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Under Pressure from Hawks, Obama Tacks to the Right
WASHINGTON - In the face of
mounting pressure from hawks in Washington and the continued threat of
military action from Israel, the Barack Obama Administration has been
taking a harder line in its latest pronouncements about Iran.
Recent media reports
have suggested that the administration is leaning toward an
end-of-September deadline for Tehran to respond to U.S. diplomatic
outreach concerning its nuclear programme, at which point it will
consider stepping up sanctions against the Iranian energy sector.
This
course would cut against the advise of a growing number of Iran
analysts, who have cautioned both that the Tehran regime is in no
position to negotiate at the moment and that sanctions are likely only
to solidify the power of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
But the administration is facing a great
deal of pressure to move quickly to sanctions from congressional hawks
- backed by hardline organisations within the so-called "Israel lobby"
- who have been pushing for a tougher line against Tehran since well
before the Jun. 12 elections that triggered Iran's current political
crisis.
While it remains too early to tell whether the Obama
Administration intends to follow through on threats of sanctions before
the end of the year, recent statements by administration officials have
sounded increasingly impatient with the rate of diplomatic progress.
"We
need to take stock in September," Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
said Sunday in a television interview with CNN's Fareed Zakaria. "If
there is a response, it needs to be on a fast track. We're not going to
keep the window open forever."
Clinton also stated that the U.S.
is working with allies to prepare "a very robust set of sanctions that
we can get the international community to sign off on" in case
engagement does not bear fruit.
The administration has suggested
that a Sep. 30 U.N. General Assembly meeting will be the deadline for a
diplomatic response from Tehran.
This end-of-September deadline
is itself a testament to the political pressure the administration has
come under from the right.
When Obama took office in January, he
was reluctant to set an explicit timetable for engagement. During
meetings with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in May, Obama
eventually suggested that the administration would perform a
"reassessment" of progress at the end of the year.
The turmoil
that followed Iran's June elections has led some analysts to propose a
pause in the engagement schedule - since Iran remains preoccupied with
its internal crisis and its political situation fluctuates on a daily
basis.
Instead, the engagement timetable seems, if anything, to
have been expedited. While the administration has retained the
end-of-year timetable for tangible diplomatic progress, the
end-of-September deadline for a response is comparatively new.
Few
expect Iran to be able to resolve its internal turmoil by Sep. 30,
leaving open the question of how the U.S. intends to respond if the
deadline passes without a response.
Trita Parsi, president of
the National Iranian American Council (NIAC), is among those calling
for a "tactical pause" in engagement. Parsi cautioned Monday on the
Huffington Post that, "the biggest mistake the U.S. can commit is to
begin setting deadlines that no one - including the U.S. itself -
believes can be held up."
Hawks in Congress, however, have other
ideas. Congressional leaders plan to push new anti-Iran sanctions
legislation in September - barring any major change in the diplomatic
situation.
The most prominent piece of sanctions legislation is
the Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act (IRPSA), which would impose
penalties on firms exporting refined petroleum products to Iran. The
IRPSA is co-sponsored by more than half the members of Congress.
Hardline
"Israel lobby" organisations such as the American Israel Public Affairs
Committee (AIPAC) and the Conference of Presidents of Major American
Jewish Organisations are planning a major September lobbying push in
support of the legislation, the Forward reported last week.
The Obama Administration has refrained from public comment on the IRPSA and other pending congressional legislation.
But,
last week, a flurry of media reports suggested that the administration
was giving increased consideration to new sanctions.
Israeli
newspaper Ha'aretz reported Jul. 31 that U.S. National Security Advisor
James Jones had briefed Israeli officials on U.S. plans for new
sanctions. Similar reports in The New York Times and The Guardian soon
followed.
However, these reports relied primarily on anonymous
Israeli and European officials - leaving open the possibility that
outside actors were leaking information in order to try to box the
administration in to new sanctions.
In any case, all signs
suggest that if the administration turns to sanctions, it will aim for
multilateral sanctions in conjunction with allies rather than the
unilateral sanctions being pushed by Congress.
"The coverage of
the Obama Administration's stance on sanctions has been pretty
disingenuous," NIAC Acting Legislative Director Patrick Disney told
IPS. "I believe the administration has communicated that if Iran does
not accept by the end of September the invitation to begin talks, then
the U.S. will begin the process for another round of multilateral
sanctions."
"[But] there is no evidence that the administration
has communicated anything remotely supportive of the [petroleum]
sanctions legislation to Congress," Disney added.
Proponents of
petroleum sanctions claim that they will weaken the regime by
exploiting its reliance on refined petroleum imports. Despite its
natural oil reserves, Iran lacks refining capacity and must import
between 25 and 40 percent of its refined petroleum.
Even some
hawks concede, however, that unilateral sanctions measures such as the
IRPSA would be of limited utility in depriving Iran of refined
petroleum. Multilateral sanctions would be more effective - however
most analysts are sceptical that Russia and China would sign on to such
measures.
But, a growing number of commentators have suggested
that even effective petroleum sanctions would be self-defeating. They
argue that the brunt of these sanctions would be borne by innocent
Iranian civilians rather than the regime itself, and that they would be
likely to solidify the regime's power by allowing it to rally against a
common enemy.
Sanctions opponents point to the example of Iraq,
where strict sanctions imposed from 1990 to 2003 were blamed for
hundreds of thousands of civilian deaths - without weakening the Saddam
Hussein regime's hold on power.
"[T]here is absolutely not a
shred of evidence that any major or even minor opposition leader - from
[presidential candidate] Mir Hossein Moussavi to [presidential
candidate] Mehdi Karrubi to [former president] Mohammad Khatami, or any
of their related political organs or legitimate representatives - has
ever uttered a word that could possibly be interpreted as calling for
or endorsing any sort of economic sanction against Iran," wrote
Columbia University professor Hamid Dabashi on CNN.com.
"As in
the Iraqi case, imposition of economic sanctions on Iran will have
catastrophic humanitarian consequences, while it will even more enrich
and empower such critical components of the security and military
apparatus as the Pasdaran and the Basij," Dabashi wrote.
On
Tuesday, Nobel Prize-winning Iranian human rights lawyer Shirin Ebadi
warned against sanctions because of the harm they would do to the
Iranian people, Reuters reported.
Beyond the argument over
sanctions looms the threat of Israeli military force. Israel has
repeatedly signalled that it would consider a military strike against
Iranian nuclear facilities if it is not satisfied with the progress of
negotiations.
Some observers suggest that the Obama
Administration's increased talk of multilateral sanctions is primarily
intended to placate Israel and its hawkish allies in the U.S., thereby
giving the administration some breathing room to work on a deal.
But
these same hawks are determined to force the administration to follow
through on its talk of sanctions, and matters seem likely to come to a
head in the days leading up to the Sep. 30 deadline.
- Posted in



9 Comments so far
Show All"As in the Iraqi case, imposition of economic sanctions on Iran will have catastrophic humanitarian consequences, ..."
So? Another half-million dead kids will also be "worth it." Besides, those new bunker busters are nearly ready for use and the sanctions are necessary as a preliminary. Once again, you see, all the other options have been tried and so "pre-emptive war" is all that's left.
Only Israel is permitted to possess any nuclear deterence capability in the region, or even the theoretical capacity for its potential development, regardless of any verified rights under the non-proliferation treaty that Iran signed and Israel didn't.
As for the suggestion that Obama is "tacking" to the right only reluctantly under pressure, gimme a break! He's been Israel's bitch from the outset.
So, what else is new? It's almost as if Emanuel was the president, isn't it?
A long time ago, in a galaxy far away in my early memory, nations sat down and really negotiated to settle their differences. The pros and cons were discussed and eventually a compromise was usually worked out. This occurred when the United States still had a Constitution and some understanding of the rule of law.
Now, the United States does not make a move or a decision without getting permission from its masters in Israel, or instructions from such as Lieberman, the Senator from Israel.
What constitutes negotiation today? Any nation that incurs the oil greed or wrath of the United States/Israeli Empire gets told, "You will do what we say or we will starve you out until you do. If you do not obey us then, you shall be bombed and probably nuked, so just sit down at this table and sign here, sign here, initial here and here. Congratulations, we now own you, body, soul and natural resources."
It makes absolutely no difference what We the People think or want. The greedy, fascist, Oligarchy that owns this country and most of the world will be satisfied with no less than world domination; ownership of all the property, all the money, and several billion slaves to do their bidding or starve.
The Obamanation is just a continuation of the policies of greed and intimidation in place since the coup when Kennedy was assassinated. We've been on a downhill slide ever since and we are about to drop off the edge of the cliff into the abyss, with 200 million people along for the ride.
Remember Iraq...
The State department had to weaken the Iraqis with a ten year embargo before they were ready to be invaded and occupied... I don't think the Pentagon will need to wait that long this time, what with their predator drones and forward operating bases on three of their borders...
I am still waiting for the missing nuke from the Louisiana air force base to surface somewhere in the middle east to justify the transition from sanctions to invasion...
I hope I am wrong about this...
I don't think you are. That missing nuclear armed cruise missile is another black op in the making. Either we'll get nailed and somebody will get accused of a sneak attack and we'll annihilate them, or as you say, they'll deploy it in the ME and blame Iran or the enemy of the moment.
Iraq had no airforce, no antiaircraft missiles, no radar. We had carefully overflown Iraq for years. Every time somebody turned on a tracking radar, we hit it with a missile. Our embargo had interdicted all spare parts for their armor, etc., so they were sitting ducks when we went in with our "shock and awe."
Iran is a first class military nation. They have state of the art defenses. They have not attacked anyone for a couple of hundred years, but they are very good at defending themselves. If we go in, we are not going to be facing Afghan tribal warriors with homemade rifles. We're going to be facing an airforce, missile defenses, and an excellent army with modern armor and artillery.
Sure, we can turn Iran into slag in about fifteen minutes, at the cost of killing most of the world's population from radiation. We're already working on that on a smaller scale by spreading DU around the world.
The cost of this proposed obscenity is going to be horrendous all around unless we get an attack of sanity and commit peace.
As with most foreign and domestic issues, America's reaction to Iran's purported nuclear program has less to do with lofty pronouncements about national security and terrorism and more to do with United States politics. Democrats wish to retain the favor of wealthy Jewish donors and supporters so they readily agree to whatever conservatives in Israel put on the table. The armed forces and the arms industry add their voices to silence any opposing voices questioning the soundness of aggressive foreign policy initiatives.
In the United States, to figure out foreign policy, it is only necessary to ask one question: Where is the money going? Since political power equals money, it is easy to understand why our government undertakes policies doomed to fail, because in the long run they don't fail at all. No matter if wars sputter, innocent people die, and the reputation of America is once again shattered, the money keeps on flowing to the powerful from the pockets of conservative Jewish businessmen and bankers, from the arms industry, and--eventually--from the oil rigs of Iran.
"Under pressure?" Why don't we be more honest and just say that this is Obama's thing? He's the president, he's making decisions. Maybe he isn't 'tacking to the right,' maybe you're just figuring out where he was all along.
I miss "Walk softly, but carry a big stick."
Now we have the stick-wielders stomping around and mashing everything under their hob-nailed brogans.
As a sailor... Tacking implies sailing INTO the wind...
As far as I can tell... Obama has shown little to no effort in going against the prevailing wind...
At the most... He is on a broad reach... Gaining no ground...
At the worst... He has hoisted the spinnaker and the jolly roger flag while running with the wind...