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TechnoratiIt's the end of the world as we know it, and for a little while, at least, it sounds lovely.
Imagine a world where the air is cleaner because fewer people are driving cars. Where you can hop on a train to visit your friends in the West River Valley or spend a day in Boston, arriving refreshed instead of wiped out from highway driving. Where chemical-drenched agribusiness is dead, and food is grown locally. Where big box stores are gone, and the shops on Main Street sell the things you need. Where small schoolhouses again dot the hills of tight little communities.
This vision harks back to a simpler time, perhaps one directed by Robert Capra and starring Jimmy Stewart. But it may not turn out to have a happy ending.
James Kunstler came through our town over the weekend, giving a talk at Marlboro College on Saturday and sharing his semi-apocalyptic view of a post-cheap oil future. He's talking about the time when "our cheap energy fiesta" is over, and his vision has a certain relevant ring in a week when gas prices creep up over the $4 a gallon mark and truckers in Spain tie up all the roads to protest paying over $10 a gallon for diesel.
Already, many of us are driving more fuel efficient cars, converting to fry oil, trying to piggyback errands in town and, in general, driving less to save gas. And many more of us are worrying how we're going to heat our homes next winter.
Kunstler, an enemy of sprawl, has been writing about energy issues for the past five years. He's not coming at this topic from a right, left, conservative, liberal, progressive, Democrat or Republican perspective. In his opinion, we've all screwed up.
For the last 200 years, as Americans have enjoyed an upward path of progress on every level, we have taken "bigger, faster, more" as not only our motto but our birthright.
In the past, a better technology always came along to save our butts. Kerosene replaced whale oil. Electric lamps replaced kerosene. People complained about manure-clogged streets at the turn of the last century, and then along came Henry Ford and his automobile.
Kunstler's warning is that this upward swing will not continue indefinitely. He quotes Dick Cheney's famous line, "The American way of life is nonnegotiable."
"Then reality will negotiate for you," Kunstler said. "You don't even have to be in the room."
The reality is a world of depleted oil reserves and intense global competition for what remains. The current manipulation of the commodity markets and the devaluation of the dollar isn't helping, either.
There are great impediments to America reacting intelligently to this new, scaled-down paradigm of life, Kunstler believes.
The first is our addiction to wishful thinking -- affirmation and the fact that our national anthem may as well be "When You Wish Upon a Star."
Another impediment, according to Kunstler, is "our favorite religion: the worship of unearned riches." We can't count on winning a million dollars in Vegas any time soon. In fact, soon what happens in Vegas will really have to stay in Vegas -- we won't be able to get there. We won't be able to drive to work every day.
No new technology will come along to save us, Kunstler said. "You don't say to the airline, 'Uh, fill her up with technology. And you're not going to create new planes that run on something else."
Neither will "alternative energies" be enough to fuel our hydrocarbon-drunk world. We will have to drastically change the way we live.
Kunstler says Americans "are semi-delusional about this." We think, "Oh, they'll come up with something."
In the meantime, his pessimistic predictions are already coming true. General Motors -- didn't "What's good for General Motors is good for the nation" turn out to be a big whopper? -- is about to abandon the Hummer. Airlines are going under. George Bush wants to drill in Alaska, even though the best predictions indicate we can only get enough oil out of there to fuel our economy for a month.
"How are we going to keep the cars running?" Kunstler said. "We're not. Let's talk about other things."
But wait. While a return to 1950s-style Americana has its charms, without cheap oil, the trucking industry dies. The airline industry dies. The automobile industry dies. Service stations, mechanics... masses of people will lose their jobs. Masses more will lose their toys.
Think of those political ramifications. Millions out of work. Millions cold and hungry. Millions angry. Thanks to the Second Amendment of the Bill of Rights, millions armed.
Kunstler doesn't see America devolving into a Mad Max world of violence and chaos, but I think the question of what might happen is very much up in the air.
If only the wealthy can afford oil, what exactly do you think will happen when their expensive, chauffeur-driven, well-guarded cars are mobbed by angry crowds of formerly middle-class people who have lost their jobs?
Or, we could, in our panic, turn to some kind of dictator who will promise to keep our old way of life running, even though he can't. Aren't false promises the easy currency of most politicians these days? There are no cheap or easy solutions in our future. But the first thing to think about, Kunstler said, is rebuilding the public transportation system. We should demand that rebuilding the railroads become a serious issue in the current presidential election.
That's a good place to start. Another may be to get a gun.
A collection of Joyce Marcel's columns, "A Thousand Words or Less," is available through joycemarcel.com. And write her at joycemarcel@yahoo.com.
63 Comments so far
Show AllFor your information, Byron W, I'm a libertarian who quit the NRA a long time ago because I realized it was nothing but a fund-raising cash cow for the GOP. Please don't think that just because I'm a gun-owner and a firm believer in RKBA, that necessarily means I fit all the stupid stereotypes of gun owners as knuckle-dragging, blood-thirsty Neanderthals.
There's a zillion things we "could" be doing to preserve a highly mobile society that isn't fueled by oil, but the corporate paradigm shift hasn't come. I see solar-powered rail and ship transport and many other technologies galore waiting to be developed. The trouble is we've spent 100 years frivolously pissing the time away. We now have no enlightened infrastructure to show for it, just a lot of people shouting for immediate change. Well, we shouldn't have allowed the oil companies to destroy mass transport in the 30's. We've wasted a lot of time.
Here is a great site for "doomers": http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/BreakingNews.html
Also, in response to stacy6's post:
No one who asks "What can I do?" really wants an answer-at least not a real answer. For this reason, the charade of political candidates, elections, and the corporate media that guarantees the success of that particular con game has hypnotically entranced the electorate who overwhelmingly prefer to remain delusional. The majority take little interest in the candidates anyway, perceiving them as yet another group of celebrities. Yet even more delusional are those who call themselves progressive. These individuals are desperate to keep the show on the road and sanction its validity, and they are the ones who least want to know the answer to "What can I do?" because of what it would cost them. Consequently, they must pre-occupy themselves with "solutions" that have nothing to do with the actual state of the earth and its inhabitants but which offer a false sense of making a difference. When I think of them, I cannot help but note that as the Titanic was sinking it would have made no difference if hundreds of its passengers had collected endless buckets of water the ship had taken on and emptied it back into the sea, but it may have provided them with a momentary sense of participating in a "solution."
http://carolynbaker.net/site/content/view/203/
"Please provide your evidence that: __ "F*cking people over is irrational"
One wouldn't provide evidence for this, but I already provided an argument that there would be no repeat business coming to someone who had fu*cked someone over in a previous transaction. Can you think of any well established business who has use this method to build a business?
In a free market, no one can f*ck you over without your permission.
"And while you're at that, please show us evidence that avariciously based corporations are __ "rational" "
I never said that they are, not exclusively. They sometimes are, sometimes aren't. I know of no one who claims that participants in markets are *alwaya* rational.
"as well as being __ not "selfish"."
They are most certainly selfish.
Hi Ku! for Paul_GA's comment
Look at all US guns!
Starving, but neighbors have food!
They left, why you ask?
---hi Ku for post-oil NRA the way the Repugnants want it.
I'm glad Ms. Marcel counselled us to arm ourselves in the final paragraph. If worst comes to worst in this country as the decline continues, those who have something will have to be able to fight tooth and nail and no holds barred to keep it.
Because those without nothing will have to develop (if they haven't got it already) the ruthlessness to take by force what they want ... or die.
~ JAKE ~ ( RE: June 12th, 2008 11:50 am )
Please provide your evidence that:
__ "F*cking people over is irrational"
And while you're at that, please show us evidence that avariciously based corporations are
__ "rational"
as well as being
__ not "selfish".
Also, please do prove that you're
__ "on-base"
Namaste
"Well, jakenewton, you've conveniently forgotten that since Reagan, business consolidation has gone unchecked in many sectors, so there is no "choice". "
I notice you provide no examples of "no choice".
"Economic fundamentalism is blind."
Explain.
The director's name was Frank Capra,
not Robert Capra.
Jakenewton wrote: "You ignore the fact that if you f*ck over somewone else, they won't do business with you again. F*cking people over is irrational, unless you are some loser fly by night operation. Therefore I think your analysis is way off base."
Economic fundamentalism is blind.
Good news! I'm working on a way to convert "dark energy" (which makes up 75% of the universe) to run my van. If you are interested in plans on how to convert your car to this green alternative energy source, please send $49.95 (plus $12.95 shipping & handling) in small unmarked bills to:
Homer Simpson Energy Industries LLC
PO Box 911
Springfield, #*, 5^@2?
The first one million orders will receive not one, but TWO Dark Energy converters, plus shipping and handling of course.
Well, jakenewton, you've conveniently forgotten that since Reagan, business consolidation has gone unchecked in many sectors, so there is no "choice". And my analysis extends to interpersonal behavior as well, including the loss of civility in society. When businesses can do whatever they want (witness the "media", formerly known as a free press), I see the economic model as flawed. I stand by my analysis.
The affluence that America has enjoyed for decades was achieved by embracing a consumer society and selling our resources at a hideously low price. This rampant consumerism crated a nice tax base for our government. The public wasted, and the government wasted because we were wealthy and everything was cheap. Just a few months ago, when CD ran an article on the trucker's striking because of high oil prices, most of the comments, and the article were pro-strike, because we still think we deserve cheap oil.
In fact, cheap oil (cheap resources in general) have been the bane of our existence. Many Americans have big boats and three homes and SUV's and motor homes and "drive around just for fun". Places of business have their front door open and the thermostat set to 60 in the summer time.
The population explosion is never addressed. Instead, progressives lament the end of cheap food, rarely discussing the inherent limit of the planet.
Clean and abundant alternatives to oil have been around for decades. They have been kept from us because of ignorance on the part of the public, and unbridled corporate corruption.
Climbing oil prices don't have to result in mass chaos and economic collapse. We just have to stop wasting, and start using the technology we already have.
"Selfish behavior is "me first, f*ck you", "
You ignore the fact that if you f*ck over somewone else, they won't do business with you again. F*cking people over is irrational, unless you are some loser fly by night operation. Therefore I think your analysis is way off base.
Free market ideology is premised on the basis that selfish motives advance the efficient allocation of resources. Selfish behavior is not difficult to encourage, but the "free market" philosophy, where "government is the problem, not the solution" removes an important referee from the governance of economic transactions.
Selfish behavior is "me first, f*ck you", and is the foundation of the "free market".
Capitalism teaches us all, by the time we enter kindergaarten, that individual initiative is the correct basis for any sane society. "Competition is Good", within limits of course. A fundamental dichotomy (which is never resolved without difficulties: crime, taboos, war) is created, which we personally never can accept fully since we each know deep down that Cooperation is really the true underpinning in a Decent and Loving world... \
So we live confused and conflicted about the Why of LIfe.
All this has been the result of social evolutionary forces at work within human cultural history, over millenia. No Blame. But now as we wake up to the truth, that there isn't enough fuel, protein, scarce resources etc., to go around, we resist the obvious: SHARING IT ALL. Only One Planet. Love It or Leave It.
" "the free market", translates into "me first, f*ck you". "
Please explain.
The economic model in use in the US since Reagan, "the free market", translates into "me first, f*ck you". This is hardly the uniting theory needed to address the massive problems that need to be solved, from economic distribution. to revision of outdated energy and transportation networks. Our country MUST get away from this economic model, but McCain and Obama both seek to perpetuate it. Ralph Nader is the only candidate with a cogent idea of how to get us out of this mess, but he would have to work with a legislative and judicial branch marinated in this sick economic theory. In other words, we're SCREWED.
"Per capita GDP is a horrible measure. "
It's certainly not perfect, but you offer no other.
"STOP THE WAR!
and
Gas will drop by 1/2 Half."
What happened in Iraq in just the last year that caused oil to double in price?
"Wait till November 2 and it magically go down to
$2.50 a Gallon."
You clowns were saying this in '06 and the Republicans lost both houses. Get real, there is no "price dial".
The speed of decline will increase. The dynamics of change are moving in a negative direction. As the dynamics impact each other a synergistic negativity develops that heightens the downward spiral. Greed and stupidity have yielded their fruit, economic collapse, disease, and death. Tears flow like rivers as reality no longer yields to public relations. Minds melt like butter and an overwhelming sense of dis-ease enfolds us. Fear freezes everything as marauding gangs terrorize everyone. Capitalism has failed and Democracy is ended as America returns to the wild and death again becomes a welcome guest.
EXXON-BU__! SH__!
When you have Corpirate Oil CLOWNS/Clones ruining the government
What do you expect?
STOP THE WAR!
and
Gas will drop by 1/2 Half.
Or
Wait till November 2 and it magically go down to
$2.50 a Gallon.
So much for Peak Propaganda.
The money quote: get a gun. More than one. Lots of ammo. Train well. Move north. Get away from big and medium-sized cities.
Remember when we thought "survivalists" were the nutty ones?
Per capita GDP is a horrible measure. The Germans all have health insurance. They have a highly functional electrified transport system. They are NOT whining about fuel costs over $11/gal. And they have a far more responsive, representative political system and an inclusive social-welfare system. Oh, and their schools kick US school's butts.
You also fail to understand the meaning of the Boston Tea Party after I posted a link to a very good informational source. It wasn't a protest against a tax. The British had figured out a way to undermine the very lucrative Black Market in tea and other goods by lowering the costs of those goods on the open market. Does that sound familiar?
Now is the time for the U.S. to make the SINCEREST, in depth appology to the Native Americans nations. Then, we will be including ALL community and restoring peace and habitat without the need for oil. The more compassion and understanding that we practice, the easier this mess will sort out, or the easier we will be able to cope with it.We need to get along with our First Nation peoples and let what knowledge they have left inspire and lead this country. We have so so much wisdom to learn from ancient peoples.
I would also suggest reading Barbara Kingsolver's "Animal, Vegetable, Miracle" for an idea on the importance of eating locally, and equally important..."in season." Learn NOW to do without the food that cannot be easily made available to you.
Treat the internet as a gift! We have created a tremendous, but odd sense of community that can pull things together and inspire.
Good luck.
I cannot believe this author suggests/implies that we become armed Americans? To me, it is creating a fear. Why can't we practice panicking WITHOUT GUNS? Isn't that a whole big problem in the first place? We may as well lock ourselves up in our homes and watch TV, for fear of our community. This end to the "Oil Fiesta" will pe peacefully untelevised, without guns, no harm done! People are gonna go gun-happy if we promote this idea on a "progressive" news media source. That bit of advice was quite adulterated. Otherwise, a well-written article.
What's the point of this article? Does it somehow benefit us to fear the future? I don't think so. We've been getting the message to be afraid for the last seven years - fear the terrorists, fear the followers of Islam, fear, fear, fear. I don't appreciate the fear tactic coming from the Bush/Cheney junta, and I don't appreciate it here.
"Get a gun" is deeply unproductive advice. I'd even go so far as to add stupid and destructive. Guns don't feed people. Guns don't build community or anything else for that matter. The real solutions to the challenges ahead lie in building community, increasing sustainability on a radical scale, changing our vision with hope, imagination, courage, and love...not with fear.
Don't offer us fear. Offer us the opportunity to create solutions, to build, to create, to rise.
The Boston Tea Party was against a tax that was largely symbolic, as was the "Party" itself.
"The main point is that the German economy is way outperforming the US "
By what measure?
Germany per capita GDP 34,181
United States per capita GDP 45,845
"If the British in 1776 increased the price of tea"
MiMiCcS--Do please at least review the history of an event before putting your foot in your mouth. The Boston Tea Party happened in 1773, and was because the price of tea was LOWERED.
Funny. Iran imports refined gasoline at 140 dollars a barrel and sells it to it's citizens for 40 cents a gallon. If they could refine their own oil the price would be cheaper, but sanctions have made this impossible for them.
Nothing has changed in 1 year. Price increases 60 dollars a barrel to 138 dollars a barrel to get people talking about global warming (cold winter where I live, and a cooler summer than usual, but of course thats local and perhaps normal variation) and reducing consumption, and of course carbon trading. And people can not connect the dots.
People seem to have lost the ability to think for themselves. This is a manufactured crisis for political reasons and financial profit.
If the British in 1776 increased the price of tea and explained that the reason the price was high was due to overpopulation and market forces, or that India was running out of tea, and those living at the time were like the people of today, they would simply believe it, wail a bit and promise to drink less tea. Never would have been a revolution. I think Darwin had it wrong. Man is not the product of evolution, it's devolution.
I now see how Obama might bring change. The right might be dumb, but they are not spineless, like liberals and progressives have shown themsleves to be over the last 8 years. If Obama tries to feed this crap to them, and not a Republican whom they will not question as a matter of faith, they won't buy it and might do a bit more than pound their keyboard. They will be on the right side of this issue.
"That's a good place to start. Another may be to get a gun."
...and a big box of grapeshot?
In Gaza, the high-tec transportion solution is the donkey. America is stuck with the jackass.
Galen:
Finally I realize why Iran. 300mph torpedoes to incapacitate the floating cities... That has GOT to be a rarity, meaning few nations have so vested in torpedoes. They probably have them on hard to find diesel subs. Diesel subs are actually electric, they charge their batteries by diesel generator which is when they betray their position sonically.
From the perspective of an international elitist, floating cities with oodles of high tech weaponry would be tough to subdue if the US Navy doesn't go up against a valid threat.
Eventually though, the powers that be must make waste of all the military hardware that could be used to find, track and target them. Eventually the people will get around to voting, what to collaborate on, what words to live by... Finding the formerly financial elite, then militant elite, will I'm sure be high on the agenda. With all the recognition programming, iris, face, fingerprint and with all the sensor technology floating around this place, it shouldn't be too tough a job to track and prosecute the uber-criminal elitists... Why they want to make the Aircraft Carriers more like the near 50 thousand grunts that have been debilitated by the present war.
cold fusion!?
In response to NorthPark:
Motion is energy. Motion is heat. Cold is the absence of motion, thus also of heat and energy...
If fusion were cold, it would be very low energy. So you're holding out for the energy with not much energy...
Bravo!
Who's making money right now? The Saudis ($1 billion/day), the market speculators (the rich get richer...), and the oil companies (they pay 12.5% of the market price for the oil they take out).
Grab your ankles, America. You've just been had!
KARLOF1 & SWEEVE: Interesting posts.
"Kunstler's warning is that this upward swing will not continue indefinitely."
this Luddite rant is exactly in line with the plan of the multinationals to destroy living standards worldwide. the human race has no choice but to constantly develop its standard of living, or suffer extinction.
Supposedly, we are a conscious and reflective species that is capable of knowing where we are and where we should be going as a human species,...... like working for a just, sustainable and compassionate world.
Unfortunately, the false need in the West for never ending consumption has destroyed the predominance of human consciousness. So we now are witnessing the self-destruction of unsustainable Western industrial capitalism before we are capable of waking up for our own survival as a human species.
Too bad the Western civilization was first insanely in love with capitalism.
Galen, I second your recommendation for "Dies the Fire". Very good book. I also highly recommend Alex Scarrow's "Last Light" which is purely oil production/energy based (unlike Stirling, who invokes some science fiction) and deals with 7 days in the UK following a crisis where oil exports cease. Very eye-opening.
But basically it boils down to this: if you factor up things energy-wise each person in the US has the equivalent of somewhere between 100-400 slaves working for him. In other words, in a fossil-fuelless world, each person would need that amount of slaves to retain the same standard of living as today. Of course, some caveats apply (unuavailibilty of certain oil-based materials, impossibility of fast jet travel etc..) but it gives a sobering idea of how dependent we are on oil. We may be heading back towards the traditional format of civilized societies where 95% people are peasants. As S.M Stirling would say, in a post-industrial world "you can either be a farmer, or run the farmers".
Another chilling thought: prior to the industrial revolution & the fertilizers that came out of it, there were 1 billion people. We are 6 billion plus today. The path back to equilibrium will be rough, and industrialized nations such as the US will have it worse as they are farthest removed from self-sufficiency.
jakenewton, et al--Taxes are a part of the prices I cited, but where are the howls of protest from the Germans and Turks? The German economy is humming, and Turkey is a pretty widespread country, although they do have a fair train system and the many bus companies linking their cities are #1. Look at the current chaos in Spain, the ongoing protests and port blockades in France, and the threatened strike by fuel haulers in the UK amid other signs of protest there, and compare.
The main point is that the German economy is way outperforming the US while paying 2.5 times the price for its transport fuels. And the rightwing howls we need lower fuel prices to remain competitive, so we must drill in all the reserved regions now. But that won't increase our domestic supply for 5-15 years depending on the location. The real problem is the Trillion+ dollars committed to annually supporting the US Empire. Redirect all that money to alt.transport and electricity production, and then we might be able to compete with the Germans.
More Net exports are going to Asia, which is why Morgan Stanley predicts $150 oil come 4 July. Russian flows are in decline and its exports more so. Mexican and Venezuelan exports to the US show a decline rate of -32% Y/Y. So if the Gulf of Mexico sees hurricane action this year, oil could easily go to $180-200. Imagine where oil has to go to arrive at German levels of fuel price. The fundamentals of oil aren't that hard to learn. Theoildrum.com isn't the only site to learn from, but it's probably the best. There are lots of leftists/progressives/radicals there who understand along with folks from the center and right. Peak Oil is apolitical as it will effect everyone. It's too bad the Blame Game appeals to the much lower reptilian instincts of people.
I am currently busy selling off all my worldly possessions (house cars, etc)and retiring to a energy self- sufficient sailboat (wind, towed hydro & solar power) to live on and cruise the world.
I expect us sailors will be the only global travelers left soon.
We are on the brink of the phase II internal combustion engine which will burn fuel without making carbon dioxide. Soon after that human ingenuity will triumph with the phase III internal combustion engine that will produce more fuel than it consumes.
If you believe that, there's a nuclear power plant I would like to sell you.
While the author cries over spilled milk about not getting "entitlement" for solar, wind, and the unmentioned hemp not paying attention to the fact that for the past 30 years, BIG GOVERNMENT has given her and us the MIDDLE FINGER, here's a better solution I shall give you so you don't have to wait until 2030 to get it.
Do a google search on
solar power generator
wind power generator
"make your own biodiesel" "petroleum free"
hemp "make your own fuel"
If you have time to blog around and/or watch American idol, you sure as hell can find time to devote your mindset and skills towards building those alternative renewables and draining Big Government and Corporate America of its oil revenue !
Read T.C. Boyle's "A Friend of the Earth".
beyond whether individuals, or large populations, choose to attempt to reverse their contributions to global industrialization and consumption is, to me, not the question, as I believe many will, albeit late in the game...what concerns me is that the powers that be may not give us that chance, or may have already made the effort moot, as America's no longer driving (ha), anyway...we're used up...we can only make deep, sincere changes in our resource usage, and hope we are, as a people, able to radiate whatever dignity and influence may accompany genuine remorse and meaningful change for the better (minimum impact), that other countries (China) might join us, rather than insist upon emulating our horrendous past behaviors...compromise is no good, as we simply cannot continue to alter the chemical composition of our world without dire consequence...can we live without electricity? Plumbing? The industrial infrastructure necessary for the harnessing\exchanging\storing\transmitting of any and all energies? No? How can we continue to live with them? We need to stop all of it together...worldwide...The Big Stop...we need to plan ahead to develop local food and water sources, then, on the agreed-upon day, unplug the 'lifesupport' and go it sans industry, sans electricity, sans vehicles, sans money, jobs and schools...I know, but there's no other way to avoid the horrors of sadistic violence this Fascist system portends, and I don't even know if that will do it...we probably have no way out without a terrible fight, and they have some awesome weaponry...hell, we may be fighting computers, satellites, drones and robots...all of us together, though, might pull it off...I'm very concerned about our lack of ability to understand and unite, and the ever-growing surveillance that works against us...
"do they have any alternatives to energy in those countries ?"
There are always alternatives. In the US, people are abandoning the SUV, getting on public transit, etc.
it's the people of germany and turkey's fault for accepting those high gas prices....do they have any alternatives to energy in those countries ? can anybody tell me ?
The great thing about an energy free world is that the military won't be able to walk, carry all their crap AND fight as well. We'll live small, and local, lives, and eat out rarely, buy new things seldom, recycle everything, not because we want to but because we have no choice.
Some communities will do it well, others not well at all. And that's the future. Corporations will go bellyup, bankruptcies will go huge, but you'll keep your house because, after a certain point, who's going to want it?
Welcome to Europe, 1945-1955, in America.
A thin layer of super-rich, propped up by police and military (private or government). The other 98% living a dog-eat-dog nightmare of poverty and squalor, lives nasty, brutish, and short. That is the future. It has been obvious for 25 years, and it's almost here.
"The Germans and the Turks as of May 30 were paying $11.49/gal for gas."
Taxes. They tax the hell out of it at the pump in all of Europe. Also, they don't have the vast distances to cover as in the US.
I rather go along with Jared Diamond's 'Collapse'. The people we select as leaders seem to be collectively as bright as a bag of hammers, no different than the rest of history.
Joneden- And twenty years from now there will be..what? (I'll give you a multiple choice based on reality and technofetishist predictions.)
1) a happy, shiny plastic 'Star Trek' future of abundant, clean apparently sourcless 'energy', along with all kinds of high tech/nano-tech toys and space travel.
2) a not so happy planet of declining nations squabbling over depleting resources.
3) a moderate planet of 'alternative' energy technologies that are still heavily dependent upon a rapidly depleting resource base.
4) a much quieter planet with a reduced population living in the shells of former nations, trying to eke out a living from a climate changed, Peak Oil world.
(here's a hint. #2 and #4 are the most likely)
Hey, cold fusion IS possible. I just did it in my bathtub. The patent can be yours for only a cool $3 billion. I just need you to drive me to the airport with the check because my bank's in the Bahamas, you see, and I'd like to deposit it in person. Yeah, that's the ticket...
>Kunstler doesn't see America devolving into a Mad Max world of violence and chaos<
Aw, bummer. And I just got myself a mohawk, too. If we survive, it'll be as some kind of European-style Social democracy, because the "every man for himself" ethos ain't gonna cut it. A lot of resources will have to be collectivized, just to prevent social unrest. Ain't it funny that the conservative dream of unrestricted capitalism will probably lead to the exact opposite?
RE: Galen June and Northpark- 'They' (these stories never say exactly who…) have been on the verge of a cold fusion 'breakthrough' for the past 20 years…
For a half century, fusion has always been just 20 years away.
You think oil and gas are expensive now?
Wait until either the US or Israel attack Iran, as they have both recently said they would ( Israel was FAR more blatant about it, and has even set up a separate Air Command wing recently).
When the first bomb goes off inside Iran, the wallowing oil tankers in the straights of Hormuz will be nothing but fat juicy targets. And even the 'mighty' US aircraft carriers will be nothing but sitting ducks for the Iranian 300 mph torpedoes.
The entire oil transport apparatus in the Middle East will slam to a halt, and oil is predicted now to shoot past $300/bbl. This while the world economies dump the US dollar like a diseased rat.
Everything that is made from, touched by, or transported by oil will suddenly skyrocket in price, if it's available at all. The wonderful food we enjoy year round will not reach the markets. And any country is only three days away from revolution when that happens a s the food runs out. This was recently confirmed by a study released by the BBC in the UK last week.
9/11 was about oil. The invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan were about oil.
The past 150 years of Western Civilization was based on oil.
And when it's no longer available, due to either war or shortage, our society will fall.
Solving our "democracy crisis" -especially in our localities and states- could be helpful in allieviating the social damage of a "Long Emergency"-type scenario.
When people feel "We're all in it together" they are less apt to panic and turn violent.
I think all the closet commies and quiet collectivists, in fact the whole panoply of the Left should be ready to finally get to work.
Remember the last economic "depression"?
No neither do I, but remember the history of it?
Could get interesting.
-matti.
The Germans and the Turks as of May 30 were paying $11.49/gal for gas. The current US average is $4.052/gal. The half-way point to the German figure is about $7.80/gal. Where will the US economy be with gas at the latter figure in comparison to the German economy already accustomed to a much higher price?
"The first [great impediment] is our addiction to wishful thinking." Hmmm, I wonder where this addiction comes from? I wonder what would happen if a country was predominantly of a certain religion, where praying for a saviour's intervention was pervasive?
You have hit the nail on the head. We have had for the last fifty years been putting quick fixes on our economy and deregulation of our giant corporations, be it oil or financial institutions.
We have allowed a dunder head of a president and his trained pit bull Cheney to almost ruin our nation.
The solutions to our problems now is to abandon the quick fix and though it will be painful, and to address our problems with real long term solutions.
Who has the courage to do this? I don't know but I am willing to give Obama a chance he can't do worse than the last president and I just don't think McCain has the capacity to deal with reality.
Northpark- 'They' (these stories never say exactly who...) have been on the verge of a cold fusion 'breakthrough' for the past 20 years...and the last announced 'cold fusion breakthrough' was a hoax.
Not to mention two VERY large stumbling blocks the fusion 'scientists' have yet to overcome, to wit: a) the lack of an inexpensive source of hydrogen and b) the necessary massive pulse of energy to start the system.
It's nice to see that the message that Peak Oil is about to bite us in the ass getting wider play.
Other that James Kunslers book, another wonderful examination of a no-tech future is S.M. Stirlings 'Dies the Fire'. Ignore the tecnobabble of the how. Read the WAY that people will HAVE to return to to survive.
It will be nasty, difficult and dirty.
For non-fiction information as to why this is happening, read 'Powerdown', 'The Party's Over' and Jim Kunsler's 'The Long Emergency'.
For information on how to get through the the coming hard times I suggest 'When Technology Fails' and the Readers Digest 'Back to Basics' to start with.
In paragraph 3, instead of Robert Capra and Jimmy Stewart, it should be Frank Capra, unless he had a brother Robert who also directed Stewart....
Alarmist rhetoric.... We are on the verge of a cold fusion break through, this will only speed things up. Humsns thrive on their ability to adapt.