Thanks to Temple University math professor John Allen Paulos, it can be demonstrated mathematically why the threats to our civil liberties should be of more concern than terrorism threats.
Paulos’ approach to terrorism draws on probability theory and a bit of common sense, specifically, on “the obvious fact that the vast majority of people of every ethnicity are not terrorists.”
Imagine a near-perfect, information gathering and interpretation system that could identify terrorists and stop them before the act of terrorism is committed. Because no system is perfect, Paulos’ system is assumed to be 99 percent accurate. And, of course, for this near-perfect terrorist fly-trap to be really effective it would also have to be able to correctly identify nonterrorists 99 percent of the time.
Such a system would only catch terrorists, right?
“Well, no,” Paulos wrote in an analysis for the LA Times back in 2003. It bears repeating, as the terrorism-centered presidential campaign season heats up, brought to you by Fear Inc.
Paulos applies the near perfect data-mining numbers to a country about the size of America - a nation of 300 million in which 1,000 “future terrorists” lurk among the citizenry.
With a 99 percent detection rate, the system will identify 990 of 1,000 future terrorists. Pretty good.
But the flip side is ugly. In a nation of 300 million (minus 1,000 future terrorists) there are 299,999,000 nonterrorists. If the system is 99 percent accurate, one percent will be improperly detained as an “enemy-combatant.” How much is one percent of 299,999,000? Just under 3 million. That’s 3 million innocent Americans for every 990 Jose Padillas.
Just to bring it home, we’re talking about 3,000 times more innocent Americans being caught in the dragnet than the number of guilty ones! That alone ought to have each one of us thinking real hard about political priorities.
Despite my miniscule efforts and those of others in the dreaded “mainstream media,” the national media have fallen short on providing context in the “war on terror,” aiding and abetting America’s foreign policy cataracts problem.
How often do you see reports of terrorism with context that points out the relative rarity of actually being a victim of terrorism? And how many articles do you see that call into question the alarmism of say, Gen. Richard Myers, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who said that if terrorists were able to kill 10,000 Americans in an attack, they would “do away with our way of life.”
As John Mueller wrote in a recent of issue of The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, it’s the subtext of this kind of fear-mongering that’s most interesting. “These hysterical warnings suggest: the ‘existential’ threat comes not from what the terrorists would do to us, but what we would do to ourselves in response.”
Mueller also refers to the 1999 Gilmore Commission, a government-funded advisory group that assessed domestic response to WMD terrorism.
The group “pressed a point it considered ‘self-evident,’ but one that nonetheless required ‘reiteration’ because of the ‘rhetoric and hyperbole’ surrounding the issue: Although a terrorist attack with a weapon of mass destruction could be ‘serious and potentially catastrophic,’ it is ‘highly unlikely that it could ever completely undermine the national security, much less threaten the survival, of the United States.’ To hold otherwise ‘risks surrendering to the fear and intimidation that is precisely the terrorist’s stock in trade’.”
Over the weekend, GOP Sen. John Warner, who wants U.S. troops to start coming home from Iraq by Christmas, said he may support Democratic legislation ordering withdrawals if President Bush refuses to set a return timetable soon.
And, then fear-mongering followed. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, who is also a member of Senate Armed Services Committee, responded by saying: “I don’t think it’s in our best interest to put so much pressure on the new Iraqi government that it absolutely collapses. We don’t want to allow that to happen, because it would make us less safe here at home.”
Fear isn’t just the “stock in trade” of terrorists. It’s a booming industry in America. And if we continue to trade true freedom for security, in fear, the “war on terror” will defeat us from the inside.
Sean Gonsalves is a Cape Cod Times assistant news editor and syndicated columnist. He can be reached at sgonsalves@capecodonline.com.
The “threat of terrorism” is half sham and half scam.
How many Americans are alleged to have been killed by “terrorists” in the last, say, 10 years?
Just for the sake of argument let’s take a high figure and say 5000. And that’s assuming the reports are true, which is highly doubtful.
We lose about 10 times that many people EVERY year in MVA’s or about 500,000 in the last decade.
Of course, it should be noted, we have no idea of who carried out the WTC attacks or why, thanks to the complete mishandling of that “investigation.” Any rookie cop could’ve done better. At least he’d know to secure the crime scene.
All we know for sure is that the “official story” — as usual — is a lie.
Liberty & Justice
SJ
www.spartacusjones.com
I want to say thank you for this, and I wish everyone in the US would read it. On Common Dreams, we can dream.
Good work. Ditto.
I would say that extreme fear or extreme indifference are both to be avoided. The American people, for the most part, aren’t changing the way they live their lives because of a fear of terrorism. Maybe a little more aware, a little more wary, but that is about it. Most of them are out trying to make a living or chasing kids. We cannot let this fear work to subvert our civil liberties. And we cannot cover all contingencies for a terror attack by upping security.
On the other hand, the likelihood of death or injury from a terrorist attack may be small relative to the danger of dying from heart disease- but that misses the point. Palestinians are far more likely to die of natural causes or accidents too; does that mean they shouldn’t worry because ONLY three thousand out of 5 million have been killed in the fighting with Israel? Or the same with Israel, should they let down their guard because ONLY a few hundred have been blown up on the bus, or at a restuarant? Or in this country, how many people have actually died from bird flu, guns in school, hole in the ozone, racial attacks, or other disasters de jour. Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be concerned.
A large scale terrorist attack in this country could kill thousands. Will that be the end of the county?-No. But is it a cause for being vigilant? You bet, as long as it doesn’t go overboard. People are not numbers, a thousand preventable deaths are still a thousand preventable deaths- even in a country of 300 million.
Cost of Drowning By the Numbers:
The following statistics demonstrate the need for action:
#1 Cause of death for children under five.
#2nd Leading cause of injury-related death among children under the age of 15.
2.6 Number of times African-American children age 5-19 are more likely to drown than white children in the same age group.
9 Number of people who drown in the United States every day.
70 Percent of all preschoolers who drown who are in the care of one or both parents at the time of drowning.
5,000 Estimated number of children age 14 and under who are hospitalized annually due to near-drowning.
6,000 Approximate number of annual drownings in the United States.
LETS GET THIS TERRORISM SCAM or SHAM into REAL PERSPECTIVE…..
Bush and his cronies will spend an
ACCRUED 2.5 Trillion Dollars over 10 years kill 1 Million Iraqis, kill approx 5000 marines and wound approx 60,000 marines….
Cost Benefit Analysis would suggest economically it would be better to spend just .1% of the so called “war on terrorism” Budget [AKA “illegal cruel occupation of a sovereign country”] on swimming pool safety…..
This would save more American lives in the long run….
Ah but that would mean having common sense…..errr I forgot that’s the real federal deficit…..
Oh My GOd! There are three million terrorists in the United States!
Has anyone compared Bin Laden and Bush side by side?
Who has killed more Americans?
Who has taken away more American rights?
Who has done more damage to America?
Who is more of a danger to world security?
Recently, as I was standing in a security line, I facetiously stated “Boy, this really makes ME feel secure.”
The gentleman behind me replied, “I’m glad to finally hear someone who agrees with me. Everybody else complains about losing civil liberties. I don’t care as long as I am safe and I believe these boarding checks are for our own good.”
I was definitely at a loss for words.
Katrina victims are seen as a potential new Al Qaeda threat.
LAND OF THE FREE.
Welll, kinda free, anyway. Nobody notices the little things anyway!!!
HOME OF THE BRAVE.
It takes guts to let someone spy on you. Almost makes one laugh, now doesn’t it.
Mr. Bush, your propaganda catapult is loaded and ready, sir. (as usual, he’s targeting civilians) You may fire at will.
Peace to you and yours.
“…That’s 3 million innocent Americans for every 990 Jose Padillas.”
Er… Sean, are you not aware that Jose Padilla’s trial and conviction was a complete kangaroo-travesty of justice.
The tortured and permanently Padilla is innocent…
While FDR may have been the most famous to suffer the polio W must have been the last victim and it struck him above the neck. “We have nothing to fear, but fear itself”, or Bush, the king of fears?
The supposition is that the rulers care whether those they convicts& punishes are innocent, but they don’t: in fact, their logic is that it’s better that 99 innocents die than one who is found guilty go free. It’s even better if none of those punished are guilty — the purpose is to control by instilling fear of punishment; that way it demolishes those who hope for a just system. The lesson is “No matter what you do, we will be in charge, so you can write letters, complain & petition all you want — we have authority to jail, torture and kill, because we are in charge.”
“Them damn Terroristical CARS!!! –I think they’re the ones to watch out for.
Dang me if they don’t go about this country just terroristically terrorizin’ all the people an’ pedustrians, and killin’ and a-maimin’ all sorts of innocent Americans.
And dawgs.
And hawgs too.
- And sqirrls and all.
I say: Let’s arrust all them commie terroristical *Cars* and key them up, and throw away the lock.
That’s what Hortense and I say, -don’t we Hon…”
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Meanwhile, back in the real world, it appears that *The Terrorism Industry* has f-a-r too much to lose to let it all go just yet.
Dang, -it makes HUGE fortunes for the rich, AND successfully controls the populace into the bargain!
Best ruse since sliced bread ain’t it just? Works a treat.
-C’mon, why fix it now, it ain’t broke yet!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
[Footnote from God: “Wait till I get my hands on that evil little brat Bush. - He’ll never ‘walker’ again!”]
V for Vendetta: People should not be afraid of their governments. Governments should be afraid of their people.
Seems we forgot that under Bush.
I just happened to find this “Kennebunkport Warning” from Cindy Sheehan, Cynthia McKinney, John Kaminski, Webster Tarpley and others:
http://www.opednews.com/maxwrite/diarypage.php?did=4258
I do wish this group would submit an article on this matter to CD with more “specifics”.
There’s not going to be another terrorist attack in this country unless our elites allow it to happen.
Thanks for that link abbybwood.
But who cares! Really! Do you think any of those detained will be well heeled, connected neoconservatives? They are about as likely to serve time as that great patriot, Scooter W. Libby. The war on terror is an excuse to wage war on political opponents, dissidents and other rabble, and with the gleeful compliance of the congressional Democrats in erasing our constitutional protections and packing the Supreme Court with quasi-fascists, things look pretty grim.
Alex
Every time our military fires off a round of DU ammo, or detonates a DU bomb on a range, they fill the air with poison. “That’s terrorism”. They have fired thousand of TONS of DU on ranges here in the United States.
Since we are on the subject of fear, I suggest Bush should start a nationwide exchange students program with Iraq so that more Americans will comprehend (or even have first hand experience with) the ‘freedom’ that the Bush regime has brought to Iraq.
p.s. However, in such an event, you should expect some of the US students to be shipped back in the dead of the night, along with the undercover US solders (free transportation provided, courtesy of the Bush regime).
-BeingSpied24/7
Dear “bligh”….your comments pointing out the dangers of both “extreme fear and extreme indifference” although valid…..miss major points. Primarily the danger of “crying wolf” every bleating opportunity one gets as Bush and the Neo-Con-trolled Mass Media noise machine do. This distorts reality and makes more difficult the challenge of remaining vigilant. Terrorists aren’t coming to the streets of any US town, city…community….never…..if they did they’d absorb a whole lot of lead from our heavily armed civilian population. We got that covered. However the real fear comes from the incompetence and absolute failure of those currently in charge. If, God forbid, we absorb some devastating incident it will likely be the simple blowing up or rupturing of any one of our hundreds of heavily toxic industrial plants. They go unprotected 6 years after…….and our “leaders” keep pissing their pants over ME evildoers runnink amok in Appleton forcing girls to put scarves on, covering their heads just like the virgin Mary.
There is one point that EVERYBODY seems to have missed here…
In the so-called GWOT the US has killed at least tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of Iraqi and other civilians (plus a relatively small number of military people have also died).
Why???
To make sure that a few thousand (predicted) American civilian deaths will not occur? (And that’s only assuming that the war is having a deterrent effect on terrorism, while more likely it’s having the opposite effect.)
Even if the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were truly making Americans safer from terrorism on their own soil, the number of human lives being WASTED in order to do that is unconscionable.
That is, unless one believes that one American life is worth dozens of Iraqi lives.
Do we as americans still believe in who we thought we were? That bastion of freedom and imperfect work in progress - America - which we assumed enjoyed all our support and loyalty, at least in theory, but now find that supposed support and loyalty merely myth? Or was it that our myth of ourselves had never truly been put to the test?
What is that test? No it isn’t terrorism. That is the excuse like communism was. The real test of our belief in our freedoms and rights is the technology which permts an erosion of our rights. No one could listen in on forty thousand phone calls nor track tens of thousands backwards in time by sifting through phone, credit card purchases and even medical records etc..
Now it can be done and is done by data mining computer programs. Quietly we put in place video survailence on public streets till the sense of being observed constantly becomes ingrained. Forget privacy, citizens survail each other, listening to the neighbors not through the keyhole but via a microphone which picks up sound through walls.
Did we ever truly believe in those freedoms and rights? I know we thought we did.
That doesn’t sound like very much but when compared with the certainty of having lost freedoms courtesy of bush and hearing people say they don’t care… I realize that it meant a lot our believing each other would have their rights. In any case, not believing in those rights has certainly taught us a great truth.
You can’t be free if you don’t believe that it is really necessary. We used to believe freedom was necessary, that was taken for granted. Now only our freedom is taken for granted because we no longer believe it is necessary. Security is.
Once we believed that freedom was our security. Once we did. Now it is ‘Security is freedom’. Yeah sure it is. The land of security is the home of the afraid. Once we believed freedom protected us… well once we did… no so much at all these days.
As a last resort we could feel our fears rather than react to them.
Terrorism will go on forever, just like greed, stolen elections,
poor people, taxes, corruption, hypocrisy, politicing, etc.
Winning the “war on terrorism” is as impossible as ending any of the other items mentioned. Since our Constitution is no longer in force though, and the Bill of Rights is of no value , we should all be prepared for our GREAT LEADERS to decide we are no longer of value either, and can help fill the prisons being built now. Isn`t democracy wonderful!!
If this still was the America I knew as a youngster, you would ALL be using your real names when blogging here. Most everyone here is speaking about fear, what is there to be afraid of? This IS still America.___ I know the answer and understand. This is not America anymore,___ not for you,__ for us.
Have you noticed? The right wingers aren’t afraid, nor are the majority of Americans, perhaps because most by far, are unaware of the true state of the union. Most Americans work daily to just get by, pay their bills and taxes. By and large, the average American does not have time to see what is actually happening, and of course the media is suppressed, owned by a mere handfull of the very rich.
To me, America now reminds me of other nations that became Fascist, or Communistic, or dictatorial. First, the media was strictly controlled, then the intellectuals and teachers were often the first to be quietly rounded up___ and shut up. Certain books were taken from the schools and public libraries, soon after, many books were banned as traitorous and publically burned. After time, certain racial groups, one at a time, were at first quietly rounded up and as time passed, openly rounded up with the approval and even assistance of the rest of the masses, who now were mostly all fearful.
The majority were fearful unless they had been allowed to join or enter the divergent elitest groups, those aligned with the powers that be. Those powers who had multitudes of brain washed police, men and women who had no souls, with fearful initials such as, S-S or KGB.
The real terror I see here in America now, is the terror and fear of our own government, one which has begun to spy on the citizens, and put up surviellance camera everwhere. Truthfully, I personally didn’t see it prior to GWB taking over as our president. I suppose it began prior to him, but I didn’t notice it, perhaps the fascism element has shifted into high gear in the past four or five years.
We didn’t need a Common Dreams ten years ago;___ did we? If we did, it wasn’t here, it is apparent we need it now. That is a shame,___ it truly is, for by and large, we are among the minority. Are we strong,__ tough?__ We talk as if we are.__ I wonder?
Compare North America to other parts of the world. Do you think there was more terror in the US last summer, or in Lebanon? In Lebanon. Was the fear caused by terrorism? No, it was caused by an army equipped with American munitions, funded by American tax dollars.
What caused more terror, the status quo in Iraq, or the invasion and the situation it caused? What caused more terror in Vietnam, the extremely controlled occupation of Saigon by NVA troops, or the three million deaths caused by the American intervention in their civil war?
Somehow the word terrorist was hijacked in history to take its original meaning - a government that inflicts terror on its people* - to mean a non-government renegade who inflicts terror. Terrorism should mean something that causes terror: the US army coming to town, or the “accuracy” of the Israeili air force in its unerring determination to destry every apartment block in suothern Lebanon.
*It originated in the Jacobin government in France between July 1793 and July 1794
The terrorists can only win by causing the surrender of our way of life,
our constitutional form of government. The only way our constitutional
government can be taken is from within. Indeed it is clear that based on
their own words, this is the goal of our so called government. They
anxiously await the next terrorist attack as the catalyst for their
final solution. Whether this attack is a false flag attack or not, the
result will be the same. Either our leaders are sincere and telling the
truth, in which case they are surrender monkeys, or they are deceiving
us and intend to steal our constitutional form of government from us, in
which case they are lying thieves. What happened to “our way of life is
not negotiable.” Were they talking about our way of life or their way of
life?
As this article proves the biggest enemies are the ones within America and not outside.
KEM: Excellent post on the lava-like forward motion of fascism across our land. One thing I’d add is the way MSM has been used in its entertainment genre to relax the very concept and standard of privacy so that viewers were invited to PEER at those being arrested (cops), or those living under compromised circumstances (Survivor), etc. The electronic cameras everywhere bring to mind an excellent song by Jill Scott, “Watching me.” My only hope is that there will be such an information overload, and this group in power have proven so inept at everything they touch–they are all macho prowess–and no expertise, that it’s likely the really important “candidates” will slip through the cracks… kind of like Moses being sent upstream, so Pharaoh could manage to kill every OTHER first born son.
Kem thinks that America recently turned the wrong direction. Unfortunately, this is NOT true and most definately one of the single greatest reasons why our current course of action was so easily executed.
America has NEVER been a “beacon of freedom” to the world. The downtrodden have the imprints of American boots on their backs and “Made in the U.S.A.” is stamped on the bullets in their heads.
It takes GREAT suffering on the part of others for you and I to feel “ok” with our last credit card financed purchase.
You rail against DU ammo and for that I, and others, thank you, but there are equally heinous crimes committed by our country in the name of “War.”
The victims of the war on drugs suffer the same cancers, birth defects and deaths that those exposed to the nuclear waste we use as projectile weapons do and they have been exposed to those chemicals for generations without recognition.
There is one question NO AMERICAN asked following 9/11: That question is, “why?” Why did “they” attack our cities? The answer is too frightening for us to comprehend. When you look into a mirror you not only see your reflection, but the reflection of your surroundings and the foundations upon which they rely. The truth will not and can not set us free, as the truth is we LIKE the fact that our government’s punishment of the environment and the poor keeps an SUV in our garage and a flat-screen tv mounted on our wall.
That being said, may the revolution be as swift as it is peaceful.
Down with the Corporation.
Peace to you and yours.
The people who give you your daily dose of lies and propaganda supporting the war and neo-conservative agenda are not American patriots. They are Greenback Patriots and race-class armchair warriors determined to impose their will on the world. Calling others unpatriotic, they are unpatriotic. Calling others cowards in the war against terrorism, they support neo-con terrorism. What else can you call their threats to bomb Iran with nuclear weapons?
Using lies and propaganda, they lied us into a war against an oil-rich country that had nothing to do with the 9/11 attack against our country. Don’t be fooled when they say we must continue to support our troops in Iraq, their main concerns are war-profiteering, Iraqi Oil and their continued political domination of America. They are not looking our for our best interests, their only interest is to get richer, quicker.
How many lives are they willing to sacrifice to feed their greed?
If their insanity one day threatens their own families, are they too, expendable?
.
Siouxrose makes the mistake of believing that the current administration has been “inept” and that mistakes have been made. This too, isn’t true.
If your goal is a permanent state of war, victories aren’t something you seek. Instead, your goals are “progress.” This is where Iraq most resembles Vietnam. The American economy floats on a sea of war. It has since the Depression and we, the Americna people, have no desire to go back.
If we assumed that:
1) Iraq had WMD’s
2) Sadaam was WORSE than all other dictators we ignore
3) Democracy can flourish in the Middle East
4) Foreign oil is a “vital” national interest
the WE are/were the fools.
Stupid people don’t earn billions, MEAN ones do.
May God rot them all. (Oh yeah! I forgot. She will!!!)
Peace to you and yours.
The “War on Terror” is a fraud. It’s time we wage a war on the real terrorists and their enablers.
The goal of terrorism is to cause fear. How do you make terrorism ineffective? DON’T BE AFRAID. The only antidote for fear is hope. Keep repeating this to all of your friends.
Thank you, Sean Gonsalves, for saying what needs to be said — terrorism will not be ameliorated by increased security, it will be ameliorated by addressing the cause of fear in the terrorists and in their targets.
Give hope to the hopeless and they will not be motivated to commit terrorist acts. Give hope to the terrorized and they will not be afraid, even if they are the targets of terrorism. Hopeful people can make good choices about their futures — they can choose to champion civil rights and the rule of law because they know that is what keeps them safe, not increased security.
HAPPYSTEAD, you misunderstood my meanings, which is at times the flaws of writing blogs or e-mails on deep subject matter, where a back and forth dialog including body language and facial expressions is not possible.
I have kown since the age of ten when I read the history of Chief Blackhawk and Cochise and learned what our government did to the native Indians here. I also was aware of what we allowed with slavery and what we did to the Chinese laborors who worked building our railroads in the west, how horribly we treated them all.
I was aware of the mis-deeds of our government and of many of the good aspects of our government and of our citizens. We may have had many faluts an flaws, but everyone wished to come here to join and be American citizens. The million of those who sailed up the Hudson and glowed with hope and pride when they saw the Statue of Liberty for the first time.
What I meant in my prior blog was, in the last five or so years, even that is gone, who would have pride in our couuntry now? Not many I fear. We are despised by almost of the people of the world now, even our closest neighbors not only dislike us, they fear us since we invaded Iraq for no reason except money. Since the day I wrote my first paper about the pollution of our waters, when in seventh grade, I have deplored our government’s actions, or lack there of, in the area of saving and protecting the enviroment. I wrote then, ‘if America did not stop polluting our waters, we did not deserve to survive as a nation’. I still believe that.
So, anyway Happystead, I don’t think our government has recently turned the wrong direction as you said I ‘think’. I don’t ‘think’, I can see that our government has not turned the wrong direction, our government, now led by Bush, has driven us off the side of the mountain and we are on our zooming to the bottom. Will we stop the fall, pull a ripcord?___ I wonder
“Despite my miniscule efforts and those of others in the dreaded “mainstream media,” the national media have fallen short on providing context in the “war on terror,” aiding and abetting America’s foreign policy cataracts problem.”
Fortunately, for those who are actually suffering from cataracts, the problem can easily be corrected by surgery. On the other hand, the majority of journalists who are working for large media outlets and “aiding and abetting” are either unethical and irresponsible cowards, or just can’t think beyond what they’re being told.
Are they irresponsible cowards or blind to the truth?
Happystead wrote: If your goal is a permanent state of war, victories aren’t something you seek.
True. A permanent state of war demands that we must occasionally schedule and predict lost battles with an acceptable number of “friendly” deaths or, at least provide the perception that battles have been lost with appropriately-timed public expressions of mourning.