The Best Thing Not to Have Happened During the Bush Administration
The best thing to not to have happen during the Bush administration is we did not privatize Social Security, as Bush wanted.
Had we done so, boomers facing retirement over the next few years would be even worse off than they are now. Now they’re struggling with pension plans worth less than they counted on, and home values that are tanking.
At least they can rely on a monthly Social Security check.
But if we had privatized, prospective retirees would be totally reliant on the stock market. And look what’s happened to the market. Comparing stock values now to what they were ten years ago adjusted for inflation, the S&P 500 has risen a little over 1 percent a year. Treasury bonds have done better. Go back nine years, and there’s been no gain at all. Go back eight years and market has been off an average of 1.4 percent a year.
Yes, I know, it’s been a rough time. First the tech bubble bursting, then 9/11, then Enron, then the housing bubble bursting, then the credit crunch. But that’s my point. We can’t necessarily rely on the stock market.
And anyone who thinks the market will shortly regain all the ground it’s lost has been drinking Wall Street cool-aid. The Fed can only do so much. It’s reluctant to cut rates much further because of inflationary forces. Meanwhile, the stimulus package is far too little. A few hundred dollars won’t cause consumers to buy more. They’re paying far more for fuel and food and health insurance, their paychecks are shrinking, they’re deep in debt, and their home values are sinking. Consumer confidence is plummeting.
So imagine if boomer retirees didn’t have Social Security.
Sure, the stock market has done well over the past half century. But there have been decades like the 1970s and this one so far, where it’s been a disaster. That’s why we have Social Security so that if your timing is bad and you get caught in a downdraft, you still have something to fall back on in retirement. If we had privatized, you’d have nothing to fall back on. You’d crash.
Robert Reich is Professor of Public Policy at the Goldman School of Public Policy at the University of California at Berkeley. He has served in three national administrations, most recently as secretary of labor under President Bill Clinton. He has written ten books, including The Work of Nations, which has been translated into 22 languages; the best-sellers The Future of Success and Locked in the Cabinet, and his most recent book, Reason. His articles have appeared in the New Yorker, Atlantic Monthly, New York Times, Washington Post, and Wall Street Journal. Mr. Reich is co-founding editor of The American Prospect magazine.
As I was reading all the financial pundits reading their crystal balls about the future of the market I was thinking exactly what Mr. Reich so aptly wrote: What if? I’m still not sure how we escaped that tragedy and before the housing crises came along Bush was making noises like he was going to push for that piece of insanity again.
I’m sure the millions of displaced homeless families in Iraq and elsewhere are enormously pleased to have distracted Bush’s attention long enough to preserve Social Security for Americans. I guess we’ll never know how the hundreds of thousands of dead feel about it, but such are the fortunes of war*.
__
* Yes, I know it’s actually an illegal invasion and occupation, but I couldn’t think of an appropriately dismissive historical parallel.
SHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!! Their reign of terror is hardly over. As a matter of fact, I would go so far as to say that “they’ve only just begun”.
Some people think that the Holy Grail that corporations seek in privatizing Social Security would be so that the money “managed” would be put into the stock market.
Though that is one of their “goals”, I think there is a bigger and badder one that us opponents of privatization should speak about more than we do.
Corporations want to sell you the annuities and profit mightily from doing so. When the pot of money is converted to monthly income for life in the form of a Social Security check, there is an opportunity to sell this as a form of “insurance” on how long you’ll live.
Think AXA and their ads on TV for the 800-pound gorilla in the room telling you to get an AXA annuity for “guaranteed income for life.” Imagine yourself FORCED to choose between benefits marketed by a TV gorilla, or a duck (AFLAC) or a gecko (GEICO)—you know, “competitive choices.”
You already have income for life (with no tricks and no ad costs built in). It’s called Social Security. DON’T GIVE IT AWAY—–UNLESS YOU RELISH GIVING HALF YOUR BENEFITS TO THE CORPORATE OWNERS OF LOGOS FOR GORILLAS, POULTRY AND LIZARDS.
The reign of terror is presided over by two political parties, and YES, their reign of terror is hardly over.
I concur with Marymag. Why tempt fate by giving them ideas?
My dream come true is when some congressional committee chairs finally tell the Pentagon and military conmtractor and security state establishment what they have been telling the less fortunate in our midst for years:
“Haven’t we tried solving your problems long enough by just throwing money at them? Let’s see you start to show some initiative and find more creative solutions that don’t depend on government money.”
When those fat hogs start to squeal, then we call them ungreatful parasites and demand the more adamantly that they be weaned from the Federal breast.
Yes, I’m glad we still have Social Security, even though Bush thought 9-11, recession and war would give him the opportunity to destroy it. As he repeatedly said, “Lucky me. I hit the trifecta!”
http://www.davidcogswell.com/MediaRoulette/TrifectaJoke.html
But why is Robert Reich repeating the corporate spin that housing values rising are a good thing for Americans?
If you own your own home and don’t plan to “flip it” or use it for collateral to buy a 4-wheeler or go on a cruise, there is absolutely no benefit to the average person to have housing values go up, and a BIG downside, property taxes go up with the “value”.
So your income doesn’t rise, but your taxes do, based on imaginary value.
I don’t see why I, as an ordinary American lucky enough to buy before the “value” went up, and smart enough to ignore the temptations of the financial speculators, should mourn the imaginary loss that I have not had.
The corporations that own the US government will attempt to destroy social security every time the opportunity arises for two reasons:
1) The social security trust fund is a giant pot of money that they are attracted to like sharks are attracted to blood. If they can convert that pot from a program (that incurs expenses in the 1 to 2% range) that serves 95% of the population to a program that pays them exhorbitant fees to provide fewer benefits to a smaller % of the population, they will have another source of corporate welfare, and
2) 95% of the population will be handcuffed to the “ownership society” where ALL of EVERYBODY’s money is tied up in corporate stocks and bonds, thereby giving the corporations a license to steal, rape and murder. If your financial future is 100% tied to corporate profits, you will vote for as many wars, pollution, price fixing and human rights abuses as possible. The corporations will no longer need to bribe politicians, the citizens of the “ownership society” will always support their point of view.
We’re in a perfect storm…75 millions will be retired/retiring in just two years.
Social Security was created at a time when there was 16 workers to every one retiree. The ratio is about 4 to 1 now.
Workers will draw down their mutual funds/bonds to pay the shortfall of a SS check.
The dollar is collapsing against the Euro right now-it’s literally in free fall. But this is not being actively reported by the media. No need to create a run on the banks, even though this already happened at the house of JP Stearn.
As the dollar goes into a free fall, many nations will dump the dollar in favor of the Euro. This will only accelerate the price of oil much faster. We are watching this play out right now.
When hyperinflation occurs, the dollar that you bought 4 years ago is worth .50 cents on the dollar today. The government calls this a profit because they sold you a T-bill and gave you half back. When America wakes up to this reality, panic will set in - Ok, a bit slippery slope logic, but this too will play out as more Americans continue to loose their homes and jobs.
Stay informed - read what’s happening in the international banking society (magazines and books) - stock your pantry - hard times are ahead.
It’s a perfect storm for so many things. The majority listen to main stream media and believe it. I honestly think that if only they knew…. we might still be able to save our country.
A fuck the boomers. For a generation that used to be such idealists, they’ve become a very greedy and destructive generation.
That could be a best thing that didn’t happen. I can’t think of any good things that did.
Back off Elmo,
The “Boomers” you speak of are a creation of the advertising industry.
Very few of those who came of age in the 1960’s ever attended a love-in or an anti-war demonstration. Only a handful of them ever marched with King or joined the Peace Corp.
The Myth of the Baby-Boom Generation was created by Madison Avenue, which only saw a demographic bubble of consumers with disposable income. It came up with an image for them, and a slew of new product they would “need” to live up to that image.
They’re doing the same thing to “Gen-X” and “Gen-Y”.
And as each generation loses it’s buying power, the mass media dicards them like a used… well, you know.
Regarding Social Security: It’s partly a savings program, but mostly a commitment by the nation’s working-age citizens to keep the nation’s retired citizens out of poverty. The ratio of workers to retirees is a real problem. So is the longer life-span of retirees.
But it shouldn’t be. The benefits of century of automation and increased worker productivity have been realized entirely as investor profit. It’s time to translate some of that benefit to the working class; as a shorter workday and week, and a more secure retirement system.
middlec April 29th, 2008 2:58 pm
“Workers will draw down their mutual funds/bonds to pay the shortfall of a SS check.”
middlec,
You’re assuming there will still be money left in these funds/accounts to draw from. I don’t think that’s going to happen. As was true in the stock market crash of 1929, the wealthy who are running the “dark pool” transactions will legally confiscate our money and the majority will be left with nothing.
As you have advised - stock your pantry!
Good article. What a scam the 401k deal turned out to be, eh? About 2 years ago my wife got into a plan where she worked, and where Meryl Lynch is the manager of the fund. At some point she had $400+, but not it’s down to below $200. Would have been better to put the money in a bank CD. Oh well.
Do you really think there will be money in the Social Security fund, when you retire, after war, tax-cut, war, tax-cut, and more war? Oh, pleeeaaazzze, don’t be so naive.
Retirement is going to be a replay, only much larger in scope, of the sub-prime mortgage crisis. There will be those that haven’t saved and must be bailed-out by the Guv-mint, many who did save will be regularly selling stock from their 401K plans putting a drag on the market, and there aren’t enough Gen X/Y out there to provide the same demographic mix enjoyed by the ‘Greatest Generation’. Let’s hope China and India want to buy our stock when the time comes and that the market doesn’t look like the home market does today — lots of “ask” and no “bid”.
After one looks at how much (of other people’s money) Merrill Lynch, Bear Stearns, Citigroup and other private investment banks have lost in the past year, I will not ever in my lifetime accept the notion that those institutions should be entrusted with managing the nation’s trust funds (remember the television commercials a few years ago that encouraged people to invest their funds (and their futures) to something called “Total Merrill”?). Well, if a sixty year old person had invested their faith Iand their life’s earnings) in “Total Merrill” they would today be Totally F*cked. I will forever hold those clowns up as the poster boys of all that is wrong with free markets, and if the government entrusts the Social Security fund to them I will start keeping my money in a buried coffee can.
Right. Manage your own money, live within your means, and enjoy your life.
Watch that overhead! Be smart.
Allow me to disagree:
The best thing not to happen during the illegal CheneyBush administration is that NO ONE GOT NUKED.
Yet.
Social Security won’t be safe until/unless the republicans are kept out of the majority. All those “handouts” programs have been their targets since they came into being. Other targets in their agenda to destroy or prevent are D.C. statehood, and the U.N. My mother was pulled into a fanatical church after my dad died, and had to switch political parties. I couldn’t believe the amount of mail she got from republican committees wanting donations that would help them in their fight.
We should all start living as if there is no one but us who’ll take care of us. Living within our means; not feeding the corporations with our piddling little incomes, or playing to those who don’t give a damn whether we sink or swim. I think putting our money in a coffee can is a very good idea. We certainly aren’t getting anything out of having it in a bank. But look what the banks are getting out of it.
y2kcockroach April 29th, 2008 4:09 pm
“I will forever hold those clowns up as the poster boys of all that is wrong with free markets, and if the government entrusts the Social Security fund to them I will start keeping my money in a buried coffee can.”
y2k,
When the $hit hits the fan, we will need gold and silver to barter with. Federal Reserve Notes will be worthless unless you wash them and then use them as toilet paper.
I wonder what the status of the Social Security system would be if the U.S. Government repaid, with interest, all of the I.O.U.s that have accumulated over the years, as a result of the raiding of Social Security funds in order to pay for other things (i.e. making up for revenue lost giving tax breaks to people and corporations that didn’t, don’t and will not need them).
What “free markets”???
I find it odd that the big companies declare “we lost 15 million this quarter”
when in fact they made 7 millions, and still made profit..but because they made 19 million last quarter and only 7 million this quarter they call it a “loss”
I was under the assumption that a loss means negative profit.. guess i just don’t understand business..
What we need from experts and authorities like Robert Reich who have had a hand in government and public policy and continue to be opinion makers is real leadership, a willingness to step up to the mic and tell it like it is.
And here’s how it is: we’re in the midst of a terminal crisis of the privatized financial system called the Federal Reserve that has taken us to the edge of the precipice, where we breath a sigh a relief and say: “Thank god they didn’t privatized social security!” Yes, and we can keep on thinking that thought as we tumble into the financial black hole created by the privateers. Round about 2009, next year, we won’t be able to pay even the interest on the national debt. Through the miracle of compound interest, we will learn the meaning of national bankruptcy. The dollar will be worthless and we will be in a depression the likes of which we cannot imagine. Thank god that we will have social security!
A guy like Robert Reich, who is a fine human being, a warm, witty, bright human being with a big heart, needs to wake up because he can’t see the forest for the trees. We have been betrayed by the bankers and speculators to whom we have entrusted the operation of our financial system. What should we do, Professor Reich? Look at the bright side and thank god they didn’t steal our social security?
I don’t like to disturb your moment of positivity, but they have!
Get off Prozac, or Paxil, or whatever it is that makes you feel good and have a look around you!
“I will forever hold those clowns up as the poster boys of all that is wrong with free markets, and if the government entrusts the Social Security fund to them I will start keeping my money in a buried coffee can.”
[Note to Self: buy that metal-detector _before_ credit-card is denied…]
CRUXPUPPY: It’s curious that you mention 2009. My background in studying the LAW of cycles, “As above, so below” places great scrutiny on late 2009 and into the first half of 2010 when several planets return to the same planetary positions (and/or angles) as was the case during The Great Depression. Even without any celestial analysis, the Trifecta of global warming, the US debt, and this immoral war that’s bleeding our treasury (and equally soaking our national karma in stains of darkness) are sufficient to make the case for an inevitable cycle of karmic blowback.
jjohnjj said: Back off Elmo,
The “Boomers” you speak of are a creation of the advertising industry.
Very few of those who came of age in the 1960’s ever attended a love-in or an anti-war demonstration. Only a handful of them ever marched with King or joined the Peace Corp.
The Myth of the Baby-Boom Generation was created by Madison Avenue, which only saw a demographic bubble of consumers with disposable income. It came up with an image for them, and a slew of new product they would “need” to live up to that image.
1) It’s elmysterio not elmo…sheesh.
2) There’s not a MYTH of the boomers… there’s a large number of people born in that ‘generation’, and again, don’t blame the media for your actions. (I’m guessing you’re a boomer from your reaction to my post). It was the BOOMERS that ushered in the “ME” decade… it is the boomers that took predatory capitalism to the next level. It is the boomers who are running the world now and just look how bad it is.
I am the youngest of a large family… My older siblings are part of the boomer generation… and they are so frickin capitalist that it’s sickening, considering where they came from… But no… you have to say “It’s all Madison Avenue’s fault”… bah. What a cop-out.
Another thing that has not happened under Dubya that one would expect of a religious Republican administration is an attack on the Porn industry. It makes one think that perhaps money changed hands, and perhaps other favors as well.
heh. I seem to be pissing a lot of people off today. Guess I’m a little ornery. lol
Reich, one of the best of the Clinton administration who gets too little credit for smarts, is dead on. But guess what Republicans? You can have Social Security as it is and still invest in the stock market if you want to.
Amazing.
NateW: either that or Georgie-boy likes his porn…
elmysterio,
No sense in damning a whole generation, brother - we’re not all the same anymore than is your generation. We were born, as were you, and had no choice in the matter. Many of us went right, and many went left. I think it would help if you saw us as human, as any other generation has been and will be.
Now, I will say this: The Boomer generation is a real phenomenon. That there are so many of us is no fault of ours, but the fact that we are here presents us with a problem: There are too many of us and not enough of you to support us. No fault of ours, or yours - just the way it played out. We have and are putting a huge stress on the system.
Now, to my fellow Boomers: Robert Reich is a great guy and I like what he says, but he’s missing the elephant in the living room. As others have alluded to, and what I just alluded to, is that there are too many Boomers and not enough others. There is also the slight problem of the war and credit fiasco. The real problem is that we will be lucky to have any social security, no matter how it’s funded. This is a serious problem and one which the government most likely won’t be able to fix. Maybe some, but not much.
So…it’s up to us, fellow Boomers. elmysterio is right in one way - we’ve had a pretty good ride. We’ve worked hard and played hard (maybe too hard) and now it’s time to power down. It’s time to suck it in and suck it up because lean times are ahead. We had better learn how to do with less or do without because those are our choices. Learn (if you haven’t already) how do live lightly and cheaply and share what you know. The time for getting is over. It’s time to give.
The stock market exists so that periodically the rich can clean out the middle class. Why, it’s almost cyclic.
roncypert:
The government has absolutely no idea how its going to repay the SS trust fund for 40 years of unified budget. It was a mess even before the Dubya tax cut and print funny money administration.
On paper, medicare goes bankrupt first as the boomers retire, then social security, but there is no real money to even cover the assets on paper now.
One forgets in a Democracy one can vote oneself a raise,
Populism may not be a dirty word after all,,,,VOTE out the debt
the Golden age of Atherns did not start until all debts were cancelled and the slaves were free, of course in our times freedom from debt might be a good start, the FEUDAL Corpirate Banks and our 1% owners might not like it, but hey that’s the price you pay for a democracy,, where the majority rule not the majority of filthy Lucre,(hypocrisy of christian spouters), the question remains why do some people think they are worth so much more than the rest???????, and why don’t the Media Mouths, politicians and 1%’ers try living on Social Insecureity, it’s *ucked up alright, until we realize the chains of slavery are ours to cut, and if they think the Pratorian guard will back them, they better pay them a lot more, Look to the Ant and see how we are ruled…retarded, people we are dancing madly backwards
When push comes to shove there IS a fix for social security. It isn’t privatization and I believe economist Paul Krugman laid it all out several years ago, yes, I found it:
“Inventing a Crisis”
By Paul Krugman
The New York Times
Tuesday 07 December 2004
Of course it involves the reality of a small tax increase, and raising the cap limit, but not substantially (I believe the contribution had to go up about 1.5% and the cap to $150,000). All in all it amounts to a meager 0.54 percent of GDP to keep the system paying the same promised benefits until the 22nd century. Consider this from the article:
“That’s less than 3 percent of federal spending - less than we’re currently spending in Iraq. And it’s only about one-quarter of the revenue lost each year because of President Bush’s tax cuts - roughly equal to the fraction of those cuts that goes to people with incomes over $500,000 a year.”
Now where’s the CRISIS folks? The problem is the wealthy refuse to help the less fortunate. That’s scandalous & shameful, but that’s the karma they have to deal with while crying ‘have mercy’ from the pits of hell.
Bankrupting the country
solves (defunds) the entitlement
“give aways” programs the repigs
hate so much.
President McCain will privatize social security, don’t worry.
Or you think Amerikkka will have a black president? Or a woman, even if both are bought and paid for corporate mobsters? Fat chance.
SHORT LIST FOR SHRINKING MEMORIES
This one’s for you boomers. No, this is not an appeal to generational pride, it’s just a simple observation that you are the pig in the demographical python that currently has the most power and influence. I could praise you for the good you have done, but then I would have to point out your failings as well. Let’s skip to the chase. It’s legacy time. What sort of world will you leave behind? It’s truly up to you now. You are the grown-ups. Your parents are too old and your kids are too pre-occupied with their own immediate needs. You don’t have much time left and you must act now. These are the three areas that require your immediate attention:
No Nukes. We need to get rid of them once and for all. The power plants, the weapons, the poisonous by-products, the stuff we shoot into space, all of it. If you had to carefully watch your stove for 200,000 years after using it to boil water for your morning coffee, wouldn’t you find some other way? There is a nuke plant near you that has already demonstrated its unreliability and danger and has or will soon exceed its design age. A hollow corporation will attempt to get a license from your government to allow its continued use. You must thwart that attempt and shut it down. Use your mind and your body to do that. You can do it carefully and take some time, but not too much time. The same is true for the weapons. We have too many. We can lead by example. Make first use of these weapons a crime and hold your leaders accountable. Demand that orbital space be free of weapons.
Peace. Can’t have it while we do the militarism thing. Stop it. I know you were raised on WWII propaganda movies, but the idea that a hammer is the right tool for every job became obsolete on a desert in New Mexico in July of 1945. As awful as wars had been previously, atomic weapons really gave human life the power to destroy itself for the first time. In the long run, there can be no monopoly on any kind of knowledge. What goes around comes around. Overcome your fear. Demand that your leaders find another way. Tell your children and their friends that there is no honor in killing and that the desire of corporations to externalize costs has nothing to do with defense of home and family. Deny access by military recruiters to your young.
Justice. Know that money was not created by God. It is an agreement between humans. To the extent that an agreement operates unfairly, it’s up to us humans to make it right. The extent to which a race, ethnic or religious group, language group or social class falls behind another is the precise measure of injustice in the operation of that agreement. The genome may already be too narrow for our survival. We will need all the humans. Demand justice and set about to make it whenever and however you can, and not only for yourself and those closest to you, but for all, everywhere.
Well, that’s it! Just those three things to remember! Let’s see how you do and we’ll check in soon! By the way, be sure to assist and learn from older people and younger people. It’s not all about us! Yours in peace and justice in a nuclear-free world!
Nate W - I’d say Porn is the largest industry there is, and everyone running the show probably has big bucks invested.
Amen, flyerman, but I’d be a little more inclusive than that: This one’s for you, humanity. We all leave a legacy. Youth’s preoccupation is no excuse (mine included, though at nearly 40 I don’t feel “youthful” every day) and the demographical pig in the python of the greatest power (sweet! unintended alliteration!) is a group whose age is merely coincidental.
FLYERMAN: Inspired post!
Real challenge will be seeing how people living on peanuts will be able to afford Part B medicare, and all the other levies we will have to meet.
I agree with frank1569:
“The best thing not to happen during the illegal CheneyBush administration is that NO ONE GOT NUKED.
Yet.”
Every morning I wak up with a feeling of dread. I walk immdiately to my computer and open up the Internet; always half expecting to see that Bush and gang have nuked Iran.
I have noticd that over the last few years, I have become increasingly gloomy and neurotic. I believe that the Bush presiency is, in part, to blame. I no longer feel safe in my own home. I speak out with reluctance and fear on a variety of issues.
I took my freedom for granted and now that it’s slipping away (that might be putting it mildly), I am feeling totally hopeless and overwhelmed. I’m not going to lie and put on a brave face. I am afraid.
Here’s the kicker: I don’t even live in America. I live in Canada. I guess that should illustrate the depth of feeling about what is happening in America and the rest of the world. I have a ver real fear that at some point, the U.S. governemnt will simply march accross our border and seize the Alberta oil sands and say, “So? What are you gonna do about it?” And this makes me very nervous:
http://www.canadians.org/integratethis/
I have been asking moy Government for a copy of the secret Civil Assisatnce Plan signed between generals from Canada and the U.S. At first, they sent me a form letter which avoided the question. When I pushed the issue, they simply ignored me. They will not even giveme a yes or no answer. Actually, the asked for my phone number! If you want to see the emails, let me know. Google Civil Assisatnce Plan and see what you think. I have field an Acess to Information request to try and get it from my Gov. but I thin the chances are slim.
Take care and much love to you my friends.
frank1569 & collateral, I expect the nuke mentioned will be the “October Surprise”, and likely in a mid-sized mid-western city pretty far removed from major population centers so as not to disrupt financial considerations too much. I doubt it will happen in any of the larger cities, or one with one of the 12 non-Federal Reserve banks.
Thank you, flyerman. I’m trying.
Another thing that hasn’t happened in the Bush Administration: despite the verbal abuse concerning abortion (on both sides), this administration has not gotten rid of it. Yes, there are more restrictions. Hmmm. This seems to confirm a suspicion I’ve always had: abortion IS the shell game of the patriarchy. With all that porn, you know…
RE: frank1569 April 29th, 2008 5:39 pm
“Allow me to disagree:
The best thing not to happen during the illegal CheneyBush administration is that NO ONE GOT NUKED.
Yet.”
Actually, frank1569, while no one has gotten blown up in a nuclear explosion …yet…we have been ‘nuked’ by the current administration. Check this link:
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080512/parenti
“”…a shockingly blunt NRC document called “Report on Spent Fuel Pool Accident Risk,” or NUREG-1738. The report found that containment structures, such as that at Vermont Yankee, “present no substantial obstacle to aircraft penetration.” According to the NRC, a fire in the spent fuel pool at a reactor like Vermont Yankee (which stores 488 metric tons of spent fuel) would cause 25,000 fatalities over a distance of 500 miles if evacuation was 95 percent effective. But that evacuation rate would be almost impossible to achieve. The NRC claims to have the threat of terrorism under control, but for reasons of national security it can’t explain how.”
April 30, 2008 by The Independent/UK
Climate Change Could Force 1 Billion From Their Homes by 2050
by Nigel Morris
As many as one billion people could lose their homes by 2050 because of the devastating impact of global warming, scientists and political leaders will be warned today.
They will hear that the steady rise in temperatures across the planet could trigger mass migration on unprecedented levels.
Hundreds of millions could be forced to go on the move because of water shortages and crop failures in most of Africa, as well as in central and southern Asia and South America, the conference in London will be told. There could also be an effect on levels of starvation and on food prices as agriculture struggles to cope with growing demand in increasingly arid conditions.
Rising sea levels could also cause havoc, with coastal communities in southern Asia, the Far East, the south Pacific islands and the Caribbean seeing their homes submerged.
North and west Africans could head towards Europe, while the southern border of the United States could come under renewed pressure from Central America.
The conference will hear a warning from the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) that the developed world should start preparing for a huge movement of people caused by climate change.
The event, which is being organised by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR), will also be addressed by a Kenyan farmer and a United Nations worker based in Sudan. They will give first-hand accounts of previously fertile land that has already become parched in recent years as the desert spreads.
Craig Johnstone, the UNHCR deputy high commissioner, said yesterday that humanity faced a “global-scale emergency” whose effects would accumulate over the next four decades. He said it was impossible to forecast with confidence the numbers of people who would lose their homes through climate change. But he pointed to assessments of between 250 million and one billion people losing their homes by 2050. He said: “This will be a global-scale emergency, but … it will take place gradually and over a long period of time.”
Mr Johnstone rejected the suggestion that the industrialised West should shoulder the burden because it was to blame for much of climate change. But he said: “It’s the obligation of the people who have the means to be helpful to help. They have an obligation to humanity to help.”
He said the UNHCR already assisted in natural disasters such as earthquakes and the Asian tsunami of 2004 and added: “Perhaps even more challenging and more inevitable are the consequences of global changes.”
Currently the status of refugees - defined as people escaping personal persecution by the state - is controlled by the Geneva Convention of 1951. The agreement, however, would not cover people who become homeless, or even stateless, because of changes to global weather patterns.
Pressure is therefore growing for the international community to reach a formal consensus on ways of dealing with the issue. Mr Johnstone said: “We’re strongly in favour of there being adequate international mechanisms to cope.”
Danny Sriskandarajah, head of migration at the IPPR, said: “The displacement of millions of people will be one of the most dramatic ways in which climate change will affect humankind.”
Hilary Benn, the Environment Secretary, said a global agreement must be reached. “Climate change is the most serious long-term threat to development in poor countries, and if unchecked millions of people may be forced to migrate to escape the effects of drought, flooding, food shortages and rising sea levels,” he said.
© 2008 The Independent
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12 Comments so far
civil behavior April 30th, 2008 1:21 pm
Katrina…………
misanthrope April 30th, 2008 1:31 pm
“Craig Johnstone, the UNHCR deputy high commissioner, said yesterday that humanity faced a “global-scale emergency” whose effects would accumulate over the next four decades. He said it was impossible to forecast with confidence the numbers of people who would lose their homes through climate change. But he pointed to assessments of between 250 million and one billion people losing their homes by 2050. He said: “This will be a global-scale emergency, but … it will take place gradually and over a long period of time.” - One might have thought that the same could have been said for the growing wave of food shortages. However, economic factors appear to have amplified the fear factor and contributed to the politicalization of the problem. The same can be expected of the rising spectre of forced migration; border disputes, refugee camps (as in Darfur), panic caused by fear of epidemic, etc.. Expect the worst, and sooner.
Parallax April 30th, 2008 3:50 pm
With the anticipated increase of the world’s population to 9 billion by 2050, I suspect that the figure of 1 billion being forced from their homes is a gross underestimate.
One child per family, worldwide, starting now would decrease the global population by over a billion by 2050 and the rate of decrease would be accelerating rapidly by then. As the level of sustainability was approached, families of two or three children could then become the norm.
Humanity has to make the choice of controlling its own fertility or suffering all the perils that nature has in store for it. A smaller population would alleviate all of the major problems that we are facing.
hedology April 30th, 2008 4:23 pm
The developed world will not be able to help very much those billion people affected by rising sea levels and other effects of global warming. The developed world will have its own shortages of food, water and arable land. A lot of agricultural production from low lying third world nations used to support the developed world will have ceased. Tropical diseases will have encroached into higher latitudes. What has not been destroyed by normal operations of developed society will be destroyed by warfare , gangs and riots. At some stage the rate of population loss from disasters will exceed that of births and a world population decline will ensue. Other species not considered useful for human survival, or not capable of co-existing in the human environment, or those that were hunted for food, will be all gone. Welcome to easter island world, post apocalpyse, where uncivilized remnants of the last of human kind fight and scrounge around for existence in a depleted and harsh world. Will they last for the hundreds of thousands of years necessary for the greenhouse gases to leave the atmosphere, if it still can heal? What will they devolve into?
Supreme Heretic April 30th, 2008 4:40 pm
They will devolve into Christian Republicans, of course.
PaulK April 30th, 2008 5:22 pm
Katrina and her 39 foot storm surge illustrate the real problem with ocean levels. It’s not the three millimeters a year that are killing New Orleans this decade. It’s the extra half a foot a year in maximum storm surge height, owing to increased wind strength, that will ruin your waterfront home. How would you like to join the unlucky one billion and live in a football stadium or in a formaldehyde-poisoned FEMA trailer? The wind taking your roof off won’t help one bit. Nor will the extra power in the tornadoes for you folks living inland.
So, how high is your particular city’s hurricane barrier? No foolin?
Doom n Gloom April 30th, 2008 10:17 pm
The architecture of change is not in place and therefore the world will not act effectively. The “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it” crowd is still in power despite twenty five years of research into change architecture. The Presidency is a Fascist throwback, the Congress has petrified, and most citizens remain ill informed and do not act until it is too late. Mankind is failing badly.
guliper May 1st, 2008 9:36 am
Buy land in the mountains; Colorado, Montana, Yukon.
RuthK May 1st, 2008 10:18 am
Nothing was said about the Himalayan glaciers. They are also thinning rapidly. They provide water for 6 major rivers for China, India, and southeast Asia. As they glaciers melt, there will be floods followed by extreme drought with no drinking water. This will effect several billion people. The oil wars may be nothing compared to the water wars.
Also, most articles seem to think of climate change as gradual. This is true up to a point. But some of those huge blocks of ice are not going to slowly drip themselves to death. They are going to cause sudden, terrible catasthophes. Our local public library has a book “With Speed and Violence”. It is frightening.
mmmoongoddess May 1st, 2008 11:56 am
Thanks for the book reference, Ruth. The world is about the experience the wrath of Gaia and it’s us in the so-called “developed world” who are most to blame for the excesses that have led to our current sad state of affairs.
Yes, the corporate mass media and governments are woefully understating the gravity of our situation. Who’s going to worry about the environment when there’s a “world wide food crisis” that, in large part, is the creation of food commodification and futures speculation. It’s all about greed, pure and simple. Agribusiness and oil corps all gleefully go to the bank while Gaia, and her population, burn.
We need to look at these realities head on without blinking and without sentimentality ALL THE WHILE working to create vibrant, local, joyful, self-sustaining ecologically conscious communities. What I’m calling for is RADICAL INTERDEPENDENCE. We need each other now more than ever and we need to wake up our mass media/NPR anesthetized and lobotomized friends. What we’re facing will make the depression look like a cake walk. But we can, and must, face it together.
Yes, the U.S. bears an unbelievable amount of culpability and karmic debt for the world’s current situation, and we need to continually speak up about it. However, change and support must begin at home: in our neighborhoods and communities and with our ‘tribes’ and ‘families of choice’. We need to make the U.S. government irrelevant and create the world we wish to see right here and now where each of us live.
kahalab May 1st, 2008 6:35 pm
There is a real obvious trend here. They always underestimate the speed and scale at which the warming of the global will effect life on earth. And the rich 20% of the world’s population that has caused 80% of the problem will never ever ever take it’s 80% of the responsibility (or even acknowledge it).
If you want to see how the world will look in the future, just head to someplace like San Paulo in Brazil where the slums stretch on endlessly with few resources and fewer rights and the rich not only have gated mansions with armed guards, but entire gated parks with armed guards - right in the middle of the city where no other parks can be found.
Will the global Mafia of the rich and powerful be able to stem the tides of billions (notice the s at the end) of refuges? Why do you think they are developing all those ultra extreme crowd control weapons. Tear gas, pepper spray, rubber bullets and tazers are children’s toys compared to what they’ve already developed and are working on developing. Is there any hope for humanity? Perhaps, but not if the billionaires and their lackies continue to rule the world.
ike kay May 1st, 2008 7:06 pm
These issues written above are exemplified by the corporate greed and the Western worlds need to have it all. The American presidential contest in microcosm is writ large on the human factors that support the below text. The media talks about Rev. Wright who has lived and experienced the text below and has seen first hand the human disaster of displaced people.
Clinton once again shows her irresponsible thinking at any price to gain the American nomination to be able to continue to lead the world to oblivion. I read with interest the comments of Americans here as in other blogs. I consider myself a humanist and not one that has the USA tattooed to my backside, although I gave three years to the military and so have a right to speak. Nationalism, is always based in me-firstism, let the rest of the world be damned mentality. IT IS NOT ONLY ABOUT CLINTON AND THIS PROPAGANDIST, O’REALLY; Ii is about the very fabric of the USA, its people and the change necessary.
The economic system that determines all peoples survival regardless of where they exist, also determines what a country will become, much of it the result of chance. In that regard the USA has been lucky, with well-worn imperialist ideas brought over with the Pilgrims. America has taken this country from the people whom were here before, the European model, used by the pilgrims, stripping them of their land without paying them. Some of us here know the story. The so-called, “free market market system”, formerly American capitalism, and now globalization into which it has now morphed continues these same policies. The US with its European allies has created the current means of controlling everything for the few. The G 8 has developed ever-greater means to develop these ideas and to take what it wants from the rest of the world and its own populations.
The African Americans, the Africans, the Hispanics, Asians and Indians have been the slave classes have built the white European and American wealth. The historic exploitation of the working classes of America brought from the entire world into its “melting pot” with the so-called freedoms and democratic ideals built from the blood spilled to form in all proceeding generations. Compared with European monarchies and divine kingship, so-called Democracy was unique in the world. It once held promise to give humanity a system to live with harmoniously The freedoms bought so dearly, from “Divine Kingship” gave birth to the new kings the “Robber Barons” and now, corporate power elitism.
To keep the masses mollified and to build the lives of Americans so they believed this to be human progress, consumer ideology supplanted education - the study human purpose- and became a goal in itself. The economic forces, which have built their power from this conditioning aided with advertising and media, care little for human development and survival. They care largely for their continued power as an end in itself- to continue for the few there lust for wealth and power with a huge military force, hence the oil wars in Iraq. All this to support an auto centered disposable consumer society.
The expense of privilege in the community of nations may become the death of the globe and its entire people as a result of the American and European economic system, now out of control. Many American economists, Jeffrey Sachs, Joe Stiglitz, and others view these historical developments as a threat to global harmony and survival.
American wealth once had an altruistic quality about it. The post-World War II USA developed the Marshal Plan and cared about the condition of the world. Now the top one percent, those who have taken so much, continue to be supported by the thirty percent of Americans who still believe George Bush, and his myth of global superiority at the expense of the rest of the world. It is clear that to many of Clinton’s opinions continue the Bush doctrine, of unilateralism and tokenism.
We sit on the edge of an environmental and economic disaster. The American system is out of control and the economic meltdown will continue regardless of who occupies the Oval office. The only difference is exists within the Obama campaign. He is intelligent enough to know that there are fundamental change needed in the way America and the so-called “free world” do business.
Rev Wright, addresses continued black slavery in a world of exploitation of all people led by the US and now the power elite of the G8 in collusion with governments to continue the “American Dream” mentality, represented now by corporate multilateralism and their continued wealth and power. Corporate elitism cares for itself alone at the expense of all people, and the environment, the human experiment, its freedoms, and so called democratic ideals, which has become nothing more than an oligarchy.
We should not be too pejorative about Rev Wright who simply rails against the exploitive aspects of the Western mentality and points out the deficiency in the USA of having evolved thinking toward the slave classes and the human species. The Rev. Wright, having been able to experience directly because of his skin color, these abuses is perhaps too angry which limits his effectiveness. His experience and intelligence in seeing the wreckage of black America, has caused him to take up the defense of the disenfranchised.
America has a history of caring about others, once a genuine American direction, led by people, despite their failings like: The Kennedy’s, Martin Luther King, Malcolm X and so many others who died for their belief in a better America and a better world, and caring about humanity.
The media carries their continued assault against those, who would in any way, attempt to bring different thinking to bear on the so called “American Dream” which has become the world’s nightmare must be seen by the masses for what it has become. The media must begin to understand its roll as an objective commentator to the necessary changes that must be made to the USA and the world if humanity is to survive.
The media above all must be changed once again to give democratic exposure to all-important ideas. The media must present an understanding of the complex thought necessary to be brought to bear on global complex issues of survival. A departure is required from the simplistic superficial treatment ad-nauseam we witness each day, which passes for news presented by the Barby-Doll class of newsreader called journalist.