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TechnoratiPermafrost Melting a Growing Climate Threat: Study
SINGAPORE - The amount of carbon locked away in frozen soils in the far Northern Hemisphere is double previous estimates and rapid melting could accelerate global warming, a study released on Wednesday says.
Large areas of northern Russia, Canada, Nordic countries and the U.S. state of Alaska have deep layers of frozen soil near the surface called permafrost.
Global warming has already triggered rapid melting of the permafrost in some areas, releasing powerful greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane.
As the world gets warmer, more of these gases are predicted to be released and could trigger a tipping point in which huge amounts of the gases flood the atmosphere, rapidly driving up temperatures, scientists say.
"Massive amounts of carbon stored in frozen soils at high latitudes are increasingly vulnerable to exposure to the atmosphere," said Pep Canadell, executive director of the Global Carbon Project at Australia's state-funded Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation.
"The research shows that the amount of carbon stored in soils surrounding the North Pole has been hugely underestimated."
The study is published in the latest issue of Global Biogeochemical Cycle.
Canadell said a four-year study of the latest research on permafrost, data from new drilling projects as well as the release of previously unpublished data from the Russian Academy of Sciences had led to a rethink of carbon levels.
"Projections show that almost all near-surface permafrost will disappear by the end of this century exposing large carbon stores to decomposition and release of greenhouse gases," he said in a statement.
He said if only 10 per cent of the permafrost melted, this could lead to the release of an additional 80 parts per million of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere. This would equate to about 0.7 degrees Celsius of global warming.
According to the U.N. Climate Panel, average temperatures have already risen by about 0.7 deg C since the late nineteenth century and are forecast to rise another 1.8 to 4 deg C by 2100, Scientists say a rapidly warming planet will trigger more intense storms and droughts, rising seas and melting ice caps.
Canadell said that on a recent trip to northern China, the permafrost at its southern limit had all but disappeared over the past 20 years.
Locals had told him the permafrost was once 20 cm below the surface and now it was several metres down, he told Reuters from Canberra, Australia.
In the statement, he said computer models showed global warming could trigger an irreversible process of thawing.
For example, heat generated from increased microbial activity in the soil could lead to sustained and long-term emissions of carbon dioxide and methane.
In addition, lakes formed as permafrost thaws would draw heat to deeper layers and bring methane trapped in pockets below to the surface. (Reporting by David Fogarty; Editing by Jerry Norton)
11 Comments so far
Show AllI have children and grandchildren ----- I do not envy them. My generation has wrought more devastation on them, I think, than all previous ones combined ---- can it be turned around? It appears that there are indeed "tipping points" past which there is no remedy. We worry about the wrong things. Our priorities have been simply wrong --- exploitation for profit instead of stewardship in many areas, both economic and environmental.
A great book on paleo climate and archeology is
'Under a Green Sky', by Ward.
If one were to chart scientific predictions on how long we have left v. the years the predictions were made... we would see yet another geometric progression, no?
My take on this is that the earth is a system and that this discussion will eventually include extraordinary tectonic activity associated with the change in location of planetary water mass; a change in the way water is 'carried' by the atmosphere (super-cooled droplets); a primer on atmospheric facts such as: half the mass of the atmosphere is below 18,000 ft (less than twice the length of a major airport runway); that most weather occurs below 25,000 ft; and, that temperatures are constant at -55C only four runway lengths up from the surface...
it's interesting to note that articles on events which will undoubtedly have the greatest impact upon our lives always draw the least amount of attention here on cd. now, if hedges or klein or nader had written this, the demand for discussion board space would be equal to the demand for cooler temps as the earth begins paying us back for the slow and sorry destruction we have inflicted upon her.
most all other elements of the plant and animal kingdoms have begun to adapt. meanwhile, man's greatest gift, denial, continues.
Now, if those scientists had only had the foresight to label the stuff "tempafrost" to begin with, all this pesky melting could have been avoided.
Kem Patrick! Are you still out there?
Kem had a lot to say about this a few years ago and got into terrible fights here on CD. He was right, and its getting worse.
Hawking's three reasons for not seeing time travelers: 1)Time traveler discretion. 2)Its impossible. 3)We don't survive long enough to invent it. My bet is on number 3.
Thanks for the chuckle *grins*
I guess that we are at the end of an Era.
Personally I have often felt like Chicken Little since the early 70's.
This is when I first began to notice a decline or disappearence of small species of fish and insects due to pollution.
It has been one bad story after another since then and who knows what the future will bring.
I do somehow have a great faith in the humans to pull together in times of great distress.
I have seen it often during fire season in California.
So who knows what the future will bring.
It could be Heaven and it could be Hell.
Change is difficult and there is usually a time of despair and confusion before the Light shines again.
Let's hold on to that thought and please get out of your automiobiles and on to a bike or (dread the thought) take a walk to the corner market!
And have a wonderful summer with your loved ones!
welcome to NEW VENUS, be sure your oxygen rebreather mask is on when the air locks open....mm-mmm... smell that gas. It is little wonder that human endeavors are going to leave our sweet planet smelling like rotten eggs, and looking worse. And what remains of us will be stewing in it...now that is progress.
Both carbon dioxide and methane are colorless, odorless gases. Natural gas is sometimes spiked with hydrogen sulfide (the smelly stuff), a gas that is detectable by human's sense of smell at low part per billion levels as a safety measure. Nevertheless, melting of the permafrost is already emitting enormous volumes of these gases to atmosphere and is one more of the positive feedback loops that early global warming models did not even take into account. A tipping point indeed.
often, the audio feedback that will, eventually, become deafening, ear-splitting, begins as a barely noticeable hum or ring in the atmosphere...a polite notice, if you will, of a window of opportunity...a chance to react and modify the volume or equalization before the pain becomes physical, then great, then unbearable...
the planet is humming, ringing...
Went to a couple of radar sites when just a rookie in the AF in 55 as part of the 6631 radio relay sq.School in Newfoundland,Cartwright,Labrador where we land on the water in a seaplane and left on helicopter because the bay was frozen,flew to Goose Bay,Labrador on to Baffin Bay about 400 miles from Greenland.Landed on a permafrost runway there.It was cold and hard.Heard it too was melting.The point being that in my lifetime it is already changed.This was part of the Pinetree AC&W Squadrons and consisted of 10 sites if memory serves after 50 yrs.Tony
I wonder how the corporate backed global warming deniers will try to spin this side effect from their employers activities.