World Needs to Axe Greenhouse Gases by 80 Pct: Report
OSLO - The world will have to axe greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent by 2050, more deeply than planned, to have an even chance of curbing global warming in line with European Union goals, researchers said on Thursday.Even tough long-term curbs foreseen by the EU or California fall short of reductions needed to avert a 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) temperature rise over pre-industrial times, seen by the EU as a threshold for “dangerous change”, they said. 
“If we are to have a 50 percent chance of meeting a 2 Celsius target we would have to cut global emissions by 80 percent by 2050,” Nathan Rive of the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo told Reuters.
“Any delay in implementing emissions reductions will make a 2 degree target practically unreachable,” he and colleague Steffen Kallbekken wrote of findings to be published in the journal Climatic Change.
The EU reckons that there would be dangerous disruptions to the climate such as ever more droughts, heatwaves, floods and rising seas beyond a 2 C ceiling. Temperatures already rose by about 0.7 Celsius in the 20th century.
An 80 percent global cut would mean rich nations, responsible for most heat-trapping emissions from fossil fuels burnt by power plants, factories and cars, would have to axe emissions by about 95 percent below 2000 levels by 2050.
Developing countries such as China, India, Brazil and Indonesia, where emissions are rising sharply in line with energy use to help lift millions from poverty, would have to take on less swinging reductions, they said.
CALIFORNIA
“Even the most ambitious proposals for emissions cuts in 2050, such as the UK draft climate bill which sets a cut of 60 percent, or the California target to reduce emissions by 80 percent by 2050, fall short,” they said.
A draft report by the U.N. climate panel due for release on May 4 in Bangkok also concludes that a maximum 2 C rise would be hard to achieve. Restraints on emissions consistent with the goal could cost up to 3 percent of world gross domestic product.
And Kalbekken and Rive said that global emissions would have to peak in 2025, with cuts in place by 2010, to achieve an 80 percent cut by mid-century. Any delays would sharply raise costs.
Under the U.N.’s Kyoto Protocol, 35 industrialized nations now have goals of cutting emissions by 5 percent below 1990 by 2008-12. The United States, which says the plan is too costly and wrongly excludes developing states, is the main outsider.
U.N. climate negotiations focused on widening Kyoto beyond 2012 are stalled. Developing nations say they cannot be expected to cap emissions when energy use has been a key to economic growth by rich states since the Industrial Revolution.
© Reuters 2007.
That “geo-cosmos” sculpture is impressive, but how much CO2 pollution did it require to make it? A U.N. report found [[http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=10007&Cr=computer&Cr1]]
“that the construction of an average 24-kilogram computer and 27-centimetre monitor requires at least 240 kilograms of fossil fuel, 22 kilograms of chemicals and 1,500 kilograms of water – or 1.8 tons in total, the equivalent of a rhinoceros or sports utility vehicle.” Maybe it’s symbolic value warrants that sort of pollution, but we must begin to look more carefully at the ramifications of all our production and consumption practices.
Excellent point noise… what do we use to post these msgs? I think if people looked more carefully at where any and everything they purchase comes from they will begin to change the things they purchase quickly. Most people understand and know how globalization is working. They just don’t look carefully since it may disrupt their concept of the United States of denial.
I’ll believe the U.S. is getting serious about climate change when NASCAR is banned.
We don’t have a rational economy. We don’t have any rational leaders. And the leaders we do have haven’t put out any rational strategies for rationally dealing with real problems.
We’re headed towards a really irrational ecological explosion and global warming is only a fraction of what that actually involves. One thing is for sure though. Capitalism as we know it since its rise is in no way going to be part of any rational solution. It failed to solve the inherent problems of injustice contained within it, and now is failing the test of sustainably protecting world ecology for future generations.
Earth is dying of cancer, and things look grim. We can only hope that soon, people will stop dealing with this threat to our existance in an incremental manner and will be able to implement real solutions in a revolutionary way. Our business ‘leaders’ will not be our leaders then. ‘Business’ is the problem and not the solution.
The earth is flat, the sun moves around the earth, the entire planet is about 6,000 years old and dinosaur fossils are a practical joke placed in the ground by the planet’s creator to test our faith. Those are the stated beliefs of at least half of the US electorate.
Even in climate concious California where I live there really isn’t implementation of the kinds of easy changes needed to reduce GHG emissions. If anything the SUV’s and giant pick-ups are getting BIGGER along with the mcmansions of the well off.
Some easy changes that could be made THIS YEAR:
1: Require that all new buildings have white or thermally reflective roofs. (air conditioning is a major power user in California) Actually we should require all replacement roofing to be thermally reflective.
2: Institute a dollar per gallon carbon tax on gasoline, diesel,methane and propane and refund 3/4’s of the funds on a per resident basis to make it revenue neutral. Use the other 1/4 of funds for solar panel tax credits.
3: Immediatly implement all light rail and fast rail corridor proposals that have been stalled due to local politics or lack of funds.
4: Provide state financing for geo-exchange heating/cooling systems on rental property so that rental property owners get cash flow neutral replacement of aging HVAC systems. Much of California’s housing is rental housing with aging, inefficient heating/cooling systems that leak greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
Of course NONE of the above proposals or anything like them is going to get past the legislatures in the US precisly because they would benefit the great mass of people and slightly tax the wealthy.
I think we’re waiting for people to die before we do anything about Global Warming; of course I mean RICH people. Nobody gives a crap about the poor.
A world population of more than 6.7 billion has been attained through the use of fossil fuels for energy production, fertilizers and our whole modern civilization. A sustainable population of earth friendly people may be far far below 6.7 billion. Just a wild guess would be say 1 billion people plus or minus a half billion. We all know that we will go headlong into the future without making any substantial changes until the civilization that we know falls apart of it’s own accord.
Realists know this.
We are running out of natural resources at the same time we are suffering from population explosion and dramatic loss in habitation.
There were two ways to work with this inevitability.
1) The world in a spirit of sharing to avoid conflict would work out a plan to share diminished resources and at the same time find solutions to both controlling population and alternative sources of energy.
2) Or do what we’ve always done. Seek out what we needed and crush with the use of deceit and brutal force any and all that would get in our way not really caring that the consequences of our actions would seal the world to a horribly, miserable fate.
We picked #2 - again. I’ve never been a big fan of mankind.
So, we’ve blown it. We crawled out of the cave and never let go of the club and we wound up beating ourselves to death with it.
It’s why I drink and spit on SUV’s.
Major Causes of Global Temperature Shifts
——————————————————————————–
(1) Astronomical Causes
* 11 year and 206 year cycles: Cycles of solar variability ( sunspot activity )
* 21,000 year cycle: Earth’s combined tilt and elliptical orbit around the Sun ( precession of the equinoxes )
* 41,000 year cycle: Cycle of the +/- 1.5° wobble in Earth’s orbit ( tilt )
* 100,000 year cycle: Variations in the shape of Earth’s elliptical orbit ( cycle of eccentricity )
(2) Atmospheric Causes
* Solar reflectivity: Due to white clouds, volcanic dust, polar ice caps
* Heat retention: Due to atmospheric gases, mostly gaseous water vapor (not droplets), also carbon dioxide, methane, and a few other miscellaneous gases– the “greenhouse effect” (to which our anthropogenic contribution =
[to continue] …our anthropogenic contribution is less than 0.3%. WATER VAPOR accounts for 95% of the ‘greenhouse effect!
Ergo, even if ALL anthropogenic “greenhouse gas” (CO2, Methane, etc.) were removed from our atmosphere there would be less than a 0.3% reduction in the “greenhouse effect”.
For more details see: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/milankovitch.html
bluttge you’re not getting it. Never in the last 600,000 years has the temperature of this planet change as quickly as it is expected to. Its not the temperature rise it is the RATE of temperature rise.
bluttge Where did you read that? You copy old science good. They don’t know that for sure. Doctors go on theory, like scientists. THEORY!
buttage: You’re full of crap. You are simply pasting in bad science from other corporate hacks. Don’t post this crap without siting the source. This way I can tell you exactly who they work for and exactly how much money Exxon paid to the hacks think tank for that work. And for the rest of you, always check out Exxonsecrets.org to see where Exxon spreads it’s $16M to keep doubt on global warming alive. The irony is that those same millions can’t get ANY scientist to publish research in a peer reviewed journal because there is no science to support these hacks. The few attempts have been blown out of the process for laughably bad data collection.
I’ve noticed a focused disinformation attack on Global Warming on the net in the last few days. Always the same arguements…..sunspots, natural cycles, water, not anthropegenic, etc.
I think Exxon has given up on Global Warming denial and is now funding Global Warming defeatism. Talking point:”It has nothing to do with coal or oil.” Repeated ad naseaum.
The deniers final barricade is the useless solution i.e. “the hydrogen economy, cellulosic ethanol and nuclear power.” The point of these thrusts is to put the promise for change behind the potential solution with the highest barriers in order to maintain the status quo.
Note that Arnold Schwarzenhegger is now wearing a fresh coat of greenwash in the form of a hydrogen hummer and a biodiesel hummer. Arnold still commutes from Sacremento to his LA househole EVERY DAY by private aircraft. His commitment to solving anything is about as thick as the coat of paint on his hydrogen hummer and about as usefull. (range +/- 50 miles)
I am shamelessly using this forum plugging this awesome new environmental advocacy site devoted to important issues including this one. It is also trying to create a network of environmentalists to exchange ideas.
It needs new members who will keep blogs, create campaigns, and try to create change.
http://my.ecoearth.info/
Thanks,
tranquilidy
Every one of us has the power to make a huge impact on global warming by eliminating meat and animal products from our diets. Certainly, corporate polluters and governments need to be held to higher standards, but we must also be willing to question and challenge our own actions, habits, and addictions, even those we can’t dream of changing. When groups such as the UN (not exactly a pro-animal rights force) conclude that animal agriculture is producing more greenhouse gases than all automobiles combined, pershaps it’s time for all environmentalists and anyone concerned about our planet to take notice and make changes in their lives.
bluttge: Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere acts within a positive feedback loop. The increase in temperature caused by the CO-2 allows the atmosphere to retain more water vapor. It is true that water vapor retains heat more than CO-2 but CO-2 is the instigator. Consider this: Mercury is 2 times closer to the sun than Venus, yet Venus has a much higher average temperature, in large part because of the high concentration of CO-2 in its atmosphere. I am wondering if you are hoping for one of those $10,000 gifts from Exxon Mobil.
The only effective way to reduce greenhouse gasses by 80% is to reduce the human population by a third and recycle 100% of industrial and human waste. Otherwise, the carry-over of the gasses already in the atmosphere and those produced in the meantime, will overwhelm any miniscule efforts by lying politicians and their double-dealing corporate sponsors.
The population of Easter Island reached its peak at perhaps more than 10,000, far exceeding the capabilities of the small island’s ecosystem. Resources became scarce, and the once lush palm forests were destroyed - cleared for agriculture and moving the massive stone Moai. In this regard, Easter Island has become, for many, a metaphor for ecological disaster.
Thereafter, a thriving and advanced social order began to decline into bloody civil war and, evidently, cannibalism. Eventually, all of the Moai standing along the coast were torn down by the islanders themselves. All of the statues now erected around the island are the result of recent archaeological efforts.
What happened on Easter Island is happening on planet earth and at a much faster rate….
Coincidently, the Australian Drought is worsening as I write and stupid recalcitrant Prime Minister John Howard refuses to sign Kyoto….
bluttge April 20th, 2007 1:18 am
If World Leaders follow your twisted link to it’s deadly conclusion….
By 2050, the PlANET will be TOAST….
The idiots running Australia are actually expanding coal exports to China. I wonder how they plan to water their fields with money?
Meanwhile Australia sits atop the geothermal Saudi Arabia. Underneath Australia vast tracts of slightly radioactive hot rock have enough energy to supply all of their energy needs for the forseable future. http://preview.tinyurl.com/yobnl4
Never mind that a country with a small population and vast tracts of desert could export solar-hydrogen pumped methanol to the rest of the world. Like this: http://preview.tinyurl.com/32eplb
http://www.stirlingenergy.com/
Nah, that would make sense. Got a solar barbecue for that long pork?
To new world order: The “think tank” you are referring to –Competitive Enterprise Institute– is funded by Exxon Mobil.
As for your comment that coal is cleaner than ever–What that means is that the coal from the Powder River Basin in Wyoming has less sulfur that Appalachian coal. Coal plants are still considered the filthiest of all fuel sources. Coal accounts for the majority of sulfur dioxides and nitrogen oxides in the air, and arsenic in the water. Coal plants are the reason fish are now loaded with mercury. Coal also spews uranium and thorium into the air in the form of fly ash. It may be cleaner, but it sure isn’t clean.
New World Order:
You think Russia and China are still Communist state-managed command economies?! Haven’t you read the news reports for the past 16 years or so? The Soviet Union collapsed and converted to capitalism, and China abandoned it socialist economy in favor of massive foreign capitalist investments. Even Vietnam, who we fought and lost, has converted to capitalism - all because they discovered socialism doesn’t work, and the Russian, Chinese and Vietnamese people have been demanding to have their pieces of the free enterprise pie, so their “Communist” governments, to save their hold on political power, have allowed private enterprises to establish growing profitable businesses to put their growing populations to work. That’s the problem: what to do with their ever-growing population?
That’s why China now operates the fastest growing economy in the World (about 10%) because it allows each privately owned corporation to rapidly re-invest its profits in new factories, houses, markets, etc. Didn’t you see the Frontline report on the Chinese sweat shop, owned and operated by a former Chinese Chief of Police? Yeah that’s right, many of the former Communists have become business owners! Didn’t you hear that the Chinese Communists were debating whether or not to invite rich businessmen to join the Party? What a joke! Who’s kidding who? Communism and socialism are dead everywhere except in a few small nations like Cuba, North Korea and Venezuela and…?
So, what are you upset about? Your investments are safe as the Dow Jones Industrial Average hits a new high every month! Why should you care if smoke stack pollution is seeeping into every living body on Earth, and who cares if droughts and storms are getting worse? Not you! Relax jack, you’ve never had it so good, and if it doesn’t last much longer, well, you got your piece of the pie, didn’t you? You should have, with all the massive business expansion and massive growing human population! Yee haa! Business as usual onward and upward to the stars ! — and don’t listen to the growing majority of scientists who obviously don’t know what they’re talking about, and don’t mind me, a grumpy old pensioner grumbling and fussing about the fate of life on Earth. What do we know ( !!! )
“Bye bye human race, you blew it”.
The reality is even if carbon emissions were theoretically remained at 2007 levels, by 2050 global temp would increase by 2-3 degrees centigrade. That’s Centigrade not Fahrenheit.
Global warming is currently a run away train. It’s just now a question of what version of HELL on earth do you fancy. Global warming /Climate change is happening MUCH faster than any administration/bureaucratic official even understands/knows or is in DENIAL ABOUT!!!!
Bush and Cheney et al are like dinosaurs, stuck in the last century. Trouble is they taking the whole planet with them… i.e. down the toilet!!!
Just at a time when American Administration could be taking a WORLD Leadership role to reign in real culprits like China and India; Bush et al are STUPIDLY mesmerized by their own bullshit fighting ISLAMO FASCISTS…a term which defies any historical or academic basis or fact….
To new world order: The “think tank” you are referring to –Competitive Enterprise Institute– is funded by Exxon Mobil…..
ie Dr Fred Singer and his cronies getting blood on their hands for money
Com_n_sense–
I often take a dim view of “mankind”, myself. But I don’t think our species is nearly so bad, by nature, as our competitive and capitalist, and assorted other classist, and assorted other economic systems and modes of civilization have made it. Even in spite of diligent conditioning, there seem to be plenty of “meek” out there, who deserve to inherit the earth.
Perhaps we could “make his paths straight” by teaching each other wealth and power ought to be viewed as a badge of shame, and that the pursuit of these things is shameful in itself. Who are such people, anyway, but the engineers, accomplices, and beneficiaries of a worldwide system of slavery and oppression?
We should admire, instead, people who embrace a simple and modest and generous way of life, and who devote themselves to the practical love of others.
There are plenty of people of this second type–and there would be plenty more, if we reminded each other more often which kind of people deserve our admiration.
By the way….
New World Order just peddle your BULLSHIT somewhere else….