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Rand Study: Marijuana Legalization Would Markedly Cut Mexican Drug Cartel Profits
The Rand Corporation is notorious for its history of pro-drug-war studies. A report of theirs from earlier this year on Proposition 19 was full of dubious claims based on what even they had to admit were just guesses. Once again, with their newest report about marijuana legalization, the Rand Corporation buries the lede from their own study, one which strongly supporters the anti-cartel claims made by marijuana reformers. While not part of the press release, the study, in fact, backs up one of the main arguments of the supporters of marijuana legalization. The study determines legalizing, taxing and regulating marijuana could eliminate all the profits the Mexican drug cartels currently make thanks to cannabis prohibition. From the Rand Study (PDF):
A policeman cordons off a crime scene where gunmen tried to kidnap a government official outside the Topo Chico prison in Monterrey, June 11, 2010. A recent study determines legalizing, taxing and regulating marijuana could eliminate all the profits the Mexican drug cartels currently make thanks to cannabis prohibition. (Credit: Reuters/Tomas Bravo)
We believe that legalizing marijuana in
California would effectively eliminate Mexican DTOs’ revenues from
supplying Mexican-grown marijuana to the California market. As we
elaborate in this chapter, even with taxes, legally produced marijuana
would likely cost no more than would illegal marijuana from Mexico and
would cost less than half as much per unit of THC (Kilmer, Caulkins,
Pacula, et al., 2010). Thus, the needs of the California market would be
supplied by the new legal industry. While, in theory, some DTO
employees might choose to work in the legal marijuana industry, they
would not be able to generate unusual profits, nor be able to draw on
talents that are particular to a criminal organization.
Of course, this is not the story the Rand Corporation wanted to push. Instead, their press release press release was shaped to encourage the media to write stories with a fairly negative spin on Prop 19 –-and cited by supporters of Proposition 19–-that marijuana accounts for 60 percent of Mexican drug cartel profits. According to their study, which they admit is full of uncertainty, marijuana sold in the US accounts for only about $2 billion in annual revenue, and about 15 to 26 percent of all revenue for Mexican drug cartels. Not surprisingly, since California is only one of 50 states, legalization of marijuana in California alone would, they project, only cut off a portion of the cartels’ profits from marijuana. This leads to a finding by Rand–which they try to present as damaging to pro-legalization arguments–that the passage of Prop 19 would only eliminate about two to four perent of cartel profits.
Leaving the vagaries of their numbers aside, any supporter of marijuana legalization knows that you won’t fully eliminate the illicit profits from marijuana in this country until it is fully legalized and regulated. No one has been claiming just the passage Prop 19 alone would eliminate all of the Mexican drug cartels’ marijuana profits across the whole country. Prop 19 is just the first big step toward a broader adoption of a more sensible marijuana policy that denies the cartels a huge source of funding.
What is important is that even this Rand study fully backs up the inherent logic of those pushing for marijuana legalization (see page 19). The study shows legalizing and regulating marijuana in one region would effectively shut down the cartels’ lucrative marijuana trade to that location. Whether legalizing and regulating marijuana in this country would take away 60, 50, or only 26 percent of the dangerous Mexican drug cartels’ revenue is impossible to pinpoint, due to the lack of good statistics on illegal products. Whether legalizing marijuana would make the murderous cartels terrorizing Mexico $6 billion a year poorer or a mere $2 billion, I still think it is a very good idea to take the first step toward depriving dangerous criminals of billions of dollars in revenue.
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41 Comments so far
Show AllNo surprise there. Of course legalization will cut cartel profits. The problem is getting the truth to the public. The California Official Voter Information Guide is full of half truths and outright lies from opponents, and the backers of Prop 19 weren't nearly plain enough in their rebuttals.
The proposition itself includes:
"This act is not intended to affect the application or enforcement of the following state laws relating to public safety or protection of children and others:
... (stuff about school grounds, etc.) ...; Section 23152 of the Vehicle Code relating to driving under the influence; ... (stuff about minors) ...; or any law prohibiting use of controlled substances in the workplace or by specific persons whose jobs involve public safety."
It adds a qualifier on overall rights of use later:
"Provided however, that the existing right of an employer to address consumption that actually impairs job performance by an employee shall not be affected."
So based on all this, what would you predict opponents might say? Here they are, in the guide, in print:
"Proposition 19 gives drivers the "right" to use marijuana right up to the point where they climb behind the wheel ..."
"It will prevent bus and trucking companies from requiring their drivers to be drug-free."
'" ... a driver may legally drive even if a blood test shows they have marijuana in their system."
"... the worker with marijuana in his her or system may not be removed from the job until after an accident occurs."
Some of that is simply bald faced lies, while the rest hinges on the legal technicality that marijuana metabolites do not clear the body for weeks after use, although the psychoactive/intoxicating components break down at rates comparable to alcohol purging in the body.
In short, the opponents have resorted to the usual hysterical lies that have long marked "reefer madness" in America. The backers of Prop 19 need to say so *plainly* between now and November 2nd, or risk losing. And supporters, including young voters, need to turn out to vote ...
In Amerikkka there is a small vocal group that is terrified that somebody, somewhere is having a good time. These miserable souls make their mission in this life the destruction of any notion of pleasure in any form it may take.
Marijuana criminalization has become the Prohibition of the 21st Century, and like that prior misbegotten 'social experiment,' it has enriched and empowered an entire criminal class (liquor for the Mafia, marijuana is part of the product lines available from Mexican cartels) beyond any sort of recourse.
Legalization will undo one of the more egregious legal prohibitions (thanks to William Randolph Hearst, Harry Anslinger, et al.) of the 20th Century.
That the Rand Corporation hides contradictory facts in its' own report way in the back while publicizing 'facts' that the anti-drug lobby / complex wants is not surprising in the least.
It has also blurred the line between the criminal class and the squeaky clean people who profit greatly from it. Historically, marijuana criminalization has been used in a racist way against Latinos of all stripes. William Randolph Hearst was one of the biggest bigots around. His newspapers used marijuana and opium against Mexicans and Chinese Americans. He was like all the fascists in this country--create an atmosphere of fear to gain money and power. That's the business the Rand Corporation is in too.
The stoner-dealers across the street, for instance, who sell Mexican reefer.Nice guys, I might add.
Anybody acquainted with weed knows the truth of George Carlin's remark that in a room full of pot smokers you will not find anyone who wants to start a war. That is why weed is hated by the Ruling Class. A punk like Obama would of course be against legalization.
It took a study to realize this? Of course it will cut cartel profits. They will have basically ZERO market in pot. Why buy from the streets when you can grow your own or pick some up at a convenience store? doesn't take a scientist to realize that.
Nobody should ever be busted for having and using any drug. Drug use, abuse, and consequences are all health problems. Otherwise, why not cure heart disease by throwing people who have it in prison?
I know dozens of people who smoke ganja. I do not remember a single instance ever when anyone of us couldn't find ganja to buy and smoke.
It is obvious to a plastic duck that the government has lost the "war on drugs". Why can't they accept that and leave people alone? Now, they're just out to try and spoil our pleasure, and they're failing miserably at that, too.
In my experience, people who want to stop others from smoking a joint are usually very weird people with personality disorders. Too bad we have to let them vote.
Issues like this, even more than global over-population, pollution and global warming and war make me think the human species itself is hacked by some sophisticated virus in the universe. How can Californians, of all people, be talked out of experimenting with a statewide program of decriminalization; you know, to see if it works in the U.S. as well as it seems to be working in Portugal?
Stay cool. Prop 19 is going to pass. Then we can take our rightful place alongside of Portugal.Maybe we'll get high speed rail even. Does Portugal have high speed rail?
man like marijuanita is really cool but like some cop someplace is like on the take andif itwas like legal some lawyer wont get paid to like defeend somebody who like had only one joint an was getting the munchies because all th collars mix into like a patern when yu like play hendrex or like mabybe sargant peper like then yo know yur smart and gett reel thursday an like alitle bit of weeeed wount make yu due somethin stewpid an wwoww the collars getbrite an thats why if itt custless but iz jus ass gud it would be OK to not arrest some body forjus cause it would helpp like peple withh glacomma an maybe caanker and utter diseaases an stuff like that so it wood be cool to like mak et leegul an man youu no wht l meen.
Posting your finely-tuned satire TWICE was a nice touch, Earl.
Was that intentional ?
By the way, just in case you do not use cannibis, people I have known who do use it can still type and spell correctly. Of course, the next day it may not seem as profound or poetic as when they wrote it.
I've tried writing while drunk, but it didn't turn me into Truman Capote or F Scott Fitzgerald. Reefer just slowed me down. Maybe speed is the answer, but I'm too old for that anymore.
Two words "Ayn Rand"
man like marijuanita is really cool but like some cop someplace is like on the take andif itwas like legal some lawyer wont get paid to like defeend somebody who like had only one joint an was getting the munchies because all th collars mix into like a patern when yu like play hendrex or like mabybe sargant peper like then yo know yur smart and gett reel thursday an like alitle bit of weeeed wount make yu due somethin stewpid an wwoww the collars getbrite an thats why if itt custless but iz jus ass gud it would be OK to not arrest some body forjus cause it would helpp like peple withh glacomma an maybe caanker and utter diseaases an stuff like that so it wood be cool to like mak et leegul an man youu no wht l meen.
We humans are stupid.
Legalize it in all 50 states, let people grow as much as they like, export it all over the world.
We will all get out of debt, no more drug wars. Nobody gets jailed for possession,
ITS A FUCKING PLANT, IF GOD DID NOT WANT US TO SMOKE IT, HE WOULD NOT LET IT GROW HERE, WOULD HE???
COME ON CHRISTIANS BROTHERS, WHERE ARE YOU WHEN WE REALLY NEED PEACE, LOVE AND TO STOP WARS.
Why do Christians stand by and let Xians try to make God's creation illegal?
Ja provide! :-D
Rand Study: Marijuana Legalization Would Markedly Cut Mexican Drug Cartel Profits
No! You Think!
Did the Rand corporation get paid to do this study, like millions.
Shit, I would have done the study for 100000, saved millions.
Shhhhhhh! I could have wrote the report in 1 minute.
The “war on drugs” has always been about who controls the drugs not the drugs themselves. Diacetylmorphine, is pharmaceutical heroin, Desoxyn®, is pharmaceutical meth. Drugs companies have been pushing street drugs for decades wrapped up in a nice box given by your doctor.
Cannabis is different, it is natural, you cannot make a synthetic substitute that can be copyrighted. All attempts to single out THC have been a disaster. THC by itself is toxic, you cannot remove it from the hundreds of other chemical compounds that grow in cannabis and replicate the therapeutic properties.
After 70 years of propaganda even the language used to describe cannabis is a lie. CANNABIS IS NOT A DRUG - IT IS NOT A NARCOTIC - NOR A HALLUCINOGEN. It is a herb benign in effect and results to humans.
There is no lethal dose, it is none habit forming, and does not have tolerance syndrome, all qualities of a “drug”. Empirical tests of actual users confirm these results. All true scientific research (where it is allowed) confirm the positive and unmasked the false negative claims (addictive, gateway drug, mental impairment –the list goes on). All studies to claim any negative affect from cannabis is always debunked as bad science when the true methodology is reveled. So kids the facts just are not there for it to be anymore illegal than chamomile tea.
But consumption of cannabis is just a small reason for its prohibition. It is its industrial capabilities than keeps it on the top of the hit list . Legalizing Industrial hemp would put at risk these industries: petroleum, pharmaceutical, lumber, wood paper pulp, cotton, and any of the other 30,000 products that can be made from cannabis.
Prohibition all started with William Randolph Hearst and DuPont. Educate yourself and stop drinking the KoolAide learn the facts!
thanks you saved me a lot of typing
Those running prisons, manufacturing policing equipment, surveillance equipment makers and the police departments will not be happy.
As for the study, "It took them this long to figure this out!!!"
Joke :-)
At last California is thinking, because it is BROKE !!!
This country is far too stupid to do anything as logical and far-reaching in its positive effects as legalizing marijuana. Much better to continue hemorrhaging tax dollars to pay the industries that profit insanely from the endless futility of our current policies. Keep those non-violent "offenders" locked up in private, for profit prisons. Redistribute that wealth to the already wealthy. As long as the tax dollars flow up hill, all is well with the American empire.
Cannabis is less physically addictive than caffeine, while the so-called "gateway drug" theory is a complete fantasy, and it was just recently called "half-baked" as a result of a scientific study. CNN reported that Cocaine use has dropped sharply, by 30% since 2002, which is really good news. I worked in addiction medicine for years, and this is what I can advice on the matter: Any suppression of Cannabis use will be immediately followed by an increase in alcohol/hard drug/prescription drug abuse! You don't believe me? Then maybe you will believe the Big Alcohol lobby that is financing the Cannabis Legalization opponents for exactly this reason. Right now Cannabis is just simply perceived as a much safer alternative to alcohol/hard drugs, which is precisely how it should be perceived. To have a society in which there is NO psychoactive substance use is an illusion, and it will be good for our government to realize this. So then, it becomes a matter of "safer choices", just like with the sex education. And Cannabis is, without a shadow of a doubt, a much safer choice than alcohol or hard drugs! Just very recently a research study in addiction medicine has determined that Cannabis may actually serve as an "exit" substance for recovering alcoholics/hard drug addicts! And there is another extremely important property of Cannabis that the prohibitionists would love to keep secret: Cannabis use suppresses violent urges and behaviors and, as one prestigious textbook says, "Only the unsophisticated think otherwise" Then, of course, there is a potential of Cannabis in chronic pain, where other drugs may be ineffective (or physically addictive), with very important potential consequences for our wounded veterans, many of whom have chronic pain. It is also worth noting that Cannabis may have certain preventative value for such devastating conditions as cancer and Alzheimer's disease. And all this comes with no danger of overdoses or induction of a physical dependence! Let's be very happy that the cocaine abuse rate is dropping. Let's not interfere with these dynamics, and then we can possibly achieve what has already been achieved in the Netherlands where the drug overdose rate is 85%(!!) lower than in the US, and that is with much more liberal Cannabis possession laws than in this country! Maybe it is time to give up "dogma" about Cannabis, and to start listening to the experts, if we really want to lower the alcohol/hard drug use in this country, and the accompanying dependencies and overdoses!
You left out that cannabis has been shown useful in treating PTSD. Something it can be argues our whole society suffers from.
I come down on the side of 'it's none of your fucking business if I do, but if you want to shut up and be nice, I'll share', so these arguments are all sort of vaporous, to me...notice the guy taking the pot away from you has a gun on?
I include resolution to this stupidity to be rolled up in the overall 'property' revolution...
Global Start Date: September 22, 2012...no more private property, no more industry, no more drug laws...individual engagement in local resource management, community sustenance and defense...
Is rolled up a pun?
The so-called drug war is simply a way of criminalizing the population, a control tool to be used when needed, and a profit source.
You can murder someone and they don't steal your house and/or car.
Drug use is a victim-less "crime."
Don't tread on me.
Legalizing marijuana will eliminate the drug cartels!!!???
They actually pay people for these studies? Maybe I should apply for a grant to prove conclusively the sun rises in the east. I wonder how the legalization of opium would effect the Afghan war. The war on drugs is all about untraceable money. As in most wars, the generals rarely die.
This country is not stupid, The War on Drugs is an economic, political tool, which they always knew doesnt work, that greater lines the pockets of the Prison systems, Law Enforcement,Lobbyists, Corporations, and Govt Agencies designed to "tackle" this problem, however that doesnt seem to slow the land, sea, and air drug trafficking into this country, not 1 percent since 9/11, when we are supposed to be more secure.
It's designed that way. Let the lil fish get caught, while turning a blind eye to the big fish, who pay them to look the other way.
People need a "study" to figure this out?