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The Planet's Future: Climate Change 'Will Cause Civilization to Collapse'
Authoritative new study sets out a grim vision of shortages and violence – but amid all the gloom, there is some hope too
An effort on the scale of the Apollo mission that sent men to the Moon is needed if humanity is to have a fighting chance of surviving the ravages of climate change. The stakes are high, as, without sustainable growth, "billions of people will be condemned to poverty and much of civilization will collapse".
The report praises the web, which it singles out as 'the most powerful force for globalisation, democratisation, economic growth, and education in history' This is the stark warning from the biggest single report to look at the future of the planet - obtained by The Independent on Sunday ahead of its official publication next month. Backed by a diverse range of leading organizations such as UNESCO, the World Bank, the US army and the Rockefeller Foundation, the 2009 State of the Future report runs to 6,700 pages and draws on contributions from 2,700 experts around the globe. Its findings are described by Ban Ki-moon, Secretary-General of the UN, as providing "invaluable insights into the future for the United Nations, its member states, and civil society".
The impact of the global recession is a key theme, with researchers warning that global clean energy, food availability, poverty and the growth of democracy around the world are at "risk of getting worse due to the recession". The report adds: "Too many greedy and deceitful decisions led to a world recession and demonstrated the international interdependence of economics and ethics."
Although the future has been looking better for most of the world over the past 20 years, the global recession has lowered the State of the Future Index for the next 10 years. Half the world could face violence and unrest due to severe unemployment combined with scarce water, food and energy supplies and the cumulative effects of climate change.
And the authors of the report, produced by the Millennium Project - a think-tank formerly part of the World Federation of the United Nations Associations - set out a number of emerging environmental security issues. "The scope and scale of the future effects of climate change - ranging from changes in weather patterns to loss of livelihoods and disappearing states - has unprecedented implications for political and social stability."
But the authors suggest the threats could also provide the potential for a positive future for all. "The good news is that the global financial crisis and climate change planning may be helping humanity to move from its often selfish, self-centered adolescence to a more globally responsible adulthood... Many perceive the current economic disaster as an opportunity to invest in the next generation of greener technologies, to rethink economic and development assumptions, and to put the world on course for a better future."
Scientific and technological progress continues to accelerate. IBM promises a computer at 20,000 trillion calculations per second by 2011, which is estimated to be the speed of the human brain. And nanomedicine may one day rebuild damaged cells atom by atom, using nanobots the size of blood cells. But technological progress carries its own risks. "Globalization and advanced technology allow fewer people to do more damage and in less time, so that possibly one day a single individual may be able to make and deploy a weapon of mass destruction."
The report also praises the web, which it singles out as "the most powerful force for globalization, democratization, economic growth, and education in history". Technological advances are cited as "giving birth to an interdependent humanity that can create and implement global strategies to improve the prospects for humanity".
The immediate problems are rising food and energy prices, shortages of water and increasing migrations "due to political, environmental and economic conditions", which could plunge half the world into social instability and violence. And organized crime is flourishing, with a global income estimated at $3 trillion - twice the military budgets of all countries in the world combined.
The effects of climate change are worsening - by 2025 there could be three billion people without adequate water as the population rises still further. And massive urbanization, increased encroachment on animal territory, and concentrated livestock production could trigger new pandemics.
Although government and business leaders are responding more seriously to the global environmental situation, it continues to get worse, according to the report. It calls on governments to work to 10-year plans to tackle growing threats to human survival, targeting particularly the US and China, which need to apply the sort of effort and resources that put men on the Moon.
"This is not only important for the environment; it is also a strategy to increase the likelihood of international peace. Without some agreement, it will be difficult to get the kind of global coherence needed to address climate change seriously."
While the world has the resources to address its challenges, coherence and direction have been lacking. Recent meetings of the US and China, as well as of Nato and Russia, and the birth of the G20 plus the continued work of the G8 promise to improve global strategic collaboration, but "it remains to be seen if this spirit of co-operation can continue and if decisions will be made on the scale necessary to really address the global challenges discussed in this report".
Although the scale of the effects of climate change are unprecedented, the causes are generally known, and the consequences can largely be forecast. The report says, "coordination for effective and adequate action is yet incipient, and environmental problems worsen faster than response or preventive policies are being adopted".
Jerome Glenn, director of the Millennium Project and one of the report's authors, said: "There are answers to our global challenges, but decisions are still not being made on the scale necessary to address them. Three great transitions would help both the world economy and its natural environment - to shift as much as possible from freshwater agriculture to saltwater agriculture; produce healthier meat without the need to grow animals; and replace gasoline cars with electric cars."
162 Comments so far
Show AllI'm sure this is a worthwhile effort, but the fact that the Rockefeller Foundation (more importantly that David Rockefeller is involved) throws up a cautionary yellow flag for me.
Saltwater desalinization done with Nuclear Plants is a horror, especially the toxins that go back into the Oceans.
Meat without animals? I guess if it is healthy nature foods thats OK. But my guess is he means some bioengineered clone poison.
"Meat without animals? I guess if it is healthy nature foods thats OK. But my guess is he means some bioengineered clone poison."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Sp-VFBbjpE
Makes for good conjecture, anyway.
Check out the planned 'vaccine' program, civilization will collapse, but NOT the Rockefeller's!! They take care, of THEIR own.
Well, we'll see about that.
Mark my words.
MOTHERFUCKERS BE DAMNED.
Keep in mind, if liberal groups back these studies, they won't get ANY attention from conservative-minded people.
Cicero: "Freedom is participation in power."
Intelligent political conservatism died out in America when Sam Nunn's generation stepped down from Congress. Contemporary "conservative-minded" people ignore realities outside their own wallets and investment porfolios anyway. They despise the Constitution and the very idea of a Bill of Rights (except for the 2nd Amendment) and have no notion whatsoever of promoting the "general Welfare" (with a capital 'W' as written in the preamble to the U.S. Constitution) or maintaining a commonwealth. They do not "hold these Truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal" and delight in pitting race and against race and middle-class against lower-class whenever and wherever in the U.S. or the world such provocations can financially benefit them.
I've been chatting with a few conservatives at a different web site the last few days. A couple are clearly mentally challenged but some are simply, and admittedly, "assholes" who are simply out for their own interests and are deeply distrustful of government. That distrust of government is common ground with many on this site.
And why would anyone WANT to trust a government or any large organization?
Color that flag RED, my friend... or WHITE, in the case of humanity.
Cicero: "Freedom is participation in power."
No mention of the urgent need to build hundreds upon hundreds of carbon sequestration facilities--if that process will work without its own complications--or to create plans to humanely reduce extreme human over-populations without defaulting into more and uglier resource wars. The idea of a planned capitalistic contraction of over-consumptive growth on a global scale that maximizes efficiency and distribution commensurate with planned population reductions resulting from birthing limitations is sensible compared to the stark staring madness we see before us today. Capitalism in all its known forms has only ever been based on endless "growth" even if that "development" devours most of the resources needed by future generations in two or three generations from this one. New theories and forms of a balance between capitalism, socialist programs and the environment are needed--especially theories based on planned economic reduction along with planned, humane population reduction.
Technology was always a double-edged sword. We as a species have tended to look only at the upside. But it has now created a world where having children and raising them to adulthood is no longer a right but a privilege. Human beings must learn to live in better harmony with other human beings and altogether with the rest of the living things in our biosphere. I envision a system of altruism credits for doing work of benefit to society combined with intelligence and physical health tests to determine who gets to have up to two children. Adoption of any children beyond the limit and sterilization of parents who violate the limit seem like the most humane way to address enforcement of this restriction.
Human beings in "developed" nations have long understood the need to manage wildlife habitat (available food & water) along with various wildlife populations in a sustainable manner. We now must use that idea to manage human populations and habitat in a similarly sustainable manner. That or endless "Af-Paks" and "Great Games" to control oil on a war ravaged and environmentally degenerated planet.
AEI/AIPAC will pay you good mammon to take the blame for overpopulation off the elites and put it onto the people. Everyone knows that the G8 economies together could eradicate poverty permanently, worldwide, easily, AND promote a worldwide one-child policy like China's. The G8 won't do it because US elites don't want to cultivate socialistic policies. They want to hoard resources and inflame mass deprivation. They want people hungry, fighting for crumbs. They want more USans tethered to authoritarian religion and predatory capitalism. You have to focus the blame where it belongs: On the E-L-I-T-E-S.
I wonder if there were committees discussing the relevance of rising water in the Titanic. Maybe we should ... or perhaps ... What a plethora of idiocy. We need immediate world wide birth control a la China, immediate banning of all uses of internal combustion engines not deemed critical for human survival, and immediate rationing of clean water world wide. Anything less than this is fiddling while Rome burns. And there is not a chance that any of these will occur. Rising sea levels may accomplish the first for us, but those rising sea levels will spread the coastal pollution and toxicity into the ocean at large, rendering a major food source moot. And our news media still glamorize our 'leaders' of politics and industry as though they somehow had the answers. They were instrumental in causing the problems, aided and abetted by every one's lust for more junk. We have some horrible times looking us in the eye, and only a fraction of humanity will survive, if any. And maybe that is a good thing. Have a nice day.
MichaelC
Unfortunately, it has been a mild summer so far in the NE and midwest US. This isn't statistically significant, and much of it is just perceptual because the much above normal summers and warm winters of the 90's early 00's are the "new normal". But it does provide a lot of rehtorical ammunition for the opponents of tough action.
It's fucking dry here. Rain has been going mostly elsewhere. But we have had two more normal winters in a row now, here in west central Minnesota. For what that's worth...
I know the weather in AZ has changed. We don't the the monsoon rains in the Summer anymore. We have had a drought for years. As I understand it the Southwest will be drier and we will run out of water as the mountain snows in CO and N. AZ don't get as much snow in the winter that we in Phoenix depend on for our water.
We've had one of the wettest and coldest Junes in history here in New England. Naturally, this makes the ninnyhammers screech, "See, global warming is a hoax!"
I don't know what part of "global" they don't understand. On second thought, after reading some of the troll posts...
Of course, the warming is what evaporated enough water to make the weather wetter than normal. It's funny how they don't understand how that works.
Dunno. El Niño, La Niña, global warming, or just shitty weather? There are many variables in every trend, so who knows how much of what goes into it.
National Geographic did a piece a few months back on global climate change and noted the the north east US would face cooler, wetter weather, while other areas will face severe drought.
Unpredictable.
Makes me glad I moved to DC and got out of Florida. Seriously, the summer here is awesome. It's in the 60s every morning when I go to work, it's never like that in Florida.
Temperatures have been below normal in DC. A normal summer in DC is pretty similar to Florida in the summer but with haze and dirty air. I moved from DC to Pittsburgh - much cooler. I wonder why homes have central AC at all. I never use it. Cleaner air too.
Agreed.
I moved to Maine from DC in 1981. Summers were brutal down there. I can remember 98 degree days with 100% humidity. Gawd awful.
Of course, I also remember winter blizzards in the 60's down there.
Since I've been in Maine, I've noticed Robins hanging around all year, where that wasn't the case just 10 years ago. We've also had a couple of "hundred year" ice storms. Few hurricanes make it this far north anymore, tho, we are seeing more twisters.
Things are changing.
The Apollo mission that sent men to the Moon is needed if humanity is to have a fighting chance of surviving the ravages of climate change - by sending Adam and Eve to the moon?
Things ain't so black & white, and, as we know,
no one has ever predicted the future with much
accuracy.
http://climatedebatedaily.com/
Of course, it's important to look at both sides, so thanks for the link.
I was drawn to the statement at the bottom of the page about the editors, and am copying part of it below. It summarizes my philosophy on this subject as well. It's what rational people do when faced with so much evidence about such a potentially catastrophic subject, even when that evidence is not 100% certain:
"Douglas Campbell is currently completing a Ph.D in philosophy at the University of Arizona while teaching philosophy at the University of Canterbury in New Zealand. He has degrees in computer science and biology, and has worked as a wildlife ranger with endangered species. His areas of philosophical expertise include logic and the philosophy of science. He is impressed by the breadth and depth of the scientific evidence supporting the theory of anthropogenic global warming, and thinks that to the extent that the science remains uncertain the Precautionary Principle still justifies even relatively costly mitigation measures."
Amen.
Not to worry! Mother Earth will survive…..that is after she has cleansed herself of the pesky human race.
Gotta love that time-honored tradition of the-end-of-the-world-is-imminent, be it religious or secular! A benefit is that it's okay to miss the end of the world because there will always be another! Also, if you're really in to the end times, they always happen - so indulge yourself!
Already I cannot wait for the next end of the world!
Anybody read "The Population Bomb" lately?
How pathetic is this article! Economic growth and most technology results in environmental destruction. They seem to think if we're smarter we can get ourselves out of the mess our brains have gotten us into!
We have too many people consuming too many resources, with a small percentage of aggressive men leading the way to resource depletion and species extinction (including our own).
The human race is acting like cancer on the planet. Our only chance of surviving the mess we've created is to greatly reduce our numbers and consumption, and learn to live in cooperation with each other and all life on the planet. Good luck!
Yes, the Earth will survive, but at a great loss of life. The rest of life will breathe a sigh of releif when we're gone.
"How pathetic is this article! Economic growth and most technology results in environmental destruction. They seem to think if we're smarter we can get ourselves out of the mess our brains have gotten us into!"
Same reaction I had.
Hey, we know what we've done to get us in this mess so let's just do it smarter!
Probably written by IBM, THE GREAT COMPUTER!
ALL SHALL KNEEL TO THE GREAT COMPUTER. For it is the house of worship and rule.
Hey, don't diss the Great Computer! After all, it gave us the answer to life, the universe, and everything.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aboZctrHfK8
and you're magnetic ink!
This is so funny I can't make myself read all of it! This artice is as assinine, ludicrous, and delusional as any religious text I've read!
"Backed by a diverse range of leading organisations such as Unesco, the World Bank, the US army..."
The US Army is not a radical organization given to hasty measures (unless it has to do with going to war). That the Army is very concerned should make us all very concerned for two reasons: 1. They know something we may not. They see the potential for civil collapse and are very worried. 2. Given what they see, they will do what they think they must to control civil collapse.
Are the Patriot Act, REAL ID, RFID chips in passports and other measures being implemented in order to deal with what will come in the future instead of what has happened in the past? Maybe they're just trying to get a leg up on civil unrest.
These are the two things that worry me the most: What Nature will do, and what humans in power will do.
Fascism may creep in silently most of the time, but give them a reason...
Check out 'swine flu', planned vaccinations, FEMA, WHO, Baxter, etc. etc. etc.
Things are moving along fast, so it appears, as social awareness and unrest grows.
Check it out Ted.
And the rest of you.
"Things are moving along fast, so it appears, as social awareness and unrest grows."
The real danger is that unrest grows much faster than social awareness. As we have already witnessed.
That too, Ted, but the government and the 'officialdom' have much more weaponry, including sophisticated psychologies. Social unrest, frightening though it may appear, is still the friend of freedom. I think I could safely talk down a bunch of misfits in many cases, and avoid violence, though not all cases to be sure. But do you think we can stop S.W.A.T.? They're trained to kill and kill in abundance. As their 'programmers' require.
Think about that, and think about your own susceptibility to advanced psychological mis-information as provided by our 'providers' in government.
Think about it.
"Think about that, and think about your own susceptibility to advanced psychological mis-information as provided by our 'providers' in government."
Ned, this shit's been going on for many years. COINTELPRO went away in name only.
What's scariest (to me) is that we only think we know what's real. What if that's all part of their game? (he asked, rhetorically)
This is one of the reasons I keep hammering on individual action. Yeah, join others, but don't always expect their aim to be what you think it is.
this is being planned in the u.k. too.............vaccinations for everyone.
Well, who knows. All I could find were opinion pieces, though some credible looking ones.
From what I've heard, there won't be enough inoculant to go around, so it may not be an issue.
I believe this whole H1N1 thing has been blown out of proportion. Yes, we have to be cautious and track it for health reasons, but the death rate of this one has been relatively benign. What is worrisome is its seeming ability to jump species.
It will be interesting to see the results in the southern hemisphere where they are now in winter. Typically, that's peak flu season.
So many issues, so little time...
Think the Army is concerned? Try the Navy...what will they do when naval stations around the world are underwater?
I would think it would be the Navy's wet dream...
"Are the Patriot Act, REAL ID, RFID chips in passports and other measures being implemented in order to deal with what will come in the future instead of what has happened in the past? Maybe they're just trying to get a leg up on civil unrest."
Absolutely - this report may be the most stark and comprehensive, but entities like the Pentagon have been studying and (in their fashion) preparing for the coming generalized destabilization of everything. Previous reports by the Pentagon, the CIA, and others make clear that they are aware of and preparing for climate disruption.
The glimpses here of what certain areas of that planning look like - genetically engineered "meat" grown in vats, "saltwater agriculture", replacing combustion autos with electric autos, etc. - give a clue to the kinds of "solutions" to "civil unrest" that they will have on the table as they plan their response to the unfolding future.
Massive hubristic programs of centralized power, rather than seen as problematic, will be the only path forward for these planners. Their own centrality to power will certainly remain unquestioned. People and groups that organize for human-scale, humble, decentralized futures, will be seen as contributing to "civil unrest"...
"Massive hubristic programs of centralized power, rather than seen as problematic, will be the only path forward for these planners. Their own centrality to power will certainly remain unquestioned. People and groups that organize for human-scale, humble, decentralized futures, will be seen as contributing to "civil unrest"..."
Unfortunately, and depressingly, you may be right.
I am one who has called for a decentralized future (as it once was). Wonder if I will be one of the first to be made an example of.
Oh well, as William (Mel) Wallace once said: FREEEEEDOOOOOOOOOOMMM!
I had a girlfriend who thought I was like William Wallace and it's true. I only hope they don't do to me what they did to him.
FREEDOM.
Freedom Ted, freedom.
"Many perceive the current economic disaster as an opportunity to invest in the next generation of greener technologies, to rethink economic and development assumptions, and to put the world on course for a better future."
Well, if there's a buck to be made, bring on the disaster!
Naomi Klein, Naomi Klein...paging Naomi Klein!
could be, might be, what if? Same old song and dance. And not one word about the major cause of all this dooms day stuff. Yep, overpopulation and it looks like Kafir is going to like standing in line for everything.
My goodness you are deviating from the party line! Overpopulation is exactly the real problem, but we don't want to discuss reality....do we? Not any fun if you actually have to produce measurable results. Or measurable certainty.
Without population growth, you can't have economic growth and thus can't achieve "sustainable" growth. And without this wonderful growth, the super-duper rich can't keep getting wealthier at the expense of everyone else. So, of course we can't address the root of the problem!
I love it when you make sense Henry8, bravo.
Overpopulation is the symptom. The disease is elite rule. In particular, facist elite rule in Washing-town. The "pro-life" missionaries are out in full force. Chimpy set them loose upon the world eight years ago. USan liberals were too busy fondling their Lexus brochures to notice.