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America Slides Deeper Into Depression as Wall Street Revels
December was the worst month for US unemployment since the Great Recession began.
Wall Street rallied. Bulls hope that weak jobs data will postpone monetary tightening: a silver lining in every catastrophe, or perhaps a further exhibit of market infantilism.
In this Feb. 23, 2009 file photo, a home is seen in San Antonio, facing imminent foreclosure without assistance. (AP Photo/Eric Gay, file)
The home foreclosure guillotine usually drops a year or so after people lose
their job, and exhaust their savings. The local sheriff will escort them out
of the door, often with some sympathy –– just like the police in 1932,
mostly Irish Catholics who tithed 1pc of their pay for soup kitchens.
Realtytrac says defaults and repossessions have been running at over 300,000 a month since February. One million American families lost their homes in the fourth quarter. Moody's Economy.com expects another 2.4m homes to go this year. Taken together, this looks awfully like Steinbeck's Grapes of Wrath.
Judges are finding ways to block evictions. One magistrate in Minnesota halted a case calling the creditor "harsh, repugnant, shocking and repulsive". We are not far from a de facto moratorium in some areas.
This is how it ended between 1932 and 1934, when half the US states declared moratoria or "Farm Holidays". Such flexibility innoculated America's democracy against the appeal of Red Unions and Coughlin Fascists. The home siezures are occurring despite frantic efforts by the Obama administration to delay the process.
This policy is entirely justified given the scale of the social crisis. But it also masks the continued rot in the housing market, allows lenders to hide losses, and stores up an ever larger overhang of unsold properties. It takes heroic naivety to think the US housing market has turned the corner (apologies to Goldman Sachs, as always). The fuse has yet to detonate on the next mortgage bomb, $134bn (£83bn) of "option ARM" contracts due to reset violently upwards this year and next.
US house prices have eked out five months of gains on the Case-Shiller index, but momentum stalled in October in half the cities even before the latest surge of 40 basis points in mortgage rates. Karl Case (of the index) says prices may sink another 15pc. "If the 2008 and 2009 loans go bad, then we're back where we were before – in a nightmare."
David Rosenberg from Gluskin Sheff said it is remarkable how little traction has been achieved by zero rates and the greatest fiscal blitz of all time. The US economy grew at a 2.2pc rate in the third quarter (entirely due to Obama stimulus). This compares to an average of 7.3pc in the first quarter of every recovery since the Second World War.
Fed hawks are playing with fire by talking up about exit strategies, not for the first time. This is what they did in June 2008. We know what happened three months later. For the record, manufacturing capacity use at 67.2pc, and "auto-buying intentions" are the lowest ever.
The Fed's own Monetary Multiplier crashed to an all-time low of 0.809 in mid-December. Commercial paper has shrunk by $280bn ($175bn) in since October. Bank credit has been racing down a hair-raising black run since June. It has dropped from $10.844 trillion to $9.013 trillion since November 25. The MZM money supply is contracting at a 3pc annual rate. Broad M3 money is contracting at over 5pc.
Professor Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research said the Fed is baking deflation into the pie later this year, and perhaps a double-dip recession. Europe is even worse.
This has not stopped an army of commentators is trying to bounce the Fed into early rate rises. They accuse Ben Bernanke of repeating the error of 2004 when the Fed waited too long. Sometimes you just want to scream. In 2004 there was no housing collapse, unemployment was 5.5pc, banks were in rude good health, and the Fed Multiplier was 1.73.
How anybody can see imminent inflation in the dying embers of core PCE, just 0.1pc in November, is beyond me.
Mr Rosenberg is asked by clients why Wall Street does not seem to agree with his grim analysis.
His answer is that this is the same Mr Market that bought stocks in October 1987 when they were 25pc overvalued on Shiller "10-year normalized earnings basis" – exactly as they are today – and bought them at even more overvalued prices in 2007, long after the property crash had begun, Bear Stearns funds had imploded, and credit had its August heart attack. The stock market has become a lagging indicator. Tear up the textbooks.
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Show All"How anybody can see imminent inflation in the dying embers of core PCE, just 0.1pc in November, is"
Well, the "army of commentators" is just doing its job for its paymasters on Wall Street.
This morning's US newscasts included bits on "Obama softening up labor leaders to accept employer sponsored medical insurance taxation" and "Obama needs to create more job stimulus".
Millions of baby boomers are staying in their family wage jobs solely for the employer-sponsored medical insurance, thereby not passing those jobs on to young Americans who desperately need those jobs.
Had Obama pushed single-payer medical insurance through, or at least extended Medicare to 55-64 year olds, millions of boomers would now be retiring, opening up more jobs at less cost to taxpayers than any job stimulus program will create.
While Obama keeps telling us that small businesses and enterpreneurs are key to providing jobs that will drive the recovery, Obamacare will destroy many small businesses and foil enterpreneurs' ambitions.
Regarding Obamacare and small businesses. The word that comes to my mind to describe Obama policies is "confiscation." If the health insurance bailout taxation doesn't get you, the state takeover of 401Ks will. And I can't wait for Social Security reform being done with simultaneous world war on terror. The whole thing has become a nightmare. And Ben Bernanke was so sure he could stop a depression via his famous last resort of dropping money out of helicopters. Want to get rid of Bernanke? Fine by me. Just get rid of the privatized finance playground that made billions for Goldman Sachs and paupers of the rest of us.
There is one little dirty secret about Social Security. If the Federal Government did not collect the SS tax it would have to borrow more to wage the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, and elsewhere. SS tax goes directly or indirectly into the war till. The only reform Obama is likely to consider is an increase in SS tax and decrease in SS benefits. The "savings" will go into his wars.
Thats how Clinton managed to balance the budget. They count SS taxes as Gneral revnues.
This is akin to Banks declaring deposits made by customers as "profits".
That fellow that runs shadowstats claims that last years budget using commonly accepted accounting methods was some 5 trillion in the red.
This is no defence of Clinton, but Reagan was the first to reach into Social Security to supplement the general fund - this after he doubled the FICA taxation on American workers. That's what allowed him to hide the deleterious effects of his "supply-side" economics just long enough to let it take root.
Every president since - and the recent guy who wasn't president - has dipped into that cookie jar.
The phrase that comes to my mind is "taxation without representation." Since the people are no longer represented in the halls of power, we have become, in fact, a de facto tyranny. If one takes the definition of freedom to be 'participation in power,' then it should be crystal clear that we are about as un-free as a people can be. That so many people call America a "democracy" is besides the point, and only confirms that they have not been paying attention.
I am beginning to think that the one way to really get the attention of the powers-that-be would be a full-out, nationwide general strike. For an indefinite period. Not only would the moneyed class be forced to use their private army to regain control (i.e. the police force), making it abundantly clear who the authories serve and protect, but it could also crash the US Bond market, which is already hanging on by a very thin thread.
Why would Merkan Killer-Armaments & Petro-Plantations, Inc. shareholders want their CEO to do something that would reduce the size of the exploitable labor force?
Newsflash - a lot of those baby boomers also need the work, and they have mortgages and families, children, grandchildren who need to go to college and pay off the tuition. People with steady jobs or desirable skills are in a fortunate position, yes, but if gens X Y etc are having problems finding work, it's not the fault of selfish baby boomers. What would you have them do? Move into an empty crate in the alley, ruin their families so you can have their job? In times like these, people with incomes are entirely responsible and reasonable to hang onto them as long as they can, and thank their lucky stars. They are paying their taxes and probably supporting members of your generation who are still living at home for free.
It's a horrible time for everyone, jobless and working. Look at the big picture and place the blame where it belongs - on the Wall Street and corporate elite. They're the ones who have created this mess, stripping boomers of wages, benefits, holidays, savings, family time, mortgages, health insurance, etc. Maybe the bright side for the young jobless person is that he's not yet burdened with all the responsibilities, that he's not yet seen his life savings get sucked up into some fat cat's fleet of yachts in Monaco.
You're right of course, when you point out that a decent social infrastructure, such as universal medicare, social safety nets, would go a long way to creating the security that makes life possible for more people, young or old. That's where your attention should be directed.
This reminds me very much of the complaints of men, in the 70's and 80's, that "allowing" women in the workplace drove down wages. They were right, in a way. That was a big part of the plan. But wages started freezing for everyone, and women still earned 30% less than men, forcing some underbidding. "Allowing" women to work at jobs conveniently hid the fact that wages were stagnating, and the extra bit of income allowed people to maintain their consumerist lifestyles. But it wasn't women's fault - they were merely pawns in the game you see being played out today.
Apparently our wages are still too high, our benefits still too lavish to suit the ruling class. You need to realize that this is class war, and the middle class has lost - not because of women or boomers, but because the weaponry of the other side is so devastatingly powerful and ubiquitous. It's not boomers who are starving you; it's the Beast-With-Two-Backs, Wall Street and Washington. They also have another extremely effective weapon in their toxic arsenal - getting us to blame each other, though we're all in the same boat, when we should be ganging up on them.
BTW, I am a little too old to be a boomer. I took a cut in pay so a young person in my field could keep his job. And I retired 5 years early, allowing new people in. Currently, I work as a voluteer. Rethink your stereotypes, please. There are a lot of oldies like us.
Regarding his economic policies, is Obama profoundly stupid? Is he evil? Is he in a state of "lerarned helplessness" at the hands of corpoeate interests? All of the above?
Remember how his adoring promoters in 2008 said he would be the next FDR?
Obama is following the footsteps of Herbert Hoover, not FDR.
And as I've stated on several occasions, Hoover was a far better man than Obama, and Reagan, and Both Bushes, and Clinton. He was left of them on almost every aspect of governance, plus he had a sense of morality totally absent from the presidents I listed. Above all, Hoover was a man wanting World Peace.
Hoover = dam.
Obama = DAMN!!!
"Mister, we could use a man like Herbert Hoover again...
Those were the days!"
I will try to be the devil's advocate for Hoover in this comparison with Obama. Hoover was not an economist. He distrusted them. In addition this was by all means the most stupendously great recession/depression descending on the nation and little or no experience of how to deal with it. Hoover made mistakes and so did Roosevelt. Obama has no excuse. He should have learned from the Hoover/FDR pratfalls. Does Obama know that the nation was not at war during the years 1928-1941? It appears that he does not realize this when I consider his profligate spending on his pet-wars.
Given its size and tenacity the current recession/depression during a time of war is something entirely new. Anyone who believes that Obama's pet-wars will stimulate the economy had better make an appointment with his/her shrink.
I believe the wars are being done on behalf of oil interests. There may be a connection between the wars and the ability of the U.S. to not get foreclosed on by her foreign creditors.
It's all the above. Like Hoobert Heever, Obama is not a leader; he's a failure and he and the Democrats will feast on said failure.
No, Obama is an intelligent man but his hands are tied. September 2008 was a mere presage of what is to come as the can of total global monetary collapse was merely kicked down the road.
Now he's simply trying to buy more time using bandaids.
What's bad for America has GOT to be good for the rest of the world.
What's "money multiplier"? What's "MZM money supply"? What's the "Case-Shiller Index"? "Core PCE"? Somebody step forward and translate this jargon, please!
Yeah, exactly. Despite the fact that I don't understand any of this, I do recognize a depression when I see one.
Mordechai.
I agree that I understand almost nothing of Wall Street and Washington's shenanigans. However I do understand a principle that J. M. Keynes offered: when the rise of mean personal income lags behind inflation for many successive years there will inevitably come an eco-financial crash or else will make recovery much more hazardous. This principle is so simple that you can explain it to a preschooler with some appropriate example such as: "if dad earns less money and we must pay more at the grocery store we can buy fewer sweets and colas for you".
One of the most widespread misunderstandings of how and why the Great Depression ended soon after the end of WW2 is that the postwar boom was merely due to waging war. (A variant is that capitalism needs to make war to keep making profits). The true reason, in my opinion, was then that wages had risen more than inflation during and immediately after the war which caused an exuberant boom in the purchases of cars, radios, TV's, homes, refrigerators, dishwashers, and food. If you doubt this ask a couple that got married in, say, 1945 or '46.
Bringing people back into employment today but at drastically reduced average wages will not work in the long run but will cause new defaulting soon. Perhaps my view is revolutionary but the unions should now fight for higher wages for those still at work because only that will pick up our wage-based economy and will in turn spurn our capitalist wage-based economy to become more efficient and hire more workers.
The bugaboo in all of this is the banking system. I think that we need a huge "public bank option" essentially run by the Federal Government in competition with the "privately owned banks". Within a few decades we will learn which system is better for the nation and allow the other system to die.
When I contemplate the huge funds funneled to the banking system by the Federal Government the Obama administration is already running some sort of "public bank option" for the biggies except this is patently the wrong "public bank option" because it is a palliative and it will not cure anything. With my "options" privately owned banks will not be bailed out ever again. If you fail, you die.
sierra7
We have a deteriorated production system; no net job creation since 2000 (ten years); a continuing export of our good middle class jobs; a banking system that cares not one wit for the common people unless it is profitable to do so...and, contrary to contemporary economic belief, that just won't help you and I.....; a political system steeped in obfuscation, outright criminality with a legal system that actually protects swindling and other economic crimes.
"Summarizing" is what got us here in the first place; summarization by major media; faulty messages to the common folk; an education system that teaches how to consume and how to increase the desire and greed in participating in the system; and the results we are experiencing now.
We need to "firewall" the commons from the exploitation from the present banking system; establish community banks that will be limited to smaller profits while helping clean up the detritus of the past several hundred years of capitalist destruction.
What do you all expect when we have been taught that we must have the "freedom to consume?"
Our culture must change; for the survival of ourselves as humanity and for the good of the earth itself.
All education BEGINS when we leave school.......surely you all must have learned that by now.....that means, lots and lots of hours spent studying the system so that you will have the intellectual tools to fight that same system and achieve TRUE FREEDOM of spirit.
Out political leaders (with the exception of a small handfull) are ALL CORRUPT!!
And, historically how do people rid themselves of corrupt politicians??
They take to the streets.
General Strikes.
Consumer Strikes.
Band together.
Those are the "forgotten ways" of fighting.
This country has been brainwashed and taught the "necessary illusions" of prosperity of consumer goods instead of intellectual and spiritual ones (not talking about organized religion).
(I'm 80 years old and have "fought the good fight" more than once)
So, it's up to all of you younger ones,....Are you ready to fight?
Are you ready to give up "hearth and home" and take to the streets??????
Economists are the witch doctors for the corporations and the wealthy few. They have no interest in explaining anything to you. Economists have a prediction success rate roughly equivalent to the reading of chicken entrails and bone tosses. These guys have one task only, and that is to keep their make believe out of your scrutiny. That is achieved by jargon. Gibberish. It is all bullshit and anyone who has taken a basic course in economics should know that. Look at the intro textbooks and see how their predictive models are built. It's a joke. That is why they make so much money using this econospeak crap.
That is quite so. Anyone who knows anything about broader cosmic 'law' knows this as well. Ghandi gave us an insight into it with his 7 deadly sins:
1) Wealth without Work
2) Pleasure without Conscience
3) Science without Humanity
4) Knowledge without Character
5) Politics without Principle
6) Commerce without Morality
7)Worship without Sacrifice
We can see the first 6 in full bloom today. The jargon and subterfuge has evolved around them, but the principle is the same.
What has to be realized is that EVERYTHING must be PAID for. There is an expenditure of energy and resources required to build and/or change the form/function of anything. Generally, this translates to effort, whether 'slave' effort or otherwise. SOMEONE has to make an investment of energy for any kind of production to take place.
Presently, we have a society based upon exploitation, and is why things have been divided into classes, namely, the 'haves' and the 'have nots.' What the haves fail to realize (or do not care) is that within human beings there are severe psychological consequences--translating to the suppression of vital energies within the oppressed individual--for those who are exploited, and thus find it impossible to achieve a balance in their individual lives, leading to drug use, consumerism (which is encouraged, regardless of the consequences to the environment or desperation due to debt), and other means of 'escape' in an attempt to achieve a balance.
The haves are not immune either; they suffer the direct consequences of committing sins 1 and 2, and indirect consequences for 3, 4, 5, and 6.
The further out of balance things become, the more dangerous for mankind, including the haves. So, regardless of the gibberish and high-sounding jargon, cosmic debt (nature's debt works here as well) remains the same, and must, in one way or another be paid.
"money multiplier" - a $1 of spending... will produce more than $1 in the economy... if i give you $1... you go to the 7-11 and buy coffee... 7-11 pays it's employees who rang it up... the 7-11 suppliers sold 7-11 coffee... cups... filters... then the 7-11 and coffee suppliers employees go out an buy something... and that original $1 gets 'recycled' several times... right now... i think the "multiplier" effect is $1.75... in the real economy... that's why in recession/deprssions... govt spending... the only ones who can print money... each $1 spent actually spends more than $1... now... taxes come back to the govt... and govt services can be provided... that's a simplistic explanation
"Case-Shiller" is the gold standard of housing trends...
you need to try tor read more... like Thom Hartmann... Matt Tabbai... Mike Whitney... Pam Martens... Dean Baker... they all have articles around the web... dean baker writes at http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/beat_the_press...
and these folks educate as they expose... you have to get motivated... these terms are deliberately being used to bamboozle people...
like the "U6" unemployment rate... back in the 80's and 90's reagan AND clinton "jiggered" the numbers to remove underemployed and people unemployed more than a year... to make the real unemployment numbers look better... so unemployment will "go down"... just by the number of people unemployed more than a year dropping off the rolls every month... they can look good by DOING NOTHING...
NO ONE is going to explain this FOR you... and that's what they count on... it'll be a little confusing at first... but you'll pick it up in no time...
there was a time... i didn't know what "points" on a mortgage were... today... i can explain CDO's... MBS's... and several other obscure acronyms that caused 1/2 my housing value to go poof...
Don't waste your time with wildly inaccurate US unemployment numbers. Use the Bureau of Labor Statistics employment numbers and figure out for yourself and according to your standards what the real unemployment rate is.
You sir, are a moron.
According to TrimTabs the Bureau of Labor Statistics collects the most reliable number but doesn't use it, that is the withholding from salaries submitted to the IRS and reported daily. Its been on a continually decline since the Depression started.
thanks! "professor"... too simple... like duh... that makes perfect sense... daily tracking of witholding...
ross perot would say often.. a strong vibrant economy is millions and millions of workers and their tax dollars going into the treasury...
guess the "new pardigm" turns that whole thing on it's head... now that labor can be arbitraged... and they've perfected raiding the worker classes' assets... pensions... bennys... 401(k)'s... housing... health care costs... hmmm... what's left?
oops... forgot about those pesky socialist programs... social security and medicare...
ahhhh... but the night's still young...
Well said.
And let's not forget the CPI. Williams at Shadow statistics has shown how the Consumer Price Index was gamed to under represent inflation for the past 30 years or more. This threw a wrench in all the labor contracts that adjusted wages using the CPI, not to mention pensions and social security. Finally the effect on the government's poverty line amount was to move it lower and lower (even as the figure gradually rises in nominal dollars) due to the gamed CPI. Rather than correct this crap, they are allowing poverty level "multiples" to qualify for certain programs. It's just one lie after another.
The main culprit here is the master criminal, Alan Greenspan.
Thanks, Squidd, for your explanation of the "multiplier effect." I guess the multiplier effect goes under 1.00 if the government is buying "toxic assets." What they buy isn't worth what they are paying. And that, I suppose, is why bailing out the banks isn't as good as getting money to people directly. That money--what goes to people--gets recycled. Thanks for the lesson.
"The home siezures are occurring despite frantic efforts by the Obama administration to delay the process."
what effort? giving more money to the banksters?
we've now handed out more than 23 trillion to the banksters!
more than enough to pay off every residential mortgage in America 2 times over!
Obama is much more Hoover than FDR.
FDR said, "there are 2 ways of viewing the government's duty,
the 1st sees to it that a favored few are helped and hopes that some of their
prosperity will leak through, sift through, to labor, to the farmer, to the
small business man. That theroy belongs to the party of Torism, and I had hoped
that most of the Tories left this country in 1776."
Most people in Ameica are too damn stupid to even know what a Tory was - and don't knw that the founding fathers tarred and feathered people that were Tories.
that's about as far from Obama as it is close to the republicans.
Let's admit it - the democrats are now the party of the wealthy and war mongers- along with the republicans - leaving NO REPRESENTATION for the working class of America.
and by the way - has ANY newspaper covered the killings of 8 handcuffed school children in Afganistan? besides of course Democracy Now! and Flashpoints, etc?
if that happened here in America we would bomb that country!
Hey, you know those Brits, they use different words than we do, like "loo" for the bathroom, "tube" for subway and "frantic" for head-up-his-ass
Caught me up for a while, too, until I realized this was a U.K. piece. I mean, you could call it "frantic" in the sense that they seem to have absolutely no idea what they're doing. There's been story after story of the Obama Administration efforts being a failure.
Long live the squatters! If huge numbers simply refuse to leave their houses, what will happen? We have already seen sheriffs refuse to evict. That would put the screws to the banks.
is this where drones come in? when humans refuse to comply with orders to harm other humans?
Hear, hear. One of the best things that could happen is for enough people to get evicted that it becomes impossible to enforce eviction notices -- or for judges to issue them in the first place.
Let's bring this sucker down!
You must be freinds with Leland...
time to rewrite the song:
wasting away again in obamaville......
When the mountain crumbles, those at the top have the farthest to fall.
If that comforts you, you are horribly confused. But good luck with that train of thought.
Five hundred distinct cultures shared California before the Spanish arrived.
"Imminent inflation": Obamaspeak for more depraved corporate profit-taking from US! Lip-stickups by the Bush-hogs AGAIN!! The Bush Shadow KNOWS and BS talks!!!
But of course those 661,000 people still need a job and are thus unemployed, although they won't be counted now through what has become normal US government perfidy. Actual labor force consisting of people wanting/needing full or partime employment is stll about 210 Million. The total number of un- and underemployed is getting close to 50 Million. That's about 1/2 the number who voted in the last election. It will be interesting to see what this large army of unemployed does as the weather warms and unemployment and homelessness continue to rise.
It is not just the number of unemployed rocketing out of sight - it is the mostly neglected massive drop in number of jobs available.
Many business owners, both large and small, are finding that big ain't necessarily better. Many are becoming comfortable at their current level - less gross income but same net profits.
Most workers for them are NOT happy since now they are performing what used to be 2 or 3 different functions as part of their current job duties with no pay increase and increased stress.
But I could be wrong !
I agree that the disappearence of jobs that will never return is major and being swept under the rug. The massive offshoring of jobs has created a new labor market structure many of millions of jobs smaller than just 8 years ago, and tens of millions less than 1982. I came across a chart, http://home.comcast.net/~mcain6925/etc/emp-pop.gif
that displays this very well. The Peak in US employment came just as BushCo was placed in office by the USSC and will *never* be as high again unless drastic measures are undertaken. Such measures are clearly no where to be seen. Hell, they're not even being talked about. The current crisis may not all be Obama's doing, but he's doing no better a job than BushCo did during and after Katrina. Which is to say that Obama is mucking things up really good, and the damage he causes will make Bush's Katrina damage inflicting look like child's play.
" The massive offshoring of jobs has created a new labor market structure many of millions of jobs smaller than just 8 years ago, and tens of millions less than 1982."
...with millions *MORE* people that have been added to the labor market that new jobs need to be created for even if there were no net job losses to begin with.
Exactly, so you now understand the gravity of the overall situation--Millions of people need jobs that will never exist within the prevailing economic structure. It is a new form of "enclosure," dispossession of the masses on the Race to the Bottom.
The USSR disintegrated from within as millions of workers went through the motions at their factories, producing nothing much of value for the society, a situation summed up by the saying: "We pretend to work; they pretend to pay us." The big difference is the US situation is much, much darker--there not being any work and only so much time allowed on the dole. Suicides upon evictions; murder-suicides wiping out whole families by distraut husbands/fathers; ex-workers run amok suicide attacking their former places of employment, killing former co-workers over layoff, pension and medical insurance issues. Several thousand people died just last year from "economic" causes, many dozens who were totally innocent and indeed faced similar problems. At least in the USSR you didn't lose your home or your health care, nor would you starve or want for basic clothing. I'm not advocating for the USSR's system; rather I'm pointing out how terrible the USA's is in comparison.
Our answers:
Be positive.
Take Abilify.
Joe