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Scientists Warn Doing Nothing Will Likely Lock in Worst Consequences of Climate Change
UCS Says Cap on Global Warming Emissions Essential
WASHINGTON - Three top U.S. climate scientists stressed on a telephone press conference today the United States must rapidly reduce its global warming emissions to avoid the worst consequences of climate change. The scientists, all of whom have been involved in U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, were speaking during a telephone press briefing organized by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS).
An environmental activist walks next to a snowman as part of a climate change awareness action in Berlin January 22, 2010. (REUTERS/Fabrizio Bensch) The prospects for federal action on climate are uncertain. Some
senators have suggested the Senate may not consider a climate bill this
year. Meanwhile Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) has introduced a resolution
that would undermine the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA)
authority to regulate heat-trapping emissions under the Clean Air Act.
"Policymakers must understand that unlike a steel tariff, action on climate change is not something that can be postponed a year," said Richard Somerville, a research professor at Scripps Institution of Oceanography and co-author of the Copenhagen Diagnosis, a synthesis of the most policy-relevant climate science since the 2007 IPCC report. "The longer we delay in reducing our emissions, the higher the global temperature increase we lock in."
Reporters on the call asked the scientists for their perspective on the controversy surrounding stolen emails from the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit and an error about Himalayan glaciers in an IPCC report.
"It's time for policymakers to pay attention to the atmosphere and not the blogosphere," said Peter Frumhoff, UCS's director of science and policy. "While climate naysayers spout all sorts of excuses for not taking action, heat-trapping emissions continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, making the problem worse."
Robert Corell, a scientist with the Arctic Governance Project and the Global Environment and Technology Foundation, reminded reporters that the science is solid. "The vast body of peer-reviewed literature speaks for itself," Corell said. "Claims that say otherwise are completely unjustified."
Some climate legislation opponents now are calling for a stand-alone energy bill that includes renewable energy and energy efficiency standards without a cap on carbon emissions. This approach would fail to deliver the necessary emissions reductions, said Frumhoff. Scientists have indicated that cuts of at least 80 percent below 2005 levels by 2050 are required. To reach that goal, the government must ensure reductions of at least 20 percent below 2005 levels by 2020.
The energy bill passed by the Senate Energy Committee in July, which could go to the Senate floor, would not reduce emissions enough and therefore should not be seen as a substitute for a comprehensive climate bill, according to UCS. Because of its various loopholes and exemptions, the bill would do less to promote renewable energy sources than state policies already in place.
Conversely, a cap like the one in the House's "American Clean Energy and Security Act," which it passed last June, would put a price on carbon emissions, providing a market incentive for polluters to reduce their emissions and rewarding clean technology innovations.
"Economists agree that a carbon price is a critical, cost-effective way for the United States to reduce its emissions and transition to a clean energy economy," said Rachel Cleetus, an economist at UCS. "A strong cap would encourage investments in clean energy sources and energy efficiency and help ensure that U.S. companies capture a share of the growing global market in clean technologies. Green is the new red, white and blue."
The clean tech industry is the growth industry of the future, she said. The United States must act quickly to secure a leadership role in this industry, rather than ceding it to China and other nations that are rapidly expanding their renewable energy industries.
A cap would not interfere with economic growth, Cleetus added. According to the EPA, Energy Information Administration and Congressional Budget Office, the U.S. economy would continue to grow robustly under the cap in the House "American Clean Energy and Security Act." Costs to households, meanwhile, would be marginal. By contrast, the costs of inaction could be immense, according to a report UCS issued last year. Unchecked climate change will likely impose massive social, environmental and economic losses from rising sea levels, intense coastal storms, erratic weather patterns, drought and flooding, crippled infrastructure, and collapsed ecosystems.
"A bill that creates a cap would generate significant revenues to help in the transition to a clean energy economy," said Cleetus. "Revenues could be used to subsidize weatherization and other improvements in energy efficiency that would save money for low- and middle-income households, as well as to train workers for new clean energy jobs."
Finally, if Congress does not enact an emissions reductions plan sometime in the next few months, it will lower worldwide confidence in the United States' ability to live up to its pledge, to reduce emissions "in the range" of 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020, in the Copenhagen Accord, said UCS Director of Policy and Strategy Alden Meyer, who has been involved in international climate negotiations for 20 years. "Much would depend on President Obama's ability to lay out a clear path forward for the United States to meet its commitment in the absence of Senate action."
- Posted in



77 Comments so far
Show All"The prospects for federal action on climate are uncertain."
Uncertain? Not at all. There will be no "climate" legislation this year or next. Cap and Trade is dead on arrival as it should be. A bill to reward industry and government with no climate benefits. Shame on all who proposed it.
"all of whom have been involved in U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)"
Thats the kiss of death considering recent admissions by the IPCC concerning the lack of science in some of their findings and recommendations.
It appears that Global Warming discussion has gone to the back of the bus.
"recent admissions by the IPCC concerning the lack of science in some of their findings and recommendations"
If you're referring to the 2035 Himalayan glacier disappearing act, you're referring to 20 words in a 3000 page document, and a 'conclusion' that wasn't important enough to make it into the summary.
If IPCC is going to be held to that standard of excellence, then there's no hope for any of us. If you read the other commenters here, you'll see that there may be no hope for any of us anyway. But what a tragedy if that happened because you made the perfect the enemy of the good.
ubrew12
Not really, its simply the accumulation of all the Oops!, this year. Its been a killer. The PR damage is severe.
Of course there is hope for us. The world won't crater tomorrow if we don't pass legislation right now. Even if we did it wouldn't amount to a pimple on the rear of King Kong at the moment.
I read everything that you guys linked and did more research. The probability is that we could very well be causing somwe warming. The amount is unclear. But I decided that no matter if the final report isn't in, we'd better figure out what we can do about it.
Thats where I am and its not comfortable! As you know without a number of countries participating, its a real problem. But even if everyone said OK, lets do it...what do we do? Are carbon emissions the real problem, its not clear and if so what do we do about it? There doesn't seem to be anything practical floating around that I'm seeing.
Know of any workable plans?
I know it sounds crazy, but people should really be looking into the vegetarian lifestyle. I'm trying, but will never completely go 'off meat'. It takes 1/10th as much sunlight/oil/etc to produce grain as it takes to produce meat, so thats why.
One-eighth the land area of Arizona, put into solar thermal collectors, would produce enough base power to power the entire U.S. by itself. Just sayin'...
A couple weeks ago, a CD article talked about retooling America's car companies to produce cars getting 200 mpg(apparently, technically possible). Along with other changes, it sounded doable.
One problem, the gov't is broke and reluctant to go broker. This means we have to attack the military budget. If even just 25% of it was taken from them and given to green projects, I think we could lick this problem. Don't underestimate the power of the U.S.'s example. The argument that we shouldn't fix our house until India and China fix their houses, is the same argument THEY are using to avoid action. And the country that more than any other has LED the world into this climate change problem would find a lot of international goodwill from leading the way out of it. That has defense implications all its own...
what will our cats and dogs (pets) eat?
soybeans n corn, same as they're eating now.
Hmm, let me put this as delicately as possible: that's like asking what your mulch and compost will eat, if you get my drift.
· Yr Obd't Servant
If you're in a big city maybe.
Where I live, cats still keep down rodents and dogs still help hunt/track/guard house.
I wonder how much the water quality of say, Puget Sound, would improve if all of the "companion animals" of the Seattle Sprawl were to disappear?
Jeevee
It's suggested you look into the website of PETA to find out how our pets can be trained to be vegetarian.
My friend's cat, Mickey, is a natural vegetarian. He refuses to eat fish or meat of any kind. He does like cream cheese if you'll feed it to him from your finger. He won't eat it otherwise. Weird.
"One-eighth the land area of Arizona, put into solar thermal collectors, would produce enough base power to power the entire U.S. by itself. Just sayin'..."
I'm aware of that also. I wonder what that would cost. I wonder if it would cost less than the several trillion dollars spent so far, and the several trillion yet to be spent, to secure "our" oil supply in the middle east over the last several decades.
Damn it all! It is a no brainer. Solar and wind where most advantageous for each. I just get so damned angry over all of it.
I think it would cost less than 100 billion dollars to construct a solar thermal power plant the size of 1/8th of Arizona. Your trillion estimate is certainly way off the mark.
I think it would cost more than a hundred billion but far less than one trillion. I didn't mean to estimate a cost. I was asking, somewhat sarcastically and cynically, if it would cost less than the multiple trillions that will have been spent by the US over the last several decades, knowing full well that it would cost way less than that. But, there are other "more important" agendas that apparently must take precedence over common sense. Thanks for your response!!
Thanks for yours. I've always liked the Pickens Plan (though I don't like Pickens).
Remember that the Pickens Plan was never really a "ramp up wind power" plan as it was sold.
It was always a "ramp up wind power in conjuction with switching a chunk of the internal combustion engine vehicles from gasoline to Natural Gas and thereby blowing though said Gas several times faster than we are already doing plan".
Our problem vis-a-vis energy isn't really a matter of generation but of use.
Inefficiencies abound, from "waste heat" at generation sites to juice-leaking long distance electricity conduction wires to a petroleum-sucking continental road system with personal autos.
The classic is the person who owns a crappily-insulated but massively expensive McHouse constructed from a 50-year life span Canadian virgin forest wood frame and filled with "up-to-date" appliances and electronics that are filled with rare-earth and poison constructed gadgets for nothing more than a "gee whiz" effect on the buyer to get them to fork over some more unsecured credit to "buy" them. This person must then commute 1/2 hours each direction over a roadway system that has required CONSTANT repair since the 1970s (the same decade that the fuel-efficiency standards for his "over priced by 3 times plastic crapbox" brand new car were set) to work at a pointless, paper-pushing, "information economy" Global Corporatist eco-raping job in a hermetically sealed, glass-wrapped, energy-black hole of an office building to pay for all of their crap back in the 'burbs.
Ironically, despite the hard work that they put in for all of this unconsciously ecosystem destroying Consumer junk that makes up their life, they secretly hate ALL OF IT with such a supressed passion that they can't even make love to their spouse or play with their kids anymore but instead spend all of their time daydreaming about that little apartment they had in a 100-year old building in an old-fashioned city center in that small city where they went to University. Y'know, the one that was a four-story walk-up that had that nice landing where they could stow their bicycle (their only mode of transportation) out of the way while they had friends over to drink and play music?
Sorry for the rant.
But the point is that a giant solar collector may output a lot of juice, but it won't address the fundamental problem which is system inefficiencies exacerbated by unerring but unsatisfying consumer lifestyles on the user end.
-matti.
I like the rant: its prescient and all too true. I prefer the 'Hansen' route: make fossil energy expensive and you'll find the alternates that save the planet, including proper insulation on McMansions, a bevy of vege-burgers at McDonalds, and a new series of McTrains taking people to their McJobs.
So everything is good, except for that last one. How you respond to the life-force sapping black-holism of your McJob is something you have to do yourself. Or, your McSelf, whichever is more real.
Kent Shaw
I hate to butt in to a discussion thats very interesting, but the idea is simply not workable. You are not considering the loss thru transmission, the days of less production, lost production from equipment breakdowns, etc, etc.
Then, storage of energy till needed and means of use for non electrical items such as cars, etc. Emissions of electrical transmission. The sheer pollution from manufacturing the needed components.
What about the folks that don't want drilling of our own resources? They are going to lay down while you put windmills all over the place? Solar panels kill habitat? What about the sand mouse? Horney toads?
Then time till completion. Approximately 50 years?
Its certainly not a "no brainer" its horrendeously complicated.
I kinda disagree: it is a no-brainer and has been for years. 'brainers' are relative: and this particular 'brainer' is comparing itself to a policy of spending multiple trillions of dollars securing oil supplies in the Middle East and Central Asia. No, a solar collector in Arizona is not going to solve all our problems. But its illustrative of how easily this problem could be solved.
100 miles of wave energy converters off the coast of CA generate enough power to power all of CA all by themselves. But CA's coastline is 1200 miles long: how ever shall we cope? (sarcasm) Then there's wind power, nuclear, solar, etc.
This is a problem because some incredibly wealthy GLOBAL interests want it to be a problem. Most of them aren't even American, yet they have more say in the conduct of OUR government than the other 300 million of us.
I'm pretty sure that, at 100 billion, a massive solar farm in Arizona could be completed within 4 years. Most of it is aluminized mylar and framing (cheap), steam turbines (200 year old technology), and molten salt piping and storing (yes, sea salt). The issue of solutions to this potentially human-destroying threat is so simple its heartbreaking.
ubrew12
I need to think about this.........back when I've oiled the machine!
ubrew12
No, a solar collector in Arizona is not going to solve all our problems. But its illustrative of how easily this problem could be solved.
I was thinking it was illustrative of how complicated the problem was. Doing it would be enormously hard and might even be counter productive. The parameters are certainly volitile enough to allow for that possibility. The logistics stagger the imigination!
"100 miles of wave energy converters off the coast of CA generate enough power to power all of CA all by themselves. But CA's coastline is 1200 miles long: how ever shall we cope? (sarcasm) Then there's wind power, nuclear, solar, etc."
But will California allow those wave generators. They so far have been absolutely opposed to energy production in their state or energy generation.
"This is a problem because some incredibly wealthy GLOBAL interests want it to be a problem. Most of them aren't even American, yet they have more say in the conduct of OUR government than the other 300 million of us."
Now here we are in perfect agreement and they intrude in a number of other areas also.
"I'm pretty sure that, at 100 billion, a massive solar farm in Arizona could be completed within 4 years. Most of it is aluminized mylar and framing (cheap), steam turbines (200 year old technology), and molten salt piping and storing (yes, sea salt). The issue of solutions to this potentially human-destroying threat is so simple its heartbreaking."
You obviously have studied this area so I'll have to defer. But it just seems that mylar would nefer hold up nor produce a good rate of power. I would say using what you suggest, it would take a minimum of 10 years...at least. The logistics are still syaggering. Realistically,I'd put it closer to 25 years because we are not a dictatorship.
Even then you run into delivery problems and also the amounts of power needed in various regions at various times of the year.
Consider we have been building wind Power for years and it can only produce 5% of our electricity at peak and its not consistent.
You are not butting in at all, of course, and all commentary is welcome. You make a lot of good points. I think most of your concerns could be answered with intelligent engineering. Maybe not. Yes, the problems are very complex, but we have to do something or all is lost anyway.
Kent Shaw
"You make a lot of good points. I think most of your concerns could be answered with intelligent engineering."
Probably true.
Actually the biggest problem as I see it, is agreement and the vast amount of people that would be involved in the decision. Wrong! The
biggest by far are the absolutists. There is absolutely...AGW, there is absolutely no AGW...absolutely only one way to deal with it...absolutely must be NO carbon...etc.
Jeevee
Why does a "... vegetarian life style sound crazy..."
Have you ever considered going completely vegetarian for HUMANITARIAN reasons?
You might also consider logging in to some of the scientific vegetarian web sites (Ex: Union of Concerned Scientists) that explain scientifically how the human form was not structured to eat flesh foods.
Jeevee
I would say I'd have to agree with the studies that point out that our teeth are indeed formed for the express purpose of eating flesh. A comparison of plant eating and flesh eating animals makes it fairly plain.
well. people like me have been horribly conditioned, but that doesn't mean we aren't horribly conditioned, if you take my meaning. I'll always eat meat: I like the taste. But I'm trying to go vege, my daughter has already gone 'whole hog', and I think that's where the 'trend' will lead. To our benefit, (and the environments, and the animals) I would say.
I'm trying to cut back on meat as much as possible for financial and humanitarian reasons. There are some really tasty vegetarian recipes out there. I can't ever see myself going totally vegan though. Mostly vegetarian, hopefully, but vegan is... well... I suppose... too much committment. Maybe if I'd been raised that way from childhood.
'The 5 ingredient vegetarian gourmet' has been helping me.
Vegetarian food tends to need a lot of spices, to replace the 'je ne sais quoi' of meat protein, hence can get complicated (I prefer simple). What I've found is that your taste buds really do change, and eventually accept the more subtle flavors of the vegetarian dishes. In the meantime: Indian and Mexican, with the occassional fish/chicken/pork/beef dish on the lam. Asian food can almost be thought of as vegetarian, since in that case the meat is so reduced, its almost there as a flavoring.
ubrew12,
Listen to your daughter. We daughters are always happy to give advice to Dad, especially when it benefits their health.
My Dad is 85 years old and teaches yoga at a health club in Denver. He has had kidney stones, ulcers, prostrate cancer and suffered a stroke 4 years ago. Since that time, he has eliminated meat and dairy from his diet and at 85, is still teaching yoga and working out at the club and is disease and illness-free.
Nobody likes to be lectured but you have to know your daughter cares about you and wants you healthy and all the facts point to a plant-based diet.
I hope that works out for you and you enjoy good health.
Sue
ubrew12
Doesn't sound crazy, its just unlikely. I'm not even sure its advisable. Don't know the figures.
"One-eighth the land area of Arizona, put into solar thermal collectors, would produce enough base power to power the entire U.S. by itself. Just sayin'..."
Take a gander at my post to Kent Shaw about this. Based on figures, if you say so...pratically, I doubt it completely for reasons stated. Plus others.
"A couple weeks ago, a CD article talked about retooling America's car companies to produce cars getting 200 mpg(apparently, technically possible). Along with other changes, it sounded doable."
Once again, it might be possible, though I'd question it, but even if it was, it wouldn't be practical. Aside from which, you don't need 200, 45-55 would do nicely.
"This means we have to attack the military budget. If even just 25% of it was taken from them and given to green projects"
I believe its more than possible to reduce the military budget by 30% and have a stronger, better military. One much more suited to our defense in coming years. There are obvious areas to cut that would be addition by subtraction. We just need to get past Obama's rejection of reality.
Consider how the numbers have improved in the US since the sixties, its not exactly like we have done nothing. And I don't think for a minute that India and Chinas are going to jump aboard no matter what we do, unless its to change our trade laws.
This is just a real problem. Newsflash, huh? :)
"Know of any workable plans?"
I read today that humans, simply by breathing, contribute 33 billion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere annually. I suppose one might draw certain conclusions from that...
that's 33 billion total, most of which is from industrial activity, ie fossil fuels for energy.
Humans exhale about 1 kg of carbon dioxide per day
(http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/pns/faq.html).
The exact amount depends on age, sex, size, and most importantly activity level. Multiply that by a world population of six billion and you get a very large number.
However, human exhalation of carbon dioxide is part of a closed system. There can be no net addition of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere because the amount of carbon dioxide we exhale can’t be greater than the carbon we put into our bodies by eating plants, or eating animals that eat plants. The plants got the carbon from the atmosphere via photosynthesis.
This closed system is true for any animal, not just humans. It is also true for a growing population. You simply can’t have more animals than there are plants to support those animals.
The reason why burning fossil fuels is a concern is because it is not a closed loop over human time scales. Extracting coal and oil and burning them puts carbon back into the atmosphere that plants removed millions of years ago.
________________________________________________________
Massive plantings of plants that provide the most biomass per acre per growing season MIGHT end the CO2 in the atmosphere problem. It couldn't hurt.
Gotya. I read once that taking all the tailings from the fields of American agriculture (corn stalks, etc) after harvest (i.e. practicing no till agriculture) and dumping said tailings off the coast of CA (anoxic environment leading to a subduction zone) would allow America to meet the Kyoto Accords.
"would allow America to meet the Kyoto Accords."
Europeans couldn't meet it, bet we wouldn't either.
We should stop breathing? :)
Or at least:
A whole mess of people that aren't me or anyone I care about should stop breathing. :(
Now there's something I know you don't mean. You wouldn't want anyone to stop breathing, put that :) back on your face!
Matti,
You sound VERY narcissistic.
EVEN if you only care about yourself or "anyone I care about", you might want to FIND THE MATURITY to recognize that we are all in this TOGETHER.
"The Global Climate has massively changed more than once in the history of anatomically moder humans. We survived then, and we'll survive now." MATTI
And like a true, climate change "NAYSAYER", you are content to be lazy and selfish and DO NOTHING to contribute to positive change.
I suggest, at the very least, that you REFRAIN from your CHILDISH and MISGUIDED criticisms of others who are conscious and care about more than JUST themselves.
Two words: too late.
FastEddie75
Two more. You're right.
i'll add my two: crying shame.................
done deal
I'll add one:
Ride the Wave.
To which Goldman Sachs would edit: "Create the wave, then ride it"
Global Warming may be Naomi Kleins 'Disaster Capitalism" writ large. There are just too many global players ignoring the evidence for it to be anything else.
Jeevee
DON't give up. There are many positive thinkers, some of whom have invented superb solutions.
I say don't give up even if there ARE NOT any "solutions" at hand.
The Global Climate has massively changed more than once in the history of anatomically moder humans.
We survived then, and we'll survive now.
We just might be facing a cultural change as big as the one between foraging and agriculture to get through it, that's all.
My quote is a surfing metaphor.
The whole thing would be:
"Remember, you Ride the Wave, the Wave don't Ride you."
The blight on this planet called humanity has already killed itself. I can't wait for the shit to hit Wall Street.
No matter what we do we will die. We could have made some choices fifty years ago but we didn't. Now it's way too late.
That we will all die individually is a certainty.
That the species will die is not.
You are collectivizing what is truly a large number of individuals and small groups in your mind, then scolding the collective (that is your own creation) for not acting collectively, then transferring the consequences back on the individual AS IF they were collective!:
"Look, I say we're all One, and I say that that One hasn't done what was needed, so it won't survive, and that means none of us will survive because I say we're all One."
That's pretty screwy.
The real Nietzche made dark arguments that made logical sense.
You should cheer up.
Unhappy Genius does not appear to be your role ;) .
-matti.
"In terms of immediacy of action..in a short period of time, reducing meat consumption clearly is the most attractive opportunity (to reduce climate change)." Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, UN Chair on Climate Change
Waiting on our elected officials to bite the hand that feeds them (corporations) is not an option.
WE need a revolution. A food revolution.
The meat, dairy and egg industry is owned by a handful of agribusiness-run factory farms and contribute 51% to greenhouse gases.
WE, the consumers get 3 VOTES A DAY. Ok, I borrowed this line from Michael Pollan.
By buying more consciously, WE WILL CHANGE the food system.
FACTORY FARMS are major lobbyists and contributors to political campaigns and major contributors to disease and environmental degradation.
BOYCOTT FACTORY FARMS TODAY and substitute healthy proteins (beans, nuts, grains, tempeh, vegetables, potatoes, quinoa and more) in place of animal products.
Our OLD habits and what we perceive as CHEAP FOOD comes at a cost to our health and the environment.
Per recent UN studies, livestock are responsible for 40% MORE to climate change than ENTIRE transport (cars, trains, ships, planes, trucks) combined.
WHAT are we WAITING for?
www.grain.org..............remembering la gloria. gives a good idea of what the 'bloody' factory farms are up to as far as contamination goes.