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TechnoratiONCE AGAIN, a controversy has erupted over how many people are being killed in Iraq. It's an important debate, not only for beleaguered Iraqis, but for Americans seeking stability and a timely exit.
Mortality figures alone can tell a compelling story. Add to that other numbers that fill in our understanding even more - such as the scale of the flow of refugees or the women widowed by the war - and we have useful information.
So what are these statistics, and what do they tell us about this nearly five-year-old conflict?
Two kinds of accounts have emerged on the question of mortality. One is a literal count, body by body, from reports in the English language press. Because the media, mostly based in Baghdad, cannot grasp most of the violence, this is an undercount (now about 84,000) even by the reckoning of its authors, the UK-based Iraq Body Count.
The second method is to go out and ask the question in surveys of randomly selected households. This has been done five times under very dangerous conditions. Surveys of this kind during war are relatively new, and, as a result, it's not surprising that the numbers they've produced have varied. But there is significant congruence.
The surveys agree that mortality is much higher than is typically held in political discussions about Iraq. The highest figure, from Opinion Business Research, a private survey firm in London, is 1.2 million through August 2007. It is also the most recent.
About 15 months ago, a survey commissioned by my center at MIT and published in The Lancet found that 601,000 had died by violence through June 2006. This figure has created a firestorm of criticism, but the methods are sound and none of the many peer reviews found anything greatly amiss. (One recalculation brought the death-by-violence total down to 450,000.)
Then last week, Iraq's Ministry of Health released its large survey, also ending in June 2006, finding that 151,000 had died by violence. But their data tables show an enormous "excess death" total of nearly 400,000 caused by the war, and a peculiarly flat rate of violence throughout the war. Because the interviewers worked for the government, it's likely that many respondents attributed deaths to nonviolent causes, in order to protect themselves from unwanted attention.
What to make of all this? The first conclusion is that hundreds of thousands of people have died as a result of the war - this seems incontrovertible. It is buttressed by the large number of displaced - some 3 million to 3.5 million caused by the war - and a reported total of 500,000 war widows.
The second conclusion, which helps us understand the violence, is that such a human catastrophe accounts for the insurgency in ways that no other explanation does. Whatever one makes of these insurgents, they appear to be fighting to defend their towns and tribes (apart from Al Qaeda's foreign operation). Violence begets violence, especially when foreigners are involved.
The third conclusion is that Iraq's devastation runs deep and wide. A generation of young men is being wiped out. Many of the most educated have left. The poverty of widespread widowhood may become chronic. The healthcare system is in shambles. Neighborhoods and towns ethnically cleansed means long-lasting displacement for tens of thousands. The humanitarian aid challenge is vast, and will last for many years.
How this affects US strategy is complex, of course, but two things stand out. First is that strategies to reduce violence against civilians and to increase economic and physical security are paramount. US leaders seem to grasp this, but their actions (arming Sunni militias, for example) may prove foolhardy.
Second, Iraq's neighbors must be part of the solution, given the scale of misery. President Bush has never embraced this idea, but it seems more and more obvious as the war drags on. Yet on Bush's recent trip to the region, Iraq was nearly absent from his agenda.
The lessons from the killing fields and refugees and widows won't go away. The sooner we fully realize the scale of this catastrophe, the better we may be able to work on reconstructive remedies.
John Tirman is executive director and a principal research scientist at MIT's Center for International Studies.
© Copyright 2008 The Boston Globe
22 Comments so far
Show AllThe death and forever maimed toll will be one of the greatest black marks in US history.
I'm sure the neocons have it all rationalized. One less enemy for Israel, and when the oil in Alaska, Texas, Mexico and the North Sea is history, we will have troops on the ground in Iraq to make certain we get at least our share, if not all, of the remaining Iraqi oil. Realpolitik most brutal.
Its all wrong. Saddam only played the anti-Israel card when he was in deep doo-doo with the Iranians, and the oil price will be the same whether its an open market or escorted from the wellheads to the US refineries by American troops and warships. And Iraq's oil will some day be history too. Its really hard to be a "proud American" right now.
One thing few if any count is the number who are suffering from radiation poisoning caused from inhaling microscopic specks of Depleted ranium, DU. We have exploded more than 500 tons of that death in Iraq. A cupful of DU is more than five billion specks of wind blown poison.
More than 600,000 of our own troops who served on the ground in the Gulf Wars are 'permanently' disabled, suffering from PTSD. That number we know for certain, how many Iraqis are suffering and will eventually die from inhaling DU is unknown. PTSD is a genetic medical term used when the patient is very sick from any number of medical maladies, but the doctors don't actually know the root cause of the problems because they don't test for DU contamination in their patients. Anyway, the number of deaths in Iraq since we invaded their country is unknown but over time it will surpass several million.
We have fired Three Billion Rounds of small arms fire in Iraq. Hey, they must have hit something once in a while! And that is just counting rifle rounds, not large-bore sniper rounds, artillery rounds, rockets, tanks, bombs from the air, helicoper rounds (hey, we now get to play the Russians in the remake of CHARLIE WILSON'S WAR!), and cruise missiles.
Any casualty is counted as an insurgent. Because all Iraquis are really "the insurgents". So remember, all those 1,200,000 dead and the 5,000,000 refugees are all "insurgents". And I know the remaining Iraquis just must love us for clearing their family member out, because they were obviously not 'good' Iraquis. 'Real' Iraquis know that the midnight knock on their door is just their new best friends, the Americans, come to make sure they are safe and secure, in their walled-up ghettos and living without those 'insurgent demands' like water and electricity and medicine and jobs and food.
And our soldiers easily recognize the Enemy by the big E pasted on the baseball caps they all wear... or by the fact they are Iraquis and out of the Green Zone. Just like they did in Vietnam.
So what we have now is just the Pacification Plan and Strategic Village Plan and Operation Phoenix Plan and on and on of Vietnam. Only this time we weren't even 'invited' into the country.
What all the apologists on the teevee miss when they say the "surge is working" (and that word "surge" was carefully picked by the Madison Avenue-Republican spinmeisters to cover up the more appropriate term, Escalation, but it is endlessly repeated like a mantra by the MSM so 'surge' has become the reality... just like the MSM does not report on the 'surge' -or escalation of bombing and strafing runs- of the air war in Iraq as it involves no American casualites and anyway thee MSM gets no information about this from the Pentagon so of course to MSM reporters it doesn't exist), is that this BushWar was a War Crime -and the Bush Administration was fully aware of this- from day one. So it is an Illegal War, and STILL IS an Illegal War. And Nothing will change that sad fact... so let's change the subject to "is the surge working?"
The Iraq 'war' cost only/around 2-trillion to date (we've been in Germany since '44, so presumably that 2-trillion only 'covers' this first-decade of a 'Newer American Century'?). So far, it has all-of-it been a huge and stunning Success-Story.
Israel is more-Secure (and positioned-now to receive oil-pipelines for Haifa-refinement/portage once Syria is toppled and S.Lebanon to the Litani&headwaters is added to an Ersatz-Israel), our Deficit is now-Doubled (a major-Goal for monied-'Interests', at-home), the Dollar is restored/'firmed' as World Reserve/Oil-Currency, the US/Anglo-Interests have kept all that Iraqi-Oil safely in-the-ground (or at-least controls whence/where it goes, and for 'how much Pricing' -- "cheap" is a no-no), we have new/fine/permanent-Bases and an ostentatious-Embassy in "the Heart of the ME" (finally!), we've positioned Iran as a new&'powerful' ME/'Arab'-Enemy for our future neo-ColdWar/ColdWar-II plunder/control of the overall-area&CaspianBasin, and we've tied-together the world's most-Popular Mythos into a fictitious GWofT and an "Arc of Instability". We've also eliminated many of the world's 'extraneous/vulnerable-population' in-Process (as a 'bonus'/Perk!), and we've cemented Paranoia and bipartisan-Fascism at-home and abroad (the most-efficacious form of Governance yet devised).
"Mission Accomplished"
Next in-line are the 'middle-income' and Civil/'Constitutional-Rights' here in the Homeland, Syria/Lebanon-'adventures', the Caspian-'prize', and 'population reductions' en-mass in the remaining 'vulnerable-Countries' on our Hit-List -- while a supposedly 'new-Admin' slashes all 'social-spending' and hosts a Recession-cum-Depression to shake-out the bit-Players. Then the NAU, deficit-reduction via 'Amero'-adoption, and all followed by a NWO benefiting forever all the "right-People/Interests".
What's not to Love?
Quite a few posters regret the loss of their beautiful country. The purple mountains and the fruited plains are still there. What's to miss? America is being plundered? America is a plunderer! The beauty of its principles: That is an illusion. The only principle is making money. Every man for himself. It has always been like that. What is actually lost is the ability to plunder at will. This has been curtailed and that is why America is declining. America has always needed an unfair advantage to suceed. That advantage is being lost.:
Theft of land is way down. Nothing since Hawaii and Alaska.
Exploitation of countries: They are fighting back, like Iraq. Latin America is setting itself free. China is moving in on Africa and by its actions will prevent the US from corrupting governments.
Monopoly of industries: Lost cars, electronics,manufacture and fighting for the airplane business. Outsourcing killing the work force.
Monopoly of weapons sales: The Chinese and Russians, and Brazil are competing.
Exploitation of immigrants: The people now see them as a danger. Fewer want to come.
The prosperity of the US is not the product of the greatness of Americans but of their success at exp^loiting people and robbing them: Indians,slaves,immigrants. aAny country that resisted unfair terms for US companies was attacked and put under a puppet. AlltThis getting harder to do. Hence the decline. Face it, it was always a facade. The US is a leach finding it hard to hook onto something
you americans are really sick and you think you are ok. you cut your own throat and don't even know it. if you had any courage you would stop buying and shut down the shitty country.
I don't know how many ways I, or anyone else, can say what a stupid, venal, murderous, inhumane, evil, dastardly, unjustified, useless, war the President unleashed on the people of Iraq and the US. I continue to be saddened and disgusted by the presidential candidates who continue to see some virtue in this pile of dung.
Isn't there any sense left at all in our once-beautiful country?
Oops! 100 billion barrels Iraqi reserves, by itself, should last us about 15 years. When Texas and Alaska are done. Maybe we are good for 20 years, then. Time to take out the Mustang GT!
Mission Accomplished. Call it a puppet state, colony, oil grab, whatever. American troops and bases are established in Iraq and will stay there until the oil is gone. Iraq is the REAL American strategic oil reserve. When the Peak Oil going really gets rough in 15 years or so, Iraq will be our bone and we're the big dog. Their 100 billion barrel reserves ought to last us more than 7 years.
If the Iraqis can't behave themselves, its on them. We knocked off Saddam for them didn't we? They owe us big time, and all we want is first dibs on their oil! Until its all gone.
We are kissing Saudi behind right now, but when things get rough we will "ensure" we get their oil too, and the ANWR and a few polar bears aren't going to get in the way of another 2-3 years oil supply. Hugo Chavez just can't seem to do anything right! We'll straighten him out, too.
Maybe we shouldn't mess too much with Iran. They might fight back, and Russia will need oil, too.
As our descendents are building levees around DC in 110deg/100% humidity, eating rationed food, with no oil to be found anywhere, they will thank us for our wisdom in grabbing what's left of the world's oil to keep the malls open 'till 11 and on Sundays, and SUVs on the road for a few more years.
The US is showing the world what happens when there is enourmous income disparity. The prison population is the highest per capita in the world. The people can no longer afford American goods, they have to buy from the Chinese. People with university education can't find work. You can't afford to be sick. Infant mortality is almost double that of industrialized countries. Two paychecks are barely enough. It is not a pretty sight.
As language becomes a label describing "reality" or a given situation, it is time that everyong thinking and writing about the illegal invasion and occupation of Iraq by America change the use of the word "war".
What is happening in Iraq is not a "war" by any traditional or legitimate terms or according to international law.
Attacking Iraq was not a defense of America.
It is one big WAR CRIME.
The death of every Iraqi as a result of American actions is a criminal offense.
And everyone who authorized or is participating in the Iraq theatre is in some degree a war criminal.
If the horrors are to ever end we must begin to understand what America has done.
The acceptable price in soldier's lives is 1-2 per day, judging from the fact that people seem to have tuned out the war at this level.
30,000 Iraqis dead is not bad.
100,000 Iraqis dead is a lot
200,000 Iraqis dead seems too much
500,000 seems like an exaggeration
1,200,000 is probably the truth and may shock a lot of people.
It is sad that it takes so many dead to make people pause.
Applied to God-blessed America, that would be approximately 15 million dead if, say, a "coalition of the willing" made up of Russia, China, Iran, North Korea and most of Latin America illegally invaded us, another 20 million wounded, and about 30 million "displaced".
Of course, said coalition would thwart any potential American terrorist insurgents by offering a few hundred dollars in tax rebates and coupons for the HD switch-over.
In 1978, I traveled to San Salvador, capitol of El Salvador. I stayed in a gated community, but there were thousands living in cardboard boxes on the edge of town. The city sits at 2200ft; every morning the homeless would go about kicking boxes to see who had frozen to death in hopes of scoring a free box. The ethics you use are the ethics you can afford, and with 5 % of its population controlling 90% of its wealth, ethics had left that country. In this country, before the Reagan tax cuts, the richest 10% of the country owned 50% of its wealth, a figure that most capitalist democracies in the world maintain to this day through progressive taxation. But in America, the richest 10% now own 72% of its wealth. The richest 1% owns more than the poorest 90%, and the poorest 40% own nothing. Such monopolistic control of the nation's wealth is dangerous for democracy. These figures do not reflect the Bush tax cuts: the top 10% may end up owning 90% of this nation's wealth. Today, many Americans are shocked by the torn social fabric and loosened morals of the past two decades. This concern translates into support for the Republican Party and its well-financed image of social conservatism. But the ethics you use are the ethics you can afford. There is really only one difference between the two parties: Democrats support more progressive taxation, Republicans support less. Neither is always correct, but one is more appropriate for a given era. Twenty-eight years after the Reagan tax cuts, Democratic control is right for the country right now.
America is being brought to her knees by many factors but all add up to one thing: Greed. The top one percent of the country that has the largest portion of the pie will hold on to their plunderings. They can invest vasts amounts of money and resources to defeat anyone who has plans to divest them of their wealth. Reminds me of the tales of Merry Olde England, one knew ones place and one stayed there, there was no chance to rise 'above' the fray. The amount of suppression ( minorities, women, labor unions, you name it)that has been unleashed on this country during the Bush Reign is devastating.
"Perhaps the greater tragedy is the plunder of America and the murder of the American Dream"
The American Dream has alays demanded an army and assassines to rid the ever-frightenable population of any threat to their desire to consume the entire planet without interruption from the rest of the inhabitants.
This truth was brought home to American households in the '60s and the success of 'optimistic' candidates comes from the national necessity to deny the atrocity that is the USA. "We're good decent folks -- it's only the lefties and commies and nasties that say mean things about us!" A little difficult for the anchorbots to smile and tell us how wonderful things are in The Village is if the actual scope of destruction & misery inflicted is shown to too many people.
whatfools is also wrong. It isn't the Iraq War that is the reason for America's problems. We've been being plundered by our government since 1776 and the America Dream has always been hollow.
Hoa binh
whatfools wrote: Perhaps the greater tragedy is the plunder of America and the murder of the American Dream.
Pretty selfish, don't you think?
Perhaps the greater tragedy is the plunder of America and the murder of the American Dream.
The Bush Administration is trying as hard as it can to hide the toll of this war from the American people.
They think the oil prize is worth all the death and destruction in Iraq, but they need to reduce the political damage it is doing at home.
The President doesn't want us to think about the people of Iraq, he just wants us to go to the mall.
Well - I heard it on talk radio - we just have to keep on killin' 'em until they stop hatin' us.