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Global Warming Hike May Be Steeper: Research
PARIS - Global temperatures could rise substantially more because of increases in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere than previously thought, according to a new study by US and Chinese scientists released Sunday.
A woman looks at a giant globe at the Bella Center in Copenhagen on December 16. Pledges tabled so far at the UN climate talks for curbing greenhouse-gas emissions would doom the world to warming of as much as three degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit), an internal UN memo showed Thursday.(AFP/File/Attila Kisbenedek) The researchers used a long-term model for assessing climate change, confirming a similar British study released this month that said calculations for man-made global warming may be underestimated by between 30 and 50 percent.
The new study published online by Nature Geoscience focused on a period three to five million years ago -- the most recent episode of sustained global warming with geography similar to today's, a Yale University statement said.
This was in order to look at the Earth's long-term sensitivity to climate fluctuation, including in changes to continental icesheets and vegetation cover on land.
More common estimates for climate change are based on relatively rapid feedback to increases in carbon dioxide, such as changes to sea ice and atmospheric water vapour.
Using sediment drilled from the ocean floor, the scientists' reconstruction of carbon dioxide concentrations found that "a relatively small rise in CO2 levels was associated with substantial global warming 4.5 million years ago."
They also found that the global temperature was between two and three degrees Celsius (3.6 and 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than today even though carbon dioxide levels were similar to the current ones, the statement said.
"This work and other ancient climate reconstructions reveal that Earth's climate is more sensitive to atmospheric carbon dioxide than is discussed in political circles," said the paper's lead author, Yale's Mark Pagani.
"Since there is no indication that the future will behave differently than the past, we should expect a couple of degrees of continued warming even if we held CO2 concentrations at the current level," he said in the statement.
The study was published on the heels of a 12-day UN conference in Copenhagen that was aimed at providing a durable solution to the greenhouse-gas problem and its disastrous consequences but was labelled a failure by critics.
The meeting set a commitment to limit global warming to two degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit), but did not spell out the important stepping stones -- global emissions targets for 2020 or 2050 -- for getting there.
The British study released on December 6 had also researched the Pliocene era, between three to five million years ago.



33 Comments so far
Show AllFaster still. Every new piece of data speeds the time frame of catastrophic change. Feedback loops continually compound. Much is being said. Nothing is being done.
Exactly, talk lots of it and no action , in short were fucked.
Those of us worried about GW have been saying: the uncertainties in the science and its consequences could as easily be BAD as GOOD. This study indicates that that is indeed the case.
They don't get it... we need to just stop- stop everything... Someone on the news said if we did that that people would starve. WEll, if we all had a real brain and a real heart, then there would be a way, a way to set people up. Just spread the supply around with money that the rich keep hoarding and figure out ways to set everyone up with a plot of land and others with craft jobs, like pottery etc.
It would have to be worked out but we could do it... we could do it. But there are just those that have all the luxury and they will not give it up. They will go down, clutching them in their dying hands....
But I know we won't stop. WE'll keep on spewing the stuff into the atmosphere and the tipping points will kick in-then people will starve anyway... die of thirst, disease will spread, violence will be the way to get what you need to survive...
We may have crossed the tipping point already. Regardless, we all should be reducing our footprints. Most reject any change to a simpler lifestyle. I embrace it as it brings me closer to Nature.
Actually, we can live quite sophisticated lifestyles and have small carbon footprints. Taking the bus or trolley downtown to a concert, opera, stage performance, or art exhibit, and a fine meal before or after (preferably vegetarian), produces very little carbon.
It is peculiarly USAn that "sophistication" is associated with burning fossil fuels and using internal combustion engines.
"Getting back to nature" usually requires a lot of driving, and greenhouse gas emitting. In fact, cutting back on outings 120 miles out of town (I used to do a lot of hang gliding) is one thing I've done to cut my carbon footprint back
Yes, cities can be the most efficient, multi-family buildings, walk or public transit, stores and entertainment close by. I am most comfortable in the forests, so my perspective originates there. Through the years I have burned much fuel, the footprint of my guilt. Now, I walk when possible and am done voyaging. Where I help is rejection of stuff, don't need nor want much. The stuff is a pain and just gets in the way.
A lecture from this past week's American Geophysical Union annual meeting.
Richard Alley lecturing on CO2 role on Earth's climate over last 4 billion years.
http://www.agu.org/meetings/fm09/lectures/lecture_videos/A23A.shtml
About 57 minutes.
Brian Brademeyer December 20th, 2009 5:18 pm -- Alley's lecture requires more scientific sophistication than I have, at least to absorb his reasoning in one sitting. But I keep wondering why we have to look at ice cores and other kinds of cores, and speculate about how much warming results from changes in the earth's orientation toward the sun and how much from CO2, when a simple experiment could be done in which identical contiguous greenhouses could be built, one to be filled with CO2 and the other without it, and the effects of solar radiation observed and measured directly. Wouldn't that settle the matter?
Additionally, I remain in the skeptic camp with respect to the claims that, unless we humans put a stop to GHG increases, the earth faces catastrophe by twenty, fifty, or a hundred years from now (the sooner the predicted catastrophe, the more my skepticism). GHG's clearly are continuing to increase in the atmosphere notwithstanding the recent apparent slow-down in instrument-read temperature rise and melting of sea ice. Won't the increased study of this subject provide compelling, and relatively easy to understand, empirical evidence within a very few years about whether a failure to somehow reverse the amount of GHG's in the atmosphere will lead us into catastrophe, and how soon? [This comment was edited.]
The general abdication of leadership at Copenhagen looks like a bus driver in traffic hustling back to a padded seat at the back of the bus.
Brace, you-all.
Someone please forward this report to the contemptible left-denialist Alexander Cockburn.
Please read his breathtaking piece of utterly unscientific gibberish here:
http://www.counterpunch.org/
Then send your thoughts to Counterpunch about it.
Someone please forward this report to the contemptible left-denialist Alexander Cockburn.
Please read his breathtaking piece of utterly unscientific gibberish here:
http://www.counterpunch.org/
Then send your thoughts to Counterpunch about it. As a now-former supporter of Counterpunch, they will be hearing from me by phone.
Yeah, as far as i can recall, Counterpunch had no or very little coverage of Copenhagen. I also note that a couple of its regular writers are paleo- conservatives, many of whom view the UN as some kind of spearhead in a New World Order facilitated by global warming policies--you know like they're going to tax not only carbon emissions but the air we breathe. etc.
Over the past 5 years a 20% decline in those americans believing in the global warming may be accountable to the movements like the above, and their natural corporate allies.
Cockburn is a certifiable leftist, but I think that he enjoys his 7 liter power stroke - powered RV, and cant handle the cognitive dissonance.
He wrote a pair of denialist rants a couple years ago, but the staff apparently was able to keep him quiet for a while. This one beats them all in it's hacked e-mail waving, without substance, idiocy. Read it!
Jeffery St.Clair just put out a piece on the Copenhagen summit; he thinks global warming is a bunch of crap. Usually he's good on other subjects. Wonder who is paying him.
I have no idea who this Jeffery St.Clair is, nor am i planning to find out. Interesting to see tho, how when he's not in agreement with your views, you assume he's paid by someone. Maybe the guy has access to data you haven't seen yet, Try not to judge people so fast.
What's the link to that article? I always thought St. Clair was supportive of the concept of anthropogenic global warming. Maybe I am wrong, but I'd like to read that article. thanks!
I wouldn't have believe it had I not seen it with my own eyes. And to think that I had considered supporting the website.
All you need to read is the initial 'conspiracy theory' that corporate interests, chiefly nuclear, are propagandizing for the carbon global warming movement.
Any thought that the corporate muscle behind nuclear power is using global warming as it's vehicle in the way he implies is insane. Traditional and entrenched corporate interests are by majority, firmly on the fossil fuel bandwagon. Yes, there may be some backing of nuclear energy options for a small handful of rich buddies in the nuke business, but thats small fries compared to what is invested in fossil fuels and he knows that. Numbers don't lie, all you have to do is compare dollars from big oil and gas etc to nuclear...no contest. Follow the money, thats all you ever have to do.
Then he jumps even further into ignoramusville by implying that these same interests are powerful and influential enough to sway almost the entire scientific community into supporting them.
Soon he will be stumping for Jesse Ventura.
Ya know pjd412, i completely agree with you about your critique of Cockburn. It's incredibly frustrating. I worked in paleoceanography for five years. I specifically did research on sea surface water temperatures, in direct relation to atmospheric temperatures over the past million years. Most in the field recognize anthropogenic warming as a serious issue.
I find it ironic that you look towards the science here, but refuse to look at the science behind the 911 issue. I've given you the highest quality of research there in another post, yet you sound like Cockburn when it comes to 911.
But, I do agree that the issue of climate change is far more serious. I look to Murray Bookchin's work on ecology and anarchism for hope in future movements. But unless we can all have an open mind about all the data, we only see a small portion of the clues for a free future.
"They also found that global temperatures were ...even though CO2 levels were similar to those today."
Every time a new study comes out the predictions are more dire than any previous estimates.
We are in deep shit. This time we have really done it to ourselves, and we keep on fighting wars that can't be won, The rich keep getting richer, the suffering of life on this planet is already beyond anything ever dreamt of and people act like this is only one of a number of problems that we have---IF IT EXISTS AT ALL.
We can't hope to stop when we don't even really care or believe.
Maybe the unconscious consensus is that it is time for us to go.
I am deeply skeptical about global warming as a serious phenomenon - not least because of all that has been revealed in recent months, but also because the Earth has to be pretty damn stable to have survived as long as it has - and no, I don't mean 6000 years! Life on Earth has survived vast volcanic eruptions in India, and several impacts with asteroids. All will have produced vast quantities of CO2 (the latter because of the huge fires it initiated over large parts of the globe).
People say, "yes but physics tells us that CO2 absorbs infrared". Yes, of course it does, but it is one of a number of greenhouse gasses, and if the situation were really that clear, there would be no need for fancy computer models to demonstrate the effect.
I am tired of hearing that all scientists agree about global warming. Most, obviously express no expert opinion because they are not climatologists. Of those that do class themselves as climatologists, it is remarkable how many of them seem to have no relevant qualifications, for example Rajendra Pachauri himself is an expert in railway engineering! Even the UK's David Kink is an expert in surface chemistry.
Someone made the comment about Copenhagen that it was typical of politicians. Faced will lots of serious problems that need fixing, they all gather in great luxury to debate an imaginary one!
Of course the Earth will survive. The question is whether the species that now inhabit the biosphere will survive. The central question it whether human civilization, or even the human species, can survive.
As for the scientists, the ones that study climate are overwhelmingly in agreement that we face catastrophe unless we seriously mitigate our activities. Niggling about details demonstrates ignorance of the process - we're talking about mass scale events, not local weather. What you believe doesn't matter. Your belief has no effect on the laws of physics. Stop believing in gravity and you will still get hurt falling off a roof. The only thing imaginary about climate change or global warming is your imagining that it's not real.
David Bailey December 21st, 2009 5:26 am -- I'm sympathetic to your skepticism, although your reasons for it seem weak. You might want to check out the lecture by Richard Alley suggested by Brian Brademeyer:
http://www.agu.org/meetings/fm09/lectures/lecture_videos/A23A.shtml
That will give you a good lesson in the complexities of the science, which says something about the futility of trying to argue the subject with non-scientists.
I think the crucial claim of the warmists is the "tipping point" or "imminent catastrophe" argument. The global temperature trend since 2005, not mentioned by Alley as far as I could tell, clearly puts any tipping point farther in the future than would have been predicted in 1998 or 2005. The degree of understanding of this will increase each year as more observational evidence comes in. Meanwhile, warmists, based on incomplete evidence, think the sky is falling. And they refuse to recognize middle ground in this matter -- either you're with them or you're against them. (Where have I heard that before?)
The power needed to run the internet is significant and is growing rapidly worldwide. In total it takes the equivalent of several 1 gigawatt power plants (probably burning coal) to power the internet. Anyone who wishes to help stop global warming should turn off their computers right NOW!
kayaker December 20th, 2009 9:00 pm
"Anyone who wishes to help stop global warming should turn off their computers right NOW!"
After you.
I understand Iceland is in the market for those massive servers. Power there has no carbon footprint, since sitting on diverging tectonic plates gives them more geothermal energy than they can use.
Meanwhile power requirements go down with every computer generation.
And stop farting too! Methane is a greenhouse gas.
CO2 and Methane are undeniably greenhouse gases that insulate and, together with a balance of oxygen, water and the sun etc., make life on this planet possible.
Why would anyone think that pumping millions of tons more of it into the atmosphere would have no effect?
For every action there is a reaction.
I can see the ideological flaw in this argument already, so relax everybody, there is no need to worry about anything.
I believe, glory!
You see the world is only 6000 years old according to those special people -the evangelical fundies that make up a goodly portion of the USA.
So talking about what happened 4.5 million years ago is clearly heresy and nonsense. Emails are proof too.
Hallelujah!
How high is the water, Momma?
And: how high is the water gonna get?
Glug...