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Will American democracy survive this onslaught, straight out of the Dictator’s Playbook? To a large extent, that will depend on you, me, and our elected officials summoning the courage to resist and protest loudly. And our media to call it out for what it is.
Most jobs have a “playbook,” a sort of instruction manual or checklist for how to do the job right, whether it’s running an assembly line, piloting an aircraft, or redoing a house’s plumbing.
Although our media seems oblivious to it, dictators have a playbook, too.
It’s one that’s been carefully followed in recent times by Putin, Orbán, Erdoğon, Duterte, Bolsonaro, and numerous initially-elected leaders of other smaller nations. In previous generations the Dictator’s Playbook was followed, step-by-step, by Mussolini, Hitler, Franco, Marcos, Pinochet, Stalin, and Tojo (among others).
And now it’s being followed by Donald Trump and JD Vance, who’re a bit more than halfway through the list. Trump’s speech yesterday before our assembled military generals and admirals — telling them they should use our American cities as “training grounds” for the military whose job is to “kill people and break things” — is getting us closer to the final steps.
“We are under invasion from within,” Trump said, “no different than a foreign enemy, but more difficult in many ways, because they don’t wear uniforms. … We’re under invasion from within.”
And who is this enemy that’s so bad, so evil, that Trump just declared war against? He was explicit that the “enemies” are his political opponents and average people who live in our big cities:
“The ones that are run by the radical left Democrats... what they’ve done to San Francisco, Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, they’re very unsafe places. And we’re going to straighten them out one by one. This is going to be a major part for some of the people in this room. That’s a war too. It’s a war from within.”
What’s most astonishing about the reporting on this meeting is that none of the media I follow have even once mentioned that militarizing the nation’s cities is one of the most significant steps in the Dictator’s Playbook.
Combine that with the demand for absolute loyalty to the Dear Leader — Trump told the generals “If you don’t like what I’m saying, you can leave the room” — and he’s declared himself the absolute ruler of America wielding the most lethal military in the history of the world against our nation’s own citizens.
Rachel Maddow recently laid out five moves that dictators reliably make.
— First, they identify an internal enemy to blame for social ills; Trump has spent years turning immigrants, big cities, and universities into scapegoats. Now, like every dictator listed above has done, he’s claiming that the opposition political party, the Democrats, are an “enemy within.”
— Second, they turn security forces inward, exactly what Trump’s new call for turning our military against our cities represents. The moment a dictator turns military forces built to destroy foreign adversaries against his own people, the rest of the transformation becomes easier.
— Third, they criminalize dissent and protest, insisting that when people show up in the streets it is not constitutionally protected free speech and the right “peaceably to assemble and petition the Government for a redress of grievances” but a security “threat” to be crushed rather than heard and responded to.
— Fourth, they intimidate or capture the press and punish truth-telling, as we’re seeing now with rightwing billionaires capturing virtually every major traditional and social media source in America.
— Fifth, they seize control of independent institutions like universities, law firms, or the civil service to eliminate any professional standards that interfere with Dear Leader’s will.
Overlay that list with the work of historians and political scientists like Timothy Snyder, Steven Levitsky, Daniel Ziblatt, Ruth Ben-Ghiat, Jason Stanley, and M. Gessen. Their research on how democracies die all point to the same ingredients:
— Deny or rewrite election results to delegitimize democracy itself.
— Declare political opponents enemies of the state.
— Turn independent institutions like the Department of Justice, the civil service, and the military into personal tools.
— Flood the public square with lies so thoroughly (Steve Bannon proudly called it “flooding the zone with shit”) that reality itself becomes negotiable.
— Tolerate or celebrate political violence on behalf of the dictator, and demonize violence against his followers and mouthpieces as sedition and treason.
— Demand personal loyalty instead of constitutional duty.
— Invoke a mythic past and promise national rebirth if only the strongman is given total sovereignty.
— Use his office to rapidly enrich himself and his family while creating a patronage network of loyalists who owe their fortunes to him.
There is also the money. Autocrats rarely forget to convert state power into private wealth. Trump’s hotels, golf courses, and commercial properties brought in millions from foreign governments during his first time in office, as documented by House Oversight Committee findings.
His son-in-law Jared Kushner secured a two-billion-dollar investment from Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund almost immediately after leaving the White House. Ivanka Trump picked up fast-tracked Chinese trademarks while advising her father in government.
Kleptocracy is not a side effect of authoritarianism or fascism: it’s essential, particularly when some of that fortune is shared with those willing to break the law to support Dear Leader. So far, according to reporting, Trump and his family have made at least $5 billion from his 9-month-long presidency. It’s a core feature of the Dictator’s Playbook.
And when people protest the theft of the nation’s resources and the personal enrichment based on handing out favors, dictators go after them in the most brutal ways imaginable. It begins with investigations, but never ends there. Just look at what he’s doing to Jim Comey and Miles Taylor.
And now Trump has issued a National Security Presidential Memorandum that essentially says Democrats, atheists, Muslims, Jews, socialists, and queer people are terrorists. Not because of anything they’ve done, but because of who they are or what they believe.
It directs the FBI, DOJ, and over 200 Joint Terrorism Task Forces coordinated with police forces across the country to investigate anybody who meet it’s “indica” (indicators) of potential terrorism. They include, as Ken Klippenstein reported:
“[A]nti-Americanism, anti-capitalism, anti-Christianity, support for the overthrow of the United States Government, extremism on migration, extremism on race, extremism on gender, hostility towards those who hold traditional American views on family, hostility towards those who hold traditional American views on religion, and hostility towards those who hold traditional American views on morality.”
Do any of those sound like you? If Trump and Republicans continue down this road, get ready to have your life turned upside down as they tear apart your social media profiles, search your email and postal mail, surveil you, and one day bang on your door in the middle of the night.
And you don’t have to have actually done a thing. Trump’s order explicitly calls on the FBI and local police coordinating with them to “intervene in criminal conspiracies before they result in violent political acts.”
To go after you before you do anything, based entirely on who you are, who you love, what you believe, and what you say.
That is not the America our Founders, or the men and women who’ve fought and died to keep us free for 249 years, envisioned. And, again, the mainstream media almost entirely missed it while rightwing media ignored it altogether. Even though one day it may be directed against them if they say or do anything to offend Donald Trump or his henchmen.
When Trump told the generals he would remove anyone who does not “agree with everything I say,” he also embraced the logic of tyrants who treat disagreement as insubordination.
Democracies rely on officers sworn to the Constitution, not to one man. Trump is trying to undo that distinction. He’s demanding personal loyalty backed by the threat of firing, demotion, or public shaming. Civilian control of the military that George Washington and James Madison insisted on becomes a hollow phrase when the civilian in charge demands the military serve his whims.
What once sounded like fringe rhetoric is now proclaimed loudly to the uniformed leadership of the United States. The generals who heard him are not hypothetical. They command forces, oversee operations, and embody the principle that the military does not exist to occupy American streets.
The notion that they should roll tanks into urban neighborhoods to harden troops for foreign war is not law enforcement: it’s preparation for ruling America by force, a force that may well be preparing for the November, 2026 elections.
This is the kind of moment historians point back to later with disbelief. The warnings have been clear for years, but now the mask is off.
Even though our media insists on ignoring it, the Dictator’s Playbook has always included using a nation’s biggest cities as the stage for demonstrating power. It’s always required replacing officers and officials who follow the laws and traditions of a nation with loyalists who obey without question. It’s always depended on turning people against one another so Dear Leader and his lickspittles can step in as the only source of safety or authority.
Nobody can say this is a surprise: Trump pretty much campaigned on exactly what he’s doing now, and people from former intelligence, military, and FBI leaders to scholars of fascism warned us this was coming if Republicans suppressed enough votes for him to win. (Without the GOP having prevented 4.2 million registered citizen voters from voting or having their votes counted, Kamala Harris would have won and the House and Senate would today be under Democratic control).
The question now is whether Americans will accept a president who treats their hometowns as battle simulations and sees disagreement by generals and agency leaders as an offense punishable by firing, imprisonment, or exile.
As I point out in my new book The Last American President, it’ll depend on whether we’ll stand up and speak out. Or whether, like our media and so many universities, law firms, media outlets, and giant corporations, we’ll cower in fear and submit to Trump’s demands.
That is not law and order, and it’s not democracy in a free republic. It’s the language of autocracy that yesterday was spoken out loud in front of the armed forces of the United States and is echoed every time Trump attacks a reporter, media outlet, or one of his many “enemies.”
Will American democracy survive this onslaught, straight out of the Dictator’s Playbook? To a large extent, that will depend on you, me, and our elected officials summoning the courage to resist and protest loudly. And our media to call it out for what it is.
The clock is ticking, and these guys are racing for the finish line.
The provision would force those challenging Trump "to pay up in the form of a posted bond—something many people can't afford to do. That means only the wealthy will be able to even attempt to challenge the most powerful man in the country."
A single paragraph buried deep in a spending bill that passed the GOP-controlled House of Representatives earlier this month is causing growing concern among democracy watchdogs who warn the provision will make it so only the well-to-do would be in a good position to launch legal challenges against a Trump administration that has shown over and over again its disdain and disregard for oversight or judicial restraint of any kind.
Coming just about half-way through what President Donald Trump has dubbed the Republican Party's so-called "One Big Beautiful Bill Act"—which progressive critics point out is a giant giveaway to the nation's wealthiest at the expense of the working class and the common good—the language in question is slight, but could have far-reaching impacts.
"This is what autocrats do. Consolidate power, increase the penalty for objecting, ultimately making it more difficult—eventually impossible—to challenge them."
On Saturday, Human Rights Watch (HRW) noted in a detailed social media thread how the provision "hasn't gotten nearly enough scrutiny" from lawmakers or the public.
A recent piece by USA Today columnist Chris Brennan put it this way:
One paragraph, on pages 562 and 563 of the 1,116-page bill, raised alarms for reasons that have nothing to do with America's budget or safety-net programs or debt. That paragraph invokes a federal rule for civil court procedures, requiring anyone seeking an injunction or temporary restraining order to block an action by the Trump administration to post a financial bond.
Want to challenge Trump? Pay up, the provision said in a way that could make it financially prohibitive for Americans to contest Trump's actions in court.
HRW details how the provision, if included in the final legislation, "would make it more expensive to fight Trump's policies in court by invoking a federal rule that effectively punishes anyone willing to stand up against the administration."
Anyone seeking a legal action that would involve an injunction request against a presidential order or policy, the group said, would to face a much larger barrier because Republicans would make it so that anyone challenging Trump in court in this way would "have to pay up in the form of a posted bond—something many people can't afford to do. That means only the wealthy will be able to even attempt to challenge the most powerful man in the country."
Erwin Chemerinsky, dean of the University of California, Berkeley School of Law, was among the first to highlight the buried provision, calling it both "unprecedented" and "terrible" in a May 19 essay in which he argued that the ultimate effect of the provision is to shield members of the administration from contempt of court orders through the extraordinary limit on those who can bring challenges in the first place. Chemerinsky writes:
By its very terms this provision is meant to limit the power of federal courts to use their contempt power. It does so by relying on a relatively rarely used provision of the Rules that govern civil cases in federal court. Rule 65(c) says that judges may issue a preliminary injunction or a temporary restraining order "only if the movant gives security in an amount that the court considers proper to pay the costs and damages sustained by any party found to have been wrongfully enjoined or restrained."
But federal courts understandably rarely require that a bond be posted by those who are restraining unconstitutional federal, state, or local government actions. Those seeking such court orders generally do not have the resources to post a bond, and insisting on it would immunize unconstitutional government conduct from judicial review. It always has been understood that courts can choose to set the bond at zero.
Given his critique, Chemerinsky argued, "There is no way to understand this except as a way to keep the Trump administration from being restrained when it violates the Constitution or otherwise breaks the law. The House and the Senate should reject this effort to limit judicial power."
Human Rights Watch appeared to agree with the profound dangers to the rule of law if the provision survives to Trump's desk for signature.
"This is yet another sign of Trump's brazen attempts to stop the judicial branch from holding him accountable," the group warned. "This is what autocrats do. Consolidate power, increase the penalty for objecting, ultimately making it more difficult—eventually impossible—to challenge them."
The imprisonment of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, the far-right president's top political rival, has unleashed a new wave of protests against increasingly autocratic rule.
International outrage and charges of "viciousness" and "outright autocracy" have followed Sunday's imprisonment of Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's top political rival, the popular Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, who is seen as Erdogan's likeliest opposition challenger in upcoming national elections.
The corruption charges levied against İmamoğlu, a member of the Republican People's Party (CHP), are seen as politically motivated and follow days of sustained protests by opposition voices opposed to Erdoğan's increasingly authoritarian rule.
Tens of thousands marched and clashed with riot police after fresh protests erupted Sunday in Istanbul and elsewhere in the country following the court's actions against İmamoğlu and on Monday, the CHP announced that nearly 15 million people, members and non-members alike, participated in national primaries to support the jailed mayor's candidacy to face off against Erdoğan in the next election.
The non-member vote of more than 13 million, "could indicate," reports NBC News, "that İmamoğlu, 54, enjoys wide public support beyond the party faithful. The party's chairman said it showed the need for early elections."
Writing for Politico Europe, opinion editor Jamie Dettmer argues that that timing of Erdoğan's targeting of İmamoğlu has everything to do with the return of U.S. President Donald Trump to the international scene.
Erdoğan, Dettmer wrote on Saturday, "has spent years eroding democracy, stifling dissent and purging the country's army and civil service. Now, it looks as though he's chosen this geopolitical moment to bury the legacy of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the secular founder of the Republic of Turkey." He continued:
Erdoğan would harbor no worries as to Trump’s disapproval. The two have lavished priase on each other for years, and the Turkish leader has said he supports his American counterpart’s peace initiative in Ukraine—no doubt music to Trump’s ears.
Erdoğan isn't alone among the once embattled autocrats—and would-be autocrats—sniffing the change in the geopolitical air, and reckoning they're on the cusp of a new era, able to erase the rules and norms of old and replace them with ones more to their liking. It's influencing their behavior as they look to each other for inspiration and new ideas for running their respective countries—whether it be weaponizing policies affecting sexual minorities, scapegoating migrants, sharpening attacks on independent media, transforming public broadcasters into government mouthpieces or just closing them down.
Since his arrest on March 19, the ousted mayor has denied all charges against him and urged his supporters to continue protests in the face of the government crackdown.
"I totally believe these are bogus charges," Emre Can Erdogdu, a university student in Istanbul who attended street protests Sunday night, told the New York Times. "We entirely lost our trust in the government."
Erdogdu said he feared for the future of Turkey. "A person who could be the next president is now out of politics. It is not just about Istanbul. It is about all of Turkey."
A Turkish court jailed Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, President Erdogan's main rival, pending trial on corruption charges triggering the country's biggest protests in over a decade https://t.co/7P7PwrjZsi pic.twitter.com/e05k1sERXI
— Reuters (@Reuters) March 24, 2025
Özgür Özel, the CHP chair, said the imprisonment would not dampen the party's prospects, but only further ignite the growing opposition. "Starting from tomorrow morning," he said from Istanbul on Sunday evening, "we will initiate a great struggle by harnessing the power of organization and using this strength for the good sake of all of us."
He called for "all democrats and all those who care the future of Turkey" to come out in sustained protest.
According to the Hürriyet Daily News, over 1,100 people have been arrested since mass protests erupted last week over İmamoğlu's initial arrest. Criticism only grew the court on Sunday stripped him of his position and sent him to prison.
"By arresting his main political rival," said human rights advocate and scholar Kenneth Roth, "Erdoğan shows he is too fearful of losing to risk even a managed election."
Roth said Erdoğan, an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, would rather "opt for an electoral charade" than hold free and fair elections.
Turkish protesters demand "freedom" as police fire rubber bullets and pepper spray at crowds rallying for detained Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.https://t.co/r7gKpPg0YJ pic.twitter.com/HqAL3Z4kay
— Sky News (@SkyNews) March 24, 2025
With Turkish officials set to visit the United States this week to visit with U.S. counterparts, world's richest man Elon Musk, who has taken a seat as a top advisor to Trump, is under fire for blocking accounts of opposition figures in Turkey on his social media platform X.
As Politico reported over the weekend:
The majority of the suspended accounts were "university-associated activist accounts, basically sharing protest information, locations for students to go," Yusuf Can, coordinator and analyst at the Wilson Center's Middle East Program, told POLITICO. Many of these accounts are "grassroots activists" with their followings in the low tens of thousands, said Can.
Some accounts appear to be suspended only in Turkey and not in the rest of the world. Activist Ömer Faruk Aslan created a second account to avoid censorship. "Yesterday, my account was blocked by a court order because the tweets exceeded 6 million views," he posted.
Last week, Human Rights Watch said that İmamoğlu's arrest, as well as the targeting of other opposition figures, was politically motivated and an assault on the rule of law.
"Ekrem İmamoğlu and others detained should be released from police custody immediately," said Hugh Williamson, Europe and Central Asia director for the group. "The Erdoğan presidency should ensure that the results of the Istanbul municipal elections are respected and that the criminal justice system is not weaponized for political ends."