Twitter
StumbleUpon
Facebook
Delicious
Digg
Newsvine
Google
Yahoo
TechnoratiNational Intelligence Council Report: Sun Setting on The American Century
WASHINGTON _ The next two decades will see a world living with the daily threat of nuclear war, environmental catastrophe and the decline of America as the dominant global power, according to a frighteningly bleak assessment by the US intelligence community.
![[The report said that global warming will aggravate the scarcity of water, food and energy resources. Don't worry, though, there's good news in it, too. (20th Century Fox)]](http://www.commondreams.org/files/article_images/dayafter2025.1121.jpg "dayafter2025.1121.jpg")
"The world of the near future will be subject to an increased likelihood of
conflict over resources, including food and water, and will be haunted by
the persistence of rogue states and terrorist groups with greater access to
nuclear weapons," said the report by the National Intelligence Council, a
body of analysts from across the US intelligence community.
The analysts said that the report had been prepared in time for Barack Obama's entry into the Oval office on January 20, where he will be faced with some of the greatest challenges of any newly elected US president.
"The likelihood that nuclear weapons will be used will increase with expanded access to technology and a widening range of options for limited strikes," the 121-page assessment said.
The analysts draw attention to an already escalating nuclear arms race in the Middle East and anticipate that a growing number of rogue states will be prepared to share their destructive technology with terror groups. "Over the next 15-20 years reactions to the decisions Iran makes about its nuclear programme could cause a number of regional states to intensify these efforts and consider actively pursuing nuclear weapons," the report Global Trends 2025 said. "This will add a new and more dangerous dimension to what is likely to be increasing competition for influence within the region," it said.
The spread of nuclear capabilities will raise questions about the ability of weak states to safeguard them, it added. "If the number of nuclear-capable states increases, so will the number of countries potentially willing to provide nuclear assistance to other countries or to terrorists."
The report said that global warming will aggravate the scarcity of water, food and energy resources. Citing a British study, it said that climate change could force up to 200 million people to migrate to more temperate zones. "Widening gaps in birth rates and wealth-to-poverty ratios, and the impact of climate change, could further exacerbate tensions," it said.
"The international system will be almost unrecognisable by 2025, owing to the rise of emerging powers, a globalising economy, a transfer of wealth from West to East, and the growing influence of nonstate actors. Although the United States is likely to remain the single most powerful actor, the United States' relative strength - even in the military realm - will decline and US leverage will become more strained."
Global power will be multipolar with the rise of India and China, and the Korean peninsula will be unified in some form. Turning to the current financial situation, the analysts say that the financial crisis on Wall Street is the beginning of a global economic rebalancing.
The US dollar's role as the major world currency will weaken to the point where it becomes a "first among equals".
"Strategic rivalries are most likely to revolve around trade, investments and technological innovation, but we cannot rule out a 19th-century-like scenario of arms races, territorial expansion and military rivalries." The report, based on a global survey of experts and trends, was more pessimistic about America's global status than previous outlooks prepared every four years. It said that outcomes will depend in part on the actions of political leaders. "The next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks," it said.
The analysts also give warning that the kind of organised crime plaguing Russia could eventually take over the government of an Eastern or Central European country, and that countries in Africa and South Asia may find themselves ungoverned, as states wither away under pressure from security threats and diminishing resources..
The US intelligence community expects that terrorism would survive until 2025, but in slightly different form, suggesting that alQaeda's "terrorist wave" might be breaking up. "AlQaeda's inability to attract broad-based support might cause it to decay sooner than people think," it said.
On a positive note it added that an alternative to oil might be in place by 2025.
112 Comments so far
Show AllReid's article devotes three paragraphs to nuclear fear-mongering, and one to the dire ecological predicament, if not crisis, the world finds itself in.
Reid writes: "The analysts draw attention to an already escalating nuclear arms race in the Middle East..." Since when, is there an escalating nuclear arms race in the Middle East? Who is Israel racing against? Don't tell me 'Iran', since it does not have nuclear arms and claims not to want any.
Another unsubstantiated claim of the article: "If the number of nuclear-capable states increases, so will the number of countries potentially willing to provide nuclear assistance to other countries or to terrorists."
The report of October 2003 "An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security" by Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall (with the exception of the hypothesis of a conveyor collapse in the Atlantic ocean) is much more realistic insofar as it concentrates its scenario on massive man-made environmental degradation, depleted resources, overpopulation, and the conflicts that will no doubt arise out of such.
Methinks this is CHANGE, not the kind Obamarama has in mind, though.
That is actually good news! It means I wont be needing that retirement fund that disappeared this year after all!
All I will need is a Mohawk haircut, a modified dunebuggy, and a band of mutant warriors to lead!
Cool, Thanks President Bush!
"The only means of strengthening one's intellect is to make up one's mind about nothing, to let the mind be a thoroughfare for all thoughts." - John Keats
Bring America Back !!!!
***Third to the last paragraph in this piece warns that organized crime
in Russia could take over an Eastern or a European nation.
***I could swear that we in the USA just voted against an very organized
bunch of criminals who were in charge of our Government, got away with murder
made war on a defenseless nation, and are waltzing away scot free !!
**We Americans know their names, exactly how they did it, and are doing it,
and we just can't do a damn thing about it !!
=========This piece is about as Intelligent as an 800 pound gorilla--Baloney !
I can't help but notice there's no suggestion in this report about abandoning capitalism and moving toward bioregion-based socialism as a way of avoiding all this impending death and destruction.
The end of the America? In the immortal words of bush: Bring it on. And to conclude with my own: The sooner, the better.
I think it is pat time that America and the world remember that nations, countries and empires are organic.
They are born, live, grow old and die.
They are dependant upon the world and environment around them for their very existance.
Let the American Dream die.
Walk in peace.
I'll tag my comment onto yours since you said it first.
Countries, like people, make the mistake of thinking that they're going to be around forever. The lesson for whoever replaces us is if you're going to be the bastion of freedom and the hope of the world you'd better get about doing it while you have the opportunity. If, on the other hand, you're really just a pack of swine, then it doesn't matter. You might as well shoot the place up and hog the wealth before your luck runs out.
What are you guys talking about? Empires disappear...fairly quickly too, because they involve invading (one way or another) other nations and people find ways to get them out.
But countries!? China's been around for quite a while, as has Russia, Japan, England, France, etc. Sure, not necessarily exactly in the configuration they're in now, but still.
Those countries and the US are going to be around for a loooooong time. Bet on it.
But the US empire is over. We got to be an empire by being filthy rich and lending money to everybody. We've used up our oil and other resources, we borrow unbelievable amounts EVERY DAY! to buy our oil from others, our military has just been proven to very limited (despite ruining ourselves with defence spending), our superior high-tech capability has been syphoned off and wasted on nuclear arms (we're the toughest mother on the block but so what...) while the rest of the planet has replaced us in producing useful low and high-tech commodities.
Since WWII, we totally dominated the world of finance and economics and we've brought the world to the edge of chaos with our ridiculous right-wing crap... We're done like dinner.
The outpourings of "US intelligence community", should be ignored and not commented on.
They are fed and watered by the incessant warmongering that has brought such rich rewards for the elite few.
U.S.Intelligence has so often looked like an oxymoron. Peace and co-operation are possible, but they have to be on the agenda first.
Sustainability and other environmental challenges are real money spinners, lets get on with the jobs Obama.
The sun is setting on the American century because we have a thoroughly corrupt government, determined by gigantic corporate donors and by wholesale election fraud, intent on embezzling the national treasury to the last dollar.
Otherwise, the American people are just as inventive, caring and idealistic as always. The soil is pretty good and the sun shines.
I love sunsets! Time to sit back wind down and enjoy a drink while the sun dips beneath the waves. In the immortal words of Douglas Adams: "Don't Panic"
There is no such thing as one murderous nation surviving
-- this is one planet --
Those in control are frightened, paranoid people, ignorant and
separated from true spiritual connections to nature ...
They have delivered the brutalities of the pasr -- consider them!
And the brutalities of the present --
As long as they are in control, the future will be brutal.
IMO, their violence comes from their own self-hatred.
"According to all myth, the female - not the male -- gives life"
It is no myth my darling.
In order to come in to this plane of this existence on this earth…. one has to pass through the portal of life. That portal is only provided by the females of the species of this earth and no other.
Some call this portal the ankh, tree of life, yoni, and birth canal. This treasure of the earth is so coveted, desired, and despised by the powerful and the religious right because its control can never be theirs.
"According to all myth, the female - not the male -- gives life"
Exactly the reason the female has been "kept in her place" for centuries - ever since the male realized the truth. No doubt they fear SHE might withhold that life.
"According to all myth, the female - not the male -- gives life"
Are you shitting me!? What else will these feminists think of next!???
"...ever since the male realized the truth..." !?
So some dude, thousands of years ago, is watching his wife give birth and slowly (things moved slooooowly in those days) it dawns on him: "All 22 of our kids came out of her body, and not mine. Mmmmm? Could that mean....? Mmmmm I don't think I can have a kid! O! M! G!"
And he ran down to the local coffee shop (damn right they had coffee shops back then) and excitedly shared his realization with the gang.
WTF?
No kidding! It was news to me too. The things you learn on these 'progressive' bleating sites.
The Sun Is Setting on The American Century
Not by a few Saudis with a handful of razor blades
but by offending the Gods with outrageous hubris.
Pride goes before the fall - who had more pride, Lucifer or George W. Bush?
I doubt his coprophagous smirk is going to save America from his mendacity.
Adolf Hitler's "Project for the German Millennium" lasted about 12 years, so statistically speaking he seems to have been outdone by the US-neocons who were quite modest with their Project for the American Century.
I'm glad this foolishness is over: welcome back to the rest of the world, US of A! After all, we are in it together.
Thank you very much. We are glad to be back. America will be the friend and neighbor it was before the neocons. We will change. We will be a good world citizen again.
So this is the result of the efforts of "The Project for a New American Century"... great job fellas... now kindly go somewhere and die!
More of the same fear mongering that has been effectively used since 9-11. No one knows the future, especially these guys and gals who have been so miserably wrong.
Here is what we know. If we plan and do what we know is right, if Obama follows through with change bases on a simple formula of common sense and lack of ethnocentric world dominance in favor of "LEADERSHIP" then none of this bullshit will happen.
Shit happens because the US, Britain and other imperialistic egotistic leaders, including the small third world tyrants of like minds, think that they have to f'n control the world. It is kind of like life, evolution and every thing else. You can't control it, only mold it, lead it, influence it.
Nothing is preordained except history.
Grappa
I guess we are to assume from this report that the glass is half empty! Oh, thats right, Bush/ Cheney drank from it.
Are there any more honest intelligence officers left after 8 years of Bush/Cheney? How do we know any of this is true?
Is this more fear-mongering to get the American people to accept the harsh measures Obama is likely to take as President to protect "American interests"?
Logically, nothing is more optimistic than a prediction of inevitable doom!
If the reaction to, say, Global Warming is to stop burning wood, coal and oil, then, we could, and must, conclude, "There´s Hope!"
If the reaction to, say, the yearly arrival of 105,000 sponsored foreigners to take the best US Technical jobs available is to BEGIN to upgrade technical education with Internet review classes, streaming video by the best teachers in the nation, replacing textbooks with DVDs, etc.,then "There´s Hope!"
If the reaction to, say, the predictions of doom of American automakers because they are inefficient at making obsolete cars is to install a robotic assembly line to produce¨"Plug-In Electric Cars",then "There´s Hope!"
If the reaction to, say, the terribly expensive and dangerous health care service full of errors and high cost treatments is to integrate computer-based data handling and a search for alternatives to increased use of drugs, then "There´s Hope!"
If the reaction to, say, families, towns, cities and states coming apart for lack of money for public services is the resurgance of volunteers that are welcomed to help paid employees that are not afraid of being replaced by them and see in them the joy of helping others, then "There´s Hope!"
Yes, "There´s Hope!" Pres. Elect Obama ran for office to bring Hope to a nation that now, more than ever, needs a lot of Hope!
No other site is comparable in concern, topics and, oh yes, the wise comments, except mine, of course. Thanks you all!
MikeSar
Australia will be the next world power! Now I realize there will be those among you who scoff and jeer but I'm serious.
Look we're only around twenty million but we are great at sport. Sure, we don't have massive egos and we don't love killing, I agree. And we are pretty laid back preferring a day surfing to a day spent buck-chasing but I'm sure we can adjust if world domination is on the agenda.
And our military isn't very powerful but surely we can follow America and borrow billions and buy the latest toys of destruction so we can instill fear into all world citizens and become hated too.
God Bless Australia!
P.S. Have you seen a $100,000 bike? Check:
www.dangerouscreation.com
"Australia will be the next world power!" !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!
About time.
Maybe everyone should sit down and start working the problems now instead of waiting until the last minute.
[head slap!]
I know, I know.
One can dream, no?
Time to start reaching out in brotherhood and sisterhood between people and forget this nation business. Time to start thinking about sharing and helping one another instead of controlling.
right on
Who Felled the Last Tree on Easter Island?
Are we the agents of our own extinction?
Who felled the last tree on Easter Island?
Who freed the last slaves of Narcissus?
Is change a shifty chameleon
of a rebranded ‘we’re number one’
just one short of a naught
like a new O arising
Our folly is so benumbing
you’d think the masters of the universe were all coming
so...
break out the champagne
for iced casino capitalism: ‘their pain is our gain’
and...
we’re all slaves now
slaves of our fear
especially
slaves of the mirror
our nest
our nest egg
ever dear
nice poem, best post so far.
Being an ex-super power isn't a horrible fate. Many countries around the world are ex-super powers. And most of them are just fine.
Less flag-waving and less "greatest-country-on-the-face-of-the-earth" rhetoric will make America more likeable, actually.
So don't despair, Americans, it's quite okay. At least one is no longer loathed around the world as an ex-super power.
And one day Canadians traveling abroad might even claim that they are from the US, who knows...
I love this comment. I'm in mortal combat with the US supremacists in my family over this very point. Wow. American chauvinists blow livestock.
Thank you. May I quote you?
Naomi Klien says that Milton Friedman said that only disaster could produce real change, and the change produced depends on the ideas that were lying around.
Some ideas that are lying around include single payer health care, electric cars, money for domestic programs. I have no doubt that we will buy out the auto industry, and dammit, when you buy something it belongs to you right? After that stunt Paulson pulled it should obvious that banks should be nationalized too.
The fat cats will change the way they do nothing unless forced at gunpoint--or better yet, allowed to die a free market death. The only bailouts should go to retired auto workers.
What is sacred about the big three? Toyota and Honda are made in this country too, and many small companies with jobs aplenty to offer make electric cars. Give GM money and they will make more hummers.
Huck Fummers... huck them right in the ear.
I agree. The big boys can easily take the hit but do we let all the small Wall Street Casino gamblers lose their savings? The same mostly conservative people who think socialism is evil? Let them learn this valuable lesson.
And if people don't want socialist bailouts and nationalization, let's have buyouts where each person gets shares of stock in return.
Sounds good to me. I wouldn't mind the right to float resolutions, speak and vote at shareholder meetings as a public citizen.
Would the executives have to run for public election? Would we need constitutional amendments to mandate and establish procedure for public control of these industries?
Wow, I just sprained my brain. I'll be fine, just gotta walk it off...
I love Harvey Wasserman's idea for retooling the Big Three to get us on the public mass transit track (get it... "track"?) that they murdered. Great idea. If the public's gonna bail 'em out, the public better get affordable public mass transit out of the deal. That and rootbeer Popsicles for every American- payable in August. It's gonna be a scorcher.
We don't just want bread, we want roses. Damn skippy.
What country would be stupid enough to use the bomb? Are we really to believe they have a death wish, because retaliation would be swift.
Instead of spreading fear and trembling, why doesn't the media zip it for once and let us get on with the progress we should be making instead of wasting our talents in these greedy pursuits?
And if Obama wants to follow Ghandi in change, he should have started by counting out any lawmaker who voted for the invasion of Iraq instead of rewarding them with getting his ear.
Hey, they were not afraid to use depleted uranium in Afghanistan and Iraq! And in the Balkins.
We could force them to do a stint as a volunteer at any Iraqi hospital that continues to take in combat wounded and dead. One month might do it. That's how congressional warhawks should spend their time between sessions.
They want a fucking war? Fine. They get to volunteer at an Iraqi hospital while they're not in session.
Someone get me the President Elect.
The sad thing is, in Bush's really fucking lame duck session, he is now even more of a joke, and we're all STILL suffering for it.
I swear the dude looked like he was on Meth while delivering that Veterans Day address aboard that aircraft carrier. I've made the mistake of trying that drug and I know what it looks like. I also realize that the US military gives it to their personnel to keep them awake for extraordinarily long periods of time, highly agro, and full of bloodlust.
Watch W closely during this speech. He's cockier and even more obnoxious than usual, and his jaw is going a million miles a minute between statements.
If not that, he might be smoking crack. But I digress. He did say during that speech that Laura, his wife, is the "most patient woman in the world". You would be too if you had to deal with an adolescent cokehead, who feels entitled to reckless madness by his lame duck session.
ddg716:this country did use the bomb, twice. Obama is a politician and a US President-Elect. I don't think he indicated that he wants to follow Gandhi.
I think you missed his point. The simple point about Iran, for instance, is that they would no more try to nuke us than you or I would jump in front of a bus.
The point is that with our nukes, Iran (or whoever) would be obliterated very quickly, and they know that. They are not stupid and they don't have a death wish.
But, they did see how we trashed Irak, but we got quite understanding and chatty (instead of aggressive) with N. Korea once we believed they had nukes. That's obviously why Iran wants nukes: not to go after Israel or us, but to keep people from attacking them.
It's precisely because everybody knows our gov't has used them before and certainly would again if they thought a nuke attack was coming that it's exceptionally unlikely that any country is going to beg to be obliterated by nuking us. Nothing to brag about, it's a horrible situation (look at basket-case Pakistan with nukes!), but that's where we're at. (One of the main reasons we nuked 2 Japanese cities was precisely to teach the Russians that we were ready to use them. The other reason was to test these horrific weapons. Nothing to do with ending the war; that had been possible for a few months already.)
So yes, the point is solid and well understood by military experts: what nation is going to push the button to see itself reduced to rubble very quickly.
But if we keep producing terrorists at the rate we are right now....
Good one NYCartist
Moving forward - busting out of the ugliness of the Bush years - comparison just to reset the scales - is a whopping good exercise and unparalleled for recharging the will to live and thrive.
The National Priorities Project compiles data bases of cost/choice tradeoffs- town, state, nation...
A great site to bookmark for those sparring calls
http://www.nationalpriorities.org/tradeoffs?location_type=4&state=33&town=999&program=999&tradeoff_ite...
Considering that the USA was drawn towards being a hegemonic world power & was culturally ill-equipped to do so (colonial wars like Vietnam is not our style), it will be better if a multi-tiered, multi-power world emerges. The disturbing part of the report is its assessment regarding the rise of Russia. Considering its governance is basically unchanged since the time of the Czars, their becoming the dominant power could be quite dangerous. China as well for the same reasons, as their governance is basically the same as their dynastic period, with only the method with which the figurehead of the bureaucracy is chosen being different. What will be interesting to see is where the EU, India, & the tiger economies of Southeast Asia end up being at.
www.wunderman-comics.com
I like this one too. I added to it.
Capitalism equals Meritocracy equals abuse from the talented...
...or abuse by ignorant cutthroat thieves who exploit this gee-whiz “free” market and who’ve figured out how to rip everyone else off.
I’ve seen it in my own family- Globalizers, who, thankfully, are now facing multiple indictments for pretty bad things. Ick.
The aforementioned family member brought it on himself, even using the religion I once cared about to justify it. He was a HUGE Bush supporter. Go figure.
I have absolutely no sympathy. Double ick.
I definitely should have included at the minimum, Brazil (which just became energy independent), though the rest of Latin America needs to develop more transparent governance that eschews crony capitalism (Mexico will move forward the instant they do the aforementioned) and gets more equal wealth distribution throughout their societies. As for a tolerant India, they will need to break off the shackles of the caste system to really become a true super power.
www.wunderman-comics.com
"The world .... will be haunted by the persistence of rogue states ..."
The article fails to identify who is guilty of this. I suggest that
the USA and Israel certainly qualify as 'rogue states'. They continually flout and ignore established international law . They both invade other countries and maintain illegal occupations of foreign countries. They both initiate aggressive war, judged to be the supreme war crime in the Nuremberg Principles.
There are good people in both the US and Israel. Time for some real change.
Yes, we tend to be the victims of language. "Rogue states," "terrorists," "evil kingdoms," and the like all fall under the rubric of name calling. Demonizing our enemies has been with us since we were tribes of baboons. It is too bad this hurling of verbal excrement passes for thinking and precludes any rational assessment of our circumstances that might lead to escape from our ancient ruts.
"War,' for example, is a sloppy word that means, I suppose, "people fighting." Bush assumes the powers of a wartime president because he has picked a fight with the Muslim world. Yet we do not call an act of piracy a war. The unilateral invasion of a country that has not attacked or provoked us and the seizing of its oil resources is not a war, it is armed robbery. Yet the phrase "the Iraq war" falls from our lips as naturally as if made sense to call it that, and prevents us from seeing things clearly.
Does anyone know the karma -- payback -- for invading a country i.e. Iraq, that was no threat, occupying it, and killing well over a million defenseless people? On second thought, I'm sorry I asked.
I'd say that you are paying for it right now.
But, but I protested loudly and was part of the anti-war group that insisted Iraq was not involved in 9/11, was no threat, and shouldn't be attacked. I reminded everyone that Iraq had weapons inspectors there doing their job and were almost finished......so why should I have to be included in the bad karma? Life is not fair.
I was there with you, my friend. I, too did a lot to stop this administration from getting it's dumbass fucking war. Seriously, I went to jail, organized this and that, made historic stinks to keep the Bush Cabal from moving forward with the whole PNAC bullshit. I even have seven years of related college under my belt. We all know the score now. The politeness has been blasted right out of me.
I don't count myself in Amerikkka's Karma, so as far as I'm concerned, you're cool. Just make sure you're somehow positioned with the good in this country when the rest of it falls into the abyss.
Join the international FUN PARTY!
FUN PARTY PLATFORM:
--Have as much fun as possible without harming others, destroying the environment or hoarding the resources we all need to have fun.
--Rid the world of impediments to having fun like hunger, disease, pollution, overpopulation, war, ignorance, fundamentalism, hate, suspicion, racism, sexism, homophobia, jingoism, superstition, greed, suffering, pain and all other negative influences.
--Dedicate ourselves to creating ways of having fun.
--Realize that we can increase our fun by increasing other people's fun.
--Realize that our highest calling is to have fun.
--Realize that Paradise, Utopia, Nirvana, Heaven and Shangri-la are the most fun places and we can make them here on earth while still alive.
--Realize that the world has all the ingredients for having the most fun if we can nourish and protect it.
--Make all decisions in a decentralized direct democratic way without leaders or dictators that would take away our right to have fun.
Yeah! We're all about the FUN PARTY!
We're not organized, we're an organism!
The only ism we're into is organism (that's us)!
And we should abandon the dollar (it's worthless anyway).
Start our own currency called "Love Notes".
Any other FUN ideas out there?
Ooo, this is gonna be FUN!
Yeeehaaaaw!!!
Damn eze -
Now that Obama has been elected you have let your hair down.
Now is the time for celebrating.
A new dawn is here!
.Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.....
Dawn is a wonderful time of day, always a new and breathtaking experience. But it should not be conflated with change for the sake of change, especially when that change is not really that much of a change.
.
We see things, not as they are, but as we are.
Anais Nin
History repeats itself. The UK gave independence to its colonies because it could no longer afford to keep them. The US may end its role as "World cop" for the same reason. The sooner we end it the better.
History does NOT merely repeat itself. That is a naive assessment.
People just don't learn from former judgement calls. They learn and interpret them in specific ways.
KeLeMi - try looking up some substantial facts on the so-called end of British imperialism/colonialism. It has not happened yet! Then look up McNamara's strategy for VietNam occupation and then compare that to Obama's strategy for Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan.
It is so ironic that no one is seemingly interested in "history" because it is the past and we are only moving forward. If more people truly understood historical facts and the current debates about them, then perhaps we could move forward.
Mark Twain said: "History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes."
To not understand the lessons of history is to be very vulnerable to repeating its mistakes.
The lessons about what to expect by invading Afghanistan, for instance, are deep and old. Yet these PNAC neo-con simpletons thought they had a better idea. While our fate in Afghanistan might not be a close parallel to the experiences of Alexander the Great, the Brits, the Ruskies, etc., the underlying dynamics sure rhyme pretty loudly.
We basically stepped into the same doodoo because our idiot leaders failed to understand basic lessons of history. Maybe if it had been written in "My Pet Goat": Don't invade Afghanistan....BAAAD
Expect Obama to start backpeddling on that one.
We are billions at the top of the food chain. We are the end result of the evolution of an highly aggressive and intelligent ape who has atomic bombs instead of shit and sticks to throw at one another. Nope, I don't see much ahead for us. But then, I'm not the CIA.
Before you trust the experts, remember Greenspan.
A half-educated guess at best. Ya could easily turn it around:
"The world of the near future will be subject to a decreased likelihood of conflict over resources, including food and water, and will be not be haunted by the persistence of rogue states and terrorist groups with greater access to nuclear weapons as more and more people adopt the paradigm that "we're all in this together" and renounce violence, start distributing resources more equally and eliminate all nukes."
"The likelihood that nuclear weapons will be used will severely diminish, mostly due to the realization that the consequences would be obliteration; nuke technology will be ever-harder to acquire, and access to parts and supplies will be severely limited until all nukes are eliminated."
"Although global warming will aggravate the scarcity of water, food and energy resources, the newly enlightened world majority will organize to avert any serious catastrophes. Climate change could force up to 200 million people to migrate to more temperate zones, and all will be accommodated without turmoil."
"The international system will be almost unrecognizable by 2025, as it will be a system based on fairness, equality and the preservation of humanity and the planet. Only the war, money, and power-mongers will find it unrecognizable, but most of them will be dead by then anyway."
Excellent Frank.
Sign me up.
Totally unrealistic. An optimist is a happy fool, and a pessimist is an unhappy fool. What we need are realists.
We may not get to the situation described in the report. But nothing is more obvious than we're heading down that road right now, and there's nothing whatever in sight to justify your sunny optimism. We may turn it around, and it wouldn't surprise me all that much if we did; as a species we're pretty resourceful. We've also displayed unbelievable amounts of stupidity, cruelty, etc., etc.
Already, the globe is awash in ugliness and suffering.
It's extremely good that we have people making noise about where we're going to get to if we don't change our ways. Realists. That's what we need. Not people who think that we can make everything alright by saying that it's alright.
Hard to understand people attempting to discredit those who warn us about the dangers of playing with matches and gasoline.
Frank,
I love the way you think!
Thank you
Thanks for more scare tactics.
Psychological warfare, couldn't have said it better myself! Our government wants to ensure that people stay out of sync with their higher selves! Fear and negativity is exactly how it is done. They have been doing it now for centuries!
op⋅pres⋅sion /əˈprɛʃən/ Show Spelled Pronunciation [uh-presh-uhn] Show IPA Pronunciation
–noun 1. the exercise of authority or power in a burdensome, cruel, or unjust manner.
2. an act or instance of oppressing.
3. the state of being oppressed.
4. the feeling of being heavily burdened, mentally or physically, by troubles, adverse conditions, anxiety, etc.
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/oppression
They can scare us only so much before we give up and stop caring. I think they have worn out the solace we might get from giving them more power.
After a while people get tired of riding on roller coasters. The price of the thrill just isn't cutting it!
"To every thing turn turn turn.....”. Our empire is no different. And not even Obama can reverse the course we are presently on. All our social, political and economic institutions have been corrupted into serving the needs of the elite. But things are so bad even for the elite that they are being forced to dig deeper into the pockets of middleclass America, thus weakening the backbone of our economy. The government is outsourcing the services it is required to provide, to corporate America, who is now profiting in these ventures, directly at the expense of the middleclass. When the auto workers are blamed for the failures of their corporate bosses, and our elected officials swallow that lie, it’s another sign the middleclass is in for hard times. Now the burden of being the wall between the elite and the pissed off poor, falls on the upper middleclass, who are the best save-your-own-ass players in the empire. They have grown up in the system and will gladly sell-out their blue collar brothers, just to remain players. “To every thing turn turn turn…”.
Hoa binh
"The next two decades will see a world living with the daily threat of nuclear war, environmental catastrophe and the decline of America as the dominant global power..."
Huh? This has been true for the LAST two decades.
ZZZZzzzzzzzzzz
There will indeed be a Tsunami if this report comes close to the truth. The world will pay a heavy price.
Thomas More: I saw the movie that the photo is from,"(I think it was "The Day After Tomorrow" fiction) with this article. It seemed peculiar to me, although I liked the ending. Question: can you think of any article or book (besides George Orwell's "1984") that was an accurate prediction of the future, nonfiction? No doubt the report is in the interest of prevention, but I am curious for your answer.
Alduous Huxley's BRAVE NEW WORLD ????? I read it a long time ago and much of what he said has come to pass, but I don't remember the conclusion. Perhaps I preferred to forget.
/cm
???????????????????????
She was asking for: Non-fiction!!
Brave New World is much more fiction than 99.9% of literature, in that it doesn't at all resemble real life like, for example: Madame Bovary, War and Peace, Catcher in the Rye, Streetcar Named Desire, Death of a Salesman, etc., etc., etc.
It's a work of 'wild' futuristic fiction where obviously Huxley takes some worrisome (to him) tendencies, and wildly exaggerates where it could lead to hundreds of years in the future, and what you get doesn't at all resemble life on earth then or now. You wrote: "...much of what he said has come to pass..."!!!!????? Just read it again. Following are 2 quotes from a website devoted to BNW (http://www.huxley.net/)
"Brave New World is a benevolent dictatorship: a static, efficient, totalitarian welfare-state. There is no war, poverty or crime. Society is stratified by genetically-predestined caste. Intellectually superior Alphas are the top-dogs. Servile, purposely brain-damaged Gammas, Deltas and Epsilons toil away at the bottom."
"In Brave New World, there is no depth of feeling, no ferment of ideas, and no artistic creativity. Individuality is suppressed. Intellectual excitement and discovery have been abolished. Its inhabitants are laboratory-grown clones..."
NO WAR, NO POVERTY, NO CRIME... INHABITANTS ARE LABORATORY-GROWN CLONES!!!! ("...much of what he said has come to pass..."!!!)
Always Look on the Bright Side of Life
Some things in life are bad,
They can really make you mad,
Other things just make you swear and curse,
When you're chewing life's gristle,
Don't grumble,
Give a whistle
And this'll help things turn out for the best.
And...
Always look on the bright side of life.
[whistle]
Always look on the light side of life.
[whistle]
If life seems jolly rotten,
There's something you've forgotten,
And that's to laugh and smile and dance and sing.
When you're feeling in the dumps,
Don't be silly chumps.
Just purse your lips and whistle.
That's the thing.
And...
Always look on the bright side of life.
[whistle]
Always look on the right side of life,
[whistle]
For life is quite absurd
And death's the final word.
You must always face the curtain with a bow.
Forget about your sin.
Give the audience a grin.
Enjoy it. It's your last chance, anyhow.
So,...
Always look on the bright side of death,
[whistle]
Just before you draw your terminal breath.
[whistle]
Life's a piece of shit,
When you look at it.
Life's a laugh and death's a joke it's true.
You'll see it's all a show.
Keep 'em laughing as you go.
Just remember that the last laugh is on you.
And...
Always look on the bright side of life.
Always look on the right side of life.
[whistle]
Always look on the bright side of life!
[whistle]
Always look on the bright side of life!
[whistle]
Always look on the bright side of life!
[whistle]
Always look on the bright side of life!
[whistle]
Always look on the bright side of life!
[whistle]
Always look on the bright side of life!
[whistle]
Always look on the bright side of life!
[whistle]
Always look on the bright side of life!
[whistle]
Repeat to fade...
Good ol' Monty Python. =]
While I hope not the only way human beings could have prevente their destruction by their own hands of either modern day weapons or the destruction of the earth would have been to live like the Native Tribes used to live upon the earth.
The Hopi prophecies state this land will pretty much be burnt off the face of the earth by man made weapons that they now consider to be modern day weapons. The prophecies of other peoples & biblical prophecies indicate much the same about the use of such weapons.
Interesting to me is that there were Native Tribes who did not want to learn the knowledge of Europeans when they began arriving as they considered such knowledge to be forbidden. Interesting they had a concept that there was knowledge that was forbidden. In the bible Creator/God speaks about the increase in knowledge but not in any good light at all.
Karma is merely the circle. Invent weapons that can destroy most of the human population of the earth & they may come back to haunt you at some other time within the thing called time.
Even Jesus taught the circle or Spiritual Circle with such teachings as love your enemies, return good for evil done to you, forgive & you will be forgiven, & pray for those who use you despitefully.
Life is good.
Empires come and go--Just like the Greek gods, the Roman gods, the Indian gods, Aztec gods and on and on.
Sure our empire is over! No big thing!
The empire is broke, the spirit is lacking, the oil is peaking and the leadership is truly Roman.
Time to sit back and relax and enjoy the aftermath of empire--quiet nights at home, no running off to invade and torture, no more ponzi scheming, alchemisty whiz kids on Wall Street turning toxic mortgages into gold--now we can go quietly into the night and be like other post empire countries--Spain, Britain and Holland.
Dr Wu, the last of the big-time thinkers
.Hee, I do enjoy a Dr. Wu post.
" Tho' much is taken, much abides;
And tho' we are not now that strength
which in olden days moved earth and heaven,
that which we are, we are."
Alfred, Lord Tennyson
I do believe that the decline and fall of the American Empire can be a positive, given that it is a peaceful and gradual occurance. But there is a struggle which remains to be fought, the restoration of the social contract between our govt and our people. We have no universal health care, an essential to the nation I would be proud to call mine own. We have eliminated or drastically reduced the safety nets that I believe our founders envisioned when they noted that a prime duty of govt is to provide for the general welfare. Regardless of our foreign policy defficiencies, regardless of the collapse of our empire abroad, this battle remains to be waged, right here at home.
"All of us are in the gutter,
but some of us are staring up at stars."
Oscar Wilde
We see things, not as they are, but as we are.
Anais Nin
We missed opportunities to halt, or even reverse this trend,thanks to the unlearned and/or apathetic voters who helped this administration steal elections; and then stood by as they sold us out to the special intrests by blocking environmental and social reforms.
Yes, and what I believe will remain a challenge to humanity despite all lessons learnt will be the foresight and wisdom to aptly understand the outcomes and influences of belief systems.
How many times have long-term considerations been subordinated to short-term interests? How many times have thoughts for posterity and future well-being been equated with an impractical idealism? Why is it that personal spirituality is not correlated with the common good, and common interest not correlated with personal responsibility? How can so many folks not know how their individual lack of learning, their apathy and/or self-absorption is at the root of so many of society's ills? And most pertinent of all, why is it so hard to comprehend how thoughts and choices and guiding principles rooted in fear or greed can only result in negative outcomes? Military hegemony, money created from debt, nationalism based on separation rather than cooperation, and beliefs of superiority are never sustainably constructive.
Sioux Rose
COSMO: What you describe is essentially the psychological aspect of the mindset I define as MARS rules. For one thing, the corporate state with its myriad corporations that use the media to turn citizens into consumers relies upon the maximum number of sales. So... market to the SINGLE DIGIT consumer, and one way to do this is to make each person/ego center of the universe. The ego-driven individual is accustomed to a strong sense of self (even a flawed self), so it's not hard to use that force to identify self with nation, and turn both against another who is "marketed" as dangerous other/enemy.
Mars rules teaches competition in school, exalts the athlete and acts of conquest, makes an ownership of guns/personal weapons practically a religious mantra, glorifies the warrior/hero, and gives most of its hard-earned assets TO the military. Media reinforces these stereotypes and behaviors so much that it's all taken for WHAT IS. Hardly. It's IS what's been SHAPED, and shaped to suit the old god Mars and his love of blood shed in his name. As if ANY Of these approaches has anything remotely to do with Jesus. Yet much is done in His name. (And I am neither giving the fundamentalist Muslims or Jews a spiritual pass in making this point, for they no doubt use similar cues and motivational devices for the same toxic ends.)
The beginning of the end...
you are not a person