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Low Estimate of Oil Spill's Size Could Save BP Millions in Court
WASHINGTON - BP's estimate that only 5,000 barrels of oil are leaking daily from a well in the Gulf of Mexico, which the Obama administration hasn't disputed, could save the company millions of dollars in damages when the financial impact of the spill is resolved in court, legal experts say.
Greenpeace activists hoist a flag after climbing onto a balcony at BP headquarters in London May 20, 2010. (REUTERS/Stefan Wermuth)
A month after a surge of gas from the undersea
well engulfed the Deepwater Horizon offshore drilling rig in flames and
triggered the massive leak that now threatens sea life, fisheries and
tourist centers in five Gulf coast states, neither BP nor the federal
government has tried to measure at the source the amount of crude
pouring into the water.
BP and the Obama administration have said they don't want to take the measurements for fear of interfering with efforts to stop the leaks.
That decision, however, runs counter to BP's own regional plan for dealing with offshore leaks. "In the event of a significant release of oil," the 583-page plan says on Page 2, "an accurate estimation of the spill's total volume . . . is essential in providing preliminary data to plan and initiate cleanup operations."
Legal experts said that not having a credible official estimate of the leak's size provides another benefit for BP: The amount of oil spilled is certain to be key evidence in the court battles that are likely to result from the disaster. The size of the Exxon Valdez spill in Alaska, for example, was a significant factor that the jury considered when it assessed damages against Exxon.
"If they put off measuring, then it's going to be a battle of dueling experts after the fact trying to extrapolate how much spilled after it has all sunk or has been carried away," said Lloyd Benton Miller, one of the lead plaintiffs' lawyers in the Exxon Valdez spill litigation. "The ability to measure how much oil was released will be impossible."
"It's always a bottom-line issue," said Marilyn Heiman, a former Clinton administration Interior Department official who now heads the Arctic Program for the Pew Environment Group. "Any company wouldn't have an interest in having this kind of measurement if they can help it."
The size of the spill has become a high stakes political controversy that's put the Obama administration and the oil company on the defensive. In congressional testimony Wednesday, an engineering professor from Purdue University in West Lafayette, Ind., said that based on videos released Tuesday he estimated that the well was spewing at 95,000 barrels, or 4 million gallons, of oil a day into the gulf.
The Obama administration Thursday demanded that BP publicly release all information related to the disaster.
BP officials had pledged in congressional testimony to keep the public and government officials informed, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano and Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lisa Jackson said in a letter to BP chief executive officer Tony Hayward.
"Those efforts, to date, have fallen short in both their scope and effectiveness," they wrote.
That letter came after members of Congress made similar demands of BP, leading to the release Tuesday of the new videos. One showed oil still billowing from one underwater pipe, despite an insertion tube BP now says is capturing 5,000 barrels of crude a day _ its entire initial estimate of the spill. The other showed a previously unseen leak spewing clouds of crude from just above the well's dysfunctional blowout preventer.
The EPA on Thursday ordered BP to switch to a less toxic version of the chemical mix it's using to disperse the oil. The EPA also for the first time posted on its website BP's test data of the dispersant's use in deep water. Those orders came days after McClatchy reported doubts about the dispersant's safety and members of Congress made a similar demand.
Scientists and environmentalists praised the government for demanding that more information be made public.
"This is exactly the role the government needs to be playing - they need to be overseeing BP's actions to assure that health and natural resources are protected, as much as possible, and that information is available to the public," said Gina Solomon, a senior scientist with the Natural Resources Defense Council.
This video, released Tuesday, shows billowing clouds of oil despite the presence of the insertion tube, visible to the right of the broken pipe
John Curry, a BP spokesman, said he hadn't seen the letter from Napolitano and Jackson and couldn't comment specifically, but added: "We're just trying to provide the information people are asking for at the same time we are trying to position a lot more resources to stop the flow of oil."
Curry offered no new estimate of how much oil is flowing from the leaks, but acknowledged that capturing 5,000 barrels of oil a day in the insertion tube is evidence that the official 5,000-barrel per day estimate is low.
"We've said at best it's a highly imprecise estimate," Curry said.
Curry said he knew of no efforts by BP to use its robotic equipment on the sea floor to measure the flow, but said that the efforts were entirely focused on containing the spill.
BP agreed Thursday to allow the posting of a live feed of the video of the oil spill, which lawmakers said would help scientists arrive at independent estimates of the spill.
"I'm sitting here looking at it right now, and it ain't 5,000 barrels a day, I'll guarantee it," said Bob Cavnar, a Houston engineer and blogger who's been involved in oil and gas exploration and production.
"In Houston, there's about 125,000, 150,000 engineers," he said. "And all the engineers can calculate what the flow is."
The feed eventually was overwhelmed by the number of people trying to view it and was removed from congressional websites.
This video, released Tuesday, provided the first public view of a second leak near the well's dysfunctional blowout preventer.
Calling the disaster site a "crime scene," Larry Schweiger, the president of the National Wildlife Federation, accused BP of a cover-up.
"BP cannot be left in charge of assessing the damage or controlling the data from their spill," Schweiger said. "The public deserves sound science, not sound bites from BP's CEO."
White House press secretary Robert Gibbs denied that the government was trying to cover up the size of the spill.
"The best and brightest minds in all of this government, and in the scientific community and in the world of commerce are focused on this problem. Everything that can be done is being done," he said.
Sens. Bill Nelson of Florida and Barbara Boxer of California, both Democrats, called on the Justice Department to investigate BP's drilling permits to determine whether the company had misled the government by claiming it had the technology needed to handle a big spill.
Since the spill, BP has announced five different approaches to sealing the leak. Three of those have been at least partially used: a 78-ton containment dome that failed; a small "top hat" dome that was placed on the seafloor May 11 but hasn't been used, and the insertion tube now siphoning a fraction of the spill. Of the two others, the "junk shot," which would fire shredded tires and debris into the damaged blowout preventer, is rarely mentioned, and the "top kill," which would force mud into the blowout preventer, may be tried this weekend.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration head Jane Lubchenco told reporters on Thursday that a team of government scientists was assembled this week, a month after the spill began, to try to come up with a better estimate of the leak's volume.
She said the 5,000-barrel estimate was based on visual observations on the surface. "As the spill increased in size and began to break up it was no longer possible to use that effort, which is why we have shifted to using multiple paths to try to get at better estimates," she said.
Scientists have the instruments and the knowledge needed to figure out the flow rate, and several have complained publicly that they were turned down when they offered to help, as McClatchy reported Tuesday.
"The decision was made that the first priority had to be to stop the flow," Lubchenco said. Robotic vehicles were being used for that purpose and there was limited space for more of them to operate there at the same time, she said.
(Margaret Talev and David Lightman contributed to this article.)



72 Comments so far
Show AllBP lowballed the estimate to save money and cover their butts legally.
Corporations. Evil in a three piece suit.
Low ball, high ball, does it really matter? Does anyone on this blog actually believe that BP is going to pay any more than a pittance for the damage they've done? In the end, we all know that the taxpayers are going to eat the cost for this.
Caleb Abell May 21st, 2010 9:33 am -- The taxpayers will pay for it in part through higher gasoline and oil prices. Is there any expectation that federal money will be used to clean this up? It's not like Katrina in that regard, is it?
I've been wondering about your first question: does it really matter? The damage caused, for which BP presumably will bear at least some responsibility, will be what it will be, regardless of the amount of oil and gas coming out of the well. The strategies for stopping the leak will be the same, whether it's 5,000 barrels a day or 50,000. If BP lies about the amount, what difference will that make, other than to BP's credibility?
A very important question, which I've yet to see discussed in the mainstream or other media, is why all these schemes for stopping the leak, such the 78-ton containment dome, the "top hat" dome, the "junk shot," the "top kill," and the insertion tube, weren't tested, put in place, and ready to go as back-ups in case of failure of the blow-out preventer. Even if there have been thousands of wells operating offshore without incident since the last big spill, a moderately intelligent person could have foreseen this disaster. The expense of getting preventive measures ready to go would have been well worth it. Certainly if off-shore drilling is to continue, it should be required to have all the means of stemming another such disaster standing by each and every well.
"Certainly if off-shore drilling is to continue, it should be required to have all the means of stemming another such disaster standing by each and every well."
Yeah, right.
No Corporation would tolerate that level of oversight, interference or loss of profit. Any Government that backed of demanded it would be toppled.
We are dealing with pure undiluted evil here, folks.
Galenwainwright... May 21st, 2010 4:25 pm -- As this situation unfolds, we may see lots of people, even Tea Partiers, asking for more assurances, from government as well as the oil companies, that it won't happen again.
concur that the leak rate is relevant to strategy...BUT the more compelling issues are pressure related..including the reservoir pressure and the pressures at the well head that must be controlled so as to not do MORE HARM.
there might be a danger in completely controlling all leakage before controlling pressures.....or we could create a sub-sea blow out of greater magnitude and impact.
just a thought for consideration....sometimes easy does it works...and this might be just one of those times.
scribe May 21st, 2010 6:38 pm -- The size of the pipe from which the oil and gas is coming is more important. The amount of the flow would be more relevant to how much storage capacity would be needed on the surface. By the way, I don't see why determining the amount of leakage would be so hard. The size of the pipe, and the rate of outflow from it, which can be seen in the video from the leak site, should give a fairly accurate idea.
Not sure if any of you caught this incredible interview Amy Goodman did with an EPA whistleblower against BP:
http://www.democracynow.org/2010/5/20/fmr_epa_investigator_scott_west_us
We are dealing with MAJOR corporate criminal PRICKS here. When a Grand Jury had been convened to investigate an spill BP was responsible for, they demanded documents and BP threw 65,000,000 pages at them!!!
These guys should be cuffed and indicted.
They most certainly should NOT be allowed to try to correct the damage they inflicted.
THIS will be Obama's Waterloo.
While the Gulf dies, Obama wines and dines the president of Mexico??!
Badly done Mr. Obama. Badly done.
Impeach Obama!
Obama is conspiring against us with BP.
Everything he says is a lie.
He most definitely should be impeached but, considering the corporate enablers in Congress, I'd say we're screwed all around.
Impeaching Obama would be like firing the CEO of McDonald's. In a few hours the board of directors would find their new CEO replacement, and the empire would roll on without skipping a beat. However, the media pundits and political analysts would definitely work overtime to make us believe that it is a huge deal that the CEO was fired and so on.
Nationalize these bad actors now
Our 'piratized' government will not Nationalize itself.
Only a Counter Coup can do that.
Hey, I mean it's not as if they can hide the evidence--at least not for long. Also, this will force congress to conduct an independent investigation. More accurate estimates of the actual amount of oil are sure to be forthcoming.
Yep, the evidence is washing ashore and in the gulf stream now...
BP may be facing bigger problems with a boycott, possibly world wide if the oil spreads far enough. I wonder what effect the disaster has already had for them at the pumps. I had a BP-Chase credit card, and used to get gas credits as a percentage of what I charged. I'll never get gas at BP or use their card again.
It will be surprising if BP will actually pay significantly for the damage they have done. Exxon was able to litigate the Valdez disaster for 20 years and reduced the original award drastically. Regulatory violations are usually just a few million dollars which do nothing to deter bad practice. It would be much better to pull the charters of corporations that have consistently bad records like BP. They have many more than three strikes.
This insightful article depicts Our American wisdom seriously lacking--at lease regarding this BP, USI, WAR, and OIL fiasco we find ourselves in when finally awake.
That's why I'm glad that this is an international situation concerning the blotched oil well disaster we are still enduring after how long--reminds me of the 2000 election results taking so long--but here of course you have an ignorant accident--where as in that result The American Dream became the AMERIKKKAN NIGHTMARE.
As a Gulf Coast resident I am particularly heart-broken--it as if MILITARY/ENERGY is almighty and will reign forever, yet I know even this shall pass away.But try telling the gods of war/oil that.
The point being now that it is in international waters it is now the whole world's concerned and should be opened up for the health and welfare of the planet that this disaster continues to threaten our lives still is an outrage in itself. We need a world court to decide who is responsible for this O'bomb ur nation, I mean abomination.
Court figures will reflect the actual oil in the Ocean.
This is just beginning, all those plumes will come to the surface.
Everybody, everybody is realizing 5000 barrel was way, way off.
Everybody is realizing BP and the media and the Prez; all lied to them. GOOD!
In Quantum Physics the Uncertainty Principle is based on the theory that you need the shortest highest energy light waves to see the smallest things, but those high energy beams interfere with the atoms being observed so that the momentum and position of the atomic particles cannot be seen together.
Now they are using this logic to avoid a real estimate of the spill as if knowing the scope will interfere with their work.
"BP and the Obama administration have said they don't want to take the measurements for fear of interfering with efforts to stop the leaks".
But we now know that the measurements will not interfere with anything, but only increase the liability for BP and their contractors.
I am defending no party, however:
we certainly do not want to run the risk of displacing or disturbing the riser by the bop...or this sucker could go unrestricted full-bore...
the leakage or spill, is not occurring at a constant rate, nor is the gas:oil ratio of the leakage necessarily fixed...
accuracy would demand a RANGE, not a bpd numerical figure....BUT that said, BP and our government are in this together...
was hoping we might have learned from other ocean and gulf spills before we began dumping/spraying corexit: Mother Nature does more effective, less hazardous clean up than we do.
Has anyone calculated how much $$$$$'s BP has lost so far from the spilled oil itself, how much it continues to lose each day, and an estimate (depending on how much oil they figure is down there) of what their final loss will be when the oil finally runs out? At today's market prices, of course. I'd be curious to know.
When will this oil run out?
It seems reasonable that pressure of gravity from one mile of ocean on top of 5 miles of sea bed will keep squeezing out the oil and gas until the underground lake of oil is reduced to the point of equal resistance to the Earth's gravity.
By that time, the Moon might be next housing bubble.
You are correct Scribe. It is considered the largest reservoir second only to the Saudi Ghawar Field whose actual size and production is a closely held secret. Once thought to hold 35,000,000,000 Bds of oil. It is clearly much larger.
A new BP discovery in the Tiber Prospect could be the largest oil find of all time.
The well is 35,000 ft deep and contains 15 reservoirs one on top of another and could contain 3 trillion Bbls of oil.
If the current blow out is allowed to continue it could be 20-30 years before it is depressurize as it is thought to been drilled beyond the 20,000 ft agreed to in the lease. it of course could be less. BP holds this information tightly.
I'm sorry I asked. I think I'm going to be sick all over again!
Meanwhile the new "Golden Boy" one Rand Paul claims Barack Obama is being too tough on BP and that it un-american to attack big business in such a manner.
I don't see him winning in November.
His mouth is gold for the Dems.
Just for Kid at the DoE website:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/
kids/energy.cfm?
page=oil_home-basics
~~~~~~~
When you are at your favorite beach in Florida or California, you are not at the very edge of the country.
Although it might seem like the ocean is the border of the United States, the border is actually 200 miles out from the land. This 200-mile-wide band around the country is called the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
In 1983, President Reagan claimed the area of the EEZ in the name of the United States. In 1994, all countries were granted an EEZ of 200 miles from their coastline according to the International Law of the Sea.
... The EEZ is part of the United States. The Federal government manages the land under the sea on behalf of the American people.
The United States Minerals Management Service (MMS) leases the land under the ocean to producers. These companies pay MMS rental fees and royalties on all the minerals they extract from the ocean floor. Individual states control the waters off their coasts out to 3 miles for most states and between 9 and 12 for Florida, Texas, and some other States.
Thank you for this most informative post. I shall post it on my website.
That 5,000 BBL recovery fabrication is less than half that number.
But not to worry as the BP Engineers are planning a so-called "top kill" operation.
Will senior execs on both sides of the Atlantic be concerned? This farce is killing us.
That 5,000 BBL recovery fabrication is less than half that number.
But not to worry as the BP Engineers are planning a so-called "top kill" operation.
Will senior execs on both sides of the Atlantic be concerned? This farce is killing us.
Why is it that Obomber does not dispatch a Navy submarine to the site of the spill with the mission of taking proper video footage of the leak? This footage would then be submitted to competent independent scientists for examination and analysis?
(I had to raise this question, although I realize it may be considered naive.)
Oikos, i don't know the depth that navy subs go. But even if they could, and perhaps they have. The point is that 'we' aren't supposed to know. I am certain that the players all know. All too 'well'.
We will know when they set off a nuclear device to seal the hole. The engineering for this scenario was calculated in the 50's when nuclear excavation was considered feasible.
I have notice the meeting of the nuclear club has taken place as the ministers from the big 5 all took trips on the same day. Just look it up.
This won't stop until WE stop it. We need to meet en-mass in Washington to make something happen. Such a trip would probably kill me as I am in failing health but it would sure be a good way to go if anyone else is going would pick me up.
After all, this is the screwed up nation I am passing to my children and frankly have done less than stellar in protecting it for them.
Patrick A. Crothers
Patrick, i have suggested the same. On another post.
I hope you make it if it happens!
Thank you. I do little else but gently waken my fellow American Patriots from the slumber that they have had cast upon them. Americans are good people of which a few do some very bad things in our names. I will say it over and over again until I run out of life or they stop me from doing so. I am too insignificant in my own mind to Warrant attention; yet, my phones have been tapped (even crudely) and I have a whois report on an invader who got past my firewalls. I called the technicians phone number listed on the Whois report and got an auto-reply, "State Department Phone 53."
If you use a software such as McAfee then you can see who is attempting to gain control of your computer. It is just 4 sets of numbers, an example of which looks like this... 190.186.1.255 (not a real web address) but you go to whois.com and enter them and it tells you who the number is registered to.
We must protest this, the worst man made disaster since Chernobyl.
We must gather and peacefully demonstrate and show them we are here and alive.
Our children's fate is in our hands and our government, our Republic, is being held by those who only wish to steal what we have and enslave us to do their will.
Patrick A Crothers
Folks, please think seriously about boycotting BP. Try not to purchase BP gasoline any more.
Has anyone checked out the home page of BP's website?
Listed on the sidebar is the question: "Do you have any ideas to help us?" along with a phone number to call. Apparently,"the best and brightest minds in all of this government, and in the scientific community and in the world of commerce" need a little help.
To the EPA - Impose "discretionary debarment" NOW!
(see headline story)
One cast of characters not heard from as yet.
Private contractors. Where is Blackwater aka Xe, for example? They were on the scene for Katrina.
That just occurred to me.
scribe, i just heard that in fact, BP has its own private contractors.
They are the only one's allowed to touch and see the contaminated creatures. Environmental groups are blacklisted.
BP's estimate that only 5,000 barrels of oil are leaking daily. Well...sort of. Looking at it another way, there is at LEAST 5,000 barrels leaking daily. The maximum daily leakage is, of course, much higher. Telling lies is the MO of BP.
"BP and the Obama administration have said they don't want to take the measurements for fear of interfering with efforts to stop the leaks."
By all means, keep us in the dark. That's just another way to lie.
The real culprit in this disaster is Ronald 'Tear Down those Solar Panels' Regan along with the rest of us. Just can't seem to stop Jones'en on the oil.
Terran
Yeah, Reagan was the beginning of the real, serious, accelerated take-over of this country by unregulated corporate power and that stupid, macho-american, arrogant exceptionalist, anti-ecological worldview that needs to be tossed in the garbage.
I would love to see just how loud the horns of war would blow if it was Cuba that punched a hole in the ground and soiled the entire Gulf. Oh the reparations that WE'D be demanding from them.
Self-righteousness is blatantly swathed in hypocrisy, isn't it?
Yeah, there is always that hypocritical double standard, and the media NEVER go into it.
Reports today say that the projections of the OIL spill will bring it to ........."the Arctic and Europe".
the nations should bring a few things:
1) an international organized "CLASS SUIT" against BP AND the United States of America.
2) an international organized "CLASS SUIT" against BP AND Britain
3) separately bring "CLASS SUITS" against the same two entities.
4) lest the "shareholders" of BP think they can get away with it behind the "corporate personhood" clauses -- bring Class suits against the Shareholders, boardmembers of BP - wherever they are.
and then let BP and America try to handle all of that.
of course that is likely not going to happen anytime soon...until the ordinary citizens of nations see the consequences not just washing in their own shores - but its other effects on economies, livelihoods, natural environment, etc...
THEN ....maybe they will "act".
Then Rand Paul is gonna hate you dude.
""What I don't like from the president's administration is this sort of, 'I'll put my boot heel on the throat of BP,'" Paul said in an interview with ABC's "Good Morning America." "I think that sounds really un-American in his criticism of business.""
teddy, i have been thinking about the same thing. A global class action suit against the u.s. Or by specific governments.
Then, the u.s. will declare bankruptcy.
I sometimes think that too.
with all due respect to the hard work of everyone that has ever lived and built lives and as honestly as they could simply do what they had to do within the confines of their own understanding of being an "american" --
i am always reminded by the remark by John Perkins, former CIA "economic hitman" :
"What most americans do not really understand or admit is: we are living our lifestyles ONLY BECAUSE it is part of a very, very vicious system of exploitation that dehumanizes and enslaves people EVERYWHERE".
it is CLEARLY an indictment of the very PROSPERITY and power that the USA has "built" (regardless of the innocence of americans of what had to be done "in their name" - so they can live "the american dream" - THINKING and fully believing that america's might and wealth and prosperity is PURELY because of "good old american hard work and enterprise").
and indictment that THIS VERY SAME "all american prosperity built from enterprise and hard work spirit"
COULD NOT POSSIBLY have reached ANY of its stages of "superiority" comparable to other nations at ANY stage in its growth and evolution
WITHOUT ALSO the ACCOMPANYING , "very, very vicious system of exploitation that dehumanizes and enslaves people everywhere".
and for that reason - if one were to ACCOUNT for each single life and lost potential and treasures taken from other nations and the lost wealth because of the way america has systematically DEVALUED other nations in its manipulations and coercions and intimidations and threats and wars, the USA -- were it made to REALLY pay for the FULL and TRUE value of nations and peoples sacrificed for the sake of "the american way and power and prosperity due to american enterprise and hard work" --
america, imo, would NEVER be able to repay that full value.
it would be PAUPERIZED many times over as the TRUE VALUE of those peoples and places that america has DEVALUED would have to be RESTORED -
and in THAT restoration of their real values....its CORRESPONDING BALANCE - would be AmericanS' OWN value RESTORED to its TRUE balance in comparison - which would then be FAR LESS than americans have made it or have believed it is!
if the value of a labor-hour by AN american for the SAME job - say : making a pair of shoes, or counting numbers for the SAME result :
1+1= 2..
in the course of time and generations, imagine alone how much one BILLION chinese laboring in the same way that americans are , would COST america.
one billion chinese workers whose value of labor alone is given the same dollar as corresponding americans
would mean :
one billion dollars for one billion chinese....to 300 million dollars for 300 million americans.
WHICH country , then , in REAL TERMS - outside of the MAKE-BELIEVE world of "values" of capitalism
is actually the WEALTHY one? and has the greater "wealth of nations"?
consider that . and consider america having to REPAY all of that .
and we are not YET talking about the NONHUMAN treasures of countries which were DEVALUED against the US DOLLAR in order to force the world to "service the US dollar" and by that --
TRANSFER their TRUE VALUE of resources OVER to the USA through the magic of "capitalist" monetizing.