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Intelligence Failures Crippling Fight Against Insurgents in Afghanistan, says Report
Leaked analysis condemns US for lack of co-operation • Senior officers' criticisms also cover Iraq campaign
A highly critical analysis of the US-led coalition's counterinsurgency in Iraq and Afghanistan has raised serious questions about combat operations in both countries - and the intelligence underpinning them.
A US radio operator near the Afghan-Pakistan border. US forces are accused of failing to share counterinsurgency intelligence with their international military allies. (Photograph/Reuters) The
confidential document presents a bleak picture of a counterinsurgency
effort undermined by intelligence failures that at times border on the
absurd.
Based on scores of interviews with British, US, Canadian and Dutch military, intelligence and diplomatic officials - and marked for "official use only" - the book-length report is damning of a US military often unwilling to share intelligence among its military allies. It depicts commanders in the field being overwhelmed by information on hundreds of contradictory databases, and sometimes resistant to intelligence generated by its own agents in the CIA.
Counterinsurgency efforts are also shown as being at the mercy of local contacts peddling identical "junk" tips around various intelligence officials, with the effectiveness of the intelligence effort being quantified by some senior officers solely in terms of the amount of "tip money" disbursed to sources.
The report describes a rigid reliance on economic, military and political progress indicators regarded by the authors and interviewees as too often lacking in real meaning.
Its sources complain of commanders who have slipped into relying on "the fallacy of body counts", discredited after the war in Vietnam as a measure of success.
The report, prepared by the RAND national defence research institute for US Joint Forces Command in November and leaked to the Wikileaks website, reveals the case of Dutch F-16 pilots in Afghanistan who were ordered by the US to bomb targets, only to be refused access to American "battle damage assessments" showing what they had hit, on the grounds that the Dutch were not "security cleared" to view them.
Another interviewee describes how coalition forces at Camp Holland near Tarin Kowt in southern Afghanistan maintained 13 different intelligence sections, including US, Dutch, UAE, and Australian, all operating with minimal co-operation.
"It would have been helpful [for us to have] combined them; then we would have known everything," complained Lt Neils Verhoef, one of those interviewed for the report. "One section knew the location of an IED [improvised explosive device] factory, and we drove by it for three months."
The unflattering document will make grim reading for President Barack Obama as he grapples with the worsening crisis in Afghanistan, confronted by an increasingly emboldened Taliban and its allies. With counterinsurgency tactics now placed at the centre of the operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, the RAND report suggests that many of the national armed forces involved lack skills to operate effectively.
It calls for a substantial overhaul of how military intelligence is gathered, organized and acted on. Quoting senior officers, it questions many everyday operations - from weapons searches to the killing or arrest of wanted individuals - suggesting that they "alienate" the local population for little measurable gain.
Lieutenant General Sir John Kiszely, former the senior British military representative in Iraq, said: "There were some operations taking place in Iraq where the success of the operation ... was judged solely against whether tactical success had been achieved; tactical success in terms of attrition of enemy forces, numbers killed or captured, numbers of weapons seized, amounts of explosives captured, extent of area controlled. By these criteria ... a given operation would be judged a success, regardless of the fact that it had seriously alienated the local population, and the fact that, within a few months, other insurgents had re-infiltrated and regained control."
An anonymous source quoted in the report stated that "operational commanders" continued to "indulge in the fallacy of body counts, and a month in which more Taliban are killed than in the previous month" was seen as progress. He added: "This is actually more likely to reflect the fact that there are more enemy on the battlefield than there were before."
Despite the huge emphasis on counterinsurgency tactics in Iraq and Afghanistan in the last two years, the report's authors, Russell Glenn and Jamie Gayton, find it necessary to remind military readers of the importance of the civilian population in their efforts, not least in protecting civilians "against attack by both the enemy and your own forces".
"Those interviewed in support of this research," they wrote, "noted with no little frustration that coalition forces themselves too frequently neglect to treat local community members properly."
Perhaps most damning of all, however, is the suggestion from several of those interviewed that often they felt that an overall strategy for what they were supposed to be doing was entirely lacking.
One of those interviewed was Brigadier General Theo Vleugels, who described his 2006 command experience in southern Afghanistan in terms worthy of a passage from Joseph Heller's Catch 22. "We didn't have a campaign plan when we started, but we later got one from my higher headquarters that was close to ours, which is not surprising as they told us to do what we told them we would do."
RAND declined a request for an an interview with the authors.
- Posted in

30 Comments so far
Show AllI thought the lack of communication between entities was the reason gw put everything under the umbrella of DHS.
We really need to pull all the troups from both countries and let the people there, along with the surrounding countries, sort it all out and clean up what they consider unwanted factions.
Gee, I thought it was beyond dispute that the surge and General Petraeus's counterinsurgency strategy in Iraq was an unmitigated success, the Taliban had been defeated in Afghanistan, and the al Qaeda evil doer network had been fatally decimated, all courtesy of George W. Bush's courageous, steadfast preemptive war approach to fighting an endless global war on terror thrust upon America by the 9/11 attack.
Either somebody must have misinformed me before (Bush/Cheney? McCain/Palin? Rush? named and unnamed Pentagon spokesmen? the mainstream media Washington press corps?), or else Barack Obama has managed somehow to turn victory into defeat in less than 100 days, without actually withdrawing a single US soldier from either theatre of combat.
Perhaps this is where the term "combat theatre" originally came from.
Bill from Saginaw
"Combat theatre" indeed. Good one, as usual Bill.
Since the CIA funded, trained, and armed the Muhajadeen and Al queda...
How about "Friendly fire-sign theatre"...?
How about straight from the horse's mouth!
Rand Corporation has been the policy maker for the Department of Defense and U.S.Government for decades. It is nothing more than another Conservative Network of ex-military and government officials. Some of the members are:Henry Kissinger, Lewis"Scooter"Libby, and Donald Rumsfeld for a few.......So, who might have leaked this document? Daniel Ellsburg is one of the members too........
Give me a break! Do you think Mainstream Media will break this story and question why we should still be in Iraq or Afghanistan? Iraq had no Al Qaeda and there were only 25,000 Al Qaeda in 2001 known to the CIA in Afghanistan. What is worse, The United States and Saudi Arabia created Al Qaeda. Again, Al Qaeda means "Base". Whose "Base"?
By killing innocent civilians, The United States was trying to develop more Al Qaeda members so that the "Never Ending War" could go on "Forever".....One of the most unique and immoral recruiting techniques the World has ever heard of.
Hillary Clinton said, "The crisis is good, now we can rebuild a more energy eficient world economy." Let's start by bringing all the troops home from Iraq and Afghanistan. Let's cancel all civilian contracts for mercenary companies and companies rebuilding Iraq and Afghanistan. (Blackwater, Dyn Corp, CACI, Bechtel, Halliburton, KBR, Carlyle Group, General Electric etc.) They all have made billions, maybe trillions, and accomplished nothing!
It is time for the U.S. Government and the People of the United States to make their own policies, not pay Think Tanks like: Rand Corporation, Hoover Institute, Brookings Institute and people like Henry Kissinger and Zbigniew Brzezinski etc. They are the ones that created the Islamic Militant Force and the rationale to destabilize or invade countries if the "Flow of Oil" was ever threatened or if U.S. Capitalist Interests were threatened.
The report describes a rigid reliance on economic, military and political progress indicators regarded by the authors and interviewees as too often lacking in real meaning.
What happens when you cross the totally corrupt Karzai regime with half-assed American political, military and intelligence bureaucracy plus a dash of hubris and the dregs of George Wanker Bushism? Why, you get VICTORY. I expect to be celebrating V.A. Day any day now . . . any day now . . . any day now.
Occupations are usually destined for failure, especially in a tough place like Afghanistan, where 10-year-old boys can not only shoot a gun with skill, but can build one. And to try to do it on the cheap, and managed by a gang of proven morons, you get down to gropping at straws to justify and rationalize.
This RAND report makes it all too clear that the US military has not learned one single lesson from the mess we created in Vietnam. Since all we are doing is alienating the locals and thus creating more insurgents/jihadists, we cannot go along with Obama's theory of "winning" in Afghanistan by sending more troops. It is past time to face reality and get out of there. If we don't, we will only be making the same mistake the USSR did in getting bogged down there, which is one of the reasons the USSR bankrupted itself and dissolved. Do we really want to do the same to ourselves, after our successful campaign to create the mujahadeen with Osama as its leader?
The only possible good we can do is to send people for reconstruction and assistance. But first we need to legalize the drug trade, so that it can be regulated and taxed. Since the US is the largest consumer, I have read, of the poppies, then we can assist their economy best by legal trade in it. Of course, we will benefit at home by not paying billions of our tax money to incarcerate drug users after we decriminalize its use at home.
Margalo
I agree with everything you write, Margalo, except I think there should be an honest effort to replace the poppy with some other viable food crop that could be bought, traded and exported for the same amount of money or more that they receive for the poppy/opium crop. The actual farmer probably receives very little of the multi-million dollar profit. The crops raised there could be used for humanitarian purposes in western Africa, possibly, or other ravaged areas of Eurasia.
John,
It is my understanding that even if the farmers do not get a large percentage of the poppy crop it is still a much greater profit than other food crops. One thing to keep in mind about Afghanistan is that it is largely a high desert mountainous area where not much can grow very well.
The cash crops are wheat--too rocky, rice--not wet enough, specialty veggies--wrong climate. Maybe they grow some dal (small beans).
Margalo
The French export great cheese, wine, Brazilians great coffee, Cubans great cigars, Germans great cars.
America's great export is WAR. And they hate competition.
This is interesting.
I contend that the Taliban and local Afghanis have found a way to usurp US intelligence gathering.; namely overwhelm the system with misinformation.
Never criticize a man until you've walked a mile in their moccasins - Native American proverb.
WTF
Good post! I have always found US intelligence gathering to be an oxymoron since before Viet Nam. Our intelligence then wasn't exactly first rate.
Yea, that's right. Bureau chief for Time Magazine in Saigon reported directly to Ho Chi Min, after getting all the inside dope from CENTCOM.
We seek what we lack, in more ways that one - apparently intelligence. the mirror world of war in which the first casualty is the truth.
Notice that all the countries with troops in Afghanistan are countries run by White men
Well....Obama is half black. Empire being and EOE and all.
"It depicts commanders in the field being overwhelmed by information on hundreds of contradictory databases, and sometimes resistant to intelligence generated by its own agents in the CIA."
The question arises: what agents? The retired officers called back after 9/11 making 200 grand a year sitting around at headquarters in D.C. drinking coffee and "surfing the web"? Or the the non-existant Pastun speaking operatives handling useful local agents on the ground in the Swat Valley or wherever?
Why are U.S. forces not sharing intelligence with other NATO commanders?
They don't have any that passes a payola, drug or joke test.
RE:
The Human Factor; Inside the CIA's Dysfunctional Intelligence Culture by Ishmael Jones; Encounter Books, New York & London, 2008
Setting aside the oxymoron of "Military Intelligence," as I have said before, amongst other things, we need to change our thinking and our language. For the US government and the press, every person that takes up arms in any way to protect himself and family, or to drive the occupiers out of his country is a “terrorist” or “insurgent” and probably trained by the often sought, but never found, Al-Qaeda.
If we had enough empathy in this country to realize that most of the violence we see in the Middle East is from people who are, to their own people, patriots! If the tables were turned and we were the occupied country, having our citizens shot and our towns bombed by the invaders, we, too, would be “terrorists” and “insurgents,” planting IEDs, cutting throats, sniping, anything to drive the invaders and their Quisling officials out of our country.
So it has been with any occupation. If we cannot learn to sit down and talk these things out; to at least come to a mutual understanding, we shall just go on, spending huge sums to kill each individual patriot until we run out of money.
Afghanistan has been eating foreign armies since the time of Alexander. They are very good at it. Ask the British. Ask the Russians. Afghanistan and Northern Pakistan are tribal areas, linked by blood and clan. They do not recognize the artificial borders set up primarily by the West. A relation killed on one side of the border will be avenged, if necessary, by a relative on the other side.
Every time we hit a village or a house with a half-million dollar Hellfire missile, hoping to kill a guy or two with a gun, the "collateral damage" has created yet another blood feud with a people who do not forgive or forget. I would not be a Russian or American tourist in either country, even in the 22nd century, for there will always be somebody who will remember.
We could be an agency for good, providing engineers, doctors and builders, but we will accomplish little at the point of a gun. It may already be too late. I watched an interview with some Afghans the other day. Several said, “We don’t want your bridges and your schools and hospitals, we want you out of our country, and out of our lives!” I think this is, perhaps, the best solution. Just bring the troops home, then concentrate on healing our own, badly damaged, country. That would be true "military intelligence."
too efffing bad ain't it? listen, anything that "cripples" our fight against the women and children of Afghanistan is entirely welcome news.
Does it really, truly never cross your conspicuously unintellgent minds that you would not be having these problems if you would just get out?
very stupid story to appear on cd.
In the history of the world,no military has ever been able to defeat an insurgent force. NONE.
The fact the the USA being the arrogant dominant nation recently deployed to many parts of the world has little bearing on the facts.
The USA except when fighting insurgent forces in its own territory (my people for example were never defeated, the USA brought "treaties of peace" to us, then we foolishly surrendered our weapons and allowed ourselves to be confined to restricted territory, but we were never 'defeated') just loves to fight, for "as long as needed" in other peoples territory, to bring 'freedom to others'; but they have never won against an insurgent force: and they lost in Iraq, and they have lost in Afghanistan, just like they lost in Vietnam and every other place they have been.
As long as there are poorly informed and ignorant Americans willing to back those fools willing to go and fight for someone else's freedom, the USA will be involved in one or another debacle, and the money used in the process should be used to improve life in the USA.
How foolish; no wait UTTERLY STUPID, is it to even think that the 'intelligence' gathered from members of the population you are invading could even be considered 'intelligence', much less used to plan 'operations'?
But then one must take into consideration that the USA --TWICE--put into the position of the 'most powerful human being on earth' , a person that could barely be considered 'intelligent', much less responsible for his own actions, or even be trusted not to blow his own speech with his own misuse of his native language---they just 'misunderestimated' his absolute stupidity. And 'history ' to him was what he had for dinner last night.
'Those who do not learn from the mistakes of history are doomed to repeat them'
Good luck America, you really need it.
The motives within the "coalition of the willing" in perpetrating death/destruction on the innocents of Afghanistan and Iraq are all highly dubious: 1.) members want to farm out their military security to the USA (hiring a thug is a no no), 2.) members want to maintain "preferred nation" trade status to better exploit the US consumption frenzy, 3.) miscellaneous bribes with Washington. Notice how Washington pushes USans to "go shopping" so that it may dangle carrot #2 worldwide. Each state has its dark element that seeks to align with Washington. Collectively they are know as the "global elite". To put the "global elite" out of commission, the people have to halt all individual exchange/association with the elite, and shift it all toward our local communities.
The only way to turn this around and achieve victory is by resorting to carpet bombing of civilian populations as they did in Vietnam and Cambodia.
Achieve victory like in Vietnam...?
Bwah Ha Ha Ha Ha ha ha ha ha ha a ha ha....!
Good one...!
dry 9:20 Are you suggesting carpet bombing civilians? I am truely interested in what would make a person suggest this
victory in afghanistan.....? dreaming after death.
Monty Python and the Holy Grail, anyone? aka the original Afghani intelligence failure:
Dubya to Taliban: We are searchnig for bin Laden. Help us.
Taliban: No thanks. We already got one!
Dubya: Turn him over or we bomb you and rearrange the rubble.
Taliban: Show us some evidence, and maybe we'll turn him over.
Dubya: Too much trouble. Charge!
Taliban: OK. Let's see what you got. BTW, bin Laden just left for Pakistan.
The US has to admit that the next evolution of Afghani government is the Taliban. We were dealing with them as a government before 9/11. Didn't they once close down the poppy farms? Its time to negotiate a withdrawal, safety for American collaborators, and a Taliban withdrawal from Pakistan. Then we get together with Pakistan, Iran, India, and maybe Russia and China to ensure Pakistan remains a bulwark against Wahabbi extremism. Rush, Sean and Glenn aren't gonna like it, but its necessary.
Leave the poppies alone it is part of their culture, heroin is not.
As far as I can see, the only strategic goal in Afghanistan has been to kill afghanis in retaliation for 9/11. That's it - that was the whole plan, from day 1. It was never anything other than a feud. Everything the US knows about war-as-diplomacy, it learned in the Civil War.
The europeans are far more effective, simply because they have been subjugating foreigners for centuries and know how it's done.
The other goal of these wars is that they are commercial advertisements for US weaponry. Other goals include experimenting with new weapons, and using up aging inventory. Gotta drop those 15 and 20-year-old bombs on *someone*, or else congress might start asking why they bought them in the first place.
http://www.users.bigpond.com/pmurray
http://www.paulmurray.id.au/ageofworms