to float on the more dense ocean water that is carrying the heat from the tropics it could get very cold indeed in Northern Virginia, and for a very long time.
Yes, it's bitterly cold in England too.
We should keep what little money we have left after the bankers and politicians have fleeced us, and use it to insulate and take our own measures to cut our energy usage. If they tax us even more (dare they) and give our remaining cash to Africa, it will only mean more Mercedes there, and less insulation and downsizing here. We need money to restructure ourselves and, what's more, it doesn't get as cold in Africa as it does here!
Might Mugabe be interested in paying my gas bill I wonder?
Jon - Student"
Global Warming speaks to the issue of increasing AVERAGE Temperatures of the Earth. Some places are actually experiencing cooling while others, such as the Arctic, are experiencing much more warming than the average. From PewClimate.org:
Thanks for your input, Jon. Yes, some places are cooler. I know there have been not too many "normal" seasons here. The past 2 Springs into early Summer, anyway, were cold and wet.
And as for you Hansjerk, I am not a troll nor a conspiracy "nut", thank you very much.
Find and study, "The Great Iceage", by Drury, Chapman, etal. A 12 yr old text, extensively doc'd, telling us, among other things, that 4/5 of the icesheet melted off Greenland before the defeat/reversal of the Eemian CO2/Temp spike 110ky ago....but that interglacial probably wasn't juiced by the burning of drilled/dug oil, gas and coal.
I grew up along the Chesapeake Bay in the 1950s and learned early on from direct observation and questions I asked older generations that the great estuary was being destroyed by human activity, especially uncontrolled industrial exploitation.
From that very local frame of reference, I'd title this article "Chesapeake's Revenge - A Damn Good Flush".
As usual, the poor & innocent will suffer the brunt.
We simply cannot depend on the "world leaders" to reduce consumption.
We have the power to cumulatively reduce consumption to reduce the supply we demand.
Are we holding on to our defensiveness about change or are we recognizing that meat-eating is denigrating our land, water and air?
Can we be environmentalists and still be meat-eaters?
Recent UN and Pew Commission studies show that farmed animals contribute more to climate change than all transport combined.
98% of soy crops and 756 million tons of grain and corn per year are fed to farmed animals.
441 gallons of water are used to produce 1 1b. of beef per the Cattlemen's Association. Experts say it is closer to 2500.
Are we progressive only when it means we don't have to change?