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Published on Tuesday, November 28, 2000 by Agence France Press
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Going Backwards:
US Carbon Dioxide Emissions Expected To Rise Sharply By 2020: Government |
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WASHINGTON, Nov 28 - US carbon dioxide emissions are expected to exceed 1990 levels by 34 percent in 2010 and 51 percent in 2020 in response to rising demand for energy, the government reported here Tuesday.
Those levels, respectively 1,809 and 2,041 million carbon equivalent metric tons, would vastly surpass the limits outlined in the Kyoto Protocol, a global framework for reducing environmentally damaging carbon gas emissions that was agreed to in 1997 by 170 countries including the United States. The agreement in principle called for 38 industrialized nations to trim by 5.2 percent the global output of carbon gases -- such as carbon dioxide -- compared with 1990 emissions. It set 2012 as the date for achieving the cuts. Quota targets were accepted by the major industrialized nations that would amount to a reduction of seven percent for the United States and eight percent for the 15 European Union countries. But efforts to transform the protocol into a firm treaty collapsed in The Hague last week end in a bitter row between the United States and the European Union on precisely how the emissions cuts would be implemented. Environment ministers nonetheless agreed to meet again in six months. Greenhouse gases, byproducts of burning oil, gas and coal, have been blamed for a dangerous rise in atmospheric temperatures. The forecast by the US Energy Department's information administration released here Tuesday also forecast US economic growth to average three per cent a year through 2020, boosting projected energy demand by 24 percent compared with 1999. "Growth in energy demand is expected to lead to rising carbon dioxide emissions from energy combustion," said the department's energy information administration. It said that carbon dioxide emissions in 2020 are now projected to be three percent above an estimate made last year. But the report also found that higher emissions would be partially offset by increased nuclear power generation. It predicted US oil imports would rise 26 percent to an average 12.1 million barrels per day in 2020 from an average of nine million in 1999. Domestic oil production was projected to decline at an average annual rate of 0.7 percent to 5.1 million barrels per day in 2020 from six million in 1999, an overall output drop of 18 percent. "Advances in exploration and production technologies do not offset declining oil resources," the Energy Information Administration said, adding that US dependence on foreign petroleum imports was expected to rise to 64 percent by 2020 from 51 percent in 1999. The United States is the world's biggest oil importer. The average world oil price is forecast to dip to 20.50 dollars a barrel by 2003, according to the EIA said. Oil prices have increased to an average 27.60 dollars a barrel this year from 17.35 dollars in 1999. Production cutbacks by OPEC and non-OPEC countries, a lag in the response of non-OPEC producers to price increases, and renewed oil demand growth in Asia are seen as key factors underpinning fresh price gains going forward, the EIA said. OPEC oil output is forecast to yield 57.6 million barrels per day in 2020, almost double the 29.9 million a day recorded in 1999. Copyright © 2000 AFP ### |