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'War Could Break Out at Any Time': Trump Extends Ceasefire But Continues Blockade of Iran
One expert stressed that "trust between the sides remains at zero."
Apr 21, 2026
President Donald Trump on Tuesday afternoon extended a two-week ceasefire for his and Israel's war on Iran, but the US leader also said that a naval blockade of the Mideast nation will continue, and fears of fresh attacks remain high.
Two weeks after threatening to take out the "whole civilization" of Iran just hours before the ceasefire agreement was reached, Trump took to his Truth Social platform again to announce the extension, without a clear timeline.
"Based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so and, upon the request of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan, we have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal," Trump wrote. "I have therefore directed our Military to continue the Blockade and, in all other respects, remain ready and able, and will therefore extend the Ceasefire until such time as their proposal is submitted, and discussions are concluded, one way or the other."
Trump has imposed the blockade in response to Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman that's a key trade route, including for fossil fuels. As part of the blockade, the president said Sunday, US forces seized Touska, a nearly 900-foot Iranian-flagged cargo ship.
Trita Parsi, co-founder and executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, concluded Tuesday that Trump's cave "reflects the outcome I have argued is the most likely: No deal, no sanctions relief, no nuclear compromise, no return to war, while Iran continues to control the strait. Not a stable situation, but one in which Trump pockets the central thing he sought—exiting the war—while Iran is bereft of the main thing it was looking for: sanctions lifting."
While a spokesperson for United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said that he welcomes Trump's announcement as "an important step toward de-escalation and creating critical space for diplomacy and confidence-building between Iran and the United States," and encouraged all parties "to build on this momentum," comments out of Iran suggested limited progress.
Drop Site News co-founder Jeremy Scahill reported Tuesday that "an Iranian official tells me that, as of this moment, Iran's position remains unchanged: Lifting of the naval blockade is a condition for a second round of talks."
According to Reuters chief national security reporter Phil Stewart, an adviser to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of Iran's Parliament, said that Tuesday's extension means nothing and could even be a ploy to buy time for a surprise strike, plus the US continuing its blockade is the same as bombardment and must be met with military force.
Noting Stewart's reporting on social media, Center for International Policy senior fellow Sina Toossi noted that reporting and warned that "after coming under surprise attack twice, some in Tehran are calling for Iran to take initiative and strike first, including at US vessels or tankers ready to exit Hormuz."
Toossi also stressed that "trust between the sides remains at zero and renewed war could break out at any time."
"Let's be real, Pakistan isn't deciding whether the US goes to war with Iran," he added. "They're a conduit, not a driver. More a convenient excuse and diplomatic cover than having any sort of actual influence over Trump on Iran."
Ahead of the extension, Toossi had published an op-ed in The Guardian arguing that "having fought what they see as an existential war with the US and Israel and held their ground, Iranian officials see little reason to rush into major concessions. The priority is not a sweeping deal, but reducing the risk of war while preserving core sources of power, from Hormuz to its nuclear program."
"In the short term, that may simply mean extending the ceasefire rather than reaching a substantive agreement. Beyond that, the likelier outcome is an interim arrangement, or a broad memorandum-of-understanding-style framework that defers key details, rather than a decisive breakthrough," he continued. "In this view, the conflict is not being resolved but managed—and with time, Iran believes its position will strengthen as the global fallout from energy disruption makes renewed escalation a cost no one is willing to bear."
A Tuesday report from the climate advocacy group 350.org estimates that during the first 50 days of the Iran war, consumers and businesses worldwide have paid an additional $158.6-166.9 billion due to soaring fuel costs.
Additionally, thousands of people have been killed in Iran and across the region, and at least tens of thousands of Iranian civilian infrastructure sites have been damaged since the US and Israel first launched attacks in February.
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'Iranians Do Not Submit to Force,' Says Iran's President as Trump Lobs More Threats
Another Iranian official, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei, said the US is "claiming diplomacy and readiness for negotiations" while still engaging in acts of aggression.
Apr 20, 2026
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Monday criticized what he called "unconstructive and contradictory signals" by US officials as the two sides weighed another round of peace talks in the Pakistani capital of Islamabad, where an earlier summit failed to produce a deal to end the conflict that the Trump administration and its Israeli counterparts launched in late February.
"Honoring commitments is the basis of meaningful dialogue," Pezeshkian wrote in a social media post, adding that Iranians harbor "deep historical mistrust" toward the US government given its record of aggression against the Middle Eastern country.
"They seek Iran's surrender," Pezeshkian wrote of Trump administration officials. "Iranians do not submit to force."
The Iranian president's comments came as his US counterpart, President Donald Trump, threatened to continue the bombing campaign that has so far killed more than 3,300 Iranians—and displaced millions—if the current two-week ceasefire expires Wednesday evening without an agreement to end the war.
"Lots of bombs start going off," Trump told PBS News when asked what happens if the ceasefire lapses without a deal.
Trump's remarks came after he warned that if Iranian leaders don't accept his administration's terms for an end to the war, "the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran." Experts have said Trump's threats are themselves war crimes even if he doesn't follow through with the attacks on civilian infrastructure, which is protected under international law.
Iran is considering attending another round of peace talks with the Trump administration in Islamabad this week, even after Iran's top diplomat accused the US delegation of sabotaging the previous round with maximalist demands and "shifting goal posts."
The spokesperson for Iran's Foreign Ministry, Esmail Baghaei, said in a press briefing on Monday that "no decision has been made" regarding Iranian attendance at another round of talks.
"While claiming diplomacy and readiness for negotiations, the US is carrying out behaviors that do not in any way indicate seriousness in pursuing a diplomatic process," Baghaei told reporters, pointing to the US military's attack on and seizure of an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman over the weekend.
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Pakistan Reiterates That Lebanon Is Still Part of Ceasefire Despite Israel's Attacks
A foreign policy expert told Common Dreams that Israel’s unprecedented attack on Lebanon, backed by the US, “appeared to be a direct attempt to blow up the ceasefire, and it worked.”
Apr 08, 2026
A Pakistani official said Wednesday that despite Israel’s unprecedented attack on Lebanon, it is still part of the ceasefire agreement that Pakistan's prime minister helped to mediate the previous day, even as Israel and the US insist otherwise.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who played a key role in brokering the deal announced on Tuesday, said that "Iran and the United States of America, along with their allies, have agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon and elsewhere, EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY.”
But within hours of the agreement, Israel launched what it said was its largest military operation against Lebanon yet, which killed at least 254 people and wounded 1,165 others, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry. The Israel Defense Forces acknowledged that the assault included attacks on many civilian areas.
Contrary to the mediators, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that the ceasefire "does not include Lebanon.” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt followed suit, confirming that the US's position was also that “Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire,” adding that “that has been relayed to all parties involved."
But Pakistan's ambassador to the US, Rizwan Saeed Sheikh, said on Wednesday afternoon that this was not the agreement the parties reached on Tuesday.
He told CNN anchor Becky Anderson that the deal announced by his prime minister, which included Lebanon, "could not have been more authentic" to what the two parties agreed to, and that it was still the prime minister's understanding that Lebanon was included.
He added that this was another instance in which a ceasefire "could be disrupted" by Israel's actions. He also noted that "there have been instances in the past where ceasefires have been disrupted," a possible reference to Israel's routine violations of its previous ceasefire with Lebanon and the current one with Gaza, and its repeated assassinations of Iranian negotiators as they've sat down for talks with the US.
The US-Iran ceasefire is less than 24 hours old, but Israel's attack on Wednesday has already thrown it into peril. Iran responded to the attacks on Wednesday by once again closing the Strait of Hormuz after briefly reopening the critical waterway in accordance with the deal. Iran is also reportedly considering withdrawing from the ceasefire altogether and resuming strikes against Israel.
President Donald Trump has appeared eager to declare victory and move on from the war, which has further tanked his already plummeting support at home and sparked a global economic crisis.
But Janet Abou-Elias, a researcher with the Democratizing Foreign Policy program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told Common Dreams that Israel's goals are very different.
She explained that Israel was largely sidelined from the talks that culminated in Tuesday's ceasefire and that within Israel's internal politics, the agreement is being portrayed as "catastrophic."
She noted that Yair Lapid, the leader of the opposition to Netanyahu's government, has portrayed it as “the worst political failure in our history,” and accused the prime minister of failing to achieve his goals.
"What we’ve seen since looks like Israel acting to undermine a diplomatic process over which it had lost influence," Abou-Elias said.
She said that Israel's attack on Lebanon on Wednesday, which it has referred to as Operation Eternal Darkness, "appeared to be a direct attempt to blow up the ceasefire, and it worked."
According to the Human Rights Activists News Agency, a US-based human rights monitor for Iran, at least 1,701 civilians have been killed in US-Israeli attacks against Iran since the war was launched on February 28.
After Wednesday's bombardment, Lebanon's Health Ministry reported that the death toll in the country was now up to at least 1,739 since the war began on March 2.
"At this point, any durable end to this conflict, even a temporary one, requires Washington to rein in Israel," Abou-Elias said. "Trump has the leverage to do it. What’s unclear is whether he has the political will to use it."
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