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The Seven Deadly Deficits
When president George W. Bush assumed office, most of those disgruntled about the stolen election contented themselves with this thought: Given our system of checks and balances, given the gridlock in Washington, how much damage could be done? Now we know: far more than the worst pessimists could have imagined. From the war in Iraq to the collapse of the credit markets, the financial losses are difficult to fathom. And behind those losses lie even greater missed opportunities.
Put it all together-the money squandered on the war, the money wasted on a housing pyramid scheme that impoverished the nation and enriched a few, and the money lost because of the recession-and the gap between what we could have produced and what we did produce will easily exceed $1.5 trillion. Think what that kind of money could have done to provide health care for the uninsured, to improve our education system, to build green technology...The list is endless.
And the true cost of our missed opportunities is likely even greater. Consider the war: First there are the funds directly allocated to it by the government (an estimated $12 billion a month even according to the misleading accounting of the Bush administration). Much larger, as the Kennedy School's Linda Bilmes and I documented in The Three Trillion Dollar War, are the indirect costs: the salaries not earned by those wounded or killed, the economic activity displaced (from, say, spending on American hospitals to spending on Nepalese security contractors). Such social and macroeconomic factors may account for more than $2 trillion of the war's overall cost.
There is a silver lining in these clouds. If we can pull ourselves out of the malaise, if we can think more carefully and less ideologically about how to make our economy stronger and our society better, perhaps we can make progress in addressing some of our long-festering problems. As a road map for where to begin, consider the seven major shortfalls the Bush administration leaves behind.
the values deficit: One of the strengths of America is its diversity, and there has always been a diversity of views even on our fundamental principles-innocent until proven guilty, the writ of habeas corpus, the rule of law. But (so we thought) those who disagreed with these principles were a fringe, easily ignored. We have now learned that the fringe is not so small and includes among its numbers the president and leaders of his party. And this division of values could not have come at a worse time. The realization that we may have less in common than we thought may make it difficult to solve the problems we must address together.
the climate deficit: With the help of corporate accomplices such as ExxonMobil, Bush tried to persuade Americans that global warming was fiction. It is not, and even the administration has finally admitted as much. But for eight years we did nothing, and America pollutes more than ever-a delay that will cost us dearly.
the equality deficit: In the past, even if those at the bottom saw little or any of the gains from economic expansion, life was viewed as a fair lottery. Up-by-your-bootstraps stories are part of America's sense of identity. But today, the promise of the Horatio Alger legend rings false. Upward mobility is becoming increasingly difficult. Growing divisions in income and wealth are reinforced by a tax code that rewards those who have lucked out in the globalization sweepstakes. As that realization sinks in, it will be even harder to find common cause.
the accountability deficit: The moguls of American finance justified their astronomical compensation by their ingenuity and the great benefits it supposedly bestowed upon the country. Now the emperors have been shown to have no clothes. They did not know how to manage risk; rather, their actions exacerbated risk. Capital was not well allocated; hundreds of billions were misspent, a level of inefficiency much greater than what people typically attribute to government. Yet the moguls walked away with hundreds of millions of dollars while taxpayers, workers, and the economy as a whole were stuck with the tab.
the trade deficit: Over the past decade, the nation has been borrowing massively abroad-some $739 billion in 2007 alone. And it is easy to see why: With the government running up huge debts, and with Americans' household savings close to zero, there was nowhere else to turn. America has been living on borrowed money and borrowed time, and the day of reckoning had to come. We used to lecture others about what good economic policy meant. Now they are laughing behind our backs, and even occasionally lecturing us. We've had to go begging to the sovereign wealth funds-the excess wealth that other governments have accumulated and can invest outside their borders. We recoil at the idea of our government running a bank. But we seem to accept the notion of foreign governments owning a major share in some of our iconic American banks, institutions that are critical to our economy. (So critical, in fact, we have given the Treasury a blank check to bail them out.)
the budget deficit: Thanks in part to runaway military spending, in just eight short years our national debt has increased by two-thirds, from $5.7 trillion to more than $9.5 trillion. But as dramatic as they are, these numbers vastly understate the problem. Many of the Iraq War bills, including the cost of benefits for injured veterans, have not yet come due, and they could amount to more than $600 billion. The federal deficit this year is likely to add up to another half-trillion to the nation's debt. And all this is before the Social Security and Medicare bills for the baby boomers.
the investment deficit: Government accounting is different from that in the private sector. A firm that borrows to make a good investment will see its balance sheet improved, and its leaders will be applauded. But in the public sector there is no balance sheet, and as a result, too many of us focus too narrowly on the deficit. In reality, wise government investments yield returns far higher than the interest rate the government pays on its debt; in the long run, investments help reduce deficits. To cut them is penny-wise but pound-foolish, as New Orleans' levees and Minneapolis' bridge attest.
There are two hypotheses (besides simple incompetence) about why Republicans paid so little attention to the growing budget shortfall. The first is that they simply trusted in supply-side economics-believing that, somehow, the economy would grow so much better with lower taxes that deficits would be ephemeral. That notion has been shown for the fantasy that it is.
The second theory is that by letting the budget deficit balloon, Bush and his allies hoped to force a reduction in the size of government. Indeed, the fiscal situation has grown so scary that many responsible Democrats are now playing into the hands of these "starve the beast" Republicans and calling for drastic cuts in expenditures. But with Democrats worrying about appearing soft on security-and therefore treating the military budget as sacrosanct-it is hard to cut spending without slashing the investments most important to solving the crisis.
The most urgent task for the new president will be to restore the economy's strength. Given our national debt, it is especially important to do that in ways that maximize the bang for our buck and help address at least one of the major deficits. Tax cuts work-if they work-by increasing consumption, but America's problem is that we have been on a consumption binge; prolonging that binge just postpones dealing with the deeper problems. States and localities are about to face real budget constraints as tax revenues plummet, and unless something is done, they will be forced to cut spending, deepening the downturn. At the federal level, we need to spend more, not less. The economy must be reconfigured to reflect new realities-including global warming. We will need fast trains and more efficient power plants. Such expenditures stimulate the economy while providing the foundation for long-term sustainable growth.
There are only two ways to pay for these investments: raise taxes or cut other expenditures. Upper-income Americans can well afford to pay higher taxes, and many countries in Europe have succeeded because of, not despite, high tax rates-rates that have enabled them to invest and compete in a globalized world.
But needless to say, there will be resistance to tax increases, and so the focus will shift to cuts. But our social expenditures are already so bare-bones that there is little to spare. Indeed, we stand out among the advanced industrial countries in the inadequacy of social protection. The problems with America's health care system, for example, are well recognized; fixing them means not only greater social justice, but greater economic efficiency. (Healthier workers are more productive workers.) That leaves but one major area in which to cut-defense. We account for half of all the world's military expenditures, with 42 percent of tax dollars spent directly or indirectly on defense. Even nonwar military expenditures have soared. With so much money spent on weapons that don't work against enemies that don't exist, there is ample room to increase security at the same time that we cut defense expenditures.
The good news about today's bad economic news is that we're being forced to curb our material consumption. If we do it in the right way, it will help limit global warming and may even force the realization that a truly high standard of living might entail more leisure, not just more material goods.
The laws of nature and the laws of economics are unforgiving. We can abuse our environment, but only for a while. We can spend beyond our means, but only for a while. We can free ride on the investments made in the past, but only for a while. Even the richest country in the world ignores the laws of nature and the laws of economics at its peril.
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23 Comments so far
Show AllAs I read pieces like this one, the authors often call on that etherial unit known as "we" to do this or do that. I always pause to wonder just who "we" is? Our government? Our politicians? Our institutions? Our gods? Who is "we"?
Then, I read the following, "The good news about today's bad economic news is that we're being forced to curb our material consumption. If we do it in the right way, it will help limit global warming and may even force the realization that a truly high standard of living might entail more leisure, not just more material goods.", and I realize, "we" is us. You and me. If you and I can curb our material consumption, we can all have a better life. There are no "others" who can do this.
We.
"All Nature's difference keeps all Nature's peace." Alexander Pope
Stiglitz misses America’s greatest deficit; The Truth Deficit.
America has arrived at the current dire situation because the information that the great majority of Americans use to base their decisions on is complete and unmitigated Bullshit.
President Bush and his advisers told in excess of five hundred LIES to justify America’s attack of Iraq.
America’s corporate owned media is also a purveyor of Bullshit, carefully filtering the information it disseminates for the benefit of the corporate elite.
The deregulated finance industry shrouded its Ponzi scheme mentality as financial derivatives, CDO’s and other hocus pocus BS while operating at margins approaching 100 to 1. Ponzi would be a piker in today’s financial industry.
America’s corporations have spent many billions of dollars on advertising convincing American soccer moms that they needed to drive massive SUV’s for the safety of their children.
TV preachers and their local franchises in the many mega-churches that dot suburbia have convinced millions of Americans that the path to salvation runs through their bank accounts.
Whether it’s the Federal prosecutors that try medical marijuana distributors as big time drug dealers or the prosecutors in Florida that gave Rush Limbaugh a slap on the wrist for shoving so many drugs down his throat they fried his sense of hearing any sense of rationality in drug policy is shouted down.
Until America’s flow of information rewards truth and calls bullshit on lies the chances of fixing the many problems Stiglitz lists is close to zero.
The Depression will curb our spending without any "good for society reasons"... the money is gone and banks are hoarding Cash because they can add... The time has finally come now that few believe you can get out of debt by massively increasing your Debt...
The media and politicians are still selling us the lie that you can create something out of nothing and now it is even minus nothing.
So long as Americans are struggling to make ends meet, we will see no progress. The only way Americans will become engaged is when they no longer have a way to make ends meet - when wide-spread poverty and misery are a reality and not just a scare-tactic.
The same problem arises with 'charity' - so long as people receive 'charity' - food pantries and welfare - they will not be up in arms and in the streets protesting. This is why the US did not adopt social policies like Western Europe after WWII - too many people were NOT in dire circumstances, and the temporary measures of the post-war era made the future seem limitless.
Now the 'New Deal' doesn't look like such a good deal anymore. Instead of forging a new social contract, Americans settled for short-term hand-outs. Now we're paying for our negligence - and will continue to pay (and live in fear of losing jobs, homes, healthcare, cars, etc) until it becomes simply impossible to survive with the existing system. This is how fascism works - predators WANT their prey to be too scared to protest and do anything meaningful.
As the Baby-Boom generation retires - the generation that had free education, high-paying jobs, and cheap healthcare - there is no one left that remembers how government is supposed to work: for the average person, and not just corporations or the wealthy. Europeans learned that lesson long ago - Americans have yet to really face the wall. But the day of reckoning is coming - and none too soon. But will Americans rise to the occaision? Or just find somebody else to blame for all their mistakes - including widespread publlic apathy when it comes to their civic duties? Maybe it takes a devastating war on the home-front to force people to get their priorities straight.
Commonreader
I'd like to see Stigliz on Obama's economic team. Why is he not part of it?
I am distressed that Robert Rubin (who made bad economic decisions at Treasury and Citigroup) and Larry Summers (who made bad economic decisions at Treasury and Harvard) are part of the Obama team.
Obama said he wants people on his team who disagree with him. Unfortunately, they are all right wingers who will pull him ever further to the right until he loses the house and senate in 2010 and loses the presidency in 2012.
"TRIANGULATING" WITH THE REPUBLICANS LEADS TO REPUBLICAN VICTORY.
Didn't we learn that from the Clinton - Gingrich years? Is the stranglehold of the corporate establishment so strong that Obama can't even THINK past it?
It is up to us to ORGANIZE to help him think past his billionaire advisors; for a pre-Reagan maximum tax rate of 70%, for example, and real capital gains and inheritance taxes. There is no guarantee that our organizing will move Obama, but if it doesn't, at least we will be better prepared for the real economic collapse.
Raising taxes on the rich is necessary. However, a 70% rate in today's global economy will no longer work. Money and profits will simply move to other countries. With inheritance taxes, for instance, raise the tax enough that the rich pay a substantial amount, but keep it reasonable so that only the true misers leave the US, and good ridance.
Rubin and Summers made great decisions!...if you believe in elite domination of the lower classes.
We have to stop putting stock in the totally false belief that people in government are working for us! Think of them, even Obama, as working for the moneyed interests who are making class war against the rest of us, and suddenly all of their mistakes start to look like solid class-war strategy.
The reason Stiglitz isn't on Obama's team is the same...he plays for the little guys.
The truth is brittle. Who can ever trust Americans and their lie based government?
Maybe, maybe long after Bush and Congress are brought to justice sprigs of trust might sprout.
Between Madoff and Chertoff I'll swareoff investing in this America.
free2bee
At this writing the shoe-thrower is probably near death, if not already dead. We will never know. But he had the guts to do what Any American should have done long ago. We, including myself, have been handed so much bull that we think it a sin to be critical of our PRESIDENT! When the hell will we wake up??
The neocon revisionist history machine is rapidly revising the past thirty years of history to tranfer blame for the financial meltdown away from deregulation, lax enforcement and bad monetary policy, and pin it on low income and minority people.
Contrary to mountains of evidence to the contrary, neocons contend that legislation enacted during the Carter and Clinton Administrations forced banks to loan money to low income and minority people and that was THE cause of the financial meltdown.
Quite true, however I think (and hope!) that most Americans can understand that poor people are not the cause of this global meltdown. Certainly thinking Americans see through this idiocy.
But now that Obama is gonna be our next president and the Democrats have stronger control of both Chambers of Congress, they'll have to curb those SEVEN DEADLY DEFICITS or get booted out. Or will they? As of Jan 20, 2009, we won't have Bush or much of the GOP to kick around anymore so the Democrats will have no excuse for pandering. Either curb those deficits or face the voters in a firing squad, PERIOD !
I agree with Madhoosier about the truth deficit, and consider Stiglitz's comments about the values deficit to be his most insightful.
Yes, in a nation as diverse as America there always has been some diversity of opinion, even on fundamental issues. Stiglitz cites the principles innocent until proved guilty, habeas corpus, and the rule of law. I personally would add abhorrence of torture (cruel and unusual punishment), respect for a right to personal privacy, and separation of church and state to that list.
Stiglitz then notes "But (so we thought) those who disagreed with those principles were a fringe, easily ignored. We have now learned that the fringe is not so small and includes among its numbers the president and leaders of his party. And this division of values could not have come at a worse time. The realization that we may have less in common than we thought may make it difficult to solve the problems we must address together."
This last sentence wins a gold star, if not a Nobel, for understatement.
What I see as the moving force in play is that what once indeed was an easily ignored fringe (say, like the John Birch Society) never before was backed by a billion dollar institutional media network promoting its outside-the-mainstream sentiments, 24/7, as an ideological matter over which reasonable minds could differ. All that really happened was this fringe amassed together enough money and power sufficient to seize control of the federal government - its treasury, military forces, and intelligence establishment included - for six years, basically unchecked. And what you see is what you get.
Isn't it amazing how, simultaneous with the Bush regime's departure, the powers-that-be inside the DC beltway and in the mainstream media are all suddenly extolling the virtues of pragmatism, compromise and bi-partisanship, while condemning the evils of ideological thinking in all its forms?
Bill from Saginaw
Madhoosier,
Bullshit de jour.
Bill from Saginaw asks; “Isn't it amazing how, simultaneous with the Bush regime's departure, the powers-that-be inside the DC beltway and in the mainstream media are all suddenly extolling the virtues of pragmatism, compromise and bi-partisanship, while condemning the evils of ideological thinking in all its forms?”
One from Column A and One from Column B. Yup the MSM and the DC talking heads have the intellectual integrity of a restaurant menu, picking and choosing whatever tastes good today.
Stiglitz, in his “ACCOUNTABILITY DEFICIT” observes; “The moguls of American finance justified their astronomical compensation by their ingenuity and the great benefits it supposedly bestowed upon the country. Now the emperors have been shown to have no clothes.”
Yes, the financial industry has shot the hell out of their credibility, now its turn for the talking heads and the MSM to be gutted. I hope that Obama will use his first State of the Union speech to, A; tell the American people how much worse the current economic situation is than he thought it was just a couple of months ago.
And B: Challenge the MSM on their biases. As America sank down the tubes over the last eight years the MSM has acted as the world’s biggest enablers, jacking up the water pressure as Bush and Co. intentionally flushed the middle class and working poor down the crapper.
If Obama doesn’t get up in the face of the MSM and call them out early on his presidency is doomed from day one.
I had suggested creating a "Blue Ribbon Panel" of experts headed by Joseph Stiglitz to investigate the "Bail Out" and make recommendations for change.
The fact is, nobody in the "Political Elite" want change. "Blue Dog Democrats" are already forming an independent caucus within the U.S. Senate. In other words, right wing conservatives are getting ready to continue their alliance with "Blue Dogs".
Senator Feinstein has aleady been given a plum, especially for Israel. Yet, no one knows that her husband, Richard Blum, had contracts with the Department of Defense for 750 million dollars and 790 million dollars. Plus, Mr Blum and Feienstein's legal advisor, Mr. Klein, got another contract for shipping cargo by air to the Middle East. I would say "She is focused on her own agenda and could care less about the American People."
After reading about the five Israeli Mossad agents that were celebrating the attacks of 9/11, on the New Jersey side of the Hudson, and held by the FBI for several days, ....(Read: "voxfux.com/features/stranger_than_fiction.htm)
I could understand Senator Feinstein's positions.
Then, I watched "Zeitgeist-Part 3" and decided, "Yup, this is all a scam on the people of the United States." Naomi Klein is right, "Shock and Awe" is employed in natural and man made disasters.....Wall Street and the "Bail Out" is nothing more than shock and awe government.
No one has heard about "Club Bilderberg" in the United States. But, some of those invited to the 2008 Meeting were: Kathleen Sibelius, Laurence Summers, Ben S. Bernanke, Thomas A Daschle, Timothy Geithner, Richard Holbrooke, Henry Paulson, Paul Wolfowitz, Richard Perle et al. I will add one name that many of you need to know: Peter Thiel, he was the venture capitalist for "Facebook" and he is one of the 3 members on the Board of Directors of "Facebook". (Talk about contracted legal spying!!)
Do any of those names look familiar?
Pragmatism? Not Continuity? Yes
Trying to be bipartisan with fascists is political suicide.
I have to agree.
"Even the richest country in the world ignores the laws of nature and the laws of economics at its peril."
This statement can be misleading:
The free marketeering Friedmanites think they are in sync with the laws of nature. Contrary to popular thought however, they do not follow Darwin's survival of the fittest. In nature no organism is able to hoard more resources than it can personally defend. Money and economics have allowed the unfit 1% of the human organism to hoard more resources than 99% of the rest. And that is against the laws of nature.
The question we should be asking is why qualified people like Stiglitz or Fred Magdoff are not invited to be on the Obama team? We need to make sure those ears of his hear some progressive analysis and answers!
The Jaded Prole
It's too bad Obama didn't choose Stiglitz to be part of his economic circle of advisors.
Go to the Global Investment Watch blog to read a good article about how to interpret our current economic crisis and why we should use this time as a chance to protect future generations from similar irrational behavior by rejecting outdated economic theories which have dominated our markets for the past fifty years...
http://globalinvestmentwatch.com/2008/12/16/why-to-reject-economic-nihilism/
This article reminds me of former German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt's remark in the 1980s that he grew weary of teaching economics to American presidents.