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The Great Jobs Depression Worsens, and the Choice Ahead Grows Starker
The Great Jobs Depression continues to worsen.
A job seeker checks for new jobs postings at the Glendale Workforce Services Center Thursday, Aug. 19, 2010, in Glendale, Calif. Employers appear to be laying off workers again as the economic recovery weakens. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits reached the half-million mark last week for the first time since November. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes) The Labor Department reports this morning that companies created ony 67,000 new jobs in August. That's down from the 107,000 they created in July. And because the government laid off temporary Census workers, the economy as a whole lost 54,000 jobs.
To put this into perspective, we need 125,000 net new jobs a month just to keep up with the growth of the population and the potential workforce.
Think of it this way. The number of Americans willing and able to work but who cannot find a job hasn't stopped growing since the start of 2008. All told, about 22 million Americans are now jobless. Add in those who are working part-time who'd rather be working full time, and we're up to 25 million.
And because most families depend on two paychecks, the practical impact is almost double.
All this has a negative multiplier on the economy. If families can't pay their bills, their mortgages become delinquent (that's why mortgage delinquencies keep rising), their credit card bills go unpaid (we're seeing a notable rise in credit card defaults), and they can't afford to buy anything other than necessities (hence auto sales have plummeted, new homes sales are down, and retail sales are in the pits).
As a result, more and more businesses decide to lay off workers (or refrain from adding them) because they can't sell the goods and services they produce.
The last time we saw anything on this scale was in the 1930s. The last time we did anything about this on the scale necessary to reverse the trend was in the 1930s and 1940s.
It is not that America is out of ideas. We know what to do. We need massive public spending on jobs (infrastructure, schools, parks, a new WPA) along with measures to widen the circle of prosperity so more Americans can share in the gains of growth (exempting the first $20K of income from payroll taxes and applying the payroll tax to incomes over $250K, for example).
The problem is lack of political will to do it. The naysayers, deficit hawks, government-haters and Social Darwinists who don't have a clue what to do would rather do nothing. We are paralyzed.
If there was ever a time for bold government action it is precisely now. Obama should be storming the country, demanding the largest responses to the jobs emergency in history. He and the Dems should be giving Republicans hell for their indifference to all this.
Instead, Obama is all over the map -- a mosque controversy, an Israeli-Palestinian peace talk (that may take years to complete if ever), a symbolic withdrawal from Iraq, and lots of little tax-cutting ideas.
Senate and House Democrats, meanwhile, are on the defensive. Polls even suggest Dems may lose the House and possibly even the Senate in November.
Business leaders have either gone silent or gone reactionary, as they did in the 1930s.
But the pain and suffering of tens of millions continue. Government revenues continue to drop, and the safety nets and public services they rely on are subject to even more cuts.
Ever wonder why the nation is turning isolationist and xenophobic? Why we're lashing out at undocumented immigrants, even though fewer are here now than a few years ago; why the rise of anti-Islam feeling now, although 9/11 was nine years ago? Why the virulence and hate-mongering on right-wing radio, and the surliness in the blogosphere?
The practical choice we face is this: Either major action to reverse the jobs emergency or years of intolerably high unemployment coupled with demagoguery and scapegoating.



117 Comments so far
Show AllWho's gonna feel the pain? Only the millions who suffer. The Internet and mainstream media would have to close for good before enough people woulda figured it all out.
Turn off the pacifiers internet/MSM and the sheeple would be out in the street in less than a day, Blood in their eyes looking for a politician to string up.. Just like in the good old days.
Today if we don't like the news we just switch over to American Idol, or run some porn up on the interwebz.
>^^<
"Turn off the pacifiers internet/MSM and the sheeple would be out in the street in less than a day, Blood in their eyes looking for a politician to string up.. Just like in the good old days."
I definitely agree.
"Today if we don't like the news we just switch over to American Idol, or run some porn up on the interwebz."
They didn't set up hundreds of useless channels for nothing. The Internet is already on its way to privatization so that'll stay so.
You turn off my Net, you-all may have to march out through the desert and knock on my door.
I remember some fairly old days. And a lot of us just. didn't. know.
"If there was ever a time for bold government action it is precisely now. Obama should be storming the country, demanding the largest responses to the jobs emergency in history. He and the Dems should be giving Republicans hell for their indifference to all this."
At this point in the article my eyes glaze. Here is yet another so called liberal who is waiting for Barry to do the right thing.
When will Robert Reich and the rest of the Obamabots wake up to the stark reality that they have been suckered by a smooth-talking snake-oil salesman. He took your money and your vote, but he didn't (and will not) deliver the goods.
Obummers looking at the next, Corporate sector bailout to issue. He is their tool after all.
I just came from the MSM and their prattle; calling Obomber a liberial and a socialist.
By the gods if bummer was a liberial maybe he'd do something for the people, free health care. stiffen SSI, up th UI rates.. and the sheeple would freekin love him!
>^^<
Reich's statement you quoted in no way stated or implied implied "waiting for Barry to do the right thing". It merely stated that bold government action is needed, without any mention of an expectation of such an action. Do you agree with this or not?
I agree with Robert Reich. And I don't feel I've been bamboozled by President Obama. I just think he was left with a friggin' mess, in the U.S. and overseas. That's why he's "all over the place"! Pres. G. W. Bush opened Pandora's Box in the Middle East with the War in Iraq. Who knows? Maybe HE was the "anti-Christ" they all talk about. And Vice-Pres. Cheney - Talk about a "snake-oil salesman"! Have you all forgotten the Halliburton scandals? I'm sure they've figured out a way to get the Iraqi oil (or at least a good percentage of it) from the Iraqi people inspite of all the bru-ha-ha that went on about it belonging to the Iraqis. We certainly don't know all the dirty little secrets, and no matter how diligent our news reporters, they can't get privy to the info.
don't get me started..
And Obama gave hundred$$ of billion$$ to the bankster$$ with no strings attached.
Just a "request" not to screw the taxpayers, homeowners and credit card holders.
(But they are offering 1% interest on a 2 year savings CD!)
I'm there ThinKing - and ready to throw the first rock!
I liked Mr. Reich's article the first time I read written 18hrs ago by Brits in the Guardian newspaper.
A nice article about their ideas as to why Americans can't get off their rears and fix things,, like we've done in te past.
>^^<
I'm sure you are talking about the OIL that was suppose to pay for the war!!!
Great analysis--I agree with every word!
But don't be so hard on Robert Reich. I don't think he's at all blind to Obama the neo-liberal; he's just being gracious as befits his CV. His piece in yesterday's
NY Times was terrific, and the #1 e-mailed article; too bad the 'liberal' Times didn't allow comments.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/03/opinion/03reich.html?src=me&ref=homepage
Exactly... He bailed out wall street. He gave the MIC time to get even wealthier... This ship is going down.
I'm thinking 10yrs, when the guys first suggested NAFTA and removing Glass-Steegal they should have been draged out front and publicly gutted for national TV, as a warning to people who try to sabotage our economy using the government.
They knew this would happen 35yrs ago, when this globalisation crap first came up!
>^^<
Exactly, I remember all of these things being mentioned when I was economics class in college in 1980 during a discussion on the long term costs of Reganomics.
Please read Waldon Bello:"Can you say ,FASCISM? The political consequences of stagnation"
On todays Commondreams 9/3
They are repaving Freedom Blvd. today.
Seriously, I live in Freedom California, and CalTrans is finally fixing one of the local major roads, with stimulus funding from the federal government. Must have been close to a hundred crew people working. This road also passes through mostly apple orchards, that are now ready to start picking with help from thousands of local and some migrant farm workers throughout the valley. Same for the berry fields, and organic farms and gardens. Building is kind of slow, but there are way too many houses anyway. Maybe, other parts of the country will start to see some improvement soon. We may be only a small exception here, but it's not quite a gloom and doom depression as it's made out to be everywhere else in the media. (Well...... unless you live in Detroit).
Just remember - you can't eat gold.
Gold is selling for over $1200 an ounce. It was $250 an ounce in 2001. Yes... You can sell gold, get money, and buy food.
When King George Bush the First was in office the buy gold fanitics were predicting that the first gulf war would be a quagmire so gold went up. Then he backed down and gold went down again.
His idiot son George the Second finally made all those gold bugs so happy.
I wonder how much mining stock Dick Cheney is holding?
Only to sheeple who value gold... Me I value a meal much more :)
>^^<
Yes, but high gold price is an indicator of lack of confidence in government.
After 9/11 the rich took their money out of the stock market and put it in real estate. Speculators propped up the stock market again. Hence, the Bubble.
Then when that peaked and crashed the rich invested in their last hope - gold.
Many of the people who got tax credits for first homes are the children of the wealthy. Little Richie Rich can buy a house instead of getting a dorm room at college. Those who already own second homes get tax breaks too. Now the banks are offering stock to online banking customers - just click and buy – no broker necessary. Offering the “little people” a chance at the stock market just like the banksters did with their O% down stated income loans a few years ago. Scary stuff!
True, very good!
We ran a perfectly legal pyramid scheme based on the overinflated book value of my moms house, then took a refi on my house, and split the difference for my sisters. All legal, she bought her house for $35,000 in "82 then the banksters pushed the value to $289.000 who are we to argue? now we pay less than rent for a home.
All valued less than $100K
You keep learning and watching, and take any oppertunity to help your own.
>^^<
Yes! Live and learn!
I saw the bubble that happened in the east coast in the late 1980s and the Wall Street crimes and savings and loan catastrophe that went with it - During the reign of King George the First. It was perfect Ponzi scheme.
The same thing was happening after 9/11 with the "flip this home" shenanigans, but this time the entire country was involved.
I quickly sold my home in 2006 and bought a shack.
My former home just sold for 50,000 less than I sold it for four years ago.
This is what I learned when my mother lost everything in 1990 because of these financial criminals. Its the same people.
What a great place for u. good info.
Public works programs, state banks, sovereign currencies are solutions: The blame game is easy, but it's over and now let's get to work!
Nah.
It is Labor Day.
Holding criminals accountable is not a game.
Economies have to be based on something, Gold, Kilowatt Hrs, Uranium. otherwise the ones controlling the presses can just keep printing more and more until even the fiat value is zero.
I remember a fun article during the 70s recession that suggested minting our coins in depleated uranium that way people would be more likely to spend to get rid of it, Who would hoard a lot of moderatly radioactive money?. You could tell the rich by their amputated hands (radation poisioning) and their visible cancers :)
>^^<
A plot worthy of Goldfinger!
"And because most families depend on two paychecks, the practical impact is almost double"
The facts are that, with the people's better interests in mind, a large chunk of USans' economic exchange today is unnecessary, and another large chunk is overpriced. So the elitevil economy hitting the skids certainly does NOT automatically call for economic stimuli of the status quo sort, but rather calls for a radical restructuring of the economy guided by the VISIBLE HAND of the people's better interests.
USans are caught, by elitevil, between a "rock and a hard place". On the one side USans are pushed by elitevil marketeering to consume/plunder materials/energy at four times the world average rate. While on the other side USans are enslaved by elitevil to pay grossly inflated prices for most everything, including education, healthcare, shelter and transport. And this doesn't even include the "externalized" costs paid.
So when liberals harp, and boy are they harping today, about economic stimuli, we see that they aren't thinking holistically but rather still wearing their blinders, to advance hidden agendas at the people's great expense (and the planet's too).
The liberals seem to be only marginally lesser evil and delusionary than their conservative opponents. Kaka on them both.
The people have a clear plan we know is right and we know will work: We're cutting our economic exchange by 75%, and what remains we'll exchange with our local small-scale farmers, craftsmen and merchants. We'll get best value this way, meaning work weeks reduced to 15 hours, and great economic stability, sustainability, maximum peace, and health.
You had to know this socity was sick when an honest person couldn't support a family on one job.. Long before it became expected that the kids required laptop computers in grade school, and had to have iphones in preschool,
America is simply sick
>^^<
It will do no good to throw another trillion of 'stimulus' taxpayer money to try and revive a dead economy. A government works program will last only as long as the government pays for it with borrowed money. The last time we tried that, about a year ago, it kept some people in their jobs for awhile, and now many of them are collecting unemployment. It bailed out crooked bankers, who promptly gave themselves billions in bonuses. The trilion should have been spent bringing the manufacturing and information technology jobs back to America. The millions of off-shored workers would bring billions in spending back to America. I guess the CEOs who off-shored jobs in order to get quick profits and justify their inflated salaries and bonuses didn't really think of that - or didn't care.
yakijy:
"The trilion should have been spent bringing the manufacturing and information technology jobs back to America. The millions of off-shored workers would bring billions in spending back to America."
This would be nice, at least for USians, but it's really not very realistic. With wage rates overseas at about 15 cents on the dollar, what sort of incentive or coercion would be necessary to make this happen?
China attracted manufacturing by offering free land, free utilities hook up, no taxes for 6 years, half off for the next 6 years. They subsidized manufacturing. We subsidized finance and military. They have jobs. We get fleeced by bankers and endless war. We are getting just what we deserved. If we didn't have to support this gicantic military and the parasitical banks we could compete just fine in manufacturing.
I agree that the Bush admin has tanked this economy 3 ways; by spending over a trillion dollars for useless wars, allowing his 'base' the rich corporate bank crooks to rape the American people, and by giving huge tax incentives and no downside to corporations who wanted to replace American workers with cheap foreign labor. Obama continues the massive war fraud, and is truly a do-nothing president.
For one thing, the tax incentives to business make it extremely profitable to replace American workers with off-shored workers. A VP at United Healthcare told me last year that the cost advantage in I.T. was 3 to 1. I'm sure that towards the beginning of the trend, it was much greater. The government has to tax the foreign worker on a comparable wage level as the American counterpart, plus pay an extra outsourcing tax. This would remove a large portion of the tax advantage - probably reducing it to 2 to 1, at which time the American worker looks a lot more attractive.
Only lend to Credit Unions that serve no more than three states. None for the international banksters. They just put it in their own pockets, they proved that.
Also we need to get midevil with taxs.. 90% capital gains, 90% on bounus's 90% top marginal tax rate. and lets modernize the code a bit no tax taken till you make $35,000 at least, single $45,000 married.
>^^<
The economists should be shunned. Forget Reich and the others. We are beyond words and beyond economic theory. The hardship is upon working people and they alone. They will suffer the brutal consequences of failed economic policy. They will bear the daily and long term struggle to exist cast upon them by the greed of the wealthy, while at the same time, be blamed exclusively for their demise. They will become the punching bags of the rich and the doormats of politicians. They will be drubbed and scared. They will see or feel no mercy. They will live hell on earth. They will be the lucky ones.
So who are the unlucky ones? Cuz I sure as he11 don't feel lucky and I am officially at the bottom rung, one step away from homelessness. Battered and bruised and panicked with nowhere to turn.
The unlucky ones will be the oligarchs and pols. When there is no one else to feed on, history demonstrates that they begin to feed upon themselves. They will live in a world of fear and violence both from their peers and from the unemployed and displaced. Heads will roll.
Do any of you happen to have a good Head Cheese recipe?
That's what said when Arnold restored the 3 day Furloughs, and the union I pay $50 a month to represent me didn't say a word.
My grandmother used to say; "When in danger or in doubt, run in circles, scream and shout"
>^^<
"Business leaders have either gone silent or gone reactionary, as they did in the 1930s."
That statement might be true, but there's more to the problem as well. American corporations have loads of cash on hand, but they won't invest in talent or anything else. I heard it said on one of the cable shows that the total amount of money being held onto by corporations exceeds $1 trillion. The exception is mergers and acquisitions. Corporations are still doing that. many paying cold hard cash for those transactions. They still want to grow their businesses, but they don't want to hire more people to take on the added workload. So God help those who do have jobs with those tightwad corporations. They're being asked to do more and more with less resources, be more productive, but aren't seeing any change in their salaries. "Do more with less," is the catch phrase we hear constantly. the new reality in the world of work. The American workers lose on all fronts, whether they are employed or not.
"American corporations have loads of cash on hand, but they won't invest in talent or anything else."
General Motors, after being bailed out by US taxpayers has decided to build its new Buick Regal in Canada. Thank you, GM. Thank you.
The article speaks of people not being able to pay their mortgages. NO ONE ever addresses the plight of the working class people who rent. These will be the first people thrown out into the streets as they lose their jobs and run out of unemployment insurance. The homeless population in this country is going to explode. The problems we have are, as bad as they may appear in the MSM, much much worse. The media is effectively glossing over real tragedy. If unemployment is not extended beyond 99 weeks there will be much violence in the streets by this time next year. The true unemployment rate is already well over 20%, and probably over 25%. Once you run out of unemployment benefits you are no longer unemployed. Catch 22.
The problems are systemic and will not be solved by politicians working hand in hand with BIG MONEY -- the federal reserve/banking/fractional reserve banking system. The FED prints money out of thin air and loans it to the government at interest. The government sells bonds to cover the borrowing. The taxpayers are being raped to the tune of over 500 billion dollars a year in interest alone. The MIC produces nothing but machinery to be used up in war. They love war. They need war. There is no physical or fiscal return on investment when borrowed money is spent on war. It is money down the drain, money that could be used for national health care, social security and infrastructure improvements. It is money that might as well be simply burned.
The FED, and the whole current financial system is at fault and though it needs a severe revamp this will not happen for political corrupt reasons. The government could simply issue its own interest free money to be used for infrastructure improvements, like an efficient nation wide rail transportation system for instance. The money would be backed by the finished products which would facilitate further economic development.
The real downhill slide started with the creation of central banks which are designed to purposely rape taxpayers of all countries and to build their own power. NOW, they are enormously powerful and call all the shots. They finance both sides of all wars. We are being raped. Raped. Nothing will change as long as the central bankers and commercial and "investment banks" have politicians in their pockets.
There are solutions but they are illegal. But, then, lots of things that are legal are not necessarily moral. There will be violence. There will be Bushbamavilles all over the country. They exist now, lots of them, but are not covered by the press. One of them was recently rousted out of existence in Harrisburg PA.
People. It is much much worse out there already than you can imagine. And all we get is hot air out of politicians as the big banks suck us dry.
Without radical change we are screwed, blued and tattooed.
See you under the bridges and in the woods. I'll be the one living in the green tent
and heating a stolen can of beans over a camp fire.
Finis.
dkshaw,
i agree w/ your overall analysis to a 't'.
the crisis is going to accelerate, the media is complicit with corporate america and isn't going to facilitate positive social change. our banking system is corrupt. we deserve a publicly owned central bank that doesn't extract interest at the public's expense.
there were a few quotes that jumped out at me as i read riech's article.
..........
"The last time we saw anything on this scale was in the 1930s. The last time we did anything about this on the scale necessary to reverse the trend was in the 1930s and 1940s."
"The practical choice we face is this: Either major action to reverse the jobs emergency or years of intolerably high unemployment coupled with demagoguery and scapegoating."
..........
and what did we do about it in the 1930's ? is it possible that the military buildup before WWII had something to do with america pulling itself out of the depression. america's leaders will implement more realistic choices than the one's offered by reich.
for example, expanding america's military role around the world. green jobs, repairing infrastructure - yeah, it would be wonderful - a paradise on earth, but realistically it's easier for the elites to use the factories that already exist to perpetuate war. at no point in his article does professor reich acknowledge the drain of war on our psyches or upon our economy.
our leaders have a tradition of relying on military expenditures to pull us out of recessionary times (roosevelt, reagan - to an extent bush) and there is no indication that this administration, or the next administration, or the one after that is going to change course.
reich is all over the map - ignoring the one boogie man in the room 'american empire' manifested through the production of war.
keynesianism my ass....
- - - - - - - -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_Keynesianism
{Germany in the 1930s
The Germany of the 1930s, which rebuilt a crippled economy with enormous military production under a National Socialist government, has been cited as an example of military Keynesianism; however the purpose of the increased German military spending was not to increase economic growth, but to prepare for the war of conquest that Hitler always intended to launch. This example illustrates both the potential positives of such policies – in generating rapid growth - and also the negative social effects presented by critics, since the aim of heightened German military production in the 1930s was preparation for the Second World War.
United States
In the United States, prior to 2009, the only time the deficit rose over 6% of GDP was in or immediately after wartime: the Civil War, World War I, and World War II, with a peak being reached of 30.3% in 1943. Keynesian economists point to the large deficits during WWII as being the cause of the US recovery from the Great Depression, and that prior fiscal stimulus had been insufficient due to opposition to large deficits. That is, military mobilization provided the popular political support for Keynesian stimulus.
In today’s discourse, the term is "Military Keynesianism" is most frequently discussed in relation to the United States, particularly the administration of President Ronald Reagan in the 1980s. Reagan’s administration pushed for significant tax cuts, while increasing military spending to confront the Soviet Union in the Cold War. This was in practice a policy suggestive of military Keynesianism, although Reagan defended it, arguing that military spending was necessary to combat Communism by outspending the Soviet Union. It also coincided with the early 1980s recession, with some arguing that the resulting stimulus helped end the recession.
For many in the United States worried about the adoption of these economic policies, their fears abated somewhat with the reduced military spending of the 1990s which was commonly described as the peace dividend of the end of the Cold War. However, the ongoing War on Terrorism and current Iraq War have increased defense spending beyond the levels of the 1980s.}
- - - - - -
why doesn't reich get past the politeness of the discussion (dems and repubs bickering over this and that) and address this hidden (yet very visible) aspect of our predicament. we must kill/murder and maim others to maintain our empire and put food on our table.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_war_economy
{...The CEO of General Electric and vice-chairman of the War Production Board, Charles Edward Wilson ("Electric Charlie," not to be confused with "Engine Charlie," Charles Erwin Wilson of General Motors) had already argued for the continuation of large scale military spending in a speech at the Twenty-Fifth Anniversary Dinner of the Army Ordnance Association on January 19,1944. Although he did not use the term "Permanent War Economy" he did argue for an institutionalized war economy —ie. a semi-command economy to be directed by corporation executives, based on military industry, and funded by government. Wilson argued for this system for purely military reasons. He did not make any argument for a "military Keynesianism". The term refers to the economic component within the military-industrial complex (MIC) (aka. "the Iron Triangle") whereby the collusion between militarism and war profiteering are manifest as a permanently subsidised industry. Wilson warned at the close of World War II that the US must not return to a civilian economy, but must keep to a "permanent war economy."[2]... }
- - - - - - -
as to revolution and living under a bridge - see ya there...
...peace...
"The practical choice we face is this: Either major action to reverse the jobs emergency or years of intolerably high unemployment coupled with demagoguery and scapegoating."
It won't be the either; so it will be the or. Obama could have nearly total control of the Congress and he still wouldn't do anything meaningful. He's thinking about reelection in '012 and beyond that, how he can become a multimillionaire after leaving office, like Clinton. The rest, as Raymond Chandler once wrote, is "spillikans in the parlor".
Nobody in the Democratic party told Reich to pen this article and then have it appear on CD or anywhere else. The same holds true for people like Eugene Robinson or Ruth Marcus or any other Obama apologist who regularly makes it into print. These people are true believing members of the Democratic party and their mission is to keep alive The Big Lie that the Democrats care about ordinary people and, therefore, deserve your vote. The only thing the Democrats deserve is the back of everyone's hand.
Yes, that's just the plain truth!
power only concedes to the demands of power. We are acting and being powerless by 'waiting' for corporate politicians to do what is never in them.
We have to build huge bottom up workers/middle class movements that demand a change in economics and end to militarism. There is NO other way.
Our school system works so well, even moreso at the university level that most common dreams posters so called progressive etc....actually THINK any sort of democratic or economic rights came from people sitting at home waiting for the next election...and sending off letters.
stop beggin and start demanding.
you can't even discuss a long general strike...cuz you are all on a different planet with a different history.
While the rest of the world knows exactly what to do.
my god.
meanwhile we are , the US military especially(biggest sole user of fuel on the planet), and the ag corporations are BURNING THE PLANET. You think pelosi or barny frank are gonna stop that???????
We can fix that.. Hight tariffs say 100% on imports will force jobs and manufacturing back here, to all new clean plants. Our old manufacturing operations were built in WWII and never cleaned up. If we start over with new factories they can be made cleaner friendlier to people and the enviroment. Demoloish those dinosaurs in the rust belt and start superfund cleanups, which will take decades. (more jobs!)
The reason we have Japenise Auto plants and German Auto plants here is tat in the 80s they were treatened with 50% tariffs for auto imports, Because detroit didn't want to build fuel efficent cars here. So Toyota Datsun/Nissan and VW built plants here joined later by Mercades and Fiat.
No more MEGASHIPS running cars and containers from one side of the ocean to the other!
Raise Teriffs, will bring jobs home! Raise taxs to get the money the rich are hoarding back into circulation!
It will work,, it has before!
>^^<
Otherwise we'll just makeup an enemy and bomb the nations of the world again, like we did in WWII
Jobs depend on real resources and ecosystems. When these cannot be obtained or exploited, locally or by global conquest and trade, the economy collapses.
The world ecosystems are in terminal exhaustion, relative to human demands. Major climate change unstoppable. Runaway climate change causing major extinctions is probable. Our own long term status as a plague species is not assured.
The number one resource has been very cheap oil.
Thats nearly all gone now.
Number two resource has been the efficiency of labor.
All the factories and money go to the cheapest labor.
There is a large number of Eurasian competitors, with globalisation.
Whatever the state of economies, US competitors are converting the worlds resources into economic products cheaper and faster than the USA. The competition is intensifying, pushing up demand for oil and carbon fuels.
To some extent, the increase in transport costs due to oil price, start to favour more local production. Peak population, peak affluence demand, and declining resources are making production more expensive. Transport of bulk raw materials is becoming more expensive. Even recycling becomes more expensive, as it requires energy processes and transport. A sufficient switch to renewable energy plants has not been made yet, and sufficient future capital investment might not be available in the declining economy. Even now, why are we still making new fossil fuel power stations?
Number three is world currency denomination, the US dollar, which is falling down in fits and starts, to be replaced by more stable alternatives. Eating away at the US dollar is enormous US debt, and a growing enormouse pile US treasurey bonds in the hands of foreign investors that can never be paid back. Eating it away is the decline in real world resources which can be still purchased. If resources exist and products are made in other countries, they can back there own currencies.
Number four is the US attempt to dominate by using its costly and declining military, by a series of occupations of a few little nations, which it cannot occupy without ongoing insurgency. This adds to US debt and is not realizing great material gains to the US. Whether the US empire still plans to strategicly extend these wars to go against the other Major Powers remains to be seen.
Its large number of forces are widely spread, with long supply chains, costly and oil dependent.
Number five is the great wealth inequality and corresponding self interested corruption of US elites, added to the games of corporations. Its a money war. They play and fight with everyone elses money. Money is supposed to represent the availability of real resources. The global financial crisis is a US dollar crisis, because we still mainly use US dollars.
Number six is the still growing populations, multiple races and religions, all competing for living resources on our declining planet. Conflict will occur inevitably to decide apon who gets to be the survivors. The winners may be those that manage by luck to keep out of the way. At the last exhaustive stage, after global systems have declined, local resources and conflicts are the determinants. Local defence and social cohesion, backed by sufficient local resources, will determine the winners.
A much thinner tribal world will conflict locally, all declining as the planets life support systems go offline, gradually moving from the equator up to the poles. Everywhere will look something like Afghanistan. The last survivors may fight it out on the new shores of the northern continents, and maybe Antartica. Welcome to terminal world. There can be no global winner.
Gee thanks for all the doom and gloom.
Posts like this are counterproductive as they lead to hopelessness.