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Campaign Promises on Ending the War in Iraq Now Muted by Reality
WASHINGTON - On the campaign trail, Senator Barack Obama offered a pledge that electrified and motivated his liberal base, vowing to "end the war" in Iraq.
Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, who was consulted several times by President-elect Barack Obama since the election. (Brendan Smialowski/Bloomberg News) But as he moves closer to the White House, President-elect Obama is
making clearer than ever that tens of thousands of American troops will
be left behind in Iraq, even if he can make good on his campaign
promise to pull all combat forces out within 16 months.
"I said that I would remove our combat troops from Iraq in 16 months, with the understanding that it might be necessary - likely to be necessary - to maintain a residual force to provide potential training, logistical support, to protect our civilians in Iraq," Mr. Obama said this week as he introduced his national security team.
Publicly at least, Mr. Obama has not set a firm number for that "residual force," a phrase certain to become central to the debate on the way ahead in Iraq, though one of his national security advisers, Richard Danzig, said during the campaign that it could amount to 30,000 to 55,000 troops. Nor has Mr. Obama laid out any timetable beyond 16 months for troop drawdowns, or suggested when he believes a time might come for a declaration that the war is over.
In the meantime, military planners are drawing up tentative schedules aimed at meeting both Mr. Obama's goal for withdrawing combat troops, with a target of May 2010, and the Dec. 31, 2011, date for sending the rest of American troops home that is spelled out in the new agreement between the United States and the Iraqi government.
That status-of-forces agreement remains subject to change, by mutual agreement, and Army planners acknowledge privately that they are examining projections that could see the number of Americans hovering between 30,000 and 50,000 - and some say as high as 70,000 - for a substantial time even beyond 2011.
As American combat forces decline in numbers and more provinces are turned over to Iraqi control, these military planners say, Iraqi security forces will remain reliant on significant numbers of Americans for training, supplies, logistics, intelligence and transportation for a long time to come.
There always was a tension, if not a bit of a contradiction, in the two parts of Mr. Obama's campaign platform to "end the war" by withdrawing all combat troops by May 2010. To be sure, Mr. Obama was careful to say that the drawdowns he was promising included only combat troops. But supporters who keyed on the language of ending the war might be forgiven if they thought that would mean bringing home all of the troops.
Pentagon planners say that it is possible that Mr. Obama's goal could be accomplished at least in part by relabeling some units, so that those currently counted as combat troops could be "re-missioned," their efforts redefined as training and support for the Iraqis.
In Iraq today, there are 15 brigades defined as combat forces in this debate, with one on its way home. But the overall number of troops on the ground is more than 50 brigade equivalents, for a total of 146,000 troops, including service and support personnel. Even now, after the departure of the five "surge" brigades that President Bush sent to Iraq in January 2006, the overall number of troops in Iraq remains higher than when Mr. Bush ordered the troop increase, owing to the number of support and service personnel remaining.
At his news conference in Chicago on Monday, Mr. Obama emphasized his willingness to listen to the advice from senior officers and that of his new national security team, which includes Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, the first Pentagon chief in history to continue serving under a newly elected president; Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; and, as national security adviser, Gen. James L. Jones, the retired four-star Marine officer who served as NATO's supreme commander.
Since the election, Mr. Obama has held unannounced consultations with both Mr. Gates and Admiral Mullen, described by Obama aides and Pentagon officials as having focused less on tactics and operations and more on broad, strategic views for American national security. On Wednesday, he made a telephone call to Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, Iraq's prime minister, according to the Obama transition office.
To date, there has been no significant criticism from the antiwar left of the Democratic Party of the prospect that Mr. Obama will keep tens of thousands of troops in Iraq for at least several years to come.
At the Pentagon and the military headquarters in Iraq, the response to the statements this week from Mr. Obama and his national security team has been akin to the senior officer corps' letting out its collective breath; the words sounded to them like the new president would take a measured approach on the question of troop levels.
"I believe that 16 months is the right time frame, but, as I've said consistently, I will listen to the recommendations of my commanders," Mr. Obama said at that news conference on Monday. "And my No. 1 priority is making sure that our troops remain safe in this transition phase, and that the Iraqi people are well served by a government that is taking on increased responsibility for its own security."
An apparent evolution of Mr. Obama's thinking can be heard in contrast to comments he made in July, when he called a news conference to lay out his Iraq policy in unambiguous terms.
"I intend to end this war," he said then. "My first day in office I will bring the Joint Chiefs of Staff in, and I will give them a new mission, and that is to end this war - responsibly, deliberately, but decisively." And in a news conference that month in Amman, Jordan, Mr. Obama acknowledged that the American troop increase had bolstered Iraqi security but declared that he would not hesitate to overrule American commanders and redirect troops in Afghanistan.
Mr. Gates, speaking at the Pentagon on Tuesday, a day after he appeared with Mr. Obama to announce the new national security team, made clear that the direction of troop levels now had been decided, with the only decisions remaining on how fast and how low.
"And so the question is, How do we do this in a responsible way?" Mr. Gates said. "And nobody wants to put at risk the gains that have been achieved, with so much sacrifice, on the part of our soldiers and the Iraqis, at this point."- Posted in



102 Comments so far
Show AllObama can't end the war. He doesn't have the power. But he will be expected to manage the war. He will do that in a political way and our troops will continue to suffer and die. War is a product in America that is too big to die. It must always be kept alive, even at the cost of our own citizens.
Hoa binh
since1492:to quote Dennis Kucinich:Congress can stop funding the occupation/war leaving just enough money for shipping the troops home.
So, can the Executive Branch keep a large conflict going without revenue from Congress?
locust:Is that a trick question? One comes to mind:Iran-Contra....getting money from other places (illegally) after Congress (Boland Amendment) says "no" but didn't Congress stop funding Vietnam War?
No trick.
Does the Executive Branch and the military and the corporations and the religions and the Supreme Court (if necessary) currently have the financial, secret and manpower resources to continue a large conflict without Congress or the American people being involved?
We are already mired in multiple military situations which hardly involve the American people at all. Why should Congress care if they don't?
Without Congress and the American people, can large military aggressions still be waged by the US Commander-in-Chief?
I hope not but I wonder about such things.
None of the things you pose would surprise me at all, and of the next to last one, I've wondered if it might not be in the realm of possibilities in spite of the new Commander-in-Chief. With everything we've impotently watched happen in the past eight years, and then there's everything we have no idea of that's probably been put in place, I feel that anything is still possible - althought, amazingly, since the election the hope that was reawakened then is still with me.
The President is Commander in Chief and at his discretion, the determination how all conflicts are fought and where is determined. He still needs the approval of Congress to attack or to declare war, but every single dime spent must be and is approved by Congress. The exception is a slush fund for covert actions or if he deems danger imminent, he may strike without authorization of Congress.
"amazingly, since the election the hope that was reawakened then is still with me."
Well I'm with you. I do believe many things have changed and hope for better still.
.Rose colored glasses alert
Two things, it would seem, have not changed. One is the ideology of those surrounding our new President Elect, the same faces the same poor strategies. The second thing that seems not to change is Thomas' inability to understand being fooled again.
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We see things, not as they are, but as we are.
Anais Nin
Ah-Ha! There in lies the rub!! I wasn't fooled the first time, ergo I couldn't possibly be fooled a second time. Irrefutable logic.
Ideology and I are strangers.
We are going to make you an honorary Texan so you can rise up from that well of darkness, come into the light of hope and put negative thoughts behind you. Then you will see that our new President Elect is going to save the world, solve world poverty and eliminate slavery from the world at last.
No, I don't believe that either, but I hope he does better than GWB and I don't see how I can be wrong.
.Speaking of rising up from the well of darkness ( great turn of a phrase by the by) unless we understand the culprit is how our system has been usurped , and work towards a very necessary change of our corrupt and sick system, it will never matter much for whom you vote.
The best that President Obama might do is throw us a few crumbs, while a select few feast at the main table.
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We see things, not as they are, but as we are.
Anais Nin
"unless we understand the culprit is how our system has been usurped"
Agreed. Lets unsurp it.
"while a select few feast at the main table."
I believe (hope) the select few are in for a surprise. Obama to me isn't the "changer," its our people. Its not him that will decide things are not. He can be a great President if he reflects Americans, if he works for America, otherwise he will be a quick footnote. I'm almost convinced the American people are about to decide they have had enough of the global lies, the internationalists dishonesty and want their leadership to represent them not the borderless elite.
"Speaking of rising up from the well of darkness ( great turn of a phrase by the by)"
I liked that myself...Thanks!
Is 'unsurp' a word? : )
I like the idea, though!!
If it isn't it should be!
.I would question your belief in the desire of this nations electorate to exercise its power. I do agree that, though far too easily manipulated towards war by the silliest of lies, the great majority of us do not want war, any war. Yet we vote for those who lie easily and deftly, we seem to lack any desire to grapple with complex issues as individuals, and we believe that our sole duty to this nation is to vote every couple of years ( well about 50% of us sometimes).
I noted with sadness the way those favoring candidate Obama saw him as an almost messianic figure, heard the same empty speeches and flowery rhetoric signifying nothing and were transfixed as if with a light from above. I see how our newly elected President fills his cabinet with the same old faces, the same folks dedicated to the same course of action, those who will continue the policies that benefit the very few and harm the very fabric of this nation and read that "we need to give him a chance". There seems to be no chance at all that progressive agendas will come to the table much less be acted upon. We need an electorate who understands that democracy is a participatory sport.
I apologize for the pessimistic rant, my friend, I am usually more upbeat, but its early and I havent yet finished my first cup of coffee...
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We see things, not as they are, but as we are.
Anais Nin
"I apologize for the pessimistic rant"
Not needed. Pessimism is the friend of opitimism. Optimism without a bit of pessimism is not reality.
"I noted with sadness the way those favoring candidate Obama saw him as an almost messianic figure, heard the same empty speeches and flowery rhetoric signifying nothing and were transfixed as if with a light from above."
I saw the same and just wrote it off to the desperate desire for some (any) form of leadership, and to the naivete of the young. At the same time, I thought he could possibly be a leader, could motivate by speaking, could set a better agenda. Just a few weeks before the election I decided to vote for him based on these reasons. He is a liberal, my hope was that he wasn't stupid enough to jump in and provide all the left wanted and is demanded so often here on CD and other places.
I am not disappointed with his cabinet choices except for Richardson (self server supreme, that I wouldn't want watching my back) They are old faces, but competent ones mostly. Obama will set policy, they will carry it out, but he will bear the responsibility by his own acclaim. If he can restrain his leftist instincts for immediate satisfaction, go a more centrist, slower route (a very popular idea with me), first repairing our economy and developing an American industrial policy, redrawing our trade policies to favor us rather than the nations we trade with, dumping the globalist rhetoric of the elites and recognizing that Nationalism is indeed not dead but in resurgance in very country but ours so far. My proof?, look at the way other nations are trading and setting economic policies. Quite clear I think. AND at the same time begin to institute progressive policies like universal healthcare, getting our troops home, etc., slowly working them in.
So far I believe he is exibiting real leadership qualities by trying to generate non-partisan/bi-partisan cooperation. Can he do it, will he do it, got me. But we will know soon enough.
"I would question your belief in the desire of this nations electorate to exercise its power"
My belief is based on the fact that most of the under fifties have never seen a time when things wren't fairly good, the market wasn't doing well and you could always find a job. Even many folks our age haven't seen really bad times.
We have seen some very bad times that those that didn't serve will never understand, but economically even we haven't seen the bad economic times I believe we are entering. I believe its going to be very rough for a year or more.
Based on this I believe the average American will wake up and demand no more our economy is given away, that importing slave and indentured labor is stopped, demand the corruption be cleaned out, refuse to pay for any more of the Globalists machinations, demand American citizens come first, demand the rule of law be restored, demand we stop wasting our money militarily....ie, spend it wisely and strengethen our military while reducing its budget. Demand a return to education in our schools. No more politics in education, etc.....
I do believe Pax Americana is done, I do believe there will be a multipolarity of powers in the world now rather than just us. And those that have been longing for that will eat bitter fruit. It won't be what they thought. At the same time there will still be no one or combination of nations that can challange us.
"We need an electorate who understands that democracy is a participatory sport."
An electorate that has finally let the largesse given us by "the Greatest Generation" (and they were)be dissapated will now become involved or they won't be employed and we will become a second tier nation in 30 or 40 years.
Don't you feel better about your rant now? This is two glasses of Apple Juice.
.We have an area of disagreement that widens into a chasm in fact. While you note the competence of those appointees to this new administration I recall the direction they shepherded the Clinton and Bush administrations and reach for something a lot stronger than coffee or apple juice!
.
We see things, not as they are, but as we are.
Anais Nin
"I recall the direction they shepherded the Clinton and Bush administrations and reach for something a lot stronger than coffee or apple juice!"
Thats what I meant. I don't believe this guy will be "sheparded" by anyone. But I won't say you are wrong because I am not a believer, just a hoper. I'll keep a good bottle of superior Texas wine close at hand (just in case)
Put it another way....I hope Obama will come thru, but I believe in America and the American people. I trust them...I never trust a politician.
We'll soon see. ( it will be a lot easier for the Grandchildren if I'm right ) But you and I both know how easily you could be right.
.Texas wine? TEXAS wine? Texas WINE? Perhaps you mispelled wHine?
Forgive me, I am from California after all.....
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We see things, not as they are, but as we are.
Anais Nin
EVERYONE knows that Texas produces some of the best wine in the world. Do you folks in California produce wine too???? Do ya'll need any help in the nuances of winemaking?
And now you know I'm from Texas!
.I know you will not believe this but wine comes in bottles without screw tops out here! You guys still putting wine in boxes?
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We see things, not as they are, but as we are.
Anais Nin
There is no such thing as a bottle of wine without a screw top. Just how dumb do you think Texans are?
.Oh boy could I get in trouble for answering THAT one!
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We see things, not as they are, but as we are.
Anais Nin
And all Texans appreciate your diplomatic handling of an open invitation! Nobleses obliege.
.You know, we could take this show on the road.....and any number of folks here probably wish we would!
.
We see things, not as they are, but as we are.
Anais Nin
I'm sure you are right....Lets do! Merry Christmas!!!
Under the U.S. Constitution, no.
But locust asks if the nation's rulers CURRENTLY can continue perpetual conflict. Under Cheney's unitary executive, which has supplanted the Constitution, sure.
You just ignore a) congress, and; b) rule of law. However, the American people continue to supply the money and blood.
locust:I don't know the answer. Hoping someone will help. Chalmers Johnson says the CIA is the President's secret army.
Yes he can.
Joe
Dust off your old signs "Get out of Iraq", make new ones. I'll recopy some of my art and make new "Get out of Iraq" art. Medea Benjamin, this morning, on DemocracyNow www.democracynow.org said that she is moving to DC to continue the peace work. Code Pink has a house in DC. Other guest in the same segment was Ralph Nader; cohosting with Amy Goodman was Juan Gonzalez; show and transcript will be online soon. Code Pink's website is www.codepinkalert.org. (I'm old enough to remember LBJ in office....)
interesting, since CODEPINK worked really hard to get Obama elected.
i was at a fundraiser for medea's other organization, global exchange, and she said that 2009 would be better because obama would be president.
CODEPINK wouldn't endorse me, Cynthia McKinney or Ralph Nader (true peace candidates) but they shoved Obama down our throats.
Cindy
"There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil to every one striking at the root" HD Thoreau
The problem for organizations like CodePink and others is that they'll get blind-sided by supposedly having "access" in Washington, D.C. I say it's a problem because Obama isn't acting to end the wars. He's stuffing his cabinet full of militarists.
Anti-war groups should understand Obama's positions and act accordingly.
I'd add that no one should vote party line if the party doesn't represent your interests. You can't get change that way. So, it seems CodePink made a miscalculation.
-TIA
Obama may have already decided to jettison the anti war part of the Democratic party and replace those lost votes (in 2012) with independents and non-evangelical Republicans. He has four years to charm them. He doesn't clear out of Iraq (where the insurgency starts up again), pours gasoline on Afghanistan and becomes an intelligent, well spoken version of George Wanker Bush. If that's what he does, he can write a third book called "The Audacity of a Dope". Sarah Palin is waiting for you. So is Jeb Rancid Bush and perhaps your biggest nightmare: The Great Whiter Than White Hope, General David Petri-Dish, the Dwight D. Eisenhower of our time.
I am one of those people who voted for Obama and if you're right about this (and most likely you are), I will hang my SUCKERFISH OF 2008 certificate on my bedroom wall where I can stare at it every night before I go to sleep. But Obama hasn't assumed power yet and this is real life where things that appear ridiculous in a movie or a novel actually take place. McCain had no idea what "Victory" in Iraq is or was but he wanted to stay there as a way of getting something for being screwed up the backside in Vietnam. Every time he can't raise his arms above his shoulders, he wants to kick Iraqi ass. Obama may be DeGaulle faced with the situation in Algeria. DeGaulle wanted France to stay but knew it was impossible and got out. Let's hope Obama does in Iraq what DeGaulle did in Algeria.
A good way to reduce the pain of that “SUCKERFISH OF 2008” certificate is to replace it with a “NEVER AGAIN MAIN PARTY” certificate. Never mind what the issues are or who the candidates are in four year. Just stop voting for republicans or democrats. That single act can save the country. I suspect that many Obama voters are beginning to realize that down deep both main parties represent the very same evil Military Industrial Complex and plutocracy that has been driving this country into the ground since WWII. I hope they don’t forget this in four years.
I have been one of those talking about how Obama will merely be 'Empire' lite as opposed to 'Empire' classic. His congressional voting record gave anyone who cared to look the reality of what his 'change' would look like.
But the pressing issue that is moving beyond politics is the collapse of economic systems worldwide. We have entered the early stages of the greatest depression this planet has ever seen, and nothing can stop it. This is the result of decades of abuse, greed, and lack of ethics. The time has come for the reckoning.
I sincerely doubt this government will survive through 2012. If it does, maybe, just maybe, we will vote our conscience and dreams for a real 'change', but until that happens, we will get what we deserve.
Sure - lite, as in lite cigarettes. They sound better, but in substance, it's the same shit.
For the record, I voted Green (my new party). I am not sorry Obama won, but I fear he doesn't have the guts to seize this incredible gift of total disaster to finally finish off the evil empire and let us birth a new nation -- rethink everything, a real rennaissance.
Yeah, I took a lot of heat from the Obama,acolytes that voting third party would throw the election to McCain. Well, all you Obama voters that were perjorative to third party supporters,it is beginning to look like you got McSame anyway!
as long as there is oil in iraq, america will have a permeating presense
Obama will do exactly what the Republicans would have done. He'll withdraw some troops for PR purposes, but will be sure to keep enough troops and firepower in Iraq to dispatch the current set of puppets and replace them if they ever think about taking back their oil.
Politicians promise this and give you that. Obama I promises to bring the troops home from Iraq. Obama II -only talking about combat troops--not the 50,000 that will remain there. Obama II--no torture, Obama II-we're flexible on torture. Obama I deregulating Wall Street caused this mess. Obama II I'm hiring the deregulators/hedge fund people to run the economy. Hello Rubin, Summers, Emanuel; goodbye Krugman,Galbraith, Baker.
Watch these Dems and their game plan: before Obama takes office--everyone, please, don't say anything bad. After he gets in office--The Republicans, the media, Sarah Palin are blocking my programs.
Dr Wu, the last of the big-time thinkers
Dr. Kiss your rear, has just praised some of Obama's choices. This criminal should have been put behind bars a long time ago! Enough said!
Exactly. Anytime Kissinger praises anything should be the first indication that it stinks to high heaven.
Dr. Kissinger supporting Obama's national security people, should be the kiss of death to all Obama supporters!
Complete self-interest from Dr. K: if the appointees won't go after the Bush Crime Family, then he will most likely die peacefully of natural causes rather than from a swift snap of the neck.
Why talk of 'war' in Iraq? Is Mr. Obama intentionally trying to make it harder for himself to fulfill his campaign promises? The 'war' ended in 2003. Bring our women and men home and end the occupation.
Oh, and will the withdrawing troops be coming home or going to Afghanistan?
Or was he talking about the other war? You know, the one that America does not want to discuss, the one that the government and military are seriously involved in even if the people aren't.
I want to hear him speak about how he expects to win the 'war on terror'? When will we know victory in this war to prevent future terrorism? How can we know?
Why do we go on fighting a war that has no victory? Why don't we think of something else?
Where is the tiniest progressive voice in Washington to ask such questions?
One of the worst faults this country has is the way we accuse, try, and convict before any proof of guilt has been shown. I stopped watching news broadcasts when the reporters started telling me what a speaker I'd just listened to had said, and meant by what was said, like I couldn't decipher the meaning of the speech for myself; and then how they began trying and convicting possible suspects in crimes, not caring about innocent lives they were ruining in the process. It's pretty obvious we've learned the techniques well.
So many voices out there now picking apart every blink, every word and action by Obama, and then deciphering his intent, or his plans. The man isn't even sworn in and won't be for over a month, yet he's already being found guilty by so many. I think we really deserve what ever we get after we've picked his bones clean.
It is not necessary to "pick apart every blink, every word" of President Elect Obama. All one needs to know is where he came from. The campaign was merely an "interregnum" of sorts. Obama has returned to where he came from and that is a return I can believe in. The rest is hot air.
Ever since Obama's star rose in the East, enthralled supporters have urged the non-enthralled to "cut him some slack" for a myriad of reasons-- during the dreadful campaign marathon, and now that he's been elected.
I get that the supporters regard critics and dissenters as the nastier classes of predator scavengers-- buzzards, piranhas, jackals, hyenas.
You would prefer, I gather, that Obama be treated as if he were inside a cocoon, and regarded with swooning respect and unconditional positive regard. The goalposts keep moving-- first it was cut him some slack until he gets the nomination; then it was cut him some slack until he gets elected-- don't you see what a high-wire the First "Black" Presidential Candidate has to walk to make history?; now it's cut him some slack until he takes office; next it will be cut him some slack until he gets his feet wet, until the Democrats strengthen their position in the mid-term elections, until he secures the nomination for a second term...
It's absurd to characterize critics as gratuitous and rapacious, or impute to us a malicious and supercilious desire to impose our will or conclusions upon supporters; if anything, that's what supporters are trying to do to critics! By all means make up your own mind in accordance with your wit and sensibility-- but there's no reason that Obama's words and actions should get the benefit of a temporary (but indefinite) amnesty.
· Yr Obd't Servant
I'm just saying wait until he's in office and actually doing what he's being accused of going to do. This all reminds me of bush's pre-emptive attacks - "kill 'em because I think they're thinkin' about doin' somethin' I don't want 'um ta do."
"...To date, there has been no significant criticism from the antiwar left of the Democratic Party of the prospect that Mr. Obama will keep tens of thousands of troops in Iraq for at least several years to come."
The Democratic anti-war left was easily tricked by the smooth language of Mr. Obama. I tried to engage in discussion with many of them but to no avail. They bought the hope and change advertising.
The Democratic anti-war left has already returned to their American Idol/Guitar Hero lifestyle not understanding that voting was merely the first step in a very long excruciatingly difficult process of reclaiming their country.