French Left Made a Heroic Dent, But the Far-Right March Continues in Europe
Le Pen took advantage of widespread dissatisfaction with Macron. But now the ball is in the court of the left, and the weather forecast is not too bright.
In the last few months, Europe has been in a social and political turmoil of disturbing proportions. The main issues, such as increased migration, the cost of living, and national security, are pushing climate catastrophe and serious alternatives to capitalism to the background. Extreme right-wing parties are on the rise while the left is obviously having trouble reaching potential supporters. Or so it has seemed.
One of the reasons for the rise of right-wing populists is that dissatisfied citizens can relate to their emotional, nostalgic rhetoric about homelands invaded by migrants that endanger “our” way of life and identity by taking away jobs, housing, and security. In addition, these populists are downplaying the need for serious measures to slow down climate change by insisting, simplistically and manipulatively, that they want to spare ordinary people the expense of costly projects.
By contrast, left wing parties are warning that security must be secured for the future, keeping climate change and the resolution of international conflicts in the foreground.
Return Visit
The migration issue remains fertile ground for right-wing mobilization and manipulation. The radical right chooses not to speak about movements of population in general terms. They ignore the fact that migration, as a trend, is as old as humankind. These days it even represents a form of countermovement. After centuries of exploration and later colonialization that started from Europe, people are now coming to the Old Continent for a return visit. Their countries were often left devastated when Europeans decided to leave, and now they are searching for a new beginning on the soil of their conquerors. Or they are refuges from the wars started, helped, or provoked by the West.
When the numbers of newcomers start to be overwhelming, problems are inevitable. In Western Europe, the greatest cumulative impact of the migrations has been in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Austria, and Sweden. The right-wing parties there are vehemently promising to do something without proposing any workable solution. In fairness, the countries of Europe haven’t been able to come up with any convincing and effective common strategy for many decades. The result is polarization, and a lack of security for all.
In The Netherlands, the far right has turned this perennial problem into an electoral opportunity.
Elections and Drama
The Dutch elections, in which the big winner was the Party for Freedom (PVV) of Geert Wilders, are seven months in the past, but only a few days ago the new government was sworn in by the king. Long-standing Prime Minister Mark Rutte handed over the keys of the office to his successor Dick Schoof, jumped on his bicycle, and rode happily into the sunset, or more precisely, to his new post as the head of NATO. Schoof was the secretary-general at the Ministry of Justice and Security from 2020 to 2024. He was a member of the Labour Party (PvdA) for over 30 years until he left in early 2021. Now, without party affiliation, he’s in charge of the extra parliamentary cabinet composed of several parties anchored by the PVV.
Schoof’s baptism of fire took place at the beginning of July, during his first address to the House of Representatives. It was not a pleasant occasion and most of the time he was under attack both from the opposition and from members of his cabinet. He failed to reproach two of his ministers, both from PVV, for racist remarks concerning women with headscarves, the replacement of the population, and the spreading of conspiracy theories. The opposition was far from satisfied, and so was Wilders, who expected Schoof to protect his ministers whatever they say. Cracks in the right-wing coalition are already visible, journalists will have no shortage of scandals to report on, and the politically inexperienced Schoof will have difficulty holding everything together.
The EU parliamentary elections have been expected with dread by left and progressive forces. For some time, it seemed inevitable that the right would achieve overwhelming success. The Italian Fratelli d’Italia, the Alternative for Germany, and the French National Rally expected to win the elections. As it happened, they came close. The results point to a strong shift in the political atmosphere in Europe compared to the previous round of votes in 2019, though the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) remains the strongest group in the European Parliament, which is good news for its leader, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
The new parliament is going to be less environmentally friendly, more fragmented, and increasingly unwelcoming toward migrants. The Greens, which made strong gains in the 2019 elections, took a major hit by losing 19 seats. On the other hand, these elections are a sort of referendum for national leaders. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) suffered a defeat, while the extreme-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), scored its best results in history. President Emmanuel Macron is the big loser and Marine Le Pen the big winner, as is Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. For Hungary’s nationalist leader Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party, it was the worst-ever result in a European Parliament election. His friend Geert Wilders’ far-right party also fell short of expectations and came in behind a Left-Green alliance.
Two recent elections also kept the emotions flying high. In the United Kingdom, the Labour Party won big and the Tories lost after 14 years in power. Tory leader Rishi Sunak has resigned, and he has no obvious job to bike off to. The centrist Liberal Democrats made some gains. Smaller parties like the Greens, the far-right Reform UK party of Nigel Farage, and independent candidates also picked up several seats. Farage is satisfied and optimistic: “This is just the first step of something that is going to stun all of you,” he declared in the early hours of Friday morning.”
Who will be stunned and how is anybody’s guess. But after the victory, the Labour Party will have to move quickly to achieve the change it has promised, such as restoring the health of Britain’s ailing National Health Service, improving transport, curbing the costs of living, strengthening the country’s ties with its European partners, and tackling problems of illegal migration in a gentler way. The center left must still prove itself, and Jeremy Corbyn, further to the left, will no doubt be watching carefully from the seat in the House of Commons that he won again.
The polls indicated a Labour victory in the UK well in advance, while in France the situation was unpredictable up to the last moment. The winners are the newly established New Popular Front (NFP) alliance that brings together leftists from different parties. Their proclaimed goals are to cap prices of essential goods like fuel and food, raise the minimum wage to a net 1,600 euros per month, increase wages for public sector workers, and impose a wealth tax. They want to govern, but it remains to be seen how they will manage. The general atmosphere in France is one of relief that the far right is stopped for the moment. But the key question is whether the “awkward” leftist alliance hastily put together by Communists, Greens, and Socialists will manage to put aside their differences and agree on a common course. National Rally leader Jordan Bardella called the cooperation between anti-RN forces a “disgraceful alliance” that would paralyze France.
Rising Right
Le Pen took advantage of widespread dissatisfaction with Macron. But now the ball is in the court of the left, and the weather forecast is not too bright. However, the undoubtedly positive message of the French elections is that the left can come together and do well when the motivation is strong enough.
But new right-wing alliances are taking shape. The brand new one that Wilders recently joined a few days ago is Patriots for Europe, formed by right-wing parties from Czechia, Hungary, and Austria. It looks like they are not going to be short of candidates. Marine Le Pan and Matteo Salvini also joined the group. In The Guardian, Petr Fiala issued a withering assessment of the new group: “Let’s call a spade a spade. Patriots for Europe serves the interests of Russia, either consciously or unconsciously, and thus it threatens the security and freedom of Europe.” The Patriots’ Manifesto emphasizes its intention to “protect Europe’s Christian roots,” ensure “the strongest possible protection of Europe’s external borders,” and create a “strong competitive Europe.” The group will become the third-largest force in the European parliament and the largest-ever far-right bloc in the history of the assembly.
In other European countries, inside and outside of the EU, numerous struggles and battles of diverse forms are constantly evolving. Most widespread but somewhat restrained now have been mass demonstrations of climate activists and their supporters and student protests against atrocities in Gaza. With hotter days ahead and the West continuing to send aid and weapons to Israel, these protests are surely going to continue.
