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Published on Saturday, February 13, 2010 by Inter Press Service
The Day After Tomorrow Might Have Been Yesterday
WASHINGTON - When the 2004 film "The Day After Tomorrow" depicted the northern United States buried under tens of feet of snow following an abrupt change in global climate patterns, it cemented the association in the public consciousness between climate change and extreme weather events.
Snow blankets the area from the Lincoln Memorial toward the Washington Monument in Washington, Friday, Feb. 12, 2010, following a week of winter storms. The storms brought many climate change deniers out to decry the science of global warming.
(AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite) While the three feet or
so of snowfall in Washington and throughout the mid-Atlantic U.S. coast
this past week was a far cry from the tidal waves and walls of ice that
haunted Jake Gyllenhaal and Dennis Quaid in the science-fiction
thriller, it has nonetheless been an exceptional event – and one that
has ground the capital to an extended standstill.
As Washingtonians finally dug Friday to brave clogged metro trains and icy roads on the way to the office, one of the lasting impacts of the past week is the discussions it has provoked about how climate change has impacted the current weather - and how this weather might impact the ongoing debate here over how the U.S. government should address the threat of climate change.
Dubbed the "snowpocalypse" – or sometimes "snowpocalypse II" in deference to the previous storm that blanketed Washington in December – the scenes on the streets this past week have actually seemed eerily post-apocalyptic. Silent, monochrome and empty, they have, for some, forebode a world in which no action is taken to stem the effects of climate change.
Others, though, see the wintry landscape as undermining the direness – or even the reality – of the threat posed by climate change, which they prefer to refer to as global warming, thus underscoring what they see as the incongruences between the phenomenon and the snowy spell.
On Wednesday, for example, climate change denier Sen. James Inhofe told The New York Times that the recent weather furthered doubts over whether climate change is "unequivocal" or a human-made phenomenon.
If anything, though, the weather should help dispel those doubts, contend major climate scientists and activists.
"Record snow is not in any way, shape, or form evidence against climate science and in fact it is largely consistent with it," Joseph Romm, a former Energy Department official in President Bill Clinton's administration and the editor of the Center for American Progress's Climate Progress blog, said Thursday.
"I wouldn't want to say global warming is the cause or the sole cause [of the snowstorms]&but we are in a warming trend," he said. "It is absurd when we are in an overall warming trend that a snowstorm is evidence of a cooling trend. But the anti-science side – the ideologues – have been trying to push the idea that we're in a cooling trend and that this is evidence of that."
In fact, increased snowfall is entirely in line with climate projections, said Jeff Masters, a meteorologist with WeatherUnderground.com.
While the current storms are likely due to "natural variability" – the "jet stream this year [happened to] set up in a path that includes these cities" on the eastern U.S. seaboard, he explained – they are nonetheless historically "extraordinary" and it is reasonable to expect global warming to bring more such storms in the future.
Romm agrees. "You heat up the planet and you put more moisture in the atmosphere, you get the more intense precipitation that has been observed globally and has been observed in the United States," he said.
In Washington, this "intense precipitation" – by regional standards – has shut down much of the federal government since Feb. 5. All votes in the House of Representatives were suspended for the week and the Senate only returned to business Thursday. Any number of events have been canceled – from think tank discussions to concerts.
Washington-area schools were given "snow days" that lasted at least through Thursday and non-essential federal government employees were granted an excused leave up through Friday morning.
The virtual shut-down of the federal government cost the government about 100 million dollars per day in lost productivity, according to the Office of Personnel Management, which decides whether or not government employees will be required to come in to work.
Reports say at least 20 deaths in the mid-Atlantic region have been attributed to the storm and 4,000 homes were without power late Thursday night. Cars had swerved and gotten stuck in snow banks, post went undelivered, trash uncollected, grocery stores' shelves had been pillaged and their queues evoked numerous references to Soviet-era breadlines in local newspapers.
Somewhere between the 30 or so inches Saturday and the 10 more Wednesday night, this winter officially became the worst the U.S. capital has seen since precipitation has been recorded, with a tally of 55.6 inches of snow so far this season – a number due to increase when another flurry hits Monday.
These storms have also added another pinch of contentiousness to the climate change debate – one of the many political tempests that have haunted the city since the summer.
Perception, some fear, may be especially affected by the fact that debate over a phenomenon called "global warming" is taking place in a winter wonderland. It is possible, for instance, that the wintry weather may buoy the arguments of climate change deniers and lead to less willingness by the public to take decisive action on the issue – especially action that may be expensive or inconvenient.
Masters admits it could be a problem. "That's a difficult thing. And that's why we're here [talking to reporters], we're here to change perception and present the science," he said.
That science, said Romm, "contends you will see more snowstorms due to global warming. You tend to get more snowstorms in winters that are warmer on average."
But snowstorms will not be the only storms in a changed climate. A study in the Jan. 22 issue of the journal Science projected that while the overall number of hurricanes will decrease over the next 80 years, Category 4 and 5 hurricanes – those with sustained winds of 131 miles per hour and above – will nearly double in frequency. The most intense of these will more than triple in frequency.
Previous studies have also pointed to a pattern of fewer but more intense storms as ocean temperatures rise over the next century.
Friday morning, sun and blue skies greeted Washingtonians – from senators to cafeteria workers.
"We're not in a deep freeze. According to satellite records, this is the warmest winter on record," Romm said Thursday. "No individual weather event can be directly ascribed to global warming, but global warming loads the dice, makes extreme events more likely."
"We still have winter," he added.
© 2010 IPS North America
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92 Comments so far
Show All"We're not in a deep freeze. According to satellite records, this is the warmest winter on record"
Yup, it has touched 0F only a couple times and the three rivers and even most of Lake Erie, are ice free. Any perceptive person can see that the seasons nightime lows are at least 10-15F warmer than they used to be.
Precipitation type has nothing to do with warming. It's winter, so of course it snows, snow can and does occur in every US state - even Hawaii.
And way up North in Edmonton the temperature hasn't hit 40 below in years.
The thing the article also misses is _where_ the rain/precipitation is falling. In some parts of the world there is lots of rain, more than there used to be, in others there's not much rain at all. Is the drought in parts of Africa a 'sign' of climate change? Or is it the result of a magical fairy god who has waved his wand and is punishing them for being bad?
Of course, for some of the deniers, the refutation of science is a knee jerk reaction to a perceived threat against their religious faith. They deny the evidence of evolution, so it's not such a surprise that they'll deny the evidence of global warming. They deny the evidence that the earth is older than 6000 years, so why are we surprised they don't like the 'egghead' scientist who is telling them other things they don't want to hear; and so they refuse to listen.
Yeah, i used to hear of cold snaps in the northern tier of US states where it would be so cold that propane gas in tanks would remain liquid even at atmospheric pressure, making it useless as fuel.
And Lake Erie would freeze sufficiently solidly over so ice fisherman would drive cars far out on the lake - out of sight of land - and not worry a bit. The US side of Niagara Falls wold even, in a few winters, freeze nearly solid. People couldn't imagine such cold weather today.
Then there was the common trick in Alaska or Yukon Territory of throwing a bucket of hot water outside when it was at least -42F/-42C; the water would instantly freeze to snow in mid-air. A whole winter can now go by without it getting cold enough to do this now.
[Then there was the common trick in Alaska or Yukon Territory of throwing a bucket of hot water outside when it was at least -42F/-42C; the water would instantly freeze to snow in mid-air.]
That was a source of fun in Homesteading days in Alberta and the habit lasted until about 1990... Before thermometers were common in this part of the world they used Whiskey to see how cold it was, if there was ice in the bottle it was far too cold.
Sorry. Myth. Used to live north of the 60th parallel for many years. Tried it. Water hits the ground, even at 46 below. And believe me, it still hits -40 in Alaska and Canada's North, every year.
You didn't do it right. You've got to use something that separates the water into a fine mist or sprinkles, a watering can almost works. For best results you use a spray can. You can also use a snow machine, how do you think they work?
Although the temps do hit 40 below and lower in the very far north, they don't stay there for as long as it did in the recent past. Ten years ago (heck, 90 years ago too) in Edmonton the winters did hit 40 below and they stayed that cold for most of the winter, but not these days. The glaciers of the very far north are still melting, just like the glaciers at the lower latitudes.
I saw it done on youtube - so it's got to be true! but in the film, I think it was closer to -60F. I've never experienced colder than about -30F, during the 1993 cold snap. Believe it or not, that was all the way down in eastern Kentucky!
Hit 36 below here in Western Kentucky -- and my heat went out! Lucky I had a kerosene heater as a back-up. Still got damned cold in the house. Had to wrap up in a blanket and sit next to the heater.
Brrr.
Gary
"It is one of the secrets of Nature in its mood of mockery that fine weather lays heavier weight on the mind and hearts of the depressed and the inwardly tormented than does a really bad day with dark rain sniveling continuously and sympathetically from a dirty sky."
-~ Muriel Spark, Territorial Rights (1979)
Right, maybe another ice age to bury DC. ☺
While the snow fell, in Brazil, there was a killer heatwave. Gross idiots like Inhofe seem to think that US weather is the only indicator for global climate. In the South Pacific, there've already been 15 typhoons this season, with the current storm to eventually impact New Zealand as a rare extra-tropical storm. And the north polar region has been much warmer this winter while its cold went south as overall climate movers shifted, driven by El Nino. The ossilations in extremes are a predicted product of Global Warming, which is to say it's very probable that the areas that saw lots of snow fall this winter will see much greater than average heat waves this summer. Earlier this winter, the Gulf Stream was diverted into a channel wrapping around the western coast of Greenland, which contributed to the extraordinary cold spell that sent the UK into a NatGas supply crisis.
And so forth. Recent study by an ROV of the Pine Island Glacier that drains part of the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet reveals that the glacier has become unhinged from its grounding point on the seabed, which will greatly destabilize it and its neighbor while increasing the rate of sealevel rise. And I'm certain more drastic revelations will occur during the course of the year, just as they have for the past ten.
Events like these are wonderful. I look forward to seeing military bases flooded, right-wing think tanks emptied from lack of air-conditioning due to widespread heat-induced power outages, Lear jets snowed in, Wall Street underwater (literally).
Face it, to get a conservative to understand anything contrary to their myopic ideology you've got to literally drown them in it.
Well there now pushing to fix climate change since its affecting the military.
Eh, its a win for us anyway
For the US Military it's a fatal race to the bottom between CLimate Change and Peak Oil...
All it would take to change the conservative views on climate change is for all the lefties to start agreeing with their view.
Inhofe's brain is melting. It will assuredly blow more hot air than usual this summer.
Agreed - sure sign of Global Warming.
It is good to read something intelligent too like Karlof. We in the US seem so intent on reading the world climate change by the snow fall in DC, when all day everyday we hear that the Olympics are suffering due to loss of snow. And the southern hemisphere, wow. And we just stand by as the weather drags us kicking and screaming into a greenhouse heatwave and ice age blanket. Like Maude said years ago, "God will get you for that."
I've watched "DAT" many times as I like having the future on the big scream.
Thanks for the complement, Stonepig. One of the easiest ways to trump denialists is to use the many examples of species migration caused by temperature changes to the ecological niche to which they're specifically adapted, which is very easy to do here on the Oregon coast where I live, and is likely similar elsewhere. For example, I talk with farmers and fisherfolk quite often and always use the opportunity to ask what they've seen recently or what things they're doing to adapt to the changes already here and others to come. Their responses are always respectful and can become very detailed since their livlihood is threatened; and not one has said they've seen zero changes. Next up will be extensive flooding from all that melting snow.
"Olympics are suffering due to loss of snow..."
Here in the Vancouver area we think of snowfall as the elevation where it's snowing. After an early start to the season we have had a record warm January. My gas bill (for heating) showed 68% of last January's consumption while they said the average temperature was 6C compared with 1C.
There's been plenty of precipitation but the freezing level has often been above 4000 feet so the North Shore mountains got rain. Whistler has been OK but they had to truck in snow locally for the snowboard and mogul events.
i live in d.c. (or a mile from d.c. & work in d.c. every day.) it is a mess, but not w/o precedent in recorded history, only a tiny blip in the history of this area. there are hassles, but people are dealing.
that said, do you think the melting of the arctic ice cap would affect weather in d.c.? indeed it would, but getting people, esp. the few remaining sated middle class types in the us, to realize that their abnormal winter does not disprove global warming is a herculean task.
I live in DC, just south of Silver Spring.
It was awful, I couldn't get to the laundromat for over a week. Thank God I was able to work from home.
I'm from Florida, so dealing with 4 feet of snow isn't really something I'm used to. I can only imagine how awful DC's summer will be this year after this.
If you are from Florida, DC Summer's will be a pleasant change (I've lived in both places). Nevertheless, Summers in DC are not only horrid because the weather sucks, but the roads, Metro and sidewalks are full of clueless tourists.
Well I was here for last year's summer. It was just as oppressive, but not nearly as long (definitely a pleasant change!) And I really only need to be outside long enough to get from a bus stop to either home or work, and of course, wait for the bus.
I find it disturbing that people have become so addicted to air conditioning that when the temperatures reach 90F, they talk of minimizing their time outdoors - as if exposure to some heat and humidity will cause physical injury comparable to standing outside too long in -40F temperatures.
Somehow, as recently as just 40 years ago, people did just fine without air conditioning in the DC area.
About 700 people a year just in the US, even with all that A/C, die from the heat (heat stroke, cramps, exhaustion, and syncope). In olden times, without even fans, people would retire to the mountains or seashore if possible to get away from the deadly heat. Deadly especially to the very young (think of those kids in hot cars), and the very old.
The Capitol used to effectively close down during the summer before A/C. The Congress taking off for longer than just August.
Gary
"Weather forecast for tonight: dark."
-~ George Carlin
Well, I weigh over 400 lbs. I overheat far too easily.
Two years ago I joined my campus' Student Environmental Association when they were going to plant some salt-tolerant plants in a park in St. Petersburg. I got heat exhaustion after 10 minutes, managing to plant just two damn plants. I've learned to respect the elements, and I've learned my limits.
Stronger storms are more effectively moving tropical air farther north, which inhibits the freezing of the Arctic Ocean's ice pack, just as the stronger storms are more effectively pulling polar air south, mixing into the north (snowy) sides of storms.
I just looked at satellite maps at a site called Cryosphere Today. It's mid-February and both Spitzbergen, north of Norway, and Severny Island, north of western Siberia, have open water to their north and east. Strange!
I suspect that we're going through a runaway global methane release, a climate change positive feedback loop. The temperature heats the Arctic, which releases gigatons of methane, which heats the Arctic all the more. We can stop a real monstrosity from happening, but we will have to get Washington's attention with a 2x4.
Don't know if a 2x4 will do the trick - someone already tried a 757...
if you've watched 'the age of stupid' then you'll know it was yesterday.................
Interesting that while some try to contemplate the planning and execution of 'million man march on DC' types of demonstrations, Nature can pretty much put a halt to the workings in the Bubble, like overnight.
Don't worry, trust Mammon.
Maybe if this record-breaking winter is followed by a record-breaking summer, Washington will actually do something to lead the world in terms of global warming.
After all, if it doesn't happen in Washington, it doesn't happen anywhere...and vice versa. It's the bubble effect thing.
We have had very hot summers and very cold winters before but no leader would want to do anything about it. Bush did nothing about them and Obama has given no indication that he will address global warming any differently. Washington will need something 5 times the Indian monsoons to wake up.
"...the threat posed by climate change, which they prefer to refer to as global warming..."
'Climate Extreming' - not 'Climate Change' or 'Global Warming' is the more accurate term.
The shorthand for the effects of the bland term 'Climate Change' (whoever minds a bit of that?) is "Warmer, Wetter, Wilder" overall: "W-W-W" - with an emphasis on "Wilder". More unpredictable. More turmoil. More CO2 into the atmosphere = More sun-heat trapped in Earth's air = A degree or two up by now (C or F - who cares? Wildness still increasing) = More energy in the overall global weather.
Weather:
More CO2 = More energy = Wilder.
Get that in!
The Climate is growing more Extreme. Climate Extreming. Give it a real name, start using it - much more descriptive. I'll plug it just once more:
CLIMATE EXTREMING.
I basically agree. Though it is irksome that some otherwise smart people discourage the use of "climate change" as being too euphemistic or vague (preferring "warming"). At least "change" accurately reflects the increasing variability, even if it's not as appropriately dramatic as "extreming."
My favorite is "global weirding" – which may have been coined by Amory Lovins(?) – but I guess it just sounds too weird for most people to say. Ironically, weirdness (nonconformity) is what many naysayers seem to be most afraid of in other issue areas – you'd think they'd be worried if they thought their planet was in danger of getting weirder.
The phenomena is Global Warming which is producing Climate Change. If one is aware of these disticntions, then one should use them whenever the context is equivalent to one or the other. This is something college students should have learned in English Composition 101, or if one had a good high school English teacher. Some, particularly climate scientists, prefer to call it Anthropogenic Climate Change since the global warming aspect is being caused by human behavior, which is to say that both distinctions are combined within that term, making it almost impossible to be wrong when discussing the issue.
"Global Weirding" is a normative term, whereas CLIMATE EXTREMING is descriptive - in terms of logic.
"Global Weirding" is more the reaction of current politics to CLIMATE EXTREMING, it seems. ;-)
Smarter, I like your crack about political weirding. But I'd point out that "extreme" is just as much a value judgment as is "weird." Just sayin'.
Thank you. Thought I'd have to make the point that the more energy input into a dynamic system, the wilder the oscillations. And the climate is most definitely a dynamic system!
Of course it isn't just CO2 that is the problem. Other greenhouse gases are even more potent at creating a heat inversion factor.
Hate to say it but Climate Extreming seem a clumsy and ugly sounding neologism. And since when was "extreming" a real word?
Gary
"A lot of people like snow. I find it to be an unnecessary freezing of water."
-- Carl Reiner
Did anyone actually miss the Federal Govt.?
The White House will not be flooded by melting glaciers in my lifetime. However, the White House may well be flooded next September by another 175 mph Katrina/Rita/Wilma if it backs water up the Potomac river, across the National Mall and through the Rose Garden. Good luck with that Situation Room in the White House basement. And good luck with getting the Metro to work again.
"Sen. James Inhofe told The New York Times that the recent weather furthered doubts over whether climate change is "unequivocal" or a human-made phenomenon"
What do you expect from people who've been convinced buildings spontaneously explode into dust and then collapse and planes vaporize (as in 9/11).
Here's something interesting for you all to consider.......
I was listening to "god radio" today (that's whey my son-in-law calls it). This christian talk show host had a meteorologist phd blah blah blah climate skeptic on the show. He was actually an interesting guy and his point was that we shouldn't start acting too fast in ways that will affect the poor more than anyone else. Good point.
She however, was intent on confirming that global warming is a hoax being perpetrated by liberals and atheists. Her point being that man is god's creation and the earth and everything on it is here to serve man.
I'm sure you can all see where those conversations went.
This lady made a comment about CO2 "punching holes" in the ozone. Serious!
The climate guy tried very tactfully to point out how she might be confused but it was obvious that he thought she was an idiot, but he can forgive that because after all, he's a fundamentalist christian too. And christians are very big on forgiveness. (As long as the forgivee happens to be christian too)
My point............between fundamentalist christians and conservative business types and glen beck fans and tea partiers.......I can't see any way things are going to change by political means. It's just not gonna happen.Start teaching your children survival techniques. Grow food. Store food. Be ready to adapt. Be ready for anything.
I agree. The country has been taken over by corporations. To do so, they needed to promote ignorance in American society: hence, fundamentalists, conservatives, military Rambos, and tea partiers, have all been well-financed and have taken over the discussion in America. Anyone who says anything the least bit consistent with modern scientific, sociological, historical, or political thought gets the 'geek' label and sent to the corner of the room with a dunce cap. That's America in the 21st century. We'll just have to wait until mother nature has her say, which she always does in the end. Wait... and pray it's not too late (which odds are 50% it will be).
This is what is so interesting and even a little puzzling to me about "god radio" and the fundies. This topic seems perfect for their apocalyptic, end of days "God is punishing you" for teh gay, etc,etc. I guess the fact that Al Gore has won all them fancy libruul awards automatically trumps everything to make it a hoax? Or is it a calculated move by the televangelists to block any thoughts of burning alive on planet earth because that would stop the financial donations that insures one not burning in hell?
Oh no........I was under that impression too. It's not punishment. It's the rapture. This will be god's reward for being a "good christian". Those who tow the line with the rest of the conservative "good christians" will be rewarded by being taken directly to heaven by jesus himself. No death, no pain or suffering.....that's reserved for the rest of us non-believers. We'll have to stay here on earth and suffer. Funny that we'll be suffering for what they're doing to the planet. LOL
The ultimate irony. And they are oblivious.
Their delusions are completely self reinforcing and also completely irrational and insane. And their numbers are increasing.
Meterologists, especially weather forecasters, don't know jack about climate science anyway.
http://www.cjr.org/cover_story/hot_air.php?page=all
Right wing commentaries have pointed out how inconsistent with Global Warming all this snow is. This illustrates once more how scientifically ignorant these people are. We aren't dealing with record COLD here, people. We're dealing with record PRECIPITATION. Thats entirely consistent with global warming scenarios.
Exactly. I wonder if they know how moisture gets into the atmosphere?
Probably not, since they disdain any education other than revisionist history books hawked to them by some moron on TV and radio.
"Exactly. I wonder if they know how moisture gets into the atmosphere?"
-- God put the moisture in the atmosphere... DUH!
;-)