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Gulf Spill Could Be Much Worse Than Believed
The amount of oil spilling into the Gulf of Mexico is far greater than official estimates suggest, according to an exclusive NPR analysis.
This image released by BP on May 11 shows the main oil leak (R) of the Deepwater Horizon rig which exploded April 20 and killed 11 workers.
(AFP/BP) At NPR's request, experts analyzed video that BP released Wednesday. Their findings suggest the BP spill is already far larger than the 1989 Exxon Valdez accident in Alaska, which spilled at least 250,000 barrels of oil.
BP has said repeatedly that there is no reliable way to measure the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico by looking at the oil gushing out of the pipe. But scientists say there are actually many proven techniques for doing just that.
Steven Wereley, an associate professor of mechanical engineering at Purdue University, analyzed videotape of the seafloor gusher using a technique called particle image velocimetry.
A computer program simply tracks particles and calculates how fast they are moving. Wereley put the BP video of the gusher into his computer. He made a few simple calculations and came up with an astonishing value for the rate of the oil spill: 70,000 barrels a day -- much higher than the official estimate of 5,000 barrels a day.
The method is accurate to a degree of plus or minus 20 percent.
Given that uncertainty, the amount of material spewing from the pipe could range from 56,000 barrels to 84,000 barrels a day. It is important to note that it's not all oil. The short video BP released starts out with a shot of methane, but at the end it seems to be mostly oil.
"There's potentially some fluctuation back and forth between methane and oil," Wereley said.
But assuming that the lion's share of the material coming out of the pipe is oil, Wereley's calculations show that the official estimates are too low.
"We're talking more than a factor-of-10 difference between what I calculate and the number that's being thrown around," he said.
At least two other calculations support him.
Timothy Crone, an associate research scientist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, used another well-accepted method to calculate fluid flows. Crone arrived at a similar figure, but he said he'd like better video from BP before drawing a firm conclusion.
Eugene Chiang, a professor of astrophysics at the University of California, Berkeley, also got a similar answer, using just pencil and paper.
Without even having a sense of scale from the BP video, he correctly deduced that the diameter of the pipe was about 20 inches. And though his calculation is less precise than Wereley's, it is in the same ballpark.
"I would peg it at around 20,000 to 100,000 barrels per day," he said.
Chiang called the current estimate of 5,000 barrels a day "almost certainly incorrect."
Given this flow rate, it seems this is a spill of unprecedented proportions in U.S. waters.
"It would just take a few days, at most a week, for it to exceed the Exxon Valdez's record," Chiang said.
BP disputed these figures.
"We've said all along that there's no way to estimate the flow coming out of the pipe accurately," said Bill Salvin, a BP spokesman.
Instead, BP prefers to rely on measurements of oil on the sea surface made by the Coast Guard and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Those are also contentious. Salvin also says these analyses should not assume that the oil is spewing from the 21-inch pipe, called a riser, shown in the video.
"The drill pipe, from which the oil is rising, is actually a 9-inch pipe that rests within the riser," Slavin said.
But Wereley says that fact doesn't skew his calculation. And though scientists say they hope BP will eventually release more video and information so they can refine their estimates, what they have now is good enough.
"It's possible to get a pretty decent number by looking at the video," Wereley said.
This new, much larger number suggests that capturing -- and cleaning up -- this oil may be a much bigger challenge than anyone has let on.
- Posted in
114 Comments so far
Show AllA quarter of a million barrels of oil, or half a million, or a million - they're just numbers. The real tally is what it does to the ecology of the Gulf and to the livelihoods of the people who depend on a working ecological balance.
I heard an interesting piece on the Diane Rehm show yesterday. One guest made an interesting point that illustrates the disconnect that American environmentalists display. We decry oil rigs off the US coasts, but don't seem to have a problem using oil from countries, such as Nigeria, where coastal oil rigs have huge spills every day. Every day!
Let's please keep this in mind when think about pointing our fingers and opening our mouths. We are they, and they are we. What we do and how we live affects everyone and everything.
Yes, "what we do and how we live affects everyone and everything." We all participate in the oil economy, and we should be aware of not only the environmental destruction in places like Nigeria, but the murders of Nigerian activists (not to mention a couple ongoing oil wars). And yes, I use oil every day, even knowing the true costs. On the other hand, between 2001 and 2004, I logged almost 100,000 miles on my car (over 20,000 miles/year)--since 2004, about 20,000 miles total (less than 4,000 miles/year). Having substantially reduced my gasoline consumption by moving to the city and taking public transit around town, I feel I have earned the right to point my finger (while continuing to understand that I am STILL using too much oil and can and will act to reduce it more, probably selling my car altogether once I no longer need to transport my aged mother around).
We are not equally culpable. I heard someone from the Gulf Coast say on NPR (National Petroleum Radio) the other day that anyone who drives a car is equally part of the Deepwater Horizon disaster. That's a load of crap, like blaming pot smokers for the drug thuggery in Mexico. BP, Transoceanic, and Halliburton are fully responsible for this one. The fact that they have been systemmatically lying since the blow-out is no surprise. The fact that there is no way they can engineer a solution without having calculated the flow rate means they are still hiding information. Not that it will matter, since congress will probably bail out BP for its losses!
"On the other hand, between 2001 and 2004, I logged almost 100,000 miles on my car (over 20,000 miles/year)--since 2004, about 20,000 miles total (less than 4,000 miles/year). Having substantially reduced my gasoline consumption by moving to the city and taking public transit around town, I feel I have earned the right to point my finger"
Exactly! I experienced the same thing when I moved to the city from a live in the surban wastelands of other cities. I went 6 winters without ever having to scrape or sweep a windshield once.
My job since moved back to the suburbs to a location where bus service is lousy (one bus a day AM and PM to the job) and about to become lousier. So I made as priority #1 in my house hunting to find a closer in walkable neighborhood that is also withing 6 miles from work. I now use an electric motor scooter (220 carbon-equivalent mpg) for nearly all local travel, and there is still good bus service into town. But how many others USAns besides me take these considerations - walkability, access to transit, short commute to work in choosing where to live or work? No one!
I am aware that being in the old-fashioned and depopulating Pittsburgh area helped a lot in my situation. When I travel, or look back at places I used to live, from DC to Denver to Seattle, to Lexington, KY or Marion, IL, a car-free or low-car usage way of life has been made nearly impossible. And what is most important to understand, it didn't happen by accident. The construction of a culture and infrastructure that is so reliant on the personal, single-occupant automobile has been very deliberate.
So yes, I feel we have earned the right to be a bit preachy. I use so little gasoline that I really don't eve follow the price of gasoline except to cheer when it goes higher.
Over the last five years I've been able to reduce driving miles from around 20K to a bit over 10K a year. An electric CAR which I will never be able to afford is one thing, but the thought of a electric SCOOTER never even occurred to me. For much of my driving that would do quite nicely. I could easily drop that 10K car miles to maybe 6K. Holy Cowabunga, Bart Simpson!! Gotta look into this. The fuel savings alone will probably pay for the scooter, making it "FREE".
THANK YOU SABOCAT!!
My curernt pair of scooters bought in 2005-2006 needed a lot of work from how they came out of the crate from China. First, to repair all the QC and design defects, and secondly, to modify them for satisfactory performance in my hilly area - I had to modify the controller, raise the opeating voltage and change from lead-acid to lithium batteries. The current batch of Chinese (Xtreme, RMartin, EFun) scooters are a bit better, but you still better have some DIY mechanical, electric and elctronic skills. I'd only consider lithium powered versions - or convert a lead-acid version to lithium.
A good up-and-coming manufacturer - US made with Chinese components - who I can recommend to the less machanically inclined (but at a higher price) is here:
http://www.currentmotor.com/
A whole forum discussing this stuff is here:
www.visforvoltage.org
You must be an electrical engineer. What did it cost to change from lead acid to lithium ion? I'm pretty handy, but what you describe is probably beyond my skills. I'll take a look at your links.
Many many years ago I was a meter reader for the Southern California Edison company. 1978 timeframe. I tested/evaluated an electric scooter for use on my job. It was impractical for our uses as parking the car and walking the city neighborhood routes was more efficient (time effective) for meter reading. However, even then, the scooter had lots of acceleration and speed, and would have been perfect for personal use in an urban or even suburban environment -- commuting, shopping, heck just plain fun. I didn't have the chance to test its range. That had to be not much beyond first generation, had to have been lead-acid, etc., etc. Still, it seemed to be a very high quality vehicle, especially for the time. I don't remember the brand name or country of manufacture. Bearing all of that in mind, I'm still nonplussed that I didn't think of using an electric scooter in lieu of my car for lots of my driving.
Thanks again.
"You must be an electrical engineer."
Not at all (I am a civil engineer - or the EE's at VA Tech used to derisively call us "simple engineers") but I work on cars and appliances a lot, and learned the necessary electronic concepts as I needed them from various internet forums. I didn't actually have to design any electronics to speak of.
As far as your Carter-era prototype scooter, we have probably only regressed in a lot of ways.
There is a forum for more technical aspects of small EV's here:
http://endless-sphere.com/forums/
- although the participants are electrified bicycle enthusiasts - not scooter or motorcycle enthusiasts.
Been gone all day so just now saw your reply and discussion with KS. So, three of us have made significant reductions. That makes me feel some better.
P.S. Seattle is still very bikable and relatively mass transit friendly.
I can empathize with this post. My position as a field technician requires I drive to and from clients. I have a v6 and it gets 29 mpg on the highway. The trunk, backseat and passenger seat is always full of work related parts. I wish it got 49 mpg and will use my first chance to buy a Leaf or some other hybrid. My territory takes me to parts of town where soccer moms are seen solo driving Suburban XLSs almost every third car. I mean literally more of these than I can count. I seriously just don't get it. I mention it to my wife and she says "maybe they have 3 kids". I keep looking for the giant vehicles with more than one or two people in them. I am still waiting. When did status involve the most fuel consumption on the block ? Were they giving these away in cracker jack boxes and I missed it. Will driving one of these ever equate to drinking bottled water or smoking while pregnant ? If I had a nickel for every one I saw with one occupant, I could afford a Prius ! Feeling the way I do has sensitized me to this spectacle. I saw images today http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/05/disaster_unfolds_slowly_in_the.html that left me speechless. I tried to show them to my wife and was so choked up, I couldn't speak.
Yeah, and it gets even more provincial and insular than that. Right now, a group of senators from CA, OR and WA are proposing a ban of OCS drilling - but only for the west coast.
Just why do we have to rely on BP to give video ???
What right do they have to hold back video ???
And if they are afraid to show what is going on
down there, never mind..........
We aren't allowed to see our war
and we aren't allowed to see our oil gusher
we can't do this and we can't do that
but we are getting screwed. We can't protest
we can't organize, elections fradulent,
assholes still voting Democrat and Republican
still driving in our stupid vehicles in the same
manner as always, the Gulf is now dead
disperants emulsifing the oil to stay in the water
Obama asks for 80 billion for new and update of Nuc Weapons
and another 100 mill for delivery systems of these weapons
People getting mowed down in Afghan and Irag ten years later
education , can't afford, all state and local governments
in debt, americans dummer than ever still listenting to MSM
Rachael Maddow sucks as much as glen beck
someone on the payroll of Goldman-Sachs going to Supreme Court
and no one cares in congress about this .John Conyers endorsing
republicans. elections a fraud elections a fraud elections a fraud
species dieing out enmass, we are next, can't be soon enough
the crap in arizona created for diversion by both parties for
midterm elections to keep everyone voting centrist. Democracy Now
seems to have been told to keep dissent down, Holder , a contributing
writer of the Patriot Acts ,who always said they didn't go far enough is
now our attorney General and finishing the job, Ron Paul more than likely
a fake and a fraud, Kucinach is what I was always afraid of , amouse
Sanders sucks, The whole Truth Dig blog site sucks, thank God there
are a lot of honest souls here on Common Dreams so even though we are
screwed , at least I found out there are other sane souls in the world
you couldn't write this story, all black leaders suck except Farakan , All
white leaders suck, we have no leadership, they are stupid greedy assholes
and jesse jackson turned to be just like them, they groomed their negro well
Sharpton running around with Newt, what happened to Van Jones, blacks sure
ain't gonna save us either never thought they would, they a bunch of rednecks tooo
kieth olberman, cute and funny girl and Cris YOU ALL SUCK as bad as O'Rielly
you mothers wear combat boots the Gulf is Dead and so are we and I hope
as I predict , that the Climate Collapse will see man gone soon
>>
all black leaders suck except Farakan
<<
King and Malcolm are dead, but they weren't bad.
How about the very much alive Cornel West?
Otherwise, I'm with you 100%. Well... except that I'm rooting for an asteroid the size of the planet Mercury. It would be less excruciating and quicker than climate collapse.
kent..........as long as all homo sapiens are under the direct hit of said asteroid and all other creatures are safely on the other side of the planet so they can continue without us................(dreaming)
If you've read Stephen King's 'The Stand' you'll catch this reference. Mother Nature may become pissed off enough that before long she'll release a "Captain Tripps" on us.
kent.........i've read 'the stand' but it was about 20 years ago (can it be that long?) and all i can remember, it was about good versus evil...........i know it was really scary when i read it..............
"Captain Trips" was the slang name the people gave to the killer virus that killed most of the people on the earth.
i'll have to read it again............(or re-write it with a new name of captain Bloody Pathetic)
*To hell with the lingering slow death.
BP is the Jack Kevorkian of the planet with a quick fossil fuel death injection from below !
I now return you to your regularly scheduled guzzling.*
I read "The Stand" a long time ago too. What I recall is that in a post-apocalyptic world, we need people who know how to grow things, people who know how to build, fix machines, people who know how to heal the body and spirit...most of the rest is superfluous. I would add that we need teachers and people who know how to nurture the young. Certainly do not need bankers and stockbrokers.
In any case, it is thought provoking - evaluating what activities matter.
Joe
I've been wanting to read this book again for a long time. It came out in 1978 and I read it shortly after. While I don't remember it very well after all these years I do remember the effect it had on me at the time. I found it frightening and for some reason felt it should be required reading, and so after I finished the book I lent it to my sister and never saw it again. It's time for a re-read.
There's also a reference in the original "Day The Earth Stood Still," that earth would be "reduced to a burned-out cinder" if we kept going the way we were at that time. Of course, that movie was an answer to nuclear technology and our dropping of the bombs, etc., and, of course, was no very complimentary of the Army, which refused to participate in the making of the film. However, I never felt that the alien was warning that we would be destroyed by other aliens due to our actions, but that humans would destroy the earth.
"...But if you threaten to extend your violence, this Earth of yours will be reduced to a burned-out cinder. Your choice is simple. Join us and live in peace, or pursue your present course and face obliteration. We shall be waiting for your answer. The decision rests with you."
The film won a special award for it's message of peace. Anyone watching this film would understand why the rising MIC wanted nothing to do with it.
BABOON--Would you address the question posed to you up thread please?
That the US Government repeats BP figures shows that Industry and Government are still colluding to deceive the public .
The "Outrage" is for Public Consumption.
For the past few days I have been making arguments here using an insider oil flow estimate that was leaked shortly after the 'official' rate of 5000 bbl/day was announced.
The government agency responsible, along with BP, created an internal document marked 'not for public release' that tallied the oil flow at 25 000 bbl/day.
It now appears everyone was off by a *considerable* margin.
A flow rate of 56 000 to 84 000 bbl/day (averaging 70 000) means that we have already seen the equivalent of 6.44 Exxon Valdez spills.
Almost six and a half Exxon Veldez size spills in twenty three days. So far. And there is no guarantee the containment plan is going to work, or if they will ever be able cap this beast.
It is a complex problem - you need to know the pressure and energy gradient along the length of the well casing and riser pipe, pipe roughness, fluid viscosity, whether it is turbulent or laminar flow, the propeties of any restrictions and crimps along the pipe, but yes it is a lot more than 5000 bbl a day.
Its kind of difficult to take that a technology company can drill few thousand feet below sea level and take out natural minerals, at the same time they can not figure out what the rate at which it is spilling out when things go bad !!
Didn't they measured their production rate while things where going "smooth" ? How difficult to measure a volume once you know the size of Pipe and the rate at which the liquid/gas if flowing thro it ?
Once again, as usual, citizens are kept uniformed till they forget !!
And yea, Its hard to believe NPR, most of the time they seem like following script given to them or staying within "limits".
right... how'd they know to drill at this particular point...? how much does it cost to drill an exploratory...? sure... i'm sure many come up empty... but... your point is spot on... they weren't drilling at this particular point because sarah palin said so... they had millions in engineering data before the drill ship ever arrived...
I want every mental defect who professed the virtue of unregulated free-markets or chanted "drill-baby-drill" to be forced to eat a plate full of shrimp from the Gulf every single freakin' day.
You going to pay for them?
what... the price of shrimp from the gulf... is going UP...?
Salazar and Obomber are also responsible for their fraudalent permit process.
Only 10% of the oil is EVER recovered from a spill.
And this gusher is worse than a spill because it is also destroying all the deep water life.
The robotic subs could attach a few things to measure the flow, one being a flow propeller.
The extra long winter and the extra strong spring winds, up to 70mph, here, are making me think of end time.
I always assumed that if the world "ended" by fire according to legend it would be the result of nuclear bombs and war, or maybe a comet ... but now it looks like the wounded, bleeding Earth could go up in a giant fireball from released oil and methane.
Actually I am praying for Mother Earth with gratitude for her gifts, lessons that we are at one with all life, and for forgiveness.
At least the methane being released will dissolve in the ocean because of the depth of its release. It's a small consolation to be sure.
Humans are driving themselves full speed into an evolutionary dead-end. We are destroying planet Earth along with her earthlings, innocent and powerless against the human juggernaut of "civilization" and "green environmentalism."
Everything we do takes the lives of other animals--dismissed as unvalued lives, devalued lives, except in terms of human benefit, enjoyment, profit. We consistently and morally fail to realize that what we do to the animals and their world we reap what we sow.
Despite Copernicus, despite Darwin, the notion that animals and the "human environment" [sic] exist essentially for humanity's sake resonates throughout the popular environmental movement. It seems only fair and decent that the radical Animal and Earth liberation movements mock the folly of this notion, but such belated protests would carry more weight if they were offered in a spirit of some penitence and humility. Folly it must be that values the whole world and all its sentient beings as humanity's plaything ("game animals"), or property ("livestock"), or resources ("timber")--but it has also been a GRIEVOUS folly for those who have had to suffer it. Humanity suffers least the folly inflicted on others when it affects humans not at all. "Those who believe absurdities will commit atrocities." Indeed. "A sharp distinction between humans and 'animals' is essential if we are to bend them to our will, make them work for us, wear them, eat them--without any disquieting tinges of guilt or regret...."
With apologies to traditional indigenous peoples, humanity is unfit to "rule" the world.
>With apologies to traditional indigenous peoples, humanity is unfit to "rule" the
>world.
The "traditional indigenous peoples" are humans too, identical to us. They are just living a sustainable lifestyle - though, not by choice! - and one that is far too close to nature for most of us.
That said, I, for one, don't consume more than I usually need. My Western "lifestyle" is also not by choice - I was born into this society!
But, it's not just an individual's level of consumption, it's also an increasing world population: every three years, a population the size of the U.S. is added to the planet, and each one of those individuals must be clothed, fed, educated, entertained, and provided with health care. Then there's the fact that sanitation, medical science, and abundant food - for some! - has caused humans to live far longer than nature "planned", so even if someone consumes at a modest level throughout their lifetime, their total consumption could exceed that which is sustainable.
I suppose, the root of the problem is that we are just far too intelligent; and we are applying our intelligence in ways nature never "intended". We are now existing, effectively, outside nature, in a world created by our imagination, and can a species that is outside nature, living out a fantasy, really last long?
>>
But, it's not just an individual's level of consumption, it's also an increasing world population: every three years, a population the size of the U.S. is added to the planet, and each one of those individuals must be clothed, fed, educated, entertained, and provided with health care.
<<
Wait for it, wait for it... some self-proclaimed expert is due to jump in any second now and explain why you are wrong, citing such arguments that all of the earth's population could fit inside of Texas, and blah blah blah. And, to that I say bullshit, Malthus was correct! And so are you.
Of course their lifestyle is by choice the Pueblos hold land in common and everyone is cared for. As Shadow Dancer said some even refrained from plowing so as not to tear the Mothers skin. Yes, very very much of indigenous lifestlye is by choice, what do you think they did not have the wherewithall to be greedy idiots?
rodent, suggested reading, Dave Foreman "Confessions of an Eco Warrior", Buck
The far-right wingnuts are already trying to pin the blame for this mess on ELF (some are suggesting that ELF rented a N. Korean submarine).
Anyone who knows ELF understands that their MO is not to make things worse than they are, to remove the problem, not create new problems.
Hey fellow posters! You do not need to worry about this oil spill being 10 to 14 times worse than we have been told, because Goebbels on the propaganda, news network said that the chances of this ever happening again is practically nil. And oh, you can relax now because they are telling the sheeple that oil is good for the shrimp as they like to eat oil and that will eventually clean it up. Also, to quote B.P. CEO Tony Hayward: " This oil spill is tiny compared to the vast ocean ". Keep on drilling, baby...you betcha!
As I mentioned the other day, I've had a very bad feeling about this accident right from the beginning. My intuition, which has seldom failed me, says that this is very serious, much, much more than is being talked about. Everyone seems to be going about their business as if this is just another accident that will be fixed and we'll all move on.
What if it can't be fixed? What if it takes years to stop? What if it's much larger than they say? This gusher could change everything.
If I were President, I'd have these rapists hanging inside a cages on cranes over the polluted water and make sure they were working on the problem constantly by phone and computer with the action of lowering them in the water every couple of hours when no positive results happen. The BP chair says to judge this corporate "person" by efforts, NO! Judge by results which so far have been minus zero. Put Transocean and Halliburton execs in separate cages close by. Any threat from ANY other country or ideology in the past 40 years is paltry in comparison to this. All you people crying "socialist" paying attention? This is what corporate America will do for and to you. Bend over.
These greedy corporations and their well bribed senators have been lying to the American people for generations. Now we are looking at an Exxon Valdez size disaster every four days. I expect the seafood and sandy shores of the Gulf and East coasts to be gone for many generations. It's time to Boycott BP and their 'elected' officials.
>>
A computer program simply tracks particles and calculates how fast they are moving. Wereley put the BP video of the gusher into his computer. He made a few simple calculations and came up with an astonishing value for the rate of the oil spill: 70,000 barrels a day -- much higher than the official estimate of 5,000 barrels a day.
<<
>>
Eugene Chiang, a professor of astrophysics at the University of California, Berkeley, also got a similar answer, using just pencil and paper.
Without even having a sense of scale from the BP video, he correctly deduced that the diameter of the pipe was about 20 INCHES. (caps mine)
<<
MSNBC has been showing a video of the oil gushing from one of the 'leaks'. They said on Thursday that the opening they were showing us is 31 INCHES in diameter. This rather critical bit of information has not since been repeated. I used the 31 inch figure in my own calculations.
A cylindrical container (or a pipe) 31 inches in diameter filled to a depth of (or holding a length of fluid) of .3062 inches contains one gallon of any fluid. A one inch depth (or a one inch length of pipe) would contain approximately 3.25 gallons of fluid. If the well is flowing 24 inches per second out of a 31 inch diameter pipe, then 6,739,200 gallons per second are being lost into the open ocean. Supporting computation follows.
1 gallon of any fluid occupies 231 cubic inches of volume
(See: http://www.ilpi.com/msds/ref/volumeunits.html).
volume 'v' = 231
pi = 3.14
radius 'r' = 31.5/2 = 15.5
inches 'h' = computed value
v = pi*r*r*h
231 = 3.14*15.5*15.5*h
231 = 3.14*240.25*h
231 = 754.385*h = (754.385*h)
231/754.385 = (754.385*h)/754.385
231/754.385 = h
.3062 inches = h
Therefore, one lineal inch of pipe 31 inches in diameter divided by .3062 inches per gallon contained is equal to approximately 3.25 gallons contained per lineal inch (3.26584 to be a bit more precise).
One can only estimate the flow in inches per second when watching the video. I arbitrarily chose a figure of 24 inches per second, although to me it appears to be more than that. Maybe it is less.
At 3.25 gallons per lineal inch of columnar flow, and assuming a flow rate of 24 inches per second, an amount of fluid (oil & gas combined) equal to 78 gallons per second is escaping into the environment. 78 gallons per second times 86,400 seconds per day is equal to 6,739,200 gallons per day. A 12 inch per second flow rate equates to 3,369,600 gallons of fluid per day. Call it three million.
MSNBC now reports that 'experts' are estimating up to 70,000 barrels per day escaping from that well. 70K barrels times 42 gal/barrel is equal to 2,940,000 gallons per day. Call it three million.
If we knew the exact diameter of the pipe, and if we could obtain an accurate flow rate in inches per second, and both figures should be easily obtained from BP, even though they are telling us there is no way to do so, we could determine precisely the volume of oil and methane gas combined escaping into the open waters of the gulf.
Recalculation using a 21 inch diameter pipe:
r = 21/2 = 10.5
v = pi*r*r*h
231 = 3.14*10.5*10.5*h
231 = 3.14*110.25*h
231 = 346.185*h = (346.185*h)
231/346.185 = (346.185*h)/346.185
231/346.185 = h
.6672 inches = h
.6672 inches length of 21 inch diameter pipe contains 1 gallon of fluid.
1 inch/.6672 inches per gallon = 1.4988 gallons per inch
1.4988 gallons per inch times 12 inches per second is equal to 17.9856 gallons per second. 17.98 gallons per second times 86,400 seconds a day is equal to 1,553,472 gallons per day. If the flow is 24 inches per second, the total volume per day would be 3,106,944 gallons per day. Call it three million.
Eugene Chiang, a professor of astrophysics at the University of California, Berkeley, estimated 2,940,000 per day. Call it three million.
This is not rocket science. It is 7th grade algebra.
The esteemed PHD agrees with me, a graduate of the eighth grade.
BP says there is no way to measure the flow accurately.
Either, no one at BP has more than a sixth grade education, or BP is lying.
re: your last sentence...........
probably both...................
Thanks for crunching the numbers, Kent. And while there are differences, the ongoing "mud volcano" in Indonesia created by drilling for NatGas is still going strong after 4 years! http://www.phschool.com/science/planetdiary/archive10/volc1030810.html
What can a person say...
Time for us to use the tar and feathers on the idiots who were chanting 'drill, baby drill'. Oil execs first!
Thank you.
Someone slowing a digitization of the video should be able to determine the flow fairly well.
"We've said all along that there's no way to estimate the flow coming out of the pipe accurately," said Bill Salvin, a BP spokesman.
Therefore, he'll stick with the wildly inaccurate estimate until their spinmeisters can come up with a new lie.
"We've said all along that there's no way to estimate the flow coming out of the pipe accurately," said Bill Salvin, a BP spokesman."
there's no way to estimate
there's no way to estimate
there's no way to estimate
there's no way to estimate
there's no way to estimate
there's no way to estimate
there's no way to estimate
WHERE... pray tell... then did they get ANY estimate?
there's no way to estimatethere's no way to estimatethere's no way to estimatethere's no way to estimatethere's no way to estimatethere's no way to estimatethere's no way to estimatethere's no way to estimatethere's no way to estimatethere's no way to estimatethere's no way to estimatethere's no way to estimatethere's no way to estimate
Lived like us Indians and this wouldn't have happened. The destruction of the earth, and man by his own hands is spoken all through our Native prophecies, the Prophecies of the Israelites, and other peoples as man is not wise enough to live upon the earth as wisely as the Tribes and other peoples lived with wisdom upon Creator's earth.
There were some Tribes that would not even plant/grow food because they thought planting & growing food was destructive to Creator's earth. In the Prophetic Word everything is always right on time & things are exactly as they should be upon the earth as the Prophetic Word foretells man destroying Creator's earth, and himself by his own hands.