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National Intelligence Council Report: Sun Setting on The American Century
WASHINGTON _ The next two decades will see a world living with the daily threat of nuclear war, environmental catastrophe and the decline of America as the dominant global power, according to a frighteningly bleak assessment by the US intelligence community.
The report said that global warming will aggravate the scarcity of water, food and energy resources. Don't worry, though, there's good news in it, too. (20th Century Fox)
"The world of the near future will be subject to an increased likelihood of
conflict over resources, including food and water, and will be haunted by
the persistence of rogue states and terrorist groups with greater access to
nuclear weapons," said the report by the National Intelligence Council, a
body of analysts from across the US intelligence community.
The analysts said that the report had been prepared in time for Barack Obama's entry into the Oval office on January 20, where he will be faced with some of the greatest challenges of any newly elected US president.
"The likelihood that nuclear weapons will be used will increase with expanded access to technology and a widening range of options for limited strikes," the 121-page assessment said.
The analysts draw attention to an already escalating nuclear arms race in the Middle East and anticipate that a growing number of rogue states will be prepared to share their destructive technology with terror groups. "Over the next 15-20 years reactions to the decisions Iran makes about its nuclear programme could cause a number of regional states to intensify these efforts and consider actively pursuing nuclear weapons," the report Global Trends 2025 said. "This will add a new and more dangerous dimension to what is likely to be increasing competition for influence within the region," it said.
The spread of nuclear capabilities will raise questions about the ability of weak states to safeguard them, it added. "If the number of nuclear-capable states increases, so will the number of countries potentially willing to provide nuclear assistance to other countries or to terrorists."
The report said that global warming will aggravate the scarcity of water, food and energy resources. Citing a British study, it said that climate change could force up to 200 million people to migrate to more temperate zones. "Widening gaps in birth rates and wealth-to-poverty ratios, and the impact of climate change, could further exacerbate tensions," it said.
"The international system will be almost unrecognisable by 2025, owing to the rise of emerging powers, a globalising economy, a transfer of wealth from West to East, and the growing influence of nonstate actors. Although the United States is likely to remain the single most powerful actor, the United States' relative strength - even in the military realm - will decline and US leverage will become more strained."
Global power will be multipolar with the rise of India and China, and the Korean peninsula will be unified in some form. Turning to the current financial situation, the analysts say that the financial crisis on Wall Street is the beginning of a global economic rebalancing.
The US dollar's role as the major world currency will weaken to the point where it becomes a "first among equals".
"Strategic rivalries are most likely to revolve around trade, investments and technological innovation, but we cannot rule out a 19th-century-like scenario of arms races, territorial expansion and military rivalries." The report, based on a global survey of experts and trends, was more pessimistic about America's global status than previous outlooks prepared every four years. It said that outcomes will depend in part on the actions of political leaders. "The next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks," it said.
The analysts also give warning that the kind of organised crime plaguing Russia could eventually take over the government of an Eastern or Central European country, and that countries in Africa and South Asia may find themselves ungoverned, as states wither away under pressure from security threats and diminishing resources..
The US intelligence community expects that terrorism would survive until 2025, but in slightly different form, suggesting that alQaeda's "terrorist wave" might be breaking up. "AlQaeda's inability to attract broad-based support might cause it to decay sooner than people think," it said.
On a positive note it added that an alternative to oil might be in place by 2025.
- Posted in
112 Comments so far
Show AllThe neocons accelerated the decline by several decades, at least.
Sioux Rose
That's the truth, yet the reverberations yet to be felt remind me of the first small waves that precede the larger tsunami.
Perhaps the neocons , accelerating then end of the "American Century" were a hidden blessing.
this is why my dark, distopic side almost hoped McCain and Palin would have won. the neocons would have eaten themselves.
Perhaps, but my guess is that it won't go quietly into the night.
The most dangerous rogue state with access to nuclear weapons, and with the greatest willingness to use them, is the US. I wonder whether the US intelligence community identified the US as the number one threat to world peace?
. . . the report by the National Intelligence Council, a body of analysts from across the US intelligence community.
Even if this is mostly or completely true, the track record of the "intelligence community" makes you want to run in the opposite direction. It just sounds like more boilerplate for continued imperialist adventures by a fraternity of chest thumpers who just won't give up.
You nailed it again. I hope again, that Obama can think more broadly than to swallow the old-school swill that these reptilian intelligence people are going to try to feed him.
It doesn’t look good for the next life…
Each in it's turn. America had it's chance to age gracefully and be a wise elder nation to the world under president in-exile Al Gore. Alas, the Neo-Cons tried to put off the inevitable.
Trying to stem the tides of time never works. Gilgamesh tried and failed. The Incas tried and failed. Buddah's third nobel truth is you can't stop (or push) the world. I'm suprised that someone like George W. Bush who clames to be 'reborn' did not understand the meaning.
We 'die' to our animal nature and are 'reborn' in wisdom and enlightenment.
Now we face a cataclismic collapse rather than graceful aging.
Not to worry, we will be back in 65,000 lifetimes or so if the Hindus are right.
If the Hindus are right and there is a thing called mass karma, we are in for it!
Bad Karma, we might be reborn as another George W. Bush!
Not familiar with mass Karma, please elaborate.
Sioux Rose
The idea of mass karma is roughly that it's no accident the nation you are born into, or tribe, or even ethnic group. While it's fashionable to speak in terms of the "accident of birth," what the astrological chart bears witness to are those inclinations, traits, gifts and liabilities that are the marks of the soul's own heritage. When a nation encounters a war, that is group karma. Of course those who show aggression towards their neighbors are adding TO the fervor of war.
Group karma can be seen in those on the beach when the tsunami hit South East Asia. Some spiritual teachers believe that souls agree to share in these events as it burns karma, and there is the hope that some of these calamities serve as teaching devices for those who see their effects and theoretically learn lessons from them.
When we incarnate, or become embodied, much is forgotten. It's true that we use a very small percentage of our brain area (what's in all those latent files?); and those children who ARE sensitive to past lives and relate them, or speak about angels or guides are usually told they are JUST imagining things. Soon that sentience, like an atrophied limb, disappears. Our society cordones off such awareness very intensely. Don't forget those who were gifted this way were at one time burned as witches, nor did it take much for the Carl Roves of that era to have quite a time accusing whomever they personally disliked. An accusation pretty much counted for guilt.
"Group karma can be seen in those on the beach when the tsunami hit South East Asia." !!!?????
That is absolutely horrible. That those poor people who had been living there since forever to earn their meagre living were dealt karmic payback! What abject, pathetic silliness. Hard to trash the beautiful (and positive) notion of karma worse than that.
"Some spiritual teachers believe that souls agree to share in these events as it burns karma, and there is the hope that some of these calamities serve as teaching devices for those who see their effects and theoretically learn lessons from them." !!!?????
This gibberish makes old-time fire-and-brimstone priests sound like reasonable people.
"It's true that we use a very small percentage of our brain area..." No kidding.
It's Karl Rove, not "Carl" Rove.
"I tremble for my country when I reflect on the just hand of God."
- Thomas Jefferson
That quote from Thomas Jefferson sounds like he could have been talking about mass Karma.I do not know if it is true or not, but Some people say that many innocent people suffered and died in Nazi Germany because of what their Government did in their name, because of mass Karma.
W doesn't understand the meaning of much of anything.
He's a back ward developmentally disabled person.
Not his fault--but the folks who put this severely damaged person in a position of power will answer for it for many lifetimes--a cockroaches.
"Not to worry, we will be back in 65,000 lifetimes or so if the Hindus are right."
Hmm, is that 65536 (2^16)?
Presumably on another planet -- ?
That looks like the plan ... overpopulate ... steal ...run off with the money ...
create as much fear and weapons as possible ... leave total destruction behind.
New World Order ... Move from planet to planet doing same.
"According to all myth, the female - not the male -- gives life"
The beginning of the end...
you are not a person
We missed opportunities to halt, or even reverse this trend,thanks to the unlearned and/or apathetic voters who helped this administration steal elections; and then stood by as they sold us out to the special intrests by blocking environmental and social reforms.
Yes, and what I believe will remain a challenge to humanity despite all lessons learnt will be the foresight and wisdom to aptly understand the outcomes and influences of belief systems.
How many times have long-term considerations been subordinated to short-term interests? How many times have thoughts for posterity and future well-being been equated with an impractical idealism? Why is it that personal spirituality is not correlated with the common good, and common interest not correlated with personal responsibility? How can so many folks not know how their individual lack of learning, their apathy and/or self-absorption is at the root of so many of society's ills? And most pertinent of all, why is it so hard to comprehend how thoughts and choices and guiding principles rooted in fear or greed can only result in negative outcomes? Military hegemony, money created from debt, nationalism based on separation rather than cooperation, and beliefs of superiority are never sustainably constructive.
Sioux Rose
COSMO: What you describe is essentially the psychological aspect of the mindset I define as MARS rules. For one thing, the corporate state with its myriad corporations that use the media to turn citizens into consumers relies upon the maximum number of sales. So... market to the SINGLE DIGIT consumer, and one way to do this is to make each person/ego center of the universe. The ego-driven individual is accustomed to a strong sense of self (even a flawed self), so it's not hard to use that force to identify self with nation, and turn both against another who is "marketed" as dangerous other/enemy.
Mars rules teaches competition in school, exalts the athlete and acts of conquest, makes an ownership of guns/personal weapons practically a religious mantra, glorifies the warrior/hero, and gives most of its hard-earned assets TO the military. Media reinforces these stereotypes and behaviors so much that it's all taken for WHAT IS. Hardly. It's IS what's been SHAPED, and shaped to suit the old god Mars and his love of blood shed in his name. As if ANY Of these approaches has anything remotely to do with Jesus. Yet much is done in His name. (And I am neither giving the fundamentalist Muslims or Jews a spiritual pass in making this point, for they no doubt use similar cues and motivational devices for the same toxic ends.)
Empires come and go--Just like the Greek gods, the Roman gods, the Indian gods, Aztec gods and on and on.
Sure our empire is over! No big thing!
The empire is broke, the spirit is lacking, the oil is peaking and the leadership is truly Roman.
Time to sit back and relax and enjoy the aftermath of empire--quiet nights at home, no running off to invade and torture, no more ponzi scheming, alchemisty whiz kids on Wall Street turning toxic mortgages into gold--now we can go quietly into the night and be like other post empire countries--Spain, Britain and Holland.
Dr Wu, the last of the big-time thinkers
.Hee, I do enjoy a Dr. Wu post.
" Tho' much is taken, much abides;
And tho' we are not now that strength
which in olden days moved earth and heaven,
that which we are, we are."
Alfred, Lord Tennyson
I do believe that the decline and fall of the American Empire can be a positive, given that it is a peaceful and gradual occurance. But there is a struggle which remains to be fought, the restoration of the social contract between our govt and our people. We have no universal health care, an essential to the nation I would be proud to call mine own. We have eliminated or drastically reduced the safety nets that I believe our founders envisioned when they noted that a prime duty of govt is to provide for the general welfare. Regardless of our foreign policy defficiencies, regardless of the collapse of our empire abroad, this battle remains to be waged, right here at home.
"All of us are in the gutter,
but some of us are staring up at stars."
Oscar Wilde
We see things, not as they are, but as we are.
Anais Nin
While I hope not the only way human beings could have prevente their destruction by their own hands of either modern day weapons or the destruction of the earth would have been to live like the Native Tribes used to live upon the earth.
The Hopi prophecies state this land will pretty much be burnt off the face of the earth by man made weapons that they now consider to be modern day weapons. The prophecies of other peoples & biblical prophecies indicate much the same about the use of such weapons.
Interesting to me is that there were Native Tribes who did not want to learn the knowledge of Europeans when they began arriving as they considered such knowledge to be forbidden. Interesting they had a concept that there was knowledge that was forbidden. In the bible Creator/God speaks about the increase in knowledge but not in any good light at all.
Karma is merely the circle. Invent weapons that can destroy most of the human population of the earth & they may come back to haunt you at some other time within the thing called time.
Even Jesus taught the circle or Spiritual Circle with such teachings as love your enemies, return good for evil done to you, forgive & you will be forgiven, & pray for those who use you despitefully.
Life is good.
Always Look on the Bright Side of Life
Some things in life are bad,
They can really make you mad,
Other things just make you swear and curse,
When you're chewing life's gristle,
Don't grumble,
Give a whistle
And this'll help things turn out for the best.
And...
Always look on the bright side of life.
[whistle]
Always look on the light side of life.
[whistle]
If life seems jolly rotten,
There's something you've forgotten,
And that's to laugh and smile and dance and sing.
When you're feeling in the dumps,
Don't be silly chumps.
Just purse your lips and whistle.
That's the thing.
And...
Always look on the bright side of life.
[whistle]
Always look on the right side of life,
[whistle]
For life is quite absurd
And death's the final word.
You must always face the curtain with a bow.
Forget about your sin.
Give the audience a grin.
Enjoy it. It's your last chance, anyhow.
So,...
Always look on the bright side of death,
[whistle]
Just before you draw your terminal breath.
[whistle]
Life's a piece of shit,
When you look at it.
Life's a laugh and death's a joke it's true.
You'll see it's all a show.
Keep 'em laughing as you go.
Just remember that the last laugh is on you.
And...
Always look on the bright side of life.
Always look on the right side of life.
[whistle]
Always look on the bright side of life!
[whistle]
Always look on the bright side of life!
[whistle]
Always look on the bright side of life!
[whistle]
Always look on the bright side of life!
[whistle]
Always look on the bright side of life!
[whistle]
Always look on the bright side of life!
[whistle]
Always look on the bright side of life!
[whistle]
Always look on the bright side of life!
[whistle]
Repeat to fade...
Good ol' Monty Python. =]
There will indeed be a Tsunami if this report comes close to the truth. The world will pay a heavy price.
Thomas More: I saw the movie that the photo is from,"(I think it was "The Day After Tomorrow" fiction) with this article. It seemed peculiar to me, although I liked the ending. Question: can you think of any article or book (besides George Orwell's "1984") that was an accurate prediction of the future, nonfiction? No doubt the report is in the interest of prevention, but I am curious for your answer.
Alduous Huxley's BRAVE NEW WORLD ????? I read it a long time ago and much of what he said has come to pass, but I don't remember the conclusion. Perhaps I preferred to forget.
/cm
???????????????????????
She was asking for: Non-fiction!!
Brave New World is much more fiction than 99.9% of literature, in that it doesn't at all resemble real life like, for example: Madame Bovary, War and Peace, Catcher in the Rye, Streetcar Named Desire, Death of a Salesman, etc., etc., etc.
It's a work of 'wild' futuristic fiction where obviously Huxley takes some worrisome (to him) tendencies, and wildly exaggerates where it could lead to hundreds of years in the future, and what you get doesn't at all resemble life on earth then or now. You wrote: "...much of what he said has come to pass..."!!!!????? Just read it again. Following are 2 quotes from a website devoted to BNW (http://www.huxley.net/)
"Brave New World is a benevolent dictatorship: a static, efficient, totalitarian welfare-state. There is no war, poverty or crime. Society is stratified by genetically-predestined caste. Intellectually superior Alphas are the top-dogs. Servile, purposely brain-damaged Gammas, Deltas and Epsilons toil away at the bottom."
"In Brave New World, there is no depth of feeling, no ferment of ideas, and no artistic creativity. Individuality is suppressed. Intellectual excitement and discovery have been abolished. Its inhabitants are laboratory-grown clones..."
NO WAR, NO POVERTY, NO CRIME... INHABITANTS ARE LABORATORY-GROWN CLONES!!!! ("...much of what he said has come to pass..."!!!)
"The next two decades will see a world living with the daily threat of nuclear war, environmental catastrophe and the decline of America as the dominant global power..."
Huh? This has been true for the LAST two decades.
ZZZZzzzzzzzzzz
"To every thing turn turn turn.....”. Our empire is no different. And not even Obama can reverse the course we are presently on. All our social, political and economic institutions have been corrupted into serving the needs of the elite. But things are so bad even for the elite that they are being forced to dig deeper into the pockets of middleclass America, thus weakening the backbone of our economy. The government is outsourcing the services it is required to provide, to corporate America, who is now profiting in these ventures, directly at the expense of the middleclass. When the auto workers are blamed for the failures of their corporate bosses, and our elected officials swallow that lie, it’s another sign the middleclass is in for hard times. Now the burden of being the wall between the elite and the pissed off poor, falls on the upper middleclass, who are the best save-your-own-ass players in the empire. They have grown up in the system and will gladly sell-out their blue collar brothers, just to remain players. “To every thing turn turn turn…”.
Hoa binh
Thanks for more scare tactics.
Psychological warfare, couldn't have said it better myself! Our government wants to ensure that people stay out of sync with their higher selves! Fear and negativity is exactly how it is done. They have been doing it now for centuries!
op⋅pres⋅sion /əˈprɛʃən/ Show Spelled Pronunciation [uh-presh-uhn] Show IPA Pronunciation
–noun 1. the exercise of authority or power in a burdensome, cruel, or unjust manner.
2. an act or instance of oppressing.
3. the state of being oppressed.
4. the feeling of being heavily burdened, mentally or physically, by troubles, adverse conditions, anxiety, etc.
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/oppression
They can scare us only so much before we give up and stop caring. I think they have worn out the solace we might get from giving them more power.
After a while people get tired of riding on roller coasters. The price of the thrill just isn't cutting it!
A half-educated guess at best. Ya could easily turn it around:
"The world of the near future will be subject to a decreased likelihood of conflict over resources, including food and water, and will be not be haunted by the persistence of rogue states and terrorist groups with greater access to nuclear weapons as more and more people adopt the paradigm that "we're all in this together" and renounce violence, start distributing resources more equally and eliminate all nukes."
"The likelihood that nuclear weapons will be used will severely diminish, mostly due to the realization that the consequences would be obliteration; nuke technology will be ever-harder to acquire, and access to parts and supplies will be severely limited until all nukes are eliminated."
"Although global warming will aggravate the scarcity of water, food and energy resources, the newly enlightened world majority will organize to avert any serious catastrophes. Climate change could force up to 200 million people to migrate to more temperate zones, and all will be accommodated without turmoil."
"The international system will be almost unrecognizable by 2025, as it will be a system based on fairness, equality and the preservation of humanity and the planet. Only the war, money, and power-mongers will find it unrecognizable, but most of them will be dead by then anyway."
Thank you
Frank,
I love the way you think!
Totally unrealistic. An optimist is a happy fool, and a pessimist is an unhappy fool. What we need are realists.
We may not get to the situation described in the report. But nothing is more obvious than we're heading down that road right now, and there's nothing whatever in sight to justify your sunny optimism. We may turn it around, and it wouldn't surprise me all that much if we did; as a species we're pretty resourceful. We've also displayed unbelievable amounts of stupidity, cruelty, etc., etc.
Already, the globe is awash in ugliness and suffering.
It's extremely good that we have people making noise about where we're going to get to if we don't change our ways. Realists. That's what we need. Not people who think that we can make everything alright by saying that it's alright.
Hard to understand people attempting to discredit those who warn us about the dangers of playing with matches and gasoline.
Sign me up.
Excellent Frank.
We are billions at the top of the food chain. We are the end result of the evolution of an highly aggressive and intelligent ape who has atomic bombs instead of shit and sticks to throw at one another. Nope, I don't see much ahead for us. But then, I'm not the CIA.
Before you trust the experts, remember Greenspan.
History repeats itself. The UK gave independence to its colonies because it could no longer afford to keep them. The US may end its role as "World cop" for the same reason. The sooner we end it the better.
History does NOT merely repeat itself. That is a naive assessment.
People just don't learn from former judgement calls. They learn and interpret them in specific ways.
KeLeMi - try looking up some substantial facts on the so-called end of British imperialism/colonialism. It has not happened yet! Then look up McNamara's strategy for VietNam occupation and then compare that to Obama's strategy for Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan.
It is so ironic that no one is seemingly interested in "history" because it is the past and we are only moving forward. If more people truly understood historical facts and the current debates about them, then perhaps we could move forward.