Iran's Road Less Traveled to Nukes
Thomas Fingar, the U.S. government's top intelligence analyst, in a public speech on Sept. 4, repeated the intelligence community's key judgment that Iran's work on the "weaponization portion" of its nuclear development program "was suspended" in 2003.
Not that the Fawning Corporate Media (FCM) has exactly trumpeted this important conclusion. One has to read down to paragraph 16 of an article titled "Reduced Dominance Is Predicted for the U.S.", but there it is, right there on an inside page of September 10's Washington Post. The New York Times did not consider Fingar's remarks fit to print.
Yet, it is the 64-dollar question -- whether or not there is evidence that Iran has resumed work on the weapons part of its nuclear program since the startling judgment of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) of November 2007 that it had stopped. The Post's Joby Warrick and Walter Pincus quote Fingar as saying there is no evidence that Iran has resumed the weapons work.
For those who do not remember, Fingar was head of the State Department's intelligence unit in 2002, when he courageously resisted the efforts of super-analyst Dick Cheney and his tool, then-CIA Director George Tenet, to manufacture -- out of whole cloth -- a "reconstituted" Iranian nuclear weapons program. Despite Fingar's resistance, that judgment appeared in the Oct. 1, 2002 NIE on Iraq's "continuing" weapons of mass destruction programs-an estimate dubbed "The Whore of Babylon" by those intelligence analysts powerless to stop it.
Fingar, who is now head of the National Intelligence Council and supervises the preparation of NIEs and the President's Daily Brief, spoke in Orlando at a conference organized by the Intelligence and National Security Alliance, an association of public and private sector leaders of the intelligence and national security fields. His remarks, particularly those during his evening keynote address on Sept. 4, are well worth a read-particularly for those numerous observers who may have concluded that articulate, trenchant analysis of world trends is a thing of the past.
In remarks earlier that day, Fingar made it clear that he had set a new tone when he took over as chief substantive analyst for the intelligence community. No longer would he tolerate using quantity of intelligence products as a measure of effectiveness. The intelligence he was/is determined to provide had to be, in his words, "more useful...It had to be on target...It had to be there at the right time, in the right place, with the right information, with important insights...We had to know exactly what our customers needed."
Even if they did not want to hear it, he might have added.
The gutsy NIE of November 2007 stated that, contrary to what President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney had been saying throughout 2007, the nuclear weapons-related portion of Iran's nuclear program had been stopped in the fall of 2003, and as of mid-2007 had probably not been restarted.
The good news was that, at the insistence of our most senior military, who realize what a debacle it would be to attack Iran, the NIE judgments were made public. More good news: Fingar was not summarily fired.
The Bad News
Tom Fingar plays third fiddle to Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell and his principal deputy, Donald Kerr. It is those two (God help us) who brief the president six mornings a week with the President's Daily Brief. On a substantive sophistication scale of 1 to 10, Fingar is close to a 10, in my view; McConnell and Kerr are somewhere between a 3 and 4. They spent most of their previous intelligence careers running satellites and other technical collection activities.
McConnell, while testifying before Congress shortly after being confirmed in his new job, seemed mystified as to why Israeli intelligence on Iran's nuclear program should be more alarmist that U.S. intelligence judgments. As for Donald Kerr, one need only read his vapid remarks before the pro-Israel Washington Institute for Near East Policy on May 29, 2008 to get a sense of how little he brings to the substantive table.
Kerr took an interestingly different line on Iran, consistent with talking points handed out to the New York Times and other FCM a few days earlier. Rather than repeating what the NIE of November 2007 said, Kerr was agnostic about whether the Iranians had restarted weapons-related activities ("we do not know" became the phrasing).
The relevant NIE key judgment reads: "We assess with moderate confidence Tehran has not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007..." (On Sept. 4, Fingar seemed to be subtly updating that conclusion to mid-2008.)
The Kerr kind of fudging makes it easier for not only Bush and Cheney, but also lesser lights like Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Joint Chiefs Chairman Mike Mullen to obfuscate on this key question.
Gates claims Iran is "hell-bent" on developing nuclear weapons. Mullen has been more discreet. Cheney (and presumably Bush) no doubt would like him to sound more alarmist, but Mullen and other more sober characters have settled on the curious formulation that Iran is "on a path" to nuclear weapons.
Strange path, with Iran's weapons-related activity stopped. At very least, it would appear to be a highly unusual "path" -- one might say a Road Less Traveled to nukes.
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18 Comments so far
Show AllBlue Thunder
myconscience voiced my conscience in succinct and common sense language...thank you myconscience for your words of wisdom and may the collective spirit of humanity prevail against those who commit and plan crimes against humanity, the earth and God! We could start with Bush/Cheney/Mccain and their cabal.
P.S. Since there are prophecies from a rich array of diverse sources that speak of the times we are living in as a major TURNING point for mankind, on the SOUL level we all elected to be here for this "big one." At times most of us languish (I know I do) that we're not doing enough, that our voices/actions are not being heard or felt... and yet we don't necessarily recognize the degree to which our holding the LIGHT of truth, justice, and peace impacts the energetic equation.
I remember an article in this forum about a powerbroker who reversed his positions (in favor of those most progressives would applaud) because he was moved by seeing the same single protester to war outside his office window on some busy street corner day after day. One tiny rippling stream can cut through the densest rock formation... over time. Therefore it is important that just as we exercise to retain muscular strength and stamina, we likewise do what it takes to refresh our OWN spirits, that we can keep the torch of TRUTH lit. Any illumined or awakened soul recognizes that life is a shared fabric of creation, and whatever is done to the least of these (egregious foreign policy, too much hunger in the world, the privatization of water and so forth) is done unto all. We understand that there IS enough to go around, that SYSTEMS of power have turned person on person, and that there ARE other ways to organize societies. Our vision for what is possible, even if we feel like that drop of water, continuously dripping, is itself a GIFT to the world, for it holds the template of what is possible... against all seeming odds to the contrary.
MY CONSCIENCE: I agree with your 9:15 AM posting. The astrological overview also agrees, but here's the caveat. Saturn is understood in the LOGOS as the planet that represents karma, individual and collective. It "rules" the sign of Capricorn. In the past 25 years ALL of the outer planets (Saturn, URanus, Neptune and soon Pluto) have or will have passed through that sign. Capricorn consolidates power into STATE authority. It is by nature a conservative sign, one based on fear and CONTROL of the masses. Its dark side is paranoia, hence the "police state" apparatus, including surveilling citizens. Unfortunately Pluto (known as the "upper octave of Mars") can bring warfare and state controls to a whole new level due to the technological inroads of the 21st century, diabolical as they are.
Saturn's cycle is 29 years. I do NOT see it as a mere coincidence that 7 of our solar system's 10 "players" were all assembled in Capricorn for the January 15, l991 eclipse. That happened to be the day Bush the first began the debacle in Iraq. So 29 years from that phase = 2020, which happens to be the year of the next "great conjunction."
Those who understand astrology would agree with me that Jupiter and Saturn are arguably the agents of cosmic "law and order." Saturn has a strong affinity with the Old Testament, its postulate: As ye reap, ye sow (which accords with the law of karma). In contrast, Jupiter represents the thesis of the New Testament: According to your faith, it shall be done unto you. Saturn's orbit is 29 years while Jupiter's is 12, so they meet every 20 years. They met in Taurus in 1940 and that happens to be when the nazis made tremendous inroads into biogenetic engineering. They met a 2nd time in Taurus in 2000 when the Supreme Court alloted to for-profit genetic engineering companies the COPYRIGHT (as if it's intellectual law!) to seeds and genetic blueprints! This is a HUGE sin against nature, an absolute HEIST of the banks of time, on a vast biological scale.
So Jupiter and Saturn will meet in Aquarius, the sign of the "new age" dawning; and also one of synergy, of brotherhood/sisterhood and the embodiment of a theme illustrated in the marvelous Star Wars trilogy: that of unusual players working together to take down the death star (Mars rules/the militaristic order of our present world system).
We have 11-12 years until 2020, and in the next 7 there are indications of what the Christians call "tribulation." Of course by electing to grant their faith to a model that puts peace last and war first in purported homage to their god, they have indeed "brought it on." By that I mean, the courting of a bona fide Armageddon. Note the parallels between the military strategy (if it could be called that) of M.A.D (mutually assured destruction), and that of End Times (the idea that it's GOD'S will that there be massive war in the holy land to establish the "one true god"). Seeing the parallels between these two anti-life and quite insane belief formats, it seems quite plausible to me that the CIA planted some of their own in the Christian ministries. Funded these snake oil salesman, gave them TV & media platforms and indeed the flock of sheep came. Build the deception and they will come, style! And now, this block of 40 million plus voters can be counted on to favor any shipwrecking, pro-military fool who's placed on the "stage." Elections, sure... it's the end product of a long planned system of brainwashing that made use of the already authoritarian-style thought process of a good segment of the population, and melded it with a foreign policy that works for those elites who directly profit from war. THAT is the anti-Christ... not a person, a policy that has caught so many millions in the drift net of its dire intentions.
Cicero: "Freedom is participation in power."
Nowhere have Bush, Cheney, Powell, (Condileeeza's too neurotic & vacuous to even count), and, in their day, Clinton, Warren Christopher and Madeleine Albright been more intensely stupid than in their dumbed-down, un-Statesmanlike attitude toward Russia and how that single-track pipeline-mindedness figures into Amurka's and Russia's relationship with Iran and the other former Soviet satellite States.
That's third on the priority list down from (1) global environmental degradation moving toward uninhabitability for humans, and (2) over-populations, especially in the 3rd World, and their resource pressures on (1).
But if there are any policy wonks left alive 100 years from now they will still be shouting about how two successive Amurkan prezdints blew U.S./Russian relations out of the water for no sane reason and forked Iraq over to Shiite influence from Iran with a pointless, multi-trillion dollar illegal occupation bloodbath. The Iraqis just threw out another no-bid oil deal with the U.S. oil majors and I don't see the natural gas deal they just cut lasting any more than the illegal Kurdish deal with Bush's cronies, the Hunts. None of those deals are any more secure than those pipelines that run from Baku through formerly Russian ruled Georgia. The corporatist money-tied inability of our domestic misgovernment to solve domestic crises is equaled by the consistent failure of our McPresidents to formulate or implement intelligent foreign policy.
To bbr-001: I'd like to see your source re: "The Russians have largely completed a nuclear reactor in Iran, and have supplied enriched uranium. They recently stated it will be running within months. Russian technicians were pulled from the site at one point but apparently are back at work."
Why would the Russians need to supply Iran with enriched uranium when they are constructing centrifuges that will enrich it themselves? The Russians had previously offered (to the international community--ignored by the unilateralist neo-cons) to transport ALL of Iran's spent nuclear fuel from their reactors back into Russia for storage so Iran could not further enrich it. That deal, like Iran's two offers to have high-level talks putting everything on the table, was ignored by the Cheney Oberkommand in the White House.
The Russians have largely completed a nuclear reactor in Iran, and have supplied enriched uranium. They recently stated it will be running within months. Russian technicians were pulled from the site at one point but apparently are back at work.
Putin's recent statement (South Ossetia occupation) about US missiles in Poland and adventures in Georgia indicates he will protect Russia's interests. He may be even looking for another excuse to flex some muscle.
Israel has state-of-the art US fighter-bombers, but burdened with bombs and on the radar for hours, they would have a really hard with Russian SAMs and not a chance with a sky full of MiGs. Could be ugly, and the US would have to "blink".
If Israel decides to bomb Bushehr 1, the nuclear power plant, it will not be Russians that they will face, it will be the Iranian military.
Comparing Russian intercession in Georgia with military action in Iran is an apples and oranges sort of discourse. Supply lines and overflights above neutrals et al would make such Russian intercession illogical. Iran has a million men under arms you know....Hyperbole never helps rational discourse and facts trump emotionalism every time.
We see things, not as they are, but as we are.
Anais Nin
I am still waiting for the defining moment when the world decides, "Okay, America! That is the last straw!"
When will China and Russia join the others in a new paradigm to end America's child-king rule that is currently messing up the planet? Will it be over Iran's powerplant?
What if the Russians and Chinese intercepted and shot down the Israeli jets? What would Bush do? Talk more tough words?
What if Putin decides, "Oh hell with it. I'll just simply give the Iranians a few nukes to shut America up."
I hope Iran prevails over the sorry ass country called the USA!
That doesn't surprise me...are you a citizen?
I am not a nationalist per se, but I cannot agree that America is a sorry ass country. No country deserves such a label because it allows bitterness and hatred to rationalize murder on a mass scale when we hate a whole country: Axis of Evil.
America has some great ideas and some messed up ideas. The work ahead is sorting out the bad ones..."America First" is not a good motto heading into the 21st century. "Humanity First, Then Country" might win some hearts and minds arou8nd the world.
Our leaders are a bunch of sorry asses who impliment sorry ass policies, but the majority of the other 300,000,000 people who live here are mostly decent humans. Americans are no more or less ignorant than the average human in spite of our superior self-image.
I believe the next successful revolution will be the people of the world uniting via the internet to simultaneously overthrow the thugs who run the world. As the world keeps getting flatter and flatter...and eastern and western ideas keep getting exchanged...the moment of truth is coming...
In this forum we forget that those close to the Bush "throne" are staring right into the abyss, a heart of Darkness. The history of this administration is one of ruining careers and sometimes surreptitiously taking lives. It is VERY courageous to be even a "4," when one is standing that close to an evil that wants to be fawned over, agreed with, capitulated to regardless of the facts. Think Tenet, the man who sold all of his (tenets) for a false medal of honor. What a charade, like giving Kissinger the Nobel Peace Prize. Loyalty rewarded over competence and conscience, this group will require MANY lifetimes to begin to pay back to humanity what they have stolen, co-opted, maligned, or destroyed without remorse or understanding. The bottom of the barrel is at the top, a nation living off the yeast of old white bread... and too soon a lot of its citizens will be fighting over crumbs.
Since when does the truth matter? The absence of enough high speed centrifuges necesary to the making of weapons grade material, the lack of any effort by Iran to purchase or manufacture such equipment. The frank statements that they build nuclear power plants so as to husband their oil for export, as aside from Pistachios and rugs that is all they have to sell, means little when a coninued state of war is necesary to the control of our populace.......
I have seen Ahmadinajad heckled by his audience ( college students). I wish Id seen Bush given the same treatment.
We see things, not as they are, but as we are.
Anais Nin
"I have seen Ahmadinajad heckled by his audience ( college students)."
_________________________________________
Students? Don't forget the heckling he got from that smug, preening, grandstanding jackass, Columbia University President Lee Bollinger!
Good old-fashioned Amerikan hospitality at it's finest.
Another good piece on what's really happening concerning issues with Iran. http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article20537.htm
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is not the leader of Iran. Sayyid Ali Khamenei is. Ahmadinejad must take orders from Khamenei. Khamenei has issued a fatwa (religious edict), stating that for Iran to obtain nuclear weapons is haram (forbidden). These people are mostly Shia, they believe that Ayatollahs are holy, like Catholics and the Pope. His word is law. Iran has not done ANYTHING illegal, according to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). We, however, do not follow article 6, which according to Article 6, section 2 of the US Constitution is "the supreme law of the Land."
What does article 6 say?
Good post. We all must work hard to tell everyone that despite what Bush/McCain/Obama continually jabber, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has NO authority to deploy nukes (if Iran had any). Ahmadinejad has NO authority to mobilize and direct Iran's military.
Wow!! Good to see those four hyperlinks. So CD's software is again allowing that particular html tag.
As for the item, it's good to get intel analysis of our so-called inteel analysts.